Scott Barrett Goes HEAD TO HEAD with National Champion Debater - 2026 Fantasy Football HEATED TOPICS
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 4 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 3, 2026
Published
Mon, August 3, 2026
18
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Colston LovelandAmon-Ra St. BrownBaker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Chase BrownChuba HubbardCole KmetDe'Von AchaneJalen McMillanJonathon BrooksKenneth Walker IIILuther BurdenMalik WillisMecole Hardman
Player analysis
Player insights
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveProjection36:02
National Champion Debater projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to finish as a wide receiver one in 2026. Special talent with historic hot start of 102.4 fantasy points in first five weeks—only third time since fall of Berlin Wall a WR produced that kind of start, joining Randy Moss and Puka Nacua. Elite early-season metrics included 2.71 yards per route run, NFL-leading 145.3 pass rating when targeted, and top-10 catchable target rate. Second-half decline was largely due to injuries and playing out of position; shift to new Z-role in Zach Robinson offense should provide significant boost in 2026. Baker Mayfield's arm injury (deep throw rate collapsed from 1st to 32nd, catchable throw rate fell from 7th to QB28) directly impacted St. Brown's production in weeks 6-14.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveInjury36:57
Baker Mayfield suffered a significant arm injury that caused dramatic collapse in throwing metrics. Deep throw rate plummeted from 1st to 32nd in the NFL; catchable throw rate fell from 7th to QB28. This sharp decline in ball placement and aggression directly impacted his receivers' production, particularly Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mecole Hardman, despite continued high target volume. Injury expert Jeff Muller warned to watch for quarterback to come out, suggesting severity of the arm injury.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveSleeper22:19
Ultimate post-hype injury discount sleeper with one of the best rookie WR seasons ever: 4th most fantasy points among WRs in 2024 and one of five best rookie WR finishes in 50 years; produced 23.6 PPG over a 5-game stretch to close 2024; posted 2.45 yards per route run and top-25 first downs per route run (sticky predictive stats); larger sample size and higher peak production than Parker Washington's recent 4-game 22.3 PPG run, making him the better ceiling play and a more reliable bet than recency bias-driven Washington hype.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeValue4:34
Drafted ahead of Devonte Han despite never producing 20 fantasy points per game like Han has; used as comparison point for Han's ADP positioning in round two.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveBust32:17
Scott Barrett argues Chuba Hubbard is not a quality running back despite National Champion Debater's value case. Ranked dead last in explosive run rate in 2024 with zero explosive runs despite 100+ carries—only RB to achieve this distinction; also had worst yards per target of any player ever recorded. These metrics directly conflict with Panthers HC Dave Canales' stated offensive philosophy requiring a do-it-all running back who can catch passes and run effectively, as evidenced by Rashad White's RB1 season under Canales with top-three snap share. Hubbard averaged only 34.1 rushing yards per game in 2024, while backup Rico Dattle averaged 195 rushing yards per game in the two games Hubbard missed, suggesting limited upside in a committee backfield. Pre-calf injury (week 4), Hubbard produced 14 fantasy points per game and 54.3 rushing yards per game; post-injury (week 7 onward) declined to 6.4 fantasy points per game and 26.7 yards per game, indicating lingering effects.
Insight pageCole Kmet
NegativeProjection18:48
Kmet had four good games but was ineffective the rest of the season, finishing as tight end 30 by fantasy points per game (excluding the Bengals game he missed). Despite four strong games in weeks 16–wild card (when Bears trailed 81% of plays), he achieved 60% route share only four times in 15 healthy games, a threshold insufficient for consistent tight end production. The four-game sample was driven by extreme negative game script (81% trailing in all games), not sustainable role expansion. Fantasy Points projects him for 4.6 touchdowns (up from 2 in 2025), but regression from his playoff performance is expected as game scripts normalize.
Insight pageColston Loveland
PositiveProjection15:00
Despite a real shot at tight end one based on weeks 9–18 production (more fantasy points than any TE not named Trey McBride) and elite Caleb Williams connection (137.6 passer rating, third-best QB-pass-catcher link in NFL), Loveland's case is built on unsustainable game script. He hit 60% route share only four times in 15 games when Cole Kmet was healthy—insufficient for consistent TE production (Dalton Kincaid comparison). His four-game playoff stretch (weeks 16–wild card) drove his elite case, but the Bears trailed on 81% of offensive plays every single game during that window. He holds a 10-to-1 red zone target advantage over Luther Burden (31.6% team TD share vs. 7.7%), but National Champion Debater explicitly fades him at round 3–4 ADP, preferring later-round TE value (Tucker Kraft, George Kittle, Isaiah Likely) instead, though notes he is a 'mass buyer' in dynasty.
Insight pagePositiveProjection23:30
Loveland's 2025 production was inflated by four games doing heavy lifting, but regression analysis shows he still outperforms Burton in non-trailing game scripts: 254 yards to 187, higher yards per target, more red zone targets, and better expected fantasy points per target. Fantasy Points projects him for 5.5 touchdowns (down from 6 in 2025) but still ~10 more points than Burton over the season due to heavier target share and red zone looks. Speaker is betting on Loveland to see the end zone often in 2026 and make a strong case for tight end one.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
PositiveProjection3:24
Brian Rubi argues Devon Achane will be a top-five running back in 2026 despite playing in the Miami offense. Achane has been RB5, RB6, and RB5 by average in the last three seasons, establishing a track record of elite production that Rubi frames as the burden of proof against regression narratives. Achane is a bargain in the second half of round two, going behind Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown despite having never produced fewer than 20 fantasy points per game, making him undervalued relative to his historical output. His rushing efficiency is historically elite at 5.62 yards per carry, a mark only surpassed by Bo Jackson in NFL history. Additionally, he leads all running backs with 145 receptions over the last two years at a rate of 4.4 receptions per game, placing him in Terry McLaurin territory for receiving volume.
Insight pageJalen McMillan
PositiveSleeper40:00
Jaylen McMillan is a promising rookie receiver who earned 50/50 route share with Mecole Hardman in weeks 15-18 despite being active in only four games; posted a 100-yard game in that span. National Champion Debater views McMillan as a talented prospect priced much later in drafts than warranted and argues he represents better value than Hardman at WR15-16 ADP, suggesting he's a superior bet in 2026 drafts given his talent level and draft capital advantage.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveBreakout28:12
Round 2 draft pick for Panthers; HC Dave Canales explicitly stated after drafting Brooks: 'It's really important to my offense that we have a do-it-all running back who doesn't tip our play calling hand who can catch passes as well as run the ball.' Brooks offers significantly more upside than Chuba Hubbard despite likely committee work early; upside wins championships and Brooks has better odds of winning a league than Hubbard. ADP is round 11–12 on Sleeper, round 11 on ESPN/Yahoo, representing value for a player with playoff-stretch upside. National Champion Debater drafted Brooks heavily in summer as a top value but abandoned the position once Brooks' ADP caught up to and surpassed Chuba Hubbard's in some formats, deeming the price no longer justified; debater characterizes Brooks' case as projection-heavy rather than proven production, with only one season of 30+ carries post-high school, and projects Brooks at 7.95 fantasy points per game versus Chuba's 12.83, making Brooks unlikely to hit his projection relative to Chuba's track record.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeValue4:34
Drafted ahead of Devonte Han despite never producing 20 fantasy points per game like Han has; used as comparison point for Han's ADP positioning in round two.
Insight pageLuther Burden
PositiveBreakout21:00
Burden is positioned to play the DJ Moore slot role vacated by Moore's departure; Ben Johnson's offense historically runs through the slot (Jarvis Landry led league in receptions, Amon-Ra St. Brown led in receiving first downs multiple years). Burden posted insane rookie efficiency: best yards per route run since Odell Beckham Jr., a highly predictive stat; top-12 list includes AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Ben Johnson quote: 'we want to get Luther running more routes.' Rome Odunze's serious foot injury further clears the path. National Champion Debater argues 'it's going to be the Luther Burden show in 2026.' However, opponent counters that more routes will reduce per-route efficiency and bring it 'back down to earth just slightly'; Burden had only one game over 20 fantasy points (49ers shootout) and two targets with zero touchdowns on 28 red zone routes in two playoff games (six catches, 66 yards, no TDs), suggesting touchdown production will normalize closer to Loveland's six TDs.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveRole8:12
Incoming Miami Dolphins quarterback expected to reduce Devonte Han's target volume; hyper-mobile quarterbacks tend not to target running backs, and Willis specifically targeted running backs at the league's lowest rate, projecting to cut Han's targets from 85 to 48.
