Every Week 5 Start/Sit Decision You Need to Make | 2026 Fantasy Football
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 30 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 9, 2026
Published
Fri, October 9, 2026
40
Player insights
40
Players mentioned
Topics
AJ BarnerAlvin KamaraAmon-Ra St. BrownAntonio WilliamsBo NixCaleb WilliamsCam AkersCeeDee LambChristian WatsonColston LovelandD'Andre SwiftDontayvion WicksHunter HenryIsaiah Likely
Player analysis
Player insights
AJ Barner
NegativeMatchup9:49
AJ Barner is noted for a productive game against Washington, recording nine targets and 69 yards.
Insight pageAlvin Kamara
NegativeUsage15:21
Alvin Kamara is discussed as a start/sit option, with the source noting he is healthy despite previous concerns.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveUsage38:59
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a strong start candidate, noted for being among the league leaders in total routes run and holding the league's highest target per route run against two-high coverage since 2024.
Insight pageAntonio Williams
PositiveBreakout17:13
The source is high on Antonio Williams, comparing him to Amon-Ra St. Brown. He led the Commanders in routes run last week and produced 121 yards and a touchdown (if not for a penalty), making him a strong flex option.
Insight pageBo Nix
NegativeProjection34:57
Bo Nix is struggling significantly, failing to see open receivers and averaging only 5.1 yards per attempt with a 4.7 aDOT. The source describes him as a primary negative factor for Denver's offensive efficiency and explicitly states he 'stinks,' making him a liability for the passing game.
Insight pageCaleb Williams
NegativeInjury42:03
Caleb Williams suffered an injury during the Week 2 game, which was played in a monsoon; this event contributed to a low-scoring 9-3 game and negatively impacted the team's overall offensive performance.
Insight pageCam Akers
NegativeUsage8:18
Cam Akers is a risky start despite projections; he is dealing with a shoulder injury and poor utilization. Prior to a late-game fumble by Najee Harris, Akers saw only a 52% carry share, one target, and just two of six red-zone carries, leading to a 'sell high' recommendation.
Insight pageCeeDee Lamb
NegativeUsage7:46
CeeDee Lamb is cited as a benchmark for high target share, currently ranking ahead of Isaiah Likely in that metric.
Insight pageChristian Watson
PositiveUsage32:13
Christian Watson is considered a must-start every week due to his role in a hyper-efficient, condensed Packers offense, ranking in the top 15 in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game.
Insight pageColston Loveland
NegativeProjection30:26
Colson Loveland is ranked as the TE19 and is projected for nine fantasy points, with an over/under set at 10.3. Despite a recent nine-target performance, the source advises sitting him due to a lack of touchdowns and inconsistent production.
Insight pageD'Andre Swift
NegativeUsage35:07
D'Andre Swift is part of a high-upside backfield committee but has landed in the 'doghouse' following goal-line struggles and a fumble. Despite ranking top-12 in expected fantasy points (XFP) for three consecutive weeks, his role is currently threatened by a potential split with Kyle Monangai.
Insight pageDontayvion Wicks
PositiveUsage32:13
Dontayvion Wicks is considered a must-start every week, ranking in the top 15 in expected fantasy points (XFP) per game within the Packers' condensed passing attack.
Insight pageHunter Henry
NegativeProjection27:09
Hunter Henry is mentioned as a player to avoid starting in favor of other tight end options.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveUsage5:57
Isaiah Likely is a high-priority start with a 30% target share, ranking third among all players. He leads all players in red zone target share and faces a Washington defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in yards per game allowed to tight ends.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection35:58
Jahmyr Gibbs is the benchmark for a 'mega league winner' in a backfield committee. The source has projected him for the highest fantasy points ever for a non-quarterback in their model, driven by his red zone role and heavy involvement in the passing game within a high-scoring environment.
Insight pageJameis Winston
NegativeMatchup4:45
Jameis Winston is a sit for Week 5 due to a difficult schematic matchup against Washington, who blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league. Winston has struggled significantly against the blitz, averaging only 3.2 yards per attempt with a 59.7 passer rating and the worst completion percentage over expectation in the league. He is the source's third-lowest projected quarterback for the week.
Insight pageJameson Williams
PositiveBreakout5:18
Jameson Williams is a recommended flex play (WR29) who broke out last week with over 100 yards. While he has historically struggled against two-high coverage (0.16 target per route run), his target share against those looks has climbed this year with six deep shots. He leads the league in drop air yards, which have cost him 15.3 to 66.4 fantasy points, but he remains WR18 by XFP per game and faces a favorable matchup against Arizona's leaky defense.
Insight pageJared Goff
PositiveProjection33:23
Jared Goff is a top-six fantasy quarterback for the week; he is the second-best QB in EPA per drop back against two-high coverage since 2024, making him well-positioned against Arizona. The source notes this is the highest projection they have ever given him for a road game, and he remains a top-six option when playing at home in a dome with Ben Johnson calling plays.
Insight pageJavonte Williams
NegativeBust23:10
The source strongly advises against starting Javonte Williams, labeling him as a player who 'stinks' due to poor efficiency metrics, including being dead last in rushing yards over expectation per carry and EPA per run. Despite a favorable matchup against a weak Giants run defense, he is ranked as an RB25 and should be avoided if any viable alternative exists.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeUsage7:46
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is cited as a benchmark for high target share, currently ranking ahead of Isaiah Likely in that metric.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveRole7:04
Jayden Daniels is confirmed to be returning as the starting quarterback for the Commanders. He is viewed as a low-end QB1 at a minimum, with injury expert Jeff Mueller noting the elbow injury should not impact his throwing or running mechanics. He has averaged 66.7 rushing yards per four quarters over his first six quarters of play.
Insight pageJaylen Waddle
NegativeUsage35:07
Jaylen Waddle is getting open but is not being utilized by Bo Nix, who fails to look his way, leading to disappointing production. While he remains a 'must-start' due to talent, the source warns that he carries significant risk of struggling again.
Insight pageJordan Love
NegativeValue31:59
Jordan Love is ranked as a sit for Week 5, currently sitting at QB14, though there is some internal debate about his potential to be a QB1.
Insight pageKalif Raymond
NegativeRole28:48
Khalif Raymond has taken a backseat in the offense, with his role stabilizing into a secondary position. He holds a 19% first-read target share within the team's passing hierarchy.
Insight pageKyle Monangai
NegativeInjury35:00
Kyle Monangai is dealing with a thumb injury and is considered 'banged up,' though he is expected to play. Despite a recent 30-carry workload, his physical status remains a concern for fantasy managers.
Insight pageKyle Pitts
NegativeUsage40:55
Kyle Pitts is used as a statistical comparison for target volume, with the source noting that Colson Loveland's recent nine-target performance is comparable to the volume expected from Pitts.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveValue28:48
The source remains confident in Luther Burden as a flex play, noting he maintains a 29% first-read target share—a highly predictive stat—and ranked top-12 in that metric prior to a down week. He is projected comfortably ahead of Rome Odunze.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveBreakout5:57
Malik Nabers is a strong start this week due to a favorable schematic matchup against Washington, which is a reverse slot funnel defense. His separation metrics improved significantly in Week 4, and his competitive drive—evidenced by his frustration with target volume—is viewed as a positive trait for fantasy production.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
Matthew Stafford
NegativeProjection40:30
Matthew Stafford is used as a historical benchmark for fantasy efficiency, having led the league last year with approximately 0.62 to 0.68 fantasy points per drop back.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveValue46:50
Michael Wilson is a strong start and buy-low candidate who has recorded 30 targets over the last two weeks; the source expects him to dominate the Lions' defense.
Insight pageQuentin Johnston
NegativeProjection36:56
Quentin Johnston is projected as a low-end to mid-range WR3. He has struggled to establish himself and is considered a coin-flip start, currently tied in projections with Trey Harris.
Insight pageRJ Harvey
NegativeUsage35:18
RJ Harvey is currently the team leader in target share, a situation the source describes as an embarrassing state of affairs for the Broncos' passing offense.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeProjection37:27
While Rome Odunze is performing well in advanced metrics, the source currently projects Luther Burden ahead of him and suggests sitting Odunze if possible.
Insight pageSam LaPorta
PositiveUsage45:00
Sam LaPorta is a 'mega start' who benefits from two-high coverage and is the team's best receiver against cover six, a scheme Arizona runs frequently. His route participation has seen a significant increase this season, rising from 25 routes per game last year to 36 routes per game.
Insight pageStefon Diggs
PositiveUsage16:21
The source is bullish on Stefan Diggs as a flex option, noting his performance improves with Jayden Daniels (0.32 target per route run) and his route share has increased to 73% over the last two weeks.
Insight pageTre Harris
NegativeProjection36:56
Trey Harris is projected as a low-end to mid-range WR3; the source notes he has struggled to establish himself and is essentially a coin-flip start.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveUsage32:17
Tucker Kraft is a weekly start, having finally secured a full-time route share and consistent target share in the Packers' offense.
Insight pageTyson Bagent
NegativeUsage18:23
The source advises to sit Tyson Bagent, though they note he showed improvement in catchable throw rate (over 81%) compared to Caleb Williams, despite struggling in the red zone. Additionally, he does not perform at the same level as Jared Goff within the Ben Johnson system.
Insight pageWill Shipley
NegativeUsage15:38
The source classifies Will Shipley as a 'sit' for fantasy lineups, despite acknowledging a desire to chase his upside.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00They want an elite steak for their family. This is This is what we're doing, right?
0:04>> Yeah.
0:05>> Um, yeah.
0:07>> Is that your Scott impression?
0:10>> No.
0:12>> You don't want to see my Scott impression?
0:14>> I hear everyone at the company has one.
0:17I heard them laughing. I'm like, "What are you laughing?" They're like, "Oh, oh, Trey's did a Scott impression." I'm like, "Oh, Trey, let me hear your scout
0:22impression." It was like, "I'm Scott Barrett. I'm very handsome and charming." Like, "What? That sounds exactly like me.
0:31I have a raccoon that lives under my deck. He sounds a lot like you.
0:35>> No, if if you want a Scott impression, just go watch Sesame Street. Get the Grover.
0:39>> Sharing is caring.
0:43>> I'm anti-sharing.
0:45That Grover is a communist.
0:56Week five starts sit on Fantasy Football Daily here on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. This is part two. We're doing the back half of the Sunday slate and
1:04Monday Night Football. If you didn't catch yesterday's show, we did the first half of the slate, so make sure you check that out. And listen, if you're a
1:11returning subscriber, you already know why this is the best fantasy football show and channel on the planet. Make sure you're liking the video. Make sure
1:19you're replying with your start sit decisions you need help with. If you're new here though, which a lot of you are,
1:26don't forget to subscribe. Turn notifications on. You'll never miss an upload from Scott and Brett. We're doing this every single day, helping you win
1:33fantasy leagues. Also, if you're listening to this on podcast form, I strongly recommend YouTube. But if you're if you're too stubborn, you want
1:40to live in the podcast world, make sure you're following us on Spotify. Make sure you tap the link at the top of the
1:46show notes on Apple and hit follow there. All right, Scott.
1:51I'm very excited to get the This is the the good half of the slate. Scott, yesterday we were in >> Oh, baby.
1:57>> We were in uh garbage land. This is the good half of the slate. It's still not great, right? But there's much more
2:02compelling matchups that we'll talk about today. Let's kick it off with the Giants. Hold on. Whoa. Whoa. I skipped pleasantries. I'm sorry.
2:11>> The people need to know how I'm doing.
2:14You can't break a routine like this.
2:15This is gonna throw people into a tizzy.
2:18>> I know. Sorry. How are you today, Scott?
2:21>> I am great. And you want to know why I'm great? Because I get to talk ball, one of my best friends. And I get a free
2:29elite expert cooking class at the end of it.
