0:00Say it again.
0:00>> You absolutely know the answer. And so 101 is the best pick you could make. It is, you know, pre-injjury, Christian
0:08McAffrey was the last time I ever felt this amazing about a 101 pick. And before that, it was Leian Tomlinson. And
0:14we really could be traveling back in time to like my first year ever playing fantasy football in my stepdad's league where it it was like snake leagues are
0:24broken. You have to go to an auction league because every year whoever gets the 101 or the 102 is going to win their
0:31league. It's the Leenian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Sean Alexander. It's just like they're too OP. They're too overpowered, you know? Maybe even like
0:40you have to ban Jamir Gibbs and Bejan.
0:43But yeah, so like I that's how strongly I feel about Jamir Gibbs who averages 28 fantasy points per game in his career
0:49without David Montgomery. But the second best pick is the 102. And like I also really love Bejan. I see that sort of
0:57power law potential for both of these players. I prefer Jamir Gibbs, but I like them both and they're both like it
1:03feels like tears above whoever comes next. Jamar Chase, Puka Nua, Christian McAffrey. Uh tears above is really what like I see 1,00 10,000 upside for Bejon.
1:14Um but certainly Jamir Gibbs on the better offense. I I I lean more heavily towards that. It still has that sort of,
1:22you know, from the days of old Leenian Tomlinson, Breece Holmes, and then there's everyone else. Uh, and then the the next best pick after the 102 is the
1:30105. Uh, because that's a little tier where you have Christian McCaffrey who every year he stays healthy. He finishes first or second at the position in
1:39fantasy points. It's just he only stays healthy like 60% of the time and the other 40% of the time you have to try
1:45and win your league uh without your round one pick. But in the game of fantasy, upside is more valuable than downside is detrimental. Perhaps yeah,
1:54probably even true in in round one. Um cuz cuz uh what was it two years ago? Uh
2:03Christian McCaffrey owners had a 67% chance of making it to their championship. Like it didn't matter anything else they did. It almost felt
2:11like it was impossible to win without him. It was impossible to lose with him.
2:15And like that's the sort of upside he possesses. And then obviously Jamar Chase and Puka and Nakoa Nua incredibly valuable. So I'd go with I'd go with I
2:24would go 101 102 105 104 103 106 112 111 110 109. Like that's >> Yeah.
2:36>> My god, that's that's a lot of information right there.
2:39>> Yeah, I'm a freak. Sorry. I I put a lot of thought into this. Yeah.
2:41>> No, you're good. Okay. I'm going to ask you one more question on where you're selecting. Yeah.
2:45>> If you're picking 103, do you begrudgingly just take Christian McAffrey or you going Jamar Chase or Pukan Nikua?
2:51>> So I would personally So in a in an ESPN 10 team, ESPN 12 team, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight
3:01end, one flex, I would take Christian McCaffrey. That's what I would do. If it's a three wide receiver, I would take
3:09>> Nua or Chase. It really feels like a tie to me. I kind of keep flopping back and forth, but probably chase a hair above
3:16right now today. Um, and by the way, if it's third round reversal, I don't care.
3:21It's still to me, it's still 101, 102, 105 as the best ones.
3:27>> Are you able to quickly articulate the math on why adding that third starting receiver ch like why that impacts the
3:34math so much that it would steer you in a different direction?
3:37>> I know the answer, but I want to know if you can quickly articulate. you know, uh, value is derived from partially
3:43scarcity and so it is the more scarce position and then, uh, adding that extra wide receiver starting spot kind of balances things out a bit. But like you
3:51could just do the back of the napkin math yourself, Brett, where it's like, okay, so in that such a format, there's
3:58there's only there could only be 32 starting running backs in the NFL, but you have 24 mandatory started and then you have the flex spot on top of it. Oh,
4:10and a number of these NFL teams have like really gross 50/50 committees. it just drives up the value of running backs, which by the way are also the
4:18positions that tend to score the most fantasy points or uh the the the you know power law outcome odds. Um and so
4:27the most you know week- toeek consistency and so it's it's yeah that's that's why.
