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The Best Week 5 Fantasy Football Trades to Make RIGHT NOW: Buy or Sell?

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 24 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 7, 2026
Published
Wed, October 7, 2026
22
Player insights
21
Players mentioned
Topics
Puka NacuaAaron JonesAmon-Ra St. BrownChase BrownChris RodriguezD.J. MooreGarrett WilsonJa'Marr ChaseJordan AddisonJustin JeffersonKeaton MitchellLadd McConkeyLamar JacksonMatthew Golden
Player analysis

Player insights

22

Aaron Jones

NegativeBust49:11

Sell recommendation despite fringe RB1 status this week. Jordan Mason returns in week seven, which will significantly reduce Jones' snap share and role. At 31 years old, Jones shows visible signs of physical decline (grimaces after tackles, struggles to get off the ground, five forced missed tackles on the season). The source characterizes the Packers offense as inefficient, making Jones' age and durability concerns more pronounced.

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeInjury16:00

Dealing with an ankle sprain that is affecting his efficiency. He stated: "Yeah, you know, I'm working my way back to 100%. Hopefully shouldn't be too much longer." The injury may explain efficiency differential concerns and suggests he is not yet at full health.

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Chase Brown

PositiveValue19:06

Buy-low candidate on the source's list for three out of five shows. Plays with Joe Burrow, a check-down-heavy quarterback, which drives target volume. Had 11 catches last week (insanely rare). Behind only Bejian Robinson, Jamir Gibbs, and Ashton Genty in non-red-zone XFP per game (up 2.5 points from last year), but only 30th in red-zone XFP per game (down from top-12 last year). Historical pattern: struggled first half of rookie season when Zack Moss got hurt, then averaged more fantasy points per game than Bejian Robinson in second half; same pattern last year. Bengals offense hasn't found footing yet, but volume should remain high with T. Higgins out and Jamar Chase potentially missing. High-floor, high-end RB2 with untapped upside and safety.

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Chris Rodriguez

NegativeBust23:43

Chris Rodriguez is underperforming relative to Bashel Tutin in both efficiency and role security. The source notes he "just hasn't been anywhere near as good as Tuton or as dynamic." A key thesis for Rodriguez was that he would secure all goal-line opportunities, but that has not materialized. Despite matching Tutin's rushing touchdown total through the season, Rodriguez lacks the dynamic playmaking and role security that makes Tutin attractive. The source cites statistical analysis and tape review, noting that a 25-yard TD run is an outlier play that doesn't reflect his overall performance profile or dynamism relative to peers.

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D.J. Moore

NegativeInjury39:24

DJ Moore's health is a concern, with the source downgrading from hot to meh due to recurring injury issues. Expected to be out until week eight, but the acquisition price is strong. The source recommends waiting it out rather than acquiring him now; he projects as scalding hot in weeks eight and beyond once healthy.

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Garrett Wilson

PositiveValue7:13

Garrett Wilson is a buy-low candidate after an outlier low-volume game (17 routes vs. 53 for Dante Meyers due to Jets game script). He ranks top 12 in yards per route run vs. man coverage and top 12 in separation and contested catch metrics. Ideal matchup vs. Browns who play man 52% of the time (no other team over 38%). Even if Adonai Mitchell returns, he may be limited, making this an excellent spot to acquire Wilson.

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Ja'Marr Chase

PositiveValue35:33

Jamar Chase is positioned as a top trade target for 4-0 or 3-1 teams looking to acquire star players from desperate 1-3 teams; the source uses a chess analogy—removing the opponent's 'queen' from the board—to describe acquiring Chase as a way to optimize a dominant fantasy position and improve endgame chances. Chase is a buy candidate despite a slow 15.1 fantasy points per game start; he just needs to clear concussion protocol and should play this week. If Tee Higgins remains out over the next two weeks, Chase is expected to go nuclear based on historical production when Higgins is unavailable.

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Jordan Addison

NegativeBust50:04

Sell recommendation; the Vikings offense is underperforming, and Justin Jefferson's return will reclaim target share from Addison. T.J. Hawkinson has emerged as Kyler Murray's favorite target, further diminishing Addison's role. The source characterizes Addison as "dead" in fantasy value, with the only reason to own him being contingent upside as a handcuff if Jefferson suffers injury.

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Justin Jefferson

NegativeProjection38:07

Justin Jefferson is ice cold despite ranking top five in fantasy points per route run and XFP per route run. The Vikings offense is among the worst in football and likely to worsen; volume is king, and while Jefferson's target share was high before injury, he is not the same player he was previously. Recent performance shows only five catches over his last two games played, and he struggles with contested catches—Keshan Nixon put him in a phone booth in week one. The source's concern is that elite efficiency metrics do not translate to fantasy production without sufficient opportunity.

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Keaton Mitchell

PositiveValue12:00

Trade offer of Katon Mitchell for Michael Wilson is absurd and significantly undervalues Michael Wilson's elite target volume and wide receiver one role.

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Ladd McConkey

PositiveRole41:12

Ladd McConkey is a cold take despite the Chargers' offensive struggles (Mike McDaniel, Justin Herbert, and offensive line all underperforming). What stands out is McConkey's role, which mirrors Tyreek Hill's production profile—a high-volume, explosive weapon in the offense.

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Lamar Jackson

NegativeProjection3:40

Lamar Jackson is a fade despite the ankle injury creating a buy-low narrative. The source's concern stems from last year's experience: Jackson returned from injury as a shell of himself, stopped running, and was played as a pocket passer—a role he struggles in. He ranked poorly in completion percentage over expectation and fantasy points per game, turning into Aaron Rodgers by every metric. Those who bought low on Jackson last year saw their stock go to zero, and the same risk applies here with the current ankle injury.

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Matthew Golden

PositiveValue25:08

Matthew Golden is identified as a buy-low candidate in trade discussions. The source expresses preference for Golden over several mid-tier receivers and notes he should have been explicitly listed as a buy-low target, indicating undervaluation in the current market.

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Matthew Stafford

PositiveProjection10:22

Arm strength appears to be declining; the source noted his performance looked like Case Keenum in one recent game and raised concerns about potential retirement, which would significantly impact Puka Nakua's fantasy value as his primary target.

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Michael Wilson

PositiveValue7:13

Buy-low candidate despite 30 targets over the last two weeks; ranks second in targets per game and air yards per game over his last 12 games, making him a high-end wide receiver one by production. However, he's currently priced as a mid-range WR2 in most leagues. He's WR7 by expected fantasy points per game but only WR20 by actual fantasy points per game, with zero touchdowns on four end zone targets—a regression opportunity. He faces the Detroit Lions, the worst defense in football. Should be valued as a low-end wide receiver one in reddraft; has generated 30 targets in two weeks and is averaging double-digit targets per game, establishing elite target volume that warrants mid-round wide receiver one valuation.

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Mike Evans

PositiveProjection41:26

The source goes hot on Mike Evans despite health concerns, citing his ceiling as elite. Evans leads all wide receivers in third-down target share at 45% while the 49ers have the best third-down offense in fantasy points data history, but receives only 13% target share on other downs, suggesting potential load management. If he gets a healthy stretch, he will break stuff; his ceiling exceeds DJ Moore's range of outcomes.

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Parker Washington

PositiveValue1:44

Buy-low candidate after one down week; ranked second in targets per route run, third in air yards per route run, sixth in yards per route run, and top 12 in air yards share heading into week four. Despite strong efficiency metrics, catchable target rate was below 70% (73rd of 100 WRs) and YAC was atypically low. The source projects him as a low-end WR1 at worst and believes this is an opportune time to acquire him, noting that Jacksonville's dead-last ranking in drop backs per game (22.5 routes run per game for Washington) should regress to the mean as the defense normalizes; the source is confident in his tape and expects him to be the go-to target when Jacksonville needs to score. He is described as a do-it-all receiver capable of playing multiple roles, unlike Brian Thomas Jr., Josh Cameron, or Jakobi Meyers.

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Puka Nacua

NegativeProjection9:45

Unicorn asset and power-law player who, if he maintains full health and avoids off-field issues, is the Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford wide receiver one at least until Stafford retires. When fully healthy, he ranks top three in fantasy points per game. The source values him highly enough to decline a trade of Nakua for Michael Wilson and two first-round picks, citing the principle that unicorn assets should be acquired, not traded away, as they are scarce and fantasy football is ruled by power-law distribution. However, injury experts including Jeff Mueller and Jesse Morris warn of heightened reinjury risk due to pre-patellar tendinitis that could escalate to patellar tendinitis requiring six to eight weeks off.

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NegativeInjury10:20

Injury-prone player currently in rehab; all injury experts including Jeff Mueller and Jesse Morris warn of heightened reinjury risk due to pre-patellar tendinitis that could escalate to patellar tendinitis requiring six to eight weeks off.

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Rashee Rice

PositiveRole37:22

Rasheed Rice's role is strengthened by the loss of Taquon Thorson and the overall health of the Chiefs offense, which includes Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, and other weapons. The offense is rolling despite injuries, supporting Rice's fantasy value.

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Trey McBride

PositiveUsage8:12

Ranks top seven in first-read target share on an Arizona Cardinals offense that very possibly can lead all offenses in play volume this year; he has 10.3 targets per game over his last 12 games, one of only three players at his position with double-digit targets per game.

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Tucker Kraft

PositiveValue28:58

Tucker Craft is a buy-low candidate with strong pathway to second-half production. Route share is up to 72% over the last three weeks; target share has trended sharply upward (10% → 15% → 23% last week). He has recorded four drops (one in end zone) that are uncharacteristic. Elite YAC metrics: led league in yards after catch per reception minus screens each of last three years. Next four games include Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, and Carolina—four of the bottom six defenses in the league, including the two worst. Packers offense has no running game or defense and must air it out. Craft has been a stabilizing force for Jordan Love throughout his career and should see increased volume and efficiency as the season progresses; the source expects the Packers to return to basics with Craft in the lineup.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

