0:00Week 2 trade targets here on Fantasy Football Daily. We're going to tell you who to buy low, who to sell high on, and
0:07everything in between. I'm your host, Brett Wfield, joined by Scott Barrett, my usual co-host >> Scott, how are you, my friend?
0:23>> I'm doing great, Brett.
0:25>> Yes. There we go.
0:26>> I'm so excited to be here.
0:27>> That's all I ever wanted right there.
0:29You know, this is my favorite show of the week that we do. This Wednesday show.
0:33>> Yeah. I think in season you can expect us to to vibe out a little bit and >> let her hair down for me, not you.
0:40>> True. That's that's a fair point. Maybe I'll grow the beard out a little longer for this episode.
0:45>> You know what I mean? But uh I love a lot of a lot of the uh viewers, the millions and millions of viewers we have
0:50love to point out that I don't have hair. Like I don't know.
0:53>> They also think you're very smug and they think I'm very smug. But I feel like that should work cuz like we're
0:59constantly taking each other down a peg or two, [laughter] >> right? Come on.
1:04>> You know, sometimes they talk out of both sides of their mouth, right? Cuz we get we get accusations that you're all
1:09we're always glazing each other, but then we're also too smug to each other and we can't take L's and we're never
1:16wrong. I don't know.
1:17>> You're a bald fat idiot. And >> that's just that's just Bears fans that say that, you know. We don't got to go
1:23into the weeds there. But uh yeah, so we're going to do some some fun trade stuff if we have time. We do have some
1:30questions from the audience that we'll get to. [clears throat] I don't know how much time we'll have, but we're going to
1:34do our best.
1:35>> Let's start with some buy high guys.
1:37Scott, uh Z Flowers, top of the list.
1:41Puka Nua also on the list. Uh, if you watch Zay play on Sunday, I don't know.
1:47Some of the the two best run after catch plays I think I've ever seen were from Z Flowers in that game. It was it was
1:55dynamic as heck. Um, you know, he he was involved early. If he had to play more than the first half, he would have
2:01scored like 72 fantasy points, but uh thankfully for him, he only had to play one half. Hopefully his health is okay,
2:08though. Where you at on Z?
2:11>> This year's JSN. This year's JSN. I I I said I there's not going to be a this year's JSN. It was so improbable. It's
2:18unre repeatable. Z Flowers is this year's JSN. And I I think you're going to see it in so it was a historically
2:26great yardage market share for JSN and it was the best receiving yards per team pass attempt season since uh the 1960s,
2:36Lanceworth. And I'm like, that's so But it's like kind of the same thing where there's really nohere else for the ball
2:41to go except for this one guy, but it works and it works exceptionally well.
2:47Uh in the first half, he saw six targets on just 11 routes. Uh he fell just one yard shy of five catches,
2:58151 yards, and two touchdowns.
3:01He had a 13.6 yards per route run. That was like three times the next closest.
3:06Um, and then he got hurt and then he picked up a hamstring. Uh, the good news is he's more dayto-day than week to
3:13week. So, you know, if an owner sees that Q tag, uh, is viewing Z Flowers more closely in line with where they
3:22drafted him >> in on ESPN, he was another borderline Exodia. He was egregiously cheap. Um, and so if if you d if they draft him as
3:32a mid-range wide receiver too on ESPN, they're valuing him now as a potentially hurt um high-end wide receiver too. Like this is a guy I think finishes like
3:44finishes probably top five at the position. Um, and so yeah, this this would be a buy like wow this looked awesome. I loved
3:54what I saw from Declan Doyle. Uh, I I love what I saw from Lamar Jackson and like where else is the ball going?
4:03Jacobe Lane is hurt. Mark Andrews may or may not be washed. Um, >> we've been saying that about Mark Andrews for like three years, by the
4:11way. May or may not be washed. We're not sure.
4:14>> Well, to be fair, this was really the only year I've been saying it. It was his first year last year with a yards
4:19per route run below 2.0 and it was all the way down at 1.33.
4:23>> Um, >> yeah. Um, I first of all, can I just say I hate the this year's JSN thing. I hate it. I
4:32hate it. You hate it. Every time somebody says it, I get like, you know, the skin on my back crawls and
4:39>> but I I just love to hear you talk about Z like this. I feel like you and I have it's been a long journey to get here.
4:45>> This is this is a big L for me. I was a major Z Flower skeptic all the way through until I don't know, maybe a
4:53month ago. like honestly uh as just like this overrated screen merchant benefiting from a lack of target competition and heavy
5:03personnel and the Todd Monkin screen game and no dude he's he's awesome like like you you've been hearing that a Antonio Brown comp I mean you you made
5:12it when he was coming out of college and I'm like you people should get shot for saying that and uh [laughter] I don't
5:18know if you watch week one I don't I don't like you know I I'm always careful to underreact instead of overreact to
5:24week one. That's the smarter move. But >> I'm fine overreacting here. Like Z Flowers looks awesome.
