10 Things You NEED TO KNOW Before Week 1 (2026 Fantasy Football)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
58 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 7, 2026
Published
Mon, September 7, 2026
28
Player insights
28
Players mentioned
Topics
Adam ThielenBaker MayfieldBryce LanceChris GodwinChris OlaveChristian WatsonDalton KincaidDalton SchultzDJ TurnerDK MetcalfEmeka EgbukaGeorge KittleIsaiah LikelyJ.J. McCarthy
Player analysis
Player insights
Adam Thielen
NegativeProjection34:16
Scott notes that Zay Flowers' efficiency drops significantly without play-action, ranking 41st in yards per route run, tied with Adam Thielen, when play-action is removed from the equation.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
NegativeProjection41:46
Baker Mayfield is noted for playing through injury last season, which contributed to Tampa Bay's late-season struggles.
Insight pageBryce Lance
PositiveSleeper37:07
Derek Brown identifies Bryce Lance as a deep-threat sleeper option for DFS and prop bets, projecting he could haul in a long target for a touchdown against Detroit.
Insight pageChris Godwin
PositiveProjection41:11
Derek Brown projects a strong performance for Chris Godwin, stating he is going to 'eat' this week because he faces a slot corner on a defense that allowed the fifth-most yards per target to opposing slot receivers.
Insight pageChris Olave
PositiveMatchup37:01
Derek Brown recommends starting Chris Olave, citing the high-scoring potential of the Saints-Lions game and the Lions' struggling secondary, which allowed high deep-passing production last season. Olave is a primary target for deep passing production.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveBreakout16:44
Derek Brown identifies Christian Watson as the most valuable player in the Packers-Vikings matchup. The Vikings' defense struggled against deep passes last year, ranking fifth-worst in EPA per pass on balls thrown 20+ yards, making Watson the primary beneficiary for explosive opportunities given Jordan Love's elite deep-passing efficiency.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage18:22
Derek Brown anticipates a breakout for Dalton Kincaid, potentially reaching a 60-70% route share. Kincaid was the TE5 in PPG last year despite a 40% route share and led all tight ends in separation, route win rate, and first downs per route. While Brown notes the Bills' coaching staff's reliance on Dawson Knox and Jackson Haw creates some uncertainty, Kincaid is a strong Week 1 start against a Houston defense that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends late last season.
Insight pageDalton Schultz
NegativeValue40:51
Dalton Schultz is identified as a late-round tight end option for fantasy managers who waited to draft the position.
Insight pageDJ Turner
PositiveUsage65:48
Derek Brown highlights DJ Turner as an elite shadow corner who limited top receivers like DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson to minimal production last season; he expects Turner to excel in a contract year.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
NegativeUsage0:46
Derek Brown views DK Metcalf as a strong Week 1 play against Atlanta due to their high single-high coverage rate, where Metcalf posted a 28% target per route run rate and 2.38 yards per route run last season. Conversely, Scott remains skeptical, labeling Metcalf overrated with pedestrian efficiency and ranking him as WR45 for the week. Brown notes Metcalf's production often falls off after opening drives and suggests Michael Pittman Jr.'s presence might help by drawing coverage, though he wants to see more consistent performance before fully buying in.
Insight pageEmeka Egbuka
NegativeMatchup40:46
Derek Brown is 'insanely worried' about Emeka Egbuka due to a tough shadow matchup against DJ Turner and poor historical performance against single-high safety coverage; Egbuka posted only 1.36 yards per route run against single-high looks in weeks one through five last year.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeValue22:21
Derek Brown identifies George Kittle as a preferred draft target on Sleeper and Yahoo platforms. However, Kittle's status for Week 1 is uncertain, and Brown notes he is not currently 100% healthy.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
NegativeUsage35:18
Derek Brown expresses curiosity regarding how Isaiah Likely's target splits and usage change specifically off of play-action compared to his standard usage.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
NegativeDepth Chart21:41
Derek Brown notes that the quarterback competition between the starter and JJ McCarthy lasted longer than expected, describing the bar for winning the job as 'really low'.
Insight pageJakobi Meyers
NegativeBust27:47
Derek Brown advises against starting Jakobi Meyers in Week 1, citing the high-level performance of Cleveland's perimeter defense when Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward are on the field.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection41:54
Joe Burrow is expected to have a high ceiling if he remains healthy, supported by the best defense he has had in his career.
Insight pageJordan Addison
PositiveMatchup7:55
Derek Brown identifies Jordan Addison as a beneficiary of the Week 1 coverage matchup, noting that expected two-high safety looks from the opponent create a favorable environment for his role in the offense.
Insight pageJordan Love
PositiveProjection15:35
Derek Brown views Jordan Love as a strong play against the Vikings' blitz-heavy scheme. Despite the difficult matchup, Love ranks seventh among 37 qualifying passers in yards per attempt and EPA per dropback versus the blitz over the last two years. With pass catchers like Tucker Kraft returning, Love is well-positioned to exploit the Vikings' weakness in defending the deep ball.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
NegativeProjection7:52
Derek Brown explicitly states he is fading Justin Jefferson for Week 1. While Jefferson was the only wide receiver to surpass 70 receiving yards against a specific coverage scheme discussed, Brown provides no further statistical justification for the fade beyond the general team matchup context.
Insight pageKyler Murray
NegativeBust7:02
Derek Brown recommends fading Kyler Murray in Week 1 against Green Bay due to his poor performance against two-high safety coverages, where he ranks in the bottom tier for yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback since 2023. Additionally, Brown labels Murray a 'sell high' candidate after October 23rd, citing historical production drops coinciding with the release of Call of Duty, and notes his height (5'9") limits his ability to target the middle of the field effectively.
Insight pageKyren Williams
PositiveUsage43:02
Kyren Williams is a must-start against the 49ers, who struggled significantly against the run last year, ranking poorly in rushing success rate and hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeValue40:54
Mark Andrews is mentioned as a late-round tight end option for managers who waited to draft the position.
Insight pageMichael Pittman
PositiveUsage5:09
Derek Brown and Scott view Michael Pittman Jr. as a valuable short-area outlet receiver who complements DK Metcalf. Pittman's ability to get open immediately on shallow routes makes him a strong fit for Aaron Rodgers' current playstyle, and his presence may benefit Metcalf by forcing defensive adjustments.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout27:43
Derek Brown expects Parker Washington to have a breakout performance in Week 1 against the Cleveland slot corner, Miles Harden, citing Harden's poor coverage metrics from last season; Washington is considered a must-start and an 'Exodia' wide receiver.
Insight pageTravis Etienne
PositiveUsage65:03
Derek Brown recommends starting Travis Etienne, noting that his role is bolstered by Alvin Kamara's current injury status.
Insight pageTravis Kelce
PositiveValue18:07
Derek Brown views Travis Kelce as a high-value target, noting he secured him in the eighth round. Kelce remains a reliable asset in formats prioritizing first-read targets, as he is guaranteed to command those looks regardless of physical decline. Brown also ranks Kelce ahead of Dalton Kincaid for Week 1.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveValue22:21
Derek Brown identifies Tucker Kraft as a key component of his draft strategy on ESPN, noting the value he provides at his current draft position, though he questions his startability compared to other options.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveMatchup32:03
Derek Brown and Scott highlight Zay Flowers as an elite receiver against all coverage types, specifically noting he destroys single-high coverage, which the Colts utilize on nearly 65% of snaps. Flowers posted a 27% target per route run rate and 2.85 yards per route run against single-high looks last year. While his efficiency is tied to Lamar Jackson's play-action usage, his versatility across X, slot, and Z positions makes him an underrated stud with high touchdown potential.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00The NFL regular season is upon us and we are ready to rock with an NFL week 1 fantasy preview with Derek Brown, a
0:07fantasy pros. He writes this monster primer every single week.
0:20If you're a returning subscriber, you already know what makes this the best fantasy football channel on the planet.