2:32>> That's true. Stay to stay till the end for cooking with Brad. I'm calling it trust me, bro. Just trust me, bro.
2:39>> Okay.
2:40>> All right. For those who listen to my other podcast, First Read, you're familiar with the segment. All right.
2:45So, it's >> So, so how are we You're you're What are we doing? We're cooking a perfect steak.
2:49So, that means well done.
2:51>> It's a pre does not mean well done.
2:58>> Is that Is that from Dude, where's my car >> with ketchup?
3:04Anyways, um [snorts] yeah. No, this it's it's going to be the practical guide to to cooking an elite steak. So, like,
3:12>> and why why do you get to do this? Why this is a fantasy football show, >> correct? I want to bet, Scott. See, last
3:18week on this very show, you proclaimed that Jameson Williams would be under 70 receiving yards. I called it JMO breakout week. JMO indeed broke out. He
3:27hit over 100 yards. He he actually won the bet in the first half. The crazy thing is, as you like to point out, he
3:33left an 85 yard touchdown on the board, too, and you know, his day would have been a lot better. But, uh, so I won the
3:39bet. Your hatred for Jameson Williams grows because now he's losing you bets.
3:43>> And, uh, so as a result, I get to >> I get to, uh, you know, do a cooking show.
3:50>> Yeah. Your true love.
3:52>> My true love. I am the primary cook in my household. I have four kids, >> my wife, and uh, I get to cook. We're
3:59all we're also on a very strict diet. So like it's it's been a pleasure getting to learn this very strict diet. And I
4:04cook, you know, two at least two meals a day, sometimes three, depending on schedules in the morning. So anyways, can we do it now? Giants at Commanders.
4:15>> Okay. Yeah.
4:15>> Yeah. Yeah. No, no. Yeah. Cooking show at the end. Giants at Commanders. Right now though, it's a 1 p.m. game. Over
4:21under 43 and a half. Washington favored at home by three and a half. They do get their starting quarterback back in Jaden
4:27Daniels. Let's start on the Giant side of the ball though with your Gmen.
4:32Obviously, we're calling Jameus Winston a start. Beyond or I mean a sit. Whoa.
4:3640 slip. Beyond that though, what do you got here?
4:40>> Uh yeah, it's also a pretty rough schematic matchup for Jameus Winston.
4:43He's really struggled against the Blitz.
4:45Washington blitzes at the second highest rate over 50% of the time against the Blitz. Jamus Winston Hverages 3.2 yards per attempt. uh a 59.7 passer rating,
4:55completion percentage over expectation, dead last. We have or I should say Chris's projections have Cam Scaboo as a start. He's That's probably right, but
5:05it's not one I'm overly excited about.
5:07He's dealing with a shoulder injury.
5:09We're still waiting to hear some details on that.
5:12Uh his his utilization was really not great up until that Naji fumble late in the game. It was just a 52% carry share,
5:20only one target. He had just two of six red zone carries. If you if you count the two-point attempt. So, it's he's a
5:28he's a sell high. Uh if you listen to Wednesday's episode, you you'd know that. Um but and on top of that on top of that,
5:37Washington allows only 15.6 fantasy points per game to running backs. That ranks third fewest. It's they give up a ton of points, a ton of fantasy points,
5:47but they're a pass funnel.
5:49Cam Scavoo might be too high. I I I get it. I get the ranking, but uh certainly not one I'm all that excited about.
5:57Malik Neighbors and Isaiah Likely, it's a different story. You saw last week just the volume so condensed between the two of them. Uh came out to like a 67%
6:07target share. Malik Neighbors, we finally saw a good ass from Malik Neighbors. The first three weeks it was a bad ass. It
6:16was a average separation score at zero or negative and then week four uh went up. It was like top 30. It was pretty
6:24good. Uh Washington is one of the top reverse slot funnels in the league. They're giving up the third most fantasy points per game or
6:34no, the most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers, the third fewest to slot wide receivers. Um,
6:42it's also a very favorable cover four friendly matchup. Neighbors is also better against the Blitz. Uh, so really
6:52favorable spot for him. And then Isaiah Likely, he has a 30% target share that doesn't just lead all tight ends. That ranks
7:02third among all players. Washington's giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game to tight ends. So, I don't think it's I don't I don't think it's uh
7:11ideologically inconsistent or contradictory or whatever to say, yeah, Jamus Stinks, he's like our third lowest projected quarterback, but we're still
7:22somewhat bullish on these pass catchers.
7:25>> It that's a it's a really hard position to square for me. Jamus looks terrible, by the way.
7:30>> Yeah.
7:31>> Um like [snorts] Yes. to be I guess this bullish on a tight end and a wide receiver. It's a little it's a little much. But
7:39>> Isaiah likely doesn't just lead all tight ends in target share. He ranks third. He's behind only uh I think what
7:47is it now? JSN and Lamb.
7:50>> Uh which is is just crazy. He leads all players in red zone target share. It's just an incredible role. So at a at a
7:56gross position >> you Isaiah likely is a start I think we're too low on. If if you wanted to talk me down on Scataboo or or
8:04Neighbors, um >> I will say >> Go ahead, sir.
8:09>> Neighbors Neighbors uh the report just came out from one of the Giants beat writers. He was he was crying at
8:14halftime and he was seen yelling at the coaches. He wanted more targets, which is something you get from league that like that's awesome to hear. Like in
8:21spite of the shoulder injury uh and that's kind of who he's always been is like kind of a prick, but like you love
8:28that for fantasy. So, uh, I'm hoping we get double digit targets for him again this week in a in a good a great great
8:34on paper matchup, great schematic match up.
8:37>> Well, and and the commanders quarterbacks have been beat up pretty good this year, too. So, that is >> and they're also tiny and bad.
8:45>> They're they they start like two corners that are 5'7. Amique Robertson and Mike Sander still.
8:51>> Wow.
8:51>> Although, didn't Sanders still get benched? I don't know.
8:54>> I don't I guess not. But, [snorts] uh, yeah, I the only thing I wonder, you you cited the fantasy points per game
9:02allowed to tight ends on Washington's defense. Is that >> It's not a volume thing, though. It's been a touchdown luck thing, hasn't it?
9:08Five touchdowns against them already.
9:10>> Uh, it could inflating the numbers a little bit.
9:13>> This early into the season, I really should be um looking at yards per game allowed or really yardage market share
9:20allowed to tight ends or target. Those are the more predictive metrics, especially this early into the season because touchdown luck is uh you know
9:28such a thing and so heavily weighted. Um but let's let's see it by the more predictive metrics.
9:35They are by yards per game allowed bottom 10.
9:42>> Okay. Yeah. I mean Dallas had a great game week one. I don't know that there's been a big time game since then.
9:48Anyways, >> well, Jake Ferguson had two touchdowns, like you said. AJ Barner had nine targets, 69 yards. Eric Soybert had a
9:59touchdown in that game.
10:01>> Yeah. You know what's really fascinating is Washington has shut down opposing running backs. They like even the yards they've given up, it's purely volume.
10:08It's like they're averaging under four yards a carry allowed.
10:12>> Um Seattle couldn't run the ball against them. Seattle's ran on everybody else.
10:15They couldn't run against Washington.
10:16So, I think I think you're probably right on Scataboo. Maybe we're a little high on him, but we can't be if like if
10:23Jamus sucks, we can't be high on all these guys.
10:25>> Exactly. Yeah. So, I Yeah.
10:31Well, projections call on Friday. We'll we'll we'll square this.
10:36>> Um Okay, let's move on or let's move over to the other side of the ball. The Washington Commanders, who I already
10:42noted they get Jayen Daniels back, their starting quarterback. I think that's a big deal um for a lot of reasons. Not
10:49necessarily a good thing, right, for for our pass catchers here. Well, Terry McLaren's going to miss. That's confirmed.
10:55>> Yeah, >> I don't know that it's confirmed, but it it seems extremely likely.
10:58>> Well, we don't have him on the board right now, so it it seems extremely likely. Um, pay close attention to that
11:03though. We're not going to hit him for now. But, uh, do you like Jaden D? I mean, we're calling him a start in his
11:10first game back against a defense that's like really humming right now.
11:16Um, I like it. I I actually really do like it. So, I talked to Jeff Mueller.
11:20I'm like, "What sort of injury doc should we be placing on Jaden Daniels with this elbow?" And he said, "I wouldn't I wouldn't place any. It's, you
11:26know, reinjury risk is a different story, but like in terms of, you know, how he's going to fare this week. It
11:32shouldn't impact throwing. It shouldn't impact running." Um, and like that's been a thing is, you know, he's played six quarters and in those six quarters
11:40he has 12 carries for 100 rushing yards, 32.4 four fantasy points. That comes out to about 66.7 rushing yards per four quarters. And so,
11:51um, yeah, I I like that. I think that's I think that's a pretty strong play. Uh, that's and that's a player
11:58you're getting in a ton of start sit questions this weekend. Yeah, low-end QB1 >> at a bare minimum.
12:04>> I like that.
12:05>> How wouldn't it affect running? That doesn't make sense to me.
12:10>> I mean, why would it your elbow? Like imagine I I took a hammer to your elbow.
12:15Why why would that impact your running?
12:18>> Well, because what happens when you get tackled, Scott?
12:22>> So, he said reinjury risk is a different story, but in terms of performance efficiency, barring that impact, >> it's not a leg injury. I'm not saying,
12:33yeah, I think he's going to avoid running is my point. Because when you go to the ground, your natural instinct is
12:38to brace for impact, which is how he's in the situation he's in in the first place.
12:42>> I feel like that's just so inevitable regardless. Like in the pocket, you get dra you get tackled, you get dragged
12:47down. It's >> right. It's I don't think he's going to go seeking out reinjury is my point. I think he's going to be a little bit more
12:52of a pocket passer.
12:56>> I mean, well, to be fair, it's kind of he like he came into the year with this injury. Like he he knew this was an
13:00issue and like like I said, he had 100 rushing yards in six quarters. I don't know. I maybe maybe but I I'm just going
13:07to trust the injury expert who who knows this sort of thing more than me.
13:12>> Yeah. I I think he's thinking about it from the lens of does it prevent him from like non-sychologically is there a
13:19reason he can't run because the elbow?
13:21No. I think that's the angle he's taking. But there's a psychological component. there's a a team management component that I don't think we're
13:28factoring in in the projection where it's like there's a really good chance they just tell Jayen Daniels not to run so he doesn't reinjure it.
13:36>> Yeah. Uh it's possible. I mean like we have him below what he's averaging 21.6 fantasy points per four quarters. So
13:43maybe Chris does have some sort of dock on there. But um like I said I QB10 I I feel good about that personally.
13:50>> Okay. Jaka Crosky Merritt. He's he stinks. What what's going on with this?
13:56>> He's he stinks, but the Giants are bottom five in yards per carry. So, the the official designation here is an RB25
14:03ranking, which means he's on the fence, but yeah, you you really don't want to be starting him if you could avoid it.
14:10>> Are the Giants really that bad against the run?
14:13>> Yeah. Well, I mean, they were awful last year and they traded away their best run defender and they're worse now.
14:20>> True.
14:22Wow. Yeah, they are. Okay.
14:25Um the thing is he had a really easy matchup last week though and didn't do anything.
14:30>> Yeah. Well, that's that's the issue is he stings. You know, I think he's dead last in rushing yards over expectation
14:35per carry, uh EPA per run, you know, all these kind of stuff. And like even last year, he had like he has two outside
14:44zone runs and then like the rest of the timing.
14:46>> Yeah.
14:47>> One yard per carry.
14:49>> Yeah, exactly. Uh Washington offensive line is not playing good either. um really high pressure.
14:54>> Yeah, we were worried coming into the year this year.
