10 Things You NEED TO KNOW Before Week 1 (2026 Fantasy Football)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
58 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 7, 2026
Published
Mon, September 7, 2026
28
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Adam ThielenBaker MayfieldBryce LanceChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian WatsonDalton KincaidDalton SchultzDJ TurnerDK MetcalfEmeka EgbukaGeorge KittleIsaiah LikelyJ.J. McCarthy
Player analysis
Player insights
Adam Thielen
NegativeProjection34:16
Scott notes that Zay Flowers' efficiency drops significantly without play-action, ranking 41st in yards per route run, tied with Adam Thielen, when play-action is removed from the equation.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeProjection41:46
Baker Mayfield is noted for playing through injury last season, which contributed to Tampa Bay's late-season struggles.
Insight pageBryce Lance
PositiveSleeper37:07
Derek Brown identifies Bryce Lance as a deep-threat sleeper option for DFS and prop bets, projecting he could haul in a long target for a touchdown against Detroit.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveProjection41:11
Derek Brown projects a strong performance for Chris Godwin, stating he is going to 'eat' this week because he faces a slot corner on a defense that allowed the fifth-most yards per target to opposing slot receivers.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveMatchup37:01
Derek Brown recommends starting Chris Olave, citing the high-scoring potential of the Saints-Lions game and the Lions' struggling secondary, which allowed high deep-passing production last season. Olave is a primary target for deep passing production.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout16:44
Derek Brown identifies Christian Watson as the most valuable player in the Packers-Vikings matchup. The Vikings' defense struggled against deep passes last year, ranking fifth-worst in EPA per pass on balls thrown 20+ yards, making Watson the primary beneficiary for explosive opportunities given Jordan Love's elite deep-passing efficiency.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage18:22
Derek Brown anticipates a breakout for Dalton Kincaid, potentially reaching a 60-70% route share. Kincaid was the TE5 in PPG last year despite a 40% route share and led all tight ends in separation, route win rate, and first downs per route. While Brown notes the Bills' coaching staff's reliance on Dawson Knox and Jackson Haw creates some uncertainty, Kincaid is a strong Week 1 start against a Houston defense that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends late last season.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeValue40:51
Dalton Schultz is identified as a late-round tight end option for fantasy managers who waited to draft the position.
Insight pageDJ Turner
PositiveUsage65:48
Derek Brown highlights DJ Turner as an elite shadow corner who limited top receivers like DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson to minimal production last season; he expects Turner to excel in a contract year.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeUsage0:46
Derek Brown views DK Metcalf as a strong Week 1 play against Atlanta due to their high single-high coverage rate, where Metcalf posted a 28% target per route run rate and 2.38 yards per route run last season. Conversely, Scott remains skeptical, labeling Metcalf overrated with pedestrian efficiency and ranking him as WR45 for the week. Brown notes Metcalf's production often falls off after opening drives and suggests Michael Pittman Jr.'s presence might help by drawing coverage, though he wants to see more consistent performance before fully buying in.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeMatchup40:46
Derek Brown is 'insanely worried' about Emeka Egbuka due to a tough shadow matchup against DJ Turner and poor historical performance against single-high safety coverage; Egbuka posted only 1.36 yards per route run against single-high looks in weeks one through five last year.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeValue22:21
Derek Brown identifies George Kittle as a preferred draft target on Sleeper and Yahoo platforms. However, Kittle's status for Week 1 is uncertain, and Brown notes he is not currently 100% healthy.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeUsage35:18
Derek Brown expresses curiosity regarding how Isaiah Likely's target splits and usage change specifically off of play-action compared to his standard usage.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeDepth Chart21:41
Derek Brown notes that the quarterback competition between the starter and JJ McCarthy lasted longer than expected, describing the bar for winning the job as 'really low'.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
NegativeBust27:47
Derek Brown advises against starting Jakobi Meyers in Week 1, citing the high-level performance of Cleveland's perimeter defense when Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward are on the field.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection41:54
Joe Burrow is expected to have a high ceiling if he remains healthy, supported by the best defense he has had in his career.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveMatchup7:55
Derek Brown identifies Jordan Addison as a beneficiary of the Week 1 coverage matchup, noting that expected two-high safety looks from the opponent create a favorable environment for his role in the offense.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection15:35
Derek Brown views Jordan Love as a strong play against the Vikings' blitz-heavy scheme. Despite the difficult matchup, Love ranks seventh among 37 qualifying passers in yards per attempt and EPA per dropback versus the blitz over the last two years. With pass catchers like Tucker Kraft returning, Love is well-positioned to exploit the Vikings' weakness in defending the deep ball.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection7:52
Derek Brown explicitly states he is fading Justin Jefferson for Week 1. While Jefferson was the only wide receiver to surpass 70 receiving yards against a specific coverage scheme discussed, Brown provides no further statistical justification for the fade beyond the general team matchup context.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeBust7:02
Derek Brown recommends fading Kyler Murray in Week 1 against Green Bay due to his poor performance against two-high safety coverages, where he ranks in the bottom tier for yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback since 2023. Additionally, Brown labels Murray a 'sell high' candidate after October 23rd, citing historical production drops coinciding with the release of Call of Duty, and notes his height (5'9") limits his ability to target the middle of the field effectively.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveUsage43:02
Kyren Williams is a must-start against the 49ers, who struggled significantly against the run last year, ranking poorly in rushing success rate and hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeValue40:54
Mark Andrews is mentioned as a late-round tight end option for managers who waited to draft the position.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveUsage5:09
Derek Brown and Scott view Michael Pittman Jr. as a valuable short-area outlet receiver who complements DK Metcalf. Pittman's ability to get open immediately on shallow routes makes him a strong fit for Aaron Rodgers' current playstyle, and his presence may benefit Metcalf by forcing defensive adjustments.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout27:43
Derek Brown expects Parker Washington to have a breakout performance in Week 1 against the Cleveland slot corner, Miles Harden, citing Harden's poor coverage metrics from last season; Washington is considered a must-start and an 'Exodia' wide receiver.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveUsage65:03
Derek Brown recommends starting Travis Etienne, noting that his role is bolstered by Alvin Kamara's current injury status.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveValue18:07
Derek Brown views Travis Kelce as a high-value target, noting he secured him in the eighth round. Kelce remains a reliable asset in formats prioritizing first-read targets, as he is guaranteed to command those looks regardless of physical decline. Brown also ranks Kelce ahead of Dalton Kincaid for Week 1.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveValue22:21
Derek Brown identifies Tucker Kraft as a key component of his draft strategy on ESPN, noting the value he provides at his current draft position, though he questions his startability compared to other options.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveMatchup32:03
Derek Brown and Scott highlight Zay Flowers as an elite receiver against all coverage types, specifically noting he destroys single-high coverage, which the Colts utilize on nearly 65% of snaps. Flowers posted a 27% target per route run rate and 2.85 yards per route run against single-high looks last year. While his efficiency is tied to Lamar Jackson's play-action usage, his versatility across X, slot, and Z positions makes him an underrated stud with high touchdown potential.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00The NFL regular season is upon us and we are ready to rock with an NFL week one fantasy preview with Derek
0:07Brown of fantasy pros. He writes this monster primer every single week.
0:20If you're a returning subscriber, you already know what makes this the best fantasy football channel on the planet.
0:25So hit that like button. If you're new here, subscribe, turn notifications on so you never miss a daily show that helps you win your fantasy league. All
0:34right, let's get into it. I'm going to skip the pleasantries with Scott. If you weren't aware, I had to take a vacation
0:39last week after just two weeks of doing the show with Scott. I it led me to just getting out of here for a week. So
0:46we'll just skip that. Hi Scott, how are you? Deebo, let's jump right in. DK Metcalf for single high coverage.
0:52They're playing the Atlanta Falcons.
0:54What do you got here?