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0:00Week five, buy low, sell high. The trades you need to know here on Fantasy Football Daily on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. [music]
0:17Listen, if you're a returning subscriber, you already know why this is the best YouTube channel in the space.
0:22We're helping you win fantasy leagues every day. Make sure you hit the like button. If you're new here, don't forget to subscribe and then turn notifications
0:30on so you don't miss a single video from Scott Barrett and myself, Brett Whitefield. All right, let's dive in.
0:38Scott, how are you today, sir?
0:40>> I'm doing good. How are you >> doing? I I'm doing good. You know, I'm I'm almost to the other side of whatever
0:46this this funk is. So, I'm doing much better than yesterday and the day before that. And, you know, >> Yeah. Feel good, man. It's it's
0:54beautiful outside. It's it's great.
0:55>> Yeah. the the hookie flu, huh?
0:57>> Yeah, exactly. The hookie flu. Yep. Mhm.
1:01So, almost through the fake flu, which is great, you know.
1:05Um, but let's let's dive in. I This is my favorite episode I think we do all week.
1:10>> Is that right?
1:11>> Well, it's a little more abstract, right? We get kind of get to live in this. I think this is a very realistic
1:15application, but we also get to kind of flex our our skills, our brain matter.
1:23You get to be a little verbose on some of these guys, you know.
1:26>> Yeah.
1:26>> And I and I think the the listeners really like it, too. So, >> the feedback's been great.
1:32>> Let's start with Boss.
1:33>> Let's do it.
1:34>> I am curious on the Boss because you listed a name at the top here, Scott, that um little interesting Parker Washington.
1:44Do we do we So, he's on the B low. So, you're assuming that the one down week has shaken believers to their core and they're now
1:53possibly willing to sell.
1:55>> Yeah. Listen, I I'm doubling down. I'm tripling down. I'm quadrupling down.
2:00This is He was the Exodia to end all Exodas. This was the number one mustdraft pick or we're not friends anymore. And so, uh I think I think
2:10yeah, I like I I still feel really confident. This is like a low-end wide receiver one at at worst. And you know,
2:17maybe after the down week last week, you know, this is our chance to pounce and buy low. I think he was honestly a buy
2:25low even before this week. Um, I had this tweet heading into week four where he was second in targets per route run, third in air yards per
2:35route run, sixth in yards per route run, uh, top 12 in ass, and all of his numbers should have been way better. He
2:45had a catchable target rate below 70% that ranked 73rd of 100 wide receivers.
2:53uh his yak was atypically low. And here's the big thing that we've seen uh transfer over one more week is yeah, the
3:04Jaguars rank dead last in drop backs per game. And yeah, Parker Washington easily leads the team in route share, but he's
3:14averaging only 22.5 routes run per game.
3:18That's literally half that of Devon Veil. Almond Ross St. Brown has run 52 fourth quarter routes. Parker Washington
3:27has run 13 and the Jaguars only have 14 total drop backs in the fourth quarter.
3:33And so um right now this is a top five defense by EPA per play. Brett, you can tell me if you think that sticks. I I'd
3:40guess probably not. And we should expect a regression to the mean. We should expect more pass volume. Jacksonville is probably not going to rank dead last in
3:49pass attempts this season. Uh, and so yeah, I think this is a great time to buy. I don't think Parker Washington is
3:56being valued certainly anywhere near where I have him.
4:01>> Yeah, the the defense thing is interesting because I I do kind of think their defense is really nice. Um, >> you almost said that like Borat.
4:09>> It's very nice.
4:10>> Really nice.
4:11>> Really nice.
4:12>> My wife.
4:14>> Yeah. I their defense really played well last year and I think the assumption would be they'd take a step back. They let Devin
4:21Lloyd go um who's, you know, a top three linebacker in the league and is making a huge impact in Carolina. But, you know,
4:28I I don't know. I really like Anthony Campanelli, their defensive coordinator.
4:33He's kind of got a psycho gene, which is awesome. I I'm inclined to think that this this defense is here to stay. Now,
4:40do they play better teams coming up that they could get in some more shootouts?
4:43Not really. Like maybe Baltimore if if Lamar's healthy, they get Chicago down the stretch, Dallas down the stretch, but like they got some pies coming up
4:53too with, you know, Indianapolis and Tennessee and New York. And so I don't know. I don't know if the the defense
5:00thesis is a good one. I just a believer in Parker Washington, though. The tape is outrageous. The tape is great. I do
5:06think when they need to put points on the board, he's going to be the go-to target week in and week out. So, um I
5:13>> He's so good.
5:14>> He's so good.
5:14>> Yeah. Thank you.
5:16>> Yeah, that's what I'm That's what I'm saying. Yeah.
5:18>> Yeah.
5:18>> He He's a He's a do it all receiver, too, which >> can't be said for Brian Thomas Jr. or Josh Cameron or Jacobe Myers. He he
5:27literally can do everything. And so, I think that makes him the most valuable player in this offense.
5:32>> Did you see my cope/conspiracy theory on this?
5:36>> Yeah.
5:38>> Listen, I'm I'm self-aware, okay? Like I'm in on the I'm in on the bit. But it was uh you what happened last week
5:44because I was predicting by the way you sh flowers to you. Flowers to our wide receiver versus quarterback guy Jordan Vanic. Both said it was going to be a
5:53tough matchup for Parker Washington. A much softer matchup for Brett Strange.
5:58And that's really how it went. It was a down game. But my conspiracy theory was it had nothing to do with the
6:03quarterback matchup. It was what it was is James Gladstone is desperate to sign Parker Washington an extension. So he pulled Liam Cohen aside, Trevor Lawrence
6:15aside. It's like, "Hey, we need to get you offensive linemen next year. Let's keep this contract low. I need the upper
6:20hand in negotiations." So only only two targets max for Parker Washington this week and we'll get the extension done.
6:28So hey, if the extension gets done in the next two three days here, uh we're going to go with that.
6:34Yeah, I'm gonna sell on that thesis being accurate. But I like the Cope though. I like the Cope.
6:39>> Yeah.
6:40>> No, I think the thing that makes the matchup tough and moving forward when we're doing start sit against the Bengals is they moved Dax Hill, their
6:46first round safety pick to nickel full-time last year and he's been a very good player there. And so, uh, he he was
6:53like an outside nickel hybrid last year.
6:56This year, he's playing nickel full-time with DJ Turner and Takar, rookie Takario Davis on the other spot outside. So, I think this is just generally a harder
7:05receiver matchup than we're used to, and that bore true this past week. Um, the next buy low is another guy who he was
7:13an inseason Exodia for us, Michael Wilson. C can you really buy low on Michael Wilson still? He was a buy low
7:20last week. He's got 30 targets over the last two weeks, Scott. I don't know if you can I don't know if buying low on
7:26Michael Wilson's still a thing, but you tell me.
7:29>> Yeah, I I I think so. I mean, just like how I'm viewing him and valuing him. And by the way, this is the perfect time to
7:36buy low. He faces your Detroit Lions, the worst defense in football. Um, the stat I had over his last 12 games.
7:47>> He ranks second in targets per game. He ranks second in air yards per game. You know, by production, he's a high-end
7:55wide receiver one. But I I'd wager he's probably not even priced like a mid-range wide receiver too in your leagues. Um and so yeah, now is a great
8:04time to pounce. He's running really bad with with luck. Uh he's the current he's currently the wide receiver seven by XFP
8:13per game. He's only the wide receiver 20 by [snorts] fantasy points per game. Uh what's going on there? Well, he had four
8:20end zone targets and he's scored zero touchdowns in those. that's going to regress to the mean. Um, and right now, yeah, you have both Michael Wilson and
8:32Trey McBride ranking top seven in first read target share on an offense that very possibly can lead all offenses in play volume this year.
8:44>> Scott, I'm going to at risk of losing the listener, I'm asking a dynasty question to you right now because I need
8:48to know the answer to this.
8:50>> Yeah. Would you trade Puka Nua in exchange for Michael Wilson and two first round picks?
9:02>> Probably probably not. And so you you sent me this text message the the other day and it it it's really tricky by the way. You see it on
9:10the screen here. Uh all wide receivers and tight ends over their last 12 games.
9:16So last 12 games for every single one of these players. Michael Wilson. Only three players have double-digit targets per game. Two of them are on the Arizona
9:24Cardinals. Michael Wilson 10.7. Trey McBride 10.3. Yeah. And so to answer this question, it's it's really tricky and this isn't me trying to be like you,
9:33the slippery eel. It's just this is one of the trickiest things because >> Puka Nakua to me if he maintains full health and no off
9:45the- field shenanigans is a unicorn asset. He is the the Shawn McVey wide receiver one. He's the Matthew Stafford wide receiver one at least until
9:55Stafford retires. Uh and he that means like fully healthy as long as that he's top three in fantasy points per game.
10:03He's a power law player. And every single trade I've ever made, giving up a unicorn asset where it's like, oh, you
10:11know, I'm I'm win later and I'm getting so many great pieces here. It's never worked out in my favor. It's always you
10:20don't want to ever trade away the unicorn assets. You want to be acquiring them. They're just so scarce. And fantasy football is a game ruled by the
10:28power law. And this is a power law player. The argument against this is well yeah Matthew Stafford Brett you said his arm kind of looks cooked. Uh he
10:40could retire next year. Let's be careful. It was one game I said he looked like Case Keenum.
10:44>> Yeah. Uh he could retire next year.
10:47Shawn McVey could be like all right peace. I'm out. I'm I'm going to the booth. Uh you have Puketa biting people.
10:56Uh going to rehab. Uh, and you have he seems like an injury-prone guy, >> as much as I love Michael Wilson and two
11:05first round picks >> and and and that's part of it here too is like what what are the odds one of
11:10those picks turn into Jeremiah Smith if it's like >> it's not not not very uh >> okay. So then so then I would say I
11:19would say no. And that's just me a philosophical approach where in the past maybe I've been more into it but it's
11:27it's really >> okay >> the unicorn assets Brett it's it's what it's what decides our fates.
11:34>> Gotcha.
11:36Um I will say that like h how much longer of Michael Wilson producing at this level until you change your tune?
11:4630 targets in two weeks. What if in two more weeks from now he's still averaging, you know, double digit targets per game?
11:55>> Well, I don't know. Listen, this this was supposed to be a Is it supposed to be a reddraft show? But um
12:00>> it is a red show. Yeah.
12:01>> Yeah. Like I said, like it would not surprise me if Michael Wilson we should be valuing as a mid-r as a
12:09low-end wide receiver one, right?
12:11>> And like how is your league valuing him?
12:14What are these trades we're seeing?
12:16We're seeing Katon Mitchell for Michael Wilson.
12:18>> That's absurd.
12:19>> I know. PE.
12:24>> Some of these are mouthfuls. We >> Yeah, a lot of moving parts.
12:27>> Too overly complicated.
12:29>> Well, so what? Give me a good one to one. I know I put you on the spot with this. I ask you to prepare for it every