0:25So, hit that like button. If you're new here, subscribe. Turn notifications on so you never miss a daily show that helps you win your fantasy league. All
0:34right, let's get into it. I'm gonna skip the pleasantries with Scott. If you weren't aware, I had to take a vacation
0:39last week after just two weeks of doing the show with Scott. I it led me to just getting out of here for a week. So, u
0:46we'll just skip that. Hi, Scott. How are you? Uh Dro, let's jump right in. DK Metaf for single high coverage. They're
0:52playing the Atlanta Falcons. What do you got here? Sorry, man. I want to see how long we can go the timer before Scott
0:59actually says a word. He's going to mess this up now that I've called it out. But dude, this has been a thing with with DK
1:07Medaf over the last few years. Like if you go all the way back to like a Seattle days, the monster splits between
1:13single and too high have always been there. And so last year with Pittsburgh, it was still a thing. And the reason I
1:19want to point this out because this is a fantastic matchup for DK. Like weeks 12 through 18, Atlanta had the fourth
1:26highest single high rate in the entire NFL. And a lot of times we get into the weeds, new defensive coordinators, new
1:32defensive personnel, you like some of this stuff gets noisy, but despite the fact that the Falcons brought like got a new head coach, they brought back the
1:41same DC. So I think there is stickiness to this. and DK Mechaf last year against single high boys 28% target per route
1:49run rate 2.38 yards per route run. So while I'm not a big fan of Aaron Rogers and DK Mechaf over the totality of the
1:57season, I do think he cooks in week one.
2:01>> Very nice. You know, not to get way into the weeds on the Falcons defensive thing. It is funny they brought back
2:06Jeff Albrech. The only reason I'm assuming they did that is because their defensive personnel is so unique. like >> it was built for him to run it. So like
2:15to expedite kind of getting this ship off the ground, it seemed like keeping him in tow to kind of lead this group of
2:22I mean they don't have a single edge rusher on the roster uh over 250 lbs. Uh at least they didn't until they signed
2:29Cedarius Smith. Sorry, but uh yeah, I just I found that really interesting. So uh Scott, where you at on DK Metaf? I
2:35will welcome you to to speak now on your show, but uh here we are.
2:40>> Damn, I thought we were going to get to five minutes.
2:42>> Yeah. So obviously, yeah, this has long been a sick DFS cheat code is you really only play DK Metaf in single high
2:50matchups over the last three years. 2.35 yards per route run against single high, 1.79 against two high. Um, that being said, I I really have no interest in DK
3:01Metaf this week. Like what I do for start sits, especially week one, is I really kind of don't move off of, you
3:09know, I I kind of just start guys based on my rankings for the most part, unless of course, you know, there's there's a
3:15clear injury we have to make note of or, you know, maybe I'll upgrade the old guys a little bit more. But this one,
3:22yeah, DK Metaf was a hardcore fade for me. So, he was my wide receiver 45 uh in my reddraft rankings. I'd start him as
3:31like I don't know like a high-end wide receiver for this week. I will say hey Chris Wet best projections in the
3:36industry last year. Um he disagrees. He has DK Metaf like fringe top 25.
3:44>> Um >> so yeah maybe maybe Dro and Chris know better than me and this is just offseason take lock but uh
3:53>> yeah I will say you know hey Aaron Rogers is the healthiest he's going to be all year. Uh, if he's if DK is gonna
3:59go off, it's gonna be in this matchup.
4:02>> Okay, that's fun. Um, Scott, what's your what's your big downside case for DK?
4:09>> I just don't think he's very good. I think he's probably the most overt >> I agree with that >> wide receiver in football. If you look
4:15at his ass, it's really pedestrian. I think he is who we kind of thought he was coming out where he was this like
4:22freak speed score, you know, this size speed, you know, great deep threat, uh, but zero lateral agility. Had one of the
4:30worst three cones ever and one of the best speed scores, weight adjusted 40 times ever. And I just feel like that's
4:36who he is. Like he like look at what he did last year. He just was a deep threat. And then I think he housed one
4:42screen and that was about his entire year. although he had, you know, uh, among the best target volume of any player, you know, when I was diving into
4:51the weeds of fantasy points data 2.0 where, uh, you could break things down by drive, DK Mechaf had like the second
4:58or third highest target share on the first drive of the game and then it just fell off a cliff after that. They like
5:04really tried to get him involved in the game plan and just nothing was working.
5:09I I'm a Michael Pit. I mean, I'm really a no one guy on the Steelers, but if I'm a guy, a fan of anyone, it's it's
5:16Michael Pitman who um I think Aaron Rogers at this stage of his career, he just needs a quick outlet, someone who
5:22can get open immediately, uh short, shallow routes, and that's Michael Pitman, at least who he's been historically. That's not DK Metaf.
5:31>> So, I I have to wonder if the presence of Michael Pitman helps DK Metaf, right?
5:36especially against some of this, you know, off cover three he's going to see this week against Atlanta where he's got corners lining up 8 to 10 yards off the
5:44ball. He has access to all that underneath hitch and comeback type stuff which then gives him access to the the you know vertical plane. So, I do I do
5:53think Pman's presence probably actually helps DK and the type of receiver DK is.
5:57But >> that's certainly possible, but I really feel like the burden of proof is on DK and I need another week or two before I
6:03I buy into it.
6:05>> That's fair. The way that I read them, the the addition of Michael Pitman Jr.
6:08is they're a perfect compliment to each other. Like I mean, you have DK who has these splits against >> what is the more valuable role in
6:15fantasy? It's the the shallow route keep >> when you get a too high heavy team.
6:20Yeah, it is like but I think that they're going to be coverage specific.
6:23Like these two guys are going to rotate back and forth.
6:26>> Yeah. Hey, that's that's a fair point.
6:27That's probably that's probably what it's going to be. Um, so yeah, certain like I mean if you drafted DK Metaf like
6:34this would be the spot to play him. But if you followed my draft guide, you didn't draft DK Mechaf. I'm pretty sure
6:40that was the smart move.
6:42>> All right, let's move on to uh Dro's ninth thing here. Kyler Murray verse Green Bay. Um, Green Bay is going to sit
6:51back and play a lot of too high, right?
6:53I mean, they were top 10 in the league in two high last year. Look towards the back half stretch. a lot of too high.
6:59What do you got here, D bro?
7:01>> Dude, first of all, I mean, going his first game for the Minnesota Vikings against his former head coach who, if
7:06there's anybody out there, and before we get into the coverage stuff and go down narrative street for a second, if there's anybody out there that is
7:12innately in tune and aware of what Kyler Murray is good at and what he sucks at, you got to think Jonathan Ganon is, man.
7:20And the fact that he's not good versus too high, I think is going to stand out here. So, I think Kyler is probably in
7:24for a long day. Since 2023, Ganon has utilized too high at the third highest rate in the entire freaking NFL. And if
7:32you look at Kyler, shout out DS2 here.
7:35Last two seasons amongst 31 qualifying passers, 14th lowest yards per attempt, 13th lowest highly accurate throw rate, and the ninth fewest fantasy points per
7:46drop back versus uh too high. That's Kyler Murray. So fade Kyler Murray week one. I'm fading Justin Jefferson. Ipso facto. If you look at the two eye
7:55splits, it's actually a good coverage matchup for Jordan Addison if this stuff holds. And I think there is some stickiness again going back to this
8:02because KOC's been running this offense.
8:05So I think you're going to see some of those trends also stick that especially in week one. But Kyler Murray, yeah, no,
8:11not not here for it.
8:13>> To be honest with you, I um I'm curious like Green Bay's defense is just I mean no Micah Parsons, no Rashan Gary, where
8:22are they getting the pass rushers from?
8:23Um, they're still I I know they made some some acquisitions at corner, especially through the draft and Brandon CE, but I'm just like where are they
8:31getting the the high-end playmaking from on this defense is is the only question I have to where, you know, sure they
8:38might play a ton of too high, but Kyler should basically have his will with where he wants to go with the football.
8:44I think it's a it's a really interesting call.
8:46>> So, I I'll say Chris kind of agrees with you, Brett. Uh, I'm looking at the projections right now and he's our QB9.