4:33>> Gotcha. Okay. Um your plan of attack in the first three rounds. I know you covered this in your draft guide
4:39extensively and I again I'm gonna recommend people go read that. It is absolutely must readad. My my win rate in in reddraft leagues is disgusting and
4:48it's 100% because of Scott. So, um, anyways, what is what is your plan of attack in the first three rounds?
4:55>> Yeah, I think you could really just draft off of my overall rankings and be fine. Like, don't worry about ADP. Don't
5:01worry if you just drafted three running backs because I feel like I did a good job of baking in uh, you know, these
5:07these points. But, um, generally if you're doing that, uh, or even if you're not and you just want good advice, it's
5:14I I really feel like you're you're seating an edge if you're not starting running back, running back, or maybe if the right wide receiver falls, it's wide
5:23receiver, running back, running back, or running back, wide receiver, right?
5:26Basically, you just want two running backs by the end of round three. Uh, and so that has to do with everything we
5:31just talked about, positional scarcity.
5:33I think even in a three wide receiver league, this is this is my my preference. So, it has everything to do
5:38with that, but it's also every year is its own unique special snowflake. So, it's like, is zero RB optimal? Is it
5:46suboptimal? It depends on the season, Brett. And this year, I'm not seeing a ton of really good running back value in
5:53the middle to late rounds. Like last year, we had Cam Scataboo, who to me felt like a free square mispriced by two
6:00or three rounds. And so, I felt a little bit better about a hero RB approach. go running back, wide receiver, wide
6:06receiver. Uh, but this year I'm not see I'm not not feeling that strongly about it. Um, and again, the bigger thing is
6:12there's just a ton a ton of insane wide receiver value in the middle to late rounds of your draft. Really grossly
6:19mispriced guys. I I don't remember the last time ADP was this bad. Sig Bloom came on our show, said the exact same
6:25thing. Dro said the exact same thing.
6:27And so because of all that wide receiver value, it makes sense to push up running backs.
6:34>> Yeah. Personal anecdote here. I've been trying to go running back running back.
6:38I'm not forcing it obviously, but the board just seems to fall that way.
6:41Whether I'm picking at the one spot or the 12, it seems like it's fallen that way. Like I I shared on a show recently,
6:47I just did a draft where I got Jir Gibbs at the 101 and Derrick Henry at the 212.
6:52And I'm like that's literally the perfect start to a draft to me. So, um, I'll I'll do that every opportunity I get. All right, here's another big
7:01question people want to know, especially the standard 1 QB um, type drafters, which is most, you know, home reddraft leagues. Where are
7:09you drafting a quarterback?
7:11>> Uh, so in an eight team league, you have totally have my blessing to go get a Josh Allen, a Jaylen Herz. If you're in
7:20a softer auction league, you have my blessing to just do that. I'm going to give you enough value uh with the other positions
7:28later. Um but in a typical 12 team one quarterback league, I really prefer to take a late round quarterback approach.
7:37Everyone knows the Exodia quarterback every single year gets drafted in the double digit rounds and finishes top three at the position and fantasy points
7:44per game. Not to toot my own own horn too much, but yeah, like the hit rate on that has been incredible. And why is
7:50that? It's because ADP is just bad at the quarterback position. It's not me being any any genius. It's really just ADP is much worse at quarterback than it
7:59is running back or wide receiver. And there's always there's a lot of turnover outside of Josh Allen. And so it the hit
8:07rate on these late round quarterbacks is immense. It's also again due to positional scarcity. There's 32 starting quarterbacks. You know, one QB 12 team,
8:16you only need to start 12. It just doesn't matter and it just doesn't really it's not that impactful in terms of wins above replacement or odds of
8:24winning the championship. Like last year, Drake May was the Exodia quarterback. You got him really late in your draft. He finished second at the
8:32position in fantasy points per game. And uh still the war wasn't really that immense for him. Um and so yeah, I think
8:39I have my this year's Drake May that I feel really good about. Um, and there's honestly like three runner-ups I also
8:46like love at cost. So, yeah, I'm I'm really waiting at the position in a 12 team. You could you could win with any
8:55approach, but my preference this year especially is to really be the last team in your league to take a quarterback.