12:33week. What's a good one to one for Michael Wilson?
12:37>> Well, well, Trey Trey volunteered one.
12:39He volunteered Devonte Adams for Michael Wilson in reddraft.
12:43>> Wow. Yeah, and that's again that's just a really tricky one. I don't I don't like sidest stepping these answers, but
12:52we have Jeff Mueller, Jesse Morris, all the injury experts are saying, "Yeah, Puka is playing and he looks okay, but he has a very heightened risk of
13:02reinjury because it's a pre-portternia injury that at any point can turn into a sporteria where you're out six to eight weeks." And then Devonte Adams clearly
13:11showed >> Yeah. the the Matthew Stafford, Shawn McVey, wide receiver, one role is like right there with JSN, Jir Gibbs, Bejan
13:19Robinson, and no one else.
13:22>> Okay. So, you have a say you have a a running back needy team and you have you're sitting on Cam Scataboo. Would
13:29you go Cam Scoo?
13:30>> Michael Wilson over Cam Scataboo, please.
13:32>> Okay, that's good.
13:34All right, let's move on. Um, let's go Ashton Genty as the next buy low. You You're 180ing on this. He's been There
13:42were three Michael Wilson for Malik Neighbors trades on there. And so Malik Neighbors, it's very similar to the Puka thing where all the injury experts think
13:52like, yeah, he could he could take a bad hit, forced to get shoulder surgery.
13:58>> It's a Giants team that's top the NFC East, but uh major question marks. The ass was really bad the first three weeks
14:05for Malik Neighbors. Jameus Winston looks awful.
14:09I'd probably take Michael Wilson personally.
14:12Okay.
14:14Ashton Genty, a guy you're you're 180ing on. You've been you've been out on him.
14:18Now you're saying he's a buy low.
14:20>> Well, I I haven't been out on him. I I've been >> Oh, come on.
14:24>> I've been skeptical of his talent.
14:27>> We had a guest on the show talk about him for 40 minutes. You're so out on him.
14:33>> Yeah. It's Listen, I I I question the talent. I comped him to Naji Harris.
14:38early career Naji Harris, but rookie season Naji Harris was in Exodia. Uh I comped him to Leonard Fernette that that one year with the Jaguars where he
14:48>> What's What's with the disrespect though?
14:51>> What do you mean?
14:52>> You're comping him to these unathletic.
14:55>> I think this is disparaging. I don't think it is. It's because fantasy football is ruled by volume, especially at the running back.
15:02>> So, it's just a volume comp is all you're saying.
15:05>> It's a roll comp. extremely below average efficiency, elite volume, but volume is so much more important. And so what we have with Ash and Genty is right
15:15now it's the second best workload in fantasy. Only Jamir Gibbs averages more XFP per game than Ashen Genty. He's at
15:2322.1 XFP per game, but because the efficiency is awful, he's averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game. But guess what?
15:33That's awesome. 18.5 fantasy points per game is a lot. his the differential between those two numbers only Tony Pard and JK Dobbins are worse. So he is like
15:43Trent Richardson, Naji Harris, Leonard Fernet, he's on that spectrum in terms of efficiency, but volume wins out at the end of the
15:52day. Mike Washington was never a volume guy in any of his five seasons in college. Uh and volume is the most
16:00important thing. And it's also very possible Ashen Genty is dealing with an ankle sprain. He had a quote a couple days ago. He's like, "Yeah, you know,
16:09I'm working my bay way back to 100%.
16:12Hopefully shouldn't be too much longer."
16:13So, you could blame the the efficiency on that. Uh but but you know, bottom line is Clint Kubak looks awesome. Looks
16:21incredible. Uh this offense looks like one we really want to be invested in.
16:25And like I said, uh only Jamir Gibbs is seeing better volume.
16:30>> Yeah. and he plays with one of these OG quarterbacks that checks the ball down a lot. I was DMing with you about this the
16:35other day. This is like a legit hack in fantasy right now.
16:37>> The anti- Konami code.
16:39>> The anti- Konami code. The guys who can't extend plays with their legs, their running backs are just going to get hammered with targets. And we're
16:46seeing it all over the league. Ashen Genty, Chase Brown, Bean Robinson, Jir Gibbs. What's the common denominator?
16:53They have quarterbacks that don't move.
16:56I think that's a good thing. So, uh, if I were a betting man, if I if I were to bet money, I'd actually bet on his
17:02efficiency coming up as well, Scott. For one, he has a ton of juice. The juice is ev evident on screen. And the Brock
17:09Bowers effect will slowly stretch this defense a little bit, at least horizontally, if not vertically, which should should help him a little bit and
17:17get that get that yards per carry to at least like four, you know. Um, speaking of betting, our guy Tom Bradley is up
17:2510.7 units through four weeks with a 62% hit rate. That means if you bet $100 per unit, you'd have made over $1,000 in
17:32your first month with the fantasy points in seasonason betting subscription. And this isn't out of the ordinary for Tom, who is now up 77 and a half units over
17:41his last three years. Use promo code grinder for 70% off your first month.
17:48Inseason betting subscription. It's new this year, Scott. It's uh it's a very big time value ad to subscribers. It's not necessarily cheap, but as you can
17:56see, you're making money. $1,000 over the first month from just a $100 per unit bet. That's a That's a ridiculous ROI.
18:04>> That's right. That's right. Yeah. And that's Yeah, dude. Tom's been killing it. He He runs our betting product. He was over 60% last year. He's over 60%
18:12this year.
18:14uh I think at least 30 plus units up in 2024 and 2025 and uh he's on pace for for something even better than that this
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19:00>> And again, that's code grinder for 70% off your first month of the inseason betting package.
19:06All right, let's move on. Chase Brown, I already mentioned him. Kind of buried the lead. He's he's with one of these OG
19:11quarterbacks. Joe Burrow's more mobile than say a Jared Goff, but he doesn't like to use that mobility all the time.
19:17He checks the ball down a lot. Chase Brown. Uh I feel like Scott, the thing I wanted to ask you is he's been on our
19:25buy low list I think three weeks now out of five shows.
19:28>> Yeah.
19:28>> Three out of five shows. So like at one point do we get concerned that the production hasn't been there and there's
19:34a reason he's still a buy low?
19:37>> Cuz the role is fantastic, dude. there.
19:39There's nothing to this. This isn't anything, but it's it's >> kind of what's happened three years in a row. He sucked in the first half of his
19:46rookie season.
19:48>> Uh Zack Moss to be fair and then he Zack Moss got hurt and then last year he sucked in the first half and then in the
19:56second half he averaged more fantasy points per game than Bejian Robinson. He went nuclear and and now I'm looking at him, he had 11 catches last week. That's
20:05insanely rare. And they don't T. Higgins is out couple games. Jamar Chase could could miss. And so like the the crux of
20:15this argument is right now he's behind only Bejian Robinson, Jamir Gibbs, and Ashen Genty
20:23in non Red Zone XFP per game.
20:28He's up actually like 2.5 points from last year, but inside the red zone, he's 30th in red zone XFP per game. He was
20:36top 12 last year and uh yeah, it just seems like yeah, the the Bengals offense hasn't really found their footing. I
20:45think it's going to come and even if it doesn't come these next two weeks, the volume in the past games should be there
20:51just because there's just about no one else. Um, and so yeah, it really wouldn't surprise me if this trend continues and Chase Brown blows up in
20:57the second half, but um is I mean it's still like a high floor like high-end RB2, even if he struggles for the next
21:07he's he's just so he's just so safe and there's a lot of untapped potential and upside that he's demonstrated over the
21:13years.
21:14>> The Bengals offense is is actually been kind of buns to start the year. They've only broke 20 points twice in four
21:19games. Very unusual. I don't think watching that Jaguars game and I was like, dude, imagine if if you swapped coaches, >> oh my god,
21:28>> you gave Trevor Lawrence, Zack Taylor, and you gave Joe Burrow, Liam Co.
21:32>> Scary thought. Scary thought. Yeah, they they haven't broke 30 points yet this year, actually. And I think Joe Burrow's 15th in EPA per drop back. The run game
21:41has not found its footing yet. You know, Chase Brown's averaging less than four yards per carry. I don't think we expect
21:46any of this to stick as the season progresses. So I I'm definitely with you here. Bo, Chase Brown. I sign off on
21:54that wholeheartedly.
21:56Next guy we're going to talk about is Bashel Tutin, Jacksonville running back.
21:59We've had a lot of different discussions about him this year. I think mostly in the start sit episodes, but you you seem
22:05to be a Bashel Tutin guy. I know Ryan Heath is a big-time Bashel Tutin guy.
22:10Uh what what do you got for me here?
22:13Convince me because I don't I don't buy it right now.
22:16>> Yeah, listen. He's the efficiency is great among all running backs with 50 plus touches. He ranks fourth in rushing
22:26success rate, fourth in yards after the catch per reception, fifth in explosive play rate, fifth in missed tackles force per attempt, sixth in yards after
22:35contact per attempt, sixth in EPA per snap. All the other running backs well behind that mark. The volume is good and
22:43continuing to improve. did 17 of 23 carries last week, two of two backfield targets, and he had two touchdowns. Two
22:52touchdowns called back. So, if you have a league, >> they'll score you big time fantasy points, by the way.
22:59>> What? Touchdowns called back.
23:00>> Yeah. Mhm.
23:01>> You know what that does is if you have a donkey league member who just looks at the box score, they don't they don't see that
23:09and you see that. So, um, >> so you're going to go chasing fake fantasy points is what you're saying.
23:14>> I think that sets up a great opportunity to buy low, um, on an offense that that looks awesome. It's at a bare minimum,
23:22it's like a at a bare minimum, he's like a mid-range RB2, too. Like, if this role doesn't improve, but I think it improves
23:28and if it and and and so there's a ton of upside there if that's the case.
23:37>> So, we're going to chase fake fantasy points. What how do you feel about Chris Rodriguez?
23:44>> He just hasn't been anywhere near as good as Tuton or as dynamic. And you know, a part of the thesis was he's
23:51going to get all the goal line opportunities. That's really not the case.
23:55>> Well, he's scored as many rushing touchdowns as Bachel Tutin has.
24:00>> Well, Toutton had two last week.
24:03>> No, he didn't. Zero. He had zero, actually. If we if we want to play this game, >> this is what I'm saying. No, this is
24:08what I'm saying is like if you have a league owner who owns Basil Tutin is making these arguments. Yeah, he doesn't
24:15deserve Basil Tutin. You do. Make sure you you pry him away and add him to your team.
24:20>> Okay. What's a one to one you're comfortable with for Tutin?
24:23>> Well, I'm looking at the uh front office tool and um Basil Tutin is well behind Cam Scataboo. I would much
24:34rather have Basel Tutin. There's some wild trades in here.
24:38>> One spot behind Omar and Hampton.
24:41Um, so I would >> Okay, somebody traded Derrick Henry for Basel Tuton. What are we doing? Okay, some of these are just not a thing.
24:48>> Yeah, >> give me a good example. Give me a receiver you would go one to one for on Balutin. I need I need one.
24:58>> If you want a wide receiver, um, much rather have Toutin than Ibuka.
25:05I'd rather have him poker.
