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6 Players NFL OTA Insiders Say We NEED to Draft in Fantasy Football Leagues (2026)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

39 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 15, 2026
Published
Wed, July 15, 2026
157
Player insights
33
Players mentioned
Topics
James CookJosh DownsD'Andre SwiftGeorge KittleChris RodriguezKenneth Walker IIIBijan RobinsonTravis EtienneAlec PierceD'Ernest JohnsonPatrick MahomesTucker KraftAshton JeantyKalen Ballage
Player analysis

Player insights

157

Alec Pierce

NegativeInjury0:15

Dealing with a foot injury and ankle injury; might not be totally 100% for September this season.

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NegativeInjury0:15

Dealing with a foot/ankle injury and might not be totally 100% for September this season.

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PositiveRole0:19

Pierce is positioned as the true X receiver for the Colts and will benefit from explosive play opportunities and contested catches, though he'll need to earn more targets this season due to roster changes.

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PositiveRole0:19

Pierce is positioned as the Colts' true X receiver with explosive play potential, though he'll need to earn more targets this season due to roster changes.

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Ashton Jeanty

PositiveValue0:29

Ashton Jeanty is preferred over Kenneth Walker III in draft rankings.

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PositiveProjection0:29

Ashton Jeanty is preferred over Ken Walker, with the analyst stating he would rather have Jeanty than Walker.

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PositiveProjection0:29

Ashton Jeanty is preferred over Ken Walker in draft rankings.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveProjection0:05

Despite his rookie season being viewed as disappointing with only 83 carries, Bijan Robinson led the Jaguars backfield in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and success rate, positioning him for potential second-round value and low-end RB1 status this year.

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PositiveBreakout0:05

Despite his rookie season being viewed as a disappointment with only 83 carries, Bijan Robinson's efficiency metrics and athletic profile suggest he can have a breakout year with significant upside.

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PositiveUsage0:05

Bijan Robinson led the Jaguars backfield in yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt, and success rate on 83 carries in his rookie season.

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PositiveUsage0:06

Bijan Robinson got about a quarter of the inside five carries last year compared to Travis Etienne's 38%, indicating he received most of the goal line work and design screens.

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PositiveRole0:07

Bijan Robinson's athletic metrics and film study show strong feel for zone rush scheme concepts, pressing the hole perfectly, positioning him for a significant role increase this year.

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PositiveRole0:07

Bijan Robinson's film shows excellent feel for zone rush scheme concepts and he presses the hole perfectly, demonstrating the fundamentals needed to increase his role in the offense.

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PositiveProjection0:08

Bijan Robinson has a chance to go from a fifth round pick to second round value this year, with potential for top-10 running back production and low-end RB1 status.

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Brock Bowers

PositiveValue0:23

Bowers is going above Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost compared to Kittle's current draft position.

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PositiveValue0:23

Bowers is going above George Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost when considering Kittle at his current price point.

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Cam Akers

PositiveProjection0:30

Cam Akers is mentioned as part of the tier of running backs in conversation with Ken Walker after James Cook and Ashton Jeanty.

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PositiveProjection0:30

Cam Akers is mentioned as a comparable option to Ken Walker in the same tier for draft consideration.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeInjury0:04

Chris Rodriguez suffered a Jones fracture, which has historically caused significant regression in production for receivers like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Sammy Watkins in the same season and future seasons.

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NegativeInjury0:04

Chris Rodriguez suffered a Jones fracture, which has historically caused significant regression in production for receivers like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Sammy Watkins in the same season and beyond.

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NegativeProjection0:05

Chris Rodriguez has fallen about 10-11 spots in ADP since the start of OTAs due to his Jones fracture injury.

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NegativeDepth Chart0:05

Chris Rodriguez has fallen about 10-11 spots in ADP since the start of the offseason due to his Jones fracture injury.

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NegativeRole0:08

Chris Rodriguez does not play in the pass game, limiting his upside in an offense that emphasizes designed screens to running backs.

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NegativeRole0:08

Chris Rodriguez doesn't play in the pass game, which limits his fantasy upside in an offense designed around screens to running backs.

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NegativeRole0:08

Chris Rodriguez doesn't play in the pass game, limiting his upside compared to other running backs in Liam Cohen's offense that emphasizes designed screens to running backs.

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NegativeInjury5:35

Chris Rodriguez did not practice in OTAs and underwent foot surgery, with speculation of a Jones fracture, which historically causes significant regression in players like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Sammy Watkins.

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NegativeInjury5:35

Chris Rodriguez was not practicing in OTAs and had foot surgery, with speculation it was a Jones fracture, which has historically caused significant regression for players like Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, and Sammy Watkins.

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NegativeProjection7:22

Chris Rodriguez has virtually no background of strong production outside of last year, bounced around practice squads, and now faces a potential Jones fracture injury, which opens the door for other backfield options.

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NegativeProjection7:22

Chris Rodriguez has virtually no background of strong production outside of last year, bounced around practice squads, and now faces a Jones fracture injury that opens the door for other backfield options.

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Cole Kmet

PositiveValue0:23

Kmet is going above George Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost when considering Kittle at his current price point.

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PositiveValue0:23

Kmet is going above Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost compared to Kittle's current draft position.

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Colston Loveland

PositiveValue0:23

Loveland is going above George Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost when considering Kittle at his current price point.

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PositiveValue0:23

Loveland is going above Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost compared to Kittle's current draft position.

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D'Andre Swift

PositiveValue0:33

De'Andre Swift is being underrated at his current ADP of RB24-RB26, as he has finished top 24 in PPR points per game in every year of his career and is a rock-solid RB2.

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PositiveRole0:33

De'Andre Swift is the clear lead back for the Bears with primary pass-catching duties, while Kalen Ballage serves as a change-of-pace back.

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PositiveRole0:33

De'Andre Swift has the clear lead back role with the Bears and will handle the majority of pass-catching duties, with Kalen Ballage limited to change-of-pace roles.

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PositiveProjection0:33

De'Andre Swift has significant upside if Kalen Ballage gets injured, as he would move to third or even second-round value, and the Bears lack depth at running back with limited options behind him.

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PositiveProjection0:33

If Kalen Ballage gets injured, De'Andre Swift could jump to second or third-round value, and he was already above RB21 in games where the Bears were splitting carries last season.

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PositiveRole0:33

Swift will be the primary pass-catching back for the Bears, taking over those duties from Kalen Ballage, similar to the split situation seen at the end of last season.

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PositiveProjection0:34

Swift could reach RB1 status if Kalen Ballage gets injured, as the Bears coaching staff doesn't have strong backup options and previously gave Kamara and N'gata significant volume when De'Andre Swift missed time.

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PositiveValue0:34

Swift is going around RB21 cost but was above that last year in games where the backfield was already splitting, suggesting his current ADP has the split situation baked in without accounting for upside.

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PositiveProjection0:34

De'Andre Swift was already performing above RB21 value in games where the Bears were splitting carries last season, suggesting his current ADP undervalues his actual production.

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PositiveProjection0:34

Swift was above RB21 last year in games where the backfield was already splitting, suggesting his current ADP around RB21 may be buying him at his floor without accounting for offense improvement or injury upside.

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PositiveProjection0:35

If the Bears offense improves with Caleb Williams playing better, Swift could reach around RB1 value; if Kalen Ballage gets hurt, Swift becomes a definite RB1 situation.

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PositiveProjection0:35

If the Bears offense improves with Caleb Williams playing better, Swift could reach around RB1 value; if Kalen Ballage gets hurt, it's definitely an RB1 situation.

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PositiveMatchup0:35

The Bears backfield was sixth in expected fantasy points last season, providing a large pie to split even in a committee situation, with only the Rams, Bills, Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks having more backfield expected fantasy points.

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PositiveMatchup0:35

The Bears backfield was sixth in expected fantasy points last season, providing a large pie to split with significant potential for spiked weeks even in a split situation.

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PositiveValue0:35

Swift's ADP varies significantly across platforms—going in the early 50s on Underdog but closer to 60 overall on Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo—making him a strong value pick for hero running back builds in the fifth or sixth round.