Insight pageMecole Hardman
PositiveProjection37:03
Mecole Hardman posted elite early-season efficiency with 2.71 yards per route run, NFL-leading 145.3 pass rating when targeted, and top-10 catchable target rate before hamstring injury in week 6 caused strength/burst loss and coverage struggles. Expected fantasy points remained stable (14.2 to 13.9 PPG). With new play-caller Zack Robinson running two-wide receiver sets at the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL (versus previous offense's league-high three-wide receiver rate), Hardman projects to be deadly in those sets where he averaged 0.33 targets per route run. At current ADP of WR15-16, if he maintains 80% of his early-season pace at full health, he profiles as a surefire WR1 in 2026.
Insight pageParker Washington
NegativeProjection13:31
Scott Barrett's strong ceiling play candidate who produced 22.3 PPG over a 4-game stretch in 2025, with Barrett emphasizing in his Exodia article that not drafting Washington means "can't be friends." However, the National Champion Debater counters that Brian Thomas Jr. is the better ceiling play due to a larger sample size and higher peak production, suggesting recency bias may be inflating Washington's appeal.
Insight pageRome Odunze
NegativeRole22:41
Odunze is the most talented player on the Bears roster. Matt Harmon's quote (cited by the judge) argues that Odunze's 'new normal' health status is comparable to other elite players who adjusted successfully (Malik Nabers, Keenan Allen, Julio Jones). The judge sides with Odunze as the first choice over Loveland and Burden, noting that earlier in summer when ADPs were lower, Odunze made more sense, and now Loveland's ADP has risen above both. Rome Odunze's serious foot injury is a concern that clears the path for Luther Burden to lead the Bears offense in 2026, but Odunze's talent and historical comparables suggest he can work through his new normal.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
PositiveRole7:48
Outgoing Miami Dolphins quarterback who targeted running backs at the league's highest rate; his departure removes a primary source of Devonte Han's target volume, with projections showing targets declining from 85 to 48 under replacement Malik Willis.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00fantasy football debates. People say I'm the best fantasy football debater in the space. I'm really tough to argue against. They call me the master
0:09debater. And so I really wanted to put myself to the test. I brought in the newest member of the fantasy points
0:18team, Brian Rubi, who I said it when we first hired Ryan Heath. This guy's a superstar. I'm saying it today. Brian
0:26Rubi is a superstar in the space and he has a really unique background. He was a national champion debate coach. [music]
0:46>> And so I'm going to be arguing against him today. I let Brian pick out the players and topics he wanted to argue
0:53against me with. We brought in the honorable motion man, Judge Trey Campberling, here to decide on the winners and losers.
1:04And uh and Brian, yeah, thank you for making your first ever appearance on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel on School of Scott. How are you doing today,
1:11Brian?
1:12>> Doing great, Scott. It's an honor to be here. Uh really enjoyed. I'm one of many people who love the draft guide. Love
1:19getting to see this year's Exodia picks.
1:21really excited to talk about some of those guys here with you this morning with you and Trey. Thank you guys so
1:25much for having me. Let's get to it.
1:27>> Yeah. Yeah. And if you enjoy today's episode, make sure you check out Brian's debut article for it's up on the site.
1:33It's fantastic. One of the best debut pieces in the fantasy football space of all time. Uh my draft guide also dropped, so make sure you check that out
1:42for all my Exodia plays. But really quick, Brian, why don't you just kind of introduce yourself, talk about your debate background, and maybe share a few
1:50lessons learned or or debate tips that you used to give your students uh because I might need that help as as we
1:57enter in this debate here today.
1:59>> Yeah, Scott, you're you're very humbled to say that. I've seen you in these debates online. I think you're a little
2:04like Floyd Mayweather. I don't know that you've been defeated. You got a belt in a lot of classes, but excited to put on
2:10a good fight today. Uh I was a debater and debate coach for a very long time.
2:14Was really lucky to win a national title at the University of Iowa. And the biggest things I always told my students
2:20are just really think deeply about both sides of a case. You know, if you end up kind of siding one way, it makes sense
2:26if it's different than somebody else, but make sure you've really thought through all the possibilities. And so that's why I'm so excited to jump in
2:33today. Whenever I've worked with you and Ryan, I've told you guys this. It's been like getting a second master's degree.
2:40uh because the level of depth you guys go into in the edits and thinking through every word that goes up on
2:45Fantasy Points is incredible. So, as those things were going on, I always thought it would be a dream to get the
2:51debates got and to do these things live.
2:53I'm really excited to get to do that here today. I think the debates that we're tackling are probably some of the
2:58hardest decisions for managers to make right now and really excited to give them some good information and hopefully help them make some great decisions and
3:05win their leagues.
3:06>> Me, me, too. You know, I'm not a national champion debater like yourself, but I did win a few awards in varsity
3:13debate in high school. So, I'm really happy and eager to brush off those skills today uh in a, you know, perfectly in my wheelhouse here with
3:21fantasy football. Let's start us off.
3:24Brian, what is your first topic of debate and which side are you taking?
3:28I'll have to reflexively take the opposite stance whether or not I agree with it.
3:34>> Great question. So, we're going to talk about Devon Achan to start the day. One of the big questions is, is Devon Achan
3:42going to be a top five running back in 2026? So, you all may know Devon Achan if you've been reading Scott for a good
3:49while as the Tyreek Hill of running backs. If you read my debut article, I called him Birdman because Devon Han can
3:56fly in any weather. And I'm betting on Han to be a top five running back even in this 2026 Miami offense because he's
4:03one of one and he's built different. So first big thing like a certain Miami DJ but unfortunately like unlike the 2026
4:11Miami Dolphins all Han does is win. He is a proven top five producer. It's all he's ever done. He's been RB5, RB6, and
4:19RB5 by average in the last three seasons. In debate, we have this concept called the burden of proof, which suggests, you know, which side really
4:26needs, you know, to prove their case.
4:28And I think that the burden of proof is on the idea that Han won't be top five, given that that's all he's ever done.
4:34He's a bargain in the second half of round two. He's going behind guys like Kenneth Walker and Chase Brown, who are
4:40great running backs, but have never produced 20 fantasy points per game like Han has. And if you're wondering, can he repeat that? Well, the second big thing
4:48to consider is Han is in his own stratosphere. Scott, I know you love those historical comparisons. It not since they have invented a vaccine for
4:56polio in the 1950s has anybody had as many yards per carry as Devon Han and is 5.62.
5:05>> I I mean, and it hurts for me to say because I'm broadcasting live from Kansas City. Number two is Bo Jackson,
5:09who we have a special affinity for.
5:11Anytime you talk about somebody in Bo Jackson's category, it's insane. And that's where Devon Achan is. And he's not just a devastating rusher. We all
5:19know he's a devastating receiver. 145 receptions in the last two years, leading all backs, 4.4 receptions a game, which is Terry McLaren territory.
5:28And I get it. If you're thinking in the back of your mind, well, things are going to look a lot different in 2026.
5:33They are. But that's the final point.
5:35Let's just assume this is the worst offense Han's ever played on. It probably will be. The fantasy points projections run by Chris Wet and the
5:43crew, the industry's sharpest. They assume that he's going to have a career low in receiving touchdowns, his second worst rushing touchdowns mark, declines
5:52in rushing yards and receiving yards versus last season. But despite all of that, they still have him pretty comfortably at RB5 because very few
6:00running backs can touch the 70 plus receptions that Han projects for. So, it's a bad offense. It's a run first quarterback, but you may have seen CMC
6:09overcome that in the past with the Panthers. Saquon with the 5'11 Giants.
6:13You may have seen Alvin Chimera make through a season with Taesm Hill and produce some very good things. I'm still betting on Han, even in tougher weather
6:21than ever, to do really good things and to be a top five running back in 2026.
6:27All right. Now, it's my turn to argue against that whether or not in actuality I agree with it. Um, and so let me just
6:35tell you where when you when you have a fantasy football running back, where do fantasy points come from? They really only come from three one of three things
6:45and ideally more than one of three things. It's it's uh red zone carries and so touchdowns,
6:53it's explosive runs and it's target volume, right? And so if you look at for instance Jonathan Taylor, if you if you
7:03strip out non-exlosive runs, non- redstone carries, um you know, non-targets, you know, this was 66% of his total
7:12touches, but it was only 27% of his total fantasy points. Everything else is basically irrelevant. Those carries in between the 20s that don't go for
7:21explosives. And so when you have Devon Achan, you even if you're arguing in favor of him, I I think you have to
7:28admit there's not a lot of touchdown upside. He had just two goal line rushing touchdowns last year that ranked 42nd among all running backs. And this
7:38isn't an offense that we expect to score many fantasy points. So really, his his fantasy production can only come one of
7:44two ways. One, through the air, and I I'd like to pull this up in the screen if we can. He's losing the checkown god
7:52Tua Tako Valoa who targeted running backs at the league's highest rate and he's replacing Tua with Malik Willis. We know hyper mobile quarterbacks tend not
8:04to target running backs. Malik Willis targeted running backs at the league's lowest rate. If that holds, he's
8:12basically going from 85 targets to 48.