25:08>> What about Matthew Golden?
25:11>> Yeah. Yeah, but I like Matthew Golden.
25:13Like I I should have put him as a buy low, >> right? So So where we at there?
25:17>> Yeah. Toten. But I might Okay.
25:21>> What about trying to think of a a more mid mid-tier guy? Denzel Boston.
25:32I'd rather have two.
25:33>> Wow. Okay.
25:36I'm not a believer, but Scott is. Ryan Heath is. That should be enough firepower for you to get on board.
25:40>> Why aren't you a believer?
25:43>> Uh, well, I don't like his role.
25:47Chris, you you talk about he's much more dynamic than than Chris Rodriguez. Says who? Says what?
25:55>> Says the stats.
25:57>> You got to watch the tape. Chris Rodriguez just had a 25 yard touchdown run.
26:00>> Chris Rodriguez just had a 25 yard touchdown run. Yeah, I do. I don't know if you're aware of this, but I I run the
26:06whole data product over here at Fantasy Points.
26:10You know, >> yeah, >> you know where the data comes from, Scott?
26:14>> Yeah. From people who watch film. So, I outsource the film watching.
26:18>> You watch.
26:20You could >> you could get misled by, oh, wow, that was a sick play, but it's one out of this player's 500 plays, and then I see
26:28all the plays at once in my spreadsheet.
26:31>> Yeah, that's how it works.
26:33Numbers are just naturally good at contextualizing themselves, for sure.
26:37All right, Garrett Wilson, next on your list, New York Jets. I think we can both agree on this one.
26:42>> Uh Wilson is a dog.
26:44>> Well, [laughter] maybe I should have put this in the let's have a conversation section. Um because we did have him as like I don't
26:53know. We we we debated the idea of him being a sell low because Adnai I Mitchell had more targets, more air
26:59yards through the first two weeks, then he picked up that injury. But I I mean, yeah, maybe this should be a stock up,
27:05stock down episode, but it's like I I'm his stock went down in the eyes of probably his owner because he did
27:13nothing last week. But like I need to just tell you that like that means nothing. Wilson ran 17 routes last week
27:21because the Jets just like the the Bears played keep away. The Bears had more first downs than the Jets ran plays.
27:28Like that's insane.
27:29>> Wil Garrett Wilson ran 17 routes last week.
27:32>> Dante Meyers, who you've never even heard of up until last week, ran 53.
27:3953 versus 17. So just total outlier play volume. There's really nothing to draw from last week's game. Uh, and this is a
27:47great spot to to grab him because even if Adam Mitchell's back this week, he might be wearing an oven mitt. Uh, and
27:54it's an ideal matchup against the Browns. It's a it's a man-heavy matchup.
27:59Uh, they play man 52% of the time. No one else is over 38%. Since 2024, Garrett Wilson, top 12 in yards per
28:08route run against man outside of the top 30 in zone.
28:14>> Interesting. That could be more of a That's a I've told you a million times that's a QB stat, I think.
28:20>> Yeah, that's a Zach Wilson stat, Brett.
28:23>> QB in general. Yeah, the QBs who struggle the most are going to feel way more comfortable throwing against man coverage because it's obvious.
28:31>> Isn't he of the man beater archetype?
28:33He's a >> he's of the dog I beat everything I want to archetype.
28:36>> Oh, okay.
28:37>> Yeah. Yeah. He He's a great player. Uh really really good separation metrics.
28:42Obviously, the contested catch ball winning stuff is insane too with him.
28:45So, I Yeah, I'm a big fan of Garrett Wilson. I think this game was such an outlier, you just throw it away.
28:50Somebody wants to pivot off of him because of that, you go ahead and oblige them.
28:55>> Yeah, good, >> good call.
28:58>> All right, Tucker Craft by low.
29:01How How are This is another one. How are we buying low on Tucker Craft? Do you think people are selling?
29:07>> Um, I don't know. It's very possible that a team, you know, drafted Tucker Craft as their tight end one and then
29:13Isaiah Likely as their tight end two, but they're starting likely and they they have Tucker Craft in the bench and so they don't he's not really of much
29:21use to them and so you could you could buy him. I I I still like the pathway to him being a second half superstar. Uh
29:31it's it's an offense that has no running game, no defense, needs to air it out.
29:36His route share is up to 72% over the last three weeks for a guy who ranked second in fantasy points per route run
29:44over the last two or three years. So that's great. He's seen an uptick in in in in pass volume three straight weeks.
29:5110% target share to 15% to 23% last week. Uh he's he's running a little bit bad. Has four drops, one in the end
30:01zone. That's pretty uncharacteristic for him. Um, but like who he is and who he was is like George KD reincarnated. Uh,
30:10he led the league in yards after the catch per reception minus screens in each of the last three years. That's like insane. Um, and so I I don't know
30:20that he's close to 100% right now, but I feel like by the halfway point, he gets there. The hyperefficiency comes back,
30:29but now it's in this environment where he's on the field more and he's getting more targets.
30:34>> You completely buried the lead.
30:36>> Oh yeah.
30:37>> Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Carolina, his next four games.
30:42>> So now's the time to pounce. He's playing four of the bottom six defenses in the league over the next four weeks,
30:49including the two worst. You go trade for Tucker Craft right now and you put him in your lineup and uh Yeah. Make
30:57that happen.
30:58>> Yeah. It just feels like you're you're buying at the absolute bottom right now.
31:02>> Yeah. I mean, the target numbers have come up the last two weeks. That's that's what I needed to see before I I
31:07really got in on a buy low for him. But the target numbers came up. The Packers are desperate for answers. I think
31:13Tucker Craft has been a stabilizing force for Jordan Love throughout his career, and I would imagine they're going to get back to the basics with
31:20that. So, let's let's ride.
31:22>> Yeah.
31:24>> Okay, Scott. Actually, I have a I wanted to throw something at you.
31:28>> Yeah.
31:28>> Before we transition to our >> What?
31:31>> No, go ahead.
31:32>> What?
31:33>> Throw throw something at me. I I'll I'll catch it.
31:36>> Yeah, exactly.
31:37>> I wouldn't drop it like Jame Williams.
31:39>> Wow. Okay. Okay. Before we get to the next section, we're almost a quarter way through the season. I was thinking for next week's
31:48Wednesday's show, >> I want to do a rest of season rankings update live on the show.
31:54>> Oh, let's do it. That's great.
31:55>> Where we talk stock up, stock stock down on guys. It kind of naturally becomes a uh you know, a buy low, sell high
32:02anyways because we're talking rest of season stuff.
32:05>> Let us know in the comments if that sounds like a nice switch up for next week being that we'll be you know, a
32:09whole quarter of the way through the season. So, uh, I think that'd be a great kind of State of the Union
32:14address, see where we are as a nation, a fantasy nation, and then we'll we'll move on from there. Sound good?
32:20>> Yeah. Yeah. And and please, everyone, uh, you know, really appreciate the comments in YouTube. Uh, we have the fantasy points fairy blessing you.
32:28Random commenters will win a free subscription, a free subscription upgrade, free swag from the store. Also, we're on the lookout on Reddit. Uh,
32:37Reddit doesn't like me. Reddit. Reddit.
32:39Reddit is very mean to me. So, nice things about fantasy points on Reddit, in the YouTube comments, on Twitter.
32:46We'll take notice, maybe hook you up with uh a cool shirt or hat.
32:51>> Isn't Reddit just like a super negative place?
32:54>> Pool. Yeah.
32:55>> Yeah. That's the vibe I've I've never actually been on Reddit, but you send me screenshots of Reddit and I'm like, this
33:00just seems >> just miserable human beings. Yeah.
33:03>> Yeah. Exactly. All right, we're gonna move on.
33:06>> 4chan loves us, though, dude. 4chan is always so pro fantasy points.
33:12>> Really?
33:14>> I [laughter] don't think so.
33:15>> I I don't What is 4chan is? I don't even know what that is.
33:17>> Uh YouTube commenters, let let Brett know what 4chan is.
33:20>> Isn't that the Shia Labuff platform?
33:24>> I don't know.
33:25>> Okay. Well, I don't know. All right.
33:28We're going to move on to the next section. You have this in the show sheet as injured stars. If you're four for if
33:33you're 4 and0 or 3 to one to potentially trade for and you want me to say hot, mint or cold on all these guys?
33:40>> Yeah. Yeah, that was my idea. So, so here's the thing is like this is a broad bucket. Stock up, stock down, buy low,
33:46sell high, but things are different for different people. 4 and0 teams are sitting in the lap of luxury. They they they have it all. They can big
33:57advantage. You know, it's it's they're the 1enters. If you're 4-0 or 3 in one, it really can make sense for you to take
34:05advantage of these one and three teams who are desperate, who are anxious, who okay, I have T. Higgins, but T. Higgins
34:12is going to be out a couple of weeks. I don't know that I could afford to take that zero. So, you need to take
34:17advantage of them and the rich get richer. Bible study with Brett and Scott. What is What is the Bible verse that's like this?
34:24>> He who has more will be given.
34:26>> That's Spider-Man. To whom much is given, [laughter] much is required.
34:30>> To whom much is given, much is required.
34:32That's Spider-Man, bro. That's That's Uncle That's Uncle Ben. Yeah. Yeah, it is.
34:38>> Uh, to those who have, more will be given.
34:42Yeah. Parable of the talents.
34:43>> Oh, yeah. Parable. Okay, great.
34:46>> Yeah. I I like to call this >> Spider-Man is Spider-Man is what?
34:49Spider- uh >> to whom much is given, much is required.
34:52That's Spider-Man.
34:54>> No. No. What's What's this spider?
34:58>> Whatever.
34:58>> With great power comes great responsibility.
35:00>> That's a Dang it. Wow. I totally just got owned. [laughter] Jeez.
35:06I The way you laid this out, I think it's brilliant. I like to call this in in the game of chess. This is optimizing
35:11the chess board. So a lot of times you get a dominant position, you win the opening and then it just becomes about
35:17slightly making like slight optimization moves to improve your endgame position or to take the queen off the board. If you get get a favorable chess position,
35:27you can trade the queens, get them off the board, your chances of losing that game now diminish greatly. That's exactly what this is, especially with
35:33the first guy on here, Jamar Chase. Hey, I'm in a very optimal position right now. the the thing that could help me
35:40win the most is to take somebody's queen away from them and we're gonna trade pieces. I'm gonna get your queen off the
35:45board and Jamar Chase, he's now gonna be on my board.
35:48>> What a what an analogy, Brett.
35:50>> You like that?
35:50>> That was fantastic. I mean, of course, >> of course, it's a chess analogy because you're the world's biggest nerd. Um, but
35:57it was it was excellent.
35:59>> I'm the world's biggest nerd. I talked to you this morning on the phone and you told me a story about how your best
36:02friend stole some Yu-Gi-Oh cards from you when you were a kid.
36:08>> Yeah. Yeah, I I'm I I know I'm one to talk. I know. Yeah.
36:12>> Well, you know, it's it's it's the listeners at fault. Why are you listening to a bunch of nerds nerd out
36:18about fantasy football and Star Wars and Yu-Gi-Oh and chess?
36:23>> Yeah, I don't think chess is nerdy, by the way.
36:26>> No, I know.
36:26>> I think like the sharpest minds throughout world.
36:28>> I was just trying to be mean to you.
36:29>> Oh, >> chess is cool. Yeah, chess is >> No, no one is shocked you're trying to be mean to me, by the way.
