Projections Expert Answers Fantasy Football's Biggest Questions
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 2 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 14, 2026
Published
Fri, August 14, 2026
17
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Brock BowersCarnell TateCole KmetD.J. MooreDalton KincaidJahmyr GibbsJames CookKeaton MitchellKeon ColemanKhalil ShakirKimani VidalMalik NabersMarvin Harrison Jr.Michael Mayer
Player analysis
Player insights
Brock Bowers
NegativeRole34:41
Bowers' mismatch value is maximized when lined up in line or from the slot, where he forces defensive adjustments (corners in the box, big safeties, or linebackers) rather than when lined up out wide against corners, where he loses the element of surprise. The source advocates for a steady mix of inline and slot usage to maximize his positional advantage. Bowers is probably fine as a blocker despite questions about his run-blocking development; the source prefers a more athletic guy on backside cutoffs for outside zone schemes, noting that tight ends that play every down develop blocking skills quickly. Sets up for Bowers to be the tight end one this year given the current offensive setup; volume is king and even if he gets eight targets a game, that's better than most tight ends. The source is not worried about Bowers as long as he keeps getting the ball thrown his way, noting that even four catches on eight targets would exceed typical tight end production.
Insight pageCarnell Tate
PositiveRole13:03
Carnell Tate's week-one role and target share will be elevated relative to similar draft-pedigree rookies due to team context. The source notes that Tate in Tennessee will be 'ready to go right away,' in contrast to Malik Nabers in Philadelphia. This team-context advantage means Tate's target shares will be 'quite different' and higher in week-one projections despite comparable draft pedigree.
Insight pageCole Kmet
NegativeDepth Chart38:39
The Bears have paid Cole Kmet and drafted tight ends in the first round last year and second round this year, signaling the team's investment in a heavy, play-action-based offensive scheme. This personnel investment tells you the Bears want to implement a play-action pass game, which supports Kmet's role as a key target in the offense and benefits the overall passing game architecture for receivers like Odunze.
Insight pageD.J. Moore
PositiveProjection15:35
DJ Moore is expected to be the Bills' go-to WR with 110–120 target projection. The source spent time around the team and identifies Moore as clear top option. Chemistry with Josh Allen feels strong; both players coming off down years and from same draft class, creating motivation to put up volume. The source notes Moore coming off least productive season but has averaged over 1,000 yards across eight years.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveProjection15:35
Dalton Kincaid is identified as a dynamic TE and clear third option in Bills offense; expected to flirt with ~100 targets (give or take 10). The source spent time around team and identifies Kincaid as part of clear top three despite history as part-time player. The source notes efficiency was on his side last year regarding Kincaid's role.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection23:43
The source projects Gibbs at 368 fantasy points for 2025 and 347 for 2026, with the decline attributable to the 15-game vs. 16-game projection difference rather than a talent or role decline. For 2026, the source projects Gibbs with approximately 4–5 more carries per game and more routes per game, offsetting the game count reduction. The source ranks Gibbs as his highest projected overall player and would select him 1st overall in any fantasy draft, indicating elite confidence in his 2025 season.
Insight pageJames Cook
PositiveUsage20:24
Cook is projected to have his first 50-catch season in the NFL, with expectations of around 50 catches (42 targets on a 15-game projection, ~3 targets per game). This represents a major shift from his historical role as a runner; the source notes Cook was drafted to be a pass-catching back but hasn't filled that role until now. Joe Brady, a Sean Payton disciple, follows the Payton/Pete Carmichael model of heavily targeting running backs (historically Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara). Cook's reduced carry load from 300+ last year is expected to be offset by increased pass-game work, which was a major focus during training camp and aligns with his original draft profile. With the Bills' three-tight-end personnel designed to create mismatches in the pass game, Cook is positioned to finally realize his pass-catching potential. If he reaches 50 catches, the source ranks him as RB5, behind only CMC, JT, and two others.
Insight pageKeaton Mitchell
NegativeRole24:48
Mitchell is part of McDaniel's three-headed backfield approach alongside Kamani Vidal and Will Hampton, with a hot-hand rotation expected. McDaniel put up wanted posters with Mitchell's face during free agency, signaling his value to the system. Mitchell fits McDaniel's archetype of super-fast, outside-zone-heavy backs similar to Mostert and A'Chain in Miami. However, his inclusion in a three-headed monster limits his standalone volume ceiling. Additionally, Hampton and McDaniel himself have indicated the Chargers offense emphasizes inside zone, suggesting Mitchell may not be the primary back despite the free agency signing and archetype fit.
Insight pageKeon Coleman
PositiveRole17:07
Coleman is projected for around 50 targets in 11 personnel as the primary third receiving option behind DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Joe Brady has repeatedly validated Coleman this offseason, saying 'the best thing that happened for Keon Coleman's career was me becoming the head coach,' and Josh Allen was a catalyst behind his drafting. Despite concerns that Coleman won't live up to his 33rd pick investment in volume, he has earned an unusually high snap share immediately in his career without fully validating it, suggesting the Bills will continue to give him every opportunity. The source prefers Coleman's edge over Josh Palmer for the third role despite Palmer's recent practice momentum, because Coleman is likely to receive more consistent opportunity.
Insight pageKhalil Shakir
PositiveProjection15:35
Khalil Shakir is identified as a dynamic pass catcher and clear second option in Bills offense; expected to flirt with ~100 targets (give or take 10). The source spent time around team and identifies Shakir as part of clear top three alongside DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid, despite history as part-time player.
Insight pageKimani Vidal
NegativeRole24:48
Vidal is part of McDaniel's three-headed backfield approach alongside Katon Mitchell and Will Hampton, with a hot-hand rotation expected. This mirrors McDaniel's historical usage patterns with multiple backs in San Francisco and Miami, limiting Vidal's standalone volume ceiling despite his inclusion in the system.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveRole13:03
Malik Nabers' week-one target share projection will be suppressed relative to his draft pedigree due to team context. The source compares him unfavorably to Carnell Tate, noting that Nabers in Philadelphia is 'probably not' ready to go right away, whereas Tate in Tennessee will be 'ready to go right away.' This team-context adjustment means Nabers' target shares will be 'quite different' in week-one projections despite similar draft pedigree. The source uses draft pedigree as baseline and tweaks based on offensive situation and team fit.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveBreakout40:08
The source identifies Marvin Harrison Jr. as one of the most talented wide receivers coming out of college who has suffered from a horrible environment in Arizona. The environment critique centers on Kyler Murray's limitations: Harrison was used primarily on boundary routes, and when run on deep crossers, Murray did not throw those balls. The source prefers Harrison over Michael Wilson because he is the overall better player; if Harrison produces in an improved situation, it would hurt Michael Wilson's target share, suggesting the source expects upside if the environment improves.
Insight pageMichael Mayer
NegativeRole34:35
Michael Mayer is identified as a really good run blocker for the Raiders, making him the preferred choice for 12 personnel point-of-attack blocking assignments. This role distinction suggests Mayer will be used in run-heavy packages while Brock Bowers handles more athletic backside assignments in outside zone runs, indicating a complementary tight end split rather than Bowers being the primary blocker.
Insight pageMichael Wilson
PositiveRole40:26
The source rejects the notion that Michael Wilson is filling a 'Puka role' in Arizona's offense, arguing that such a role was invented for Puka Nacua and does not exist as a repeatable archetype. Instead, Michael Wilson plays the Michael Wilson role—a hybrid slot/outside receiver role. Critically, if Marvin Harrison Jr. produces, Michael Wilson is the receiver most likely to suffer in target allocation, as Trey McBride will maintain his share.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveBreakout7:30
Parker Washington's 2025 season is statistically most similar to Romeo Doubs, Jerry Judy, and Allan Lazard in 2022, plus 2024 Tyreek Hill; however, the source emphasizes that for Washington to break out as expected would be an outlier outcome given his career arc to date. The comparison tool shows his company is not great, and he would need a DeVonta Adams-like trajectory where early skepticism gives way to stardom—a rare path. In week-to-week projections, early-season Washington performance will be difficult to calibrate; the source uses him as an example of the challenge in weeks 1–3, noting that if Washington posts a 30% target share in week one or two, it's unclear whether that's sustainable or a fluke.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
PositiveProjection29:45
The source flags Puka Nacua as a vulnerable receiver despite her role in the Rams' 12/13 personnel packages where she and DeVonte Adams are projected to combine for over 55% of target share. The vulnerability stems from the Rams' aging roster (old Stafford, often injured Puka Nacua herself) and McVey's run-first philosophy with a two-headed monster at running back, which could suppress overall pass volume and limit upside despite high target share concentration.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:15It's a first read takeover live on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. Uh, for those who have never listened to First Read, we have a very specific way we
0:24like to do things and it comes with an intro and so I'm just going to go ahead and do the intro for the podcast feed.