8:16That is a massive kneecap to where the bulk of his fantasy points have come from. And then the third leg is the
8:25explosive runs, the hyperefficiency, what you brought up with regard to the yards per carry figure. You're losing Mike McDaniels, who is maybe is probably
8:35the best run game coordinator in the NFL. uh his offenses led the league in EPA per run over a fiveyear span before
8:44with the 49ers before he joined uh the Miami Dolphins and then you know since he had his first job as a run game
8:52coordinator to present leads the league in EPA per run and he's done that with outside of Han a lot of UDFA tier
9:01running backs round seven running backs where he most you talk about Bo Jackson like Devonte Han's yards per carry best since Bo Jackson. Guess what? Raheem
9:09Moster is right there behind him. And so maybe that's maybe Aan is not the Tyreek Hill of running backs that we think he
9:15is. Maybe it's just Mike McDaniel, you know, doing a lot of heavy lifting. And then even if that's not the case, this
9:22is going to be a bottom five offense with bottom five game script and teams are going to be stacking the box against
9:28you because yeah, Devonte Han's pretty good. You know who's not good? The quarterback. He's not a good thrower of the football. They have no receivers to
9:37throw the ball to and so they're just going to sell out to stop Devon Aan.
9:41He's going to be running against stack boxes and the efficiency is gone. So what are you left with? You a guy whose
9:47target volume is theoretically cut in half. Uh the explosives are gone, much tougher sledding and he was never scoring goal line touchdowns anyway.
9:56Devon Aan is an awful pick as a top five ADP running back.
10:03>> Love it. So, Scott, do I have I've got one rebuttal here. Is that right?
10:06>> Sure, you can take it.
10:07>> Awesome. I love it. Uh, so really good points by Scott. I agree. I don't think red zone touchdowns are what you can
10:13count on each hand for, but it wasn't what you were counting for last year either. Uh, and Scott, I know this is a
10:18stat that you shared with me. Fewer red zone touchdowns last year than Ban Mcnite running behind a bottom five offensive line playing in a bottom 12
10:26offense in that weather. Still the RB5.
10:29And I think Tua definitely caused for concern. That split from 1 to 32 is a big split. Uh but one of the things I
10:37want to remind readers of, anybody who's listened to for a long time, that Konami code article, a classic from 2021, those
10:44rushing quarterbacks also tend to increase rushing efficiency. They stretch the defense. They lead to better boxes and rushing lanes. And Hannon
10:52Willis is a pretty devastating RPO threat in line with something like a Chimera and Tasm Hill. ugly as the passing might look, it it's going to be
11:00a bad offense. But to credit our colleague Kyle Mittton, he pointed out last year in those losing game scripts, Han was RB2 at 18.9 fantasy points per
11:10game. That's actually over the last two seasons. And that was with Tua struggling to hit 200 passing yards a game. I do think it's going to look a
11:18little different. He's going to see a lot more stacked boxes, but he's been second in yards per carry against stacked boxes. In the past, he's had the
11:26most carries of 10 plus yards against stacked boxes. He's obviously up against it. Things are going to be harder than ever for Devon Aan, but very few running
11:35backs have that kind of upside and especially that proven upside.
11:39I'll believe Han is not a top five RB when I see it. But after three years with the most predictive thing, prior
11:46fantasy output, we still haven't seen him be anything else. It's got a really strong case. I'm still clicking Han, but it's a good debate.
11:55Honorable Judge Camberling, who do you side with?
11:59>> Excuse me. Yeah, this one is tough because it's right down the middle, right? You're you're really arguing here whether he's going to be the RB5 or the
12:07RB6 the way that I'm looking at it unless James Cook sneaks up there and uh makes some stuff happen. You know, I'm
12:13looking at the top two guys. There's no non-injury path for HN to get past the Gibbs and the Bejons of the world. But
12:20it it to me now it's looking like Christian McCaffrey. We all we all know he took a step back, right? He took a
12:25little step back. Han the better player, the more explosive player. Volume is king at the end of the day. This one is
12:32so so tight and so close. But I am going to give it to Brian. I think Devon Han slides in there exactly at RB5 this
12:41season. And let me play the let me play the sound for you.
12:46>> I love it.
12:47>> All right. Well, let me give my ruling because I think the listeners want to know where I actually stand on this. If
12:52you pulled Ryan Heath, Ryan Heath would have said, "I won this debate handily."
12:57If you asked Brett Whitefield, he would have said, "You won this debate." Brett thinks this might be the best fantasy season of Han's career. Like reminiscent
13:05of 2019, Christian McCaffrey on the Panthers with a hyper mobile quarterback. And I ultimately side with Chris Wet who you know when presented
13:16with all these debate points is like yeah you could say Malik Willis doesn't target running backs. It's a really small sample by the way but like my job
13:26is to project out volume and like there's nowhere else for the ball to go.
13:31You look at the pass catchers on this team. It's Jaylen Tolbert 22 Atwell and Malik Washington as the starters. These guys suck. like Devon Asian might be a
13:40better wide receiver than at least two of those three guys. So, uh just projecting out the target volume, it has to still be there. And then like you
13:48said, I think this is a really talented running back. I think this is a rare talent who I expect the hyperefficiency
13:55on the ground to still be there even if this Miami Dolphins offense sucks, which by the way it sucked last year. So, you
14:03know, dead last in in in play volume.
14:05So, uh yeah, ultimately I side with you.
14:08I think you're right. Um, but you know, it is one of those things where um, you know, there there are good arguments on
14:13both sides.
14:16Do you have our next uh, debate topic for us, Brian?
14:19>> Yeah. So, Scott, am I right? Up next.
14:22Are we talking about Loveland and about Burden? Is that next up on the mic?
14:26>> Yeah. And so, this is one I actually believe in. I'm team Burden. You're team Lovelin. So, this is going to be a fun
14:33debate. Uh, why don't you lead us off with why you're team Loveland? I will argue against Lovelind. I will make the
14:39pro burden case. You will argue against Burden and then we'll toss it up to Trey to pick a winner.
14:46>> Love it. Sounds great. So, a lot of this summer I kept thinking, well, if I miss Loveland, I'll pick up Burden in the
14:52next round. But ADP has caught up.
14:55Loveland and Burden are now going in roughly the same spot. And with a choice between a guy who could be the tight end
15:01one and has a pretty strong path versus a guy who I think is scratching the top 20 wide receivers, I'm leaning narrowly
15:07to Leland. I think he's got a real shot at tight end one. I think he largely outperformed Burton and he's just a
15:13safer bet to lead that Bears group of pass catchers. Even though I do also like the outlook for Burton to start
15:20with that last half of last season. I know a lot of people have zoned in on that kind of supernova last four games
15:28that Lovelin produced, but look at an even larger sample. Week nine to 18, last half of the season. Lovelin produced more fantasy points than any
15:36tight ends not named Trey McBride. He's the only guy that's in that tier one of tight ends that you can get at that kind
15:43of cost towards the middle of round three or later. And I like his outcome the best. I worry about McBride with
15:51Beck. I worry about what the offense looks like with Bowowers and Mendoza. I think that Lovelin is the only one of
15:57that group whose situation really improves. Scott, I know that you've written persuasively in the past that a tight end really has to be great to be
16:05one of the people that you invest in in those first four rounds. I think Loveland is that guy and I think he's
16:10got a real shot at tight end one. I think if you look at that sample from weeks 9 to 18, the obvious thing that
16:17stands out is okay, he outscores Burden and fantasy points by about three points. But the less obvious thing is what kind of connection Lovelin showed
16:24with Caleb Williams during that time. I mean 137.6 passer rating from Caleb to Loveland is the third best connection between any quarterback and pass catcher
16:35in the NFL. Tight end, wide receiver, anybody. That's the third best connection between any two guys. Where I really think that Lovelin gets ahead is
16:43in the red zone. He had a 10 to one advantage in red zone targets versus Burton. A 31.6% team touchdown share versus 7.7%
16:55for Burton. I'll save some of my notes about Burton towards the end because I do think that there are some causes for
17:01concern with his case that I don't think exist with Loveland. But when you're thinking about Lovelin versus the opportunity cost of other guys, Scott, I
17:09know you've pointed out that Fannon produced roughly similar things in a similar period. Fannon is a yak god, but Loveland had a higher target share and a
17:17more stacked offense. I think there are different direction areas. I think Loveland is inside of an offense with lots of vacated targets, lots of room
17:25for his first read share to go up. And I think that a lot of those things are going to start to tilt even more
17:30strongly towards Loveland. I there are a lot of good options there in the third round. One of which is Burton. I don't
17:37think that Burden is a bad pick at cost, but given a choice between the two, I'm going to take a shot at the guy I think
17:43has a real shot to be tight end one, which is Coloulston Love.