0:55Sorry man, what >> I want to see how long we can go the timer before Scott actually says the word. He's going to mess this up now
1:01that I've called it out, but >> [laughter] >> Dude, I this has been a thing with with DK Metcalf over the last few years. Like
1:09if you go all the way back to like his Seattle days, the monster splits between single and two high have always been there. And so
1:17last with Pittsburgh, it was still a thing. And the reason I want to point this out because this is a fantastic
1:21match up for DK. Like the weeks 12 through 18, Atlanta you had the fourth highest single high rate in the entire
1:28NFL. And a lot of times we get into the weeds, new defensive coordinators, new defensive personnel, you like some of this stuff gets noisy.
1:36But despite the fact that the Falcons brought like got a new head coach, they brought back the same DC. So I think
1:42there is stickiness to this. And DK Metcalf last year against single high boys, 28% target per route run rate, 2.38 yards per route run. So while I'm not a
1:53big fan of Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf over the totality of the season, I do think he cooks in week one.
2:01>> Very nice. You know, not to get way into the weeds in the Falcons defensive thing. It is funny they brought back
2:05Jeff Ulbrich. The only reason I'm assuming they did that is because their defensive personnel is so unique. Like it was built for him to run it. So, like
2:15to expedite kind of getting this ship off the ground, it seemed like keeping him in tow to kind of lead this group of
2:22I mean, they don't have a single edge rusher on the roster over 250 lb.
2:27At least they didn't until they signed Zadarius Smith, sorry. But yeah, that just I found that really interesting.
2:32So, Scott, where you at on DK Metcalf? I will welcome you to to speak now on your show. But here we are.
2:39>> [laughter] >> Damn, I thought we were going to get the 5 minutes.
2:42>> Yeah, so obviously, yeah, this has long been a sick DFS cheat code is you really only play DK Metcalf in single-high
2:50matchups over the last 3 years.
2:522.35 yd per route run against single-high, 1.79 against two-high.
2:59That being said, I I really have no interest in DK Metcalf this week. Like what I do for start sits, especially
3:05week one, is I really kind of don't move off of, you know, I I kind of just start guys based on my rankings for
3:12the most part. Unless, of course, you know, there's there's a clear injury we have to make note of or, you know, maybe
3:18I'll upgrade the old guys a little bit more. But this one, yeah, DK Metcalf was a hardcore fade for me. So, he was my
3:26wide receiver 45 in my redraft rankings.
3:30I'd start him as like, I don't know, like a high-end wide receiver four this week. I will say, hey, Chris Wacht best
3:35projections in the industry last year.
3:38He disagrees. He has DK Metcalf like fringe top 25.
3:43>> Oh.
3:44>> So, yeah, maybe maybe Debro and Chris know better than me. And I I this is just off-season take lock. But uh
3:53Yeah, I will say, you know, hey, Aaron Rodgers is the healthiest he's going to be all year.
3:58Uh if he's if DK is going to go off, it's going to be in this matchup.
4:02>> Okay, that's fun.
4:04Um S- Scott, what's your what's your big downside case for DK?
4:09>> I just don't think he's very good. I think he's probably the most overrated >> I agree with that.
4:13>> wide receiver in football. If you look at his ass, it's really pedestrian. I think he is who we kind of thought he
4:20was coming out or he's just like freak speed score, you know, the size, speed, you know, great deep threat, uh but zero lateral
4:29agility. Had one of the worst three cones ever and one of the best speed scores weight-adjusted 40 times ever.
4:35And I just feel like that's who he is.
4:36Like he Like look at what he did last year. He just was a deep threat, and then I think he housed one screen, and that was about
4:43his entire year, although he had, you know, uh among the best target volume of any player. You know, when I was diving
4:51into the weeds of Fantasy Points Data 2.0, where uh you could break things down by drive, DK Metcalf had like the
4:58second or third highest target share in the first drive of the game, and then it just fell off a cliff after that. They
5:04like really tried to get him involved in the game plan, and just nothing was working. I I'm a Michael Pitt- I mean,
5:10I'm really a no one guy on the Steelers, but if I'm a guy a fan of anyone, it's it's Michael Pittman, who
5:17um I think Aaron Rodgers at this stage of his career, he just needs a a quick outlet, someone who can get open
5:23immediately, uh short shallow routes, and that's Michael Pittman, at least who he's been historically. That's not DK Metcalf.
5:31>> So, I I have to wonder if the presence of Michael Pittman helps DK Metcalf, right? Especially against some of this,
5:38you know, off cover three he's going to see this week against Atlanta, where he's got corners lined up 8 to 10 yards
5:44off the ball. He has access to all that underneath hitch and comeback type stuff, which then gives him access to the the you know, vertical plane. So, I
5:52do I do think Pittman's presence probably actually helps DK in the type of receiver DK is, but >> That's certainly possible, but I really
5:59feel like the burden of proof is on DK and I need another week or two before I I buy into it.
6:05>> That's where I the way that I read them the the addition of Michael Pittman Jr.
6:08is they're perfect compliments each other. Like I mean, you have DK who has these splits against >> Yeah, but what is the more valuable role
6:14in fantasy? It's the the shallow route PPR.
6:18>> When you get a two high heavy team, yeah, it is. Like but I think that they're going to be coverage specific.
6:23Like these two guys are going to rotate back and forth.
6:25>> Yeah, hey, that's that's a fair point.
6:27That's probably that's probably what it's going to be.
6:30Um so, yeah, like I mean, if you drafted DK Maca- Metcalf, like this would be the spot to play him.
6:36But if you followed my draft guide, you didn't draft DK Metcalf. I'm pretty sure that was the smart move.
6:42>> All right, let's move on to uh Debro's ninth thing here. Kyler Murray versus Green Bay.
6:49Um Green Bay is going to sit back and play a lot of two high, right? I mean, they were top 10 in the league in two
6:55high last year. Look towards the back half stretch, a lot of two high. What do you got here, Debro?
7:01>> Dude, first of all, I mean, going to his first game for the Minnesota Vikings against his former head coach, who if
7:06there's anybody out there and before we get into the coverage stuff and go down narrative street for a second, if there's anybody out there that is
7:12innately in tune and aware of what Kyler Murray is good at and what he sucks at, you got to think Jonathan Gannon is,
7:19man. And the fact that he is not good versus two high, I think is going to stand out here. So, I think Kyler is
7:24probably in for a long day. Since 2023, Gannon has utilized two high at the third highest rate in the entire freaking NFL. And if you got Kyler,
7:33shout out Diaz too here, last two seasons amongst 31 qualifying passers, 14th lowest yards per attempt, 13th lowest highly accurate throw rate, and
7:43the ninth fewest fantasy points per drop back versus two high, that's Kyler Murray. So, fade Kyler Murray week one, I'm fading Justin Jefferson ipso facto.
7:54If you look at the two highest splits, it's actually a good coverage match up for Jordan Addison if this stuff holds,
7:59and I think there is some stickiness again going back to this because KOC's been running this offense, so I think you're going to see some of those trends
8:07also stick especially in week one. But, Kyler Murray, yeah, no not not here for it.
8:13>> To be honest with you, I um I'm curious like Green Bay's defense is just I mean, no Micah Parsons, no Rashan
8:21Gary. Where are they getting the pass rush from?
8:24Um they're still I know they made some some acquisitions at corner especially through the draft and Brandon Cease.
8:30But, I'm just like where are they getting the the high-end play making from on this defense? Is it Is it the
8:35only question I have to where you know, sure they might play a a ton of two high, but Kyler should basically
8:41have his will with where he wants to go with the football. I think it's a it's a really interesting call.
8:46>> So, uh I'll say Chris kind of agrees with you, Brett. Uh I'm looking at the projections right now and he's our QB
8:53nine. He's like a full fantasy point per game above Drake May, above Caleb Williams, and it's not like this was Chris's Exodia by the projections. He
9:03was maybe slightly higher than ADP, so clearly there's something Chris likes about this match up. Um and I I I think
9:11you know, there's the benefit of the doubt here on on KOC just when we've seen every quarterback who wasn't J.J.
9:20McCarthy smash in this offense. It was Kirk Cousins, it was Sam Darnold, it was Nick Mullens. Like this is one of my
9:26favorite stats, Nick Mullens, the the podcaster from [ __ ] Town, started three games with uh Kevin O'Connell and he threw for
9:35303, 411, and 396 passing yards. It's like what? 380 passing yards per start?