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PositiveValue0:35

Swift has varying ADP across platforms: going in the early 50s on Underdog but closer to 60 overall on Sleeper, ESPN, and Yahoo, making him a strong value pick for hero running back builds.

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PositiveProjection0:36

Swift is expected to provide consistent 10-13 usable fantasy points per week as a low-end RB2 with significant upside if he outplays Kalen Ballage or if Ballage gets injured.

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PositiveBreakout0:37

Swift had one of his best seasons on film last year, possibly his best ever, and the Bears bringing back the same backfield without adding competition suggests he's underrated heading into 2026.

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D'Ernest Johnson

PositiveValue3:47

D'Ernest Johnson's pricing versus Chris Rodriguez is compared to the sharper Chase Brown versus Zack Moss comparison from a couple years ago, suggesting Johnson is undervalued relative to his opportunity.

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PositiveValue3:47

D'Ernest Johnson's pricing versus Chris Rodriguez is compared to the sharper Chase Brown versus Zack Moss from a couple years ago, suggesting Johnson is undervalued relative to Rodriguez.

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PositiveProjection4:07

D'Ernest Johnson and Chris Rodriguez had the exact same success rate last year, both top five, but Johnson's carries were often short yardage situations; with more full rushing slate usage, Johnson could show greater skill set potential.

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PositiveProjection4:07

D'Ernest Johnson had a top-five success rate last year and showed strong efficiency in short-yardage carries despite stacked boxes, suggesting his skill set could translate to more significant production with expanded usage.

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Dallas Goedert

PositiveValue0:24

Goedert is ranked tight end 15 and offers immediate early season production while waiting for Kittle to return to health.

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PositiveValue0:24

Goedert is ranked tight end 15 and offers immediate early season production while waiting for Kittle to return, making him a solid alternative at his ADP.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveRole0:26

The analyst has a lot of confidence in Devon Achane's role going forward.

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Derrick Henry

PositiveProjection0:26

Derrick Henry is noted as a Hall of Fame player in the mid-second round ADP conversation, with potential similarities to Saquon Barkley's 2024 situation with the Eagles.

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PositiveProjection0:26

Derrick Henry is described as a Hall of Fame player, positioning him as a strong draft option.

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Dez Bryant

PositiveInjury7:09

Dez Bryant had a Jones fracture and experienced significant regression in performance that season and in future seasons.

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Emari Demercado

PositiveDepth Chart0:28

Amari Demercado is a backup running back for the Chiefs likely to be used in pass-down situations rather than taking carries from Ken Walker.

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George Kittle

PositiveInjury0:19

Kittle is ahead of schedule in his recovery from a torn Achilles and is significantly cheaper in ADP than ever before, going at TE9 (113 ADP) compared to his historical top-5 tight end status.

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PositiveInjury0:19

Kittle is looking ahead of schedule in his recovery from a torn Achilles, and while there's a chance he may not be at 100% in September, the analyst is targeting him for October-December production rather than early season.

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PositiveValue0:19

Kittle is going at TE9 (ADP 113), significantly cheaper than his historical ADP and cheaper than several other tight ends despite his consistent top-5 fantasy production when healthy.

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PositiveValue0:19

Kittle is going at TE9 (113 ADP), barely changed from May (116-117), but analyst believes he's underpriced. If he reaches even 75-80% health by October/November, he'll pay off his ADP given his historical top-5 tight end production.

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PositiveProjection0:20

Even if Kittle reaches close to 100% health by early October (week 5-6), he's likely to pay off his ADP given his historical role as a top target on his team.

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PositiveProjection0:20

Kittle has consistently been a top-5 fantasy tight end whenever healthy, and can now be drafted at TE9, representing significant value despite the Buccaneers adding Mike Evans.

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PositiveInjury0:20

Kittle's Achilles injury is higher up on the Achilles area closer to the calf, which recovers much faster and has less long-term impact than typical Achilles injuries. Modern medical procedures allow recovery within roughly 6 months, with return to performance within a few months after that.

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PositiveProjection0:22

Kittle has been top three in XFP per route run, fantasy points per game, first downs per route run, and passer rating when targeted amongst tight ends over the past two seasons.

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PositiveValue0:22

At his current ADP (tight end 9), Kittle offers elite upside without requiring spending up on QB, WR, or RB, and doesn't carry the same opportunity cost as Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, or Ty Warren who are going above him.

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PositiveValue0:22

At his current ADP, Kittle offers elite tight end production without requiring the opportunity cost of spending up on quarterback, receiver, or running back, unlike competitors like Cole Kmet, Loveland, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and Ty Warren.

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PositiveMatchup0:23

Kittle should be targeted for November and December production rather than September, making him valuable at his current ADP as a late-season league winner when fantasy football money is made.

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PositiveMatchup0:23

Kittle should be healthy for November and December when fantasy football money is made, making him a valuable late-season asset despite missing early season production.

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PositiveValue0:24

At tight end 9 ADP, Kittle is a strong target to click continuously throughout the summer if he doesn't get pushed into the 90s or 180+ range.

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PositiveValue0:24

At tight end 9 ADP, Kittle represents excellent value and is a continuous target for drafting throughout the summer.

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PositiveValue0:25

Kittle is priced as a tight end nine, which represents excellent value given his productivity in games he played last year and the ability to stream production early in the season.

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PositiveValue0:25

Kittle is valued at tight end nine, which represents nice value based on his price. The analyst likes the bet because Kittle was productive in games he played last year, and his ADP is attractive compared to his upside.

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Jake Tonges

PositiveValue0:25

Tonges can be streamed as a waiver wire option if Kittle misses a game or two, as he was productive in games Kittle missed last year at a low-end tight end one level.

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PositiveRole0:25

Tonges was pretty productive in games that Kittle missed last year, ranking as a low-end tight end one, making him a viable streaming option if Kittle misses games early in the season.

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James Cook

PositiveRole0:10

James Cook is due for a big increase in his pass game role due to the Bills' coaching change, with Pete Carmichael bringing experience utilizing running backs as pass catchers.

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PositiveRole0:10

James Cook is due for a big increase in his pass game role under new offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, who has experience utilizing running backs as pass catchers like Alvin Kamara and LaDainian Tomlinson.

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PositiveUsage0:11

James Cook's route share is expected to increase from 38% in 2025 toward the 50-60% range that Alvin Kamara saw under Pete Carmichael, potentially adding 1-2 receptions per game.

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PositiveUsage0:11

James Cook's route share is expected to increase from 38% in 2025 toward the 50-60% range that Alvin Kamara saw under Pete Carmichael, potentially adding 1-2 more receptions per game.

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PositiveUsage0:12

Expected to see increased pass-game opportunities (1-2 more receptions per game) while potentially losing some rushing carries, which could add 1-2 PPR points per game and project to 20-21 PPR points per game—a top-3 to top-5 running back season despite being drafted as RB6 or RB7.

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PositiveUsage0:12

Expected to see decreased rushing role but increased pass-down role, with one to two additional targets per game, which could add 1-2 PPR points per game and push him toward 20-21 PPR points per game—a top-three running back season.

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PositiveProjection0:12

James Cook could reach 20-21 PPR points per game with the increased pass game role, which would be a top-3 to top-5 running back season, yet he's currently being drafted as RB6 or RB7.

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PositiveProjection0:12

James Cook's increased pass game role could add 1-2 fantasy points per game, potentially pushing him to 20-21 PPR points per game, which would be a top-3 to top-5 running back season.

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PositiveValue0:13

James Cook is currently being drafted as running back 6 or 7, despite the potential for a top-3 to top-5 season based on his increased pass game role.

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PositiveValue0:13

Being drafted as running back six or seven, but is an awesome pick at the end of the first round or one-two turn pick, ranked in the second tier right after JT McCaffrey.

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PositiveValue0:13

An awesome pick at the end of the first round or one-two turn pick, ranked in the second tier right after JT McCaffrey.

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PositiveProjection0:13

A target is worth 2.7 times more PPR points than a single carry; if Cook goes from 300 carries to 275 but gains one to two extra targets per game, that would be a massive boon to his fantasy value.

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PositiveProjection0:14

Scored 32 touchdowns in his last 33 games, providing awesome touchdown upside.