17:47>> Yeah. So, I think the odds are really stacked against Lovelin. I think this is a really hard argument for you to make.
17:54Um, if you just understand opportunity cost, it's just really, really hard for a round three to round four tight end to
18:03pay off that ADP. You really have to be prime Travis Kelce. And if you're not that, you're you're a bad pick because
18:10you that's the range you want to be drafting running backs or wide receivers. Um, it's also really rare for a tight end to to lead the team in
18:19fantasy points. You know, Trey McBride did it, Brock Bowowers did it. There's there's very few examples, especially when you have talented wide receivers,
18:27which is the case in Chicago. So, they're going in the same round range.
18:31And I I I do not see Coloulston Lovelin outscoring Luther Burden. I think the odds of that happening are really low
18:38just because of the position he plays.
18:41And then I think, you know, this this fourame window is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. And first I'd like to say
18:48that I it's Cole KT is still there and we need to put some respect on Cole KT's name. It heel had four good games but he sucked
18:59ass the rest of the time. You know there was that Bengals game that that Cole KT missed but outside of that he did
19:05absolutely nothing. He was basically the tight end 30 by fantasy points per game.
19:09Sledigit fantasy points per game.
19:11Lovelin hit a 60% route share only four times in the 15 games that Cole KT was fully healthy. You are not going to be a
19:21productive fantasy tight end with a 60% route share. That's the Daltton Concaid issue, right? And so those four games, he did hit a 60% route share. the four
19:30games you're talking about this four game sample that was electric that four-week window of four consecutive games week 16 to the wild
19:39card round of the playoffs the bale the Bears trailed on 81% of their offensive plays every single game it was 75% or
19:48higher in all other games it was under 40%. It was fluky, extreme negative game script. And that matters to me because
19:56if you look at Hunter Hen Henry in games that he trailed that often, he was averaging 28 fantasy points per game. If
20:03you look at like absolute scrubs, it's the same thing. And so I worry, you know, maybe, you know, it was it was
20:10Loveland getting more work, which he deserved because the dude is like legitimately an amazing talent. I think he's already a top three, top four tight
20:18end in the NFL.
20:20um you know maybe he was finally getting the volume he deserved or maybe it was just game script and maybe we're we're
20:25underrating Kamehameh at the end of the day there's just like the fact that I can raise this argument for a round
20:32three round four tight end means I don't want to be drafting it instead I want to be drafting the later round value with
20:39the Tucker Crafts the George KDles the Isaiah likely of the world and so yeah I'm I'm I'm legitimately out on Loveland
20:48although in dynasty I'm a mass buyer.
20:51>> Sure. Absolutely.
20:53>> So my my argument then for Luther Burton, who I feel even more strongly about in the affirmative, uh you were
21:02talking about how, you know, Lovelin was the guy over Burton in that four game stretch. I will say Oli Zakius was still
21:09there and Chicago beat writers were all saying Burden's supposed to be playing the DJ Moore role. DJ Moore is not going
21:17to be with the team next year because that's the Luther Burden role they're they're uh you know grooming him to step
21:23into. And so we never really saw him firing at all cylinders. Um and that DJ Moore role is very similar to the Jarvis
21:31Landry role. You know when Ben Johnson was a wide receivers coach, Jarvis Landry in the slot led the league in receptions and then Aman Ross St. Brown
21:41with the Detroit Lions in the slot of a Ben Johnson offense led the league in receiving touch uh receiving first downs
21:47multiple years in a row. And I had this quote from Luther Burton that's that's uh you know in the tweet right below
21:54this is my offense runs through the slot wide receiver. Everywhere I've been my offense runs through the slot wide receiver. And who is the slot wide
22:03receiver in this offense? It's Luther Burden. And there was a quote just today that, hey, this guy reminds me of Jarvis
22:10Landry. This guy reminds me of Aman Ross St. Brown. And then Luther Burden, what are you left with? Insane hyper efficiency last season as a rookie. It
22:19was the best rookie season yards per route run since Odell Beckham Jr. And that's really one of the most predictive stats there is. You look at the top 12
22:27of that list, it's stacked with AJ Brown, Julio Jones. It's very rare for a guy to to to pop like that as a rookie
22:35and not be not just good but great. And so everything kind of pointing in this direction with also we didn't bring him
22:41up but Romo Dunay's foot is a serious concern. Really to me it seems like it's going to be the Luther Burden show in
22:492026. But I'm eager to hear your rebuttal.
22:53>> Yeah, absolutely. And obviously if Rome struggles, both of these guys are really great picks inside of that offense. But I think if everything goes according to
23:01plan, all three guys are healthy and play their role. I like Leland a bit better. I do know that per route run
23:08stat for Luther is insane. And that was also the other half of that Ben Johnson quote is we want to get Luther running
23:14more routes, which is a scary prospect for those arguing against burden. I do think that more routes are going to reduce some of that per route efficiency
23:22and bring that back down to earth just slightly. Just like Han 7.7 yards per carry after his rookie year, came back
23:28down to earth in a more manageable 5.7.
23:30I think Burton's will look a little bit more human once things, you know, start to settle in and he runs more routes.
23:35But the thing that I don't know is going to settle in for Burton as heavily is being a red zone or touchdown threat.
23:42you know, only having two targets and no touchdowns on 28 red zone routes in those two playoff games, producing six catches for 66 yards and no touchdowns.
23:52I definitely agree a lot of Loveland's production, four of those games are doing the heavy lifting. But I think a similar case could be made for Burton.
23:59You know, one game over 20 fantasy points in that big shootout against the 49ers. You know, that's a a very, you
24:06know, high output. It's a sign of what, you know, Burton is capable of. Um, but it's the only time that he did that. And
24:11I think, you know, you [clears throat] do think that some of these things are going to kind of come back a little bit
24:16more to normal next year. Like Lovelin having six touchdowns, Burton having two. Maybe that marks a little closer.
24:22But again, going back to the fantasy points projections, they have that number, you know, equalizing a bit. They have Leland going down to 5.5
24:29touchdowns, burn going all the way up to 4.6, six, but they still have Lovelin projected for about 10 more points over
24:35the course of the year with just a heavier target share, more touchdowns, more red zone looks. I think there's definitely a case to be made, especially
24:44in those last four games, that those scripts were a little unusual. The Bears were trailing. They didn't spend a lot of the year trailing, and it's, I think,
24:51worthwhile to ask, how well is Lovelin going to do in the games where they're ahead? But if you just break down, you
24:57know, the game scripts where it's tied or they're ahead, Lovelin is pretty far ahead of Burton and yards 254 to 187.
25:05He's ahead of yards per outr run in those winning game scripts, yards per target, red zone targets, first downs per outr run, expected fantasy points
25:13per outr run and p and passer rating when targeted. So I think in those scripts outside of the ones where they're trailing, Lovelin still has a
25:22pretty strong advantage. And that's all despite, you know, Burden having six design looks in those game scripts to, you know, Love One Zero. Burden having a
25:31first read percentage that's about 5% higher than Lovelands. They were designing more things and looking for Luther more often in those scripts, but
25:39it's just harder for him to find the end zone. Now, the scary thing is thinking about what happens if you send that Ben
25:45Johnson slot role. What happens if Luther becomes Am Ra? And that comparison Ben Johnson talked about this morning comes to pass. I think that the
25:53challenge is he's going to have a lot more competition to win that role and to have kind of the lion share of those
26:00routes. Last year, Loveland and Rome both ran more routes uh from the slot than Burden did. Rome ran about 24.2% of
26:09the Bears team slot routes to Burton's 14.5%.
26:12Love Burton's a monster. I think if you see him with more routes on the field, more routes from the slot, I do think
26:18Burden's going up. I think he's a very reasonable bet inside of those top 20 wide receivers, but the path is clearing
26:25for a guy that produced as the tight end too over the second half of the season with a lot more looks and a lot less
26:31competition from DJ Moore and Oli Zakius. I think in that high power Bears offense, I know betting on touchdowns can be a tough game, but I am betting on
26:40Lovelin to see the end zone quite often in 2026 and to make a strong case for the tight end one.