36:35>> Let's get on with it. Jamar Chase, we hot, we mad, we cold.
36:39>> Well, I I'm I'm asking you. So >> Oh, you're asking me. Okay. Hot.
36:42>> Yeah. So, I don't know that you could buy low on Chase when he's probably going to play this week. He just needs
36:48to clear concussion protocol. Uh but maybe someone's looking at what's really been a slow start. 15.1 fantasy points per game. And if T. Higgins is out the
36:59next two weeks like he's going to go nuclear because that's that's what you've seen when Higgins goes down. But the question is like
37:10City Lamb or Jamar Chase and Ross Brown or Jamar Chase >> for rest of season?
37:18>> Yeah, definitely Chase.
37:22>> Yeah, definitely Chase.
37:23>> Okay. All right. Rasheed Rice.
37:27Meh.
37:31>> Yeah. You know, I was I was such a hater, but you lose >> Yeah. You can't be cold because of the
37:37injury to >> you lose Taekquin Thordon. Xavier Worthy Stanx Travis Kelce old. Offense is rolling.
37:48>> Okay.
37:52>> See that?
37:53>> What was that? What was what?
37:57>> Did you you said see that?
37:59>> Did you see that? It says quick hits at the top. These are supposed to be quick hitters.
38:02>> Oh, yeah.
38:03>> Well, you you froze up when you said that. So, I thought you were talking about >> Oh, really?
38:07>> you freezing up. Yeah. Um, okay. Justin Jefferson.
38:13>> Ice cold.
38:15>> Really? Let's hear it. Because right now he's top five in fantasy points per route run. Top five in XFP per route
38:21run. The Vikings offense is like the worst offense in football. Can't be any worse than it's been. Right. Right.
38:28>> I don't know if you're aware of this, but Kyler Murray sucks.
38:31>> Yeah.
38:32>> Carson went sucks. So, yeah. I I definitely think it can it can be worse and likely will be worse. And what's the
38:39thing you always tell me? Volume is king. Fantasy points per route run are great if you're getting a ton of opportunity.
38:46>> Well, he was. I mean, he like the target share was insanely high before he got got hurt. I'm with you. I would have
38:51went cold on this too. I I'm just telling you there there's certainly a range of outcome this this >> Yeah. The other component, Scott, as
38:58I've been telling you since last year, he's not the same dude.
39:00>> Even this year, >> he ain't that guy. Correct. Even this year, >> bro, I said I said after week one,
39:06Keshan Nixon put him in a freaking phone booth.
39:09>> Yeah. It was a lot of contested catches.
39:10>> Yes. Which he's good at. I mean, he he'll win some of those. But >> yeah, I mean, I'm looking at like he's
39:15got five catches the last two games he's played.
39:18>> No. Yeah, I'm with you. Again, this could backfire. It's Justin Jefferson, but >> whatever.
39:24>> Yep. The next three are >> DJ Moore, Lamar Jackson, Lad Mani. DJ Moore, I'm gonna say
39:35I guess I have to downgrade my hot to a Matt just because the seems like he can't stay healthy. It's like if I knew
39:41he was going to play, >> I'm way hot. But I'm I'm feeling just a little down about >> it's just like one thing after another
39:48with his health right now. So >> yeah, I would just say so I think he's going to be out till week eight. I think
39:52the price to acquire is like really strong, but I think week five meh week seven like scalding hot.
40:01>> Okay.
40:02>> So just just wait it out. Let someone else eat that zero for a couple more weeks.
40:06>> Lamar Jackson.
40:08>> Yeah. And let me preface this one, Brett. Last year, I had Lamar Jackson as a buy where he was out and I saw how bad
40:15the Ravens defense was and I'm like, "Bro, he's gonna come back and he's going to go nuclear." The problem is he
40:21came back and he came back a shell of his self and he stopped running and defense is no longer living in fear of
40:27the run. Played him like a pocket passer and a pocket passer he is not. And so he turned into Aaron Rogers by every set.
40:35Completion percentage over expectation, fantasy points per game. And it was awful. So all these people who bought low on Lamar Jackson just went lower.
40:43You know, their their stock went to zero. And so that's my concern here with this ankle.
40:50But it's also, dude, Declan Doyle looks awesome.
40:54>> Yeah. I'm not I think I'm cold on this.
40:56I'm not extracting value out of my team to go chase Lamar Jackson.
41:01>> Okay.
41:02>> So Lad Maki, I'm cold on this, too.
41:08>> Why is that? I do. We need to do this again.
41:11>> Okay. All right. That's fine.
41:12>> Mike McDaniel stinks. Justin Herbert stinks. The offensive line stinks.
41:15>> But you know what doesn't stink?
41:17>> Lad Mcconi.
41:18>> The Tyreek Hill roll.
41:23>> Okay. Next up, quick hits. Quick hits.
41:26Not >> Mike Evans, Bree Hall, Devonte Smith.
41:29Mike Evans. I will say gosh, I think I have to go hot. And I know it it sounds uh hypocritical because I I put Matt on
41:38DJ Moore for health concerns and Mike Evans has left like every game of the season early.
41:42>> I know, >> but if we can get a a healthy stretch for Mike Evans at any point, he's going to break stuff. I keep saying this. It's
41:50so good. He's so good. Brock Perie's so good. Kyle Shanahan's so good. I have I don't think DJ Moore has this in the
41:59range of outcomes what Mike Evans ceiling is. So, for that reason, I'm going to go hot on Evans, even though I
42:04went meh on DJ Moore. [snorts] >> Bro, I I kind of want to go meh. And so, part of this is the Exodia curse. I
42:12listen, I cut a gypsy off in traffic like four months ago. I used to be amazing at fantasy football and now I'm
42:19the world's biggest mush. And so, I'm I'm worried about that. No, but really what it is is one, yeah, he can't stay
42:25healthy and and the other thing is and it's like one injury after another.
42:30First it was like a groin in August and now it's like I don't know punctured like a broken rib that's like stabbing
42:37into his lung or whatever. Um the other thing is like I feel like there is some load management here where it's like
42:45they're only calling on him when they really need him. So he leads all wide receivers in target share on third down.
42:55He's at 45%. It's like literally every And by the way, the 49ers have the best third down offense in fantasy points
43:02data history by a country mile. And so 50% of the time, 45% of the time, they're going to Mike Evans. On all
43:11other downs, it's 13%. And this was true in week one. And it's been true every single week. And so I worry it's just
43:20like, hey, this guy's old and injuryprone and we have Super Bowl aspirations. So we're only going to we're only going to use you when we
43:27really need you and and then in the playoffs he gets unleashed and he's the ascot and whatnot.
43:32>> Uh do you think there's anything to that or you think that's just me >> a little shell shocked from a bad Exodia
43:39calls?
43:40>> I mean I think there's possibly some load management there.
43:44>> Like if some of these games were closer maybe he he plays a little more. like they beat Miami by like 22 points,
43:49right? They killed the Rams.
43:51>> No reason for him to be getting a ton of targets late in those games. So, >> all right. Who are who are the the Ners
43:56playing? They're playing >> They have a mixed bag. They got Seattle this week, I think, but then Washington, then Atlanta, who's been awesome, then
44:04the Raiders have been good, but then Dallas. I don't It's It's a mixed bag, but this offense is so good. I don't
44:08know that it matters.
44:10>> Yeah.
44:10>> So, Bree Hall, um, when is he he's on IR, right?
44:16So he's got he has to sit three more weeks I think. So week nine probably at the earliest or week eight at the
44:24earliest.
44:26So I don't know I'm going to go mad on Brie.
44:31>> He's weak to weak. He's not on IR.
44:33>> Oh, he's not on IR.
44:35>> Yeah.
44:35>> Okay.
44:36>> It was supposed to be I don't know. I got to check Jeff's article.
44:44>> Yeah. Make sure you're you're following Jeff Mueller on fantasypoints.com. He's the injury expert that's going to break down all these injuries for you. Give
44:51you updates, let you know when we should expect guys and when or what we should expect from them when they come back,
44:56what the prognosis is there.
44:59>> Uh two to three weeks. Two to >> probably.
45:03>> So he's already missed one week.
45:06>> Could be back week six. Latest is probably week eight.
45:10>> Okay.
45:12Meh.
45:13>> Yeah, I'm pretty meh. So, >> yeah, me too.
45:17>> Okay, Devonte Smith. Uh, geez.
45:22I guess meh as well, >> dude. Is this is this Eagles offense toast?
45:29>> They don't look good. Scott, >> is it over?
45:33>> I don't know. We've done this before.
45:35The year they won the Super Bowl, we were having the same conversations after week three and week four.
45:38>> Yeah, but they had so much more talent.
45:40>> They did. You're not wrong. That's a good point.
45:44>> Yeah.
45:45>> And they had the coordinators, Kell Moore and Vic Fangio.
45:49>> So, and Jeff Stland.
45:51>> Yeah.
45:52>> Yeah. I'm going to go man. All right.
45:54Let's move on to some sell highs.
45:55>> Yeah.
45:59>> Cam Scataboo, Quinn Sean Judkins, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison. Uh, why are we selling your boy Cam Scaboo, Scott? Come on. What's up with this? Uh, so he's
46:08he's been getting good positive game script, which I don't expect to continue for a shitty team. Uh, he's bottom three in rushing efficiency, and the usage
46:18isn't even good. Up until the Naji Harris fumble, Cam Scatteraboo only had 52% of the carries, one target. Naji Harris had 42% of the carries, three of
46:29five inside the red zone, plus the two two-point conversion. Um, and yeah, it's it's it's it's not a good role for a
46:39player who doesn't really look as dynam dynamic as he did last year on a bad team. And it's just yeah, you you got
46:46the benefit of two straight wins and which might be the only games the Giants win over the next two months. Uh, so
46:54yeah, I I would sell.
46:58>> I don't know. I don't know if this is the right time to sell. I think you might sell at some point, but dude, he's
47:03got Washington. Yeah, >> this week New Orleans the week after that.
47:06>> Washington's kind of a pass funnel on paper.
47:11>> But it is a shitty defense. Yeah, fair.
47:14Do >> you think I'm selling I'm selling today?
47:16>> Do you think when the Giants are prepping for their their opponent, they go, "Oh man, Washington's a pass funnel." Do you think they know what
47:22that's >> I think they do do that. I think I think that's that's exactly right. I think they notice that they're dead last in
47:28passer rating allowed and they're top five in yards per carry to running backs, whatever it is. And it's, yeah, this is a much e easier path to victory.
47:37>> Okay, I'm going to go on a limb and say there's not a single offensive coordinator in the league that's ever
47:42used the term passfunnel. Not one. Not one. Anyways, >> well, there should be.
47:49>> Quinnon Judkins, I agree with this one.
47:51He finally had a relatively productive day on the ground and through the air.
47:57Uh, sell while you can, I think, would be the the prudent advice here.
48:01>> Yeah. Yeah. And there again, we're trying to pick tricky ones. Um, and there's certainly a pathway for this to blow up in my face. He finally had a
48:11good game. So, to me, it just feels like the perfect time to sell high. Um, but it's possible we should be buying into
48:18this offense being legit, which no one thought could be possible. And maybe we should be buying into this role being good because he was finally involved in
48:26the passing game. He had 17 carries, seven targets, careerhigh by far. That's like Ash and Genty volume. That's excellent.
48:35Um, he's currently the RB 13 by XFP per game. The downside is, uh, who is it? Dylan Samson's going to come back.
48:45>> Scott, he hasn't averaged more than four yards a carry in 15 games.