0:30Thank you for tuning in today. Here we go.
0:34First read. We're your first read. The film and analytics podcast featuring Joe Marino of Locked On and myself, Brett Whitefield, the COO of Fantasy Points.
0:44This podcast is powered by the Fantasy Points data suite. Let's get after it.
0:51All right, I got that off my chest. Joe Marino, how are you today, sir?
0:55>> I'm good, man. I watched uh new football for the first time in it feels like forever watching Jeremiah Love and
1:01Fernando Mendoza with their preseason debuts. I'm excited to talk to Chris today. This is uh this is an exciting uh first read takeover.
1:09>> Yeah, first read takeover today. We are we have Chris Wet joining the show.
1:12Chris, how are you today, sir?
1:15>> I'm doing good. Uh, I'm listen to every episode of First Read all the time. And I, you know, as somebody that used to
1:21work really close with you and be, you know, we used to talk about football a lot, random hours of the night, charting
1:27into the late uh hours and then super early hours. I don't get to do that as much now. So now I just listen to First
1:33Reed and I argue with you in my head about about things that I wish we were still talking about. So this will be
1:39fun.
1:39>> That's that's awesome. Yes. So, the point of today's show is for the people who aren't familiar, fantasypoints.com has the best projections in the industry
1:48and Chris Wet is the reason why. And part of Chris's process is he likes to pick my brain on some X's and O's type
1:54thing. U but that's not the main part of your process. So, before we kind of like dive in, I want to get the people
2:00learning about how you do things, why our projections are the best, where it all starts, what it looks like for Chris
2:06W. kind of take us through the the beginning phases of your projections process for the seasonl long stuff and then how you tweak that into the season
2:13as we go week to week.
2:15>> Yeah, so the I mean the process really begins about a month after the Super Bowl, you know, uh first few weeks of
2:22March. I basically start going through every single coaching change that happens uh down to coordinators to position coaches, everything anything any team did changes-wise on their
2:32coaching staff and try to run through a ton of data on what those coaches have historically done, what kind of players
2:38have been on their team, stuff like that. Uh from there, that basically takes me right into free agency. So, we start getting guys signing on new teams
2:45and whatnot. And once that like first wave of free agency starts is when, you know, projections start for me.
2:51basically start from nothing and go all through all through all 32 teams and project every player that I think has a
2:58realistic shot at making the team in a few weeks and and kind of go from there.
3:02Um, a lot of models and data, you know, spit out these, you know, baseline numbers that I then tweak based off of
3:09all that info I've already taken in, the coaching changes, the roster moves, stuff like that. Um, but in the end, everything matches up. You know, the the
3:17quarterback will throw x amount of targets and receivers will get those many targets. the quarterback will throw for x amount of yards and there's that
3:23many receiving yards projected for the receivers. Um so go through every team that way. Um all kinds, you know, I think I project like 20 plus different
3:31stats for every player down to like sack rates and scramble rates and um design carry shares, QB sneak rates, all all
3:38kinds of stuff. Um and uh that stuff, you know, gets tweaked. you know, that first run is done right before the draft
3:44and then postdraft you get all the rookies projected in. And then from that point till, you know, this time, we're just doing tweaks all up until the
3:51season as we get more news, um, injuries happen, whatever.
3:55>> I have so many questions that spin off that, but like >> Yeah, I do, too.
3:59>> Yeah. Well, Joe, why don't you ask one then?
4:01>> Let me ask because I I I do annual projections for one team, just the Bills. I couldn't imagine doing it for
4:08all 32. And my process starts with figuring out how many offensive snaps are there going to be. And then from there, how many passes and how many
4:16runs. And I got to be honest, I feel like that's the most difficult part. How do you land on that piece of it of just
4:23knowing the total volume at your disposal for each team that it gets you into the right ballpark? Because if you're off on that and you don't have
4:30the right amount of passing attempts or the wrong the right amount of rushing attempts, those volume numbers aren't going to add up the way you want them
4:35to.
4:36Yeah, that's that is probably the hardest part of the all of this and and it's where I yeah, I start at the team
4:42level with every team. It's getting the pass rate and the plays per game dialed in. Um, we do our best, you know, we we
4:49try to look at coaching trends. We look at projected win totals, stuff like that to give us an idea of like, is this team
4:55going to be leading a lot? Are they going to be trailing a lot? What do they like to do when they get in those
4:59situations? But sometimes we have, you know, a first-time head coach and or a first- time play caller that we just we
5:05really don't know. We really don't know and we kind of just, you know, there's some league average stuff baked into those numbers where it's like, all
5:11right, if we don't have a lot of data on this guy, maybe we just kind of stick to close to league average and then maybe,
5:17you know, as the offseason goes on, he'll kind of give some hints on to like how he wants to play. uh we'll see some
5:24stuff in the preseason that sometimes we try to take information off of, but it really is like uh let's assume we know
5:30as little as possible and kind of go from there. There are teams that would have been around, you know, like the
5:35Zack Taylor Bengals, we know what they're going to do. They're going to pass a ton. The Andy Reed Chiefs, they're going to pass a ton. Uh the
5:41Baltimore Ravens are going to run a lot.
5:43uh all that like there is teams that we kind of do know, but you're right, it is it is by far the trickiest part and we
5:48just do our best to try to get as close to what we think this team wants to do and what like Vegas is projecting them
5:54to do win loss-wise and go from there.
5:57>> So, it kind of starts as like a model then, right? You you have a you have a model. How much historical data does the
6:03model take in and does like >> the way that's weighted change the further out you get from the from today?
6:09Yeah, the basically I'm working off of the entire Fantasy Points data history.
6:14So that goes back to 2021. You go really you go farther back than that, it really doesn't matter anymore. Uh even even
6:21honestly going back to 2021 doesn't help all that much. So uh it it does weight those more recent seasons the heaviest
6:28and then we kind of you know like I said that's that'll baseline model will spit out and then we do some tweaks from
6:34there.
6:35>> I gota I got to just point out a comment here with the chat. Mhm.
6:39>> Kflip 4538 says, "Brett pounding beers at 10:00 a.m." This is not true. This is a amazing pier. This is a sparkling
6:48water.
6:48>> Okay.
6:49>> Sounds Sounds like an English beer to me.
6:51>> Are those protein beers? There you go.
6:53That's more like it.
6:54>> There we go.
6:55>> Exactly.
6:58>> Chris, let me ask you this. I love projections, but I know it's got to be really difficult to really go in on breakouts.
7:09>> How How do you get How do you get there?
7:10Because I know your projections are probably rooted in most likely outcomes, but it's only fun if there's some guys that you really plant your flag on that
7:20are going to put up the big numbers. How do you how do you get there with those types of players? Yeah, if Scott Barrett
7:25was on this show right now, he would probably say that is probably 90% of the stuff we argue about is because he the
7:31views upside is everything and and you know and I unfortunately I just can't do that when doing the projections. You you
7:38nailed it. It's the most likely outcome, not what I think will happen, not what I think there's a chance of happening.
7:43It's the most likely outcome, which is really just a range of outcomes. It could be it's capturing the ceiling of guys. It's capturing the floor of guys
7:50and and in the middle is that most likely number. So yeah, it's really hard. Uh like there's got like this year, you know, Luther Burton, Parker
7:59Washington, these guys, a lot of people are projecting to take big steps.
8:04Everything every research way I've tried to do this, it's always like guys kind of tend to do what they've always done.
8:10And until they show you something differently, you're going to be more wrong than you are right when you if you try to always project, you know, a
8:17breakout or a a different role for a guy or whatever because we the more you think you know, the more you you really
8:24don't know and you're just going to get yourself in trouble.
8:26>> Well, the the scary thing too for a guy like Parker Washington specifically, and Chris, you're the one who pointed this
8:30out to me is like based on where his career is at and how it started, for him to break out the way we're expecting, it
8:37actually is quite the outlier. Do you want to talk about that a little bit?
8:40And like you have a comparison tool you built where you can show like similar career arcs and Parker Washington's company is not great. Is that is that
8:49incorrect to say?