5:31>> Yeah. And you mentioned Declan Doyle. I I just [clears throat] changes to the offense are so extreme. You know, they
5:38were under center for like 60% of their offensive plays. The last two years they were only under center for like 35. So
5:45that was a a major uptick. And then you just see the the rhythmic throwing that they're asking Lamar to do. And hey,
5:51when he had to go get a play with his legs, he still does it. It's just like we're going to make it easier on him 50%
5:56of the time. And I think that's the best strategy for Lamar to make it through a full season healthy as he transitions
6:02into his 30s. So, and I think that all benefits Zay, right? Talking about we're always looking for like who's the Aman
6:08Ross St. Brown role in this Shawn Payeyton, Ben Johnson, Dan Campbell, like well this is what Zay is going to do for them.
6:14>> He's going to be Aman Ross Staint Brown in this in this you know Declan Doyle offense. And so, uh, this is definitely
6:19a guy you want to buy high. Puka Nakua, I don't even know that we really need to spend any time here. I mean, Puka is
6:26Puka. He's great. Looks like he's going to dodge any type of discipline from the league. You know, the Rams are sort of a
6:34mess in week one, but I think they they fixed that. Uh, what do you have to say about Puka?
6:39>> Yeah, I I actually don't think we should just breeze right through this. I think this could be a potential buying
6:44opportunity. I think you know like yeah Puka Nakua was my wide receiver one ahead of Jamar Chase but I the whole
6:52time I was just saying well it's Jir Gibbs easy 101 teardrop easy 102 teardrop and then there's three
7:02guys I really like but no like Puka I think is going to wreck fantasy this year. I think he's going to break
7:09leagues. He didn't score a ton of fantasy points in week one, so maybe there's like the tiniest buying opportunity here. But like I was so
7:17encouraged by what I saw. Matthew Stafford only threw for 155 passing yards, zero touchdowns. That's not going to happen
7:26all that often. Kyle Shanahan's daddy.
7:29Kyle owns Shawn McVey. That's what that was. And Puka Nua again in a game Matthew Stafford really sucked was about like half his typical expectation if not
7:39more than that. Puka only ran 20 routes and still 23.3 XFP. That's an elite number uh on a per route basis. It's
7:49it's super elite. And what was most encouraging to me, this was something we we talked about that I think flew over
7:56the heads over the the large bulk of our listeners. It's kind of like deep into the weeds, like nuance, micro level
8:04stuff, but it was really important to me. It's well, the Rams like to play a lot of heavy personnel, a lot of 13
8:11personnel where there's three tight ends on the field, there's only one wide receiver on the field. If you are that one wide receiver, that's a major
8:19efficiency fantasy cheat code because it's so much easier to get targets as the lone wide receiver competing for targets against tight ends rather than
8:27wide receivers. And last year that was predominantly Devonte Adams, especially inside the red zone. And that made sense to me because if you look at red zone
8:35ass last year, red zone average separation score, Devonte Adams ass was twice as good as any other player. And so it's like, okay, well, he had this
8:45major, you know, um, you know, cheat code scam. He scored 81 fantasy points inside the 10 yard line last year. No
8:54other receiver was over 60. Well, guess what? In week one, that entire role went to Puka. Adams was on the field for zero
9:01of six snaps inside the 10 yard line.
9:04That's down from 78%.
9:06Uh Puka Nakua instead was the featured wide receiver in these one wide receiver sets. I think, you know, sure Adams has
9:15that elite red zone ass. He's really good at separating immediately. Um but he is a lot older. You want to keep him
9:21healthy. Hookah is the better blocker.
9:23Um, and so yeah, it's just, you know, wheels up and like the other the other, you know, nuanced, you know, a little
9:31deeper into the weeds macro take here is I was I was high I had Christian McCaffrey ahead of Puka Nakua in my
9:40rankings in in a two wide receiver format and a three wide receiver. It's the other way. But part of my justification was, you know, the
9:47scarcity of the running back position.
9:49you got to go RB RB uh wide receivers a lot deeper and a lot of our mid-round wide receivers did hit but the round two
9:58running backs smashed the Derek Henry Jir Gibbs Ashen Genty DeAndre Swift Bejan Robinson David Montgomery Javvante Williams all scored 24 or more fantasy
10:10points so you know having this potential edge player in Puka who you know outscored Jamar Chase Hayes by like four or five fantasy points per game last
10:19year. Um, you know, I think I think could go a really long way.
10:25>> Awesome. Uh, I I agree. I don't really have much more to say. I think I think you laid that out really well. Let's
10:30jump into some buy low guys here. And there's a lot of them. Week one.
10:34>> The first one might be a buy high. Might be. Might be.
10:39>> Well, I did ask you that when I saw the sheet. I said, "Why isn't this guy in the buy high category?"
10:44>> But, um, yeah, week one's a liar, right?
10:46So if we're expecting a lot who who >> you are when you said QJ was the wide receiver one of this team.
10:55>> No, no, no. I hate how you do this to me. You do this to me so often. It it's it's it's legit just grinds my gears. I
11:03post >> grinds your gears. Whoa. Whoa.
11:06>> Yeah. Sorry.