8:54He's like a full fantasy point per game above Drake May above Caleb Williams and it's not like this was Chris's Exodia by
9:03the projections. He was maybe slightly higher than ADP. So clearly there's something Chris likes about this matchup. Um, and I I think you know
9:11there's the benefit of the doubt here on on KOC just when we've seen every quarterback who wasn't JJ McCarthy smash in this offense. It was
9:23>> Kurt Cousins. It was Sam Darnold. It was Nick Mullins. Like this is one of my favorite stats. Nick Mullins, the the
9:29podcaster from Cometown, started three games with Kevin O'Connell and he threw for 303 411 and 396 passing yards. It's
9:40like what, 380 passing yards per start.
9:44Uh Joshua Dos freaking got >> baby >> got got traded mid-season on a Tuesday.
9:51Uh then on Sunday, doesn't even start.
9:54drops 27 fantasy points and then 5 days after that 25 fantasy points and then another QB1 finish. Um and so yeah, I
10:03don't know. It's just uh well also why don't you explain for the folks at home the difference between single high and
10:09two high and and why that matters.
10:12>> Uh yeah, so you asking me or Dro by the way? I don't want to be rude to the guest.
10:17>> You're the No, I I I was going to add on after this. I figured that was a Brett question. So
10:22>> yeah, a better way to describe it would be middle of the field closed or middle of the field open. So single high
10:27coverage is a middle of the field closed coverage shell. And that usually it aligns with, you know, cover one or covered three or some variation of
10:35covered three. And there's a lot of them. And then middle of the field open or cover two or sorry two high is cover
10:41two, four or six. And again, several variations of all those coverages. So, um, the the two high shells that we're seeing in the NFL are very soft in the
10:51middle of the field. So, you're inbreaking routes, your underneath routes typically have a lot more success. They're protecting the boundaries and they're protecting deep
11:00and they're basically trying to give their defensive line time to get home.
11:05And so, you see usually a lower ADOT against two high shell, but you see a much higher completion percentage typically. Um, except in the case of
11:13Kyler Murray apparently.
11:14>> I was Dude, I was just going to say, so basically, you're outlining >> a defense that's going to ask Kyler
11:20Murray to do all the things that he doesn't like to do. He can't see over the offensive line. He doesn't target
11:26the middle of the field. I think we're going to see a fundamentally because everything you outline there, Scott, with KOC and previous quarterbacks. None
11:33of that's wrong. The only caveat to all that is all those quarterbacks are taller than 5'9. So, yes, they could run
11:40a KOC offense. I think we're gonna see a different version of the Vikings offense this year. I think you're going to see
11:45them much more runheavy. They're going to be using a lot of play action, a lot of downfield stuff, and that's not going
11:50to be I mean, yes, there's a reason of like talking about Green Bay not having a pass rush. I absolutely agree with
11:56that. But Brett, you've also made the case with mobile quarterbacks of basically rush contain of like sitting back and if you force Kyler Murray to
12:05play from the freaking pocket, is that a good thing?
12:10>> Yeah. It's a great point.
12:12>> Let's also not forget uh I believe Kyler Murray is Jay uh Gen Z Jay Cutler, which is just that there there's no gaff there
12:22at all. Um we all remember when it got worked into his contract that he needed at least three hours of of film study
12:30per week in order to trigger like $5 million. Uh and then they got bullied into removing that clause. But you have
12:38uh former coaches and former teammates coming out against him like, "Bro, you don't want this guy on your team. You know, he's a great runner. He just never
12:46wants to run." And so the most recent thing out of Minnesota is like, you know, he's he's never late, but he's
12:53he's never there a second early and he's he's never, you know, he he leaves as soon as, you know, it's a final bell.
13:01And uh yeah, so I don't know. I it also seemed like yeah he beat out JJ McCarthy which is like a really low bar but like
13:08if you follow the beat writers like it seemed like a real competition for >> it was a real competition >> way longer than it should have. So
13:16>> it was like had his worst practice and then they were like oh no we can't we got to stop this. We got to stop this.
13:21He had his worst practice and then they went out and named him the starter like the very next day. And just for
13:26everybody out there, uh, Kyler's a sell high after October 23rd because that's when Call of Duty comes out this year.
13:35>> There you go. Yeah. You know, you notice something about that. Every October his fantasy points per game drops, but his
13:42KO toD skyrockets.
13:43>> Yeah. KDR, baby.
13:44>> What is What is K to D? Oh my. Did you just pull a kill to death ratio comment?
13:49>> Yeah. KDR, baby.
13:50>> Come on.
13:50>> I didn't know. Uh, >> the olds will know.
13:53>> Oh my god. the olds.
13:58Uh, another feather in your cap on this one, D bro, is the the overunder in this game is 46. That's that's a relatively
14:05high implied point total. Um, that definitely, you know, I don't know that it's just kind of middle ground actually looking at these. There's a lot of high
14:14point totals this week. Holy crap, >> there are a lot.
14:16>> Um, all right, let's move on. Uh, same game. Jordan Love vers the Minnesota Blitz. This is a fun one because uh
14:24Minnesota likes to just go mugged a gaps and blitz all day long and Brian Flores is still the defensive coordinator with
14:30the Vikings. So what do you got here?
14:32>> Dude, I think a lot of people are going to look at this on its like for face value and say, "All right, fine. Let you
14:38know Harrison Smith is back. Brian Flores is still going to do Brian Flores things." You look at how they closed last year, weeks 12 through 18, the
14:45Vikings defense gave up the seventh fewest yards per attempt, third lowest passer rating, and they're going to say, "This is a really bad match up for
14:52Jordan Love until you look at, okay, yes, we know what Brian Flores is going to do. He's led the entire freaking NFL
14:58in blitz rate over the last two years, and even if you go further back, it's still there. So, there's proof in the
15:04pudding." In that same uh two years, Jordan Love amongst se 37 qualifying passers ranks seventh in yards per attempt and EPA per dropback versus the
15:14Blitz. So I think Jordan Love is actually as long as like he has some modicum of time to diagnose this like
15:22with all of his pass catchers healthy Tucker Craft is back and stuff like that. He has cooked defenses versus the Blitz over the last few years. We know
15:30what Brian Flor is going to do. I think this is a really good spot for Jordan Love. This is actually maybe the game
15:35I'm most excited for. Same.
15:37>> You you highlighted the two quarterbacks here. We've also got um good friend of Fantasy Points data, good good enemy of
15:45of PFF uh JJ Watt calling this game great announcer. Um and so I was looking at this and I think like the entire game
15:53really comes down to whether or not Green Bay's offensive line can buy Jordan Love enough time to exploit Minnesota deep. Uh and and with that
16:04probably that's that's probably gonna be Christian Watson, our guy Dro. Um but Green Bay's offensive line really struggled last year. You know, dealt
16:11with a number of injuries in the second half. They were a bottom 10 pass blocking offensive line. Um Minnesota's defensive line easily best in the league
16:20by by uh pressure rate over expectation or any other metric you want to look at.
16:25But so basically the Vikings defense looks elite everywhere. They have an elite pass rush, an elite defensive coordinator. If they had one weakness,
16:33it's defending the deep ball. Last year, they ranked fifth worst in EPA per pass on balls thrown 20 plus yards in the
16:40air. On all other throws, they were top seven. And that's right in Jordan Love's wheelhouse. Only Matthew Stafford has more deep passing yards than Love over
16:50the last three years. No quarterback has a higher percentage of their total yards coming on deep passes. And so I I like
16:57Christian Watson's odds of I Hey, if if Matthew Golden's a thing this year, it we'll find out. I think in week one, but
17:03I would be putting my money on on potentially Christian Watson being uh the single most valuable player in this game.
17:12>> Agree.
17:12>> What about for the Scott Bearbull?
17:14>> Why did you drop him in the Scott Bearbull? I didn't, but I there's implications here because of the way we
17:21>> score the Scott Bear Bowl Scott with the separation, the explosive plays. Yeah. I mean, >> in in our format, ass is more valuable
17:29than touchdowns. So, >> yeah, there's no points for touchdowns, actually.
17:33>> That's right.