14:57>> They're bottom five in adjusted yards before contact uh generated per attempt.
15:01So that's not great either. But >> yeah, >> so I I'm don't know. [snorts] Do we need to pull up the slot machine?
15:08>> No.
15:09>> No, you don't want to.
15:11>> Listen, you're trying to if you have a name that like doesn't make you want to throw up, you start them over Jakori
15:17Krosky. Merrick >> Kyle Man.
15:19>> Absolutely.
15:20>> He's hurt.
15:20>> I don't care.
15:21>> Okay. JCM is healthy. Okay. And he stinks. So, >> this is a good one. Alvin Kamar.
15:27>> Alvin Kamara. Yeah.
15:30Bucky Irving for sure. Easy.
15:31>> Okay. All right.
15:33>> David Montgomery. Yeah. In this matchup, David Montgomery, worst Exodia ever.
15:37>> Comment on that.
15:38>> Let me give you a couple specific different ones. Sorry. Will Shipley.
15:42>> I would chase the upside with Will Shipley.
15:45>> So, he's a sit for us then. He's not even an on the fence.
15:47>> Yeah.
15:47>> We're We're plunging him.
15:49>> Yeah.
15:50Yeah. This is why you listen to the show, you subscribe to fantasypoints.com promo code exodia and then on Sunday mornings, you check our projections, you
16:01use the front office tool, you use ball knowledge, you use whatever and you you start your lineups because our projections best in the injury industry
16:10on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, but our best version of those come Saturday, Sunday.
16:17>> Yeah. All right, let's hit these pass catchers. Stefan Diggs, where you at?
16:23>> Well, we we have him as a flex. Uh I'm I'm a lot more bullish. Uh personally, you already saw him perform much better
16:30with Jaden Daniels than Marcus Mariota.
16:33Uh with Jaden Daniels on the field, he had a 0.32 target per route run. That ranked top three among all players or
16:41would have ranked top three among all players.
16:43>> Uh his route share is up to 73% over the last two weeks. The Giants are giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game
16:50to outside wide receivers.
16:53>> I really No, no. Terry McLaren. We We only have him as a low-end wide receiver. Three. Really? I I I'm more
16:59bullish. I I would go give me the over and uh I'd say maybe even a fringe wide receiver, too.
17:09Brett, >> you know who we're not high enough on?
17:13>> Are you going to keep up for Antonio Williams? Yeah. Mini Amanra. Yes, I am.
17:17Oh, >> you know, >> maybe. So, clearly one of these guys is ranked wrong.
17:22>> You know who led the the commanders in in routes run last week.
17:28>> Was it >> Antonio? Williams. Mini Almond.
17:32>> It was a big pivot from where they were at before, right? Damn Brown was playing over him. Trayon Burks was getting some
17:37more run than him. Yeah, he led them led them in route uh routes run last week.
17:43He also, you know, if you give back give him back that long touchdown, 121 yards and a and a and a touchdown.
17:50>> So, like he's balling.
17:52>> Every time this guy's on the field, he looks awesome.
17:54>> Yeah, >> I like him much better than wide receiver 52 is all I'm saying. I think he's more of a flex option for me as
18:00well. But >> wow.
18:02>> Wow.
18:03>> Yeah, let's get both of these guys up.
18:06>> Yeah. And like, you know, the the Giants have been good at outside corner this year, too.
18:14So, Deontay Banks has played, you know, better this year than he did last year, yada yada.
18:21All [clears throat] right, let's move on.
18:24The Chicago Bears travel to the Green Bay Packers over under a 45 and a half. Chicago's favored by three on the road in Lambo.
18:34That's insane. That's insane. Uh, with the Bears starting a backup quarterback to be favored on the road in Lambo, that just shows you how things have turned
18:42for the worse in Green Bay.
18:44>> Well, they stink, right? Like, isn't this what you were saying week one and then prove proven correct week one?
18:48>> Yeah, they're their O line looks awful.
18:51They've obviously signed a bunch of dudes, though. Got to see how that looks. And then, um, you know, defensively, they leave a lot
18:58to be desired at times as well. So, but let's start on the Chicago side of the ball. We're saying sit for Begent. Well,
19:04I I wanted to ask you a question, Brett.
19:06You know, we were very excited about Bean in his first start under Ben Johnson. Sure.
19:11>> Didn't look like a material upgrade over Caleb Williams to me.
19:16>> Beent didn't.
19:18>> Yeah.
19:18>> Are you joking?
19:19>> You thought so? Let's hear it. That's That's why I'm asking you. You're the film guy.
19:24>> I'm the stats guy, bro. In case you haven't noted, the stats weren't great.
19:27>> For fantasy football was 100% an upgrade. Well, for the supporting cast, that was the stat I had was um >> Be agent and Keenan both had a
19:38>> catchable throw rate over 81%. Uh Caleb's never done that once in any of his starts ever. [sighs] >> Yeah, I Dude, I thought I thought he
19:47looked awesome. I mean, he ran the offense as designed. They got into this game script where they just ran the ball
19:52like 40ome times, but they didn't they didn't have to do that. I thought he I thought he played really well. So
19:58>> I I I saw him struggle in the red zone or maybe not him, just the offense struggle inside the red zone a little
20:03bit. He did have that one bad turnover, >> but yeah. I mean, was he was he Jared Goffesque running the Ben Johnson
20:14system?
20:16Um, no. I wouldn't say that. But Jared Goff's a top six quarterback in the league. Only Tyson Ba is a top six
20:27quarterback in the league.
20:28>> I don't know that Jared Goff was top six, Brad.
20:31>> I think he is.
20:32>> He wearing a Lions jersey under that shirt.
20:36>> No, >> maybe maybe at home with Ben Johnson calling the plays Jared Gos top six.
20:42I'll give you that. At home in the dome.
20:47>> Okay, sure. Well, Tyson Beant wasn't that. So, uh, but I thought he looked good though.
20:53Thought he looked good.
20:54>> Yeah. Uh the Bears running backs. I'd like to be starting both of them. I just see a ton of upside here. Um
21:00>> well, we need an injury update on Manungai. Like he's expected to play. I know that. But like he is banged up.
21:07>> Yeah. Well, it's interesting. You know, DeAndre Swift had that fumble after he got stuffed at the goal line twice or he
21:12had two touchdowns called back and then it was the Kyle Manong guy show. You know, he got 30 plus carries. Uh Ben
21:20Johnson said, you know, he suffered this thumb injury. Ben Johnson said, "Oh, you know, he's just he had 30 carries and
21:26he's he's feeling it." I don't know.
21:28Made it seem like more just like, "Ah, he'll be fine." Um, most valuable backfield in fantasy by a landslide that he combined for 130 XFP. Uh, no one else
21:40over 110, I believe, or no other backfield. And you saw that with the Lions, too. It's just like typically a gross 50/50 committee. So, you have two
21:50mid-range RB2s to high-end RB2s instead of like a mega league winner. Um, unless you you do get that and then you get a
21:58Jir Gibbs. But, um, yeah. So, you saw you saw a potential Yeah. the Kyle Manangi show. And so there's concern, hey, maybe Kyle Mananga is the guy
22:08because Ben Johnson's sick of this fumble uh getting stuffed at the goal line. Or, you know, maybe it's the DeAndre Swift show again because he
22:17ranked top 12 in XFP three weeks in a row, then he fumbled, went in the doghouse, and now Kyle Man is uh dealing
22:24with his thumb. I I just see so much upside in this backfield that I I want to start both of these guys.
22:32>> I agree. They're going to tilt run heavy with with uh Beijing at quarterback anyways. So, >> I agree with you. Um where you at on
22:39Luther Burton?
22:41>> I I still feel good about him. You know, it was really down week. Uh it was the Romo Dunay show, but um up until that he
22:48he ranked top 12 in first read target share. Uh so, and Khalif Raymond is is finally, you know, world is starting to
22:56make sense. He took a backseat. Um, and so we have Burden projected comfortably ahead of Roma Dunce, although Odun is killing it in the ass department, Brett.
23:06Um, yeah, I think Luther Burton's a flex play. I think Adun and Lovelin are sits if if you can afford it.
23:14>> If Luther Burton went off this week, would that just be like a conjugal visit for you?
23:21>> Wait, why why am I in prison in this uh scenario?
23:24>> Because of Luther Burton. He's put you there. He's locked.
23:27>> I'm in hell this year with the Exodas.
23:29Yeah, that would be that would be great for me. I don't know that I want to have conjugal intercourse. Uh but [snorts]
23:38>> it would be it would be >> I'm not saying I'm not saying I'm just saying. Yeah.
23:43>> Saying in general it's like you're in prison and then it'd be like it'd be like getting to have intercourse while
23:48you're in prison. It's a conjugal visit.
23:50>> Okay.
23:50>> It be be such a relief for you, you know.
23:52>> Well, yeah.
23:53Not quite out of prison yet, but a very nice relief at that. [laughter] >> Yeah.
24:01>> No, you're not liking that one.
24:02>> I [laughter] Well, I had I had something very funny to say that uh you would might get us in trouble with the the
24:08YouTube sensors, but >> Oh, okay. Well, we don't want to make the YouTube sensors mad. We like making money. So, >> yeah.
24:14>> Uh Coulson Loveland at tight end 19. I'm really shocked that Chris hasn't pinched this a little bit with the performance
24:21last week. He just finally came around, you know.
24:27>> Yeah.
24:29>> I don't know.
24:30>> What do you mean? What?
24:32>> I saw me on it.
24:35>> I Dude, we were projecting him to be like a top four tight end preseason, >> right?
24:41>> He has a couple bad weeks, but then he he comes alive last week and it's like we're not even phased by it. I mean, he
24:48had five catches through the first three weeks and then he had what? Six for 57 last week. It's that's like if you just
24:55average it out, it's like almost Kyle Pittz >> nine targets.
25:00>> I don't know. There was an there was an concerted effort to get in the ball. We know the talent is there. That's not an
25:06issue.
25:06>> Yeah. H how much confidence do you have in that though that it's it's the the last week sample overweights the
25:13three-week sample of awful? a lot especially when you curb for the fact that week two >> quarterback >> week two was a monsoon
25:23>> right it was like the score of that game was nine to three because it was literally a downpour the entire game
25:29Caleb Williams gets hurt in that game you know week three is against Philadelphia who has some very very good interior defenders
25:37interior coverage defenders I you know it's not a great matchup for Coulson Leland and then finally he gets to run a
25:42little bit and he gets nine targets it seems it makes sense to Um he had nine targets and uh had fewer
25:51yards than Burden. Fewer >> Yeah, he's a tight end. Scott, >> no touchdowns on the year. Keeps getting tackled at the three yard line.
26:00>> I don't know. I I I I don't feel good about it. I'd keep him a sit. If he goes off on your bench, that's awesome.
26:06Great. It's like, hey, maybe this wasn't the worst pick in fantasy like it was looking in week four.
26:12>> You're calling him a sit? Yeah, tight end 19. That's That's a good projection, Chris. I mean, not a good Yeah, you
26:19could. He's He's not He's not cracking the top 12, right? I'll say that.
26:25>> So, I can't get you top 12, but how how high can I get you?
26:29>> You love this game.
26:31>> I do. Pat Fry, come on.
26:33>> I kind of like the matchup for for Patty.
26:39>> All right. Overonda Gasson. Looks like they're tied in projection.
26:42>> Yeah, the same projector. Kade Rotten.
26:45>> Kade Rotten. Dude, that's so disrespectful. It's against the Cowboys, though.
26:50>> That's a Hansenism. Hanson's been calling him Kate Rotten.
26:52>> Oh, that's awesome. That's so That's so gentle.
26:54>> Over Tyler Higgby. Come on. Come on.
26:57>> I would go Tyler Higgby against the Bills. These are all great matchups.