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PositiveProjection0:14

Scored 32 touchdowns in his last 33 games, giving him awesome touchdown upside.

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PositiveUsage0:14

Had 8 games with 60% or more snap share last season (vs. just 1 the prior year), and even with Raheem Davis taking some carries, Cook's increased pass-game role should maintain his snap share around 55-65% this season.

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PositiveUsage0:14

Had eight games with 60% or more of the snaps last season (8 of 16), up from just one game the prior year, showing increased snap share; even with Raheem Davis taking a few carries, Cook's pass-game role should maintain him at 55-65% snap rate this season.

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PositiveProjection0:26

James Cook is preferred over Ken Walker and is in a higher tier for draft consideration.

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PositiveValue0:29

James Cook is ranked higher than Kenneth Walker III and is not being taken over by Walker in draft discussions.

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PositiveProjection0:29

James Cook is preferred over Ken Walker in draft rankings, with the analyst stating he would not take Walker over Cook.

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Josh Downs

PositiveRole0:14

Role is expected to change significantly; has played just 6% of snaps in 12 personnel throughout his career and essentially never when two tight ends are on the field, but this must change this year.

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PositiveRole0:14

Role is expected to change significantly; has played only 6% of snaps in 12 personnel historically and essentially never on the outside, but reports indicate he'll see more opportunities and was spotted practicing on the outside.

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PositiveRole0:15

Unless the Colts sign Keenan Allen or Stefon Diggs, it is wheels up on Josh Downs getting a full-time route share this season.

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PositiveRole0:15

Seen practicing on the outside, which is something new; this gives him the opportunity to show he can be a Z receiver, which is huge because the Z receiver usually lines up on the side of the tight end and doesn't have to play on the line of scrimmage.

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PositiveUsage0:15

Seen practicing on the outside as a Z receiver, which is new and significant; in 11 personnel he'll be the slot receiver, and the team is getting him in motion and situations to avoid press coverage.

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PositiveProjection0:16

Extremely bullish on his prospects; even if the Colts add a guy like Keenan Allen or Deebo Samuel in a third-down specialist role with 50-60% route share, there's still opportunity for Downs to play in the outside role.

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PositiveProjection0:16

Extremely bullish on his prospects; even if the team adds a receiver like Keenan Allen or Deebo Samuel in a third-down specialist role (50-60% route share), Downs should still have opportunity to play the outside role.

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PositiveRole0:16

Downs is expected to play in the flanker/outside role in Steichen's offense, which uses motion to get receivers in optimal positions. This represents a significant change from his past where he rarely played outside, even when other receivers were injured.

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PositiveRole0:16

Downs is expected to play in the flanker/outside receiver role in Steichen's offense, which uses motion to get receivers in optimal positions. This represents a significant expansion from his past usage where he rarely played outside.

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PositiveProjection0:17

Analyst projects Downs will achieve a 75%+ route share this season as long as he stays healthy, which would be a virtual lock unless the Colts sign a major free agent receiver.

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PositiveUsage0:17

A virtual lock to achieve 75% plus route share this season as long as he's healthy, unless the Colts sign Stefon Diggs.

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PositiveUsage0:17

A virtual lock to achieve 75%+ route share this season unless the team signs Stefon Diggs, which hasn't been reported as a realistic possibility.

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PositiveValue0:17

Downs is currently going at WR43 in ADP, up 20 spots from May 1st, but analyst believes he's still undervalued. At 70 catches and 800 yards, he would pay off his ADP with additional upside.

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PositiveValue0:17

Downs' ADP has risen significantly from around 110-115 in May to WR43 currently, but the analyst still views him as underpriced at that level, calling it 'a little too cheap for him.'

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PositiveProjection0:17

If Downs reaches 70 catches for 800 yards at his current ADP of WR43, he will more than pay off that draft cost with additional upside potential.

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PositiveBreakout0:18

Analyst expects Downs to have an awesome season at age 25 entering a bigger role, fully healthy after an ankle injury limited him last year. He's trending up as a target despite ADP rising from 110-115 to WR43.

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PositiveBreakout0:18

At 25 years old and fully healthy entering a bigger role, Downs is positioned to have an outstanding season after being hampered by an ankle injury that kept him from being fully healthy in September last year.

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PositiveRole0:21

Zane Dehghany discovered and tweeted out a video of Josh Downs discussing his role in the offense from a local reporter, which caught significant traction and sparked his broader OTA analysis work.

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PositiveRole0:21

Zane Dehghany discovered a video of Josh Downs discussing his role in the offense from a local reporter, which sparked his interest in tracking OTA insights for fantasy purposes.

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Julio Jones

PositiveInjury6:59

Julio Jones experienced production decline after suffering a Jones fracture, serving as a historical reference point for the impact such injuries can have on player performance.

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Kalen Ballage

PositiveRole0:33

Kalen Ballage is expected to serve as a change-of-pace back in the Bears backfield with De'Andre Swift as the clear lead back.

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PositiveRole0:33

Ballage will handle the early-down running duties for the Bears, with Swift taking over pass-catching responsibilities in a split similar to late last season.

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NegativeInjury0:34

If Ballage gets hurt, the Bears don't have quality backup options, as the coaching staff doesn't like Roshan Johnson and British Brown is only a backup-backup.

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Kenneth Walker III

PositiveProjection0:30

Kenneth Walker III could realistically finish as RB4 if he stays healthy all season, with the potential to be placed in a Jamal Charles-type role under Andy Reid with Eric Bieniemy returning and Matt Nagy gone.

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PositiveValue0:30

Kenneth Walker's price is fair, and he could be in the conversation with elite backs like Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, James Cook, Chase Brown, and Derrick Henry in the same tier.

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PositiveMatchup0:30

The Chiefs backfield has 12th-ranked expected touchdowns over the last two seasons, just behind elite teams like the Ravens, 49ers, and Eagles, providing significant touchdown equity even if Patrick Mahomes is at 80% of his former self post-ACL.

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PositiveRole0:30

The Chiefs backfield has significant touchdown equity with 12th-ranked expected touchdowns over the last two seasons, and Walker could operate in a productive Damien Williams-type role under Andy Reid with Eric Bieniemy returning.

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PositiveRole0:31

Kenneth Walker III is being compared to the Damien Williams role under Andy Reid, which was a highly productive fantasy role, with Walker having superior talent compared to Williams.

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PositiveProjection0:32

Kenneth Walker could potentially finish as RB4 overall if he stays healthy all season, behind only Gibbs, Bijan, and CMC.

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PositiveProjection0:32

Kenneth Walker III has significant touchdown upside and could push for 15 touchdowns this season, with no other roster competition for goal-line carries.

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PositiveProjection0:32

Kenneth Walker III has significant touchdown upside and could realistically push for 15 touchdowns this season with the majority of goal-line carries.

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PositiveRole0:32

Walker should get the majority of goal-line carries with no other roster competition for those opportunities.

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Mark Andrews

PositiveValue0:24

Andrews is a reliable plug-and-play tight end option at his ADP who provides immediate early season production, contrasting with Kittle's late-season availability.

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PositiveValue0:24

Andrews is described as a boring but reliable plug-and-play option at tight end who provides immediate early season production, offering a contrast to Kittle's late-season timeline.

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Patrick Mahomes

PositiveProjection0:27

Patrick Mahomes is expected to be back likely for week one after a knee injury and is critical to elevating the Chiefs offense, as he transforms them from worst to top-five in the league.

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PositiveInjury0:27

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a knee injury and is expected to be back likely for week one, but his performance level upon return is critical to the Chiefs offense's success.

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PositiveProjection0:27

Mahomes is expected to be fine and will be the key facilitator of the Chiefs offense, transforming them from the worst offense to a top-five offense just by being on the field.

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PositiveInjury0:28

Everything the analyst is reading indicates that Patrick Mahomes is going to be fine after his knee injury.

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Samaje Perine

NegativeRole0:10

Samaje Perine will compete with Bashaul Toon for third-down snaps in the pass game, which could limit Toon's upside.

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Sammy Watkins

PositiveInjury7:09

Sammy Watkins had a Jones fracture and experienced significant regression in performance that season and in future seasons.