9:02>> Yeah. So, I was that was going to be my followup is like until I was really listening to your draft advice, my
9:08general like rule of thumb for myself was like, okay, once 11 QBs come off the board, I'll look to draft my first one
9:14kind of thing. Do you follow the a similar approach or do you keep it more based on the rounds? Historically, the
9:20the best quarterback to take, and it always kind of worked with the Exodia, too, was um once all 11 teams have one
9:28quarterback, there's like this three round lull because no one wants to draft a quarterback. And so, I would in competitive leagues, I would really push
9:36it and, you know, right try and time the start where people start drafting QB2s and then maybe I'd draft two. Um that's
9:45really how deep I'd push it. You don't I don't think you have to get that aggressive. In my draft guide, I talk
9:51about this low-end QB1 I really want.
9:54And it changes on whichever site you're drafting on. This low-end QB1 I really want. And then the Exodia quarterback who in some leagues is going in like the
10:03last three rounds. So like he's he's your safety net to fall back on always.
10:09And because he exists, because he's so mispriced, I never feel the need to to reach or feel the need to take a
10:16quarterback. Um, but also like, hey, if I'm in my own draft and there's no running backs, wide receivers, tight ends who really excite me, yeah, go
10:24ahead, take a take a quarterback. That's that's fine. You could do that. But generally speaking, it's just you want the opportunity cost. You you really
10:32want to pay up at the premium positions, which are running back and wide receiver. There's like a weird cluster um that I've been targeting. It's well,
10:41I'm not going to reveal your exod QB, but I've been I've been targeting him.
10:44But then even beyond that, you have like Jared Goff, he's the QB 16. Baker Mayfield, the QB 17. Jordan Love the QB
10:5118. Kyler Murray the QB 19. It's like you literally could just wait until the your last pick of the draft and draft
10:58one of those guys. And that's a that's a high enough floor to not really impact your your war. So, >> so, so that's that's a in a in a
11:05fourpoint for passing touchdown league, the whole edge is drafting quarterbacks who run. That's just such a cheat code.
11:12>> In a six-point per passing touchdown league, I'll give you the six-point Exodia. It's Dak Prescott. Just take Dak Prescott. He's
11:21>> He's basically Joe Burrow, but three or four rounds cheaper. Uh, so that's what you do. like literally just do that and
11:27then maybe maybe draft Stafford as your QB2 or if you miss out draft him or Baker, whatever. And then in a superflex
11:34league, what am I doing? Because talking about positional scarcity, you go from 12 of 32 starters being in your fantasy lineup to basically 24 of 32. That
11:45really puts them on par, if not above uh running backs. But again, ADP is so much worse historically at the quarterback
11:53position than running back that again, I like to take a late round quarterback approach. I like to, you know, really target these these these quarterbacks in
12:02the later rounds who are grossly mispriced because there aren't so many grossly mispriced running backs.
12:09>> Love it. When are you drafting a tight end? I know we did uh go to our YouTube and check out our tight end, you know,
12:15rankings and tiers episode. I think we give you a lot in that. But for right here, right now, what can you what can
12:21you say about drafting a tight end?