27:00>> You're out of your mind.
27:01>> All right, this one for you. Close or Michael Mayer because you love the butt chin.
27:06>> Love the butt.
27:07>> Okay, I'll go with you.
27:09>> Over Hunter Henry. Sure. All right, let's stop talking about bus tight ends.
27:14>> Boss tight ends. He He's gonna smash this week and you're gonna regret this.
27:17So, >> just like you did every other >> smash. What makes you think he's going to smash?
27:23>> Because I think he's the primary pass catcher in their offense >> when that hasn't been the case at all up
27:28until last week.
27:29>> It's Luther Burton in the first read and then a oneweek blip.
27:33>> No. Was Luther Burton's gotten mogged in every week they've played. Don't don't talk about >> not by first read target share. the best
27:40most predictive stat we have.
27:41>> Yeah. And you know how I You know how that's charted? Do you know who charts that? I do.
27:47>> Do you know how that's charted?
27:49>> Yeah. How do you chart it?
27:51>> You just look up random numbers.
27:52>> Yeah. Exactly. To to mislead you on purpose. No. First read target share. So Coulson Loveland and Luther Burton can both be part of the first read on a
28:02play. You know that, right?
28:04>> Mhm. Yeah.
28:05>> Okay. Just want to make sure you know that. So, the target distribution is somewhat matchup dependent, but it's pretty evident that Coulson Lovelin is
28:16part of the primary pass concept on nearly every passing down. So, luck will go his way at some point, especially as
28:23he gets into some favorable matchups.
28:25The Green Bay defense has been kind of a hot mess. They're down Eden Cooper, their their mismatch weapon in the middle of their defense that takes away
28:33tight ends. This coverage freak, he's gone.
28:37The safeties are they're playing this too high shell stuff. They're having to compensate for the quarterback play.
28:42Like it's I I I don't know. I think Coulson Love is going to smash, but whatever.
28:46>> You disagree?
28:48>> 29% first rate target share for Luther Burden, 19% for Khalif Raymond, 17.9% for Coloulston Lovelin.
28:54>> What was it last week?
28:59>> We can move on. I >> That's right.
29:02>> I just wanted to really make sure this was on the record. He was >> 35% last week.
29:07Oh, okay. That sounds nice.
29:08>> Yeah, but he was he was like tight end 50 before that. So, >> yeah. And I've already walked walked you
29:15through those three games.
29:16>> Yeah. Listen listen. Yeah. You're a great film guy, but I know it's predictive. I I look at the samples and
29:24generally speaking, three three weeks matter more than one week, >> broadly speaking.
29:30>> Okay.
29:31>> All right.
29:33I can't I can't wait to have this conversation next week. I'm really excited about it.
29:37>> You want to put a bet on the table?
29:39>> Sure. What do you want?
29:42>> You want knitting with Scott or something? Like >> crying with Scott.
29:49Crying with Scott. When do I cry?
29:54>> All right, let's see. Lovelin's overunder is 37 and a half yards. That's what it is on the Vegas boats.
30:03>> Yeah. No, let's let's start let's do Chris's projection. Okay.
30:07>> Well, what's wrong with 37 and a half?
30:09>> I mean, that's so low.
30:11>> Oh, [laughter] okay. What is Chris's projections, >> dude? 37 and a half is three three point or is is less than four fantasy points.
30:21Okay. Like if he scores more than four fantasy points, it's fine.
30:24>> Okay. What what's Chris's projection then?
30:26>> Uh Coulson Lovelin is projected for nine fantasy points.
30:30Okay.
30:33So, where do you want to set the the bet then? Nine. You want I'll give you nine.
30:38>> You think he's going to finish as a top 12 option this week? Is that right?
30:42>> Yeah. Yeah.
30:45>> All right. Well, then the line is So 12 to 13 is 10.3. So, we'll set that as the
30:54overunder. 10.3 fantasy points. If it goes over, you get to do another cooking with Brett. We get to see your your
31:02shepherd's pie or whatever. Breast >> bra short rib. How about that?
31:07>> Brazed short rib.
31:09>> No, no vegan options, Brett.
31:11>> Heck no.
31:12>> You're not going to do a ratatouille or a >> I eat >> 16 ounces of red meat a day.
31:18>> Salad.
31:20>> Okay. Uh, you know, you know, that's that's that's unethical for the animals and it's uh the environment and uh >> it's great, man.
31:32>> Uh 10.3 fans and then if I if it goes under, I get to do a story time with Scott. I get to do a a school of Scott
31:39at the end on Friday.
31:40>> Okay. So 10 10.3 you said, right?
31:45>> Yeah.
31:45>> 10.3. I'm smashing the over on that.
31:48Congrats. Bet. Bet made week five.
31:52Coulson Loveland over 10.3 fantasy points for me. Okay, Packers. Their implied point total is 21 and a half.
31:59We're calling Jordan Love a sit. QB14.
32:02Calling Marshon Lloyd a sit at RB33.
32:04Everyone else >> borderline for both honestly. Uh >> yeah, on the fenceish for Love, but >> Sit Lloyd. Yeah.
32:14>> Yeah. Sit Lloyd. Um all the pass catchers though were calling a start.
32:18So, interesting dichotomy there.
32:21>> No, I love it. This is what I've been saying is it's way it's always been a hyperefficient offense uh for the past
32:29catchers, but now it's so much more condensed. Um, you know, you have Watson and and Golden both what top 15 in XFP
32:37per game. Tucker Craft uh seeing a full-time route share finally a nice target share productive. Uh I like all three guys. I think all three guys are
32:47starts every single week.
32:51>> Nice.
32:52>> Almost like no question starts regardless of matchup. It's just >> Yeah, >> they the Packers have no defense. They I
32:58know their offensive line stinks, too, but they just have to air it out.
33:02>> No, you're you're not wrong. I I'm also I'm concerned with Chicago's pass defense, to be honest with you. Um >> Well, yeah, that's that's part of the
33:10the cherry on top here.
33:11>> Yeah, they haven't really been tested yet this year. The one time they were, it was Bryce Young and he went for 350
33:16something on them in like a shootout come from behind kind of game. So, I don't know. I we really haven't seen the
33:23Bears tested. So, but their pass rush hasn't been great. You know, it's like a 35% pressure rate, which is okay. The
33:30coverage units just been okay. Um, their their corners are very beatable, though.
33:34So, I definitely like starts on all these guys, but curious on Jordan Love. Like I feel like he should probably be a QB1, but
33:45>> yeah, I'm not mad at it if if you call him that.
33:48>> Okay. All right. Now we can move on.
33:51Broncos Chargers over under 42 and a half. Broncos favored over the 0 and4 Chargers by three and a half on the
33:58road. It's a division game. It's a 4pm game. Let's start on the Broncos side of the ball. This is gross. This is Look at
34:04this. There's one green player here and a blue player.
34:10What [laughter] if was the blue?
34:11>> Says if.
34:14>> So, so am I starting or sitting Justin Herbert?
34:16>> Well, if his offensive line plays better, you could start him. If >> his play caller >> had a top five supporting cast, a top
34:24three offensive line, a better offensive play caller.
34:29>> If he was better at playing football, >> for now, he's got to be a a sit. But >> yeah, so there's like right now there's
34:36rumors circling that Shawn Payeyton is taking over play calling duties from Dragon Web or he's going to be just quote unquote more involved in play
34:46calling. Uh our charting team, shout out Zack Swelles, Bill O'Brien, not the the coach, different Bill O'Brien, uh says it's it's not Dragon
34:57Web's fault. It's all on Bo Knicks. He's just not seeing open receivers. Jaylen Wadd's getting open. Nicks is just not looking his way, bro. He's averaging 5.1
35:07yards per attempt and a with a 4.7 A dot. It's It's bad out here in these streets. Um, but I also still want to blame the play
35:18caller. You have RJ Harvey leading the team in target share.
35:21>> It's embarrassing.
35:23>> That's not That's not the play caller's fault, though.
35:25>> Pat Bryant has three times as many games with over 35 receiving yards as Jaylen Wadd or Cartland Sutton. I get maybe
35:33he's Shawn Peyton's new Darren Sprouls, but like come on, let's get Jaylen Wadd eight plus targets per game, right? Or or is just Jaylen Wadd like not not a
35:44guy that we thought he was?
35:48>> So, what's going on here, Brad? Tell me like it is.
35:51>> Yeah, we've hit it this week pretty extensively. It's Bo Knicks, man. Bon Knicks stinks. Uh there's a little bit to be said about Dragon Web's play
35:59calling, though. If you guys go to fadestpoints.com and fire up Ryan Heath's efficiency hacks article, there's all these efficiency hacks. A
36:07couple lowhanging fruit ones, early down passing, motion, play action. He's like like middle of the pack or worse in all of those. He's not really implementing
36:16any at a high level. Um, their 12 personnel rate is also super low. So, they're not really mixing matching personnel to get advantages. They're not
36:24using motion or play action to get advantages. They're not taking advantage of early down passing, which with a quarterback like Bo Knicks who loves to
36:31throw screens and stuff, that's a great time to take advantage of early down passing. Not really doing any of that at
36:36a better than average level. And so I I do think there's something to that. But also, Bon Knicks just stinks, Scott.
36:43Yeah, I'm pretty out. I mean, you kind of have to start Waddle, but you know, don't be shocked if he struggles again.
36:50>> Yeah. Uh, moving over to the other side, 0 and4 Chargers. We have two like borderline starts here, which honestly I
36:57thought was somewhat surprising.
37:00>> We have Trey Harris and Quentyn Johnson projected as what is this? Lowend wide receiver threes, mid-range wide receiver threes, and they're basically tied. It's
37:08basically a coin flip between them. I know Patrick Certain is out this week, but I don't know. It seemed kind of kind
37:16of high. What do you think?
37:18>> Well, yeah. I mean, I think it's just because lad's gone, right? So they so they have to target somebody is going to what be what Chris
37:26says in the projection tomorrow.
37:28>> Targets have to go somewhere. Harris and Quinton Johnson have both struggled to really establish themsel.
37:34I don't know. I have I have like less than zero faith in this Chargers offense across the board. We've we've beat this
37:41dead over the first four weeks of the season here. So we don't really have to do the whole thing again. But
37:49yeah, any other thoughts?
37:51I I just can't wait to talk about these next few games.
37:55>> All right, speaking of which, the Detroit Lions >> Bonanza, baby, look at all that green.
38:02That glorious green.
38:04>> The Lions travel to Arizona. It's got the highest implied point total of the week at 54 and a half. Detroit's favored
38:09by 5 a half. I'm not sure their defense can keep the game that close to be honest with you. But uh or sorry to give them that kind of
38:18lead is what I meant to say on the Lion side of the ball. It's a start if you got him game. Even Jameson Williams at
38:24wide receiver 29. You're you're flexing.
38:26>> Even him who stinks.
38:28>> I actually really like JO this week.
38:30Okay.
38:30>> Well, let's talk about it. Let's let's get we'll let's get there when we get there. Brett buried lead. This game is going to go
38:37apeshit. This is This is so This is gonna be a This overund is 54 and a half points, which is really high. Maybe it
38:45should be 60. Like I feel so convicted in this. Lions are worst in points per drive allowed. Second worst in EPA per
38:52play allowed. They allow the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, tight ends, and slot wide receivers.
38:59They're the second biggest pass funnel by pro. Arizona might be even worse of a of a pass funnel. The their defense is
39:07second best in EPA per run, second worst by EPA per dropback allowed. They're also bottom six in points allowed per game, yards per play, points per drive,
39:17EPA per play, fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. They're dead last and explosive play rate allowed. What does
39:29this mean? Should be an extreme pass heavy shootout with tons of play volume from two very fastpaced
39:39teams. Uh Aman Ross St. Brown and Jameus Williams are like second and third in total routes run. The Cardinals two weeks ago had a game with 80 plus plays.
