0:00All right, let's dive right in. Scott, we have like a million players to talk about today.
0:03>> Whoa, you're not No pleasantries. You're not gonna ask me how I'm doing.
0:08>> Uh, no. No, not today.
0:11>> I enjoy spending time with you.
0:13>> Well, it's of course, Scott. Of course, we enjoy spending time together.
0:17>> This episode today, >> week two, start sit wide receiver tight end.
0:22>> Can we take this from the top, Brett? I was excited to tell you how my day was going. Do you want to hear my Do you
0:27want to hear my uh Sean Connory impression? How about that?
0:29>> Yeah, let's do that. Go ahead.
0:31>> Ah, start [ __ ] It's really We're talking wide receivers. Start [ __ ] I took the
0:40meeting on my my phone and my phone died and so I went to my desktop and I, you know, went into the meeting. I thought I
0:48turned my camera off. I didn't. So, so our developers were just staring at me shirtless for like five minutes like was
0:55this guy naked? What is this guy doing?
0:58I mean, it it was >> Would you like to sit on my lap?
1:01>> Yeah, there you go.
1:03>> I have a GI procedure tomorrow. I have to ingest a number of laxatives tonight and and fast for 24 hours. So, so that's
1:12going to be my night. I'm going to be living on the toilet doing my dynasty rankings.
1:17>> My god, I understand why you wanted to tell me that now. That's uh that's heavy, buddy.
1:22>> All right, cut this out, Trey. Can we start from the top?
1:25>> Are you serious?
1:27All right, we're gonna dive right in.
1:28Let's start with >> Let me let me hear your God.
1:32>> Let me hear your um your Indian Donald Trump impression. I've heard so much about >> Indian Donald Trump.
1:39>> You were talking about this on another podcast that Oh, wait. That was me. That was my That was my We're diving right in. We're going to
1:53hit the start list. Uh Trey, if you want to bring those up. We We're going to start this off with Mike Evans verse
1:58Miami. There's a lot here for me specifically. It just it's a really good matchup. Miami stinks. They're starting, you know, a corner a quarterback. I
2:07didn't know who he was until yesterday and I've already forgot his name. Joshua Jefferson.
2:13But Mike Evans looked awesome in week one. That's the bigger thing. He looked awesome. He still got it. He was still
2:17top of the leaderboard in ass. And uh it's a great matchup. I don't know what more you could want here. I do find it
2:24funny. We're already projecting him wide receiver 10. Scott, I've been saying all off season. The range he was going in was ridiculous considering the potential
2:33output here. Were you out of Mike Evans?
2:35One of your exodias.
2:37>> Yeah. Well, you know, you were saying I I was certainly saying as well. Uh listen, Mike Evans, he was top three in
2:45ass average separation score just like he was in 2025, in 2024, 2023. this is the ascot. No signs of decline. Uh and
2:56if that happens at all, it's probably not going to show up in in week two. Um but yeah, he's an easy wide receiver one
3:03this week. And that's because he's going up against a JV defense in the Miami Dolphins. Like I I think Brock Pury
3:10could score seven touchdowns this week.
3:12This this might be the worst defense we've seen in a decade. Like it's really that bad. I was looking at the advanced
3:18metrics. They were the only defense to play out of base coverage over 50% of the time in week one. They were at 66%.
3:26It's much easier to throw on a defense when they're playing base. And then uh the only defense to pressure the quarterback less than 20% of the time
3:36was the Miami Dolphins all the way down at 6.5%.
3:40And hilariously, that was with them ranking top five in blitz rate. Like this is just like such a totally incompetent defense. Um, yeah, I have to
3:50think, you know, Exodia wide receiver Mike Evans has a has a big game this week.
3:56>> I'm over here cracking up to myself because I said at the top I they have a cornerback he's going to be going
4:02against and I I don't even remember his name and then I took a guess at his name and I was wrong. His name is not Joshua
4:08Jefferson. It's Jason Marshall.
4:11>> Oh, >> so that's hilarious. That really does tell you all you need to know about this thing. Common decency is getting a a
4:17player a person's name right.
4:19>> It's why I'm correcting myself. It's Jason Marshall organ.
4:22>> Do you want to get death threats again?
4:24Like literal >> fifth round.
4:26>> One for those who don't know one I'm saying Travis Han forever. Uh because one person uh threatened to uh cut her
4:37tongues out through our throat. I think it's the Bolivian necktie if I remember correctly. another uh threatened to set set us on fire. Um and yeah, that was
4:48that was our Wednesday.
4:51>> Yeah, I don't want to rehash all that. I love how you got me in trouble. I was saying it correctly. I was avoiding the
4:56the YouTube Karens and the Twitter Karens. You unfortunately drugg us into dangerous territory. All right, Drake London vers Carolina. I'm surprised this
5:06guy's a start. Did you watch the Falcons offense last week? Well, this is this is why I I brought this up is because like
5:13this is kind of surprising and and you know, we don't want to just hit on the obvious ones. You know, I think there
5:19are real, you know, players who are like, I have to sit Drake London because of how nonviable this offense looked and
5:26how, you know, bad everything was for Drake London. I I do think this projection's a little too high, but and by the way, like this isn't just like
5:35your typical start sit show. Like I I think this is like the PhD version and compared to some fantasy football 101's
5:44out there. Fantasy points had the best most accurate projections in the space last year. And so when you see something like this, you know, give us the the
5:53benefit of the doubt here. Um and so yeah, this this looks like the battle of the trash quarterback Cooper Rush, who's
6:00awful and also banged up versus a disgustingly bad defense that just gave up 60 points. Uh, but one unique thing that Fantasy Points has, courtesy of
6:10Fantasy Points data is our access to coverage shell matchups, which has always been a major edge in DFS and in betting. I was talking to a uh guy who's
6:22part of like this pro betting syndicate who said uh his number two biggest edge in football is ladders based on our
6:30schematic matchups. And so this would be one with competent quarterback play. I would have loved to ladder because of the matchup because the Panthers run
6:40cover three at a top three rate. Drake London gets a 60% yards per route run boost against cover three.
6:49>> Are you worried at all about him catching a JC Horn shadow?
6:53>> Uh well, part of what I didn't mention here too is his his usage and alignment was really concerning. Like he excelled
7:00as the big power slat last year. uh week one they just like left him alone on an island aligned to his quarterback's left
7:09and again it like wasn't a real offense.
7:11You had Bejian Robinson with the highest target share of any running back in fantasy points data history. Um what I will say like you know they didn't go
7:20into week one planning to start Cooper Rush. They kind of got blindsided by that that Tua injury. So I I don't know.
7:26I'm It's a player you drafted what top 10. Um, sure the quarterback's a mess, but uh I wouldn't start him like as the
7:37wide receiver 11, but like I'm probably not benching him in any of my leagues.
7:41>> Well, he's still he's still going to be a top 36 guy. Of course, you have to start >> a top 20 guy. Yeah,
7:47>> it's but but maybe this projection's a little too high. For those who don't know, we have our big projection summit
7:53on Fridays where our projections go from great to elite ideally because we're borrowing from Ryan Heath's genius, from Brett's film expertise and uh you know,
8:04the sum of all parts being greater than our whole.
8:07>> To your point, by the way, Drake London in the slot for just 10 snaps total.
8:13That's including run plays.
8:14>> Yeah. So that's that's not great, but >> yeah. Um, producer Trey just dropped an amazing question in the comments or in
8:21the the private chat. Does Drake London dominate cover three because two division rivals spam cover three at some of the highest rates in the league? That
8:31is a great question, Trey.
8:32>> Is it?
8:34>> I don't get it. Was it he just has more experience playing against cover three is what you're saying.
8:38>> No, like are when you say he dominates cover three, are you going by volume stats or efficiency stats?
8:43>> No, efficiency of course. It said he gets a 60% yards per route run boost against cover three, which is >> yeah, insane. And And so yeah.
8:53>> Cool. Well, then uh I digress.
8:57>> Christian Watson versus Who are you talking to?
8:59>> Well, I don't think I'm going to use counting stats, please.
9:02>> You you tried to use counting stats in your argument against the Lions secondary yesterday. They gave up 410 yards to Tyler.
9:09>> That's a lot of yards. Yeah.
9:11>> On 75 dropbacks. It's not a lot of yards. It was still below average yard for attempt allowed.
9:16>> That counts for fantasy is >> it's not predictable is the point.
9:20>> A key variable, but it doesn't matter as much here.
9:23>> It's it it's not predictable was the point. You can't just predict that's going to happen again. Anyways, moving on. Christian Watson versus the New York
9:30Jets. Wide receiver 13 is his projection right now. 13.5 fantasy points.
9:37Yeah, I mean Watson looks great. I'm a little worried about how the Packers are just completely imploding though.
9:45They've lost six games in a row and they they've I think they were winning by in five of them in the fourth quarter. It's
9:51just the wheels are just completely falling off on this team. It's crazy.