8:51Um, I don't have it up right in front of me, but yeah, it's it's you're not going to see you're not going to see guys like
8:57um I think when I talked to you about him, I was like, he kind of has to have like the Dvonte Adams career arc where
9:02like those first few years everyone was kind of like I don't know about this guy and then, you know, Dvonte Adams became
9:08who he was. But Parker Washington like Yeah. Uh, so his his like 2025 season is like most similar seasons to guys like
9:16Romeo Dubs, Jerry Judy, Allan Lazard back in 2022. He's got some decent ones in there like 2024 Tyreek Hill, 2024
9:25Chris Alve. Um, but like as a whole, like like I said, it feels like he has to have that Devonte Adams career arc,
9:32but he really like he he doesn't even compare to him off of the the stuff I just looked at. So, it's
9:38>> it's tough. Like, yeah, Parker Washington's not brand new in the league. He's been around for a few years now. So, we've seen countless examples
9:46of guys having awesome late season surges from high draft picks to low draft picks and then we get to the next
9:53year and they just kind of fall back fall back to the wayside.
9:56>> What was the name of the player you invoked the other day? Was uh former Eagles breakout player.
10:00>> Yeah, I said Travis Fulgum who's not really comparable, but what a pull.
10:07>> That's disgusting. Okay. You mentioned um that it all starts right after the Super Bowl. You get the rookies in and
10:13then kind of from then till now you're tweaking. What kinds of things make you tweak? Are you running off coach speak?
10:20You running off vibes? Is it simply just you argue with me and Scott and Graham and the crew all day or what what kind
10:27of tweaks are you making and why are you making them?
10:30>> Yeah, pretty much any of those reasons.
10:32uh things coaches say uh uh particularly this time of year, you know, we finally get reporters saying this guy's running with the ones or twos and stuff like
10:40that. The thing we probably buy into the least is like the beat writers saying this guy looks great or this guy doesn't
10:47look great. Like those guys watch a lot of football, but they aren't scouts, they aren't, you know, coaches. There's so much that they don't know when it
10:54comes to evaluating talent. So again, that's something that'll probably get you in more trouble than not. Um, but yeah, coach speak, uh, argue like you
11:02said, yeah, arguing with you, Scott, Graham, whoever. Uh, you know, I I make mistakes. I don't think of every out, you know, avenue through from back in
11:10March. So, yeah, sometimes I'm just like, "All right, I think you're right.
11:13Let's tweak this number." Um, but yeah, there's constantly thinking about what where we're, you know, where we're short, where we're too strong on a guy
11:22and deciding, is this what something I want to be in on or not.
11:26Joe, I'll toss it back to you in a second, but the last question I want to ask you. So, I know we we hit the
11:31seasonl long projections right now, but then as we get into the season, you have to project them on a week-toeek basis,
11:38and that's a whole another animal. How quickly are you adjusting to what's happening in real time? Like, if Barker Washington, for example, starts the
11:45season with a 10 target game, then 11 target game, and it's a good variety of short and long passes, the pass rate in
11:52Jacksonville is really high. Like how quickly are you adjusting to now what you're going to be projecting him week overw week?
11:58>> Yeah. Uh weeks one, two, and three are probably like my biggest nightmare of weeks of the entire calendar year. It's
12:04it's week one it's we know nothing.
12:07We're just going off of, you know, what we've kind of analyzed all offseason and we're going to be massively wrong in a
12:12lot of spots. Week two is we got now one game of a sample and we have to decide is this a real thing? Is is Parker
12:20Washington having a 30% target share going to be a thing moving forward? Is it was it just a fluke? And then week
12:26three is kind of similar except now you got two data points. So not as bad as week two. But yeah, that week one, two,
12:30and a little bit of three are brutal for projections because you're just you're forced to make gut calls on what's real
12:37and what's not. Um and you you just have to do it. Um, but after that, yeah, we're we're pretty quick on adjusting,
12:44you know, what we think is real and what's not and if does it make football sense of why a guy is performing well or
12:51not performing well, all those kinds of things. La >> last one for me is going to be about rookies. How do you handle that? And
12:58it's a completely new variable. How do you do it?
13:02We've got um we got enough of a history of like where uh based off of like draft pedigree and stuff like that to give us
13:08like an average of like okay first round wide receivers typically average this in their first year efficiency wise target share wise all those kinds of things.
13:18Then we obviously tweak it based off of team the team context you know Mai Lemon in Philly versus Carnell Tate in
13:24Tennessee. Carell Tate's going to be like ready to go right away. Mai Lemon's probably not. Um, so their target shares are going to be quite different in week
13:32one projections, but we kind of use that like draft pedigree as like a as a baseline starting point and then tweak
13:39stuff from there based off of the team context and stuff like that.
13:43>> Fun. Okay. So, rookie stuff, like how much do you Gosh, like how much do you kind of
13:52implore what like I say about rookies or what Joe says about, you know what I mean? How much do you do you take that
13:58into context? So like for example, a guy I was like lower on than everybody this year was maybe Mai Lemon. Like is there
14:05any input there or do you just like the situation enough that it doesn't matter?
14:09Um you know film takes. How much do you put film takes into the rookie stuff?
14:13>> I think a pretty good bit. I mean I I'm not a film expert by any means. I don't trust my evaluation of rookies over over
14:21guys like you and Joe. Like I definitely highly value you Joe. There's other, you know, there's other people in the industry that grade rookies and stuff
14:28like that that I think are really good at it. Yeah, I heavily value that going when doing projections. Um, especially early in the season. Uh, it doesn't mean
14:37that we don't change things. You know, >> you know, we're, you know, nobody's going to be perfect. So, there's going to be guys that you may not have been
14:43high on that end up showing out really good and we're, you know, and I'll adjust to that. But early in the season
14:48for sure heavily weigh you know people other than myself's opinion on like how rookie how how good they think rookies are and stuff like that.
14:56>> Cool. Well, we're going to transition, but I just want to say like it's really cool that you have you've built this
15:01model that's so dialed in, but then we have these manual tweaks you're performing based on a variety of outputs and it's like it's obviously working for
15:08us. We have the the number one projections in the industry by accuracy and uh congrats to you for for that Chris. Um, all right. We wanted to do
15:16the show because ultimately it was your idea, Chris. You had a bunch of burning questions. Some of them X's and O's
15:21related, some of them more teamsp specific related u that you think will impact projections on some level. So, we're just going to get into those. I'm
15:29going to steer the ship a little bit. I want to start right off the top with Joe. Chris wanted to ask you about the
15:35prediction for snapshare leaders among the Bills in week one and week 17 among DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir, uh Josh Palmer, Keon Coleman, Shavers,
15:45Concade, Knoxhaws. How do you think this whole thing plays out? Because they've been a little bit frustrating where you have a really dynamic player in Khalil
15:52Shakir who has been kind of a part-time player. You got a really dynamic player in Daltton Concaid who's been a part-time player. Where are we at? How
15:59does this break out? I think Chris is dying to know this. Yeah, it's it's a good place to start the conversation
16:05because you expect the Bills offense to be really really good and score a lot of points, but you're not really sure how
16:09to factor in the distribution to these pass catchers. The one thing I can say is that I think there is going to be a
16:16very clear top three. DJ Moore, Khil Shakir, and Dalton Concincaid. I spent last week around the team. Those are the top three guys for this offense. And I
16:27think DJ Moore, while I don't think he's going to be like this 150 target guy, I think he's in that 110 to 120 range as
16:36the go-to player for this offense, the chemistry with Josh Allen feels really good. And I also feel like both guys are
16:43at a point in their career where maybe there's an emphasis for both guys to get back on top of production. I
16:50mean, DJ Morris coming off his least productive season and he's averaged over a thousand yards across his eight years in the league. Josh Allen hadn't thrown
16:57for 4,000 yards in two seasons. These guys are from the same draft class, right? I think they're going to want to
17:01put up some numbers this year. So, the vibes piece there feels like I'm buying in on DJ Moore getting a lot of volume.
17:07Uh I know that's going to make Scott Barrett very upset, but you know, look, I I had him on the Dalton Concade thing
17:13last year. I know the efficiency was on my side, so I feel good about it. Um then I think just right below more is
17:20going to be Shakir and and Concincaid kind of coming in flirting with a hundred targets maybe you know give or take 10 on either side but those are
17:27going to be the primary players that Josh Allen throws the ball to from there it's very difficult. Um I think Keon
17:35Coleman when they're in 11 personnel is going to be the primary third player.
17:39And obviously there's going to be times where it will be Josh Palmer or maybe they want more of a speed element and
17:45they have uh Skyler Bell or Micole Hardman who I think has a good chance to make this roster. But I think that
17:52primary player Yeah. Yeah. I know they need a punt return. It's not for me.
17:56It's not for me. I'm going to be nervous every time he's on the on the field because I don't trust him. But um I
18:02think he's got a little bit of an edge right now. But I I think for Keon Coleman, I don't think there's going to
18:07ton be a ton of volume. I would guess somewhere around 50 50 targets. But the Bills are very much a validation team,
18:16right? They they trade for Stfane Diggs.