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Saquon Barkley

PositiveMatchup0:27

Ken Walker's situation with the Chiefs is being compared to Saquon Barkley's 2024 season with the Eagles, with similar ADP, running style, and boom-bust potential reliant on big plays.

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PositiveProjection0:27

Saquon Barkley is mentioned as a comparable player to Ken Walker in terms of ADP and running style, with similar boom-bust characteristics.

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Stefon Diggs

PositiveProjection0:29

There is a possibility of the Chiefs adding Stefon Diggs, which would further elevate the floor of the Chiefs offense.

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PositiveProjection0:29

There is a possibility of the Chiefs adding Stefon Diggs, which would elevate the floor of the offense.

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Travis Etienne

PositiveUsage0:06

Travis Etienne had around 38% of inside five carries last year, compared to Basil Tuten's quarter of those carries.

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NegativeRole0:08

Travis Etienne has always been a little overrated as a pass catcher, suggesting his value may be inflated in fantasy drafts.

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PositiveRole0:08

Travis Etienne has always been a little overrated as a pass catcher, but the Jaguars' scheme with designed screens will be conducive to his receiving touches regardless.

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PositiveRole0:08

Travis Etienne has always been a little overrated as a pass catcher, but the Jaguars' scheme with designed screens will be conducive to his touches regardless.

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NegativeRole3:24

Travis Etienne left the Jaguars for the Saints in free agency, opening up the backfield for other running backs.

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NegativeDepth Chart3:24

Travis Etienne left the Jaguars for the Saints in free agency, opening up significant fantasy production opportunity in the Jacksonville backfield.

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Trey McBride

PositiveValue0:23

McBride is going above Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost compared to Kittle's current draft position.

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PositiveValue0:23

McBride is going above George Kittle in ADP, creating an opportunity cost when considering Kittle at his current price point.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveValue0:20

Tucker Kraft is going three and a half rounds ahead of Kittle in ADP despite also coming off a significant injury, creating a relative value discrepancy.

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PositiveValue0:20

Kraft is going three and a half rounds ahead of Kittle despite also coming off a significant injury, suggesting he may be overvalued relative to Kittle's discount.

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PositiveInjury0:23

Kraft got injured earlier in the year than Kittle but should have more injury optimism than Kittle given the nature of his injury.

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PositiveInjury0:23

Kraft got injured earlier in the year than Kittle but is being taken at 80 overall, suggesting less injury optimism for Kittle despite the positive nature of Kittle's injury.

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Tyler Warren

PositiveUsage0:18

Tyler Warren is expected to lead the Colts in targets, though perhaps not by a significant margin this season given the expanded receiving role opportunities.

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Zach Charbonnet

PositiveRole0:26

Zach Charbonnet was Ken Walker's split-role partner in Seattle and is no longer with the Chiefs, opening up more opportunities for Walker.