9:57>> No. Uh >> what do you mean?
10:00>> The wide receivers just went nuclear up against a great Brian Flores defense.
10:08Christian Watson had six catches on seven targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns.
10:14>> What do you mean by nuclear?
10:17>> Define nuclear.
10:18>> No team had more wide receiver fantasy points than the Packers last week against the Vikings.
10:24>> It's crazy because then they only scored 22 points.
10:28>> Yeah, I I this is a fantasy football show. This isn't a real NFL or against the spread show. I'm a I'm aware, Scott,
10:36but some trends stay trending and the Packers are a team that seems to be imploding.
10:42>> You don't think that impacts the overall production of the team? They didn't do >> what you said on our last episode is
10:48like their offensive line really struggled in run blocking and they don't have Josh Jacobs. Yeah. Well, that's going to >> their line struggled in general, not
10:55just in run blocking.
10:56>> That means they should lean more pass heavy. If their defense sucks without Mika Parsons, that means they should lean more pass heavy. All of that is
11:03good for Christian Watson.
11:04>> Who's Mika Parsons?
11:06>> Micah Parsons.
11:07>> There you go. Yeah. Yeah. I get the pass rate stuff, but like the offensive line is really really bad. I don't know. I'm
11:15not I'm just picking your brain here. I want you to to cover all the angles.
11:19>> Yeah. No, Christian Watson's a fringe wide receiver. One this week. Uh that honestly might be the case in, you know, any neutral at worst matchup. He
11:29had an 80% route share last week.
11:31Throughout his career, he averages 16.9 fantasy points per game in games with a 75% route share or higher. Uh he went
11:40nuclear last week. This this guy's really good at football and this is something we've been telling you for a really long time. Uh he just needed we
11:47needed to do away with that gross four-way, fiveway wide receiver rotation. We needed Green Bay to move from bottom three and in and how um pass
11:57heavy they were to more middle of the pack. We're seeing that. Um, so I I love me some Christian Watson this week.
12:04>> Jaylen Wadd verse Jacksonville, wide receiver 15 projection 13.3 fantasy points.
12:10What do you got on Wadd?
12:12>> Well, yeah. I I'm going to start it off with you. What did Steve Spagnolo do to shut him down last week?
12:18>> He he doubled him and bracketed him, >> right? So So week one shouldn't shouldn't really matter here, right?
12:25>> Uh, correct. I mean, teams aren't going to do that. Speculo is one of the most aggressive game plan guys in the league.
12:31Like if he wants to take you out of the game, he will.
12:34>> Yeah. And it was really funny that he did take Wadd out of the game because the the broadcast was talking about how
12:39Shawn Peyton told his wife to draft Wadd and Fantasy this year. Um yeah, he had one catch on three targets, but still
12:4679% route participation and now he gets a Jaguars defense. That was a top three matchup for outside wide receivers last year. So, you're starting waddle. You're
12:56not overreacting to uh dude, Steve Spagnol is awesome. He should be a head coach very soon. Um >> he won't be.
13:04>> He won't be, but he should be.
13:06>> Um Wadd not playing as much on the outside as we thought though, right? At least through one game. Isn't that true?
13:14Primarily in the slot in week one versus Kansas City.
13:16>> Pretty good.
13:18>> I know you said Jacksonville was a top three matchup for outside.
13:21>> Oh, okay. Okay. I mean, they were top seven for all wide receivers, >> right? Right.
13:26>> Yeah. And I, you know, I don't think Jordan Lewis is um I don't think he has the play style to contend with Jaylen
13:32Waddle in any type of man or match coverage either. And that's that's going to be the primary matchup for him. So,
13:37definitely a different vibe than last week where you know, Kansas City can be suffocating with the way they use their secondary. Jacksonville not really like
13:44that. So, and we're looking for a big bounceback from Denver, too. Right. That opening was uh atrocious on many levels.
13:54Uh George Pickkins verse Washington.
13:56We're projecting as wide receiver 16 at 13.2 fantasy points. This is one of my favorite starts of the week. I went on
14:01John Hansen's Visen show yesterday and touted him. George Pickkins is a cover three killer. Dan Quinn is a cover three defensive play caller. I know he was
14:11only in cover three 18% last week.
14:13That's not going to continue. That's that's a that's an outlier. Um, Pickkins also great against cover two, but more importantly, Scott, he's going against
14:22two tiny quarterbacks and Mike Serill and A Meek Robertson. Pickkins, the physical ball winner type that he is, th those guys literally cannot contend with
14:31him. Um, I I love like I I think we're projecting him way too low. Personally, I'd have him as a wide receiver one this
14:39week.
14:40>> Yeah. So, I agree with you. We actually have CD Lamb wide receiver four in our projections. George Pickkins wide receiver 16. Brett would flip him. I
14:48would at least pinch them. Um, yeah. So, last week was really interesting. George Pickkins led all wide receivers in air yards loss due to drops with 51. That
14:59was more than he had all of last year.
15:01So, it was like a total fluke outlier performance. Uh, he had a minus 5.1 fantasy points over expectation. That was his worst mark since joining the
15:10Cowboys. Uh, and it's a good matchup. uh the Commander top seven matchup for wide receivers since the start of last season. And like you said, height
15:19advantage going to George Pickkins. Uh one of the best contested catch guys in the game. So yeah, I I'm I'm with you
15:26here.
15:26>> Commanders also have no pass rush. Dak's going to have time. Should be a much better week two for for Dak and this
15:33passing offense that we were so bullish on in the offseason.
15:37Uh same game. We're hitting Terry McLaren verse Dallas. I think Dallas is going to be a secondary we pick on all
15:43year long. This defense looked totally out of sorts. Did you see the footage of Christian Parker, their new DC, like in
15:50heated arguments with his players on the sideline?
15:53>> Oh, it's not good.
15:54>> Freaking week one.
15:55>> It's like that's like two co-hosts arguing constantly over every minor thing. No one wants a good sign. It's a little different because in in football
16:04there is a power dynamic between coaches and players that are sometimes that can when those dynamics get skewed or awkward that is like a culture ruiner,
16:13right? And I'm not I'm not saying the culture is ruined. I'm just saying that's like not a good sign to have that
16:19happening in week one. And Jan Barnum, who's a rookie, is arguing with his defense. How often do you see a rookie
16:25going toe-to-toe with his coordinator or T producer?
16:30>> Trey for pulling this up so quickly on the screen. Yeah, that's not a good look at all.
16:33>> Yeah, not a good look. And you never you don't ever see rookies act like this with like because usually they they
16:38understand they're rookies and they have to pay their dues, right? So, very surprising. It It obviously speaks to some of the dysfunction we saw on tape
16:46as well. Um, but I I love Terry McLaren in this matchup. Uh Don Bland is like one of the most riskreward cornerbacks.
16:54He takes a ton of risks and as a result he gets absolutely cooked. Now this is my take despite the fact that we saw
17:02video today of Terry McLaren jogging routes through practice while Stefon Diggs was ripping on that full speed and >> it's not good. Not a good look.
17:11>> I don't know. I don't know.
17:14There is a mantra you play how you practice, right? But, uh, how much do we care about that?
17:21>> Yeah, I just I just dropped it in here for Trey to pull that on the screen.
17:24That that wasn't great. Yeah. So, I don't know if you missed it, but uh, you know, Stefan Diggs and Antonio Williams
17:30really assmogged Terry McLuren in week one. McLaren, I I talked to someone who who's who's a pretty good film guy. Not
17:39on your level, but he said Stfan Diggs looked washed in week one. And then yeah, Diggs and and their new rookie
17:45were, you know, top three in average separation score. Looked incredible.
17:51Really high yards per route runs.
17:53>> Who said Diggs looked washed?
17:55>> No, Mclloren looked washed.
17:57>> You said Diggs. Okay, thank God. Say Diggs absolutely did not look washed.
18:00>> Diggs looked incredible. Mclloren looked washed, which is not good. And you saw that on that that practice clip that we
18:05just showed. I But what here's what I'll say is like if you drafted McLaren, you drafted him pretty high. Uh, week one
18:12was a worst possible matchup against the Eagles who historically have his number.
18:16Vic Fangio typically sells out to stop an opposing team's number one. Philly has been a bottom five matchup since the start of last season, but this is an
18:25elite matchup. The no defense has given up more fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers than the Cowboys since the start of last season. So, this
18:33looks to me like a phenomenal get right spot. If it's another down game from Terry McLaren, then yeah, it's time to
18:39panic.
18:40Um, do you know, fun fact, Stefan Diggs is only a year older than Terry McLaren?
18:47>> Yeah, >> that's crazy.
18:49>> Yeah, >> Diggs has been in the league significantly, like four years longer, it seems like. Anyways, all right, moving on. Garrett Wilson
18:58verse the Green Bay Packers. This is We're listing this as a start projecting him wide receiver 22, 12.7 fantasy points. Did you watch Keshan Nixon
19:09just totally just put Justin Jefferson in a body bag >> last week when Justin Jefferson scored 26 fantasy points?