18:19He leads the league in receiving year one and has like a million targets. They pay James Cook. All of a sudden, James
18:24Cook has a careerhigh in uh touches by far, like a massive jump in touches last season after he gets a contract. And so,
18:33um, there's been a lot for the Bills in trying to validate Keon Coleman. And I don't think he'll live up to being that
18:4033rd pick, the first big investment post Digs trade. I don't think the volume will ever be there to for that to all
18:46make sense. But, I mean, you listen to Joe Brady multiple times this off seasonason say the best thing that happened for Keon Coleman's career was
18:54me becoming the head coach. Like, he said it double down, triple down. And so Josh Allen's also kind of put his stamp
19:01on it by being one of the catalysts behind the drafting of Keon Coleman.
19:05There's a there's a reason this guy had such a high snapshare immediately in his career despite really never earning it and never really validating it but
19:13continuing to get it. So in that conversation of who's the other guy on the field for 11 personnel, I think you
19:19got to take Keon Coleman very seriously.
19:22>> Dang. Okay. Yeah. Go ahead, Chris. Yeah, that's uh that's good to know because I I've been flipping basically back and
19:28forth between Palmer Palmer and Coleman as that third guy. I I did have exactly what you said, DJ Moore, Shakir, Concaid
19:34as the top three. Um and then yeah, and then Palmer and Coleman are the guys I'm kind of flipping back and forth between.
19:41I feel like the beat reporters and stuff have been talking of Palmer a good bit and him getting usage, but you're right
19:47that Brady keeps, you know, he loves it sounds like he loves Keon Coleman, so I haven't known what to do with that. I'm
19:54currently a Palmer leading, but now you now now you're convincing me to to flip that back.
19:58>> I think it's close. And Palmer's the hotter name right now because I think his last few practices have been uh
20:04better. So, you start to feel that momentum, but I don't know. I He's injured all the time. I like the skill
20:11set more, but Coleman I just feel like they're going to give him every opportunity. I'm not sure there's a huge difference in amount of targets that
20:19they get or snaps that they get. I think it's probably pretty close. But >> yeah, >> edge for me is Coleman.
20:24>> Joe, you got to talk James Cook a little bit because there's been a lot of buzz and like a a real drum beat for him
20:30getting more pass down work. It's something we haven't seen a ton of. He had over 300 carries last year, but was
20:35relatively uninvolved in the pass game.
20:37Where do you see that going?
20:39>> I think James Cook probably has for sure his first 50 catch season in the NFL. Um there's all of the writing is on the
20:47wall for James Cook's involvement in the passing game to ramp up. Um I mean Joe Brady calls himself a Shawn Peyton disciple.
20:58>> You know Pete Carmichael is the definition of Shawn Peyton's disciple, right? He's the the non-play calling offensive coordinator.
21:04>> Yeah.
21:05>> They they throw the ball to backs, right? I mean that's been characteristic of those offenses through the years.
21:09Darren Sprouls, Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara. Uh, it's it's what they do. And I think as they try to maybe get a
21:17little bit more easy button opportunities for Josh Allen, whether it's the screen game that maybe tilts more to running backs with obviously
21:24James Cook having a role there or just more opportunities to stress defenses. I think that's what's exciting to me about what the Bills have with their offensive
21:32personnel. No, they don't have Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase, but they have a lot of players that present challenges that you can dictate terms with. I mean,
21:39if you're in if you're in 12 personnel, one of those tight ends can be Dalton Concade and James Cook as your back. And
21:45if you're going to get heavy personnel on the field from the defense, you should be able to flex guys out and and
21:51really maximize that versatility and and get matchups that you like. And I I hope that's where this offense starts to trend. And I I feel like maybe James
22:00Cook doesn't have the amount of carries he had last year, but maybe that's offset in the passing game. It was a
22:06huge part of what they worked on uh during training camp. And you know, that's what James Cook was drafted to be
22:10a passcatching back. And the one thing he hasn't been is a passcatching back.
22:13And to his credit, he's evolved so much as a runner, become very good.
22:17>> Uh but I think that piece is is there to be taken. And I I think James Cook gets a lot more volume in the passing game
22:22this year.
22:23>> Well, when you have the tight ends you that the Bills have with those three, it's Yeah. The reason you carry that is
22:29to force mismatches in the pass game.
22:32Like that's the whole reason you do it.
22:33So, I'd love to see him. Chris, if if James Cook, >> let's just say Joe's right and he gets 50 catches this year for the first time
22:40in his career, what does that do for his f like where would that put him fantasywise? Is he RB three or four?
22:48>> Yeah. So, I uh I So, all my projections assured 15 game ceiling for guys just to account for some injury wonkiness that
22:57might happen. So, with the 15 games that Cook I have, he's at 42 targets and then I have him with about three targets per
23:04game. So, that's just about the 50 target number that Joe threw out there.
23:08I did just >> Joe's saying 50 catches.
23:10>> Oh, 50 catches.
23:11>> Yeah.
23:12>> Wow. Yeah. Oh, he'd be >> Yeah, he'd be Yeah. So, he's he's RB he just jumped to my RB5 over Han. uh with
23:19the slight bump that I gave him, he would he would probably um he it' still be hard for him to catch
23:28that CMC JT three RB3 and four, I think, but he he'd be the clear fifth guy for sure.
23:36>> Okay. All right. Let's pivot off the Bills. We did get a good question in here I wanted to go back on. Um,
23:44right here. How do you explain Gibbs 2025 season of 368 fantasy points and his projected 2026 of 347? I think you
23:53just inadvertently answered this, >> but isn't he supposed to get more workload with Monty gone? Um, is this simply the 15 game thing or what's going
24:01on here?
24:02>> Yeah, I think that's what it is. Um, I've got him running more routes per game in 2026. Uh, about the same amount
24:10of targets.
24:12Um, let me see his carries. Yeah, I've got him with about four, yeah, four or five more carries than he typically gets per
24:21game. So, yeah, it's just a it's just the game thing. Um, yeah, Gibbs is awesome. He's my highest projected overall player. I think, you know, he'd
24:29be he'd be the 101 for me in in any fantasy draft.
24:32>> Yeah, it's also you're projecting medium outcomes, right? It's not right. Also that not ceiling. So, >> right.
24:38>> Um, here's another great question before we move on.
24:41Uh Carl is GOAT says, "I'm curious what led to Hampton being so low in Chris's projections." I am fascinated to hear
24:48this as well. Yeah, let's go.
24:50Uh, I I might throw this back to you guys a little bit because I've recently just docked Hampton because of the all
24:56the talk that McDaniel's been saying about using Katon Mitchell and Kamani Vidal as like a three-headed back type thing and there's going to be a bit of a
25:03hot hand approach. And then like thinking back to some of the those McDaniel teams pre-chan with Mostert and um who Jeff Wilson and uh I'm forgetting
25:14some of those other random >> Achan's first year it was those two guys. Right. Right. Yeah. So, I was like, maybe maybe this is a real thing.
25:21Maybe I have to account for some three-headed monsterness here.
25:25>> Three-headed monsterness. I love that term.
25:27>> A nightmare for Chris Wack. Three-headed monster in the back field.
25:30>> What could be worse? I want Joe's Hampton take, but for me, when you hear things like Mike McDaniel put up wanted
25:36posters with Katon Mitchell's face on it during free agency, >> that is a little scary if you're a Hampton guy. You know, uh
25:44>> we Katon Mitchell obviously just fits the archetype that that he also had success with in Miami, too, whether it was Moer or Achain, the super fast, you
25:54know, kind of outside zone heavy guys.
25:56But then you hear Omari and Hampton say like they asked him to describe Mike McD McDaniel in one sentence and he said
26:01inside zone. So it's like all right well maybe they are sticking with that inside zone duo heavy offense and Hampton is
26:08the dude. I don't know there's there's a lot there. I also thought there were some current concerning things in Hampton's tape too that didn't get me
26:14like really enthusiastic about him being a like a top fiveish back moving forward. But I'm curious on uh on Joe's take on Hampton.
26:24Well, obviously I think a lot of this conversation is rooted in Mike McDaniel, and I've I've studied him quite a bit.
26:32And one of the interesting things that's been kind of hard about assessing Mike McDaniel is the the early emphasis on getting Tyreek Hill to 2,000 yards
26:41>> and and what that meant for him as a play caller. I think it got goofy, especially at times in the red zone
26:47where and they're throwing fade balls to Tyreek Hill just to get numbers. Like they chase numbers. It was a real thing.