17:34>> If you guys don't know about this, we we did a fantasy league, Brett and Dro are both in it, uh, where the scoring is
17:40based on our charted data. So, it's like, yeah, PPR is is cool, but a mistackle force per uh point per mistackle force league is way more fun.
17:52So uh you guys could follow along. I put a tweet out about it a couple or scott bearbull.com. There you go.
17:57>> You made me paranoid. I had to just double check and make sure I wasn't on the clock right now.
18:03>> My uh last comment on Scott Bearbull somehow I got Travis Kelce in like the eighth round. The way we score tight
18:09ends is first read targets.
18:11>> Yeah, >> that's all he gets. That's all he gets.
18:13He could be as wash as he wants to be.
18:15As long as he gets first read targets, I'm good.
18:18>> And we know he's going to. So, it's it is what it is. All right, let's move on.
18:22Houston versus tight ends. I'm going to guess you're going to tell me Daltton Kade's about to smash Houston's defense just because it's the only exploitable
18:31angle here against Houston's defense.
18:33But >> yeah, go ahead.
18:34>> That's all I got. Like like just if you look at this from just a common sense standpoint before we get into the
18:39numbers.
18:40>> Do you want to challenge Derrick Stingley and Kamari Lacer and Jaylen Petri? No, you don't put it to that.
18:46>> So I think with Dalton Concincaid plus like this could be the year we finally get Dalton Concaid unlocked in a 60 or
18:5270% route share. this would be the matchup because again like I know that they added Reed Blanketship on the back end in the off seasonason, but if you
19:00look at how the Texans closed last year again like the only spot that you can moderately attack against that freaking defense is with the tight end. Weeks 12
19:09through 18, Houston gave the seventh most receiving uh fantasy points per game and the 11th most fantasy points per opportunity to the tight end. So
19:17yes, I think that this is a really good spot for Dalton Concincaid because again, you don't want to go out after
19:22those corners. The linebackers are good, but if Dalton Concincaid is moving around the formation, there is spots for him to sit there and definitely cook
19:29this uh defense.
19:30>> Yeah, I I don't know why I want to pick on you, Dro, and or just play devil's advocate to everything you're saying,
19:36but yeah, so this is this is what we call a tight end funnel matchup, right?
19:40Like where else will the ball go? Mhm.
19:43>> Um and and it really only makes sense for it to go to Dalton Concade. Maybe maybe James Cook gets a little more
19:49targets, but yeah, certainly Dalton Concade, who by the way, uh ranked third best in yards per route run last year.
19:56It went Puka Nua, JSN, and then Dalton freaking Concaid. Um but you know, even though it's a tight end funnel spot,
20:04it's still a tough matchup on paper. I think like Houston ranked top 10 in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends. And
20:12then also it's like wishful thinking. If you drafted Concaid, you're hoping he gets a higher route. He's a full-time player. You're hoping for that. But
20:21that's something I I typically want to see before I buy into it. So if he goes off on my bench, to me, that's like a
20:29special treat, you know, but it's not it's not something I want to be uh, you know, putting putting stakes on, putting
20:36my money on this week. But didn't you just outline earlier too, Scott, when the guys are most healthiest and the guys you want to play at the very
20:43beginning of the season, >> isn't Concaid walking into the season possibly at his healthiest?
20:49>> Would this be the time for them to up his route here?
20:52>> That's a great counterargument. Yeah.
20:53Yeah.
20:54>> Just ask him. Just ask him the question.
20:55Scott, >> Scott's also pounded the table for Concaid all offseason, so I don't know.
21:01>> I It's not hard to like Dton Concaid everything last year, dude. Like you look at every tight end metric, he was
21:08first in separation, yards per route run, route win rate, first downs per rout, like everything you look at.
21:14>> Scott, we had this argument because last season, last offseason, I was all in on Concaid. You clowned me for that take. I
21:21You ended up being right and then somehow you flipped to my side now. So, I don't know. I don't know how we landed
21:27here, but >> he's he's someone I've struggled with.
21:29He's he might be like the single most upside wins championships tight end I can remember. where it's really like okay he I have a bunch of stats on this
21:40read my tight end rankings article but it's it was something like if you just exclude games he was on the injury
21:46report or left the game early with an injury he was tight end five by fantasy points per game and he did it with a 40%
21:52route share and it's like if he maintained his yards per route run and had an 80% route share like Trey McBride
21:58he would have had like 1,600 receiving yards and so yeah it's The argument against that, by the way, if you're wondering why he wasn't an
22:08Exodia, is because I think they like Dawson Knox. I think they like Jackson Haw. I don't think they fully trust him
22:13as a blocker, although we've heard some encouraging things. He's someone I've just really struggled with, but I don't know. I think you've done a good job of
22:21selling me where, you know, my my draft strategy this year was Tucker Craft on ESPN, George KD on Sleeper and Yahoo.
22:29Uh, I like that value, but like both of them, you know, this is probably the reverse of Dalton Concade where this is
22:36like the least close to 100% they're going to be all year. So maybe maybe that's the play. Ultimately, I'm just going to default to Chris's projections
22:43because he's he's an uber genius. Um, but yeah, >> how does he have Cage projected for week one, by the way?
22:50>> Yeah, let's let me pull it up.
22:52>> He's a concaid hater if I'm not mistaken. So, >> I'm sure he is. Yeah, he's a all projections guys would be uh
22:58>> well because you you're literally like your butts puckering trying to make a medium projection for a guy that might have a 50% route share but maybe he has
23:06a 70% route share. So like I I definitely get the pain there.
23:09>> Yeah, he has he has them tight in 18.
23:11These are unofficial by the way. Not by the time you're listening to this it'll probably be official on our site but uh
23:18Chris is probably burning the the midnight oil to to get this. Did >> you say tight end 18?
23:23>> Yeah.
23:25I I I'm going to disagree with Chris on that one. But uh for those that haven't figured it out, by the way, we we also
23:32are like we've asked Eric to bring not obvious things to the table.
23:36>> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Screw the low hanging fruit.
23:39>> Yeah. We're not telling you to start Jamar Chase, you know, kick rocks if that's the analysis you want, I guess.
23:44>> Yeah.
23:45>> If you're looking for me to tell you to start Tyler Warren, you've come to the wrong freaking show.
23:48>> Yeah.
23:48>> D Bro is the best and like I respect him so much as an analyst. It's like it's never like he's saying something wrong.
23:55It's just like I get it, but you know, I might I might lean the other way because I >> I want the push back. I like the
24:02conversation.
24:02>> I just love debating. I love arguing.
24:04So, I I'm going to lean towards that anyway. Yeah.
24:06>> I mean, it's either this on a show or it's you and me texting at 1:00 a.m. So, it's it's one way or another we're
24:11fighting. So, >> Scott, I I like the Concaid call specifically because of you. Actually, that's what's so funny cuz you don't
24:19like it, but I like it cuz >> cuz your whole strategy was a Tucker Craft, was a George KD late because the
24:25the values on them were were there. But if you did go that route, you had to draft another tight end for safety. And
24:32you can concade is on that list 100%.
24:34So, >> an elite tight end, too. But it's like, do do I feel comfortable starting tight end one over Tuckercraft, over I don't
24:43know.
24:44>> Is KD playing week one?
24:46I mean, he's flying out to Australia, >> but if you had somebody like a Jake Ferguson or you waited and you had a
24:53Dalton Schultz or a Mark Andrews or one of these other guys like >> Yeah. If you've [ __ ] up your pick and
24:58you took someone who sucks.
24:59>> YEAH. IF YOU WAITED ON TIGHT END, THAT'S WHAT WE'RE GOING TO CALL THAT. WAITING on tight end, Scott.
25:06>> All right. Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam Leaporta, Tyler Warren, Kyle Pittz, Joan Johnson, Colston Lovelin, Tucker Craft, George KD, Dallas Goddard, Harold
25:16Fannon, uh Travis Kelce, all guys I' I'd start over. Dalton Concade, but then he's probably right there.
25:23>> Yeah.
25:25All right, let's move on. Cleveland past Dy verse uh well, Debb's going to break down how they fare against perimeter wide receivers and slot wide receivers.