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Episode Transcript

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0:00Yo, what is going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily. I am Grant Barfield back with another awesome video. Today we've enlisted [music] our guy Zane Dehghany.
0:09You can follow him on Twitter at DehghanyZane.
0:12Put that in the show notes down below to so you don't miss out on any of Zane's takeaways. He has been grinding his ass
0:18off on Twitter finding useful nuggets for fantasy football going through all of our all of the beat writers on Twitter and kind of their takeaways from
0:26OTA. So I have had had [music] this in my mind. We got to have him on the show to kind of break down some of his
0:32biggest takeaways as training camp start to gear up here in a couple of weeks.
0:45Zane, are your are your eyes and fingers tired yet from all the grinding? You've you've really you put your nose to the
0:51grindstone, man. It's it's it's good to see. You got like the RotoWire old-school RotoWire grinder going on. I love it.
0:57>> Yeah. You know, the funny thing is is somebody messaged me someone DM'd me and I didn't I don't even know them, but
1:03they're like you're like Shefter with a database and some other stuff like and then applying that to fantasy football.
1:09Um and I kind of like that that thought process. But no, it's funny cuz this is this is stuff that I would always do
1:15kind of in the background um just to get an edge for my own like fantasy purposes. But I ended up just saying,
1:21"Hey, I'm going to tweet this out." I saw a video about a month and a half ago of Josh Downs talking about his role um
1:27in the offense from some local like reporter that he was working with. And then I tweeted that out and that that
1:33ended up catching fire and then I was like, "What if I just keep doing this?"
1:37Um and you know, posting it and people are starting to really catch on to it.
1:42So I I figured why not just keep it up and and see what happens.
1:47>> Well, you do it from a great fantasy angle. So that's what we're going to be talking today. It's just kind of your
1:51biggest takeaways, some of the biggest things that you've seen, you've noticed either uh from an injury perspective or mainly we're going to be talking about
1:58role changes for this particular episode. And we'll get started with I think the biggest role change and then maybe the the, you know, kind of the
2:04biggest thing to monitor this season is this Jags backfield. There's going to be some fantasy production from this backfield after Travis Etienne uh, left
2:12for the Saints in free agency.
2:14Uh, this is D'Ernest Johnson's big chance, man. Uh, Chris Rodriguez, you know, they signed him in free agency, but he's been dealing with a little bit
2:20of a foot injury. Still kind of unclear whether or not he's going to be ready for training camp here next week. But,
2:27what have you seen? What have you you read from D'Ernest Johnson and are you buying it? I think you had a great tweet
2:32where you were basically saying like, you know, D'Ernest Johnson pricing versus Chris Rodriguez is like the sharper Chase Brown versus Zack Moss
2:40from a couple years ago. And I think that's just like nail on the head with that one. Do you still feel that way?
2:44D'Ernest Johnson's come up in price even more since that tweet, probably.
2:47>> Yeah, I still feel that way. Um, I know like the metrics from last year, especially with D'Ernest Johnson um, and
2:53and Chris Rodriguez, their success rate was basically the exact same and they were both like top five in success rate last year. And um, a lot of that comes
3:00back to the fact that and then you you think about like the explosive run rate um, for both of these guys and it was
3:06kind of low. But, a lot of that comes back to just the usage and how they actually utilize both players. And a lot
3:12of D'Ernest Johnson's carries were short yardage type of carries, right? And so, he just he just worked with what he ended up with, which was um, you know,
3:21stacked boxes and then ended up being successful in doing that. And I think that that just shows like what his what
3:27his skill set can be on top of if you give him like a more full rushing slate, what that looks like. I think the main
3:35thing for Chris Rodriguez is that, you know, those he wasn't practicing in OTAs at all and there was this like weird
3:43thing going on in the background. I think there was an insider that that typically posts, you know, random Jags news that said, he's I think that he has
3:51a foot injury.
3:53And then a day or two later, it comes out that he had surgery on his foot. And the speculation is that it was a Jones
4:01fracture. Um I've had some people reach out to me in my DMs to kind of help confirm that. But, you know, nothing
4:08that I think is like 100% guaranteed. Uh so, I haven't like actually reported that yet. Uh but we know what a Jones fracture can do to a
4:17player. Uh this actually came up in a discussion with you, which gave me the the thought process in the article, but
4:23you were talking about Julio Jones and his production with a Jones fracture um coming off a Jones fracture.
4:29Uh and then I started digging deeper and saw that Dez Bryant, Sammy Watkins, other players have had this and they've had significant regression in what
4:37they're able to do on the field uh that season and even in future seasons.
4:42Um so, we're talking about a guy like Chris Rodriguez who has virtually no background in having like very, very strong production other than last year,
4:51bouncing around practice squads, and then we're adding on this injury, which just opens the door for Basil Tuten.
4:57>> Yeah, we haven't seen correct me if I'm wrong. I none no running backs come up to the top of my head of, you know,
5:03particularly with a Jones fracture. But yeah, like you mentioned, I mean, the receiver production has fallen off and in particular, it it was kind of like
5:10that was kind of the beginning of the end for Sammy Watkins once he got hurt.
5:13He dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career, but that that one in particular, um you know, really robbed him of his
5:19explosiveness and Chris Rodriguez like you know, he's been a fine, you know, carrier, you know, early down ball carrier, but I I don't think anybody is
5:26going to sit here and say he's the world's most explosive player in the NFL. He's always had pretty decent yards after contact metrics, but, you know,
5:34even if he's less than 100% um yeah, man, I I it's not good. It's definitely not good for his outlook. We've seen the spread
5:42in ADP start to widen. Chris Rodriguez has fallen about 10 or 11 spots since open. Uh but Bijan Robinson, you know, I
5:48think everybody's kind of like seen last year his rookie season as a little bit of a disappointment. Only had 83 carries, clearly was the RB2 behind
5:57Travis Etienne all of last year. But he actually, dude, he led this backfield in yards after contact per attempt. He led
6:02this backfield in missed tackles forced per attempt. And you mentioned the success rate, he led it in success rate as well. And again, small sample, 83
6:08carries, but he you know, the small sample efficiency was certainly there for Tueton. He also, you know, got about a quarter of the inside five carries
6:16last year. Travis Etienne was around 38%. So Tueton getting most of the goal line work, a lot of design screens.
6:23I'm wheels up on Tueton. I think he's got significant league-winning potential even in the fifth round. I do I I 100%
6:31with you if this were two or three years ago, we'd probably be drafting Tueton in like the seventh round or eighth round.
6:36Uh but markets have just gotten a lot sharper.
6:38>> Yeah. The funny thing is I I like hearing this from a guy who has a Tony Boselli jersey in the background.
6:44>> I got >> Um if >> Jags only Hall of Famer.
6:46>> Yeah. Yeah, for the younger audience, beast, right? Like talking about going back to the Mark Brunell days.
6:52Um and Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.
6:54Um but yeah, I completely agree. So, when you're thinking about the biggest upside you can get in fantasy, you're really thinking about a guy who can also
7:03do the pass catching work. And that's something that Chris Rodriguez doesn't do, right? And we haven't seen that in his history even going back to college.
7:11And then we think about Bijan Robinson, um like you said, you mentioned the metrics. He's got all of the all all
7:17positive momentum in the metrics, looked better than Travis Etienne in all of those metrics as well. Um and yes, sure, it was on an 83 carry sample size, but
7:28um This is I think when you really when you really when you when you really boil it down, you think about his um
7:35Spork, his Raz, all of that kind of stuff, and then you think about the success the explosive rush rate. He didn't have the explosive rush rate, but
7:43his athletic metrics point to the fact that he can do that. And then I actually watched all of the film last year, too,
7:49and broke it down. I think, Graham, you usually do stuff like that, too.
7:53Um but his feel for zone rush scheme uh concepts, like he presses the hole perfectly, exactly what you would teach a running back to do. And I I just think
8:02that that the wheels are really up for him this year, that he has a chance to really go from that fifth round pick all
8:09the way up to maybe second round value this year. I'm not talking about a five like a top five running back by any
8:13means, but we're talking about like a top 10. That that is in the range of possibilities for him.
8:18>> Yeah, definitely like low-end RB1.
8:19That's kind of what I'm imagining as well. And you mentioned a second ago that you know, Chris Rodriguez just doesn't play in the pass game. Well, I
8:25mean, Liam Cohen, I mean, this is one of the biggest tenets of his offense is designed screens to running backs. And
8:31last year, the Jaguars had 21 pass attempts uh designed screens to their you know, players aligned out of the backfield.
8:38That tied the 49ers for fifth most. Only the Bears, Bucks, Vikings, and Browns had more. And I think some of that with
8:44the Browns was like they were just getting smoked in some games and didn't have very very good receiver play. And they used Harold Landry a little bit,
8:49too, in that that role as kind of like a backfield receiver. Uh so, I mean, Liam Cohen is going to dial up the designed
8:55screens no matter if it's like a good pass catcher or not. I think Travis Etienne has always been a little overrated as a pass catcher. So, even if
9:02we don't think Etienne's like Christian McCaffrey out there, obviously, Alvin Kamara, it kind of probably won't matter cuz this is going to be a pretty
9:08conducive scheme for those types of touches.
9:11>> There's also been just one last thing on this. There's also been some discussion, and this has been kind of like a meta
9:17discussion across the NFL, but I think even Liam Cohen mentioned this. Um you don't really want to give up what you're doing on a given play by who you