48:50>> Wow, that's a great stat. Where'd you get that?
48:54>> Uh, it's called research. I don't know.
48:56>> I tweeted it out this morning.
48:57>> Oh, did you actually?
48:59>> Yeah, check my Twitter.
49:00>> That's so funny.
49:01>> It's been over a year since the last time Quinn Sean Judkins averaged at least 4.0 yards per carry in a game.
49:09James Cook has done that 14 times over the same span.
49:12>> Yeah, it was week four last year against the Vikings. October 5th was the date.
49:18>> Yep.
49:18>> Last time he had he averaged over 4.0 yards per carry, >> which is insane if you think about it.
49:25>> Yeah. So >> he another guy on the Najiara spectrum Trent Richardson spectrum.
49:32>> Well, yeah, and he actually doesn't look as good as Scataboo coming off the ankle.
49:36>> Yeah, >> like I still think he he doesn't cut hard off his right foot. It's everything he does is working left to right.
49:42>> Interesting.
49:42>> Yeah, I actually been meaning to ask Jeff about that, but I I forgot. So Aaron Jones next on the list. Uh Jones
49:51is kind of a dog, man. What's going what's what's wrong with Aaron Jones, man?
49:56>> Well, he's he's a highestend bellcow, >> which is awesome. And he's going to be like a fringe RB1 for us this week,
50:05>> but Jordan Mason's going to come back in week seven.
50:08>> And Aaron Jones is 31 years old and like grimaces after every time he takes a tackle.
50:15>> Grimaces, does he actually?
50:17>> Yeah.
50:18>> Yeah, you're right. He he does. Um, yeah. And you you look at like some of the metrics.
50:24>> He gets up off the ground like he's in like lethal weapon three. I'm I'm too old for this [ __ ]
50:32>> He's he's got like five force miss tackles on the season thing.
50:35>> He like he he he gets peeled off of the floor like he's 2D and Looney Tunes after every time he gets T.
50:43>> I mean, it's funny, but you're not wrong.
50:46>> Yeah.
50:47>> Also, when he touches the ball, it's it doesn't yield, >> right? Uh it's like >> right and it's a [ __ ] offense and it's
50:55>> it's a bad bad offense.
50:56>> Yeah. And Jordan Mason comes back and maybe Jordan Mason's just a 30% snapshare guy, but >> yeah, >> for an inefficient running back that
51:03goes a long way.
51:04>> All right, hit his teammate Jordan Addison.
51:07>> I mean, it's just this offense stinks.
51:09And Justin Jefferson comes back. That one's easy.
51:12>> And and Hawk has emerged as Kyler's favorite target.
51:15>> Yeah.
51:16>> Yeah. Edison's dead. Dead.
51:19Uh, all right. We got we got a couple more. What's that?
51:22>> It might be a drop.
51:23>> Yeah, here's some more.
51:24>> The one reason you own him is like he's contingent upside a handcuff if Jefferson goes down.
51:31>> TJ Hawinson was daddy last week.
51:34>> Yeah, these three sell highs were mine.
51:37I This is my contribution to the show today. Malik Neighbors Scott >> coming off of a big-time game, one no one expected. We kind of broke it down
51:45earlier, but he it seems like he's on the tick ticking time bomb protocol with the injury where it's like at any given
51:51point in time he could go on IR because of that shoulder and every hit he takes it presumably gets worse. I don't know.
51:58I I think last this week's performance was totally unexpected for me. I I even told my father Malik Neighbors isn't playable in fantasy. [laughter]
52:06>> Yeah.
52:06>> In a start sit decision we had that blew up in our face. We actually lost our matchup because of that. So, but
52:11anyways, I I would sell high right now while you can.
52:15>> Yeah. And again, heightened injury risk according to all the injury experts, >> right?
52:20>> Where it's like season ending injury.
52:22>> Yeah. You mentioned the separation metrics are low because he's still coming back from the ACL as well. Y >> now presumably he won't be as good at
52:28the catch point. Not going to be dynamic after the catch. There's a lot wrong with the situation. Doesn't have an actual quarterback until JJ McCarthy
52:35starts for them in week seven.
52:37Uh Devon Vele and I put this one on the list. I'm a big Veil believer. I think he's a stud. Uh the tape this year is
52:45outstanding. Even just watched the game from last night. We're recording this on Tuesday for those listening.
52:50Fantastic. Really good player. Fits Tyler Shuck to a like a T or like a glove. I meant to say to a T and I
52:58combined it to a T and like a glove.
53:02That was that was a misstep. a grammar misstep by me. Anyways, but the reason I wanted him on the list for for the sell
53:10high because I don't think you're a believer and I think you believe Jordan Tyson's gonna come back and have a big
53:15role. I do not believe that. So, wanted to kind of get some differing opinions out there. Why why do you like Devon as
53:21a sellh high?
53:23>> Yeah, I think I think Jordan Tyson comes back is you know super dynamic player drafted in round one and so like even if
53:31that's >> is Mai Lemon super dynamic. No, I I agreed. I thought Mai Lemon was a bust.
53:36I like Jordan Tyson.
53:37>> So, you're saying he's super dynamic and he was a round one pick. It sounded like you were conflating those two things.
53:43Okay, gotcha. My bad.
53:44>> And so, yeah, it's just, you know, uh, target share extremely high and it will come down if if Tit Tyson's, you know, a
53:51thing at all. And I I think he will be.
53:52So, they'll they'll at least try and give it a shot. It's also Saints have been running super hot. Um, yeah. I like
54:01I like trading vele.
54:04>> Okay. I >> I disagree with the next one. I I think Manangai has to be a hold. I think there's just way too much upside in this
54:13Bears offense. And you saw last week whether it was DeAndre Swift getting stuffed at the goal line or it was the
54:21fumble or it was both. Manangai was the bellcout and he's also like top three in every rushing efficiency metric. And so
54:30at a bare minimum this looks like I know he's going to be out a while with his thumb maybe a week or two, but it's it
54:37looks like >> who's going to be out a while?
54:40>> Not at a while, but he could be out this week and next week. Kyle Manangi with the thumb injury.
54:47>> Okay.
54:48But it's it's Ben Johnson with the Lions with the David Montgomery Jir Gibbs backfield most valuable backfield in fantasy where it's like yeah both guys
54:58could be like mid-range RB2s at worst if anyone gets hurt goes down league winner and so I think I think Manonga is a hold
55:08and I wouldn't have him sell high personally.
55:12>> Um I I I like to sell high I think. Okay, that's good.
55:17>> Because we're we're presuming you're going to get above market value when we say sell high, right? That's the whole concept. You're selling
55:24>> Yeah.
55:24>> high. You're you're getting a better return than you expect.
55:28>> I think and it's not to call you out for the fourth time today, but like your logic's a little inconsistent when we
55:36did the Raandre Trayvon breakdown. Like Raandre gets benched because he fumbled and you just immediately expect him to get that roll back. Why not DeAndre
55:44Swift? No, I I I I think that's likely, but it's it's weighing the risk versus reward, the upside versus the downside
55:53versus the median. And so, the most likely outcome is this is a committee, but it's the most valuable backfield in fantasy given Ben Johnson's track
56:01record, what we've seen this season. So, at a bare minimum, he's like, "Okay, he's the RB2 or the RB1B or the and and
56:10he's a mid-range RB2."
56:13But if you know, if if he's in the doghouse or if Manangi just beats him out because he's been the more efficient
56:22back, he's been one of the most efficient backs in football, or if he gets the goal line role, which, you know, he got after DeAndre Swift got
56:30stuff. He's also the bigger back. Then there's yeah then you just keep going up the totem pole and then if there's a
56:36DeAndre but I think the same argument holds for DeAndre Swift like I wouldn't sell DeAndre Swift. I >> if anything buy him it's just hey yeah
56:43what happens if Manangi this thumb injury is I don't know he forces him to retire and DeAndre Swift is like right
56:50there with like Bejan and Gibbs even.
56:53>> Okay, cool. Yeah, I I think I think that's fair. I I still I'm a believer that Swift will be the the main dude the
57:01whole season. Um he just got that massive contract extension as well.
57:05>> Uh he obviously has the rapport with Ben Johnson. He was he's got like nearly 20 touches in every game this season. Even
57:11in a game he got benched, he still had 17.
57:13>> I >> the stat I had coming into the week was only two running backs ranked top 12 in XFP every week this season. It was Jir
57:21Gibbs and DeAndre Swift.
57:23>> Wow.
57:24>> Look at that. Yeah. So I, you know, I I'm a believer that Swift is going to retain that role long term. And then so
57:29if you can get plus value from a Nong guy, I I think you go do that. But Scott disagrees. Let us know in the comments
57:34what you think. All right. Your your beloved let's talk about it section.
57:38These guys always these conversations always seem to irritate me. I don't know why, but uh let's start with Kairen Williams. Again, remember the the anti-
57:46Konami theory we talked about? This is true for Kron Williams. Just had 11 catches or something. Matthew Stafford not very mobile. couldn't get anything
57:54going through the air. Let's check it out, baby.
57:56>> Yeah. So, this one's really interesting to me. I want to get your thoughts on it. He had 16 carries and 13 targets. He
58:03has three straight games with at least 80 rushing yards, and he's recorded at least 65 receiving yards in back-to-back games. Uh for perspective, he had zero
58:12games with for uh with 30 receiving yards in 2024. Last year, only one game with 40 receiving yards. So, this kind
58:22of came out of nowhere. Uh, if it sticks, it's super valuable. He started off the year 60% of the backfield XFP.
58:28The next week, 62% of the backfield XFP. And I'm like, see, I told you committee with Blake Cororum.
58:37Week three, 73% of the backfield XFP.
58:40Week four, 86%.
58:42He's back to 2024 usage. Or it's even better. And his efficiency, he's top five and everything. Is this Shawn McVey riding the hot hot hand? Does this have
58:52something to do with Terrence Ferguson going out needing to get Kron Moore involved in the passing game? I don't know. But if this sticks, this is like a
59:01top three fantasy running back moving forward. Fringe top five, something like that. Uh or does it just hey, this is just like a a weird two-eek blip and
59:10Blake Horm is going to get 14 carries next week.
59:14>> It's a great question. I I think some of it might be game script, Scott. So, two competitive games in a row, they played
59:21like crap against both the Broncos and and the Eagles on offense and they really kind of struggled to run the ball
59:29effectively at times. And so, playing from behind in in both those games, I and they did they were behind in pretty
59:36much the entire Broncos game and the entire Eagles game. So, >> yeah. But they also got blown out by the 49ers 7 to 27.
59:44>> Yeah.
59:45the usage wasn't there.
59:47>> Okay. Yeah. I think we've also said we're throwing that game out because of the the context.
59:52>> Yeah, that's true. Yeah.
59:54>> Um, also that's one week. That's that's week one. You you're not seeing teams make adjustments that fast, right? So, you evaluate after a couple weeks say,
60:04"Okay, we're going to be in some closer games than we anticipated. We don't have Miles Garrett on the field. We're down
60:08one of our starting quarterbacks. Aaron Donald's now hurt." I think it's pretty easy to go, "Okay, cool. We're going to adjust our game plan based on what we're
60:16expecting from our team. Now, you see teams do that as they play more games.
60:19So, yeah, I think this could be a game script thing. Do we think maybe we adjust once the Rams defense kicks it