26:53And I think so much of this Hampton Chargers running back fantasy conversation is going to be rooted in uh red zone and touchdowns. And with Mike
27:04McDaniel having Tua as his quarterback, you know, that was very difficult for their short yardage packages, they had a hard time uh just handing the ball off
27:14and getting a yard or, you know, converting. And so, uh, I I wonder about the Justin Herbert element where he's just has way more tools than Tua and
27:23what that means for Mike McDaniel's short yardage packages and his goal line stuff. And do they run him more? Do they
27:29put him in motion more? Um, you know, he's got way more arm talent, right? He can challenge tighter windows. And so,
27:36we we all think about Mo and what he had like 18 rushing touchdowns that one season. He broke the Dolphins record.
27:42It's like, >> RB4 or something in fantasy that year.
27:45Yeah, boy. Maybe like a league winner if you had him. But if if that starts to be more quarterback centric with with Herbert and using his
27:55skill set and you you you don't necessarily get that true guy that they trust in those short yardages. I And plus their interior offensive line is so
28:04goofy to me. It's not a it's not a real mix, right? They have like three centers that are, you know, playing guard and
28:10both guard spots. I mean, I know that they're guards, right? Uh to to win there. I I worry a little bit about that
28:15and I I think a lot of the that short yardage, that touchdown stuff is going to be more on Justin Herbert and the
28:20pass catchers and some of their their bigger they a lot of bigger bodies at tight end and at receiver. So, um I know
28:26that doesn't necessarily address the Hampton, but in a roundabout way, I know that the touchdown layer is going to be important and the precedent is is
28:33interesting to consider and I I'm very fascinated to see what McDaniel does and I think it could be use utilizing Justin
28:39Herbert a lot more in those situations.
28:42>> Nice. All right, let's uh Chris, do you have anything on Hampton after that or No?
28:47>> No. Yeah, it's uh I think I might be a little low on his efficiency. I just made him a little more efficient. He's
28:53my RB16 now. But yeah, I'm definitely low on him. It's just like all the reasons Joe said, if they and God forbid
28:59they they don't give Hampton the goal line work, like then you're really in trouble.
29:05>> Yep. Yep. Yep. All right. Here's a question Chris you had for us that I think is fascinating. What would be too
29:11much 12 or 13 personnel from the Rams?
29:14Could we really see a team play about half their snaps from these heavier personnel across the course of the season? What's really interesting is
29:19like they were at 40% last year, 12 and 13 combined, but 30% of that came from 13. Like that's disgusting. Like do do
29:29they really plan on living in that again?
29:32I They drafted another tight end in the second round, too. I I don't know, Joe.
29:37Where are you at? How much is too much?
29:38Do you start to lose the efficiency bump because you're telling the defense what you're doing? Like it's it becomes a tell rather than a like a disguise if
29:46that makes >> I think that was a benefit to the implementation of it last year where I sort of buy into them being a tight end
29:54heavy again is just where their investments have been, right? They continued to add to this tight end room and I I mean what do they have at
30:02receiver outside of Puka and Dvonte Adams who both feel a little vulnerable to me? Um, and so I think they're they're stockpiling tight ends because
30:10they intend on using them. And I'm buying uh you know those numbers are huge. They're outliers, but I think they continue uh
30:20just based on the roster moves and you know what's in place.
30:25>> Yeah, that's um Chris, how much of the 12 personnel and 13 personnel stuff does it does it like how hard is it to
30:32project that? Because I think we know from uh some studies we've done is like the implied target share in those packages really favor the the receiver
30:40left on the field, right? So it's like and we saw Devonte Adams as the primary 13 personnel ISO receiver. It's like
30:48does he get a bump because of this?
30:51>> Yes. Like I mean both Puka and Devonte they're like they're going to make up over 55% of the target share here
31:00because one of them is going to be on the field >> uh or or max two of them will be on the
31:05field and then yeah so like I'm projecting the Rams to run 1.3 tight end routes per out run in 2026 which and
31:15that no that number is really high like a lot of teams hover around 1.0 maybe slightly below 1.0 you know, um that's
31:22that's so many tight end routes uh for a team. They last across the entire last season they were at 1.21. They closed
31:29out last season at 1.4. Um so I'm assuming they come a little bit back down. Yeah, that was my that's why I
31:36wanted to ask you guys because I was like does it at some point does it like not work as good? Because I I find it
31:42from my thinking about how if I was playing or coaching a football team, I I can't look at the roster and say, you
31:48know, Kobe Parkinson, Tyler Higgby, Davis Allen, Terrence Ferguson running a route is better than the average NFL wide receiver. I think the receivers's
31:56probably better at running the route on average.
32:00>> It depends who the matchup is, though, right? So like if you're putting Ferguson on the field and then you're getting a, you know, a corner on him,
32:06well, you have a big body and a small body. Now, if you put Ferguson on the field, you get a linebacker on a
32:11linebacker on him. Well, you're going to expect Ferguson to win that from a route standpoint. So, I think that's where they see the advantage. But they we also
32:17know McVey likes to run the football, right? They have a two-headed monster now at running back. It's like, could their could their pass rate go down a
32:26little bit with a an old Stafford and an old Devonte Adams and an often injured Pukan Nikkua?
32:32I don't know. Um, let's move on. Another tight end centric question here. If you coached the Raiders, what percentage of snaps would Brock Bowers line up in
32:42line? Is there ever a reason for him to not line up out wide in multiple tight end sets? I would never put him out
32:48wide, frankly. I like in the slot sometimes.
32:53Yeah, I go 5050 slot in line probably.
32:56But the whole the whole point of a Brock Bowers is he he actually does force mismatches. So like if you're going to
33:02line him up in line, how what's your coverage plan? you gonna bring a cornerback into the box now and and defend him that way and just invite
33:10getting ran on on every down or are you going to try to get a big safety on him or a linebacker? I no matter who you
33:16what you commit to Bowers as an inline player, it gives the offense an advantage. The second you put them out wide. We saw this in the Denver game
33:23last year. Uh Chris, I think I famously told you to fade Brock Bowers the week they were playing Denver because Denver
33:30Yeah, they've got great corners. You're going to put them out wide. Sweet. We just won that battle. You just took to
33:34took away all of the element of surprise. You took away all your potential mismatch advantages. Bowers isn't big enough that he's like uh you
33:43know he's going to physically dominate big corners. He's you know what I mean?
33:47So like you want him on linebackers, you want him on big safeties. Um I don't know. Am I crazy, Joe? What do you say?
33:52>> Weaken the skill set. Yeah. Yeah. The skill set's not as interesting as an ex receiver or out wide on the on the
33:59perimeter where he creates mismatches is in line and from the slot. I think you have a steady mix of both. I mean, I'm
34:05I'm more interested in him playing uh as an H at times, right, to you leaning into mismatch opportunities and playing him out wide. I know the
34:14>> the Raiders dep chart, you know, kind of leaves you looking for answers, but I don't think it needs to be Brock Bowers.
34:21>> Uh Chris, do you guys Oh, go ahead. I was going to say, do you guys think that um he him being lined up in line though is a
34:30bit of a tell to the defense that this guy's probably not staying in and blocking on a pass down. If it's a run
34:35play, maybe he's not as good of a blocker as some other tight ends that are a little bit more blocking tight
34:41ends.
34:43>> Yeah, that's tough. I don't I mean I don't know where he's at in his development as a run blocker personally.
34:49I know that they have Michael Mayer who is a really good run blocker. So obviously if you're going to go 12
34:54personnel, you're going to want Mayor as your your point of attack blocker, but I think as far as like backside stuff,
35:00like I think Bowers is probably fine. In fact, you want a more athletic guy on some of those backside cut offs for the
35:05outside zone stuff that Kubak's going to want to run. So um I I don't know that that's actually too too worrisome for
35:11me. I think Bowers is probably fine as a blocker.
35:14>> I'm with you. I I kind of live this a little bit with Dalton Concade and predictability and tells. It's like I
35:18don't know. It's and you can you can mask it a little bit. he can be even if he's a front side blocker. I mean, you
35:25can work fold schemes to get him in better matchups. You know, I I think teams know how to work around that. I
35:31think sometimes we have a a tendency to make that bigger than it needs to be.
35:35>> For sure. I mean, look at like even like Sam Leaport with the Lions struggled as a blocker early on and then last year we
35:41found out they couldn't run the ball without him. Um I I I think these these tight ends that play every down like
35:47they do develop kind of quickly. So, um, how I want to ask you something, Chris, with the current wide receiver room in
35:55in Vegas, how does that impact Bower's projections? Because on one hand, I could be like, well, it's all going to go to him. On the other hand, I'm like,
36:03well, they have one guy to take away.
36:05So, like what what uh what's the give and take there?