39:49That so rare. So you have Jared Goff projected for what I believe to be is the most we've ever given him in a road
39:57game.
39:58uh ton of projected fantasy points. He's a top five. He's not a top six quarterback. If anyone ever tells you that, Brett, they're a liar. You should
40:06punch them in the face. But this week, he's a top six fantasy quarterback. Um this is a really interesting schematic matchup as well. The Cardinals deploy
40:16too high coverage 73% of the time.
40:19That's second most.
40:20>> Yeah.
40:21>> But they're giving up, this is where it gets crazy, they're giving up 0.8 8 fantasy points per drop back in these two high looks. For
40:30perspective, Matthew Stafford led the league last year in fantasy points per drop back with just like 0.62, I think it was, maybe 0.68.
40:38>> Um, and so I thought too high coverage was really good for stopping explosive plays. Like that's why you do it. Uh
40:46Jameson Williams really struggles against too high throughout his career, but is a a great explosive playmaker, but the Cardinals are giving up
40:54explosive plays at the highest rate in the league. By the way, uh Jared Gooff, second best EPA per drop back since 2024
41:03against Tu High, so he's really good at it. I I thought this was really good at mitigating explosive plays, but somehow
41:09the Cardinals are the worst at explosive plays. Who >> Well, who told you that?
41:16the fantasy points data suite 2.0.
41:18>> No, I'm saying who told you too high is good at mitigating explosive plays.
41:22>> Isn't that the whole Vic Fangio thing?
41:24You bend but don't break defense.
41:27You don't >> f is a little I mean he plays too high but it's more purely quarters match where Arizona is really only running
41:34quarters match like 20% of the time.
41:36They're in cover six more. They're in cover two more.
41:38>> Okay. Hey, is this is this broadly speaking true or not? That single high gives up more passing explosives than two high.
41:47>> I don't know that I'm willing to commit to Yes, that's broadly true.
41:50>> All right, then.
41:51>> It really it just really depends on the scheme and and the way they're deploying football. Let's let's >> Yeah. So, like if you if you're running
41:59in a a very aggressive cover three or or cover one man in single high, those are easier coverages to exploit deep passing
42:07downfield for sure. But a lot of people play a lot of cloud cover three or they play off cover three or they'll have
42:13their, you know, their boundary corner play off and their field corner play press. It's so it really just depends on the the internal workings of every
42:22scheme with this Arizona cover or two high shell that you see. It's a lot more cover too and they don't really have the
42:30linebackers to cover the hole. So you get this middle of field open look which is very exploitative towards deep inbreakers to deep crossers to seam
42:40balls and you could come up with some really cool route combinations to take advantage of the way they deploy their two high coverages. Their safeties are
42:47also aligned really flat so you get this flat look across the board where it's basically like almost like a four high
42:53look pre- snap. Well, there's, you know, there there's ways to to trick that. And so, um, yeah, the the other big point is
43:04like it doesn't matter what cover scheme you run, you still need the horses to run it.
43:08>> And and they just really don't. And so, >> so, >> um, >> yeah, thank you for the the the X's nose
43:15lesson there. Uh, I appreciate it. Jared Gooff, second best EPA per drop back against too high. Ammon Ross St. round has the league's highest target per
43:25route run against too high since 2024.
43:29>> Uh he Jameson against too high drops all the way down to 0.16 target per route run. That's basically so I'm going Brown
43:38wide receiver one Jameson all the way down to wide receiver 99.
43:43But but like I said they're they're giving up explosives at the highest rate in the league against the deep ball.
43:50Every time you target Arizona, you target wide receivers against Arizona with the deep ball, they're averaging 26.3 yards per target. Yeah.
43:59>> Worst fantasy points per target at deep passes by a landslide. Um, so is this on paper? I look at this, I look at the
44:06data, I look at the schematic, and it's like, oh, amazing for Aman Raw, awful for Jameson Williams, who I hate and I
44:13want to hate. But you're saying you like this?
44:16>> Yeah. Uh Jameson Williams targets per his target share has actually climbed versus too high this year.
44:23>> Interesting.
44:23>> Um it's it's still not great against single high or too high, but it's actually higher against too high. Some of that is they just played a lot of too
44:29high. Like last week was a two-h high matchup. We loved it for JMO, right? So >> um again, a similar type of defense
44:35where they are going to be a little bit more aggressive with the way they deploy that too high. And so I think yeah, he's
44:42gotten six deep shots this year on against two high coverages. So they're they're dialing up deep shots for J Mo against too high. And I I you already
44:50laid it out. The Cardinals just hemorrhage yards. You know that it's favorable for JMO for it's like not the ideal matchup, but it's still a good
44:55matchup for JO. So I like him better than wide receiver 29.
45:00>> Yeah. Uh Sam Laaporta also a guy who's historically benefited. Gets a bump against too high. Uh gets a bump against
45:07cover six. He's actually the team's best receiver against cover six. um which Arizona deploys more than anyone. And so yeah, it's really just like all grain
45:18and like even as much as I hate Jame Williams, I I think it's a favorable spot for and he's run really bad with
45:23luck. Like like the stat I had was uh he leads the league in drop air yards by a landslide and like those five drops
45:31are worth anywhere between an extra 15.3 and 66.4 fantasy points. He's wide receiver 18 by XFP per game. Then Sam Leaporta like also a mega start. He last
45:42year he he averaged 25 routes run per game. This year he's at 36. He's basically playing five and a half quarters per game versus last year's
45:51four. Drew Pigig I think is awesome for him. And so yeah, it's just all green all up and down the board.
45:58>> Jamir Gibbs, by the way, I know we don't have to spend too much time on him, but this is the most points we've ever
46:03projected for a non-quarterback.
46:06The last time this this happened, he dropped over 40 fantasy points and so we were still too low. Um, so that's great.
46:12It is a much better matchup for the receivers than the running backs on the ground. But dude, Jir Gibbs, his red
46:21zone role, involved in the passing game, just being good at ball in a game that goes cr bonanza, fantasy bonanza, it's
46:30all it's all starts.
46:31>> Yeah. And for DFS, it's like this is the best game on the main slate by like an absolute landslide. Like even
46:39if it's chalky, I I kind of just want to lean into that.
46:42>> Sure. On the Cardinal side, C did I say on Monday's show, Jacobe Brassette better be a top eight QB in our
46:49projections? Well, guess where he's at?
46:50QB7. So, okay, >> we love we love to see it. Michael Wilson wheels up again here. He should dominate this Lions team.
46:59>> Don't need a whole lot of analysis there. They have given up in like look at the wide receiver ones they face.
47:04Scott, have you I'm sure you've looked at this.
47:06>> Yeah. Chris Olive had 182 yards. Then DJ Moore got hurt, but uh Daltton Concaid had nearly 100 yards. Garrett Wilson had
47:1526.7 fantasy points and then Ted McMillan went >> 45. Yeah.
47:21>> Yeah.
47:22>> Yeah. So Wil Wilson, he's got 30 targets the last two weeks. The Lions are not going to have an answer for him.
47:28Definitely start him. Definitely start Trey McBride. Lines are the worst team in the league against tight ends as well. So >> yeah, Michael Wilson big time buy low
47:35for us if you listen to yesterday's episode. Um and like Trey McBride nuclear spot like he's >> Yep.
47:42>> Yeah. If we could pull up projections wide receivers and tight ends, I'd like to see where he ranks next to like an
47:48Amirad just because the Lions aren't just giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They're giving up So yeah, he's a top five wide
47:57receiver for us this week. He's basically tied with Aman Raw.
48:00>> Uh the Lions are giving up six more fantasy points per game to tight ends than any other defense.
48:06>> That's absurd. And I look too to make sure it wasn't just touchdown. Look, they've given up six touchdowns, but they've also given up at least 95 yards
48:13to tight ends in every game this season, I believe.
48:16>> Crazy.
48:16>> So, pretty nuts.
48:18>> What about uh your boy Jeremiah Love?
48:21>> My boy? Yeah.
48:23>> Backfield XFP share went from 65% to 76%. I I don't know what to do with this. This is where I really rely on you
48:31for your your fantasy expertise because like, you know, he's got the is he bang he's banged up, but he's also saying Alier
48:40and Bam Knight should get more touches.
48:42I don't know. Like it's just a weird situation. The Lions have been spotty against the run. They've had games where they're very good and then games where
48:49they're very bad. So like I have no idea what to make of this matchup for him. I I would assume the Cardinals will need
48:53to score in this game and the run game is not going to be a huge, you know, important part of what they do.
49:00>> Yeah, I I again I think it's just a fantasy bonanza. Like I just want to start everyone. So I would start
49:05Jeremiah Love.
49:06>> What about Maserati Marv?
49:08>> Uh nope.
49:10>> No, >> it's over.
49:12>> GG.
49:12>> It's over till he gets traded.
49:16>> All right, let's over even then probably.
49:20>> You think so? No. his true love is musical theater. He He only does football because his dad made it.
49:28>> You're going to get sued for liable for saying that.
49:30>> Uh it would have to be false in order for it to be liable. So bring it on. Bring it on. [snorts]
49:39>> All right.
49:39>> I'll win that lawsuit 10 times out of 10.
49:42>> A lot of green here on the 49ers side. I mean, Brock Pury, I did my MVP ballot this morning for the quarter way quarter
49:48way through. Brock Pury was my MVP. Um he's playing excellent. What do you got here?
49:55>> Um yeah, so I mean it's like a really tough matchup on paper against Mike McDonald. I will say like I was looking
50:02at via Fantasy Points data sweet 2.0 is just like everyone's track record against Mike McDonald and like pretty certainly gets a hit in what a four game
50:12sample size but um it's really not as big of a hit as it typically is for just about everyone else. Um, yeah. And I
50:20just think given how the 49ers offense has played and like how they're rolling, I I Yeah, I think Brock Pery midish QB1
50:28CMC midish RB1 George KD top three. God, I love I love George KD so much. Um, and then the the wide receivers, I think
50:38Evans high-end wide receiver three. I want to pick your brain on this. I I found an interesting stat.
50:44So Mike Evans leads all wide receivers in target share on third down with an insane 45% the rest of the time. So first, second,
50:55and fourth down, just a 13% target share. And so I feel like that's Hey, Mike Evans is still separating, still an
51:03ascod, but they're scared about him taking unnecessary hits. So they really only use him when they desperately need him. The rest of the time they just take
51:12it easy.
51:13You think that's what's going on?
51:15>> It seems like it. Yeah.
51:16>> Yeah.
51:17>> Yeah. For sure. It's It's why it's it's remarkable what Purdue is doing with the supporting cast he has right now. It's
51:23seriously crazy.
51:23>> I >> He's so good.
51:27>> He's so good.
51:29Uh George KD looks back back. He looks really good.
51:33Uh we're calling Evans and Debo a flex.
51:36Bro, that touchdown one was incredible for a guy who tore his Achilles within the same like earlier this year in the
51:42year 2026. He tore his Achilles and then he >> looks Yeah, >> spry fast.
51:48>> Looks crazy. We don't need to tell you to start Christian McCaffrey. Debo Samuel is interesting. Wide receiver 40.
51:53We're calling him a flex. Seems a little stretchy. Well, he averaged infinity yards per target two weeks ago and then last week he had five catches, 26 yards,
52:05and a touchdown plus three carries, 44 rushing yards. Kind of back in the the old Debo role it looked like. I don't
52:12know. I It's I'm not mad. I mean, maybe it's a little high, but okay.
52:16>> Yeah, he's a what the heck flex, whereas Mike Evans is a start.
52:21>> Okay. Other side. I I'm pretty concerned about the Seattle passing game in this in this game. And I'm >> Why?