19:19>> Okay. Yeah, contested catches, but I'm just saying. I mean, >> so the coverage is tight.
19:26>> Really, this is the new Jarry Alexander.
19:31>> I mean, might be. He's a good player >> and he I mean he had he had Justin Jefferson in hell last week.
19:39>> So here's what I'll say. Uh I thought Gino looked looked really good. I thought the offensive line really impressed me. And even Frank Reichd who
19:46I was very skeptical of coming into the year. Garrett Wilson had a 38% first read target share. That's excellent.
19:53Green Bay bottom 10 in pressure rate.
19:55They're a bottom 10 defense whenever Micah Parsons is not on the field. Th this is also a defensive coordinator who loves cover four. Garrett Wilson, a top
20:05three wide receiver in targets per out run against cover four since 2024.
20:12>> Yeah. Uh Justin Jefferson negative ass last week. Just a 10% win rate. That's uh those are low numbers for that guy.
20:19>> All right. Well, >> just saying.
20:21>> Yeah.
20:22>> No, I you know, I think Garrett Wilson's a fine start this week. I actually picked the Jets to beat the Packers, so
20:28>> Yeah. Well, maybe maybe not the DFS must play uh he looked like just because of this tough quarterback matchup. Are you
20:35expecting a shadow?
20:38>> Not necessarily.
20:39>> Okay. Well, then it's 40% of his rounds.
20:44>> Yeah. Yeah, that's true. That's a good point. All right. Luther Burden, Chicago Bears wide receiver versus the Minnesota Vikings. We are projecting him as wide
20:51receiver 27. Just 12.1 fantasy points.
20:56Where was he drafted in fantasy leagues?
20:59Your Exodia Luther Burton >> around five >> like wide receiver what?
21:05>> 23.
21:07>> Okay. So, we're projecting him under that already, but you're calling him a start here.
21:12>> Well, that might have been my rankings.
21:13My rankings might have. But, um, yeah, I mean, this is an Exodia wide receiver. I think Chris is too low on him. I'm more
21:19bullish. He had a 68% route share. That was a careerhigh, most on the team by four. He had 2.42 yards per route run uh
21:28on a team that scored 60 points and now he goes up against the Vikings who just gave up 253 yards and two touchdowns to
21:36to wide receivers in week one. So, um yeah, I I'm I'm excited. Still very bullish on Luther Burton. Khalif Raymond, it was the Khif Raymond show in
21:46week one. I don't think that's going to continue. I think that was just a function of, you know, missed practice time due to injuries for for Luther.
21:54How how uh how's Khalif Raymond performed against Brian Brian Flores in the past?
22:01>> You tell me, Brett.
22:02>> I I actually don't know. I'm authentically asking. I It's just a question I want answered because the Flores defense is one that it takes a
22:10lot of preparation for. And so it seems like having a guy that's got experience beating that it would be good. And and
22:16the Bears were not good against Flores last year. So anyways, I think this is a great matchup for Luther Burton personally. Khalif Raymond uh had a
22:24total of five yards through two games against Flores last year.
22:29>> Last year. Yeah. But he he was barely playing last year. Injuries plus Tesla.
22:33>> Uh week 18.
22:35>> The the year before that 11 yards.
22:37>> Okay.
22:38>> In one game and then the other game three catches, 39 yards, and a touchdown.
22:43>> Nice. Yeah. So, I think this is a great matchup for Burton. Um the way Minnesota plays on defense, they are going to line
22:49up and you double mug the A gaps. It's going to leave the middle of the field open at times. Luther Burton is playing
22:55the primary slot role. He will be the the hot on a lot of these plays. If Caleb gets to the hot, Burton should
23:02have a massive day because there will be space for run after catch opportunity. I think you're going to have to see a more
23:08disciplined Caleb in this game. Um, just by nature of the way the Vikings play.
23:13Um, I also, we didn't talk about on yesterday's show with the quarterbacks.
23:16I also think Caleb could have a million rushing yards in this game, but >> Oh boy. Is he gonna break fantasy
23:23football this year, Brett?
23:25>> I don't know. I don't know.
23:27>> What are you going to put on the jersey and and paint your nails? How about that?
23:31>> Not painting the nails and putting on the jersey. But I did see a hilarious comment that I agree with. I would
23:35rather paint my nails pink than wear a Caleb Williams jersey. That actually is true. So, >> okay.
23:43Maybe, maybe we'll let the YouTube commenters decide.
23:46>> No, the bet's already made. The bet's already made. Uh >> well, we could double down now.
23:51>> If if if Caleb Williams finishes as top three fantasy quarterback, then you have to paint your nails, too.
24:00>> Uh I'm not willing to make that bet at the moment.
24:02>> Okay.
24:03>> Because you're scared and you're you have a very delicate sense of your masculinity.
24:09>> Very very true. Clearly, that's true. Uh J Jaylen Coker vers the Atlanta Falcons.
24:14Wide receiver 28 11.8 fantasy points.
24:17Projection uh where were we where did we project Coker last week? I think that's a fun question.
24:25>> Probably like 35.
24:28>> Okay. So it hasn't changed too much.
24:30>> Well, well actually maybe even I think industry I know we were higher than industry consensus, but I know industry consensus was probably like wide
24:38receiver 40. So it is a pretty big jump.
24:40I I I picked this one though as a conversation topic. So all across the industry, people are saying uh Jaylen Coker is the real wide receiver one. Ted
24:51McMillan's cooked because if you look at their last six games together, um they have the same amount of targets, but Jaylen Coker averages 64 yards per game
25:02to McMillan's 51 and 15.8 fantasy points per game to Mc McMillan's 9.9. And so people are like, "Oh, Coker's the clear
25:12one." One thing I'll say, though, is McMillan was dealing with like a serious foot ankle injury in five of those six
25:20games.
25:20>> Yeah.
25:21>> So, um I don't I don't know that that really means anything. I will say Coker popped for me last week as having a
25:29really good schematic matchup. He also like ran really hot. He was top five in air yards and zero of those were
25:37uncatchable. And I don't think anyone else in the top 18 could say that. Um, so he got a little bit lucky with that.
25:45It's also, but we have him as a start this week. We have him, we have Ted McMillan 12.9 fantasy
25:55points. We have Jaylen Coker 11.8, so it's very close. And like I'll agree with that as someone who's kind of defending McMillan here. Um,
26:04this is a great matchup for Jaylen Coker. Uh the Falcons play single high coverage at the highest second highest rate in the league. Coker gets a 69%
26:15yards per route run boost, 47% target per route run boost. Uh he's also much better against man coverage. That's why I liked him last week. Um and the
26:24Falcons on paper, you know, they were easy top seven matchup for wide receivers last year.
26:30>> He's also going to be going against a rookie quarterback in Avon Terrell. So, I think that's a uh that that's the
26:36biggest thing in his favor.
26:37>> Wait, the Falcons have two Terrells?
26:39>> Yeah, they're brothers.
26:40>> Oh, that's sick.
26:42>> You didn't know that?
26:43>> The Bash brothers on their defense.
26:45Yeah, that's cool.
26:46>> I wouldn't call them the Bash brothers.
26:47They're small and they play corner.
26:49>> Yeah.
26:49>> But yeah.
26:50>> Well, well, that's part of it, too, is is is I I'm think AJ Terrell is going to shadow McMillan, >> which would leave him on the I guess
26:59inferior brother most of the time.
27:01>> Inferior just out of youth. He's young.
27:03He's very young. He's a rookie. He's played one game. So, yeah, I I think that's a very winnable match up for
27:08Coker. But also, the thing going back to the tech conversation, you see this a lot when you have a true number one wide receiver and then like
27:16we're not really sure about the rest of the supporting cast. Sometimes defenses give a lot of attention to that player knowing there's not much behind him and
27:25then somebody emerges to be the second guy. And I think that's what you've seen with Coker. I think defenses will just
27:30start to adjust and we'll see T McMillan not get so much rolled coverage.
27:34>> Well, is that what he got in week one?
27:35>> That's what he got at the end of last year completely. Yeah, >> absolutely.
27:41So, it's not always man. I'm not saying it's a a straight double, but you will see, you know, defenses rolling extra
27:47zone defenders his way, bracketing him a lot more, and you know, they they'll play him a little bit differently than they will a different team. So,
27:56all right, last start of the day at wide receiver. Deario Douglas vers Pit. This is my ad. We're projecting him in wide
28:03receiver 50, 9.6 fantasy points. Why aren't we talking about him? I I like him as a top 36 guy. person.
28:10>> We're not talking about him because you you you skipped over sits and went went to our let's talk it out section
28:18>> or or or here's some nuance or some like let's let's >> 360 windmill windmill dunk all over Chris.
28:27>> Look at the show sheet, brother. I added Deario Douglas to the start section. I >> he was he was already in our let's talk
28:32it out section.