12:22>> Yeah, again, in an eight team league, 10 team, you could draft Bowers, McBride, totally have my blessing. 12 team. I'm
12:29really waiting at the position and I'm I'm I I'll reveal my strategy because I know people get annoyed when you know we
12:36keep too much behind the payw wall is it's it's Tucker Craft or George KD who are just so cheap, so grossly mispriced
12:46and then pairing them with a Dallas Goddard or an Isaiah likely and I think that's just like the perfect synergistic pairing Brett because yeah, you worry,
12:56hey, George KD might miss week one and then return week two. Tucker Craft, you know, he might be at a 70% route share
13:05in the first half and then jumps to 80% in the second half. Um, but Dallas Gddard has the softest early season
13:12strength of schedule at the position.
13:14Isaiah likely could be um the team's leading target until Malik Neighbors you returns to full health in November, let's say.
13:23>> Would you say it's likely? [laughter] >> I would say. and and and so it's like those are all like grossly mispriced
13:31players. And so again, like that what's my tight end strategy? It's well, where's the value? And that's where I'm seeing the value at the tight end
13:38position this year.
13:40>> Okay. Which which rounds of the draft do you consider like your league winning rounds? Obviously, you can't mess up your first round pick, but where where
13:47do you find the most value? Is it like rounds three through six, or do you have like a sweet spot you like to hit some
13:53targets in? Well, the rule with Exodas, Brett, is is it's illegal for me to to name someone an Exodia if they go rounds
14:00one through four. Um, and uh, so yeah, five through nine, five through eight, I would really see say, are the the league winner
14:12rounds where grossly mispriced wide receivers.
14:17There's three Exodia wide receivers, two Exodia running backs this year. And so that's really where I'm seeing the biggest, you know, like you could just
14:26draft off of ADP those first three rounds and build like a nice team. But like when you get to those rounds,
14:32that's where you really see the guy going in round five who should have went round three. And that's really where you're probably going to win your
14:41league.
14:43>> Awesome. Um, you mentioned zero RB probably isn't like the optimal strategy, but it is possible that it it becomes viable depending on how your
14:52draft is going. What is the viable zero RB path?
14:55>> Oh, absolutely. Yeah. I mean, like I think really this year you could win with any approach. Again, I said I I I
15:01think ADP is bad this year. Uh whether that's due to baseball brain rot, whether that's due to, you know, the rise of AI influencing rankings, I don't
15:10know. But um yeah, so if I were to take a zero RB approach, it would really be dependent on the white right wide
15:16receiver being there. So it's like I take a Puka Nua, Jamar Chase or Aman Ross Brown in round one. Round two,
15:24let's say all the running backs I love dry up, but uh Drake London's still there. So I take Drake London. Then I I
15:31still like really need a a running back in round three or round four. And then I take probably the the first Exodia
15:39running back. And then I take the second Exodia running back, which is a guy with real league winning upside that I see
15:45like after after the first what is it 20 running backs go like I this is the only other guy with league winning upside and
15:52he his ADP is like RB30. Um and then I So so he'll be my RB2 or RB.
16:01Yeah, probably RB2 or three maybe. And then the next running back is like I'll take right after him is is a high floor
16:11running back who's like gross. So it would be like a Raandre Stevenson or a Chuba Hubard or Tony Pard is like a
16:19really great value. He's like the cheapest guy who's probably starting and getting a 60% snap share. And so it's yeah it's pairing it's getting a round
16:28three or four running back for sure.
16:31grabbing this high upside running back I like and then grabbing some like boring it's eating your vegetables bread. It's it's just grabbing the guaranteed
16:39points. And I think you could be wildly successful because when you do that it means you you have an edge over everyone
16:45else at wide receiver and quarterback and tight end. And there is something to be said about zigging when others are zagging. You know like I said RB RB is
16:54optimal but you know there there is there is that is where the price is. you know, like that's where, you know, it's
17:00a little more expensive to do that to say you could say and, you know, the contrarian drafters might be getting more value. I I don't know. It It
17:09doesn't feel super persuasive to me, but um you could definitely win with a zero RB approach.
17:14>> All right. You gave away some of your exodious, >> by the way. Yeah. And also load up on on handcuffs if you took if you win zero RB
17:22the last three so rounds of your draft.