52:29>> Uh well, the 49ers defense has played way above their skis. They also run disguise coverages at the what third highest rate in the league, 40%. Sam
52:40Darnold through over the last three years. So since that breakout season in Minnesota, then continuing on to last year and now this year,
52:47>> he's really bad against this guy's coverages. His passer rating >> his passer rating. Are you saying he's dumb?
52:53>> His passer rating takes a 27 point hit.
52:56It drops from 109 against static coverages to 82.3 against disguise. His average yards per attempt drops 1.5, which is insane. Uh I'm not saying he's
53:05dumb, but he's always had trouble diagnosing coverages in general. He's been a better quarterback in, you know, in a non- coverage read
53:17system. So when when you can do heavy play action stuff and run the ball good, he's been he's been good. But when it's
53:24a progression read through coverages, he's he's been bad. So I I do think this is uh a tough spot for him. It doesn't
53:31mean I'm fading JSN necessarily, but like maybe wouldn't expect wide receiver three output here. Maybe like wide receiver five.
53:39>> Uh yeah, so I I looked at it a different way. You know, obviously matchups matter. Um, so Sam Darnold a couple weeks ago had 45
53:50pass attempts. He had a career-high in passing yards and then last week just 22 pass attempts. He didn't need to air it
53:57out against the shitty Chargers, right?
54:01I feel like game script this week is going to be more like that 45 pass attempt game against the Commanders.
54:08Um, I think the 49ers push him. Like that's what that's what Chris is saying as well. So, I I kind of
54:17I I see this game being, you know, certainly not on Detroit's Arizona's level, but could be a sneaky shootout here.
54:23>> You like the over the 46 and a half?
54:26>> I think I do. Yeah. Like, so like we we know the Seahawks from last year were so runheavy and slower paced,
54:35but that's not really been the case under this new play caller. Uh, so I I'm open to it's it's very game script
54:42driven where it's like if they're trailing or it's tight, they'll air it out, but if they have a nice lead, they'll play keep away. So I I kind of I
54:54don't know. I don't know.
54:55>> Okay, let's move on. Baltimore traveling to Atlanta.
55:03Um, this is uh Atlanta favored at home, which I don't think anyone had this on their bingo card. If we would have told
55:09you come week five, they'll be favored against the Baltimore Ravens. Even though it's a home game, no one would have said yes. Over under a 43 and a
55:16half. This is the Sunday Night Football game. I'm excited about this game. One of my the games I'm most excited to
55:21watch, even though Lamar Jackson's not going to play, but on the Baltimore side, we're saying obviously start Derrick Henry and say Flowers, sit Mark
55:28Andrews, sit Tyler Huntley. Do you have any compelling notes here on any of this? It's tough because Tyler Huntley.
55:35>> Uh, yeah. Well, that's that's an important note. Um, Derrick Henry in games without Lamar Jackson, he averages 22 fantasy points per game. Games with
55:45Lamar Jackson, just 16.8.
55:48Uh, you see a massive uptick in volume.
55:52Uh, it goes from 17.6 carries per game to 24 carries per game. And this is a four game sample. uh his yards per carry
55:59goes down, but you know, he makes up for it in volume. And I think that's what we see this week. They're going to Yeah,
56:05they're not going to let Tyler Huntley air it out to the degree that Lamar did.
56:08They're just going to lean on their horse and and what a workhorse Derk Henry is. Z Flowers obviously, I think, takes a hit from the absence of Lamar
56:17Jackson. You really saw that in his numbers last year, but he also wasn't in the Declan Doyle role last year. He was
56:24now and now he is. And this role is awesome. you know, our charters were talking about it in their notes from the
56:29charting team article, uh, where it's just like such a cheat code. It's like almost the JSN role from last year where
56:37he's getting, you know, he's getting choice routes. He's getting moved all around the line of he's deployed in motion to get favorable matchups. He's
56:45really the featured option. Also, a ton of uh, 13 personnel, heavy personnel benefiting him. And so, yeah, he's a superstar for me. I'm I'm not sitting
56:54Zay Flowers. I don't care that Lamar's out. Um, Derk Henry also a mega start. I don't care that Lamar's out. In fact, it
57:00might be good. Um, but I'm also secretly rooting against a Flowers. I I I hope he has an awful game. So, you can trade by
57:11low for the inseason Exodia. So, either way, it's a win-win >> as I see it.
57:18>> He's been a buy low for us two weeks in a row. People should have already traded for him by now. If they didn't, that's
57:22their fault.
57:23>> Okay. I I want him to go ham. I have a lot of him.
57:26>> Okay.
57:27>> Also, I asked if you had anything compelling. You don't need to tell people to start Derek freaking Henry.
57:31You know what I mean?
57:31>> Well, I I'm telling them that it's possible Lamar's absence is good for Derek. Like, that's that's pretty >> controversial.
57:40Interesting. I don't know.
57:41>> It is. Starting quarterback goes down.
57:43It makes sense that they'd increase the run rate.
57:46>> So, like eight times out of 10, it's a bad thing because the implied point total comes down.
57:52>> Yeah. Red zone drives are fewer >> efficiency. Yep. Yeah, it makes sense.
57:56>> But Derrick Henry is just a guy you could just give 30 carries to and win up against a lot of tough defenses.
58:04>> Yeah. And the Falcons have been a tough defense at that this year kind of unexpectedly, right?
58:08>> Well, that's the thing. So, like that's the flip side is and why maybe he's only RB11 is Atlanta's like the number one
58:16pass funnel. They're a bottom three on paper matchup for running backs. Uh, a lot of the efficiency metrics are they're much more vulnerable against the
58:24pass than the run, but I don't know, man. It's Derk Henry.
58:28>> Right on. On the other side of this, uh, the Falcons have played significantly better ball with Michael Pennix at quarterback.
58:35>> Oh, another interesting note on Mark Andrews, uh, Tyler Huntley targets tight ends at the league's highest rate.
58:43>> Oh.
58:43>> Um, ahead of Jacobe Brcetti.
58:45>> You know what? Dro Dro texted me that actually. That's funny.
58:48>> Yeah. Uh the the only thing is I think that's probably a misleading stat just because the Ravens their second, third,
58:55fourth best pass catchers were Mark Andrews, Isaiah likely, Charlie Kolar.
59:00But even so, um >> yeah, wouldn't wouldn't surprise me if Mark Andrews actually is a little bit better than this tight end 21 ranking.
59:08>> Okay, >> Atlanta side, we don't need to tell you to start Bean Robinson. He's a freak. We don't need to really tell you to start
59:13Drake London.
59:14>> Are you sure? Are you sure you want to start Bejan this week?
59:18>> [snorts] >> What are you doing? Yes. [laughter] >> Uh, Bejian Robinson is the best running back since >> Jir Gibbs.
59:30>> Oh, okay. All right. You're not going to go prime Christian McAffrey. That's the thing about CMC is like, dude, he's lo
59:37he he hasn't just lost a step. He's lost like two steps since the the Carolina days, but he's still awesome.
59:45Uh Trey put in the the producer chat, "Best running back since ever." [snorts] >> Wow. Um Michael Pennix at QB26. Is that
59:54not surprising compared to how he's played?
59:56>> Oh, yeah. So, this is my question for you, Brett. I'm going to let you I'm gonna let you riff here, but let me tee
60:02it up.
60:04Is Michael Penn Jr. the best quarterback of all time? Best quarterback since Tom Brady? Because because here's some some stats for you. Maybe we could pull it up
60:16on the screen.
60:18The the best slash worst offenses in fantasy points data history through the first four weeks of a season. The 2026 Falcons with
60:28Michael Penn is best. The 2026 Falcons without Michael Bennox is worst. It's like of 160 different teams. Even since
60:372024, the Falcons have a top five offense by EPA per play when Michael Penn is on the field. The the the
60:46Falcons have also gone over their implied point total in 11 of Michael Penn's 14 career starts. That's 80% of the time.
60:54>> So basically what that's saying is Vegas is like, h this team's not going to score a lot of points. And Michael
60:59Pennix is like, psych, I'm the goat. And then they go over. And so I think I think he beats out our projection here.
61:06Uh, what's going on here? Is Michael Penn Jr. the GOAT?
61:10>> It's a really simple thing that we talk about a lot. We've talked about it with Tyson Begent and among many others. Just
61:16run the damn offense. That's what he's doing. He's come in, he's throwing a a catchable ball in 80% of his dropbacks.
61:22He's getting the ball out in 2.27 seconds, which is the fastest number in the league. I think maybe Sam Darnold or
61:29uh Jacobe Brassette's up there, too. But yeah, it's it's just run the offense.
61:34Ball out quick. Don't take unnecessary hits. Don't take sacks. Don't turn the ball over. Use Bejon. And then when it's time to throw, just throw a catchable
61:44ball. It's It's not rocket science, man.
61:46It's They're just They're literally just running the offense. Love it. They're They're ran ratcheting up their 13 personnel and 12 personnel stuff, too,
61:55which is giving them some mismanatch type stuff.
61:59It's pretty simple.
62:00>> Is Michael Penn Jr. better than Justin Herbert?
62:04Don't Don't do this to me.
62:06>> Okay. All right. Uh Drake London in across 14 Michael Pennock starts, 3.5 yards per route run, 20.7 fantasy points
62:15per game, over 100 yards per game. That puts him like just right behind Puka and JSN in that tier. Um and so yeah, he's a
62:24superstar. Bejian Robinson.
62:26>> I want to nail down this this ranking or this projection. Yeah. Like I think we're low. How low are we, Scott?
62:34>> I don't know. There's a lot of like wide receivers to be excited about um this week.
62:39>> No, I'm talking I'm talking Pennix.
62:40Pennix's projection. Sorry.
62:41>> Oh, >> yeah.
62:42>> QB26 feels low.
62:44>> Oh, yeah. That's disrespectful even.
62:46>> Like we have Deshaawn Watson and Malik Willis and Tyson Beant, Kyler Murray ahead of him. Those guys all stink.
62:54>> Yeah. Let's put let's in our in our personal projections. Let's put them up to QB 18 19.
63:01>> I like that.
63:02>> Okay.
63:03>> I'd even go 17 because Herbert's 17.
63:04>> Yeah. The problem is it just doesn't matter because only 5% of our listeners are in Superflex league. So, >> Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. Chances are you
63:14you have someone better to start, but things are trending in the right direction for Michael Penn. Okay.
63:21Last game.
63:23>> Yeah. And another fantasy bonanza here.
63:26>> Yep. The LA, sorry, the the Bills are traveling to the LA Rams. Thank god the Bills have played three home games in a
63:32row. It's about time they had to play on the road. Over under a 54, second highest total in the week. LA favored by
63:38three at home. Fantasy Bonanza, you called it. I mean, this is this is insane. Um, we don't need to tell you to
63:46start Josh Allen, but you like James Cook in this one.
63:51Well, for for DFS, uh I kind of worry about Josh Allen a little bit. I I I don't know if this is
63:59right or not. Like, he's for sure the the top quarterback in our projections, but I wonder if that knee is 100%. He he
64:06just had the fewest rushing yards he he had in nearly two years. So, that might like limit his upside a little bit, but
64:12that's really just a DFS note. Um James Cook, I think RB13's fair. He's RB13 by XFP per game. Uh, but he averages 20 fantasy
64:23points per game in wins, just 12 fantasy points per game in losses. The Bills are dogs. Only three points, but they are
64:30dogs.
64:32>> Did you see my uh my yards before contact stat on Cook?
64:37>> Trey, if you could pull it up. Uh, they're averaging the most yards before contact per attempt of all time by like
64:44a landslide. They're at four. I think next closest is like 2.8. eight.
64:48>> Did you tweet this or something?
64:49>> Yeah. Could Yeah.
64:51>> Yeah, I have you muted on Twitter.