28:32>> I know, but screw that.
28:34>> Okay. All right.
28:35>> Let's talk it out then.
28:36>> Okay.
28:38Demario Douglas >> is our wide receiver 49 by our projection. So that means he's not quite a start. He's not even a what the heck
28:46flex play. Romeo Dobs is a start. He's our wide receiver 35. And I added this to the sheet in the let's talk it out
28:54section because I don't agree with this.
28:56I think, you know, Chris Wacket, you know, beats me more times than not when I disagree with him. Uh he's just that
29:03nice. Um but I'm looking at the matchup.
29:06The matchup's great. Steelers gave up the fourth most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers last year. Um it's a great schematic matchup for
29:15Deario Douglas who's much better against cover three which Patrick Graham plays a ton of. Uh five of his seven targets in
29:22week one came against cover three and all throughout his career he's been much better against cover three. He also really looked like the guy after AJ
29:31Brown went down. He led the team in second half route participation. And then I talked about my sources. I I have
29:37a buddy who was a Houston Texans beat.
29:40He goes relocates to New England and he wouldn't shut up about Demario Douglas saying he's he's the guy now that AJ
29:47Brown's out. Romeo Dobs uh has been behind Deario Douglas and skill almost all of camp. Blah blah blah. So I I and
29:58I knew you were going to agree with me.
30:00So uh that's why I put it on here and and now I'll give you a chance to do just that.
30:04>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you covered most of it. And then the the cherry on top is he's primary matchup's going to be
30:10Jaylen Ramsey. Jaylen Ramsay's completely cooked.
30:13>> Yeah.
30:14>> Not not the coverage player he used to be. And so, um, inside of that cover three, like he's going to be matched up
30:22with the nickel pretty much on every play. I think this is a phenomenal matchup all the way across the board.
30:28And then the role he's going to get should be excellent. Um, I think he's like he's a top 36 guy to me. That's why
30:34I moved him to the start list. You just ignored me. So, I even highlighted a green.
30:40>> A top what? A top what?
30:42>> A top 36 guy.
30:43>> Yeah.
30:44>> Yeah. The one thing I'll say though about Drake May though is I I call him the Mao Dong of quarterbacks. There's a
30:50story like in high school uh he would always like run to the sideline at halftime and and ask what every wide
30:58receivers's numbers were. He wanted to make sure everyone felt involved. And even like last year, dude, Stefon Diggs was clearly the best wide receiver on
31:05the team. And even he would have a big game and then he'd disappear for a while and then he'd have a big game and they
31:11then it'd be someone else who like stinks, you know? It's like uh Sholess M. Hollands and like have And so like I
31:19I don't know. I I I can never feel all that confident, but uh I do like Demario Douglas more than Romeo Dobs this week.
31:26I'll say that.
31:27>> Yeah. For absolutely absolutely.
31:30All right, let's go back to the sits now.
31:33>> Well, no, no, let's let's stick to the let's talk it out because if if you're if you have Deario Douglas as a start, I
31:40have to have Parker Washington as a start.
31:43>> Yeah, >> Chris, what's what's going Just take the L, Chris. Long over. You should have taken this L months ago. You have Parker
31:52Washington.
31:53>> Especially think about the matchup for Denver.
31:55>> I know >> like Pat Pat Certan's going to be on BTJ. That's right.
31:59>> That's a That's a shadow that he's gone.
32:01Just write him out of the game plan. Sit him.
32:04>> Sit him all day. Uh and we just saw Denver fail to tackle a human player in that game. They didn't
32:11>> What? They missed 28 tackles total.
32:13Parker Washington is an absolute demon after the catch.
32:16>> Yeah.
32:17>> You think Rashi and Kelsey looked good >> against Denver? What? Parker Washington's going to bludgeon them to death.
32:22>> Yep.
32:23>> So, >> listen, he he was awesome last week. He had 19.3 fantasy points and 20.3 XFP just in the first two quarters of this
32:32game, which was a blowout. He was targeted on 40% of his routes. He had a 33% target share. That was twice as much
32:39as any other Jaguars player in the first half over his last nine healthy games since Jacksonville's buy. Uh 17.7 fantasy points per game. And it's not
32:49just Patrick Certain on BTJ putting him on Riley Moss or in the slot, but it's also a very manheavy Broncos defense.
33:00Parker Washington crushes man defense nearly three yards per route run. Uh so yeah, Chris refuses to take the L. He refuses to say, "Hey, you know what?
33:09Scott was right and I was wrong." And let me just tell you, I'm not wrong. I I was right. and Parker Washington. Not a
33:17low-end wide receiver three like Chris's projections suggest, but probably a high-end wide receiver, too.
33:24>> Well, and like let's not forget Trevor Lawrence is also apparently now a T1000.
33:29>> Yeah.
33:30>> Terminator. You know what I mean? So, like >> look at how far we've come.
33:33>> I know. I know. It's unbelievable. So, >> all right. Sticking with we're still in the talk it out section. Let's go. Acha
33:40Eggbuka vers Cleveland, >> bro. Amech Buuka had like such a quiet week one, but this is like the hipster
33:49fantasy analyst like call of the the century where it's Jacob Gibbs, Ryan Heath, who are like the two young guys, like elite elite analysts I love. Two of
34:00my favorites, but like they're the two young guys. They call me a boomer.
34:04They're all in on a Buoua and they're they're probably laughing in Chris's face at this wide receiver 30 projection. They are so bullish on a a
34:13mecha Ibuka. Jacob thinks Jacob said he would rather have Igbuka than Drake London rest of the season. Um part of this is because he's getting motion at
34:22the snap uh like London did last year with the same OC. Um and so that's a nice little cheat code for his
34:29efficiency. He didn't have a huge box score because the Buccaneers turned it over so much. They barely ran every two plays and like Baker threw behind the
34:39line of scrimmage at like by far the highest rate in his career. But he still had six targets to Chris Godwin's one
34:46specifically on plays with pre- snap motion. Chris Godwin looked washed. You said that his ass was awful. And so I don't know why he's like I'm not as
34:56bullish as as the young guns, but uh I'm nowhere near as bearish as Chris.
35:04I'm a little pet. I don't think Cleveland's defense is that good. I know you think so. So maybe that's what's going on here. What What do you think?
35:12>> I haven't even talked to Chris about this, so I don't think he's factoring my Browns defense take at all. Uh I don't I
35:18don't know. I I like IA in this matchup quite a bit. I would probably steer clear of, you know, Godwin and and McMillan, but I
35:28like Eggbuka. I think the role is going to be great long term. I don't hate that London take. I don't I said I don't hate
35:34it. I don't necessarily love it, but I'm I'm scared enough of the Falcons that I could see over London season rest of
35:40season. So, but wide receiver 30 seems disrespectful to me.
35:44>> Yeah.
35:45>> So, I don't know.
35:48Um, >> we we'll have to bully Chris on our Friday projections.
35:51>> Yeah, I don't know that he's a start though, Scott. But I think >> Oh, he's definitely a start.
35:55>> Definitely a start.
35:56>> Definitely a start.
35:58>> And Chris Godwin is a drop if he has a really bad game this week.
36:02>> Yeah, I think if you have auka, you have to play him for sure. Yeah, Godwin looks washed washed.
36:08>> Yeah.
36:08>> Like looks really bad.
36:10>> Um, we gave him benefit of the doubt last year because he's coming off that injury, but I doesn't look any better to
36:15me.
36:16>> Yeah. All right. Uh, Matthew Golden, last guy to talk about on this list.
36:20>> Uh, he had a career-high 29% target share. That was also a team high, as was his 87% route share.
36:27>> Um, dude, he he kind of looked good, too. And this is what we always said like Matt Laflur right after Ben Johnson
36:33is like the second best guy at scheming receivers open. I think they lean more pass heavy. Um, and so yeah, I I have
36:43Chris W Christian Watson as a start, but Matthew Golden, one of the best like basketball guys you could have drafted.
36:49People really rode him off after a bad rookie season, but this looks to be a really valuable role now that they've
36:54done away with that that fiveway wide receiver rotation we were talking about with Dantavian Wix and Romeo Dobs.
37:00>> Now they're just doing a fiveway tight end rotation.
37:02>> Yeah, >> which is disgusting. But yeah, I like Golden here for sure. Golden. It's interesting because he's playing more X
37:10than anything else. And he's kind of a smaller guy. So, but his release package is just is that nasty. It doesn't really
37:17matter that he's smaller. He's going to crush you. Got a little Stfan digs to him, actually. It's kind of It's kind of
37:21what I see when I watch him. So, >> wow.
37:23>> I think that's a good thing.
37:25>> Um, should we move on to some sits? We got We got to get moving here, Scott.
37:29Like, this we can't have the show go.
37:31>> I'm having a good time. I don't know why you're trying to rush me.
37:33>> I'm not trying to rush you. I'm just saying YouTube commenters who are hilarious by the way. Big big fan of
37:39YouTube commenters better than Twitter reply guys by far. Um >> Oh, for sure.