25:34And Jacksonville's a tough puzzle to crack because we have three receivers.
25:38We kind of like that ADP and one of them is one of Scott's Exodas. So Derek, why don't you break down this matchup for
25:44us?
25:45>> Dude, I love this matchup because I think we're going to see Parker Washington absolutely cook in week one, baby. Like if you look at this matchup
25:51and >> specifically because if you were to take the 100 foot view of the Cleveland pass defense last year, you'd be like, "Oh,
25:58it's it's not bad for Brian Thomas Jr.
26:00and Jacobe Meyers." Like, let's fire them up. flex plays, wide receiver three, four, what have you. But if you look at specifically just the eight
26:07games where Tyson Campbell and Denzel Ward were on the field together, full-time players, then you'll realize there's no way in hell that I'm playing
26:14Jacobe Myers or Brian Thomas Jr. because in those eight games, shout out to again, shout out to DS2. In in those
26:21eight games, they only gave up 1.43 fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers, 7.24 yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. If you put
26:30that number across the entirety of the overall season, there would be those would be the third lowest marks in the NFL. And then it's like, okay, well,
26:39Brian Thomas Jr., his field stretching role that he finished last year with, okay, look at the same sample size of eight games. Again, this is not like
26:47some threeame sample I'm pulling out and saying, "Oh, let's project that over the whole freaking season." It's eight games. They only gave up a 31%
26:55completion rate and a 73.1 passer rating to deep passes. So, Brian Thomas Jr. deep passes, nope. Perimeter wide receivers versus Cleveland, nope.
27:05And then we look at their slot corner, Miles Harden, and good lord, Parker Washington is going to beat him up and
27:12steal his freaking lunch money, man.
27:14It's going to happen in week one. Like Harden on a per route basis last year gave up a 71.9% catch rate, a 119.3
27:22passer rating and coverage. You look at 34 qualifying slot corners last year, and again, all of this in-depth like corner stuff is so freaking awesome for
27:33matchups. Harden in those 34 slot corners gave up the fifth highest pass rating, the ninth most fantasy points per target, and the ninth highest step
27:43or rate of step of separation. So, all this means is Parker Washington smashes, don't start Brian Thomas Jr. or Jacobe Myers. No way in hell.
27:52>> Yeah. If I were James Gladstone, I'd really be sweating right now just because, you know, all off season they were engaged in contract negotiations.
28:02You're trying to get him to sign that before week one, dude.
28:04>> I know. Price of the brick going up ASAP.
28:08>> It is.
28:09>> Um, and so yeah. Yeah. Obviously, you're starting the Exodia wide receiver Parker Washington, but I I want to make a
28:16little note here on on BTJ, and I think this is a a Dro tweet.
28:21>> He is like one of the most grueling >> first half >> schedules I can remember for a wide receiver one. So, like he was not a a a
28:30a target in drafts for me, but he he could be a pretty good mid-season boil.
28:36Dro, do you do you remember what his gauntlet looks like?
28:41>> It is god awful. And again, if you go to the shadow index in DS2 when it's live, you will see everything I'm about to lay
28:49out here, bro. It is horrible. Okay, let's just walk Brian Thomas Jr.'s schedule for Okay, we just described week one. Week two, Patrick Certain
28:57shadowing him. Week three, Christian Gonzalez. Week four, DJ Turner. Week five, Quinnon and Tariq Woolen. Week six, oh, I haven't even started yet.
29:05Brett, let me get warmed up, baby. Week six, Derek Stingley and Kamari Lacader.
29:09Week eight, Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward. Week nine, the Baltimore Ravens pass defense. It is not until you come up for air at week 10 that Brian Thomas
29:19Jr. gets the Tennessee secondary, then the Giants, Tennessee, Chicago, Pittsburgh. the it is a laundry list of shadow corners and horrible secondaries
29:29he has to go against until week 10. I'm telling you right now, Brian Thomas Jr.
29:34is going to be one of the most dropped players in all of fantasy in the first five or six weeks of the season. He's
29:39going to be the poster boy on every Bo article that is written after week nine.
29:45>> It sounds like he might play himself even out of that. Like people are going to be scared to boow because there's
29:50there's not going to be anything >> because it's going to be god awful. It's going to be horrible. Man, >> that's a tough schedule in general for
29:56the Jags. Something we maybe should have considered uh with some of our other analysis, but like I I've been very high
30:02on Trevor Lawrence this off seasonason.
30:04Uh that's a that's a really tough early, you know, early season schedule there.
30:07So, >> but to this point though, Brett, this is why I've kind of come around on Britain Strange this offseason. I bumped him up
30:13in my ranks when I was going through the schedule and I was like, "Okay, if it's this bad for Brian Thomas Jr. And it's
30:18this bad probably for Jacobe Myers on the outside. Okay, we're even more in on Parker Washington. And I think Britton Strange who was, by the way, top 12 in
30:27first downs per route run and yards per route run. He just didn't get the target volume. Maybe Briton Strange is going to
30:32be one of those late round tight ends that comes out of the the woodwork.
30:36>> Uh, one other note on the Cleveland pasty is they don't have Miles Garrett anymore. Uh, that actually changes things. cornerback is the most uh
30:45year-over-year the most flimsy position.
30:48Like you can't it's really hard to predict what a quarterback is going to give you year-over-year statistically. A lot of times a really good season for a
30:56corner is merely it's it's like literally inches. The difference is inches or or ten of a second. And when you lose a player like Miles Garrett,
31:04the long-term effects that has on a quarterback room cannot be understated.
31:10And I I think some of these guys could could end up struggling long term.
31:15Denzel Ward has been kind of up and down with Miles Garrett, you know, so so without Miles Garrett, what does he look
31:21like? Um, you know, we know Tyson Campbell has also been a very up and down player. So very curious to see how
31:27this secondary works out. In general, they're obviously already weak in the middle with um Miles Harden as the nickel quarterback. So I I love this
31:35call. Ex uh Parker Washington earned his Exodia status by the way when he bet on himself and refused to sign the
31:41extensions they were offering him. He's like, "Nah, I'm getting way more than that after this season." So, love that about him. Um, number five on the list
31:49here, you have Z Flowers versus Single High. The Colts are uh, you know, they play a lot of single high. What's going
31:56on here?
31:56>> So, I think the biggest things, and this is one of the more smaller sample things, but again, we're trying to get
32:01into the tea leaves and understand what's going to happen probably in week one. just looking at last year because we we got such a small sample of S
32:08Gardner in this past defense, but in the two games that that the Colts did have S Gardner, dude, they utilize single high
32:15on almost 65% of their defensive snaps. That's a massive number, dude. And and I just don't think that people understand that
32:23Z Flowers, he is, we're talking about ascods here, bro. He's amazing versus every coverage. He destroys freaking single high. 27% target per route run
32:32rate, 2.85 85 yards per route run last year against single high. I think Zay's going to come out and a lot of people
32:39could be like concerned about Sauce and Charvarius Ward if he plays and what have you. I think Zay's going to have a
32:45wonderful day.
32:46>> Love that. Scott, what about you?
32:48>> Yeah. Yeah, in in full agreement, uh Zay Flowers good against every coverage type. One stat I had that I thought was
32:56really interesting, Brett, that I would love to pick your brain on >> is I I called Z Flowers a playaction merchant because I I looked at the the
33:08stats on him and he ranks fourth best in yards per route run on plays with play action over the last three years. Uh
33:16without play action, he falls to 41st tied with Adam Thielen. It's like really really bad. The good news is the uh
33:27Ravens had a lot more play action in preseason. You heard Declan Doyle, all the coaches talk about wanting more play action. And if that what we saw in
33:37preseason holds true to the regular season, they're going to be jumping from a below average rate to a top three rate. Uh I'm going to guess that you're
33:45going to say this is a Lamar Jackson stat. Either way, >> I would like to hear your explanation for this, Brett. Yeah, mostly a Lamar
33:52stat, but I think the the finite details there are that like all of Zay's big plays downfield are usually coming on
33:59some type of scrambled drill off a play action where Lamar's, you know, it's also the way they do play action's a
34:06little different. It's not like a a Ben Johnson style or Shawn McVey style where the QB's under center and they're booting him out and cutting the field.