60:26back into shape with Miles Garrett, with Aaron Donald, but for right now, I think they could be in some tricky games. If
60:32they got Buffalo this week, for example, they could very well be behind in that game. And you might see a lot of dump
60:38offs of Karen Williams. I don't think he sustains the production he's currently on. That's insane. But I definitely think it's probably more than what we
60:44saw in the past game the last couple years.
60:47>> Yeah. In the in the Blake Quorum era at least, like I said, in 2024, it was a lead. It might be the best snapshare
60:54ever in fantasy points data history. So, >> yeah. Yeah.
60:59Okay. George Pickins, I we should have had him on the buy low again, personally, but I'm I'm buying Pickins shares.
61:07>> Uh he looks phenomenal still. I think they've ran into a a SWAT like every team they've played this year so far has
61:15been a really high too high deployment team and Pickkins thrives against Single. He's going to see Single a lot more. Also, CD Lamb's playing out of his
61:23mind right now too. Um but yeah, I mean the the role is there for Pickkins for sure. So >> yeah, so he he wasn't shadowed by Derek
61:33Stingley. It's interesting what the Texans did. They played a ton of too high coverage, which is sort of out of the ordinary for them.
61:42>> That's what I just said, by the way.
61:44>> And then Derek Stingley shadowed CD Lamb on perimeter routes. Like that's actually pretty >> No, that's not true either.
61:51>> 60. It was lined up across from CD Lamb on 60% of his >> That's just by proxy where where CD Lamb
61:57lines up.
61:58>> Okay.
61:59>> Pickins mostly on the left side, CD on the right side.
62:02>> Yeah. Well, if if you know anything about George Piggins, uh he destroys single high coverage, not so much too high struggles there. And so, yeah, the
62:12kind of flop makes some sense, but um they were basically tied in targets coming into the week through four weeks.
62:20They're both tied in ass. Um they were tied in targets coming into the week, but then CD Lamb just totally out
62:26alphaed Pickkins 21 targets to Pickkins three. Listen, I know I know George Pickkins isn't going to average 10.1 fantasy points per game for the rest of
62:36the year. Right now, he ranks directly in between Keon Coleman and Juan Del Robinson in fantasy points per game. But is he going to be a league winner? Does
62:44he have that in the range of outcomes?
62:46Like where he's week five on he's going to rank what in fantasy points per game, Brett >> Pickkins?
62:53>> Yeah.
62:56Uh >> 16th.
62:59>> We'll say I'll say top 10.
63:02>> Oh, all right. You're still that bullish, huh?
63:04>> Yeah, very much so.
63:05>> All right, but where does CD Lamb ring?
63:08>> Top five.
63:09>> Top 10. Top 10.
63:10>> All right. You You think it's close? All right.
63:14So then Yeah, he should be a bo.
63:18>> Yeah, I I think so.
63:21Um and he's probably not super hard to trade for right now. I think Pickkins owners are probably frustrated, right?
63:27>> Oh, yeah.
63:28>> Yeah. Um, Jameson Williams, the man who won me a bet. The man who got >> got what you win.
63:39>> I win a cooking segment on the show. I'm going to teach you guys how to cook a little bit. We used to do a show on on
63:44uh First Read, my other podcast, called Trust Me, Bro. And that segment was me teaching the audience how to cook. And
63:51it was a great segment. And so we're doing trust me bro this Friday.
63:55>> And what are you cooking? Grilled cheese.
63:58>> I don't know. We're still collecting data. A lot of the, you know, I put it on yesterday's show to tell me what you
64:03wanted me to do. Um, the early returns are the dudes want to learn how to cook a legit steak, a legit Michelin star
64:10steak. And I think that's probably what we'll do.
64:12>> Nice.
64:13>> Yeah.
64:15Okay. Jameson Williams. Let's Let's talk about him. Why is he on this list? I I wanna I want to help make the case for
64:23you. Um, but also highlight my concerns.
64:27And I I won't I won't do an I hate Jame Williams rant like I did on yesterday's episode because you don't need to go
64:34through that again. Here's how I see it.
64:37He ranks wide receiver 18 by XFP per game. That's great. He's a mid-range high-end wide receiver too. By fantasy points per game, he ranks wide receiver
64:4643, directly in between Malik Washington and Demarcus Robinson. That's awful. He ranks bottom 25th percentile in targets
64:57per route run. Wide receiver 77. He ranks dead last and drops fourth percentile in yards after the catch per reception. That's awful. He leaves the
65:07league and dropped air yards. I want to say that's bad luck. I want to say that's going to regress to the meme, but
65:13he has struggled with drops throughout his career.
65:16He's dropped over 100 air yards, uh, five total drops. That is worth anywhere between an extra 15.3
65:27and 66.4 fantasy points. So, wide receiver 43, just league average drop rate. Yeah, he'd be around wide receiver
65:3618 by fantasy points per game.
65:39Um, we know this Detroit Lions defense is garbage. They know that. We know that. They're going to have to air it
65:47out. Tons of good volume. Sort of like the 2025 and 2026 Dallas Cowboys, the 2025 Cincinnati Bengals. There's a world
65:57here, Brett, where it's not just Jameson Williams as an obvious low, but it's by all of the Lions.
66:05Last year, Jameson Williams averaged 32 routes per game. This year, he's at 40.
66:11That's basically him playing five quarters per game instead of four. Sam Leaporta, he was at 25 routes per game.
66:19Now, he's at 36. So, he's playing what, 5.5 quarters per game compared to his four last year. And so, maybe maybe we
66:27just go all in on the Detroit Lions, Brett, >> and certainly Jameson. Or maybe the move is just add Isaac Tesla off waiverss
66:37because freaking Jame Williams only had seven more receiving yards than Isaac Tesla.
66:43>> Yeah, I I don't think you should do that for Tesla. The the case for J this is the tension you you've always had to
66:51live in with JO where it's very boom bust. He doesn't have like mid-tier outings. It's like >> that's right.
66:57>> Neither.
66:57>> Yeah. So it's it's he's a frustrating guy to have. That's why I never condone you building a roster where he's like
67:03your wide receiver, too. You need a little bit more, you know, week- to week consistency. And consistency is a a swear word in the fantasy circles, I
67:11know. But, um, it's true. He's so boomer bust though, it's very frustrating to deal with. You almost have to play start
67:17and sit with him every single week. I will say this though, I agree with your general thesis. Buy Lions offensive players. That's for sure true. for JO
67:26specifically, it's like I don't know how much value I want to extract from my roster to acquire such a boomer player.
67:33And so I I think maybe he's just a hold for me where but the other side of that is they do have the easiest remaining
67:40schedule left in the league in terms of um past defenses they play. They still play the Tennessee Titans. They still play the Chicago Bears twice. They still
67:48play Tampa. They still play Miami. They still play the Giants. Um, yeah, Green Bay hasn't been very good against the pass either. They still play the Green
67:56Bay twice. So, like it's it's a very favorable schedule for him. I don't know. I just I don't want to tell the listeners to go buy him and
68:04then, you know, he has these runout games where it's like four catches for 40 yards. And eventually he will have a
68:11game where it's like 180 and two, but it's you're going to be very patient to get those.
68:16>> Yeah.
68:17>> So, hold for me. Hold for me.
68:20>> Yeah. And and so this is something we know from uh wins above replacement. Shout out Lucas. The work he's done there is like
68:30it's guys like Jame Williams are really not that valuable. Like if they let's say he finishes wide receiver 20 by fantasy points per game. He's probably
68:40going to be worth like wide receiver 30 in war. That's because you're going to start him in the wrong weeks.
68:47You're going to bench him in in the wrong weeks. you know, he goes off on your bench, he flops when you start him.
68:52So, there's that. Um, but it's also like you get diminishing returns from a 40point game, right? Like you you beat
68:59your opponent by 36 points. Well, like every point, you know, the 35 points beyond the point you needed was wasn't worth it. So, it's
69:11like um the super mega spike weeks actually like aren't that valuable.
69:17>> Yeah. Not in reddraft for sure. So >> yeah, >> Jeremiah Love, this guy is a very strange dude. Very strange guy.
69:27>> I'll let you I'll let you wax poetic on that. But yeah, just Jeremiah Love last week I was like buy low, dude. This is
69:35elite bellcow usage on a back on an offense that's going to rank top three in play volume. his backfield XFP went
69:43from 65% to 76% and then all the way back down to 50%. So, what happened? What did he pick
69:51up a another ankle injury? Um, the comments after the game were very strange. I I really like >> several He spoke several times now and
70:01they've all been weird, right? He talked about how >> he's he just has to accept the fact that this is going to be a really long season
70:08for him. He's just kind of frustrated.
70:12He He was frustrated with his role in in one segment of talking to the media, but then in the next breath, he told the
70:19coaches to make sure they're getting Tyler Algier and Bam Knight more touches. This very very conflicting messaging from from Jeremiah Love.
70:27>> These millennials are so soft. He he doesn't want the ball. What is this?
70:31>> He has absolutely no people skills. Have you watched interviews with this guy?
70:34I've been saying this since the draft, by the way.
70:37>> Very strange dude.
70:39you know, very like Yeah, I don't know. I I've never seen a running back quite wired like this. Typically, these are wide receivers or something,
70:48but um >> it's kind of ironic, too, because like he had he shared a backfield with a round one pick in college who'd like
70:58never got the ball and now he wants Bam Knight getting touches. I feel like he has to be hurt. I feel like this has to
71:04be him saying >> I Yeah, that's the buried lead in the frustr I think that's what he means when I just have to accept it's going to be a
71:11very frustrating season for me.
71:13>> Yeah, >> I think he's talking about playing through the injuries and figuring that out. They've lost some games, right?
71:17They have lost the last three games. I think too got to remember a lot of these college players coming to the league,
71:22they haven't lost like they do in the league. Like Jerem played for Notre Dame. They've lost at most two games in
71:29any season he played there, right? It's like, and now he's he's lost three games in a row.
71:35>> That's crazy.
71:36>> Like Jeremiah Smith will get drafted number one or two overall this coming season and he'll have lost a grand total
71:42of three games in his college career probably.
71:43>> Bro, I don't want to speak this to into existence, but look at how the Cardinals broke Marvin Harrison Jr.
71:50>> Yeah.
71:50>> What if it happens to Jeremiah Love?
71:52>> It's a trash organization. Yeah, it's pro probably going to happen.
71:56>> Yeah. Or maybe they're just not built different like Michael Wilson. Shout out.
72:02>> Shout out >> the goat.
72:04>> So you buying to selling? What are you doing here? What are we talking about?
72:08>> I have no idea.
72:09>> Hold him.
72:11>> Hold him. Cardell Tate. My man went off this week.
72:16Cardinal Tate had more yards this week than all of your Exodia combined, Scott.
72:23>> Yeah.
72:25One of those years, huh?
72:27>> One of those years.
72:28>> I've never experienced this. It's awful.
72:29I hate it.
72:32>> Lost confidence.
72:34>> To be fair, >> man.