37:44>> If if you Why is Why is Brett trying to rush us? Should we be faster? Should we be slower? Let us know in the
37:51>> I'm just being mindful of our listeners time. You know what I mean? They >> We're having a good time. Why Why are
37:56you trying to crash the party?
37:57>> The start sit episode, Scott, is is a little bit more information gathering. a little bit more. Okay, I got to know
38:02what to do for my fantasy lineups.
38:04>> Well, you just hate the start set format. You want to change it next week.
38:07You want to go game by game and >> Yeah. I want to give them more >> game by game. Talk every position.
38:13>> Yeah, that's You think that's going to that's going to take longer than than this show?
38:17>> Nah. Nah. Nah.
38:19>> All right. You're sitting Rashi Rice.
38:20This is counter take to um one John Hansen and one Christopher Wet. John Hansen does not like Rashi this week, I
38:28don't think. Actually, let me double check that. or sorry, he does like Rashi this week. Chris likes Rashi this week.
38:34You're saying sit the man. We're projecting wide receiver nine, but sit the man.
38:38>> Well, bro, I should have put him in the let's talk it out here. But like >> I saw Chris's wide receiver 9 projection
38:45and my jaw dropped on the floor. Like that is this is again Chris refusing to take the L on me. I like I no one was
38:53lower in the industry on Rasheed Rice than I was. Uh he did absolutely he was awful last week. Uh career lows for
39:02targets per route run and yards per route run. He had one touchdown on a broken tackle screen that should have went for only two yards. It looked like
39:10so like all of his production came as part of this manufactured role. He averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game on screens last year. And yet in week one
39:19he had fewer screens than Kenneth Walker. And so that's what I kept saying with Eric Benemy now instead of Matt Nai
39:25is like I I think they do away with that fake gadgety role that didn't even work.
39:29We pulled it up. The Kansas City offense was much more efficient when Rasheed Rice was off the field than on it. And
39:36and so yeah, I like I think my pre-draft analysis was right that he was one of the worst picks he could have made.
39:44People are like, "Oh, well, he just got shadowed by Patrick Certain." No, he didn't. He had like six routes lined up
39:50against Patrick Certain. The one thing you could say is Denver's very manheavy and and Rashi always sucks against man eats against zone. But even that I I
39:59feel like is wishful thinking. One of the worst asses on the week, Brett. And he's always had a bad ass. So if when
40:05you take away his screen role, there's really nothing else. It's just a guy who can't separate.
40:11>> When you are a badass, you you can have a badass.
40:16>> You like that? What is he a badass at?
40:19The stupid screen.
40:20>> Phenomenal run after catch guy.
40:22>> Pretty good at the catch point as well.
40:24There's there's more to receiver play than separation, Scott.
40:27>> Yeah, I >> separation is also a result, not a skill.
40:30>> Yeah. And by the way, uh no quarter no quarterback has more passing yards and touchdowns on throws behind the line of
40:38scrimmage than Patrick Mahomes and he's like 3x anyone else almost. Yeah.
40:41>> So that that's always been a big part of his game and and the Kansas City Chiefs.
40:45But >> also, >> uh, I think I think he existed because they had no run game and he was their extension of the run game and now they
40:52have an elite run game and he's unnecessary.
40:55>> What if I told you that the Indianapolis Colts have over the LA their last five games, so week one plus the last four
41:02from last year, have given up the second most yards to the slot, the second most yards per target, yards per reception.
41:10They've given up uh seven inside the 20 targets to the slot over the last five games. Does that change your take at all?
41:20>> No. No. Because I think this was the worst one of the worst draft picks you could make at cost. And I think I'm
41:26right and I think everyone else is wrong.
41:27>> But you're calling him a sit, which means you don't think he's a top 36 guy.
41:31>> I I'll tell you what, you got to split the difference. you gotta and and he's and startard him because you know Chris
41:38if Chris has him wide receiver nine and I have him wide receiver 40 then you could take the middle ground on that.
41:44>> Okay.
41:46Okay. So not >> I just wanted to say it with my chest out.
41:48>> Gotcha. Okay. I love that about you. All right. We've already talked about a little bit. Brian Thomas Jr. versus the
41:53Denver Broncos. He's going to catch more than likely catch a certain >> He's also banged up. That's that's the other >> certain shadow while banged up. Uh not
42:01pretty. That's uh you know what's crazy?
42:05Kansas City didn't even target Certain in coverage on Monday. They're just like screw that. Right. I I for my money he's
42:12still the he's the best corner in football. I think he's better than Gonzalez. I think he's better than Witherspoon. I think Certain is the
42:17freaking man. Deserves a raise actually.
42:19>> Yeah.
42:20>> But I you could sit him just for that alone though.
42:24>> Yep.
42:25>> Carell Tate versus Philadelphia Eagles projecting as wide receiver 46 9.8 fantasy points. I think that's even generous. Scott Cam Ward looks like he
42:35might be the worst number one overall pick quarterback in a really long time.
42:42>> Yikes.
42:43>> Yeah.
42:44>> Damn.
42:44>> Yeah. It's really it's it's tragic, too, cuz there there might not be a player I want to root for more than Cam Ward. He
42:50just seems like such a cool dude, such an awesome guy. So, hopefully he gets it together. I'm rooting for you, Cam. But
42:56the film's been ugly so far. And Brian Dable is a Ponzi scheme. This is what I was telling you when I was trying to
43:01make Jackson Dart my Exodia and you were like, "Oh, no. He stinks."
43:05>> I hate you for saying this. Why Why do you keep saying this?
43:10>> Um, >> you're gaslighting me. It's nothing.
43:12I've never I've never said anything like that.
43:15>> So, Carninal Tates a sit this week >> and I was looking at the projections and I saw we had him ranked behind Debo
43:22Samuel and I was like, "That can't be right." But then I thought about it for longer than 5 seconds and I was like,
43:27"No, actually that makes perfect sense."
43:28Brock Purdue is gonna have seven touchdowns this week and Carell Tate has a brutal matchup with an incompetent quarterback and an incompetent play
43:37caller. So yeah, I think this is a good call. He's a sit. Sorry. I I'm still kind of excited about his second half
43:43upside just because my guy Eastston Freeze, Titans beat writer, who's excellent, uh is just like in awe of his talent. He's saying like this is the
43:52most >> Awesome.
43:53>> Yeah. And so, you know, talent can win out at the end of the day, even in really dysfunctional environments, but
43:59certainly not excited to start him this week, though.
44:03>> The Arizona boys, Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:05and Michael Wilson, I believe that's Michael Wilson's senior if I'm not mistaken. But anyways, um, listen, >> you sure it's not Marvin Harrison
44:14Senior?
44:16>> Because he's he's Marvin Harrison Junior's daddy.
44:18>> He's his daddy.
44:20That was the joke I was making with the senior, but you actually took it the whole way.
44:24>> There we go. Nice teamwork.
44:26>> Good job. Uh, >> yeah, Seattle's defense is just nasty.
44:30>> We got to talk it out. This is another Let's talk it out here. The amount of grief I got from Ryan Heath over like
44:38we've we went to war over Marvin Harrison Jr. versus Michael Wilson. Uh, and I have I have I have co-owned teams
44:47with Ryan Heath where he made me draft Marvin Harrison Jr. And so this is I don't want to say this is take. It's not
44:54an overreaction to week one, but it is, you know, I'm heavily anchored into what I felt coming into the season. And week
45:00one, it looked like Marv was barely on the team. He had a 7.4% first read target share. Michael Wilson was at 26%.
45:08Kendrick Bourne was at 22%. That's another guy who's better than Marvin Harrison Jr. Um, and so I think at a bare minimum, these two should be
45:17flipped.
45:18>> And then even even that, I think Michael Wilson should be higher. Like I I'm actually bullish on the Arizona Cardinals offense. Jacobe Brassette
45:26ranked second in completions last week.
45:28And we saw that in the second half of last year where he he paced all quarterbacks in completions where, you know, even with this new play caller,
45:35they like to just, you know, go pass heavy. And dude, Jacobe Brassett is good. He's super underrated.
45:42>> I We need to work in a film watching session together every week to make this podcast work. And I just would love to
45:49sit down with you and watch all of Marvin Harrison Jr's routes from this past week with you.
45:54>> You would be laughing hysterically.
45:56>> They're bad.
45:57>> It It's not the route running that's bad. It's the role. It's like we we've joked about the sacrificial X role. He's
46:04literally defining what that means. I I've never seen anything like it. For a for a top five pick in the league to be
46:11used the way he's it's it's literally disgusting.