36:08>> Yeah, the volume is king. It doesn't it doesn't matter if there's one guy that you the defense knows the ball is. We just
36:17talked about the Rams with Dvonte and Cucka getting 55% of the targets. We're not worried about them. I wouldn't be worried about Brock Bowers. He'll as
36:27long as he keeps getting the ball thrown his way, he's going to catch I mean, if he gets eight targets a game but only
36:32catches four of them because the defense is double covering him or or bracketing him or whatever, that's still going to be better than like most tight ends if
36:40he only catches the ball four times.
36:41>> So volume is king. is this this this sets up for Brock Bowers to be the tight end one this year just with the way the
36:49offense is currently set up.
36:51>> Yeah, it it feels that way. Um before we move on to another one of your questions, Chris, I want to hit one from
36:56the crowd. I'm curious what you all think about Odun with all this Burden hype. I'm a big Odun guy and I think
37:03it'll be closer than fantasy hive mind thinks. This is We've gotten several burden questions already. Someone asked like tell have Chris tell us why who's
37:13right, Scott or Ryan Heath on Luther Burton or something like that. So, um, what do you think on on this? I'm a big
37:18Odunce guy as well. I think he's the most talented receiver they have. U, but I'm very curious where you're at.
37:25>> Yeah, I mean this is I think one of my questions kind of related on this too. I I've been arguing with Scott from day
37:33one that Adun should outtarget Burton this year. And I I just don't see how you can come to any other conclusion
37:39barring something changing, which certainly could happen. I'm not saying that Burton couldn't become the wide receiver one here, but Ro Rome has done
37:47nothing wrong in his career. It hasn't necessarily gone amazing, but there's been no issues with the way the what what his numbers look like. He's got
37:55very solid target shares every year.
37:56He's got over a 23% target per run last year. Like burden or I mean Adun has been good. He just, you know, it just
38:04never fully exploded last year. Uh it it looked like it a little bit to start the season it was going to and it just it
38:10just kind of trailed off a bit.
38:12>> But I don't Yeah, I don't get the Burden hype to the extent that it's at. I get it at some level. Um I think he is going
38:18to be the clear wide receiver too on this team. They don't really have anything behind him. I'm a little curious what you guys think. Like what
38:25do you think the Bears want to play personnel-wise? Do they want to run a lot of heavy stuff? Is there a wide
38:32receiver three on this team that matters that will run more routes than their two tight ends?
38:37>> Well, that's a great question.
38:39>> I don't I think they got to be living in 12. I mean, that's if they're trying to get their best five eligibles on the
38:46field, you won't convince me that two tight ends aren't part of that equation.
38:49And I think they help open things up for Luther Burton who >> I mean I think he showed us a lot last
38:56year, but the is he going to be a dump and run type guy? Is there going to be a lot of
39:01verticality to what he offers? I I think the tight ends help with that equation.
39:06>> Yeah. I I And the investments, you know, something we always talk about, Joe, is like where are they in putting their
39:10their money at? And it's like, well, they have a paid Cole KT. They drafted a tight end in the first round last year
39:15and they drafted one in the second round this year.
39:18I think that tells you all you need to know. They want to play they want to be heavy. They want to they want to
39:22implement that play action pass game. I think one of the best things they could do for Caleb Williams, by the way, is
39:27give him more of that play action stuff where it's like, you know, hey, he wants to live and improvise a little bit in in
39:33kind of this the the shadow realm. I think getting Caleb the ability to to have time on a deep drop off a play
39:40action where the defense isn't immediately triggering a pass rush is probably the best thing you could do for him and and teaching him into play
39:47within rhythm and a little bit more structure, right? And getting those schemed open throws and um so yeah, I think it all kind of makes sense.
39:55Um, I do think Caleb Raymond is interesting though because he comes from obviously he knows Ben Johnson's playbook, knows the scheme, but like you know, is he a
40:06needle mover? No. Like not at all, right? Like he's functional. I think he's more injury insurance. If Burton or Odun got hurt, it's like, oh, we feel
40:14confident because he knows the playbook, but like I don't I don't know that like what is he 30 31 years old? I don't know
40:19that he's going to all of a sudden break out as a wide receiver three. So, um, another one I wanted to get to here.
40:26You asked Chris in the show, "Was there anything Michael Wilson did last year from a usage standpoint that Marvin Harrison Jr. can't do? Do you buy that
40:36Michael Wilson is playing the puka role in the offense?" Joe, I'll have you answer the first part of that question.
40:41The second part I want to get to real quick. This, I know this isn't only you, Chris, saying that the puka role. What
40:48is the freaking puka roll? Is Michael Wilson Puka Nua? Like there wasn't a puka roll until Puka.
40:54>> Michael Wilson himself said it. That's He's the guy that said it.
40:57>> I just This stuff drives me nuts, man.
40:59There was no such thing as a Puka role until Puka Nua. So like do we think Mike Laflur who barely even overlapped with
41:06Puka Nua is all of a sudden creating a Puka role in his offense? Puka is playing a combination of like if you
41:12want to go historical Shawn McVey roles.
41:15It's like a combo of Robert Woods. It's mostly Robert Woods actually with some Cooper Cup stuff sprinkled in. So like I
41:21I don't I don't even know what the puka role is. It's it was invented for a guy that is there's only one of. So I don't
41:26know. I I feel like we get way over our skis with some of this stuff. It's like I think Michael Wilson might just play
41:30the Michael Wilson role.
41:32>> I Yeah, I think it should be a pretty hybrid role where you want to use him as a big slot at times and you know
41:38certainly a guy that has the ability to to win outside. Um, but if you had to tell me that there was a a receiver in
41:45this offense that's most likely to try to replicate some of that, it's certainly him >> for sure.
41:50>> Um, but I think we're all hoping for some growth from Marvin Harrison. And I I think the if that happens, I think
41:57Michael Wilson's the guy that suffers from it because I I know Trey McBride's going to get his, but if if Marvin
42:04Harrison does the thing, then I think that hurts Michael Wilson.
42:08>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, how much of Marvin Harrison Jr's struggles have been environment related too?
42:15>> Like sure Kyler Murray driven or usage driven like you know Ping did have him like a lot of it was boundary type stuff
42:25>> just living out on the boundary and then when he did run deep crossers it's like well Kyler's not throwing those those
42:30balls so I don't know how how do you see this playing out Chris? That's kind of what I want to know.
42:36Yeah, this question was a little bit of a setup because I knew you would get triggered by the pukar roll thing and
42:41and I I fully agree with you. I I know I know roles and stuff are mostly nonsense. I don't I'm not buying that
42:48Michael Wilson is filling some role that matches what Puka did in that offense. I think Marvin Harrison is, you know, is
42:56and was one of the most talented wide receivers coming out of college and, you know, he's had a horrible environment and like if we're going to if we're
43:05going to penalize him for the environment, you should probably be penalizing Michael Wilson, too. So, I'm just going to go with the guy that I
43:10think is just overall the better player then.
43:13>> Yeah, I I think that's probably fair.
43:15Um, we got some funny comments in here.
43:17Someone said, "Roome was the wide receiver 41 in his recruiting class.
43:20Burden was wide receiver one." brother, do you know how long ago that was? Like, do you re, no offense, all due respect,
43:27but do you realize that like Rome was a top 10 pick in the NFL and Luther Burton didn't go until the second round? Like,
43:33I mean, we can't use high school recruiting numbers to make takes. I'm sorry.
43:37>> Like, Chris, do you take their high school recruiting status anymore? I didn't I had no idea about that. So, no.
43:45>> Right.
43:46>> All right. Let's uh let's move on to another one. Um, I wanted to hit the R.J. Harvey question. Where does RJ
43:51Harvey fit on the Broncos if all other backs are healthy? What situations, personnel does he use most in? Passing downs, two men, fourman, goal line, etc.
44:00Well, it seems like we saw him succeed a lot as a pass down back last year. I felt like he did struggle as a runner.
44:06Um, Joe, do we have different takes on Harvey? I forget.
44:10>> Yes, very different.
44:11>> Okay, go ahead.
44:13>> Well, all right. Well, let's let's do this. I'm I'm not big on RJ Harvey as a running back. Um, I I watched him at UCF
44:20and I saw a guy that his main emphasis was that he wants to out aathlete everybody and spill and ignore creases
44:29and just try to win foot races. And I just don't think that works in the NFL as a runner. Does it work as a receiver?
44:34I think it's a lot more translatable.
44:35And I think that's why you saw some of his best moments come in a receiving role. And so I I worry that he's headed
44:43for that type of of type of a role, especially they they drafted, who's the running back? Is it Jonah Coleman?
44:48>> Jonah Coleman. Yeah.