64:52>> Oh, is that right? Yeah. Like, could could the Bills lead the league in or could Could James Cook have a 2000
65:01rushing guard season? Trey, did I did I not give you this link?
65:06>> I'm going to go with no since it's not up.
65:10>> We got this one, though.
65:13>> Yeah, there it is.
65:16So 4.12, we've never seen a So 4.1, we've never seen in Fantasy Points data history a backfield average 3.1.
65:25>> Could James Cook have a 2000 rushing yard season? And so why I'm teeing this up to you >> is I don't know, a lot of the film bros
65:33are geeking out over how they're doing this run game. It's like power ma man power
65:43duo but with his zone look. I don't know. It's over my head. I'm I'm >> um They've always mixed up their run
65:52concepts though. This isn't new.
65:54>> Is it Joe Brady thing?
65:55>> Yeah, it's a Joe Brady thing. They they game like they have very game plan specific run concepts. It's been very
66:01fascinating. I can pull some data for you in a second here. Um, yeah. I mean, they're a they're a duo heavy team at
66:0838%, then they they spruce in outside zone at 155, inside zone 127, but then all of the other little gap schemes,
66:16power, counter, pull lead, um, you know, they they mix they literally mix it all in. It's really fascinating. So, and it's game plan specific. If if they hit
66:25an odd front, they're going to go super heavy gap scheme. If they're hitting an even front that plays a lot of nickel,
66:30they're going to outside zone them to death. It's It's great. It's uh it's actually it's it's a very similar approach to what the Lions did early in
66:37the Dan Campbell tenure. They've gotten away from that and and their run games suffered because of it. So yeah, it's a
66:44really great run game. And then when you add the plus ones because you have Josh Allen at quarterback every freaking snap, it's awesome.
66:52>> Yeah.
66:54>> All right, Cle Shakir, you're you're flexing him. Wide receiver 31. I like I actually think I like Keon Coleman more.
67:00>> I feel exactly the same way. Yeah, >> exactly the same way. I think there's >> Sorry, Chris.
67:05>> Yeah, Keon Coleman >> is a flex.
67:08>> And he's gonna play he's gonna play every snap, too. Shakir's not. We know that. Josh Palmer's been sneaky good, too.
67:14>> Although, he's banged up right now. But >> here's the stat I have on Keon Coleman.
67:20>> With DJ Moore off the field, he averages 3.7 yards per route run. That would rank top five.
67:27>> So, give me give me Keon. way more upside than Khalil Shakir too, I think.
67:32>> Heck yeah.
67:32>> But what what's interesting is Dalton Concade's a sit. You had you had every fantasy analyst victory lapping Dalton Concade after week two, week three. He's
67:43a league winner. He's a top five tight end every week moving forward. And then the route share falls all the way down
67:48to 43% last week in a game without DJ Moore. What happened there? Do you think that's right? Um, well, the the Bills, haven't they gone
68:00away from their heavy personnel packages the last two weeks? Am I making that up?
68:04>> Huh? What are they doing?
68:05>> I don't know. I asked Joe Marino this.
68:07He didn't have a good answer for me either.
68:09>> I don't know. And and guess what? Josh Allen struggled the last two weeks.
68:15The shadows betray you.
68:17>> Oh, that was good.
68:18>> Pulled up the bane again. Sorry.
68:20>> Yeah.
68:21>> Um, yeah, that the heavy personnel betrays you, I guess. But uh yeah, it's dropped a lot. Like they were 38% what
68:2913 and and way up there in 12 and now they're down to 21% in 13. I don't know.
68:34I don't it doesn't make sense to me. But I I would expect them to get back to that. That is who they are as a team.
68:41And so Daltton Concaid anytime they're going to run heavy 12 and 13, he's he's a start for sure. I I don't know that
68:48that will be this week though.
68:50>> Yeah.
68:51>> Why you looking at me like that?
68:54I'm I'm looking at my notes, >> bro. You were staring right into the camera, right at me, right through my eyeballs. All right, on the Ram side,
69:01minus Tyler Higgby. Start him if you got him. Stafford QB3.
69:06>> Tyler Higgby is like a star, too.
69:07Honestly, >> I know you you did say that earlier in the show. You did say that.
69:11>> Yeah, >> I don't know if I'm there, though.
69:13>> So, so like the one issue here is like this game could could outscore Lions Cardinals. I think probably not, but it definitely could. It's It's kind
69:23of a lopsided matchup. The Bills are one of the worst defenses in football. The Rams are one of the best, but like Josh
69:28Allen is literally Superman and he could just be like, "Matchups don't matter.
69:33I'm him," [laughter] you know? Um, but for sure, this is awesome on the Rams side. If you if you throw out the
69:40Australia game where they rolled off the plane at halftime, it felt like uh he has 300 yards in three straight games.
69:48He has a game with four touchdowns. a game where he had two touchdowns and finished 10 yards shy of 400 yards. He
69:55has 50 plus pass attempts in back-to-back games. So QB3 I'm not mad at except you said his arm looked Case
70:06Keenum levels of Cook last week.
70:08>> One game I I can't I got to see it again. You know what I mean?
70:11>> Oh. Oh, you know you're saying one game now, but when it was Coulson Loveland who had 10 yards in only one game, it's
70:18different. Not going to say a dude's arm is cooked from one game.
70:22>> Okay.
70:22>> You know.
70:23>> All right. All right. All right. Well, QB3. QB3. If he finishes QB13, that'll be our excuse.
70:32>> Kyron Williams though, RB8. Are you talking about one game? But what a one game it was. 16 carries, 80 rushing
70:40yards, two rushing touchdowns.
70:41>> Check down merchant.
70:42>> 13 targets, 10 catches, 67 receiving yards. He now has three straight games with 80 plus rushing yards.
70:48>> He has 65 plus receiving yards in back-to-back games. You look at his backfield XFP share. So how much of the
70:57backfield work he's getting went from 60% to 62% to 73% to 86%. We're back to like premium 2024
71:07usage. RIP Blake Cororum. It's the Kron Williams show and it is glorious. The Buffalo. So that that usage is like top
71:15three usage. It goes like if that sticks it goes Gibbs, Bejian, Kiran maybe or Gibbs, Bejian, Kenneth Walker, Kiran.
71:25But yeah, right there, uh, Buffalo Bills giving up the six most fantasy points per game to running backs. Uh, also an
71:32interesting note I had, >> yeah, >> the one thing that Buffalo's defense does well is pressure the quarterback.
71:38They do that at a top five rate.
71:40Stafford really struggling against pressure. 6.2% 2% turnover worthy throw rate, highest checkdown rate since 2021.
71:47That benefits Kairen theoretically. And so, yeah, RB8, I don't know. I'd go higher. I'd go higher.
71:55>> You'd go higher.
71:56>> Uh, Buffalo Bills defensive end Gregory Rouso was my first quarter defensive player of the year for those wondering at home.
72:03>> Yeah.
72:04>> Puka Devonte. Is >> he related to Jean Jacques?
72:08>> Yes.
72:09>> Wow. It's crazy.
72:10>> Same same family for sure. That's nuts.
72:14>> Pukuna, Devonte Adams. Start him. I don't We don't We don't have to spend any time here, Scott.
72:20>> Uh, >> come on. What are we It's a start sits show.
72:25>> Yeah. Yeah. We have Puka wide receiver one. We have Devonte Adams, wide receiver five. Uh, interesting stat I had on Dvonte Adams. He's ranked top
72:34three in airs three straight weeks. He has 565 airs over the span. No one else has even 400.
72:44I will say Buffalo is >> Go ahead. Sorry.
72:48>> Okay. Buffalo is like top five against short passes, top seven against intermediate passes, bottom 10 against the deep ball, which is like totally
72:57contrary to the Shawn Mcder Dermit Bills. Um, and so I don't know, 16.68 out for Adams. Like those air yards are
73:05awesome, but I feel like it kind of works against him a little bit in this matchup. I think things funnel more
73:09towards Kairen Puka Higgby, but at the same stretch, you know, it's like, dude, that's a [ __ ] ton of area art. So, I
73:17don't know, maybe wide receiver five is a little high, but um certainly a a top 10 start.
73:22>> We need a a a sixth show apparently where it's it's just Scott Barrett data dump.
73:28>> Yeah. Am I just am I just going down unnecessary rabbit holes? Yeah.
73:32>> Sound off in the comments if if I need to shut up. just uh >> do you need to be told fascinating facts
73:37about our projected wide receiver one and five?
73:39>> Yeah, maybe I just need to do a a separate show with Chris on Wednesdays and uh not record that.
73:48>> Yeah, there you go.
73:50>> You just want to talk about steak.
73:52>> Exactly. Let's get on with it. Trust me, bro.
73:54>> Okay. Okay.
73:55>> That's the slate. That's the week five slate.
73:57>> Let's Let's get on with it. I I'm going to prepare you guys. Cooking with Brett.
74:02Look at this.
74:03We're cooking steak. This is practical.
74:05A practical guide. There's a million fancy techniques.
74:08>> You say bam.
74:09>> Bam.
74:10>> Like emerald.
74:11>> Oh, >> bam.
74:12>> Bam.
74:13>> That was great. Cooking bread. Bam.
74:16>> Yeah. So, so I'm going to give you a practical guide to cooking the ultimate steak. This is designed towards people
74:22that don't have all day to cook. Okay.
74:24Like there's a million I could teach you how to sous. That's a great technique, guys. This is just practical.
74:30>> Right. Right.
74:33Yes, Scott. And remember, when we're doing this, this is like, hey, you got to cook for your family. You got to go
74:39to the grocery store, pick up some meat, and get dinner on the table within an hour. That's what we're going for here.
74:43It's very practical, pragmatic. First cut of meat I like is the pana.
74:48>> No, I've never heard of that, >> which is crazy because I've told you about it at least 20 times every time
74:52you ask me what cut of I send you a picture. What kind of steak is that?
74:56That's a pana. Pana is the top petite sirloin. It has a giant fat cap on it like a New York strip. Um, but it's
75:05tender like a filet minan. Um, you can see the grain inside too. Really easy to cut.
75:10>> Expensive.
75:11>> Really? No, it's the cheapest cut of meat on this on this menu. Um, I get it from my local butcher at like 5.99 to
75:18$6.99 a pound. I or I I get the whole pana though. I don't have them cut it for me. I just get the whole thing. I
75:23butcher it myself. If you're going to get it pre- butchered, it's like $10.99 to $11.99 a pound, which is still cheaper than the other cuts on this.
75:30>> Any tips on, you know, going to the butcher, you picking out a steak? Are you grass-fed only?
75:36>> Yeah, I am. I try to be grass grass-fed, grass-finished only. I I not perfect. I have to, you know, abandon that
75:42sometimes depending on budget and whatnot. But, um, yeah, find a local butcher you trust, build a relationship with them. It comes with a lot of perks.
75:51For one, you can get clear sourcing on all the meat. I think that's important.
75:57Um, you don't want to be buying meat from that's imported from other countries necessarily. You want to support American farmers the best you can. I'm a
76:06firm believer in that. It's also higher quality meat. Um, the standards here, even though we don't really trust the FDA, the standards on beef are actually
76:14pretty good. So, um, support local American ranchers and build a relationship with the butcher because what happens is like, so I get that rate
76:22of 5.99 a pound for pana. That's not public, but I buy so much meat from this guy when I walk in. He'll just tell me,
76:29"Hey, I ordered you two pana. You want it?" And yes, sir, 5.99 a pound. Like, you get that kind of hookup. So, find a
76:36butcher you like. You can talk to him about where he's sourcing his meat from, yada yada. All right. The next cut tray
76:42is going to be a ribeye. Second best cut of meat on the steak. This is it's a incredibly juicy, but it's
76:51marbled. So, if you're not someone that likes fat content, this will not be the cut for you. It's marbled throughout.