46:14>> You're saying top five draft pick. This was like the biggest worst most egregious nepotism hired draft pick of all time. If his name was was Marlon
46:24Harrison, if his name was Marvin uh Johnson, you know, this this would have been a second third round pick. like the
46:32sacrificial X thing we've been talk Matt Harmon this was his excuse for for Marv last year or the year before that it's
46:38like oh you know if only he had a good role and then we saw Michael Wilson step into the X role without him the Drew
46:46Pettig X and he was putting up Jerry Rice numbers like >> it's still it doesn't compare to what this is this role he played in week one
46:54it's embarrassing >> so it's really just like decoy to to open up >> it literally is de I mean Scott, it was
47:02all nine routes. I mean, they they'd motion him to the slot and you're like, "Oh, cool. What are they about to do
47:07with Marv?"
47:08>> And it's a it's a slot fade just pulling coverage away so they can throw a slant of Michael Wilson underneath. It's like,
47:13"Oh my god, this is so like I love Michael Wilson and I love Trey McBride, so all gravy for me, but it's just
47:19embarrassing that you have a top five pick on your team and this is how you're choosing to use him." Uh, I think this
47:24is could be a really fun show for Fantasy Point subscribers to check uh, projections on Saturday and see if Brett and I get our way on the projections
47:33meeting. Chris is like, so I'm the most stubborn person in the world. Chris is maybe the second most stubborn. Uh, unfortunately, he's also smarter than me
47:40and really good at this. But yeah, we're we'll have to we'll have to see if I can get him to to flip these two guys based
47:47on what Brett's saying.
47:50>> All right, last one on the sit list.
47:52Jordan Addison vers Chicago.
47:54>> So I actually don't agree with this either. I I So I kind of >> You made the show.
47:58>> I know I did, but I So we have him wide rece So I I mean I agree with it. I I
48:03don't think you're starting Jordan Addison, but we have him wide receiver 59. I feel that feels a little low to me. Uh we just saw a wide receiver too
48:10go nuclear against the Bears. Uh believe it or not, Jordan Addison, I know he did nothing last week, but he averages 16
48:17fantasy points per game and Carson Went starts. Um, Chicago's defense got cooked in week one. Bryce Young had like his best game ever. Uh, it's also it's also
48:28a a pretty good schematic matchup that maybe favors him a little bit more than Justin Jefferson. Probably not starting him because Carson Wentz is probably
48:38that bad, but uh, >> you could do worse.
48:42>> Yeah. So, let's talk then.
48:46Uh, say start 10 deep league, you got multiple flex spots. You starting them then.
48:52>> Two running backs, three wide receivers.
48:54Subscribe to Why are we doing this show?
48:56Just subscribe to Fantasy Points and go off of the >> the projections. Use the front office start.
49:00>> Well, you just told everyone you disagree with the projections.
49:03>> Yeah, but they're the best projections in the industry. We like we we were we had more accurate projections than ETR,
49:08then stochastic, then the Blitz, then and so like who am I to disagree with, you know, >> like like we laid out on yesterday's
49:14show, they're median projections and sometimes you have convictions one way or the other on a ceiling or a floor.
49:20Okay, so you're you're a little convicted on Addison's ceiling here.
49:24>> I mean, not really. He you're you're probably still not starting. He's he's um a w So we have him what is this like
49:31a wide receiver six? I would have him as like a mid-range wide receiver four.
49:36>> Okay. Yeah. So, in a in a deeper league where you got two flex options, you might start him. Okay.
49:41>> Thank you for talking yourself into a pretzel.
49:43>> All right. Let's let's move over to tight ends.
49:46And uh I think you know tight end analysis is really tough this time of year cuz a lot of it really I think it
49:54is cuz beyond the obvious start guys like some of the ones you listed on this very show sheet there's uh it really
50:01does come down to schematics and matchups and we just don't have enough data yet for this year. But um let's go
50:06Stan Leaporter right off the rip. Uh Lions tight end against Buffalo Thursday Night Football. Shoot, you know what? We shouldn't even talk about this. This
50:15game's over by the time they're listening.
50:17>> Yeah, exactly.
50:17>> We dropped the ball on that. That this is why I want to go to a a new format, Scott. Right. This very problem.
50:24>> Dallas Gddard, hopefully you started Sam Laora. He's going to go nuts against the Bills.
50:28>> Well, I I I brought it up because I I was it was interesting to me to see him so high. Um because the Bills were the
50:35toughest matchup against tight ends last season. I will say I was really encouraged by Leaporta's route share is 81%. Uh, you know, that's something
50:42that's always been true of Drew Pig's offenses. And, uh, Sam Leaporta, 15.6 fantasy points per game whenever he hits that mark. That's an elite number. And
50:51so, there's a chance like Sam Leaporta in this offense is is, you know, a top three fantasy tight end. Like, that's
50:58possible. Um, and so that's why I brought him up. But, um, yeah, we'll we'll have to see what happens. We're we're living in the past. You're living
51:05in the future.
51:07>> All right. Dallas Goddard, Philadelphia Eagles tight end versus the Tennessee Titans. We're projecting him tight end three, >> right?
51:17>> Bro, can I say I love this?
51:19>> I can't tell you how much I love this because um >> I kept saying all off season, >> so since 2023, games without AJ Brown,
51:28everyone is like, "Oh, in games without AJ Brown, Devont Smith averages 0.58 fantasy points per route run." In games without AJ Brown since 2023, Devont
51:38Smith averages 14.9 fantasy points per game. Dallas got it averages 15.7 fantasy points per game. So more he's more productive. And then by fantasy
51:48points per route run on plays AJ Brown is off the field. They're basically tied in fantasy points per route run. And
51:54there was a a 10 round gap in ADP. And so all offseason I'm like I'm like I don't know that Devont Smith can be a
52:01true alpha wide receiver one. I think he's a little too frail and skinny and I think I think Dallas Goddard's the
52:07underrated guy at cost and yeah, lo and behold, he's now top three in our tight end rankings. Um he crushed last week,
52:14saw two of the team's red zone targets.
52:17Uh 24 fantasy points, 79% route share.
52:22It's a great schematic matchup. Uh Robert Salah loves cover three. Goddard gets a big target per route run boost against cover three that actually
52:30matches Devont Smith. Uh, and so yeah, I I I like this. It's also like the Titans suck and the Eagles should score a bunch
52:38of touchdowns and like I just said, that's that's typically Goddard. So, uh, I like this. Yeah, if you drafted KD, if
52:45you drafted Craft tight end one like I did, and then you took GDDARD or likely tight end two, uh, yeah, I would start
52:52GDARD this week.
52:54>> Yeah. Can I just say that um he hit the the tight end what's what's uh better than a trifecta when there's four
53:02things?
53:02>> Quad factor.
53:03>> The quadfecta. He hit the tight end quadfecta for me.
53:06>> Wow.
53:06>> And what I mean by that is we saw legit elite route running to get open, catch the football. We saw elite catch and run
53:13that long touchdown. We saw elite field stretching potential that seam ball for the touchdown. And then you know what else we saw that we never see with
53:21Dallas? They moved him around the formation, Scott.
53:25>> Oh, baby.
53:26>> 12 snaps in the slot, three snaps out wide.
53:30>> Uh, no tight end in the league, no starting tight end has played a higher percentage of his snaps in line the last
53:36five years than Dallas CDR has. And he's getting Tucker Craft treatment by Shawn Manion. This is sexy. This role is super
53:44sexy. I think he I think he's legit gonna be a top six or seven tight end this year.
53:49>> Hell yeah. I love it. Hey, he was last year. It was It felt fluky because it was all touchdowns, but dude, he was at
53:55tight end six last year and you were drafting him tight end 14. It was crazy.
53:59And so he because Dallas got her at his tight end three here. This is why the next player was a bad pick and I got so
54:06much grief for that. But it really had everything to do with cost. That said, very high and close and love this week.
54:12Think he's a top five tight end. I would not panic over the zero receptions last week. He had an 84% route share. That
54:18was a careerhigh. uh the second best of any tight end on the week. Uh and so coming into the season, he had only six
54:26games above a 75% route share, but he hit 21 fantasy points in four of those six games. Um this is actually a tough
54:35matchup on paper for tight ends, but still clearly very bullish on on Coulson Lovelin despite that, despite the the down game last week.
54:44>> Yeah, it c it could be a t a tough matchup. Um, it's funny. I could I could like X's and O's my way into thinking
54:52both sides of this. If they want to use him as part of the solution to the crazy Flores blitzes in pass pro, that's bad
55:00for him. If they want to use him as the solution for the hot, like I talked about with Luther Burton, that's really
55:06good for him. So, really will depend on how Ben Johnson decides to use him. I think in the past, Ben has been more
55:12aggressive at attacking voids. You know, thinking back to some of the massive games he has, he he no one owns Brian
55:19Flores like Ben Johnson, by the way.
55:21This is factually true. It's like I think Ben Johnson has a vendetta against him. Have you heard my theory on this?
55:27>> No.
55:28>> So Ben has only been fired once in his coaching career. And you know who fired him?
55:34>> Brian Flores in Miami.