9:44Joshua Dobbs freaking got traded >> oh, baby.
9:48>> Got got got traded mid-season on a Tuesday.
9:52Then on Sunday, doesn't even start, drops 27 fantasy points. And then 5 days after that, 25 fantasy points. And then another QB1 finish. And so, yeah, I
10:03don't know. It's just Well, also, why don't you explain for the folks at home the difference between single high and two high and and why
10:10that matters?
10:12>> Yeah, so you asking me or Debro by the way? I don't want to be rude to the guest. Okay.
10:17>> you're the the >> No, [laughter] I was I I was going to add on after this. I figured that was a
10:21Brett question, so.
10:22>> Yeah, better way to describe it would be middle of the field closed or middle of the field open. So, single high coverage
10:28is a middle of the field closed coverage shell and that usually it aligns with you know, cover one or cover three or
10:34some variation of cover three and there's a lot of them. And then middle of the field open or cover two or sorry,
10:40two high is cover two, four, or six. And again, several variations of all those coverages. So, um the the two high shells that we're
10:49seeing in the NFL are very soft in the middle of the field. So, your in-breaking routes, your underneath routes typically have a lot more
10:56success. They're protecting the boundaries and they're protecting deep.
11:00And they're basically trying to give their defensive line time to get home.
11:05And so, you see a usually a lower A dot against two high shell, but you see a much higher completion percentage
11:10typically.
11:12Um except in the case of Kyler Murray, apparently. [laughter] >> I was just going to say, so basically you're outlining a defense that's going
11:19to ask Kyler Murray to do all the things that he doesn't like to do. He can't see over the offensive line. He doesn't
11:25target the middle of the field. I think we're going to see a fundamentally because everything you outlined there, Scott, with KOC and previous
11:32quarterbacks. None of that's wrong. The only caveat to all that is all those quarterbacks are taller than 5'9. So, yes, they can run a KOC offense. I think
11:42we're going to see a different version of the Vikings offense this year. I think you're going to see them much more
11:45run heavy. They're going to be using a lot of play action, a lot of downfield stuff, and that's not going to be
11:51I mean, yes, there's a reason of like talking about Green Bay not having a pass rush. I absolutely agree with that.
11:56But, Brett, you've also made the case with mobile quarterbacks of basically rush contain of like sitting back. And if you force Kyler Murray to
12:05play from the freaking pocket, is that a good thing?
12:10>> Yeah.
12:11>> Mhm, it's a great point.
12:12>> Let's also not forget, I believe Kyler Murray is J- Gen Z Jay Cutler, which is just that there's no gap there
12:22at all.
12:23Do you all remember when it got worked into his contract that he needed at least 3 hours of of film study
12:30per week in order to trigger like $5 million, and then he got bullied into removing that clause. But, you have former coaches and former teammates
12:40coming out against him like, "Bro, you don't want this guy on your team." You know, he's a great runner, he just never
12:45wants to run. And so, the most recent thing out of Minnesota is like, you know, he's he's never late, but he's
12:53he's never there a second early, and he's he's never, you know, he he leaves as soon as you know, it's a final bell. And yeah,
13:02so I don't know. I It also seemed like, yeah, he beat out J.J. McCarthy, which is like a really low bar. But, like, if
13:08you follow the beat writers, like, it seemed like a real competition for >> It was a real competition.
13:13>> way longer than it should have, so >> It was like Kyler had his worst practice, and then they were like, "Oh,
13:19no, we can't So, we got to stop this. We got to stop this." He had his worst practice, and then they went out and
13:23named him the starter like the very next day. And just for everybody out there, Kyler's a sell high after October 23rd
13:31because that's when Call of Duty comes out this year.
13:34>> [laughter] >> There you go. Yeah, you know, you notice something about that. Every October his fantasy points per game drops, but his K
13:42to D skyrockets.
13:43>> Yeah, my K to D or baby.
13:44>> What is What is K to D? Oh my Did you just pull a kill to death ratio comment?
13:49>> Yeah, K to D or baby.
13:50>> Come on. I didn't know uh >> Olds will know.
13:53>> Oh my god. [laughter] The olds.
13:58Woo. Uh another feather in your cap on this one, Debro, is the The over/under in this game is 46. That's a That's a
14:04relatively high implied point total.
14:07Um that definitely, you know, I don't know. That it's It's just kind of middle ground actually looking at these. There's a lot of high point
14:14totals this week. Holy crap.
14:15>> There are a lot.
14:16>> Um All right, let's move on.
14:19Uh same game, Jordan Love versus the Minnesota blitz. This is a fun one because um Minnesota likes to just go mugged A
14:26gaps and blitz all day long and Brian Flores is still defensive coordinator with the Vikings. So, what do you got here?
14:32>> Dude, I think a lot of people are going to look at this on its like for face value and say, all right, fine. Let, you
14:38know, Harrison Smith is back. Brian Flores is still going to do Brian Flores things. You look at how they closed last
14:44year, weeks 12 through 18, the Vikings defense gave up the seventh fewest yards per attempt, third lowest passer rating.
14:50And they're going to say this is a really bad match up for Jordan Love.
14:53Until you look at, okay, yes, we know what Brian Flores is going to do. He's led the entire freaking NFL in blitz
14:59rate of the last 2 years. And even if you go further back, it's still there.
15:03So, there's proof in the pudding. In that same uh 2 years, Jordan Love amongst 37 qualifying passers ranked seventh in yards per
15:12attempt and EPA per dropback versus the blitz. So, I think Jordan Love is actually as long as like he has some
15:19modicum of time to diagnose this like with all of his pass catchers healthy, Tucker Kraft is back and stuff like that. He has cooked
15:26defenses versus the blitz over the last few years. We know what Brian Flores going to do. I think this is a really
15:32good spot for Jordan Love.
15:33>> This is actually maybe the game I'm most excited for.
15:37>> Same.
15:37>> You highlighted the two quarterbacks here. You've also got um good friend of Fantasy Points Data, good good enemy of of PFF, JJ Watt
15:47calling this game, great announcer.
15:49Um and so I was looking at this and I think like the entire game really comes down to whether or not Green Bay's
15:57offensive line can buy Jordan Love enough time to exploit Minnesota deep.
16:02Uh and and with that probably that's that's probably going to be Christian Watson, our guy, Debro. Um but Green Bay's offensive line really struggled
16:10last year, you know, dealt with a number of injuries in the second half. They were a bottom 10 pass-blocking offensive line.
16:17Um Minnesota's defensive line easily best in the league by by pressure rate over expectation or any other metric you want to look at. But so
16:26basically the Viking's defense looks elite everywhere. They have an elite pass rush, an elite defensive coordinator. If they had one weakness,
16:33it's defending the deep ball. Last year they ranked fifth worst in EPA per pass and balls thrown 20 plus yards in the
16:40air. On all other throws, they were top seven. And that's right in Jordan Love's wheelhouse. Only Matthew Stafford has more deep passing yards than Love over
16:50the last 3 years. No quarterback has a higher percentage of their total yards coming on deep passes. And so I I like
16:56Christian Watson's odds of I mean hey, if if Matthew Golding's a thing this year, it we'll find out I think in week
17:02one. Um but I would be putting my money on on potentially Christian Watson being uh the single most valuable player in
17:10this game.
17:12>> What about for the Scott Bearball?
17:14>> Why did you draft him in the Scott Bearball?
17:16>> I didn't, but I it's implications here because of the way we score the Scott Bear Bowl, Scott, with the separation,
17:23the explosive plays. Yeah, I mean >> In in our format, ass is more valuable than touchdowns. So >> Yeah, there's no points for touchdowns,
17:32actually.
17:33>> That's right. If you guys don't know about this, we we did a fantasy league.
17:38Brett and Debro are both in it. Where the scoring is based on our charted data. So it's like, yeah, PPR is is
17:44cool, but a missed tackle force per point per missed tackle force league is way more fun. So you guys can follow
17:53along. I put a tweet out about it a couple Scottbearbowl.com. There you go.