34:14It's that's not really what they do with Lamar. more it's like sevenst step off of play action and so you get a lot of
34:20you know scrambled drill opportunities with with Zay and Lamar and they have a good connection there. So I mean I can
34:25think of two just like 60 plus yard plays last year alone for from Lamar to Zay off of play action that are
34:32definitely inflating those numbers.
34:35>> Yeah, I was going to say this feels like a Lamar Jackson stat. Now I'm I'm curious what Isaiah likely splits off of
34:40uh play action are as well. So, >> can we just say like Z Flowers is the most underrated receiver in the league
34:46to me.
34:46>> Yes, he is.
34:47>> This guy is a freaking stud. Like, you look at when DSU comes out, you can see where he lines up on the field. His
34:54production, it's consistent across the board. He plays 33% at the X, 33% in the slot, 33% at the Z. Yards per route runs
35:03relatively the same at all three. The separation score is relatively the same at all three. Scott also just told you he's good against every coverage type.
35:11This dude's freaking awesome. The only thing he doesn't have in his his resume is touchdown scoring, which I think might change this year. So, I love love
35:18me some Z Flowers.
35:21Number four, Tyler Shuck versus the Detroit Secondary. I'm just going to go on a limb and say no Kirby Joseph, no
35:27Brian Branch, Terry Arnold's robbing people. We have no idea what's going on.
35:32Detroit secondary is banged up. Go ahead, pick them pick on my boys. What's up? I mean, you you've already given away some of my notes, Brad, but yes, to
35:39your point, this also does line up, too.
35:42And shout out to Tower Shuck, who I uh drafted in the Sky Bear Bowl, because y'all left a guy with a high catchable
35:47target and a higher throat rate throw rate, excuse me. I can't apparently talk.
35:51>> He was going to be my next pick for what it's worth. You took him right before me.
35:54>> Yeah, I I was looking at I went back and looked at the scoring and I was like, why is Tyler Shuck still sitting here?
36:00Like, there's something wrong with this.
36:01Okay, fine. Bing. So, but yes, Tyler Shook I think is gonna have a wonderful week one. If you look at the again with
36:08Brian Branch out, with Kirby Joseph out, also if we look at how Detroit and and this is really I mean Brett, you tell me
36:14if I'm wrong, they're really returning a lot of the same cast of characters in this secondary and when you're dealing with backup safeties, are they going to
36:21are they going to have any blown coverages and what have you? And if you look at how they finished last year,
36:26weeks 12 through 18, Detroit gave up the most yards per attempt, the fourth highest CPOE, and they struggled mightily defend the deep ball. Second
36:36most deep passing yards per game, six highest passer rating to deep passes. If these aren't all Tyler Shuck and Chris Ave stats, I'll also throw out a deep
36:44poll for DFS people out there. And if you're doing prop bets, Bryce Lance, baby, I think he could take a long
36:50target to the house this week. Yeah, I'm not as as I'm not as down on the the secondary as as you are probably. They
36:57uh they knew Branch and Joseph were going to start on Pup. Like that was >> So they they made, you know, plans to to
37:03not have them. Avante Maddox last year was a top 15 safety in the league and he he was a starter for them. He's going to
37:09be starting for this, you know, he's starting in the Brian Branch role this week. Uh they brought in Chuck Clark who's been a starter for pretty much
37:16every team he's played for in the NFL.
37:18Not a high level starter, but it's not like they're >> not not a good one though, Brad.
37:22>> They But he's not like replacement level. He's an above average player >> by pretty much every metric you look at.
37:28Even if you want to go PFF grade for God's sakes, which >> don't recommend, but um you know, you he he's been an above average player. So
37:36beyond replacement level, point being not a second string kind of guy, not a bench player.
37:40>> And then DJ Reed was healthy for all of four games last year. He's back healthy as the number one corner. I do think it
37:46helps. Christian Izzian coming over from Tampa Bay as well to kind of play a hybrid nickel safety role. Roger McCreary came over from LA. Like they
37:55had the hit on Keith Abney. It looks like he was great in the preseason. You know, fifth round corner who should have
38:00gone a lot higher. Not saying the the secondary is going to be good, but it's like I think it's probably average. And
38:07I, you know, that said, you're absolutely right though. You got to start Tyler Shuck. Um, if you if you waited on quarterback and you know or
38:15you're looking to, you know, you're one of these stream quarterback streamer types that you know do this year to year, this is a great play even just
38:21from the simple fact that Detroit's going to score a ton of points in this game and they're going to have to keep
38:25up and they have the banged up secondary. I think Shuck could absolutely go ham.
38:30>> Yeah, I already bet the over on this total when it opened I think at like 48 and a half. I was like, "Oh, please give
38:35me that total. Give me >> up to 50, isn't it now?"
38:37>> Yeah, it's up I think it's 50 or 50 and a half now. I got it at 48 and a half
38:41and I was like, "Oh, yes. Please and please and thank you."
38:43>> Yeah.
38:44>> Yeah. You really don't need to say too much more than that there. It's a 50 point over under start everyone in this
38:49game because you have >> Yeah, dude.
38:51>> The Saints are sevenpoint underdogs.
38:53Kell Moore pace of play. Saints defense bad. It's It's either going to be a shootout or they're trailing by a touchdown and just forced to pass. So,
39:03um, play Travis at Tienne with Alvin Kamara banged up. Play Jawan Johnson.
39:09play Chris Olive. Uh, play Jameson Williams, Sam Leaporta, Aman Ross, St.
39:14Brown, Jared Goff. I Jared Goff is for sure a start. So, just about everyone in this game I I think gets a start for me.
39:22>> Boom. I love it. Uh, number three on your list, Mecha Eggbuka versus DJ Turner. DJ Turner, in my opinion, Derek,
39:30last year turned himself into one of the pre-minent corners in the league. Top 10 guy for sure, >> maybe better than that even. Uh, he he
39:37was fantastic. And Cincinnati has an improved pass rush situation this year.
39:42A little more depth across the D line.
39:44I'm feeling pretty juicy about what they got. What uh what say you here?
39:48>> Yeah, I I think DJ Turner had one of the best seasons last year as a true shadow corner that people do not give him
39:54enough freaking respect because it's Cincinnati Bengals defense and outside of him it was a whole lot of dog water.
40:00But I think that with the improved situation around him and he's unless I'm wrong here, he's in a contract season too, boys. So, I think he's going to
40:07earn that uh that paper this year. And I think it starts here, man. A Mecha ran 65 or 63.5% of his routes on the
40:14perimeter last year. I do think that that that number goes up a little bit more. We know he's walking into week one
40:20dealing with the toe issue. DJ Turner last year followed DK Metaf twice, Justin Jefferson, Romeo Dos, Zay Flowers twice, and yes, Gabriel Davis, we'll
40:30throw him in here, too. All of those wide receivers on at least 60% of their routes only and all and and in that
40:38sample allowed only one receiving touchdown and only Justin Jefferson surpassed 70 receiving yards in his coverage. This is all to say I am
40:46insanely worried about Acha Ibuka.
40:49>> Even outside of a DJ Turner shadow, if you want to go deeper into this, Cincinnati used single high at the sixth
40:56highest rate last year when a Mecha was at the height of his power. So week one through five and Mecca was like the
41:01reverse DK Mechaf against single high last year. He had 1.36 yards per route run in weeks one through five. This is
41:09not a good matchup for a Mecha Ibuka.
41:11But to flip this on its head, I think Chris Godwin is going to eat this week.
41:15I think going against their slot corner for Cincy again a defense that gave up the fifth most yards per target to
41:21opposing slot receivers. I think a Mecca has a down week and I think Chris Godwin eats in week one.
41:27>> Love it. Scott.
41:28>> Yeah, I think I think Dro nailed it.
41:30Yeah.