76:57But the the key of the ribeye is the outside wheel of meat. It's hard to see in this picture, but it's called the
77:03spanales. That is the most tender part of the entire cow. It's more tender than a flamean. Um, it's delicious. More tender than a flamean.
77:12>> Correct. Yes.
77:13>> Wow.
77:13>> Um it's very airy, but you get that fat blend with it. It's it's delicious. The inside of the ribeye is more like a
77:21fililet minan, but not not quite that tender. So, a little tougher, but it's it's still it's still really tender, juicy. Um ribeye is my favorite steak to
77:30grill. And you have to be a little careful with it. Like, if you're like a guy who likes medium rare steaks, ribeye
77:36is probably not for you. A ribeye is best served at medium cuz you have to render that fat out. If you don't render
77:41that fat out, you're going to get chewy bites. It's going to be hard or you're going to be sitting there trimming off
77:46all the fat while you're eating it, which is no fun for anybody. The whole point of a ribeye is it's got that fat
77:50content. So, number three on the list is going to be a New York strip.
77:55New York strips. Usually, you can find sales on New York strips at some grocery store butcher at any given point in
78:02time. Um, you know, if you just look at the sales going on, they're a very versatile steak. They're really good on
78:08the grill, but they're also good in a pan sear. So, you know, and affordable, relatively affordable. Uh, but they're they're not as tender as a ribeye, not
78:17as tender as a fillet, not as tender as a pana, but they're lean. They got some nice fat content that's easy to trim off
78:23if you don't like it. If you do like it, you can you can just make sure you render that out and eat it. Last cut of
78:28meat here is the filetmenan. the flamemen. A lot of people think this is the elite steak. You go to a French
78:33steakhouse. You know, they're you're probably ordering a fillet. You could do you could do a lot with the fillet. They just have less flavor than the other
78:40three cuts. So, for me, they're they're not my favorite. They are my wife's favorite. Um they are really easy to cook though because they're so lean. Um
78:49you know, you don't have like a lot of fat to render out. You can really build a nice crust on them. Anyways, I don't I
78:54don't really mess with other steak. When I order a cow from from a farm, I just have them make everything else into
79:00ground beef.
79:02Let's move on to how we're going to prepare the steak. First step, step one, this is my foolproof >> Step one, throw it in the microwave.
79:12>> Yeah, this is my foolproof ultimate steak guide. Okay, get your steaks heavily coated in salt. You want to do this like an hour before you cook
79:21if you can. Um, and when I say heavily coated, I mean like very generous coating on on all sides of the steak.
79:32No other seasoning.
79:34This is a lot. I see all these steak rubs people use. Don't use those. Those are disgusting. They're bad for you.
79:40They also stop you from cooking the steak correctly because they create a barrier between the steak and the pan.
79:46The steak will not absorb uh, you know, garlic powder or black pepper or coriander. The steak will absorb salt, so there's no barrier between the steak
79:55and the pan when you're cooking it. The whole goal of of cooking a steak is not only temperature control, but you want a
80:01nice crust. All the flavor in your steak comes from the crust. So, yeah, get a get a heavy coat of salt on there. Rest
80:07on the counter for a minimum of 30 minutes before the cook. There's a reason we want it resting. We want to
80:13get it the exterior of the steak close to room temperature. And the reason for that is the number one challenge with
80:19cooking steaks and getting the ultimate crust is is temperature control once the steaks go in. So when you drop an ice
80:26cold steak into a pan, it immediately drops the temperature of the pan like enough degrees to mess you up. And so
80:35when you rest that steak on the counter, it not only absorbs all that salt, but it it kind of gets the exterior
80:42temperature to a point where it's not going to immediately drop the temperature of your pan 20° and ruin your cook. All right, step two.
80:51Pat the steaks completely dry. This is a crucial step. You cannot avoid it. If you've salted your steaks, your steaks are sweating, okay? There's there's
80:59moisture. Ideally, you're letting your steaks rest long enough to absorb as much of that moisture as possible.
81:05That's what how you get a really juicy cut. But if you don't have time, this is a practical guide. If you don't have the
81:11time to wait an hour, you got to go pat those steaks completely dry before they go in the pan. That moisture on the
81:17steak will create a barrier between the pan and the fat that you're cooking the steak in. Please, please, please pat your steaks completely dry. It is
81:26absolutely crucial. Even if you're grilling it, too, by the way. Um, it it's if you want nice grill marks, you got to pat the steaks dry. Step three,
81:37preheat. My preference is a stainless steel pan. I'll tell you why. There's other good options. A cast iron pan is great. Any type of clad, like a hex clad
81:48or an ironclad is also fine. Stainless steel is the best for crust development.
81:53And then what we're going to do after we cut the uh yeah, after we we cook the steak. But you want to preheat it. You
82:00want it ripping hot at first, okay? And then once it gets ripping hot, you're going to add your beef tallow or your
82:06ghee. I do not cook in any oils. I do not cook in any sprays. It's got to be beef tallow, which you can make yourself
82:14or you can just buy it at the store, or ghee butter. The reason for those two specifically is they have higher smoke
82:21points than like regular butter or olive oil. Also, most olive oils are not good to heat up. they you lose the nutrient
82:28value and they actually become toxic to your body when you warm them. So, you want to go beef tallow or ghee as the
82:34fat you're cooking in.
82:36Step four, steaks go in the pan. Okay, once you've done all this, steaks go in the pan. If there's no sizzle, you got to hear a
82:45sizzle. If there's no sizzle, immediately yank that sucker out. where if we're trying to create a crust and if there's no sizzle, the bond that you
82:55need from the steak to the pan isn't ready. This the pan is not hot enough.
82:58Okay. Um so if there's no sizzle, you pull it out and you keep preheating it.
83:05All right. Here is the the technique we're going to use.
83:10Okay. We are going for what we call a malard reaction. This is where the amino acids on the exterior of the steak break
83:17down and create a crust. That crust is flavor. Okay? We're caramelizing those amino acids that that exterior of the steak to create a crust. That is that's
83:28the money. That's how you get the ultimate steak. So, what I do, 90 seconds per side with a weight or a
83:33press. I have a big cast iron weight that goes right on top of my steaks. 90 seconds aside. So, 90 seconds, flip, 90
83:41seconds, and then you pull it out. Step two, once you pull it out, you rest it for five minutes. What this does is it it
83:50all the energy you just put into that steak, it evenly distributes it through the steak because cuz what we don't want
83:57is a really nice crust, but a raw steak in the middle. We want this really nice even cook. Um, it's not going to look
84:03pretty the first time you do this, okay?
84:05The first 90 second flip, it's going to come out. It's going to look a little gray. Maybe a little bit of color
84:10development, but trust me on this. Let it rest for five whole minutes at least.
84:15Okay. Step three, get your temp your pans back up to temperature.
84:21Then the steak goes back in for 90 more seconds per side with the weight. Okay.
84:26Then you're going to pull it and you're going to rest it for five more minutes.
84:28The steak should be cooked. Now, I temp the steak at this point. I don't pull I pull my steaks at like roughly 130. If
84:34it's a ribeye, I go 135. But we we're pulling at 130. If we I I like medium rare to to just medium. This is the 90
84:43second method is almost perfect for that. Every single time you go 9090, five minute rest, then 9090.
84:50The o the overrun from the five minute of the second rest will get you up to 140 degrees. You're in safe territory.
84:58Um it it's perfect. Step four.
85:03Okay, this is how we're going to make the ultimate topper. We're going to create a pan sauce. And this is why we
85:08use stainless steel. When you use stainless steel, you create something called fond. See that gooey stuff on the bottom of that pan right there? That
85:16sticky, all that caramelization, that's called fond. And that fond is flavor.
85:22And that's what we're going to make a pan sauce out of. And so what we're going to do is we're going to drop I
85:26like to go in with a little bit of white wine. Okay? a little bit of balsamic vinegar. And we're going to scrape all
85:33those bits off. And we're going to add a really good chicken stock or a beeftock.
85:36I like chicken stock. And it's going to create a sauce. And you're going to cook that sauce down until it coat the back
85:44of your spoon. Make sure you scrape all the sticky bits off the bottom of the pan. Okay. Once that uh once that sauce is is thick enough to
85:54coat the back of your spoon, you're going to drop like a tablespoon of don mustard in it off the heat and then add two
86:02tablespoons of butter and you're going to whisk that together. It's going to create an emulsification and it's going to be this really beautiful thick brown
86:10zip sauce that is absolutely delicious.
86:12If you want to garnish it with some rosemary or some garlic or some aromatics, feel free to do that. You don't have to though. the sauce slaps on
86:20its own. The natural salt content in the fond is is enough to flavor the sauce.
86:24So, that is the step-by-step guide to the ultimate steak. The pragmatic step-by-step guide. And now, Scott, I want to know if you have any questions.
86:35>> Yeah, you don't you don't want to finish it in the oven.
86:39>> No.
86:40>> Why not?
86:40>> Reverse sear is a lie. It's really really easy to mess up. Reverse sear takes the tenderness out of out of
86:46steaks.
86:49um or finishing in the oven, I guess that would be a forward sear. Sear first, finish it in the oven. No, the
86:54only reason you'd ever finish a cut of meat in the oven is if it's super thick.
86:57So, if you're working with like a 2 and 1/2 in thick flamean or a tomahawk ribeye or something, that's that's a
87:03time it's acceptable to finish it in the oven. But if you go throw that New York strip that's on the screen into the
87:09oven, Scott, by the way, see that crust on that New York strip? That is freaking beautiful. See how >> you did that?
87:13>> See how rendered that fat is?
87:14>> You did that?
87:15>> Yeah. You know how many steak pictures I send you, Scott? How many?
87:19>> I don't know.
87:20>> It's like a stupid amount, isn't it?
87:21>> Yeah.
87:22>> Um [snorts] >> is My phone's going off and my wife's like, "What's What is that?" I'm like, "U Brett's sending me another picture of
87:28his meat." [laughter] >> Yeah. So, no, don't don't finish your steak. So, if you throw like a New York strip like that in the oven to finish
87:36it, quote unquote, you that thing is going to come out like a brick. and all that tenderness and that juiciness we
87:42really worked hard for it just you just threw it all away.
87:46>> So >> So I got another question for you.
87:48>> Yeah.
87:48>> What's the ideal pairing with like this this New York strip? Are we going mashed potatoes? Are we going broccoli?
87:55>> For sides. Yeah, it depends what your diet is. Um any type of starch is good in my opinion. I like like I'm on a
88:03anti-inflammatory diet. So I eat yams. A lot of Japanese yams. I'll do a yam.
88:08I'll do uh asparagus. Broccoli is great.
88:10So, I usually go with one green and then and then a starch. Um straightforward though. Mashed potatoes are great. I I
88:18like to rice my potatoes. So, I have like a ricer. Um it just makes them super duper creamy and smooth and you can almost serve the
88:28steak like right on top of a little pile of of mashed potatoes. But yeah.
88:34Anything else? Any other questions?
88:37It's easy. This is easy, guys.
88:39>> Yeah. Yeah. No, I think this is I think this is great. I think this is really um entertaining and informative. If if
88:46you're going to try Brett's method and cook a steak, you should send uh Brett some some pictures >> prettier than this one.
88:55>> Yeah. Uh let me know how it goes. If you if you're in the subscriber Discord, reach out in Discord if you have
89:01questions. If you panic in the middle of your cook, let me know. Um you can DM me on Twitter as well. We'll uh we'll
89:07figure this out together.
89:10>> Sound good?
89:11>> Sounds good.
89:12>> All right, folks. That's going to do it for us today. We will be back with our Sunday night reaction series that comes
89:18out Monday morning. Thanks for sticking with us. We are out.
89:29>> [music]