17:57>> You made me paranoid. I had to just double-check and make sure I wasn't on the clock right now.
18:02>> [laughter] >> My last comment on Scott Bear Bowl, somehow I got Travis Kelce in like the eighth round. The way we score tight
18:09ends is first read targets.
18:11>> Yeah, so >> That's all he gets. [laughter] That's all he gets. He could be as washed as he wants to be as long as he gets first
18:16read targets, I'm good.
18:17And we know he's going to. So it's it is what it is. All right, let's move on.
18:22Houston versus tight ends. I'm going to guess you're going to tell me Dalton Kincaid's about to smash Houston's defense just because it's the only
18:30exploitable angle here against Houston's defense, but go ahead. [laughter] >> that's all I got. Like like just if you look at this from just a common sense
18:38standpoint before we get into the numbers, do you want to challenge Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre? No, you don't want to do that. So
18:47I think with Dalton Kincaid, plus like this could be the year we finally get Dalton Kincaid unlocked in a 60 or 70%
18:53route share. This would be the match up because again, like I know that they added Reblanchette on the back end in
18:58the off season, but if you look at how the Texans closed last year, again, like the only spot that you can moderately
19:05attack against that freaking defense is with the tight end. Weeks 12 through 18, Houston gave up the seventh most receiving fantasy points per game and
19:14the 11th most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends. So, yes, I think that this is a really good spot for Dalton Kincaid because again, you
19:21don't want to go out after those corners. The linebackers are good, but if Dalton Kincaid is moving around the formation, there is spots for him to sit
19:28here and definitely cook this defense.
19:30>> Yeah, I I don't know why I want to pick on you, Debro, and or just play devil's advocate on everything you're saying,
19:36but >> I love it.
19:37>> this is what we call a tight end funnel match up, right? Like where else will the ball go?
19:43Um and and it really only makes sense for it to go to Dalton Kincaid. Maybe maybe James Cook gets a little more
19:49targets, but yeah, certainly Dalton Kincaid, who by the way uh ranked third best in yards per route run last year. It went Puka Nacua, JSN, and
19:58then Dalton freaking Kincaid. Um but you know, even though it's a tight end funnel spot, it's still a tough match up
20:06on paper, I think. Like uh Houston ranked top 10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends. And then also it's
20:13like wishful thinking. If you drafted Kincaid, you're hoping he gets a higher route he's a full-time player. You're hoping for that. But that's something I
20:21I typically want to see before I buy into it. So, if he goes off on my bench, to me that's like
20:28a special treat, you know? But it's not it's not something I want to be uh you know, putting putting stakes on, putting
20:36my money on this week.
20:37>> But didn't you just outline earlier too >> that when the guys are most healthiest and the guys you want to play at the
20:43very beginning >> of the season isn't Kincaid walking into the season possibly at his healthiest? Would this be the time for them to up his route
20:51share?
20:51>> That's a great counter argument, yeah.
20:53>> Yeah, just asking.
20:54>> Just asking the questions, Scott.
20:56>> [laughter] >> But Scott's also pounded the table for Kincaid all off season, so I don't know.
21:01>> I It's not hard to like Dalton Kincaid when he was first in everything last year, dude. Like you look at every tight
21:07metric. He was first in separation, yards per route run, route win rate, first downs per route. Like, everything you look at.
21:14>> Scott, we had this argument because last season last off season I was all in on Kincaid. You clowned me for that take. I
21:21You ended up being right, and then somehow you flipped to my side now. So, I don't know >> [laughter] >> I don't know how we landed here, but
21:28>> He's He's someone I've struggled with.
21:29He's He might be like the single most upside wins championships tight end I can remember, where it's really like, okay, he
21:38I have a bunch of stats on this. Read my tight end rankings article, but it's It was something like, if you just exclude
21:44games he was on the injury report or left the game early with an injury, he was tight end five by fantasy points per
21:50game, and he did it with a 40% route share. And it's like, if he maintained his yards per route run and had an 80%
21:57route share like Trey McBride, he would have had like 1,600 receiving yards. And so, yeah, it's just The argument against that, by the way,
22:06if you're wondering why he wasn't an an Exodia, is because I think they like Dawson Knox. I think they like Jackson Harris.
22:12I don't think they fully trust him as a blocker.
22:14Although, we've heard some encouraging things. He's someone I've just really struggled with, but I don't know. I think you've done a good job of selling
22:21me where, you know, my my draft strategy this year was Tucker Kraft on ESPN, George Kittle on Sleeper and Yahoo. I like that value,
22:31but like both of them, you know, this is probably the reverse of Dalton Kincaid, where this is like the least close to
22:38100% they're going to be all year. So, maybe maybe that's the play. Ultimately, I'm just going to default to Chris's projections cuz he's
22:44He's an uber genius. Um but, >> Yeah. [laughter] How How does he have Kincaid projected for week one, by the way?
22:50>> Yeah, let's Let me pull it up.
22:52>> He's a Kincaid hater, if I'm not mistaken, so >> is, yeah.
22:55He's a all projections guys would the uh the haters.
22:59>> you You're literally like your butt's puckering and to make a median projection for a guy that might have a 50% route share, but maybe has a 70%
23:06route share.
23:07So, like I I definitely get the pain there.
23:09>> Yeah, he has he has him tight in 18.
23:11These are unofficial, by the way. Not By the time you're listening to this, it'll probably be official on our site, but
23:18uh Chris is probably burning the the midnight oil to to get this published.
23:22>> tight in 18?
23:23>> Yeah.
23:24>> Mhm.
23:25I I I'm going to disagree with Chris on that one.
23:29But Uh for those that haven't figured it out, by the way, we we also are like we've asked Eric to bring not obvious
23:36things to the table.
23:37>> yeah. Yeah, screw the low-hanging fruit.
23:39>> Yeah, we're not telling you to start Ja'Marr Chase. You know, kick rocks if that's the analysis you want, I guess.
23:44>> Yeah, and if you're if you're looking for me to tell you to start Tyler Warren, you've come to the wrong
23:47freaking show.
23:48>> Yeah.
23:48>> D- Debro's the best, and like I respect him so much as an an analyst. Like it's never like he's saying something wrong.
23:55It's just like I get it, but you know, I might I might lean the other way because I >> I want the pushback. I like the
24:01conversation. I want the pushback.
24:03>> I love arguing. So, I I'm going to lean towards that anyway. Yeah.
24:06>> I mean, it's it's either this on a show or it's you and me texting at 1:00 a.m.
24:10So, it's it's [laughter] one way or another we're fighting. So, >> Scott, I I like the Kincaid call specifically because of you, actually.
24:17That's what's so funny cuz you don't like it, but I like it cuz cuz your whole strategy was a Tucker Kraft, was a George Kittle late because
24:25the the values on them were were there.
24:27But, if you did go that route, you had to draft another tight end for safety, and you Kincaid is on that list, 100%.
24:34So, >> An elite tight end, too. But, it's like do do I feel comfortable starting him tight end one over Tucker Kraft, over I don't know.
24:43>> Is Kittle playing week one?
24:46>> I mean, he's flying out to Australia.
24:48>> But, if you had somebody like a Jake Ferguson, or you waited and you had a Dalton Schultz, or a Mark Andrews, or
24:55one of these other guys, like >> you Yeah, [ __ ] up your pick and you took someone who sucks.
24:59>> YEAH, YOU WAITED ON TIGHT END. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE GOING TO CALL THAT. WAITING on tight end, Scott.
25:06>> All right.
25:06>> Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts, Juwan Johnson, Colston Loveland, Tucker Kraft, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Harold Fannin,
25:17uh Travis Kelce, all guys I I'd start over. Dalton Kincaid, but then he's probably right there.
25:23>> Yeah.
25:25All right, let's move on.
25:27Cleveland pass D versus uh Well, I Debro's going to break down how they fare against perimeter wide receivers and slot wide receivers.
25:34And Jacksonville's a a tough puzzle to crack because we have three receivers we kind of like that ADP. And one of them
25:40is one of Scott's Exodias. So, Derek, why don't you break down this match up for us?