41:32>> One thing, this is actually one of my favorite matchups of the week. Uh, you know, the week one slate. It's
41:38>> two teams that are are looking for revenge on what happened to him last year. Baker played through the injury and and the wheels just completely fell
41:45off in Tampa.
41:46>> You know, Burrow was hurt yet again last year and and they just fell short of a playoff run. So, um, I I think both
41:53these teams have a chance to win their division. actually quite Tampa Bay is obviously the favorite in in the South, but I think Cincinnati is is right in
42:00the mix with Baltimore and Pittsburgh and uh with that defense should be taken very very seriously. Um I have friends that have predicted them to go to the
42:07Super Bowl, so I think that's that's very fun.
42:10>> The Bengals. Oh yeah, that's that's my that's my AFC pick, too. Yeah, >> nice.
42:14>> Totally with that.
42:15>> Yeah, if Burough stays healthy, man, sky's is the limit for them. So >> he's got a defense behind him this year,
42:20man.
42:21>> Best defense he's had behind him in his entire career. Easily. Easily.
42:26>> All right. The LA Run game versus the San Francisco Run D. We've been picking on San Francisco's run D for a while
42:31now. What's going on here, >> dude? I I just don't I don't think they made enough substantial additions to the offseason, and they were horrible last
42:38year. Like, s the 49ers rush defense last year give the highest rushing success rate, the 10th most yards before contact per attempt. And another lovely
42:48shiny new metric in DS2 I'll point out here they have the second lowest hit rate at or behind the line of scrimmage
42:55last year. So you're talking about the Rams are just going to have plenty of pathways and room to run. So obviously
43:02you're playing Kairen Williams. You also need to consider if you're like struggling for a flex in a deeper league or a dynasty league or what have you.
43:10This is one of those games where it looks like it's probably a shootout and what have you and stuff. the Rams if
43:16they come out and just put up points on the 49ers and they're missing parts or pieces. George KD's not 100%. Do we get
43:24Mike Evans in this game? Like at the time of listening to this, like maybe he's going to play, maybe he's not. This
43:29feels like one of those games where also Blake Corm gets like a quiet like 12 to 14 carries and maybe gets in the end
43:35zone.
43:36>> Is it You go ahead, Scott.
43:38>> Yeah. And and let's not forget this is an elite Los Angeles Rams run game. uh >> the the top running backs last year by
43:46success rate. One, Kairen Williams, two Blake Cororm, who also led an EPA per run. Um yeah, so yeah, I I think this is
43:55a good call. I I was going to bring up something separate from this, which was how do we feel about the Rams
44:03flying out to Australia uh and landing within 24 hours of the game?
44:10>> I like that. Whereas the 49ers have been there a week.
44:13>> Puka doesn't have a chance to try to chew on anybody. It's a good thing.
44:19>> What?
44:20>> It's true. He goes straight from the airport to the game. I mean, who who he nibbling on? Come on.
44:25>> Who's he nibbling on? What one?
44:28Hilarious thing is every time Ian Report tweets about Puka at the end of his tweet he leaves in there, he still might
44:33face disciplinary action.
44:35>> Dude, >> is that gonna like What are we Where are we at on that? Is that going to happen?
44:38That's kind of a big deal. So, I I take this as they they released the exempt list and stuff. Puka's name not being on
44:46that. That makes me feel like the NFL has done or at least they have obviously more information than we do. If it felt
44:53like this was a situation where the NFL was worried about the PR department and what have you and other things coming
44:58out about Puka, I feel like he would have gone on the exempt list. the fact that he did not and they made it a point
45:04to make a statement of nobody else at this time is going to go on the exempt list and these things happened earlier
45:11in the off season that all the Josh Jacobs stuff I think Puka is going to be fine he's going to play the whole season
45:16but again I could be totally wrong but just trying to read the tea leaves like I mean you tell me how I'm wrong guys
45:23>> I don't have a good read on this situation at all so >> okay >> I don't know >> Scott you know
45:29>> one one other one Another note here on the San Fran Rundy.
45:34>> Um, you know, they drafted Alfred Collins in 2025 to be their like run stuffing nose and like I liked him in
45:39that role, but he has not developed well. He got out leveraged a ton last year was was really a disappointment.
45:45Then he had offseason shoulder surgery and from what I've listened to Kyle Shannan say he's like behind like he like you know verbatim he's behind. So I
45:56the other acquisition they made was Osa Adigizua who's a 280lb three technique.
46:01Like >> they're going to get blown off the ball in this game. Grayson Holton, a rookie from Oklahoma, one of Scott's athletic
46:07freaks that I think he liked even though he doesn't like defensive linemen in general, but um he liked all the freaky
46:12Oklahoma guys this this draft cycle, >> you know.
46:16>> Shout out to Romelo Height, too.
46:18>> Yeah. Well, yeah. Well, Rahee Morris is back as the Dcoordinator.
46:22>> Oh, man. So, we we're prioritizing these these tiny fat I mean T uh motion man Trey the producer knows all about this.
46:29He loves these guys these tiny athletic freaks, but they get absolutely blown off the ball in and run. So, uh we were
46:37already picking on this defense and then you Oh, you also have Keon White recovering from a gunshot wound. So, like >> I don't know. This is uh this is
46:45definitely >> the Rams are just going to run it down their throat this week.
46:48>> Exactly. Exactly. So, all right. The last one for you on today's show is uh maybe this is a little low hanging
46:55fruit. We said we're not doing the low hanging fruit thing, but I think this is lowh hanging fruit. Raandre Stevenson.
47:00First of all, Trayvon Henderson kind of is buns and he's >> a wimp. He's he's hurt and he's a wimp.
47:06He's not going to play through it. At least I don't think. Tell us what you got on Raandre.
47:10>> Uh up against the toughest run defense in football by a lot. We're starting We're starting a running back up against
47:17the toughest run defense in football by a lot.
47:21>> We're starting a Bellcow running back because if Trayvon is out, nobody is going to take any work away from him,
47:27Scott. As well as a running back that is going to play in the passing game.
47:31>> What did What did What did How many rushing yards did Raandre have against the Seahawks in a Super Bowl last year?
47:37>> 23. I'm looking at it right now, but you want to know how many receiving yards he had Scott?
47:42>> How many, D, bro?
47:44>> 40. caught all five of his targets, my man. And got into the end zone through the air, Scott.
47:49>> Wow.
47:50>> You know, in PPR leagues, that might actually matter, Scott. And you know, for everybody doing napkin math at home in the Super Bowl, that's
47:56>> 18 points.
47:58>> Yeah. I mean, that I mean, just through the year alone, Scott, Raandre got 14 PPR points.
48:03>> That's also, you know, we could just add the 2.3 on top of it what he did on early downs, although it doesn't really
48:08matter. But with Raandre, yes, you need to go bet the over receiving yardage. I got it before the TV news came out, but
48:15it's still hanging in the low 20s. Yes, Seattle is good on the ground versus running backs. But where they really struggle, and again, this is going back
48:23to two high coverage and Mike McDonald's defense and what have you, they have not been they they it's not I don't want to
48:31characterize this as they're not good versus running backs. I think that this is just something where they're like, "Yeah, we'll give up short completions
48:38to running backs. That's totally fine."
48:40I mean, this defense literally gave up the ninth most receiving yards and the most receptions in the entire damn NFL to running backs last year. And then you
48:49also put on top of this Raandre amongst 52 qualifying backs, guys. 15th in yards per route run, first in yards per
48:57target. So, it's not only that he's going to get all the damn work. If Drake May is under duress, Raandre is going to
49:04catch four to like six passes. And if he gets in the freaking end zone, I don't care what the stat line is, he's
49:10probably a top 15 running back this week.
49:13>> Yeah. So, this is really one of the most valuable backfields in fantasy historically, the Josh McDaniels backfield. It's it's not from the sense
49:21that there's ever like a guy who's a league winner because it's like almost always a perfectly evenly split 5050 backfield, but just in terms of like
49:30cumulative XFP, cumulative fantasy points, it's it's always up there with the the top backfields. But whenever one of those running backs goes down, then
49:41we see, you know, massive spike weeks.
49:45Last year, Trayvon Henderson, three games without Raandre. Mhm.