17:24Just draft a bunch of handcuffs. And you don't want to hope for an injury, but uh position yourself nicely in case there
17:30is an injury >> and and and scour the waiver wire every week. That's huge. Sorry. Go ahead, Brett.
17:36>> No, you're good. You're good. All right.
17:37So, you've already mentioned you you had a couple Exodas from last year that you wouldn't leave drafts without, like Drake May, like Cam Scataboo. Is there a
17:46player you're willing to give us right now that you're not going to leave a draft without? Maybe you're willing to go two rounds ahead of ADP on on them to
17:54make sure you get them.
17:55Well, yeah. You've you've heard me give this one away a few times. It's it's Parker Washington. You know, we had Theo
18:01Griminger. You and I were doing the NFL draft and he forced me. He was like, "You have to give us an Exodia." And I
18:08was like, "Well, the most grossly mispriced player in drafts right now is Parker Washington. He feels like five rounds too cheap." And, you know, slowly
18:16but surely, his price is rising up. He's still to me maybe the single most mispriced player in drafts right now. I
18:23really see easy wide receiver one upside for him and I see a pretty high floor as well. I know Chris Wet doesn't really
18:29agree with me on this, but he just looked incredible in those final few games. He has the Liam Cohen slot role
18:36that his offense runs through the slot wide receiver. You loved what he showed on film. Uh it honestly reminds me of uh
18:44you know Adam Thielen. You know I he was an Exodia once upon a time. he was a UDFA uh and he just had this like he he he he
18:52looked good in like the last four games that's all he did all year and then the next year he was a top five fantasy wide
18:59receiver and I I I see something similar. Um and uh yeah, this is this is probably my number one ride or die this
19:07year. It's >> funny you mentioned Adam Thelen. When I lived in Charlotte, North Carolina, I had a friend who worked for the
19:13Minnesota Vikings at that time, and they gave me a heads up on Theelen being a superstar after his rookie year, and
19:19then lo and behold, he became a became a superstar. All right. Instead of flag plants, how about uh someone you're fading? A guy like even if you had 25 to
19:3050 drafts, you're just like, I'm never leaving the draft with this player.
19:35>> Yeah. Oh, well, I said this as a joke on on my stream with Theo because he keeps I every, you know, we we prep for that
19:42and I'm like, "Hey, I cannot pick up another share of Trayvon Henderson.
19:46Please, like, I will I will rage quit the stream." And we just keep drafting Trayvon Henderson. Like, I keep capitulating to him because that's one
19:53of his guys. And now I have three FFPC teams with Trayvon Henderson. But I I said on the show he's like the
19:59anti-exodia. And it is true. I I really don't like the cost on Travon. I get the upside, but he really just feels like
20:06one of the most expensive handcuffs in the league to me. If you look at what what the Patriots did last year in the
20:14games that mattered most in the playoffs, Raandre Stevenson had a 70% snap share.
20:21>> Y >> Tvon Henderson was 31%.
20:24Uh he averaged he averaged four fantasy points per game in the playoffs last year. And the crazy thing about it is if
20:30you look at the EPA onoff splits, the Patriots with Raandre uh on the field was like 0.25
20:41with Tvon Henderson was like negative.3.
20:44And it's like they they did not want him on the field and they were better off for it. Maybe he was playing through an
20:50injury that that we'll find out. But, you know, the vibes around camp kind of, you know, one of the I we one of one of
20:56our video clips went out on Twitter and uh uh one of the Patriots best beat writers commented on it. He was like,
21:02"Yes, Scott's 100% right here." Like, Raandre is the guy you want to draft, but Trayvon goes above him in every single draft.
21:10>> Interesting. Okay. I know we're going to do a sleepers episode eventually, the two of us, but which players to you
21:17matter matter the most in the final rounds? And do you have like a crazy deep sleeper you want to drop right now?