25:45>> Dude, I love this match up cuz I think we're going to see Parker Washington absolutely cook in week one, baby. Like
25:49if you look at this match up and >> specifically cuz if you were to take the 100-ft view of the Cleveland pass
25:55defense last year, you'd be like, "Oh, it it's it's not bad for Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers. Like, let's fire
26:01them up. Flex plays wide receiver three, four, what have you?" But if you look at specifically just the eight games where
26:07Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward were on the field together, full-time players, then you realize there's no way in a hell that I'm playing Jakobi Meyers or
26:14Brian Thomas Jr. Because in those eight games, shout out to the again, shout out to the S2, in in those eight games, they only
26:21gave up 1.43 fantasy points per target perimeter wide receivers, 7.24 yards per target perimeter wide receivers. If you put that number across the entirety of
26:31the overall season, they would be those would be the third lowest marks in the NFL.
26:38And then it's like, okay, well, Brian Thomas Jr., his field-stretching role that he finished last year with, okay, look at the same sample size of eight
26:45games. Again, this is not like some three-game sample I'm pulling out and saying, "Oh, let's project that over the whole freaking season." It's eight
26:53games. They only give up a 31% completion rate and a 73.1 passer rating to deep passes. So, Brian Thomas Jr. deep passes? Nope. Perimeter
27:03wide receivers versus Cleveland? Nope.
27:05And then we look at their slot corner, Myles Harden, and good lord, Parker Washington is going to beat him up and steal his
27:13freaking lunch money, man. It's going to happen in week one. Like Harden on a per route basis last year gave up a 71.9%
27:20catch rate, a 119.3 passer rating in coverage. You look at 34 qualifying slot corners last year, and again, all of this in-depth like corner stuff is so
27:32freaking awesome for matchups. Harden in those 34 slot corners gave up the fifth highest passer rating, the ninth most fantasy points per target,
27:41and the ninth highest step uh rate of step of separation. So, all this means is Parker Washington smashes. Don't start Brian Thomas Jr. or Kobe Myers. No
27:50way in hell.
27:52>> Yeah, if I were James Gladstone, I'd really be sweating right now just because, you know, all off-season they were engaged in
28:00contract negotiations.
28:02>> You try to get him to sign that before week one, dude.
28:04>> price of the brick going up ASAP.
28:08>> It is.
28:09>> Um and so yeah, yeah, obviously you're starting the Exodia wide receiver, Parker Washington, but I I want to make a a
28:16little note here on on BTJ, and I think this is a a Debro tweet. He is like one of the most grueling
28:23first half schedules I can remember for a wide receiver one. So, like he was not a a a a target in drafts for me, but he he
28:32could be a a pretty good mid-season buy low. Debro, do you do you remember what his gauntlet looks like?
28:40>> It is god awful. And again, if you go to the Shadow Index in DST when it's live, you will see
28:48everything I'm about to lay out here.
28:49Bro, it is horrible. Okay, let's just walk Brian Thomas Jr.'s schedule for Okay, we just described week one. Week two, Patrick Surtain shadowing him. Week
28:58three, Christian Gonzalez. Week four, DJ Turner. Week five, Quentin Johnston and Tariq Woollen. Week six, Oh, I haven't even started yet, Brett. Let me get
29:05warmed up, [laughter] baby. Week six, Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. Week eight, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. Week nine, the Baltimore Ravens
29:13pass defense. It is not until you come up for air at week 10 that Brian Thomas Jr. gets the Tennessee secondary, then
29:21the Giants, Tennessee, Chicago, Pittsburgh.
29:25It is a laundry list of shadow corners and horrible secondaries he has to go against until week 10. I'm telling you
29:33right now, Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be one of the most dropped players in all of fantasy in the first five or six
29:37weeks of the season. He's going to be the poster boy on every buy low article that is written after week nine.
29:45>> It sounds like he might play himself even out of that.
29:48Like people are going to be scared to buy low cuz there's there's not going to be anything there.
29:51>> Because it's going to be god-awful. It's going to be horrible, man.
29:54>> That's a tough schedule in general for the Jags, something we maybe should have considered with some of our other analysis, but like I I've been very high
30:02on Trevor Lawrence this off season.
30:04That's a that's a really tough early, you know, early season schedule there.
30:07So >> But to this point though, Brett, this is why I've kind of come around on Britain Strange this off season. I bumped him up
30:12in my ranks when I was going through the schedule and I was like, okay, if it's this bad for Brian Thomas Jr. and it's
30:18this bad probably for Zay Jones on the outside, okay, then we're even more on it and on Parker Washington and I think Britain
30:24Strange, who was by the way, top 12 in first downs per route run and yards per route run, he just didn't get the target
30:30volume. Maybe Britain Strange is going to be one of those late round tight ends that comes out of the the woodwork.
30:36>> Uh one other note on the Cleveland pass D is they don't have Myles Garrett anymore. That actually changes things.
30:42Cornerback is the most uh year-over-year the most flimsy position.
30:48Like you can't It's really hard to predict what a cornerback is going to give you year-over-year statistically. A lot of times a really good season for a
30:55corner is merely It's It's like literally inches. The difference is inches or or tenths of a second. And when you lose a player like Myles
31:03Garrett, the long-term effects that has on a cornerback room cannot be understated.
31:09And I I think some of these guys could could end up struggling long-term.
31:15Uh Denzel Ward has been kind of up and down with Myles Garrett, you know? So So without Myles Garrett, what does he look
31:21like?
31:22Um you know, we know Tyson Campbell has also been a very up and down player. So very curious to see how the secondary
31:27works out in general. They're obviously already weak in the middle with um Myles Harden as the nickel cornerback. So I I
31:34love this call. Ex- Uh Parker Washington earned his Exodia status, by the way, when he bet on himself and refused to
31:40sign extensions they were offering him.
31:42He's like, "Nah, I'm getting way more than that after this season." So love that about him.
31:47Um number five on the list here. You have Zay Flowers versus single high. The Colts are uh you know, they play a lot
31:54of single high. What's going on here?
31:56>> So I think the biggest things and this is one of the more smaller sample things, but again we're trying to get
32:01into the tea leaves and understand what's going to happen probably in week one. Just looking at last year because we don't we got such a small sample of
32:08Sauce Gardner in this past defense. But in the two games that that the Colts did have Sauce Gardner, dude, they utilized
32:15single high on almost 65% of their defensive snaps. That's a massive number, dude. And And I just don't think that people understand that
32:23Zay Flowers he is a We're talking about as God's here. Bro, he's amazing versus every coverage. He destroys freaking single high. 27% target per route run rate,
32:322.85 yards per route run last year against single high. I think Zay's going to come out and a lot of people could be
32:39like concerned about Sauce and Charvarius Ward if he plays and what have you. I think Zay's going to have a wonderful day.
32:46>> Love that. Scott, what about you?
32:48>> Yeah, yeah. In in full agreement. Uh Zay Flowers good against every coverage type. One stat I had that I thought was
32:56really interesting, Brett, that I would love to pick your brain on is I I called Zay Flowers a play-action merchant because I I looked at
33:06the the stats on him and he ranks fourth best in yards per route run on plays with play-action over the last 3 years.
33:16Uh without play-action, he falls to 41st tied with Adam Thielen. It's like really, really bad. The good news is the
33:26uh Ravens had a lot more play-action in preseason. You heard Declan Doyle, all the coaches talk about wanting more play-action. And if
33:35that what we saw in preseason holds true to the regular season, they're going to be jumping from a below-average rate to
33:42a top-three rate. Uh I'm going to guess that you're going to say this is a Lamar Jackson stat.
33:47>> That's where I was going.
33:48>> Either way, to hear your explanation for this, Brett.
33:51>> Yeah, mostly a Lamar stat, but I think the the finite details there are that like all of Zay's big plays downfield
33:58are usually coming on some type of scramble drill off a play-action where Lamar's you know, it's the also the way they do
34:05play-action is a little different. It's not like a a Ben Johnson style or Sean McVay style where the QB's under center and they're
34:12booting him out and cutting the field.