9:27have in in terms of personnel, right?
9:29And so, when you have Chris Rodriguez in the game, it's pretty obvious that it's going to be a run play. And Liam Cohen
9:35pretty much stressed like, "Hey, we need this to be multiple. We need this to be something where people aren't able to
9:42get like a tip of what we're kind kind of trying to do.
9:45Uh so that just points to Bashaul Toon again because he's a factor in in both the run and pass game.
9:51>> Yeah, Laquon Allen's going to take some third down snaps for sure. He's just a big body pass protector, but I mean he
9:55didn't earn any targets last year. I believe it was only like 11 or 12 on his you know, he ran significantly more
10:01routes than Bashaul Toon. That's like the one thing that could kind of really hurt the like totality of his upside, you know, cuz like you make the Chase
10:09Brown comparison and the Chase Brown just plays almost every snap. He does have to deal with Samaje Perine in the pass game this year on third downs, but
10:17I think that's the one big thing. If Toon can kind of just like even that or just like play 60/40 on some of the long
10:22down and distance or third down snaps, could be a massive massive boon to his fantasy value.
10:28Uh speaking of players playing more in the passing game Zane, you're reading that James Cook is due for a big increase role in the pass game and it
10:36has to do with this play caller change and kind of coaching change that they have this season, right?
10:41>> Yeah, so um they obviously upgraded Joe Brady to be head coach, which means that there's an opening at that offensive coordinator
10:49position. They brought in Pete Carmichael who has experience with Alvin Kamara and uh LaDainian Tomlinson, which we're dating ourselves and we're
10:57starting to get into LaDainian Tomlinson stats. Um but the way that they've utilized running backs when Pete Carmichael has been a a part of offenses is to
11:06basically give them a bigger pass catcher role.
11:10Um and so some things that I've been reading, you know, there's been quotes out there about uh Joe Brady saying hey, we need to lighten
11:16the workload a little bit for James Cook. And then you piecemeal that with what they're thinking about in the pass game and it's like, well, can you really
11:23increase his volume if you're trying to decrease his volume? And I think the answer based off of what I was reading
11:29is really between the 20s is where they want to start giving maybe a guy like Raheem Davis some more opportunities in
11:36the rush game to just take the hits, the wear and tear off of James Cook so he can be fresh for the stretch.
11:42Um but they would like to have James Cook more [snorts] involved in the pass game and this is coming from three
11:48inside sources um from the from the Bills and that's kind of how I try to do this reporting too is [snorts] when I
11:54see some continuity across different sources that are all like at practices, watching things, talking to people in the building is like piecemealing that
12:02story together and when you start seeing it across you know, three different sources basically saying the exact same thing that's when I believe that there's
12:10there's real like smoke to this.
12:12Um I talked about the route share in the article as well. Uh James Cook was at like a 38% route share um in 2025 and
12:20Alvin Kamara was kind of at at like more of like a 50 to 60% with his time in uh with the Saints with Pete Carmichael.
12:28And so I think like what that gets you is the potential for like you know one or two more receptions per game and
12:35what those opportunities really do. I think we've Ryan Heath has wrote written articles about like what what a a pass-catching opportunity looks like
12:42versus a rushing opportunity and you're taking away something between the 20s and then you're adding something uh in the pass game and that's like you know,
12:49a plus one or two point fantasy point per game uh type of increase which if you add that on top of last year, then
12:56you're going to to the 20 point per game, 20 to 21 point per game um uh full PPR points.
13:03And that's usually a a top three running back season. Last year it would have been a top five season.
13:09But um yeah, I mean he's being drafted as what?
13:12Like running back six or seven right now?
13:16>> Yeah, I think he's an awesome pick at the end of the first first round this season, one-two turn pick. Um draft
13:22James Cook in that kind of second tier right after JT McCaffrey. Uh that's where I have him ranked. And you know,
13:29it's interesting to hear you say that they might decrease his rushing role, but increase his pass-down role. And I would argue that's a good thing for
13:37fantasy. Our guy, Scott Barrett, he found a number of years ago that a target is worth 2.7 times more PPR points than a single carry. So, Cook,
13:46you know, if we take away, okay, he goes from 300 carries like he had last season to maybe 275, but you increase one, two,
13:53three targets per game, you know, from where he's at. Three would be a little high, let's be honest. But one or two
13:58extra targets per game would be a massive boon to his fantasy value. And he already has, just like, awesome touchdown upside. The guy scored 32
14:05touchdowns in his last 33 games.
14:08Um I am big-time on James Cook last year uh this year and last year.
14:13Cook to me, man, like he had eight games with 60% or more of the snaps last season, eight out of 16
14:19games. The year prior, he had just one that game with 60% or more of the snaps.
14:24So, okay, yeah, you you mentioned mentioned Raheem Davis might come in and take a couple extra carries, but if he plays a little more in the pass game,
14:30that snap share is going to equal out, and we're going to get him right around that 55 to 60% snap rate, maybe 65% this
14:37season after he got the bag. Uh I am big-time on James Cook, and it's good to hear the drumbeat. Matt Harmon always
14:43talks about the drumbeat of players.
14:44When you hear a lot of the same news from different outlets, different reporters, uh there's usually a lot of truth in that. And Harmon has just been
14:51right on. And this sounds like a kind of similar sit- situation with James Cook. We've also heard a lot of the drumbeat
14:58pointing towards Josh Downs' role changing. This is a player who's played just 6% of the snaps in 12 personnel in his career, Zayne. Just 6%. He's base-
15:07He's just not played at all when two tight ends are on the field. Bro, that has to change this year. Uh especially
15:12with Alec Pierce dealing with a foot injury, ankle injury, he might not be totally 100% for September just this season. Uh but unless they sign Keenan
15:20Allen, unless they sign Stefon Diggs, it is wheels up on Josh Downs getting a full-time route share this season.
15:26>> Yeah, I think the interesting thing about Josh Downs. So, the reports here were from many different sources, many different outlets, but a lot of it was
15:34um you know, he's going to see more opportunities. Then I read that he was actually seen practicing on the outside, which is something new. That doesn't
15:42100% mean that he's going to be an outside receiver every single time. If they're in 11 personnel where they have three wide receivers on the field,
15:49he's undoubtedly going to be the slot receiver.
15:53Um but the fact that they're giving him the opportunity to show that he can be that Z receiver, I think that's huge. Um
16:00especially because that Z receiver usually lines up on the side of the tight end and doesn't have to play on the line of scrimmage. Um the way that
16:07they've talked about utilizing him in these two wide receiver sets so far is getting him in motion, getting him uh in
16:14situations where he wouldn't necessarily have to face press coverage, and that's the thing we worry about with guys like Josh Downs and his size.
16:20Um so, I'm I'm extremely bullish, and even if they do add a guy the guys that I've heard the most linked to them have
16:27been Keenan Allen and Deebo Samuel. Um but when they talk about adding guys like Keenan Allen and Deebo Samuel, they talk about them in a more third-down
16:37specialist type of role where they come in on clear pass situations. Um and maybe they end up with like a 50 to 60%
16:45route share throughout the season. So, I still think that even if they add someone like that, there's still opportunity for Josh Downs to play in
16:51this outside role. Um even if it's splitting a little bit more, that would be more than what we'd seen in the past
16:58uh where he's basically almost never playing on the outside, even when guys like Pittman and uh Alec Pierce have missed time in the past. I
17:06think there's a game maybe last year or 2 years ago, a guy like Anthony Gold was playing outside receiver over him. Um
17:12so, it's good to hear that they have plans to actually put him in. Um I think that it's a virtual lock unless
17:19they sign Stefon Diggs, uh, who I've not actually heard linked to them, that he will be at a 75% plus route share this
17:26season as long as he's healthy.
17:28>> Yeah, wheels up if that's the case.
17:30That's been the one thing that's held Downs back, you know, you mentioned his entire career. I mean, he's basically just not not been that role at all. Uh,
17:37two years ago Josh Downs was pretty solid for fantasy, caught 70 balls for 800 yards. Where he's going in ADP now,
17:44he's going wide receiver 43. That has come up significantly, Zane. He's about 20 spots more expensive than he was at open in May 1st when draft started
17:52getting going. That being said though, I still think, you know, if we get him to 70 catches, 800 yards at wide receiver
17:5743, he's more than going to pay off that ADP and then I think there's some upside here for more. You mentioned that he's
18:02going to be playing in the flanker role.
18:04This is something I mentioned to Chris Wecht just yesterday actually. He's going to play in this flanker role in Steichen's offense. Steichen has always
18:10been a a coach that uses a ton of motion to kind of not only disguise his play calling, but also get his receivers in
18:16the best position possible. It's going to be a very, very friendly role for fantasy for Josh Downs this season. And yeah, if if we do avoid the free agent
18:25signing, this will be the year for Josh Downs to really pay off his ADP. I still think Tyler Warren leads this team in
18:30targets, but maybe not by a significant margin this season.
18:34There is more than enough room for multiple receivers here on the Colts to be fantasy relevant. And, you know, let's not forget one final thought on
18:42Josh Downs. Like, I thought he was trending up last year as well as a player to kind of target, but he injured
18:47his injured his ankle in August, probably was not fully healthy in September, and maybe just got behind a little bit because of that. He's fully
18:56healthy this year, 25 years old going into a bigger role. I think he's going to have an awesome season, and I still
19:02think there's a lot of equity in that pick even though his ADP's come up from like 110, 115 to 90. Uh, wide receiver