72:36>> No, you're not. You're still very confident. Your general takes are still on point. You just missed with the exod.
72:43>> Fantasy football's hard. It used to be easy. This year, it's it's really hard.
72:47Things don't make sense.
72:48>> Maybe this is you reaping what you sowed by calling this the the softest ADP in the last decade.
72:55the fantasy gods wanted to teach me humility and trust me it's it's a lesson I've learned >> it's it's such a long season we we we
73:03don't even know anything yet still to this day >> I know David Montgomery sucks I know that >> fair we do know that [laughter]
73:10>> you know that was that was one of my big lessons learned after the 2025 season is just avoid any offense that could have a
73:17bottom seven offensive line and then I I drafted the running back when the worst offensive line in football >> [laughter] >> who's 31 years [snorts] old.
73:27>> Yeah. Oh man.
73:29>> Bad process, bad results.
73:30>> He's 29. He's 29.
73:32>> But >> sometimes you got to learn lessons the hard way.
73:35>> We buying or selling Carnell tape.
73:37>> Well, yeah. Let me frame it for you. Is is, you know, shout out to my guy Eastston Freeze.
73:43Elite elite beatw writer, like generational talent. Uh out there in Tennessee. Uh he was telling me, he was like, "Bro, he looks incredible." I
73:52don't remember the last time I've seen like a player, you know, rookie, non- rookie come in and just like just look
73:59like different than everyone else. He said like rookie Carnell Tate was tearing things up way more than rookie AJ Brown in practice and uh yeah, but
74:10you know, I had my skepticism over Brian Dable, my skepticism over Cam Lord, but you know, the underlying metrics are incredible.
74:19He's right now the wide receiver six in first read target share.
74:24Um it's one of the best marks ever by a rookie wide receiver. And I really liked Ryan Heath's comment on this where it's like yeah the
74:33situation's not great but it's like hey if Ted McMillan could be a mid-range wide receiver too why can't Tate who you
74:40drafted as like what a fringe wide receiver three. So, um, yeah, I know you're you you're very bullish on Carnell Tate, the talent. Exactly how
74:49bullish should we be for reddraft?
74:52>> It's tough cuz he's got one of the most dire QB situations in the league, if not the most. Cam Ward does not look ready
74:58to play. I think we're heading towards a Bryce Young.
75:02>> Did you see uh Robert Salah say uh he thinks he has PTSD? [laughter] >> No, I didn't see that. That's crazy. He
75:10said he it doesn't sound as bad as that, but he he literally said that. I think he has some PTSD from all the sacks he
75:17took his rookie year.
75:20>> You can't say that. You >> called the Gibs. No, you can't. And now defensive coordinators are they know that that's not good.
75:27>> Uh I'll say what I like about Carnell Tate minus the QB situation. I love the way they're getting him involved.
75:32They're moving him all over the place, playing the X. They're they're, you know, motioning guys underneath him to to change the angles and the leverage
75:40points. Um I he's played a lot of X.
75:45He's getting involved in the the short part of the field. They're running a lot of spot and spacing concepts and he's
75:50just the primary in those. He's got a bunch of intermediate targets that look really separation skills. And then he's got this this connection with Cam Ward
75:58on scrambled drill. That that's truly what makes like a guy like a wide receiver one. It's like when you're that dude, when your quarterback breaks the
76:05pocket and he's just trying to find you on the field, that's great. They have that connection. They they hooked up for
76:11at least two or three of those this past week. They were all big plays downfield.
76:15So, that's that's really exciting to me.
76:17He's kind of doing a little bit of everything. Um the route running looks good. The ball ball control and body track uh man, I just totally botched
76:25that. The body control and ball tracking looks fantastic. Like really like that's what I loved about him coming out.
76:32that's translating where he's making adjustments to the ball in air. Um, look, looks really, really nice. So, big fan. I That said, I don't know. You go
76:40buy him though. Can you buy him with this QB situation?
76:44>> Uh, it depends on whoever has him, what their roster looks like. Is he starting?
76:49What's their record? What's their position of need? Are you strong at that pos? Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. I
76:56this is your guy so you you tell me exactly how bullish but look at the trades being made. Um Zack Charbanet for
77:03Carnell Tate, Rashad Baitman. What what the heck is going on here? DK Metaf for Carninal Tate.
77:08>> Well, yeah, in all of these I would take Carnell Tate, of course.
77:11>> Okay, so he's a bite.
77:12>> Okay, Jaylen Wadd, last guy on here. Let's talk about it.
77:18>> Bro, what's your excuse for week four?
77:20Because he sucked yet again. Week one, you're like, "Oh, these sold out to stop him."
77:23>> Week two, he goes off. No, no, no, no.
77:25>> Week three, they sold out to stop him.
77:26Week four, >> I gave you my I gave you my theory in week three going into week four.
77:35>> Bo Nicks sucks.
77:36>> He does.
77:37>> He's He's always sucked.
77:38>> He does, >> but now the defense sucks and so the opportunities aren't there. Bo Knicks went from leading the league in drop
77:44backs to like 25th in the league in dropbacks.
77:46>> I don't think that really works because like if worse, >> they should be forced to throw more.
77:53No, Scott, that's such an elementary way of looking at it. It's unbelievable at the end.
77:58>> It's directionally accurate. That's typically how it goes.
78:02>> No, it's typically not. When when you talk about building a roster and competing at in all three phases, a a
78:11good defense gets you more cracks at the apple because you're forcing three and outs and you're controlling the time of possession more
78:17>> better position too, which means more red zone drives. So that's another component. Go on.
78:23>> But yeah, so their their offense last year was incredibly inefficient the entire season. They they were like top five in three and outs, top fives in
78:34drives that ended in a punt, but the defense was so good. They forced the most threeandouts or top five three-andouts. They forced the most
78:42punts. They generated a ton of turnovers. So the offense got a lot of cracks at the apple. That's how we took
78:48this really inefficient quarterback in Bon Knicks and and made it work from a fantasy standpoint cuz the volume was so high because he led the league in
78:56dropbacks because he got that opportunity. If the defense is going to be even just say average the rest of the year, he will not have the same
79:04opportunity he had last year, but the efficiency still sucks. This is absolutely crushing Jaylen Wadd. This is absolutely crushing Courtland Sutton and
79:12pretty much everybody else in this offense. And now you've got guys like Pat Bryant who have emerged as a legit target which makes it even worse cuz
79:19it's a three-way competition at, you know, for targets at the receiver room.
79:23Troy Franklin's still on the roster.
79:24Evan Ingram's still a a guy you can scheme mismatches for it. RJ Harvey's a a pass guy. The whole thing just sucks.
79:32You've got five or six miles of the feed and you have an offense that's not efficient that doesn't get a lot of
79:36opportunities because their defense is bad.
79:39>> Yeah. Right now they're bottom 10 in EPA per play allowed. they've been top 10 like each of the last I don't know five
79:45years. Um, you know, I'm not going to necessarily disagree with you, but I'm gonna volunteer.
79:50Um, what I think a bigger issue is, and that's that Dragon Web sucks.
79:58Davis Web, Eli Manning's nickname for him back in the day was Dragon Web. He sucks. This is so embarrassing.
80:05Do you want to know who leads the Denver Broncos in target share?
80:09>> R.J. Harvey.
80:11RJ Harvey.
80:12>> Is that true?
80:13>> RJ Harvey. And so it's like, yeah, it can be, you know, the Bo Knicks is struggling. That's no excuse for why RJ
80:22Harvey is being targeted more than the guy you just traded a first round pick for. It could be the case that play
80:28volume has come down. But on a per play basis, why the heck is RJ Harvey leading the team in target share?
80:35>> Because Bodick sucks.
80:37>> I know. I know.
80:38>> He can't push the ball downfield.
80:40Everything he does is within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
80:42>> Do you do you know how many games Jaylen Wadd has has over 35 receiving yards?
80:48>> Is Is it only one?
80:49>> It's only one.
80:50>> Pat Bryan has three. RJ Harvey has two.
80:54Sutton and Wadd have one. This is so embarrassing. Here's a stat courtesy of Sam Monson. Courtland Sutton has had a pass defense in three straight weeks. I
81:05don't know that any cornerback has a streak like that, which is like, you know, it's going to be an interception, so he has to dive
81:12and bat the ball down.
81:15>> And so, yeah. What is this? Is this a buy like low because there's no >> I don't trust it. I I've And I was the
81:23highest guy in the space on Jaylen Wadd.
81:27>> You and Harmon, a lot of sharp people >> and I I've seen enough.
81:31>> Fantasy is hard this year. What can I say?
81:33>> Yeah, fantasy is hard this I don't I don't trust it, man. I can't I can't reasonably tell you to buy low anymore.
81:38We've been telling you to buy low, but I can't do it.
81:41>> What about R.J. Harvey in the Darren Sprouls role, which we haven't seen in 20 years, >> 15 years.
81:49>> Every time you say R.J. Harvey, I want you to finish that with R.J. Harvey Dent.
81:53>> Why?
81:54>> Do you know who Harvey Dent is?
81:57>> Is he a dentist?
81:59>> Twoface.
81:59>> No, I know.
82:00>> The Batman series.
82:01>> It was a bad joke.
82:01>> R.J. Harvey can't run the football between the tackles to save his life, but he can catch seven, eight passes a
82:06game.
82:07>> He's two-faced.
82:08>> Yeah, Jonah Coleman. Hopefully, hopefully Jonah Coleman could come back and inject some life into this offense.
82:14Be a bellcow or at least just a volume hog.
82:17>> You know what's really embarrassing is they have one of the best offensive lines in the league.
82:20>> Yeah, Bick B is just He's terrible.
82:25>> Is he a Ponzi scheme at this point?
82:27>> Oh, absolutely.
82:28>> You know what's crazy, too?
82:31I go play around in the advanced passing table in data sweetite too. But Bo Nicks have he averages like the fifth or sixth
82:39highest time to throw in the league, but he's got like one of the lowest a dots.
82:43>> Wow.
82:43>> It's hilarious. He's just holding the ball to check it down over and over and over.
82:48>> So frustrating. Anyways, >> yeah, it's also especially bad if you look at Shawn Peyton's track record with backup quarterbacks like Teddy
82:56Bridgewwater, Taesm Hill, Jameus Winston. Yeah, enough said right there.
83:01Taesm Hill, >> dude. AB, absolute like nobody's crushing it from like an EPA perspective and bunch of different stats and you
83:11know, Bo Nicks, it's over.
83:15>> All right, that's it. We did it.
83:18>> Wow. We're ending on a depressing note.
83:19Brett, >> do you want to do you want to throw something positive out there?
83:25>> I don't have anything positive.
83:26>> No, >> it's it's 2026. All the Exodas suck, >> man. We got to get you out of the gutter.
83:33>> I know. I know.
83:34>> You're the man. You know that.
83:35>> Yeah. I appreciate you.
83:38>> So, all right. Listen, that's going to do it for us today. That is your week five trade episode. We will be back
83:45tomorrow with the first half of our start sit guys. Thanks for listening. We are out.

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