34:13That's That's not really what they do with Lamar.
34:16More It's like seven-step off of play-action, and so you get a lot of, you know, scramble drill opportunities with with Zay and and Lamar, and they
34:23have a good connection there. So, there I mean, I can think of two just like 60-plus yard plays last year alone for from Lamar to Zay off a play
34:32action that are definitely inflating those numbers.
34:35>> Yeah, I was going to say this feels like a Lamar Jackson stat. Now, I'm I'm curious what Isaiah Likely's splits off
34:40of play action are as well, so.
34:43>> Can we just say like Zay Flowers is the most underrated receiver in the league to me?
34:46>> Yes, he is.
34:47>> This guy is a freaking stud. Like >> Yep.
34:49>> He you look at it when DSU comes out, you can see where he lines up on the field, his production. It's consistent
34:56across the board. He plays 33% at the X, 33% in the slot, 33% at the Z.
35:02Yards per route runs relatively the same at all three. The separation score is relatively the same at all three. Scott also just told you he's good against
35:09every coverage type. This dude's freaking awesome. The only thing he doesn't have in his his resume is touchdown scoring, which I think might
35:16change this year. So, I love I love me some Zay Flowers.
35:20Number four, Tyler Shuck versus the Detroit secondary. I'm just going to go on a limb and say no Kirby Joseph, no Brian
35:27Branch, Terrion Arnold's robbing people.
35:30We have no idea what's going on. Detroit secondary's banged up. Go ahead, pick on pick on my boys. What's up?
35:35>> I mean, you you've already given away some of my notes, Brett, but yes, to your point, this also does line up to
35:41and shout out to Tyler Shuck, who I drafted in the Scott Bear Bowl because y'all left the guy with a high catchable
35:47target and a higher over throat rate throw rate. Excuse me, I can't apparently talk.
35:51>> going to be my next pick for what it's worth. You took him away before me.
35:54>> I I was looking at I went back and looked at the scoring and I was like, why is Tyler Shuck still sitting here?
36:00Like there there's something wrong with this. Okay, fine. Bing. So, but yes, Tyler Shuck, I think he's going to have a wonderful week one. If you look at the
36:07again, with Brian Branch out, with Kirby Joseph out. Also, if we look at how Detroit and and this is really I mean,
36:13Brett, you tell me if I'm wrong. They're really returning a lot of the same cast of characters in this secondary. And
36:18when you're dealing with backup safeties, are they going to are they going to have any blown coverages and what have you? And if you look at how
36:24they finished last year, weeks 12 through 18, Detroit gave up the most yards per attempt, the fourth highest CPOE, and they struggled
36:33mightily defend the deep ball. Second most deep passing yards per game, sixth highest pass rating in the deep passes.
36:40If these aren't all Tyler Shuck and Chris Olave's stats, I'll also throw out a a deep pull for DFS people out there.
36:46If you're doing prop bets, Bryce Lance, baby. I think he could take what a long target to the house this week.
36:52>> Yeah, I'm not as I'm not as down on the the secondary as as you are probably.
36:56They They knew Branch and Joseph were going to start on pup. Like that was So they they made, you know, plans to to
37:03not have them. Avonte Maddox last year was a top 15 safety in the league and he he was a starter for them. He's going to
37:09be starting for this, you know, he's starting in the Brian Branch role this week. They brought in Chuck Clark who's been a starter for pretty much every
37:17team he's played for in the NFL. Not a high-level starter, but it's not like they're >> Not to say not a not a good one though,
37:21Branch.
37:22>> They But he's not like replacement level.
37:24He's an above-average player by pretty much every metric you look at.
37:28Even if you want to go PFF grade for God's sakes, which I don't recommend, but you know, you he he's been an
37:34above-average player. So beyond replacement level, point being not a second-string kind of guy, not a bench player. And then DJ Reed was healthy for
37:42all of four games last year. He's back healthy as the number one corner. I do think it helps Christian Izien coming
37:48over from Tampa Bay as well to kind of play a hybrid nickel safety role. Roger McCreary came over from LA. Like they
37:55had they had on Keith Abney. It looks like he was great the preseason, you know, fifth-round corner who should have gone a lot higher. Not saying the the
38:01secondary is going to be good, but it's like I think it's probably average and I you know, that said, you're absolutely
38:09right though. You got to start Tyler Shuck.
38:11If you if you waited on quarterback and you know, or you're looking to you know, you're one of these stream quarterback
38:17streamer types that, you know, do this year to year, it's a great play. Even just from the simple fact that Detroit's
38:22going to score a ton of points in this game and they're going to have to keep up and they have the banged up
38:26secondary. I think Chark could absolutely go go ham.
38:30>> Yeah, I already bet the over on this total when it opened. I think it like 48 and a half. I was like, "Oh, please give
38:34me that total."
38:35>> It's been up to 50, isn't it now?
38:37>> Yeah, it's up in I think it's 50 or 50 and a half now, but I got it at 48 and a
38:40half and I was like, "Oh, yes, please and please and thank you."
38:43>> Yeah.
38:44>> Yeah, you really don't need to say too much more than that. There it's a 50 point over/under. Start everyone in this
38:49game because you have >> Yeah, dude.
38:51>> the Saints are seven point underdogs, Kellen Moore pace of play, Saints defense bad. It's It's either going to be a shootout or they're trailing by a
39:01touchdown and just forced to pass. So, um play Travis Etienne with Alvin Kamara banged up, play Juwan Johnson, play Chris Olave, uh play Jameson Williams,
39:12Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff. I Jared Goff is for sure a start.
39:17So, just about everyone in this game I I think gets to start for me.
39:22>> Boom, I love it.
39:24Uh number three on your list, Emeka Egbuka versus DJ Turner. DJ Turner, in my opinion Derek, last year turned himself into one of the preeminent
39:32corners in the league, top 10 guy for sure, maybe better than that even. Uh he he was fantastic. And Cincinnati has an
39:39improved pass rush situation this year, a little more depth across the D line.
39:44I'm feeling pretty juicy about what they got. What uh what say you here?
39:48>> Yeah, I I think DJ Turner had one of the best seasons last year as a true shadow corner that people do not give him
39:54enough freaking respect because it's Cincinnati Bengals defense and outside of him, it was a whole lot of dog water.
40:00But I think that with the improved situation around him and he's unless I'm wrong here, he's in a contract season too, boys. So, I think he's going to
40:07earn that uh that paper this year and I think it starts here, man. Emeka ran 65 or 63.5% of his routes on the perimeter
40:15last year. I do think that that that number goes up a little bit more. We know he's walking into week one dealing
40:20with a toe issue. DJ Turner last year followed DK Metcalf twice, Justin Jefferson, Romeo Dobbs, Zay Flowers twice, and yes, Gabriel Davis, we'll
40:30throw him in here, too. All of those wide receivers on at least 60% of their routes only and in that sample allowed only one
40:39receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson surpassed 70 receiving yards in his coverage. This is all to say I am insanely worried about Emeka Egbuka.
40:49>> Mhm.
40:49>> Even outside of a DJ Turner shadow, if you want to go deeper into this, Cincinnati used single high at the sixth
40:55highest rate last year when Emeka was at the height of his power, so week one through five, Emeka was like the reverse
41:02DK Metcalf. Against single high last year, he had 1.36 yards per route run in weeks one through five.
41:08This is not a good match up for Emeka Egbuka, but to flip this on its head, I think Chris Godwin is going to eat this
41:14week. I think going against their slot corner for Cincy, again, a defense that gave up the fifth most yards per target
41:20to opposing slot receivers, I think Emeka has a down week and I think Chris Godwin eats in week one.
41:27>> Love it. Scott?
41:28>> Yeah, I think I think DBro nailed it.
41:30Yeah.
41:32>> One thing This is actually one of my favorite matchups of the week, you know, the week one slate. It's two teams that are are looking for
41:40revenge on what happened to them last year. Baker played through the injury and the and the wheels just completely fell off in Tampa.