49:49>> averaged 24.3 fantasy points per game.
49:51You could go back even further. I remember from a DFS standpoint. Uh I think Raandre got hurt and then like the
49:58most washed, dustiest Zeke Elliot was like a DFS gold every single week. And so yeah, it's the it's you can't deny
50:09that. Yeah, I Raandre isn't just a start. He's a mustard at a, you know, a mid-range RB1 maybe even um or low-end
50:17RB1. But what if what if what if Tayvon is questionable and then active? Um how confident are you in Raandre who's
50:28probably going to get more work than he typically would have but but not, you know, the entire piece of the pie? I I'm
50:35still immensely confident in Raandre because I think the pe thing thing that people miss on Raandre Stevenson because they talk about how good Henderson is
50:43and how explosive he was.
50:45>> Nobody realizes that de that Randre Stevenson was better than Trayvon Henderson in every single discernable freaking metric last year. He had a
50:55higher explosive run rate. He had a higher miss tackle rate. He was better in yards of contact per attempt. He was
51:00better in yards per route run. He was better as a pass protector. He literally was better than him in everything. So
51:07even if Trayvon is healthy, tell me this. Is Mike Vrael going to trust Trayvon Henderson on passing downs on a bum ankle in pass bro or to run routes
51:18or protect Drake May? Hell no.
51:21>> Well, no. And it seems like he's a little doghouse anyways.
51:24>> Yeah.
51:25>> So, yeah.
51:26>> Yeah. So, >> Scott, didn't you call Trayvon Henderson one of the worst picks you could make in fantasy all summer? Yeah, I said he was
51:34the world's most expensive handcuff, which TJ Calins, my dynasty co-manager, had the same exact take independent of me. We were on the phone and he pulled
51:43that out. I'm like, you know, I've been saying that for I've called him the anti-exodia for my disdain. And yeah, like your stats are really good. Trayvon
51:51went off when Raandre went down, but he also benefited from, you know, those were really soft matchups. But across the full season sample games they both
52:01played, uh, Raandre had a 62% snap share. Trayvon 36%. So kind of a far cry from the 50/50. In the playoffs, it was
52:10even worse. In the playoffs, uh, Trevon averaged like 3.4 fantasy points per game with like a 27% snap share. And those were the games that mattered most.
52:20And like they didn't want him on the field and they were better off not having on the field. Look at the when
52:24data suite 2.0 drops. Look at the onoff splits. You know, it's they were clearly a much better team with Raandre on the
52:31field. Tayon really good at big plays typically from outside zone, which is not the offense that Josh McDaniels likes to run. He likes a man gap scheme
52:42where Raandre is is much better, much better suited for that that system. So, um yeah. Yeah. I I was giving you a hard
52:49time at the start just to kind of tee you up to uh you know spike the ball, but um yeah, I'm in full agreement with
52:57you here.
52:58>> Awesome. And for the last take of the day, I need Scott Barrett's uh 2026 metal album of the year.
53:07>> Um did Lepris drop an album?
53:10>> They they did actually. It's >> Lepris for sure. Yeah.
53:14>> It's a It's a live compilation. It's a It's Is it like Live from Hellfest or something? Yeah, I don't know. It's
53:19really really freaking good.
53:20>> We got a bunch of metal heads in here.
53:21I'm not a metal head, but Lepris is like my favorite band. Brett showed them to me and I I think they're they're
53:26phenomenal. So, check it out.
53:28>> Now, now that it's now that the album's actually out, I can correct my previous statements on this show, Brett, and tell
53:33you that President's album is the album of the year now. Now that it's technically out.
53:38>> Nice. Um, I'm gonna go with Carmen Jaca's new album. Um, it's it's fantastic. If you like, it's more math metal, guys. You know, I we've
53:48discovered >> your math metal.
53:51>> You You got your You're one out of Now it's my turn.
53:54>> All right, guys. What's your favorite Gilmore Girls episode?
54:00>> I can honestly tell you, I have never watched >> goes back to school and >> and Todd. Um >> Todd,
54:09>> of course there's a Todd.
54:11>> I actually don't know if there is a Todd.
54:12>> Okay. I've never seen it. Um, >> yeah, sure. We all believe you.
54:17>> Is this like how you could more than me, too?
54:19>> Scott asks you, "What's your favorite daytime soap?" Since we're going off of this >> days of our lives. Come on.
54:24>> I knew it. I knew it.
54:26>> Cuz these are the days of our lives.
54:28>> I knew it. Oh god.
54:30>> Friends reference. Friends reference.
54:32>> Oh, that's Brett is the world's biggest Friends fan, which is I is Seinfeld for Chicks. Am I wrong?
54:39>> Oh god.
54:40>> Seinfeld for Chicks, bro. Monica Rachel.
54:42Like that was I don't know. Whatever.
54:46>> Friends is legit. Don't you hate on Friends spot. Okay.
54:48>> Yeah, man.
54:49>> Maybe I'll give it another >> I grew up on Seinfeld and Friends. It was like >> Seinfeld's got awful, but Friends was
54:54Friends was legit.
54:55>> What?
54:56>> Whatever.
54:56>> That's an awful take.
54:58>> No, that's my best take of this entire show. We get out of here on that one.
55:01>> Scott Derek's from from New Orleans, Louisiana. You expect this man to be be into Seinfeld?
55:06>> Hey, hey, hey. Frasier blows them all so far out of the water. Racing >> best sitcom by far. Perfect show.
55:15>> Frasier blows them all out of the water.
55:19That was great.
55:19>> At least I pronounced water correctly this time.
55:21>> No, you you did. That's true. You also got a Mecha Eggbuka right earlier. I was proud of that. So, >> I was very proud of that. You know, we
55:27didn't get any Quench Junkins on this show.
55:30>> Junins. All right, we got to go here.
55:33Last reminder before we go. Uh, if you're not currently subscribed to the YouTube, you're missing out. You need to subscribe. You need to turn
55:40notifications on. Scott and I are going to be here every single day. If you saw the announcement on X, this is this is
55:45now fact. We'll be here every single day. This week is going to be crazy. We have Data Suite 2 coming out. We're
55:52doing a champagne popping bottle live stream with Chris Wet, the the architect behind it all. Um, it's going to be fun.
56:00We've got Scott, are we doing a live draft? We doing an FFPC main together?
56:04>> I don't know. We'll see. We're running out of daylight here, bro.
56:06>> We might do an FFPC main together. I've never done one, so it'd be my first time.
56:10>> Anyways, huge week. Make sure you have notifications turned on. Dro, thanks for doing the show with us today. Can you
56:16tell the people where they can find your work and this wonderful primer that we were working off of tonight?
56:21>> Yeah, brother. Thank y'all. I mean, shout out to to everything Fantasy Points Data is doing, dude. Like, DS2, I've said it before and I'll say it
56:29again, is going to change the absolute game. It's going to put some of these other data companies out of freaking business. It is that damn good. And this
56:37is not just me blowing smoke. It is absolutely amazing, man. Like, I've only I I've only feel like I've scratched the
56:43surface of this thing. So, shout out to you and everybody else at Fantasy Points, man. Like, the work that y'all put into this is absolutely amazing. And
56:51now everybody's going to get to, you know, reap the rewards of all y'all's hard work. But yeah, the primer, man. Um
56:57it will be live Tuesday morning already.
56:59Maybe live depending on when you're listening to this show. Um, it's my love letter of every single week of the NFL
57:06season. It is powered by fantasy points data. Um, and has been for the last few years. So, every sharp insight versus
57:13coverage and stuff is really a byproduct of all the hard work that Brett and all the boys are doing with charting and
57:18everything every single freaking week.
57:20So, shout out to you guys. But, yeah, Primer will be live every Thursday morning throughout the entirety of the NFL season. I think this week one
57:27version is over 24,000 words, but if you don't want to read all the 24,000 words, control F and find whatever players are
57:34on your team.
57:36>> Awesome.
57:38I love that plug at the end. That's great. All right, that's going to do it for us today. Thank you so much for
57:44listening. We will see you on the flip side.
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