26:48Judge Trey Campberling, who wins this debate?
26:52>> This is a tough one for me personally because I would love to say that both of you guys lose as neither of you are
26:58taking Roma Dunay. If I could make the case quick, he he's the most talented player on the roster. We had Matt Harmon
27:04on last week and he gave what I thought was the quote of the summer in regards to Roma Dunay. Matt Harmon said, "We
27:11know Rome came out and was candid about his new normal. You don't think Malik Neighbors is dealing with a new normal
27:16right now? Uh, you don't think a guy like Keenan Allen was dealing with a new normal when he was so banged up. A guy
27:21like Julio Jones with the hamstring injuries, you know, during his career. A lot of guys deal with this new normal in
27:26the NFL and they make it work. I think Rome is the most talented player on that offense. And I think the second most
27:31talented player on that offense is Coloulston Love. So, I am going to have to side here with Brian uh for that
27:38reason. And I just think uh you know earlier in the summer where the ADPs were, Luther made a little more sense.
27:44Now, Luther's higher in ADP than both guys. It's just not making sense to me.
27:48So, uh I'm I'm going with Roma Dunce first and foremost, but after that, I'm going with Coloulston Lovelin. And let me give you the sound real quick.
27:59All right, Brian. This one is a, you know, this isn't an easy one. This isn't a popular one. You know, you're not
28:06making too many friends arguing the position that you're that you're going to argue. Uh so, let's hear it.
28:12>> Yeah. I I'm not going to lie, y'all. My luck may be about to run out. Uh when I opened the article and realized that not
28:19only was Scott high on Brooks, but he was an Exodia. You know, it made me think twice. And I will say I in a
28:26similar vein, I was drafting Jonathan Brooks all summer. I thought he was one of the best values until Jonathan Brooks caught up to and then in some format
28:34started to pass Chuba Hubard and ADP.
28:36That's when I think we've just gone a little bit too far. This is definitely an eat your vegetables pick. It doesn't
28:41bring me any joy. Uh, but I am on team Chuba at an equal cost. Chuba has been a top 15 proven producer. Brooks's case is
28:51largely built on projection. The fantasy points projections lean very strongly towards Chuba and his contract is fully guaranteed for this year. If I'm the
29:01Panthers, I'm betting on Jonathan Brooks in the future. He's probably taking over the reigns in 2027 and beyond. But in 2026, at equal cost, give me Chuba
29:10Hubard. The first reason is just production versus projection. As a general rule, you want to favor guys who have proven that they can do this at a
29:19high level against the best talent in the NFL. And Chuba has done that. In 2024, he was the RB13 by average with
29:2616.3 fantasy points per game. He was 12th in yards per carry. He was one of only four running backs that had a top
29:3215 success rate against both zone and man, gap, you know, kind of run blocking schemes. He or stopping schemes. Brooks, as Scott has often pointed out, he only
29:43has one season with 30 plus carries after high school. And so that's where the fantasy points projections come into play. The projection that I'm most
29:52concerned about is just how is it going to break down on the field. They project Schuba for about 12.83 fantasy points
29:57per game and Brooks for about 7.95.
30:01I might even have that mark closer. But I think that Chuba is much more likely to come close to his projection than
30:07Brooks is to his. Before Chuba had that calf injury last year in week four, he was producing 14 fantasy points per
30:14game, 54.3 rushing yards per game.
30:17Nothing to write home about, but about what you expect if you draft Schubet his cost. After that, his, you know, fantasy
30:24points per game dropped once he came back in week seven to 6.4 24 fantasy points a game, only 26.7 yards per game.
30:31He just wasn't the same guy and he tried to play through it. And as you think about injury and how it affects the
30:37player, that more than anything else is what leads me to believe if I'm the Carolina front office, if I've got an
30:44asset as strong as Jonathan Brooks, future the team, great future producer, everything kind of on the line, I just hesitate to think, why would you want to
30:53rush a guy like that back? make him, you know, kind of, you know, a featured, you know, workhorse RB. When you have a guy
31:00in Chuba Hubard that for better or worse, you can disagree with the Carolina Panthers contract, but like Scott talked about before with tight
31:08ends, it's a sunk cost. That money has been paid. Shouba's money is all guaranteed for this year. I think they're paying him to be an RB1. Now,
31:16that front office does believe in Brooks, but I think they're going to do what the Patriots did last year with Reandre versus Trey or what the Titans
31:24did with Demarco Murray versus Derk Henry. If you've got an older running back that you've paid that's still producing at roughly the same level that
31:33you paid them to produce at, you're going to lean on that guy for as long as you've paid them. And so, again, Scott,
31:38this one brings me no joy. I love Jonathan Brooks. it, you know, it's not the most fun thing in the world to be
31:44telling people you probably want to go with a guy like Chuba at 27 years old instead of, you know, the top drafted
31:50running back in his class from just a few years ago. Jonathan Brooks is incredibly talented. The profile is amazing, but it's largely based on
31:58projection. I'm going to go with the guy that I think can pretty comfortably be the RB-15 to RB20 if he stays healthy
32:04and produces at the level he's produced at the last two seasons in Chuba.
32:10>> Yeah. All right. My turn to argue against Chiba Huard. And I have to say it feels like an easy one. Uh I I do not
32:17think Chiba Hubard is good. Uh last year he ranked dead last in explosive run rate. Uh he had zero. No other running
32:25back with at least 100 carries had zero.
32:28It was just Chiba Hubard. So extremely non-exlosive. And then in the year previous he had the worst If we could pull it up on the screen, that'd be
32:38great. He had the worst yards per target of any player ever.
32:43Not just any running back, not just this past decade, any player ever. And so this actually really matters to Dave Canales. This was a big quote from Dave
32:52Canales right after he drafted Jonathan Brooks is like, "It's really important to my offense that we have a do-it-all running back who doesn't, you know, tip
33:01our play calling hand who can catch passes as well as run the ball." And you saw that when when Rashad White had a
33:08fantasy RB1 season with Dave Canales at ranked top three in Snapshare. I think that's what he's want that that's what he wants. Um that's what Cameron Wolf,
33:17you know, Panthers beat writer keeps saying is like if if this guy has a pulse, he's going to be taking over this
33:24backfield halfway through the season.
33:27Also, another point on Chuba Hubard sucking. I know he was he was a little banged up last year, but he averaged
33:3434.1 rushing yards per game. In the two games he missed, Rico Dattle averaged 195 rushing yards per game. Um, but yeah, Cameron Wolf keeps saying, "Yeah,
33:45this is this is going to be the Jonathan Brooks show as long as he's alive. Um, this he's going to take over this
33:52backfield. He has more upside. This is the player they drafted in round two.
33:57And we know, you know, the eating your vegetables pick isn't what wins championships. It's upside that wins championships. And that's what I see
34:07with Jonathan Brooks. I think in the first half of the season, you know, maybe it is a committee, maybe it is
34:13more Chuba. Um, but the final four games of the season matter exponentially more than the first. You know, the fantasy playoffs, you know, it's kind of easy to
34:22make it to the fantasy playoffs. kind of hard to make it to your championship and then win it.
34:26>> And I think Jonathan Brooks gives you a way better odds of doing that than Chuba Hubard.
34:34>> What do you think, Trey?
34:37>> This one's a tough one. Uh, but I'm I'm going to have to side. So, here's the deal. Okay, if you're looking at
34:43projections and you're asking me who's going to have the better fantasy season, right, is that the question? then I'm gonna go with Chuba Hubard because I I
34:51believe in my heart of hearts that his outcome is more likely better than Jonathan Brooks outcome. However, this is a game where Upside does win
34:59championships. And what are the odds that Chuba Hubard wins you your league?
35:02Effectively zero. What are the odds that Jonathan Brooks wins your league? Better than zero. So, in this situation, I am going to have to side with Jonathan
35:11Brooks. Even though my lean generally is we're not drafting any Panthers uh right now with all the injuries going on and
35:17how bad that offense looks. So, I am siding with Scott here. We're going with Jonathan Brooks, but I'd stay away from
35:23both uh if I could.
35:26>> Yeah, Jonath for for the folks at home.
35:28Yeah, I'm I'm very in on Jonathan Brooks. Actually, not on FFPC, maybe not on Underdog, uh you know, some of the
35:34sharper sites, but on Sleeper, he has a round 12 ADP. On ESPN and Yahoo, he's round 11, which is just crazy. All
35:44right, Brian, let's hit them with our final debate topic.