55:36>> They were in Miami together. Flores fired him when he came in. Or I should I maybe fired is the wrong word. He let
55:41him go. I'm just thinking back to how trash that team was, but like they had the arguably the best defensive coordinator and best offensive play
55:49caller in the game on the same team.
55:51>> Yeah, exactly. And they didn't realize it. Um, but yeah, so I it's almost like Ben Johnson goes out of his way to
55:58embarrass Flores ever since cuz every time they've played each other like Ben's gone pretty ham at trying to run the score up. So,
56:05>> bro, I love him. He's a psycho. He's a psycho.
56:07>> He's so petty. He's such a psycho.
56:10>> Yep. So, I like could be good for Lovelin for sure. Uh, Mark Andrews, uh, tight end five projection versus New
56:16Orleans.
56:18This is a fun one. Uh, I've actually got like a bunch of texts from friends and family like, "Hey, should I start Mark
56:23Andrews or so and so this week?" And I've kind of been leaning Andrews, but I'm I'm curious to hear your thoughts
56:29here.
56:29>> Andrews versus who?
56:31>> It just of litany of people.
56:33>> Yeah. Yeah. Um, >> Harold Fannon was the one I got today.
56:36Andrews versus Harold.
56:37>> Yeah, you would. So, he commanded a 33% target share after Zay Flowers left that game with the hamstring injury. That was
56:44something I was saying all offseason. I was like, bro, what happens to this offense if Zay Flowers suffers an injury? Because they have no one else.
56:51Jacobe Lane is out now, too. And you just have like a possibly washed Mark Andrews. The good thing about Mark Andrews is like even if he is washed,
57:00he's such a focal point inside the red zone and always has been uh that he has massive touchdown upside, especially in
57:06this offense. So, um, and then maybe, yeah, that target share sticks. Either, you know, a gimpy Z Flowers is out there
57:14or Z Flowers sits. So, yeah, I agreed with this one. Mark Andrews, mid-range tight end one.
57:19>> Michael Mayer versus the Chargers, tight end seven. We're projecting 11.1 fantasy points.
57:26Uh, we were really high on him last week. Scott, did I skip one? I'm sorry.
57:30Travis Kelce. Let's do Travis Kelce versus the Colts. Sorry.
57:33>> Well, I wanted you to talk about this. I I kind of think Travis Kelce's washed and uh I don't >> Yeah, if we're not careful though, we're
57:40going to set the record for most times somebody said washed on a podcast. So, >> yeah. Um mid-range tight end one Travis
57:49Kelce. I don't know about that one. I I felt like Chris has been too high on him all off season, but his argument is
57:57there's just nowhere else to project the ball to go. Like you're down on Rasheed Rice, you're down on Travis Kelce.
58:02Worthy's got a little bit nicer role than I think.
58:05>> Yeah, I saw that. But still, >> so I'm just looking at Chris's projections like guntohead right now. I would take KD, Jawan, Concaid, Ferguson,
58:15Tyler Warren, Tucker Craft, all over Travis Kelce this week, >> right?
58:20>> So, this is definitely one I disagree on. He's not a start for me.
58:24>> Yeah.
58:25>> Uh, yeah. He he looks pretty busted, but pretty >> a little too high on the next guy, too.
58:29Michael Mayor.
58:30>> That's what I was going to say. Well, we Maybe some of that is um buyer's remorse last week because we were both really
58:37high on him. Like I was super bullish on Mayor going off and then he really did nothing against do the Dolphins who
58:43lived in base defense which is very strange.
58:46>> Yeah, but he did um lead the team in targets uh with seven. and he caught six for 32.
58:54And in his five last five games without Brock Bowers, he's over two yards per route run, 10 six fantasy points per
59:02game. So I get it. Um I would just have him a little bit lower.
59:08>> Okay.
59:09Uh why do you think we're too high on him then? Just saying a little bit low.
59:14>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean it's just what Chris is doing is is he runs projections for pass attempts >> yard for points, pass attempts, yards,
59:23rushing at and so like downstream from that the math has to math. And so if he's projecting out >> 35 pass attempts for the Raiders this
59:32week, the ball has to go somewhere and like Trey Tucker kind of stinks. Jaylen Naylor kind of stinks, Jack B kind of
59:38stinks, >> and Michael Mayer's pretty good. So like it's probably just projecting out raw target volume. Unrelated. Did you see Trey Tucker's ass this week?
59:48>> No. What was it?
59:48>> It's terrible. Negative.
59:50>> Interesting.
59:51>> And he played the Dolphins. And with that archetype, his archetype playing the Dolphins should not ever have negative ass. That's really bad.
59:58>> Average separation score for the folks at home.
60:01>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh George KD vers Miami. We firing this up, running it back.
60:06>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean, listen, he part-time player, only a 47% route share in his first game back from a devastating
60:12Achilles injury. Uh, so that's not good.
60:15What was good was he actually saw three designed screens, which is like pretty encouraging for a guy who you you're you're trying to ease back into the flow
60:24of the game. Uh, and then of course JV defense in the Miami Dolphins. So, uh, just massive touchdown equity.
60:34Yeah. And like you said nine times already, Brock Party's gonna have seven touchdowns this week.
60:38>> Yeah. I hope so. I hope that's right.
60:41>> Daltton Concaid. I think this projection is absurd. Verse Detroit. Tight end eight. 10.5 fantasy points per game.
60:47This is the start of the week for me at tight end.
60:51>> Well, we're living in the past once again.
60:53>> Oh gosh, you're right.
60:56>> Yeah, I put this on here because I I I knew you were going to say we were too low on him, but
61:00>> Oh, >> we'll see. This is a great opportunity for for Chris to own us here.
61:05>> Yeah, it is. All right, last one. Jawan Johnson verse Ravens, tight end 10 projection, 10.3 fantasy points. I thought Jawan looked great last week.
61:14Really like the way they used him.
61:17Not sure about the matchup though. Kyle Hamilton, Rocoan Smith, very good second level coverage players.
61:25Um, what say you here?
61:27>> Uh, yeah. I mean, I could see people panicking on Jan because Noah Fant outtargeted him, out produced him, but uh No, I it was actually really good
61:37usage. He had like a 78% route share and um Noah a fan, you know, only had a 29% route share. So,
61:47>> um >> yeah, I'm fine with this, but I I could see some people thinking a lot lesser of him just looking at the box score and
61:55seeing what Noah Fant did.
61:57I I'm throwing a bonus start on here.
61:59>> I know we don't we won't get it up on the screen.
62:02Cincinnati tight end Mike Gassiki versus the Houston Texans.
62:07>> Uh the role looked amazing last week.
62:09>> Yeah.
62:09>> Um and we just saw Concincaid eviscerate the Texans defense.
62:14>> And the thing that really sts out and why I think it's repeatable for the Bengals is >> we saw the Texans match the Bills big
62:23personnel. So 12 13 21 with nickel and that provides a size mismatch opportunity where you're now either
62:33forced to cover a guy like Daltton Kade or in this case Mike Cassiki with your nickel in which case he's going to
62:40outsize him and out athlete him or you're going to have to match up with an outside corner and it's the same thing.
62:46you're going to get boxed out or you're going to have to match up with a linebacker/safety and you're going to get ran by. And just what I saw on tape
62:54with Cassiki last week, he's moving very well. He was the leading target guy in Cincinnati. Houston's defense, that looks to be the way you can attack it.
63:01Both their middle linebackers are more downhill attacking players. They're not coverage guys at all. And so you're going to be left with this conundrum of
63:10Jaylen Petri or Kalon Bulock versus the big athletic tight end in Gasiki. So I think this is a really fun matchup for
63:18him. Um I think you know it's no one drafted Mike Cassiki, right? So if you have him on the roster, it's because you
63:24picked him up after the big week. But if you're sitting on, you know, who's a disappointing like fringe wide receiver or tight end one, Scott, uh, like if
63:34you're if you're upset about Tucker Craft or George KD's role, I'd say go ahead and start Mike Cassiki over them.
63:39>> Yeah, I don't know about that. I But to play into your argument, uh, I thought it was interesting Mike Jasiki was the
63:45number one and went off last week. You really only ever saw that in games T.
63:49Higgins was out or hurt. And you were saying Higgins looked awful on tape, like uncharacteristically so.
63:57>> Yeah.
63:57>> Uh and so yeah, maybe he's dealing with something. So, >> well, he is. A YouTube commenter did did let me know he's dealing with a foot/toe
64:04injury through camp.
64:05>> Oh, interesting. Yeah. So then, yeah, that makes me like uh just a little bit more this week.
64:09>> Cool. Let's hit some sits really quick.
64:11Well, by actually, let me I know you disagreed with the KD take, but if KD's playing 50% of the snaps and you're
64:17going to get a 70% out of Gaseiki, you don't like that?
64:21Well, I don't know that we're going to get a 70% out of Jasiki because what did he even have last week? He was
64:26>> a lot.
64:27>> No, >> here's the thing. Cincinnati was uncharacteristically heavy.