19:0943, I I I think is a little too cheap for him. Zane, I will say taking him over Alec Pierce, that's a bridge too
19:15far for me, man. Give me the explosive plays, give me the touchdowns and the contested catches from Pierce as their true X receiver. He's going to have to
19:22earn more targets this season just by virtue of this roster. But Downs wide receiver 43 is still a great great pick.
19:29George Kittle is looking like he's a little ahead of schedule and I'm usually the one Zane I'm I'm usually one that's
19:35like an injury pessimist. Like I I usually do not want to be drafting players coming off major injury. But this year we've got a very sharp price
19:43on George Kittle. He is significantly cheaper than he's ever been in ADP and it's obviously, you know, he's coming off the torn Achilles.
19:52>> [snorts] >> There's a chance that he's just like not close to 100% in September. But I'd argue if you're taking George Kittle
19:58this season, you're doing it with not September in mind. You're doing it for October and November and December in mind. He's going 113 in ADP. His ADP has
20:05basically not changed, man. He was going 116, 117 in May. It's come up just a few spots.
20:12I have trouble taking him over Harold Fannin or Kyle Pitts and especially Sam Laporta. But man, like, you know, if he's close to 100% even in like, I don't
20:22know, first week of October, like week five or week six, he's probably going to pay off this ADP. He's always been
20:28number one or number two on the team in targets and I know they added Mike Evans this year and he adds a whole different
20:34orbit to this team. With that being said, man, I mean, Kittle has consistently been a top five fantasy tight end every time he laces it up. You
20:41can now grab him at tight end nine. And again, I'm usually one that's like pushing back on some of the injury
20:46optimism, but for here, man, like it's not priced in. Tucker Kraft is going three and a half rounds ahead of him and
20:51he's coming off a significant injury himself.
20:54>> Yeah, so people might not know this, but I have a little bit of a medical background, not like super deep in the
20:59weeds, but work with medical professionals a lot. So I've talked to a number of people that that have specifically performed this procedure
21:07that George Kittle went through and exactly what his injury is and then have also sourced information from people on Twitter who kind of like have read more
21:16about the situation in general.
21:18Um, the big thing here is that the Achilles used to be and I I'm a Cowboys fan so this is going back way back in
21:24the 90s but the Achilles injury used to be like a death sentence to a career, right? And now uh the ability to come back even within
21:33one season like in the exact same season is something that's possible with Achilles injuries. Now it all depends on how it impacts you from a situation of
21:43like your explosiveness and how you're able to cut and pivot off of that Achilles.
21:47Um, but the huge thing with George Kittle is that his Achilles injury is different than most. It was higher up on
21:54that Achilles um area closer to the calf which recovers much faster and has less of a long-term impact based off of my
22:03discussion with medical professionals.
22:05Um, the medicine behind this, the procedure has all changed within the past 10 years. Um, so so nowadays people are able to come back from this within
22:14roughly 6 months.
22:16Um, that doesn't mean that they'll be perfect by 6 months. That means that they're able to play within 6 months and
22:21then return to performance within a few months after that. George Kittle notably going to be beyond that timeline. Um, and and you talked about it with the
22:29metrics. Um, the interesting things that I I've kind of looked at when it comes to to George Kittle is he's basically been top three in XFP per
22:37route run, fantasy points per game, first downs per route run, passer rating when targeted amongst tight ends within the past two seasons. So I I just keep
22:46thinking about it and I'm like if I can take this guy past the range where I have to spend up on quarterback, um,
22:53receiver, running back, I can have it I can have it all when I take George Kittle and I don't get that same
22:58trade-off with some of the guys that that you were discussing like um if I wanted to go after a guy like Cole Kmet,
23:04Loveland, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, even Ty Warren, some of these guys are going a little bit above him, and I don't have to make that same like
23:12opportunity cost decision when I'm looking at a guy like George Kittle right now. Maybe by the time some people listen to this later in the off later
23:20in training camp that that changes, but for now it's wheels up and you can take him you know beyond all of those key
23:28positions.
23:30>> Yeah, I mean if we're taking Tucker Kraft at 80 overall, we should have more injury optimism than George Kittle for
23:36George Kittle. Obviously, you know, Kraft got injured a little earlier in the year, but you mentioned you know the positivity of just kind of the the
23:44nature of the injury for Kittle.
23:46You know, he did get hurt super late, got hurt in January, but that being said, you know, if he's you're not taking Kittle for September.
23:54You know, you're taking him for what he can provide in November and December, and you can plan around that at this
24:00ADP. This is something that Andrew Cooper and I just talked about yesterday.
24:04Go listen to that show after you listen to this one here.
24:07We talked about 10 dark horse league winners at tight end, and he has this like yin and yang strategy where it's
24:12like you have you know, kind of maybe a young guy who can you know, prove it later later in the year and like an old veteran who can
24:18produce early in the season. I think you just invert that with Kittle. You you draft him with the you know, in mind of
24:25like, hey, I'm probably not going to get much out of this guy in September and maybe even October, but when the money
24:29is made in fantasy football in November and December, you know, he'll be on the field and healthy.
24:34You compare him at this ADP with someone like Mark Andrews who's like super boring, but you can stop plug and play
24:40him. Dallas Goedert as well, tight end 15, somebody that you know you're going to get immediate early season production from while you wait on Kittle. And to
24:49your point like, you know, he's going in a range where like it's right after the you know, the quarterback pocket kind of
24:54starts that tier kind of starts falling off.
24:56If he doesn't get pushed into the 90s or 180P, uh, I will definitely be clicking George Kittle continuously like I have been
25:05this summer.
25:06>> What about even like, you know, if if if he misses like a game or two, then you're talking about streaming Jake
25:12Tongues, right? Like even even that situation like >> in managed leagues, that's a great plan.
25:16I mean, that's a that's a great plan in managed leagues for sure.
25:20Um, I like that call quite a bit. I mean, he was pretty productive in the games that Kittle missed last year. Um,
25:26low-end tight end one. Um, there's just there's a lot of different avenues you can do to kind of like stream that
25:31production early in the year. You're going to have access to the waiver wire.
25:34Uh, I like that bet quite a bit with Kittle. Like I said, I it's it's kind of weird to me cuz I'm usually the guy
25:40who's like, "Man, I'm out on all these guys who are hurt or coming off major injuries." But Kittle is kind of the one
25:45based on price. It really is a price thing. It's just it's nice, man. Tight end nine is real nice.
25:51Um, one of the prices that has come way up, uh, is super interesting to think about where we're at with Ken Walker
25:57after last season. Ken Walker was a mega bust last year. Uh, there was a lot of debate at where he was going at the 3-4
26:03turn like Ken Walker versus James Cook.
26:06I was on Cook and, you know, I I still liked Ken Walker last season.
26:11Uh, he ended up in a split role with Zach Charbonnet. Obviously, he's now on the the Chiefs and we just, you know,
26:17over his career it's we've always been wanting more from Ken Walker. I've always been a huge fan of his game, always been a huge fan of his explosive
26:23ability. It does seem like now they're going to try to unleash him. They're going to try to to you know, put him in
26:29this workhorse role. I'm not saying bellcow role, there's a difference. A workhorse is like a 60% snap share player, a bellcow is somebody like
26:37Christian McCaffrey who does not come off the field. Um, that being said though, man, he's like a mid-second round pick. I'll be fully honest with
26:44you. I have not like I I think just it's an ADP thing, right?
26:48Like just the players that he goes around like Devon Achane. I have a lot of confidence in his role, Amari White,
26:53a lot of confidence of what his role is going to be. Derrick Henry is just I mean, he's a Hall of Fame player.
26:58Is this the type of situation like 2 years ago with Saquon where it's a very similar ADP? We have a lot of
27:05There's a lot of similarities here between their their running style, kind of that boom-bust, very reliant on big play running style just like Saquon
27:13Barkley did. Are we just overthinking this? Is this Saquon Barkley with the Eagles in '24, uh 2.0?
27:19>> I think there's a chance. Um and it all comes down to how like Patrick Mahomes performs, too. Uh Patrick Mahomes
27:25notably coming off a knee injury, uh coming back into the season. And you know, it really comes back to the fact that he Mahomes is going to be back
27:35likely for week one. But is he going to be Patrick Mahomes when he plays? You need him to be the facilitator of the
27:41offense to raise the floor of this offense because without Mahomes, we saw what the offense looks like. He basically takes this from like the worst
27:48offense to the best offense, like a top-five in the league just by playing playing being on the field.
27:55Adding a running back, I think we we've all kind of understood this over time, but having a good running back without a
28:00good quarterback or without a a top quarterback doesn't really do much for a team. So, to me, a lot of this comes
28:07back to Mahomes specifically and whether he's able to perform. And everything that I'm reading is that Mahomes is going to be fine. Then you get back to
28:15what Kenneth Walker's role is actually going to look like and how they how much they paid him.
28:20Whether they want to feature him or not.
28:23And um you know, the reports out of ESPN are that they want to put him in this featured back role.
28:29Think about the guys that they have behind him. They drafted Emmit Johnson.
28:32They have uh Amari Demercado. Those are not guys that you're thinking, "Hey, this guy's going to get you know, seven, eight rushes in a game
28:40to take away from Kenneth Walker." Those are guys that may play in pass down situations. I I think about it more like