35:49>> What have you got for us?
35:52>> Oh, okay.
35:53>> Oh, no.
35:54>> Yeah, second to last. I apologize.
35:57>> Yeah, we got a couple more in the bag here. Um Scott's about to go on a generational heater. I think now he's
36:02heating up. Um you may have heard Scott talking a lot about Amma Ibuka. Um one of the hardest players to project. Um,
36:10but I'm going to lean towards AMA Ibuka finishing the season as a wide receiver one. He's a special talent with a huge
36:18opportunity after the departure of Mike Evans. And I think that his hot start was historic. That second half swoon was largely due to injuries and playing out
36:29of position. And that shift to a new Z-roll and his Zach Robinson offense should be a big boon in 2026. So to
36:36start, you may have heard Scott mention this fact before or Ryan. Not since the fall of the Berlin Wall have we seen,
36:44you know, somebody like Amecha. Only the third time since that's happened that we saw a wide receiver produce that kind of
36:51start. 102.4 fantasy points in his first five weeks.
36:55Uh that's in very rare air with Randy Moss and Puka Nua. It was not just touchdowns. there was a heavy, you know,
37:03look and he's a great red zone threat, but he had an elite 2.71 yards per route run, an NFL leading 145.3 pass rating
37:12when targeted, and a top 10 mark incatchable target rate. But then it all fell out. Uh, I bua and his injuries
37:21started to click in in week six and things quickly went bad for Baker. Baker went from being first in deep throw rate
37:27and seventh in catchable throw rate. uh and and se seventh in catchable throw rate, first in deep throw rate uh to a
37:34very very big collapse. Uh he went from first to 32nd in deep throw rate, which was where I was most dangerous to start
37:41the season. He went from seventh in catchable throw rate to QB28. Uh you may have seen that on quarterback when Baker
37:49Mayfield's arm was several different shades of purple and blue. You may have seen it a week earlier when injury expert Jeff Muller said, "Watch for
37:56quarterback to come out." I bet you're going to see exactly that for Baker Mayfield. So, if you follow Fantasy Points, you know it first. Uh, but after
38:04the injuries is really when things began to fall apart for Ibuka. Not just to Baker, but after his hamstring injury, I
38:11bua lost a lot of his strength and burst. He really struggled to hit top speed or to beat press coverage. But
38:19despite all of that, his expected fantasy points stayed more or less the same. They went from 14.2 2 in those first five games to 13.9 to close out
38:28the season. And I think you're going to see a lot more of the Ibuka who started the season to close it out. He was
38:34absolutely deadly in two wide receiver sets. Uh but unfortunately, he was in an offense that ran the highest number of three wide receiver sets in the league.
38:43Now he's getting Zack Robinson in a new offense. Uh, Zack Robinson called two wide receiver sets at the three wide receiver sets at the seventh lowest rate
38:53in the NFL. In those two wide receiver sets, which uh Robinson is much more fond of, and Ibuka produces much more
39:00heavily in, Ibuka has a.33 targets per route run. Um, and in Ryan Hughes piece on play caller tendencies, he did a
39:08great job of breaking down why both this and the shift to the Z-roll should really be good for Ibuka's production.
39:15And Matt Harmon broke this down recently as well in his last episode with Scott.
39:20It means more posts, more digs, more slants. It's not a cure all. And if you heard Scott talk about that with Brett
39:26Whitefield, you know that IA did run some slouts from the Z, some routes from the Z last year. injury did somewhat
39:33hold back his effectiveness from the Z, but returning to full health and Baker full health seeing more of that, you know, kind of offball inside slot roll
39:42in the Z, Eggbuka looks to be very deadly. He may not, you know, produce that same kind of start. That's the, you
39:50know, third hottest since the fall of the Berlin Wall. But if I can maintain even 80% of that pace, you're looking at
39:56a surefire wide receiver one next season.
40:00>> Yeah. So, I'm going to have to argue the opposite here. And I'll just I'll just point at his current ADP, which is what,
40:08wide receiver 15, 16ish. Uh, and then point out the downside here. So, yeah, weeks one through five, which is like the only time he was good, showed
40:19upside. Um, let's not forget, you know, Mike Evans was banged up, Chris Godwin wasn't on the field, Jaylen McMillan wasn't on the field, and then from weeks
40:29six through 14, those guys were still out. The target volume was immense. He was averaging nine targets per game, and he still was ridiculously unproductive.
40:398.9 fantasy points per game. Uh, worst fantasy points over expectation of any uh player in fantasy. He was literally the worst player in fantasy over that
40:49stretch. Sure. You know, he did pick up a hamstring injury, but that's what that's a that's a four to six week
40:54injury. Is that going to really last the the rest of the season? And then what happened weeks 15 through 18? He had a
41:0351.4% route share. He was sharing wide receiver three duties with Jaylen McMillan. They were splitting it perfectly 50/50. This is a guy we think
41:14is going to be a fantasy wide receiver one. He was barely wide receiver three in his own team. He was barely a starter
41:20weeks 15 through 18. Uh he had he had one 100yard game weeks 16 through 18. Uh Jaylen McMillan had a 100redyard game
41:30and he only was he was only active in four games, you know. So um really really worried about this downside, worried, you know, his hot start uh was
41:42really just a product of Chris Godwin, a shell of his former self. But hey, this guy's really good. You know, last full
41:49season he was fully healthy. He ranked behind only Jamar Chase and fantasy points per game. You get Jaylen McMillan who like a really promising rookie
41:59season. A player I was really high on. I said, "Hey, this guy's going to be I think this guy's way better than Jaylen
42:05Poke." And uh someone called me a fantasy boy. And Jaylen Poke just retired. So Jaylen McMillan, I think, is really talented. And so these guys are
42:14all going so much later in your draft.
42:16You know, maybe the the move is to bet on them instead of betting on Jaylen McMillan when he's already priced as
42:24almost a wide receiver one. I'll be honest, I feel like I was a little half-hearted there. Trey Trey Campberling, uh, when you break the
42:32news, who who won this debate?
42:34>> So, I I want to I want to go back a little bit in our debates here, too, and mention some of the things that we've
42:39just said. So Mech Eggbuka, of course, he started the season really hot. You know who else started the season really hot and then got injured? Roma Dunay. He
42:46said Jaylen McMillan was better than Jaylen Pulk. You know who was better than Jaylen McMillan at Washington? Roma Dunes. I just wanted to add that.
42:52I just wanted to add that little note there for you guys. Uh this one to me actually like Brian alluded to. This one's pretty easy. I'm I'm
42:58going with Scott here. It's hard for me to imagine a world where a Mecha Ibuka climbs up into a fantasy wide receiver
43:04one. If you're talking the team wide receiver one, of course I could see that. But for him to have a top 12
43:09finish this year, [sighs] there's some big names on that list that he's going to have to surpass to get that done. Uh,
43:14is it possible? Of course, it's possible. But, uh, yeah, I'm I'm saying he's not getting to that mark this year.
43:19He could pay off his ADP. He could be in that 15, 16, 17 range, but to get into that top 12, I'm just not seeing it this
43:26year. So, Scott, we're giving you this one.
43:30>> I'll I'll take it. I'll take it. I Amecha Ibuka is really tough to me. I keep saying he's maybe the toughest
43:36player for me to get right. And it's and it's not like anti- Ibuka. It's really more just like, hey, maybe maybe the
43:42better bet is a much cheaper Chris Godwin. But but more than not, I think I side with you, Brian, instead of me
43:50here. Um, you know, because he did have that hamstring injury, which really did show up in his NextGen stats. Uh, uh,
43:57play speed, the the miles per hour was so much worse after that first five game stretch. And then uh Baker Mayfield was
44:04hurt on top of it. He was on the injury report 11 different times with six or seven unique different injuries. Um and
44:11so and so yeah, you know, the buzz of camp, you know, really seems like Zack Robinson, like you alluded to, is really
44:17high on him. All right, what's our what's our last debate topic here, Brian?
44:23>> Yeah, so this is exciting.
44:25>> No, it's not our last. It's our second.
44:27Sorry.
44:27>> Hey. Oh, I was going to say, you know, I didn't know if we're going to do that last one. If this one's for all the
44:31marbles, that's okay, too, because this is a big one, Scott. This is one of the hottest debates in fantasy football. And
44:37it's perfect that we're tied 22 going into this one as I lose a headphone.