41:46You know, Burrow was hurt yet again last year and and they just fell short of a playoff run, so um I think both these teams have a chance
41:54to win their division, actually, quite Tampa Bay's obviously the favorite in in the south, but I think Cincinnati is is right in the mix with Baltimore and
42:01Pittsburgh. And with that defense should be taken very, very seriously. I have friends that have predicted them to go to the Super Bowl, so I think that's
42:09that's very fun.
42:10>> The Bengals? Oh, yeah, that's that's my that's my pick, too. Yeah.
42:14Totally with that.
42:15>> Yeah, if Burrow stays healthy, man, sky's the limit for them, so.
42:18>> He's got a defense behind him this year, man.
42:21>> Best defense he's had behind him in his entire career.
42:23>> Easily. Easily.
42:26>> All right, the LA run game versus the San Francisco run D. We've been picking on San Francisco's run D for a while
42:31now. What's going on here?
42:33>> Dude, I I just don't I don't think they made enough substantial additions to the off season, and they were horrible last
42:38year. Like same the 49ers rush defense last year give the highest rushing success rate, the 10th most yards before contact per attempt, and another lovely
42:48shiny new metric in DST I'll point out here. They have the second lowest hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage
42:55last year. So, you're talking about the Rams are just going to have plenty of pathways and room to run. So, obviously
43:02you're playing Kyren Williams. You also need to consider if you're like struggling for a flex in a deeper league or a dynasty league or what have you.
43:10This is one of those games where it looks like it's probably a shootout and what have you and stuff. The Rams,
43:16if they come out and just put up points on the 49ers and they're missing parts or pieces, George Kittle's not 100%. Do
43:23we get Mike Evans in this game? Like at the time of listening to this, like maybe he's going to play, maybe he's
43:28not. This feels like one of those games where also Blake Corum gets like a quiet like 12 to 14 carries and maybe gets in
43:34the end zone.
43:36>> Is it You go ahead, Scott.
43:38>> Yeah, and and let's not forget this is an elite Los Angeles Rams run game.
43:43>> Mhm.
43:44>> The the top running backs last year by success rate, one Kyren Williams, two Blake Corum, who also led in EPA per
43:51run.
43:53Um Yeah, so yeah, I I think this is a good call. I I was going to bring up something separate from this, which was how do you
44:00feel about the Rams flying out to Australia Uh, and landing within 24 hours of the game.
44:10>> I like that.
44:11>> Whereas the 49ers have been there a week.
44:13>> Puka doesn't have a chance to try to chew on anybody. It's a good thing.
44:17>> [laughter] >> What?
44:20It's true. He goes straight from the airport to the game. I mean, who who who who's he nibbling on? Come on.
44:25>> [laughter] >> Who's he nibbling on?
44:26>> One One hilarious thing is every time Ian Rapoport tweets about Puka, at the end of his tweet he leaves in there he
44:32still might face disciplinary action.
44:35>> Dude.
44:35>> Is that going to Like what are we Where are we at on that? Is that going to happen? That's kind of a big deal.
44:39>> So, I I take this as they they released the exempt list and stuff. Puka's name not being on that, that makes me feel
44:47like the NFL has done or at least they have obviously more information than we do. If it felt like this was a situation
44:54where the NFL was worried about the PR department what have you and other things coming out about Puka, I feel like he would have gone on the exempt
45:01list. The fact that he did not and they made it a point to make a statement of nobody else at this time is going to go
45:08on the exempt list, and these things happened earlier in the off-season that all the Josh Jacobs stuff, I think Puka's going to be fine. He's going to
45:15play the whole season. But again, I could be totally wrong, but just trying to read the tea leaves. Like I mean, you
45:21tell me I'm wrong, guys.
45:23>> I don't have a good read on the situation at all, so >> Okay.
45:26>> I don't know.
45:27>> Scott.
45:28>> Yeah.
45:29>> One One other One other note here on the same friend Randy.
45:33>> Um >> You know, they drafted Alfred Collins in 2025 to be their like run stuffing nose and like I liked him in that role, but
45:40he has not developed well. He got out leveraged a ton last year. Was was really a disappointment. Then he had off-season shoulder surgery and from
45:48what I've listened to Kyle Shanahan say, he's like behind. Like he like you know, verbatim he's behind. So, I the other acquisition they made was Osa
45:58Adigizuwa who's a 280 lb three-technique. Like they're going to get blown off the ball in this game.
46:03Grayson Holden the a rookie from Oklahoma one of Scott's athletic freaks that I think he liked even though he doesn't like defensive lineman in
46:10general, but um he liked all the freaky Oklahoma guys this this draft cycle.
46:16You know, >> Shout out to Rhamondre Hightower, >> Yeah, well yeah, well Raheem Morris is back as the D coordinator.
46:22>> Oh, man.
46:23>> So we we're prioritizing these these tiny fat I mean motion man Trey the producer knows all about this. He loves these guys.
46:30Tiny athletic freaks, but they get absolutely blown off the ball and and run D and so uh that we were already picking on this
46:37defense and then you Oh, you also have Keion White recovering from a gunshot wound. So like >> Jeez, man.
46:43>> I don't know. This is a I this is definitely >> Rams are just going to run it down their throat this week.
46:47>> Exactly. Exactly. So All right, the last one for you on today's show is uh maybe this is a little low-hanging fruit. We said we're
46:55not doing the low-hanging fruit thing, but I think this is low-hanging fruit.
46:58Rhamondre Stevenson First of all, Trayveon Henderson kind of is buns and he's a wimp. He's he's hurt and he's a wimp.
47:06He's not going to play through it.
47:07At least I don't think. Tell us what you got on Rhamondre.
47:10>> Uh up against the toughest run defense in football by a lot.
47:15We're starting we're starting a running back up against the toughest run defense in football by a lot.
47:21>> We're starting a bell cow running back because if Trayveon is out, nobody is going to take any work away from him,
47:27Scott, as well as a running back that is going to play in the passing game.
47:31>> What did what did uh what did How many rushing yards did Rhamondre have against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl last
47:37year?
47:37>> 23. I'm looking at it right now, but you want to know how many receiving yards he had, Scott?
47:42>> How many do you bro?
47:44>> 40. He caught all five of his targets, my man, and got into the end zone through the air, Scott.
47:50You know, in PPR leagues that might actually matter, Scott. And you know, for everybody doing napkin math at home in the Super Bowl, that's
47:56>> 18 points.
47:57>> Yeah, I mean that I mean just through the air alone, Scott. Ramondre got 14 PPR points. That's also, you know, we
48:04could just add the 2.3 on top of it what he did on early downs. Although it doesn't really matter, but with Ramondre, yes, you need to go bet
48:11the over receiving yardage. I got it before the Travion news came out, but it's still hanging in the low 20s. Yes,
48:17Seattle is good on the ground versus running backs, but where they really struggle and again, this is going back to two-high coverage
48:25>> and Mike McDonald's defense and what have you. They have not been They They It's not I don't want to characterize
48:32this as they're not good versus running backs. I think that this is just something where they're like, "Yeah, we'll give up short completions to
48:38running backs. That's totally fine." I mean this defense literally gave up the ninth most receiving yards and the most receptions in the entire damn NFL to
48:47running backs last year. And then you also put on top of this Ramondre amongst 52 qualifying backs, guys. 15th in yards
48:56per route run, first in yards per target. So it's not only that he's going to get all the damn work.
49:01If Drake May is under duress, Ramondre is going to catch four to like six passes and if he gets in the freaking
49:07end zone, I don't care what the stat line is. He's probably a top 15 running back this week.
49:13>> Yeah, so this is really one of the most valuable backfields in fantasy historically, the Josh McDaniels backfield. It's It's not from the sense
49:21that there's ever like a guy who's a league winner because it's like almost always a perfectly evenly split 50-50 backfield, but just in terms of like
49:29cumulative XFP, cumulative fantasy points, it's it's always up there with the the top backfields.
49:37But whenever one of those running backs goes down, then we see a you know, massive spike weeks. Last year, Travion Henderson, three games
49:47without Ramondre, >> Mhm.