44:50>> Who profiles as, hey, the the anti um what I just described as a guy that you could trust to find space between the
44:58tackles and pound the rock. And so I know that Shawn Peyton can be frustrating with running backs. I think he will be. I think there's a place for
45:05all three of these guys to have a role.
45:07But >> I'm not expecting a a ton of >> just traditional handoffs for RJ Harvey.
45:12I think he's just too underdeveloped there.
45:14>> Yeah, it was. Was that your take of him coming out?
45:18>> Yeah.
45:18>> Okay. Yeah, I I definitely agreed the vision was spotty coming out. It was really bad as a rookie though. Like I
45:24was a huge RJ Harvey guy. The explosive run potential I thought was off the charts, but then I thought the vision,
45:31the feet just all kind of went to crap last year. That doesn't mean he can't develop, but running back is typically a
45:36position where guys come ready made.
45:37It's like what you see in college is usually what you get minus a few little tweaks to their game. So, I'm definitely
45:43nervous about R.J. Harvey, Chris. I And Shawn Payeyton's just killed us for years at this position. I I don't envy your job having to project these guys.
45:52So, I'll just say good luck.
45:55>> What do you think?
45:56That's I mean that's my been my struggle with this is like what what what do the coaches want to do with this
46:03running back room? Where do they want to use why do they have these guys on the team and where do they think they fit
46:08when they're game planning? And I just have no I I think Dobbins is that early down grinder, but he's already banged up
46:15so like they can't trust him. Um and then it's like between Harvey and Coleman, what do they want to do with
46:20these guys? Because Coleman, like Joe said, is more of that dependable. he's gonna do he's gonna get you what you need kind of guy. Maybe not the most
46:27explosive. Um and he you know so he's kind of similar to Davis to me in that way. And then Harvey's like the
46:33explosive guy, but I was like where like where did okay I've got this explosive back but where does that fit on the
46:38football? When does he come in into the game? When does like when does that how do you know when to put that into the
46:43game and try to utilize it is where I'm struggling.
46:46>> Yeah, there's some wild cards too. You mentioned Dobbin's health, but like also Jonah Coleman is actually a really good receiver for his size. Like really good
46:56hands. In fact, I thought some of his receiving work was more impressive than his running work coming out as a prospect. Pretty good in pass pro, too.
47:04So, it's like, oh, it's scary. It's It's really scary. There's a lot to consider here. And, uh, yeah, good luck. Well,
47:11Jonah Coleman's one of the most unique football players I've ever watched and that he's 5'8, 220 pounds, but >> I mean, he doesn't really run behind his
47:18pads. I mean, this guy's got a really dense build. Like, he could pack a punch, you would think, with just the
47:23way he's slapped together.
47:25>> And there's more of a finesse style to his game. And so, I think that puts JK Dobbins in a good spot to be the lead
47:31ball carrier. And then, I think you're looking to supplement him with the explosive nature in the passing game that I think RJ can give you. and as
47:40maybe a perimeter type threat if you want to push, you know, push the edges a little bit more in your run schemes.
47:45But, you know, Jo Jonah Coleman, I I mean, I kind of have issues with him as well. They're they're they're not
47:50drafting my favorite backs in Denver.
47:51I'll say that. And I think they need JK Dobbins to to be healthy and command a decent amount of this workload. Um
47:57because I think those other guys are just really incomplete skill sets.
48:01>> Uh while we're talking Broncos, we got a a really great question here. And I think this is one of Chris's and I Chris
48:06and I's biggest disagreements of the offseason. While we're on the topic of the Broncos, I'm curious how Chris got to his waddle projection. I would expect
48:13him to project better than where Chris has him. I've agree with this take. I just don't want to live in the business
48:21of arguing with Chris because he's right way too much. So, Chris, explain your waddle take uh and and why you projecting him the way you are because I
48:27think Scott and I both are a little bit more bullish on him than you are, but we've deferred to you on this one.
48:35I don't I don't know why I became this Wadd hater because I really like Wadd. I I think he's gonna have a great season.
48:42Uh I don't I don't really get where this came from. I just I think what it is is I don't know why everyone's so out on
48:47Courtland Sutton. I I don't like I still view Sutton as the wide receiver one on this teams in terms of like snaps and
48:54routes. Um and I do have Wadd out targeting him, but I I don't know. Like I I just think Sutton's still a good
49:02wide receiver. I think Wadd will be more efficient. I think he'll earn more targets. Um, but at the end of the day,
49:09I think Sutton's just still going to be a big part of the offense.
49:12>> Well, the the fun part about Denver is I mean, Bon Knicks led the NFL in passing attempts last year with 610. You got you
49:19got a lot to to spread around here and I think a lot of guys can matter here. And you know, certainly I think Troy
49:25Franklin and Marvin Mims probably are they suffer because of Jaylen Wadd's arrival, but I think there's a lot of room there's probably the most room for
49:37a lot of guys to be relevant and I mean they just gave their their first round pick for for Jaylen Waddle and there's a
49:43big commitment there and um that's been a Shawn Peyton role. He's always got that Deb Henderson type player. Um, and I I think
49:53the the offseason was so weird for Denver where we're just waiting for them to do something. It's quiet. It's quiet.
49:57It's like, you were the number one seed.
49:58Do something. And then you're like, "Oh, there it is. They they went with the big fish." And so, I think we can be open to
50:03a lot of guys being successful in this this Denver passing offense.
50:07>> Yeah. And I don't want to go on the same rant I've gone on like the last four uh shows here on the Fantasy Points YouTube
50:13channel, but Waddle was so miscast in Miami as an ex receiver. And I don't think most people realize that where he
50:20I mean like 75% of his routes run were from the X position at his with his size and explosiveness and I would say lack
50:27of physicality that's just not an ideal match where now in Denver he's going to get to play a role that much better
50:33suits his game and his skill set. So um I'm I'm pretty excited. We've also seen like Shawn Peyton have success with
50:39these types of guys for ever. So um you know I think of like Brandon Cooks in his time with the Saints. I think Waddle
50:46could have, you know, a juiced up version of that role and I think that would be really exciting. So, um, I
50:52wanted to, the nerd in me can't ignore this because I, it's such a topic I've been kind of hitting really hard on a
50:58lot of my shows. The X role has been demonized as the sacrificial X, so therefore the Z as the other wide
51:03receiver on the field in two wide receiver stats is being glorified. This is so spot-on. I don't know where we got
51:08like um, we got sidetracked with the idea that the X is somehow bad in an offense.
51:14What what is this from, Chris?
51:15>> It's MVS. It's It's MVS with the Chiefs, I feel like.
51:20>> Yeah, it's it's so weird because you like you can look at the splits.
51:24>> All of the best receivers in the league for the most part, minus a couple, still play primary exceiver >> and it might be 51% of the time, but
51:32it's still that's their primary job.
51:34Whether it's Jamar Chase, Aman Ross St.
51:36Brown even who gets labeled as a slot receiver. He plays a ton of X, Nico Collins, AJ Brown, George Pick, they're
51:42all primary ex receivers. So, I don't know where we got lost in this fact that like somehow if you have the exceiver
51:48role in the offense, that's bad for you.
51:50It depends on the skill set, right? Like I would never ask Jameson Williams to play x- receiver on 70% of his snaps and
51:55he doesn't. But like for the most part, the best receivers in the league play X.
52:01Uh, and I'll tie that back to the projections. Do you consider that at all, Chris, or is that not even part of
52:06the equation? Because it doesn't need to be.
52:08>> Uh, yeah, it doesn't really need to be.
52:10I mean, it's more about like like just where the team's going to fit guys on the field, like who who can
52:16realistically all be on the field together type stuff. So, like you're not going to have all slot receivers on the field at the same time. So, somebody's
52:24got to play, you know, an X-T type role.
52:28Well, if defenses truly start to evolve a little bit too and you get more heavy boxes, more one high stuff, I think some
52:36of these guys that are labeled sacrificial X's just might produce a little more because the matchups will be better.
52:43>> Yeah. Uh here's a good one uh from Chris. Is there an or a running back on the Vikings roster that you're
52:49interested in becoming a bellcow in 2026? Do any of them have a shot at doing it? Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, Deont Clarebornne, Claybornne. Um, Joe,
52:59what say you?
53:01>> Uh, I I went pretty Somebody released Aaron Jones in my league and I went pretty hard on picking him up with some
53:07free agent dollars because I feel like he's got a chance to, at least for this year, get a ton of volume. But, I mean,
53:13I think what Minnesota did this offseason at running back tells me two things. uh number one that they believe that Aaron Jones can be that dude and he
53:22finished the season really really strong and they probably really like Jordan Mason. I mean that's got to be what the biggest tell is that they're comfortable
53:31with him if he's going to have to step in for an aging Aaron Jones. And so it's uh it might be a sneaky good backfield
53:39to kind of pluck someone from to get some production because there's not a whole lot of threats there. They must like Jones and Mason. Yeah, the lack of
53:47additions is kind of crazy considering like Mason is somewhat limited. He's definitely effective in a certain role, but he's somewhat limited. And then
53:54Jones is just Jones can't stay healthy.