44:42And you know, we jump in and Scott, I know you said in your Exodia article, if you're not drafting Parker Washington,
44:47you can't be friends. Uh, I still will be drafting Parker Washington. I hope we can still be friends. Uh, but I got to
44:52go with my fellow Brian. Uh, this one is a little bit of head versus heart. I'm usually on that Modest Mouse kind of
44:59heart cooks brain kind of train, but I can't with this one. Brian Thomas' rookie year was one of the best ever
45:05produced. I think he's got a higher ceiling. His decline last year was largely due to injury. And although I do like Parker Washington quite a bit,
45:13especially in Dynasty, I think Thomas is the ultimate post hype injury discount sleeper. he looked like LA next year like last year's, you know, kind of big
45:23fantasy superstar before he got hurt and he's a steal heading into this year's drafts. So, the first thing to think about is what's the ceiling case if
45:32Upside wins championships. Brian Thomas Jr. produced the fourth most fantasy points of any wide receiver in the year 2024. He had one of the five best rookie
45:42wide receiver finishes in the last 50 years. He had 2.45 four or five yards per route run and was top 25 in first
45:49downs per route run. Two of the most sticky and predictive statistics for wide receiver fantasy production. And I think this is where the sample size
45:58really matters because you have a large sample of Brian Thomas' rookie year producing as one of the top five receivers versus a promising but smaller
46:08sample to end Parker Washington's season that also didn't quite get to the highs of what Thomas produced. Washington produced 22.3 fantasy points per game to
46:19close out an amazing four-game run in 2025. But in debate, we talk about this concept called recency bias quite frequently. The human mind tends to
46:28remember the thing that it saw most recently. And so it's easier to forget that Brian Thomas produced 23.6 fantasy points per game over that
46:37fivegame stretch to close out 2024. If you have a choice between a larger sample that's a little further back and a more recent sample that's much
46:47smaller, I think you're looking for that larger one. It's less prone to recency bias. It's less prone to some of the
46:53training camp hype that's kind of driving up Parker Washington's ADP, although that hype is very impressive.
46:59The better bet is Parker Washington in terms of a ceiling play. Now, I understand what you just saw last season was not promising. Uh that was a shell
47:07of Brian Thomas Jr. Um, you know, you can call it, you know, spring break. Uh, that ass dropped real quick from a 0.19
47:16mark pre-injjury to negative0.58 post injury. As Brian Thomas said, it no longer hurts for him to run. He had injuries to his wrist, to his shoulder,
47:27to his ankle, to his chest. I mean, just kind of put it up on the board and, you know, throw a dart. He probably had an
47:32injury there. and his cost is being influenced by a lot of non-sticky factors like drops or this idea that maybe he just misses playing with M.
47:42Jones or maybe he's become a field stretching decoy. All these bad arguments along with his injury have depressed his price and made it so that
47:52you can draft a true superstar at an incredible cost. And both of these guys have, you know, some downside risk. And
48:00I just think that Washington's is a lot more scary than Brian Thomas Jr.'s. Uh, one tweet that I do want to pull up is a
48:08great tweet from Dwayne McFarland that talks about guys who have Parker Washington's profile. Um, these guys who are drafted in the sixth round or later
48:17and produce these incredible seasons.
48:19You know, how often do they go on, you know, to replicate that fact? It just doesn't happen very frequently. And unfortunately, the fantasy graveyard is
48:28littered with profiles like Parker Washington, guys who pop and have some amazing stretches when the rest of the B, you know, when the rest of the pass
48:36catchers are down with injury. But I just think even if you look at last year, even when Washington went on that
48:42heater, you still saw Thomas seeing more snaps. If you see more heavy personnel after the tight after the Jaguars drafted every tight end available in the
48:51draft, that's probably going to play Parker Washington off the field more often. Now, there is some concern about Brian Thomas Jr.'s role. Denani wrote
48:58about this about how Thomas was pushed largely to a big play outside threat role. I don't think he's going to be
49:06relegated to just that role, but he is extremely threatening in that role. He is still the primary red zone target for
49:13Jacksonville. He's still the primary deep threat. And Scott, I know you like to point out, you know, Trevor Lawrence really produced a generational stretch
49:21of games with Parker Washington, but that period also coincides with when Liam Cohen pulled Trevor Lawrence aside after week 10 and said, "Let it rip."
49:30You know, this is an offense that is pretty deadly with the deep ball. Brian Thomas is their best threat there. He's
49:37also their primary red zone threat and he's produced a top five wide receiver season. I love Parker Washington. He's a great Exodia pick. If he weren't now
49:45going at the same price or higher than Brian Thomas Jr., I would have more shares. But at the same price, I'm
49:51betting on the proven top five producer and Brian Thomas Jr.
49:54>> All right, keep this on the screen here, Trey. Uh Brian, what happens when someone in a debate uses an incorrect
50:03source?
50:04>> Oh, uh >> because this is this is this is a really bad source. So, um, you looking at the names, first of all, I'd say these were
50:12a bunch of guys I I wasn't in on at all.
50:15Like, it was just very clearly the the case that, you know, Marcus Wheaten benefited from a bunch of injuries and just had this nice little four-game
50:23stretch. No one was ever excited about Russell Gage or Rashard Matthews. Jawan Jennings might be the only guy in this list and he dealt with like seven
50:32different injuries last year, couldn't stay healthy, uh, which, you know, hurt his production. But you're missing uh at least one key player and it was one who
50:43I said months ago. Uh I I've been saying Parker Washington reminds me of 2017 Adam Felen who I was all in on. And so
50:53he's missing from that list even though he perfectly perfect perfectly qualifies. I also think Doug Baldwin too might be another one too who I I was
51:01kind of in on who um but yeah I I keep hearing this argument. I don't think it's a good one. Um it's like, oh, you
51:07know, he was he was drafted day three and he Yeah. Look at any day three wide receiver who did what he did. You know,
51:14four consecutive games of 77 yards from scrimmage or more at least once in the first three seasons of his career since
51:222006. Here's the whole list. Parker Washington, Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, Puka Nua, Aman Ross St. Brown, Stfan Diggs, Marcus Coloulston. We're at the
51:31point now where draft capital doesn't matter anymore. It's really just what have you shown on the field? And what Parker Washington showed last year was
51:40he was an absolute alpha. You know, turning a Brian Thomas Jr. into a beta and turning Trevor Lawrence into a superstar. Trevor Lawrence was very
51:51underwhelming throughout nearly all of his career and particularly in the second half of last season. And then he turned it on. He averaged 28.9 fantasy
51:59points per game over his final five games. that led all quarterbacks by nearly 30% was easily the best five-game stretch of his career. And what was the
52:07catalyst behind it? I think it was Parker Washington who over this span averaged over 100 yards per game. No other wide receiver was over 42 yards
52:18per game. He was the clear alpha whenever uh all three wide receivers were on the field together. Parker Washington 3.23 yards per uh per route
52:26run. Next closest 1.58 32.1 target share. And so why would you move away from that when your offense clearly at its best and it makes sense
52:36that the offense runs through uh Parker Washington? Why? Because he's the primary slot wide receiver and Liam Cohen's offense always has run through
52:46the slot wide receiver. We saw that in 2021. Juan Dill Robinson was a running back and he he moves to Kentucky and
52:54Liam Cohen's like, "Hey, I'm going to turn you into a slot wide receiver. Is that cool?" And he's like, "All right."
52:58And then he leads the FBS, all FBS wide receivers in fantasy points per game, average 103 yards per game. In 2022,
53:07Cooper Cup broke records as Liam Cohen slot wide receiver. In 2024, I was all in on Chris Godwin as Liam Cohen slot
53:14wide receiver. He led the league or he ranked behind only Jamar Chase in fantasy points per game. And now you have Parker Washington stepping into
53:23that role. And by the way, with Chris Godwin, it wasn't just that he ranked behind Jamar Chase, but he when they
53:28were both healthy, averaged nine fantasy points per game more than Mike Evans, which is really what, you know, makes the difference for me because we know
53:38Mike Evans is an alpha, but in this offense, no, no, no. The slat wide receiver was the alpha and Mike Evans
53:44looked a little bit like a beta. So, it can be the case that BTJ is in many ways looking like the ideal post hype
53:52sleeper. He's he's kind of looking like a Mecha Igbuka except Agbuka you had a fivegame sample he was good BTJ you had
53:59an entire rookie season and then sophomore year derailed by injury or he kind of looks like Luther Burden where uh you know you had this historically
54:08great rookie year uh but he's going way cheaper and so like I get those arguments but I think in this offense
54:15the Liam Cohen slot wide receiver role is the alpha and you saw that last year at the tail end of the season when
54:22Parker Washington is breaking leagues.
54:24And like I said four months ago, he reminds me of 2017 Adam Thielen reincarnated and I think that's what we see in 2026.