49:48>> average 24.3 fantasy points per game.
49:51You could go back even further. I remember from the DFS standpoint I think Rhamondre got hurt and then like the most washed, dustiest Zeke Elliott was
50:02like a DFS gold every single week. And so yeah, it's it's you can't deny that. Yeah, I Rhamondre isn't just a start, he's a
50:11must start, a you know, a a mid-range RB1 maybe even low-end RB1, but what if what if what if Trayveon is questionable and
50:23then active? Um how confident are you in Rhamondre who's probably going to get more work than he typically would have, but but not you know, the entire piece
50:33of the pie.
50:34>> I I'm still immensely confident in Rhamondre because I think the thing that people miss on Rhamondre Stevenson because they talk about how good
50:42Henderson is and how explosive he was.
50:45Nobody realizes that that Rhamondre Stevenson was better than Trayveon Henderson in every single discernible freaking metric last year. He had a
50:55higher explosive run rate, he had a higher missed tackle rate, he was better in yards after contact per attempt, he was better in yards per route run, he
51:01was better as a pass protector. He literally was better than him in everything.
51:07So even if Trayveon is healthy, tell me this.
51:10Is Mike Vrabel going to trust Trayveon Henderson on passing downs on a bum ankle in pass pro or to run routes or
51:18protect Drake Maye? Hell no.
51:21>> Well, no, and it seems like he's a little doghoused anyways.
51:24>> Yeah.
51:25>> So.
51:26>> Yeah, so >> Scott, didn't you call Trayveon Henderson one of the worst picks you could make in fantasy all summer?
51:32>> Yeah, I said he was the world's most expensive handcuff which TJ Calkins, my dynasty co-manager had the same exact take independent of me. And we were on
51:43the phone and he pulled that out. I'm like, you know, I've been saying that for I've called him the anti-Exodia for my disdain. And yeah,
51:49like your stats are really good. Damien went off when Ramondre went down, but he also benefited from, you know, those were really soft matchups, but
51:58across the full season sample, games they both played, Ramondre had a 62% snap share, Damien 36%. So, kind of a far cry from the 50/50. In the playoffs,
52:09it was even worse. In the playoffs, Damien averaged like 3.4 fantasy points per game with like a 27% snap share. And then those were the
52:19games that mattered most and like they didn't want him on the field and they were better off not having him on the
52:23field. Look at the when Data Suite 2.0 drops, look at the on-off splits. You know, it's they were clearly a much
52:29better team with Ramondre on the field.
52:32Damien really good at big plays typically from outside zone, which is not the offense that Josh McDaniels likes to run. He
52:40likes a man gap scheme where Ramondre is is much better, much better suited for that that system. So, yeah, yeah, I I
52:48I was giving you a hard time at the start just to kind of tee you up to you know, spike the ball, but
52:54yeah, I'm I'm in full agreement with you here.
52:58>> Awesome. And for the last take of the day, I need Scott Barrett's 2026 metal album of the year.
53:07>> Did Leprous drop an album?
53:10>> They they did actually. It's a >> It is. It is. Leprous for sure, yeah.
53:14>> It's a it's a live compilation. It's a it's Is it like live from Hellfest or something? I don't know. It's really
53:19really freaking good.
53:20>> bunch of metalheads in here. I'm not a metalhead, but Leprous is like my favorite band. Brett showed them to me
53:24and I I think they're they're phenomenal. So, check it out.
53:27>> Now now that it's now that the album's actually out, I can correct my previous statements on this show, Brett, and tell
53:33you that President's album is the album of the year now that it's technically out.
53:37>> Nice.
53:39I'm going to go with Carmen Jakkas' new album.
53:43Um it's it's fantastic.
53:45If you like it's more math metal, guys.
53:47You know, I I we've discovered fully >> Uh you you got your your one out of now it's my turn. All right, guys,
53:55what's your favorite Gilmore Girls episode?
53:59>> [laughter] >> I can honestly tell you I've never watched it.
54:02>> goes back to school and and Todd >> [laughter] >> Of course there's a Todd.
54:10>> I honestly don't know if there is a Todd.
54:12>> Okay, I've never seen it. Um >> Yeah, sure. We all believe you.
54:16>> [laughter] >> Is this like how you could dance more than one too?
54:19>> Oh, yeah, yeah, exactly.
54:20>> What's your favorite daytime soap since we're going off of this topic?
54:23>> Days of Our Lives, come on.
54:26>> Cuz these are the days of our lives.
54:30>> Friends reference, Friends reference.
54:32>> Oh, that's even Fred is the world's biggest Friends fan, which is I It's Seinfeld for chicks, am I wrong?
54:40>> Seinfeld for chicks, bro. Monica, Rachel, like that was I don't know, whatever.
54:46>> Friends is legit, don't you hit on Friends Scott, okay?
54:48>> Yeah, man.
54:49>> Maybe I'll give it another go.
54:50>> I grew up on Seinfeld and Friends. It was like >> Seinfeld's got awful, but Friends was Friends was legit.
54:55>> Yeah, whatever.
54:56>> That's an awful take.
54:58>> No, that's my best take of this entire show. We can get out of here on that >> Scott, Derek's from from New Orleans,
55:03Louisiana. You expect this man to be be into Seinfeld?
55:06>> Hey, hey, hey, Frasier blows them all so far out of the water.
55:11>> Frasering?
55:12>> Best sitcom by far, perfect show.
55:15>> Frasier blows them all out of the water?
55:18>> [laughter] >> That does sound great.
55:19>> That's how you pronounce water correctly this time.
55:21>> No, you you did, that's true. You also got a Mecca Egbo, correct earlier. I was proud of that, so.
55:25>> I was very proud of that, you know, we didn't even get any Quinton Jenkins on this show.
55:31>> [laughter] >> All right.
55:32We got to get out of here. Last reminder before we go.
55:35If you're not currently subscribed to the YouTube, you're missing out. You need to subscribe. You need to turn notifications on. Scott and I are going
55:42to be here every single day. If you saw the announcement on X, this is this is now fact. We'll be here every single
55:47day. This week is going to be crazy. We have data suite two coming out. We're doing a champagne popping bottle live
55:54stream with Chris Wacht, the the architect behind it all.
55:58Um, it's going to be fun. We've got Uh, Scott, are we doing a live draft? We're doing an FFPC main together?
56:04>> know. We'll see. We're running out of daylight here, Brett.
56:06>> do an FFPC main together. I've never done one, so it'd be my first time.
56:10Anyways, huge week. Make sure you have notifications turned on. Debro, thanks for doing the show with us today. Can you tell the people where they can find
56:18your work and this wonderful primer that we're working off of tonight?
56:21>> Yeah, brother. Thank y'all. I mean, shout out to to everything Fantasy Points Data is doing, dude. Like DS2, I've said it before and I'll say it
56:28again, is going to change the absolute game. It's going to put some of these other data companies out of freaking business. It is that damn good, and this
56:36is not just me blowing smoke.
56:39It is absolutely amazing, man. Like I've only I I've only feel like I've scratched the surface of this thing. So, shout out to you and everybody else at
56:46Fantasy Points, man. Like the work that y'all put into this is absolutely amazing. And now everybody's going to get it, uh, you know, reap the rewards
56:53of all y'all's hard work. But, yeah, the primer, man. Um, it will be live Tuesday morning. Already maybe live, depending on when you're listening to this show.
57:02Um, it's my love letter of every single week of the NFL season. It is powered by Fantasy Points Data, um, and has been for the last few years.
57:11So, every sharp insight versus coverage and stuff is really a byproduct of all the hard work that Brett and all the
57:17boys are doing with charting and everything every single freaking week.
57:20So, shout out to you guys. But, yeah, primer will be live every Thursday morning throughout the entirety of the NFL season.
57:26I think this week one version is over 24,000 words. But, if you don't want to read all the 24,000 words, control F and
57:33find whatever players are on your team.
57:36>> [laughter] >> Awesome.
57:38I love that plug at the end. That's great. All right, that's going to do it for us today. Thank you so much for
57:44listening. We will see you on the flip side.
57:52>> [music]