21:23>> A crazy deep sleeper I want to drop. Um, so it's what is a sleeper to you, Brett?
21:33Like in a in a casual league like Josh Downs is a sleeper and I I you know >> like do like last pick of the draft like
21:40ceiling dart throw if everything >> again casual league last round it could be like Jakori [snorts] Kroski merit but like if we're talking about FFPC then
21:50it's Malik Washington.
21:53>> Yeah, that that's >> tank. What how about Tank Dell? How about like Jaden Higgins just suffered a season ending injury. Tank Dell was the
22:01OG ascot when he was healthy. He looked unbelievable.
22:06Um and so it's like yeah, maybe he's never going to be the same player again after a devastating injury. But if
22:12that's wrong, like yeah, he's he's one of the most mispriced players in all of drafts right now, right?
22:18>> Yeah. I'm not necessarily a big believer it's ever going to h He hasn't practiced two days in a row yet,
22:23>> right? But I Yeah.
22:24>> Yeah. Yeah, that's a good counter argument. [laughter] >> Yeah, >> but I get the sentiment. I get like Malik Washington, too. Like he could be
22:32a 100 plus target guy and you get him with the last pick in your draft. Like that makes sense. That's the kind of
22:37deep sleeper I'm looking for. So you you did answer adequately. All right, I have one more question for you and then we're
22:42going to get out of here. You ready?
22:43>> Yeah.
22:44>> Who are the worst fans to draft with and why is it Bears? I'm just kidding.
22:49That's going to do it.
22:52>> I had to I had to do it. I have to Scott and I well and mostly me. I've been in a
22:58feud with Bears fans since >> Hey, I said this on the last show. If the Bears are We need a bet. We need a
23:05bet where if you're wrong about the Bears, you have to wear a Caleb jersey every single episode for an entire month.
23:15>> If the Bears do what?
23:17>> Finish top five in scoring.
23:20>> They're going to finish top five in scoring. So then it's Benj. Why do you hate them?
23:24>> I I don't hate the Bears.
23:26>> If Caleb If Caleb is above average in catchable throw rate.
23:32>> Oh, bet. Done. [laughter] >> Every episode for a week or for a month >> for a month. So let's do 32 qualifying
23:41quarterbacks.
23:41>> Wait, I I got a better I got a better one.
23:43>> Okay.
23:44>> If Caleb Williams Yeah. 32 qualifying quarterbacks. If he's above average in catchable throw rate, I will wear a Caleb Williams jersey during the entire
23:53draft stream when we do the NF our NFL draft coverage.
23:56>> I want an entire month. I want that plus an entire month.
23:59>> All right. That plus an entire month.
24:00>> So So, so what is is it is it across the full season? Are we going to have to wait till January to see this or could
24:06it be by Thanksgiving? Okay.
24:08>> Yeah, we'll follow it and it'll be uh across the whole season.
24:12>> I like that. So, >> I'm trying to get back in Chicago's fans good graces. I'm trying to win them back.
24:18>> I'm not.
24:18>> Listen, I love Luther Burden. I love Coloulston Lovelin and Dynasty. I love Ben Johnson.
24:24>> Same. Same. Love them all.
24:27>> I just don't think Caleb Williams is as good as Bears fans. Apparently, that's enough to >> chill. Let's I I want Trey to let us do
24:35>> negativity. No one wants to hear this. I want Trey to let us do an episode of Brett me read Reed's mean tweets because
24:41I have some absolute bangers from a guy.
24:43A dude yesterday called me liver king, which is legitimately funny by the way.
24:48>> He's better than Grover. I'll say that.
24:51>> All right. Well, that's going to do it for us today on Fantasy Football Daily.
24:55Remember to head over to fantasyoints.com. New fresh website, front office tool. All of Scott's draft prep is on there, the draft guide, the
25:03articles. Thank you for listening. We are out.
25:11>> [music]