53:58You know, that's been a big issue. I I don't really know what you do with this backfield that like some of the buzz so
54:03far, Chris, has been what? Jordan Mason is going to have a bigger role this year. Have you seen that?
54:07>> Yeah, but See, I think they hate Jordan Mason. I love that Joe likes Aaron Jones because that's who I've been saying
54:13Aaron Jones I think is like a decent pick. You know, he's, you know, he's not going to be the RB1 on the season or any
54:19chance at that, but I think I think they want to have a main guy. I think they want it to be Aaron Jones. They when
54:27Aaron Jones was banged up to close out the year last year, they he missed a few games. Jordan Mason was getting like 70
54:3380% of the carries. Did nothing with it.
54:35Jones comes back but is still banged up and he immediately outouched uh Jordan Mason. They didn't have to do that. They
54:42weren't competing for a playoff spot or anything like that. Yeah.
54:45>> Like that. I think >> I don't think that maybe I shouldn't say I think they hate Jordan Mason, but like
54:50I think they like Aaron Jones more than Jordan Mason a good bit.
54:55>> Yeah. And do you guys buy into like aesthetic at all? Like when I watch Jordan Mason run, it like hurts to watch
55:03like my >> call him a plotter. Is that what you're saying?
55:06>> A a big-time plotter who just takes so much unnecessary contact. I don't understand why he continues to do this.
55:14I just it really it's he's a really hard running back to watch. Where Aaron Jones on the other hand is is not very smooth,
55:21explosive, dynamic. There's a lot of dynamic to the way he runs. I Yeah. So, I go Aaron Jones just purely based on like visual
55:29aesthetic watching them run the football. How about that?
55:33All right. Let's hit a let's hit a Jets question. Uh Chris wants to know about the three-headed quote unquote three-headed running back machine they
55:41have going there. We heard a lot about it going into last year, but then there was injuries to Brillin Allen into
55:45Isaiah Davis that kind of repropelled Bree Hall back into this Bellcal role.
55:50Then they had some weird negotiation issues. He said he wouldn't play on a franchise tag and then they resigned him and Bree Hall agreed to stay there. Must
55:58have grown to like my guy AG. However, how do you think this is going to shake out, Joe? Do you think they're they're
56:04this is a division rival for you. What do you think they're going to do? Breeze Hall, Bellcow, or is there going to be
56:08some uh some snipers going on with those other running backs?
56:12>> A healthy Brilan Allen is at least interesting to me, but we saw Isaiah Davis pretty much healthy all season long and he had 43 rushes and Bree Hall
56:23had 200 more than that. So, I think the only chance of Bree Hall losing workload is is through Brilan Allen, who had some
56:32appeal, but he's a very stylistically different player, like a big physical downhill runner, where Bree Hall gives them a lot more speed to the edge, a lot
56:40more of a of a pass catching profile.
56:42The good news is I like their offensive line, and I think that will help, you know, whoever's touching the ball the
56:48most to to get a lot of a lot of volume, and they certainly upgraded their pass catchers, and they've upgraded their
56:53quarterback. So maybe there's a if you played the Jets last year, all right, we dare you to beat us throwing the
56:59football. You can't do it. Um, but again, the only only threat to Bree Hall this year is is Brillin Adams and and I
57:06don't I don't think it's that significant.
57:09>> Do you guys think that uh was there any games last year that Isaiah Davis ran more routes than Bruce Hall in?
57:17>> Is this a pop quiz? Are you quizzing us?
57:19>> Yeah. Yeah.
57:21Based on just the fact that you asked the question, I'm gonna have to say yes, >> right? It happened. It happened four
57:27times last year and Isaiah Davis missed like three or four other games.
57:32>> Wow.
57:32>> So, like it it's a little weird that that hasn't last year that was all the talk was that that that you know AG
57:38wanted all three guys involved, whatever. And I feel like this year nobody's really talking about that at all.
57:44>> Well, they paid Bree Hall the money >> that says that you get the work.
57:50Typically, historically, that's what that says.
57:52>> What's the What's the big appeal with Isaiah Davis?
57:54>> I I don't know. I don't know why they did last year. They did it.
57:59>> So is Bree. So, I don't know.
58:01>> There's a very limited ceiling on that.
58:02I mean, >> could I say that like I think LA going into last year, we were still unsure of Bree's health. He looked bad the year
58:09before, right? Even though the production was was fine. Uh you know, he's what now two years removed from the ACL. And I think last year he assuaged
58:17all my concerns with the ACL. I think I thought he looked really good. So, >> assuaged. What a word, man.
58:23>> Unbelievable.
58:23>> I dug deep for that one. Especially on the fly. I was so scared I was going to butcher that, man. That was
58:30>> But uh uh for those that don't listen to First Reed, this is the constant banter you get, you know. Um earlier in the
58:37show, Joe Derek Brown asked if we could get the Quinn Sean Junkkins projection.
58:43That's a dig at you because you always mispronounce his name.
58:46>> What do I say? You say junk. Junkins.
58:49>> I don't I don't put a D. I say Junkkins.
58:50Yeah, I do. That's I'm guilty on that.
58:52It is. There is a D there. Judkins.
58:54>> It's Judkins.
58:54>> All right. Hey, it wouldn't be It wouldn't be me doing a podcast without, you know, getting arrested by the pronunciation police. So, I'm glad I can
59:01check that box today.
59:02>> Yeah. Uh Chris, let me ask you this about Bree Hall. If he does get like a Bellcow role with, I would say a higher
59:09floor of an offense with, you know, we don't love Gino Smith, but he does elevate the floor over what they had
59:14last year. They have a good pass catching unit with, you know, three or four, five deep now even. What um what
59:22can we expect as fantasy players for Bree Hall this year?
59:25>> Uh so he's RB RB12 right now with where I currently have him. I think I'm I'm definitely leaning towards the Bellcow
59:33thing. That was just something I noticed looking through my projections the other day. I was like, "Yeah, we I I remember
59:38thinking a lot about that three-headed backfield last year, and I haven't really considered it this year." Uh, he probably could jump to like RB
59:47maybe RB9 right ahead of Kenneth Walker, Dererick Henry, Chase Brown if like he got all of the work and the Jets
59:53offense, you know, was decent enough with Gina Smith.
59:57>> Here, here's a fun one with the Jets, too, and then we'll try to wrap this up, but Isaiah Williams is still running
60:02with the first team offense in camp at slot over Omar Cooper Jr.
60:08How what's going on there? How do you feel about that? When where are you projecting Omar Cooper Jr. Apparently, >> uh, I have him at the clear wide
60:16receiver. Well, I should say shouldn't say clear. I have him and AD Mitchell as like clear wide receiver two and three.
60:22I'm not I'm not buying the Isaiah Williams thing. I mean, me, you know, we see this all the time, right? Coaches
60:28make make rookies earn certain spots.
60:31>> I mean, if there was a coach in the NFL I had to bet did that, AG might be the first guy, not the second guy on that
60:36list. So, >> so yeah, we'll we'll see when we get to week one if that changes, but Mason Taylor also still running ahead of
60:44Kenyon Sadi. It definitely >> banged up right now, right?
60:47>> Sadi. Yeah, Sadique is still banged up.
60:48That's true. And Taylor, I guess Taylor looks awesome. But Taylor was also a top 40 draft pick. So, not sure why you had
60:54to proceed to draft the tight end in the first round.
60:57>> That's neither here nor there, though.
60:59Uh, we're going to get out of here.
61:00Chris, this was awesome. Um, for those that don't know, Chris, uh, he's been our projections guy for like two years now. This will be year three, right,
61:08Chris?
61:09Yep. And you can get his projections I think with it's just the fantasy basic package, right?
61:14>> Uh the season long ones. Yes. I think you the inseason I think you uh if you want the Yeah. If you want the more like
61:21DFS style projections, you got to go up a tier.
61:25>> Yeah. So, so go check out fantasypoints.com, a brand new website.
61:29Get the I just say go ahead and get the full gambit, you know, the fantasy pro, the data suite, the betting pack,
61:34everything. Just get it all and you'll get Chris's projections and you will win your fantasy leagues and score more. Uh Joe, thank you for doing the live with
61:43me today. I really appreciate it. And remember folks, no matter what develops, we will always be your first read.
61:49Thanks for listening. We are out.