28:46a almost like a D'Onta Foreman situation.
28:51But he doesn't have a guy like Zach Charbonnet. Even even when you think about it like DeMarco Murray body size, Eddie Lacy
28:59body size. Like these aren't Zach Charbonnet sized players who could take away goal line opportunities. And now we're we're adding the goal line in what
29:06I assume will actually happen. The goal line opportunities coming back and then you add what he's been able to do in the
29:12past catching game in the past. Um even if he just stayed in the same pass catching role, but he added the goal
29:17line, that would be huge for fantasy.
29:20Um because last year he basically didn't get that opportunity when Zach Charbonnet was playing.
29:26So I'm optimistic um in what his role can be especially if Mahomes is healthy and they're able to make this all work.
29:33There's also the possibility of them adding a guy like Stefon Diggs who um >> [clears throat] >> you know, I saw on the NFL Insiders
29:40uh they talked about that a little bit yesterday.
29:43Um so if they add something like that, you're really elevating the the floor of the offense as well.
29:48Yeah, I I I'm I'm cautiously optimistic.
29:52It's We talked about James Cook earlier.
29:54I wouldn't take him over James Cook by any means. Uh even Ashton Jeanty like I would rather have Ashton Jeanty than
29:59him.
30:00Uh but right after that tier, um you you could talk me into a situation where you're making the conversation between him and Saquon Barkley.
30:09Um you're making the conversation with him and and um guys like Cam Akers and James Cook.
30:15Um Chase Brown, Derrick Henry. Like that's kind of the the area that he's going in.
30:19And I I have no problem with taking him in that same same role right now.
30:24>> The price is fair on Walker, but it to me like I said when I made my argument, it's like it's just the players around
30:30him. We have a lot more certainty about what their role is going to be this season, Zane, but man, I mean, there's a lot of touchdown
30:37upside here. Over the last two seasons, this backfield is 12th in expected touchdowns just behind you know some just absolute hammer teams like the Ravens the 49ers
30:49the Eagles there's a lot of touchdown upside to be had here and we really haven't had like a fantasy relevant running back in this offense you know
30:57Kareem Hunt's had periods where he's been like a decent RB2 Isaiah Pacheco was a decent RB2 back in 2023 but he was
31:05splitting time you know as it in terms of his pass down role then he got hurt there's just there's a lot of touchdown
31:13equity in this offense even if Mahomes is I don't know 80% of his former self this season coming off the ACL
31:20I think there's there's a lot to like here for you know even if he's not a true full-blown bell cow it's just
31:26there's there's a lot of touchdown equity here >> the one the one thing that I think about with this is that we we have some recent
31:31bias when it comes to what the Chiefs backfield has kind of been but if you think back to Andy Reid's history it used to be like an automatic
31:39>> it was a it was a money printer like for real in in fantasy football >> Brian Westbrook Jamal Charles even
31:45Damien Williams I'm trying to think about who else it was but >> dude Damien Williams was like RB7 that year he was incredible
31:51>> exactly so there's there's to me there's like that hey they've they haven't had a guy this talented in a while and now
31:58you're adding that back to what Andy the Andy Reid roots and he's getting Eric Bieniemy back and then you're getting rid of Matt Nagy like I I think that
32:06there is this like hidden situation where you see a guy is it weird to say hey you're in the Damien Williams role sure whatever but
32:16that was a really productive fantasy role and then you say the talent upside of what Kenneth Walker is compared to a guy like Damien Williams
32:23who was just a guy I think there's there's definitely possibilities there's definitely situations where I see him being RB4 like let's say everyone stayed
32:32healthy I think it's unquestioned Gibbs Bijan and CMC would all be in the top three.
32:39Is it a possibility that he would be the fourth guy if he stayed healthy all season and they put him in this more
32:44like Jamal Charlesy situation? Sure. Yeah, I think that's possible.
32:49>> Yeah, the the touchdown upside is what keeps the light on for me is like this guy really could push for 15 15
32:55touchdowns this year. You mentioned he should get the majority of the goal line carries. I don't see anybody on this roster that's going to be taking goal
33:01line carries away from Ken Walker.
33:03All right, we're going to round it out here with some Bears backfield talk. I'm just going to feel like De'Andre Swift
33:07is being underrated again. This is a player who's finished top 24 in PPR points per game in every year of his
33:12career. He's always been just like a rock solid RB2 and he that's the range he's going in right now. I think the
33:17floor is, you know, for his ADP right now it is like RB24, RB25, RB26.
33:22Uh Kalen Ballage is certainly going to mix in for a change of pace roles in, but you're reading that Swift is clearly
33:28the lead back.
33:29>> Yeah, um I think this is one thing that people don't think about as much when it comes to fantasy. You think about um the
33:36guy the RB2 being drafted as like a handcuff, but what happens if the RB2 gets injured, right? So, if Kalen Ballage were to go down, you're then
33:44seeing De'Andre Swift go to like a third round type of value type of player, right? Or even maybe a second round type
33:50value type of player. Um so, he already has the the clear lead back role, which means when the team takes the field, he
33:58will be on the field first. And then, when it comes to pass catching duties, he will be that player instead of Kalen
34:04Ballage. So, that's where we're we're talking about a very similar split to what we saw down the down the um down the end of the season last year.
34:12Um and then, we talk about the upside of if a Ballage gets hurt, they don't have options. They don't really The coaching
34:21staff doesn't really like Roshan Johnson. Um they have British Brown as like a backup backup there, too. So, this is and we've we saw it with uh when
34:30De'Andre Swift missed time last year, they gave Kamara and N'gata like everything.
34:34Uh and Kamara and N'gata had a a beast spike week last year um when when that happened.
34:40So, it's the upside of if Kamara and N'gata were to miss time, but then even that with Swift going at close to like
34:47RB21, like he was he was above that last year in games where they started splitting already. So, I feel like it's baked in
34:55when you're talking about cost. You're you're if you just draft him for the situation that he's in right now without any upside, without the Bears offense
35:03taking another leap like Caleb Williams playing a lot better, um then you're basically buying him at >> [snorts] >> almost his his floor right now.
35:13And then you talk about the offense getting better, N'gata potentially what if he got hurt, different things like that, that can elevate him to without
35:22N'gata getting hurt, he could still be around four value. If N'gata got hurt, this is like an RB this is definitely an
35:28RB1 situation.
35:31>> I'm with you. There's huge contention upside here. Two things for me is this Bears backfield was sixth in XFP last
35:36season. So, even if it is a split situation like you're mentioning, I mean, there could be like plenty of spiked weeks here for this backfield.
35:44There's just a big pie to split. Only the Rams, Bills, Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks had more backfield expected fantasy points according to Fantasy
35:51Points Data last year. So, I mean, there's just a big nice pie to split, but with Swift where he's going in
35:57drafts, there's this kind of a spread on his ADP and underdog specifically, he is going earlier around like, you know, early 50s. But manage redraft leagues,
36:05he's going a little later, closer to 60 overall in some of these spots like Sleeper and ESPN and Yahoo. I think he's
36:12an awesome pick for hero running back builds. Do a true hero running back with Gibbs or Bijan, McCaffrey, one of these
36:18round one running backs. And then let's say that the board, you know, your draft room kind of forces you to go into,
36:24okay, maybe there's just some really good running receiver value in the third and fourth rounds. Maybe it's your going to a room where running backs go a
36:31little earlier. You can come back and feel pretty good about Swift as like a low-end RB2 that's going to give you,
36:37you know, 10, 11, 12, 13 usable points every single week. And then yeah, there's huge contention upside. Like what if he just straight up outplays
36:45Kalen Guy this year? What if Kalen Guy takes a step back? If he gets hurt, all of that. Like there's significant,
36:51significant upside here because of the pie is so big and bro, in Ben Johnson we trust. I think that's like the main
36:57thing for me. Like as long as you have a pulse and you're decent at reading blockers, I think you're going to do
37:03pretty well in his scheme just in the way that he schemes up his his run game.
37:07Swift, in my opinion, had one of his best seasons on film last year. Maybe his best season ever on film. So there
37:13is a lot to like and a lot to build off of this season. And to me, super bullish that they didn't do
37:20anything in this backfield. They did nothing. They're just bringing it back, running back the same two guys. So Swift, I I think he's underrated, man.
37:27And I think he's a he's a very he's makes sense in in a lot of builds, but in particular that kind of hero running
37:33back build that I was mentioning.
37:35You get, you know, RB1 round one, get some solid receiver production rounds two through four, and then come back get Swift in the fifth or sixth round. Zane,
37:44this has been awesome, man. You're going to be on top of all the training camp news, I'm sure. So don't miss out on
37:50that. Follow him on Twitter at the honey Zane.
37:54Zane, good stuff, man.
37:56>> Thanks. Yeah, I know. It's great to get on with you. We've talked a lot in the background, too. So it's it's nice to
38:01like have this actually like taped for people to hear kind of our thought processes together.
38:05>> Yeah, we we've Zane has helped us out quite a bit with our best ball rankings and some of the process. And he, myself,
38:11and Chris have nerded out many hours this summer talking through football and fantasy and just kind of how we're seeing drafts this season. So it was
38:19great. Make sure you like this video.
38:22Leave a comment down below if you disagree or agree with any of our analysis. We'd love to hear from you guys. Make sure you listen to all of
38:29Zane's takeaways from training camp. I'm sure he's going to be pulling out a ton of great nuggets. And until the next
38:34video, we will see you at the top of the leaderboards.
38:43>> [music]

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