64:31>> They went >> Listen, Jasiki had a 46% route share.
64:35So, basically the same as KD. And then KD's quarterback is going to throw seven touchdowns this week.
64:40>> Okay, fair.
64:42>> I will say Cincinnati did go heavier personnel last week. They were 12, 13 or 21 like 38% of snaps, which is higher
64:48than a year ago. I think they're definitely going to want to play into those mismatch opportunities a little bit more this year. All right, we're
64:56sitting Tucker Craft vers the Jets.
64:59Scott Tucker Craft, your guy.
65:02>> Yeah, >> Tucker Craft.
65:04>> Well, he he had a 48% route share.
65:07That's down from like 73% last year. He he had a productive day. He caught three of six targets for 65 yards. But uh the
65:15team and he himself have told us the plan is very gradual ramp up toward full usage around mid-season. You yourself said he reportedly lacked his his
65:26typical explosiveness. So uh yeah, Tit 15, as much as I love Tucker Craft, I I can't be too mad at that.
65:32>> Yeah. Yeah, I understand. I feel you.
65:35Harold Fannon Jr. vers Tampa Bay. uh projecting as the tight end 17 just nine fantasy points.
65:41>> It was honestly shocking to see him this low when he was being drafted as what the consensus tight end six but you you
65:48know few players had a more concerning utilization in week one. He had a 7.1% first read target share. Last year he
65:59cleared double that in 15 of 16 games.
66:02Uh his average was his average was triple that. And so, you know, maybe Casey Conpsion and Denzel Boston are eating too much into his work. Uh, maybe
66:11he needs Shadur Sanders. His numbers were much better with Shadur. Deshun Watson looks awful. Um, the one glimmer of hope is Mike Justiki just kind of
66:20went off against the same Buccaneers team. They've been bottom three against tight ends for a while. But, uh, again, that first read target share is really,
66:27really concerning.
66:28>> Could it be a Monan issue?
66:31>> Yeah, it could be. you know, people were really bullish on this because Monin, who had Brock Bowers in college, um, you
66:39know, has compared Fannon to to Bowowers and it's like, oh, he's going to be in the Bowowers role, but, um, at the end,
66:49>> he kind of already was he was in the Bowowers role last year, >> right? And then at the NFL level,
66:54Monin's always had this gross tight end rotation. Right.
66:57>> I don't think he's ever had a tight end have more than 50 receptions in a season. Something like that.
67:03>> Or if he had what Fannon had last year, it would have been the best he ever had from a tight end.
67:09>> All right, last sit here. Isaiah likely versus the Rams. How after that game, Isaiah Likely just put up. How can we
67:15>> That's what I said.
67:15>> How can we have him as a sit, >> bro? Not just a sit. He's tight end 17.
67:20>> I I have >> tied with Harold Fannon. Both projected for nine fantasies.
67:24>> I have a nasty confession I have to make.
67:27I thought Isaiah likely kind of looked good.
67:31>> Why is that nasty? I've been telling you he's good.
67:32>> No, he's been I I've been telling you he's bad for years.
67:35>> Yeah. And I told you you're wrong and you don't know ball >> and you've been wrong.
67:39>> You were telling me to watch the tape. I was telling you to watch the spreadsheets.
67:44>> That's He's awesome.
67:46>> He's been predominantly a catch and run guy in the league. That's what he was in college, too. That's literally all he
67:50did in college. And some of the route running he put on tape this past week was nasty. Nasty work. Beating corners.
67:59>> I know.
68:00>> Beating other DBs. Like look looks really good, man. I don't I don't know.
68:04I think uh likely healthy neighbors Malachi Fields combo is actually a pretty nice little trio for Jackson Dart over there.
68:13>> Wow. So I >> Jackson Dart MVP the 2026 season.
68:17>> Yeah. Whatever. Um that took that took a lot for me to say. You know how out unlikely I've been my entire his entire
68:24tenure in the NFL.
68:25>> You know, it always felt irrational to me. It felt like something >> Why Why would it be irrational? For what
68:29reason?
68:30>> We all know you hate Coastal Carolina.
68:33>> You know, fun story. Charleston, South Carolina is my favorite city in America.
68:39>> Interesting.
68:39>> So, that's my wife and I did our honeymoon there. We love it. Anyways, >> mine is Sakus, New Jersey.
68:47>> No, it's not San Diego. Probably. I I totally thought you were about to hit me with a D's nuts joke. Sakus, like what
68:55is that city?
68:56>> It was voted the the number one smelliest city in America like 12 years ago.
69:02>> Uh I have friends who live there and it's like a the train junction where you from you go I don't know from like
69:10Ruckers or northern New Jersey to Sakus and then New York City is what you do.
69:16>> Okay.
69:17All right. All right, let's smelly because of the swamplands up.
69:20>> Oh, there's swamplands.
69:21>> Yeah.
69:22>> You ever been to like Iowa or anything like that? Smells pretty bad.
69:25>> Does it? Don't they just have like >> rose corn?
69:29>> I don't know why I said Iowa, but like cowland, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma.
69:36>> Trey is gonna be take this personal.
69:39>> Oh, true, true. No, Iowa does not smell bad. I don't know why I said Iowa.
69:43>> Um Kyle Pittz, Tyler Warren on the the let's talk it out thing. I'm guessing this is just pure situational fear for
69:50these guys.
69:52>> What do you got? Why Why are we talking to them? Why are we talking?
69:54>> Well, I I like I'm confused. Why is Kyle Pittz above Isaiah likely? Kyle Pittz had zero yards last week. His
70:02quarterback is awful. And guess what? He had he has as many zero yard games this season as he has 100yard games over the
70:11last four years. One. And he's always sucked with Drake London on the field.
70:15Over his last 14 games with Drake on the field. 9.3 fantasy points per game.
70:20That's worse than Jawan. That's worse than Daltton Schultz. That's worse than Hunter Henry. So, um, this felt a little high for me, but I'd like to hear you.
70:27>> Yeah, but but he got paid.
70:30>> Yeah. I don't >> Did you hear Todd Haley's comments about Tua Tag Lavoa, by the way?
70:33>> No. Let me say >> he said he thinks Tua's retired.
70:38>> Oh my god. Really? like he thinks he retired like a year ago and he's just collecting a check, but he's not
70:42intending on playing football.
70:44>> Oh, wow. Todd Haley said that.
70:47>> I think that's what Joe Marino said on my show this morning. So, I think so.
70:51But >> that's a crazy thing for Oh, I guess he's in the UFFL now, so he can just say whatever he want.
70:57>> He can just say whatever he wants. Yeah.
70:59>> Yeah. Dude, the situation in in Atlanta seems untenable for for multiple pass catchers, let alone >> or sorry, for one pass catcher, let
71:07alone, you know, two or three of them.
71:09So, >> um, not great. Tyler Warren vers Kansas City this week.
71:15>> Why don't you like this one? This seems This actually seems like a good matchup to me.
71:19>> Yeah. Well, that's what I'm saying. Why is he tight end 14? You should be like tight end eight.
71:23>> Titan.
71:24>> Sorry, I assumed your border lines.
71:25Let's talk it out guys were because you don't like him. But no, you do like >> you do like Warren. All right, let's
71:30let's run through these projections then. Let's look let's look where uh you know I have that tab open somewhere.
71:38Scott. Okay, among So we have title 14.
71:43You like him more than Daltton Schultz?
71:44>> Yeah.
71:45>> More than Kyle Pittz?
71:47>> Yeah.
71:47>> More than Jake Ferguson?
71:48>> Yeah.
71:49>> More than Jawan Johnson?
71:51>> Yeah.
71:52>> More than George KD?
71:54>> That's probably the line.
71:56>> Okay. So firmly a tight end one then.
71:58Not even like borderline. Yeah.
71:59>> Firmly a tight end one which makes him an absolute start. So >> I like >> I do too. And I I think Kansas City, as
72:07we saw, can take away your perimeter players. And Tyler Warren is not a perimeter player. I think they're going to have to put the ball somewhere. So
72:14Yep. Yep. Yep. All right. We good?
72:17>> We're good.
72:18>> We're good. That's it. That's That's week two start sits across two different shows. That's going to be the weekly format, guys. Whether it's uh the way we
72:26did it this week or what I want to do next week, we'll see. But it will always be two shows breaking it down. We'll be
72:31diligent no matter what we do to make sure we get the Thursday night guys in the first show of the week rather than
72:38the second show of the week. Sorry about that. Um but yeah, that's going to do it for us today. Thank you so much for for
72:43listening and make remember to go to YouTube, the Fantasy Points YouTube, subscribe, turn notifications on. Please leave a comment. Tell us what you your
72:51favorite part of the show. Tell us your least favorite part of the show. Tell us why Scott reminds you of Grover from
72:57Sesame Street. And always remember, we're helping you win Fantasy League, so please come back every single day. That's going to do it
73:05today. We are out.