54:35Judge Campberling.
54:37>> Yeah, keep this one pretty simple. I'll flip you guys two scenarios. Scenario one, I have a gun to my head and
54:43somebody asked me who I think is going to score more fantasy points. In that scenario, I'm going with Brian Thomas Jr. Scenario two, my boss is Scott
54:51Barrett and he loves Parker Washington.
54:53Who am I picking? Parker Washington.
54:55Now, we know situation one, not real.
54:58Situation two, very much real. So, let me give you a few more points here.
55:04>> I'll take it.
55:05>> We're going Parker Washington all day, baby. Parker Washington all day.
55:10>> All right. All right. Last last debate topic. Jonathan Taylor, buying or selling, which which side are you taking? Which side do I have to
55:19reflexively take against you?
55:22>> Great question, Scott. So, I'm a buy on Jonathan Taylor.
55:27>> I think Jonathan Taylor and Achan are the other two guys in that top five RBs with Bjan Gibbs and CMC. And I think
55:34that there's a pretty good gap after those guys.
55:37>> It's a similar case for Jonathan Taylor.
55:39Jonathan Taylor had more finishes as the overall RB1 in PPR in 2025 than Gibbs and Bejon did combined. His week-toeek ceiling is as high as any running back
55:50in football. The Colts are going to lean on Jonathan Taylor a lot more, especially at the start of the season, and he's locked in for an extension. And
55:58Taylor has been that guy in terms of every major predictive output, whether it's yards per carry, usage, explosives, touchdowns. If you need it, Jonathan
56:08Taylor's got it. But the first thing I want to talk about is he had an absolute wrecking ball start to 2025 that somehow
56:16seems to have been quickly forgotten even though it didn't occur very long ago. Last year, the first 10 weeks of the season before he hit that week 11
56:22buy, he averaged 27.4 fantasy points per game. He was the RB1 in four of the first 10 weeks of the season. So almost
56:31half the first 10 weeks of the season, Jonathan Taylor, then everybody else.
56:35six of those 10 weeks he was RB3 or better. When he came back from that bye-week, things took a little bit of a
56:42tough turn. Obviously, the Chiefs and Texans, it's kind of the reverse of those two games for Ral Dattle. Uh it's about as tough of a two defenses as you
56:49could get. Um they then fall behind 28-10 to the Jaguars and then he spends the rest of the season playing with a
56:55literal grandfather. And yet in those seven games, he was still RB20 or better in five of seven of those games. Which
57:04means even when the going gets bad, you haven't wasted a pick on Jonathan Taylor. But when the going is good, it
57:09sits good as anybody. Ceiling, he's an absolute monster. The floor, if he's playing with a literal grandfather, as bad as it gets, is about 12.6 fantasy
57:17points per game and still an RB2 finish.
57:20And I think things are going to look a lot better in 2026. It's not just playing with a guy who doesn't have
57:24grandkids. You know, in an offense where Pitman is gone, Pierce has been slow out of the gate. He was having trouble
57:31walking as of a month ago. Jones is still slowly working his way back and it takes a little bit for that deep ball
57:37accuracy to come back. I think it's a great bet to lean on Jonathan Taylor and DS at the start of the season. And I I
57:45get it. You know, we're skeptical of, you know, coach speak, player speak, GM speak. Uh but when Jonathan Taylor talked about his extension talks
57:53recently, he said they were good. When Carly Ers Gordon spoke, uh it was the opposite of those 2023 hardball talks.
57:59The quotes were, "We love Jonathan. He's one of our pillars. He's got our picture on the stadium for a reason and we would
58:06love it if he's a Colt for life. The offense runs through Jonathan Taylor and it's going to be an offense that needs
58:12to lean on the run even more with Pitman gone and with some injuries to the rest of the team and Daniel Jones working his
58:18way back in. And Jonathan Taylor is exactly the kind of guy you want to lean on. He's number eight in yards per carry
58:24over the last three seasons. And just three really quick fantasy points data notes. He's an endzone magnet. uh led last season in rushing touchdowns,
58:33second in expected fantasy points. Um they will turn to him at a crazy clip.
58:38His usage rate is almost unparalleled, and he's a home run hitter. He was number seven in explosives the last three seasons, uh with 32% of his yards
58:47coming on those carries, and he's locked in to an offense that's going to need him more than ever. Reproducing that 27.4 four per game start and those four
58:57RB1 finishes for the first 10 weeks.
58:59That's a really hard pace for anyone to maintain. But Jonathan Taylor looks on pace to produce a very strong 2026 and
59:06he's absolutely the guy that I like as the fifth of those five running backs.
59:12>> Yeah. Ke can we keep this on the screen here for my rebuttal? Um I really think this tells the whole story. So you talk
59:17about Yeah. those first 10 weeks before Daniel Jones got hurt, Jonathan Taylor was, you know, looking like he was going to break fantasy leagues. Yeah. Well, I
59:26will say they had the best record in football, which Vegas doesn't expect them to have this year. They had the softest strength of schedule over that
59:33span, and now their 2026 strength of schedule is the least improved and one of the most difficult overall. So yeah,
59:43over the last last year, Jonathan Taylor averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game in losses. Over the last five years, you see it on the
59:52screen, nearly 25 fantasy points per game in wins, 14 fantasy points per game in losses. He is the most game script
60:00sensitive player in fantasy football.
60:02This used to be Derrick Henry. He's still close. Now it's Jonathan Taylor.
60:08And so if we take the averages from the above graphic and you apply them to current win totals for the Ravens over
60:16under 11.5 wins and the Colts over under 7.5 wins, we should be expecting 19.4 fantasy points per game from Henry and
60:26only 18.6 from Jonathan Taylor. And yet Taylor typically goes 12 picks earlier.
60:31And so it's really just, hey, he ran hot with a really soft strength of schedule.
60:35the Colts overperformed.
60:38Uh, but if they're at expectation this year in a much tougher strength of schedule, you're gonna have a player who's super volatile week to week and
60:46really checking in as only like a mid-range to low-end RB1 and not a player who's breaking fantasy leagues.
60:54Judge Judge Camberling, who who wins this one?
61:00>> Let me throw some points on the board there. We were on tweets for quite a while. I'm giving this one to Brian
61:05here. Uh, and it's, you know, we go back to the Devon Achan argument. Jonathan Taylor was one of the guys that was
61:11keeping Devon Aan pushed back. I I think that when you look at this player there, there aren't many guys that have an
61:18opportunity to challenge uh Bejian Robinson or Jir Gibbs at the top league.
61:22I don't know that Jonathan Taylor does have that opportunity, but you know, like we talked about when you saw what he did last year when the Colts were
61:28healthy and when Daniel Jones was playing and that offense was humming, uh he he was the best running back in the
61:34NFL. I mean, people, you know, quickly forget that. Uh I will say this too, you mentioned, Scott, that you know, uh
61:41Vegas doesn't have them implied to win very many games. They didn't have them implied last year to win very many games
61:45either, and they kind of came out in surprise. So, uh I'm I'm siding with Brian on this one. I'm going with BTJ.
61:51Uh, and he's a guy that I'm going to be trying to get. If I if I I'm a big believer in pay up for Bejan Gibbs, just
61:57get one of those two guys. But if I can't do that, I'm I'm going right to Jonathan Taylor after that, uh, after
62:02seeing CMC slow down a little bit last year. So, >> all right, listen. I I'll give Brian a few more points, too. If you want to
62:09pull this up in the screen, I just dropped it in the chat. But one of my favorite stats, all running backs over
62:14their last 17 games, excluding games with a quarterback who is a literal grandfather, Jonathan Taylor, 24.4 fantasy points per game. That's more
62:23than Bejon. That's more than Jir Gibbs.
62:26It's actually tied with CMC. So uh leads all running backs uh in games without a literal grand. So, like that that ties
62:33into the extreme game script uh sensitivity is like it wasn't just like he was, you know, the Colts were losing games. It was he was playing with a
62:44literal grandfather a quarterback like that. Yeah, obviously he didn't score fantasy points. That that team was dead than dirt. But, um yeah, I mean I I side
62:53with you. Ryan Heath actually uh would have side with me. He he thinks this is a really compelling argument and that
62:59Jonathan Taylor is overvalued. Derrick Henry is undervalued for exactly why I laid out. Folks at home, I hope you enjoyed this. Please sound off in
63:08comments. Who do you think won? Who b who made the best arguments? Did I get my ass whooped by Brian? The uh is he
63:16now the new master debater of fantasy football? Uh sound off in the comments.
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64:06>> [music]