11:06>> My gears are ground down to a nub. All right. Go ahead. Let's let's have uh have it out house it out with our
11:14marriage counselor. YouTube commenters.
11:18>> So, I pushed back on the idea that Lad is this de facto wide receiver one for this team. You guys were all assuming it
11:26with really no evidence. And I laid out a very compelling case that maybe QJ is the wide receiver one. It's been one
11:32game. I'm not going to allow you to victory lap this, but I never said that QJ was a better wide receiver than Lad.
11:38I said he's probably a better scheme fit for a Mike McDaniel offense. It's two very different things. And I never said
11:45QJ would be the wide receiver one. I said you can't guarantee that lad is the wide receiver one. They're two very
11:52different things. So get get your story straight if you're going to come at me.
11:54And I'm not going to allow you to victory lap after one week. By the way, I haven't victory lapped any of my
11:58takes. I had a million brilliant takes that went off. So [laughter] like let's you know let's uh let's just be calm.
12:04It's it's a long season. We got a long way to go.
12:07>> Let's let's not be calm. Let's let's be crazy, Brad.
12:11>> Yeah, let's be crazy. So, three weeks ago, I'm saying, "Hey, there's not going to be a Z Flowers this year." A couple
12:18days ago, I'm saying, "Hey, you guys always want to underreact to week one.
12:22Don't overreact." Well, guess what, baby? Instead of instead of having zero new JSN's, we've got two. We got Z Flowers, Lad Mcconi, this year's JSN.
12:32Bro, I couldn't have been any more impressed, any more encouraged. Um, listen, he left the game at the end of the third quarter with a chest injury,
12:42but up until he left, he had a 46.7% target share. That is insane. No other player in week one came close to that.
12:52He was on pace for 150 receiving yards based on his 4.56 yards per route run and the 15 dropbacks the Chargers had in
13:01the fourth quarter. Uh, QJ, by the way, glaringly not the wide receiver one. he was just a part-time player. He had only
13:08a 65% route share, whereas Lad Maki was on the field just about every play. And then I'm wondering if, you know, maybe
13:18maybe the comp isn't JSN for this guy.
13:20Maybe the comp is another comp. It should be illegal. You should be shot in the face for ever saying this, but maybe
13:27he's Mike McDaniel's new Tyreek Hill.
13:30Because you look at how good the offense was with him on the field, 8.9 yards per pass attempt versus off the field only
13:373.9 yards per the offense couldn't do a single thing without him. Whereas when he was on the field, yeah, glaringly the
13:44wide receiver won. He was the motion guy. He was getting lined up all over the place. He was getting peppered with
13:49targets. And so, yeah, I this is I'm hoping a buy low because he's dealing with this chest injury. People just look
13:58at his raw fantasy output and it was okay to good and not great. Whereas I see a player where the expectation I
14:06think is great.
14:08>> Okay, great. Uh, thank you for all that Tyreek Hill nonsense. Um, yeah, I I I don't want your absurd like over-the-top
14:18overreaction take to diminish how I feel about this. I do think LAD is certainly a buy low or possibly even a buy high. I
14:25was encouraged by what I saw. Everything you laid out makes a lot of sense. I like that he's a full-time player. Did
14:31he have some pretty layup type wins in this game that he probably doesn't see against a good team? Yeah, I think
14:36that's probably true, but that doesn't doesn't take away from the fact that he was the the featured player here. So, QJ
14:43was back to a lot of um you know, sacrificial nine route guy stuff. But >> I I just want to say one thing that to
14:51talk about the upside here is over the final eight games of his rookie season, he averaged 106.8 yards per game. That
14:58was the most by a rookie wide receiver in the second half all time. That was better than Puka, Chase, Aman, Raw,
15:06Malik Neighbors. And then what happened last year is, you know, I had no explanation for this. So, I flirted with QJ as the the much better draft pick at
15:15cost. Up until Greg Rosenthal came out and said and and Austin Eckler confirmed, hey, he got really badly hurt in August. The team kept it under wraps,
15:25but he wasn't close to 100% all year.
15:27So, this is the sort of upside ladi has in this Mike McDaniel offense if the Chargers can be competent. And I I do
15:35kind of think week one was more or less an aberration. Um, and so yeah, he just needs to get healthy, but that is a
15:41concern for a guy who's always been hurt. But yeah, >> I'm I'm almost willing to break a rule of mine for for this show.
15:47>> What is it?
15:48>> I have a rule where I I don't root.
15:50>> No drinking on this show.
15:51>> Yeah. Yeah, that that rule. No, I have a rule where I don't root >> for players to fail.
15:56>> But I might just so I never have to hear about the damn Greg Rosenthal injury report about Lad again. I swear I
16:05>> Do you guys hear how petty Fred is?
16:06Producer, producer Trey, you might you might need to eject me from the show. I don't know. I can't take the L. It's the
16:12sixth show in seven days I've had to hear about this thing.
16:16>> Oh my god. Nobody cares.
16:18>> Let it go, >> people.
16:20>> NFL players get hurt. Breaking news.
16:23Wow. Big deal. All right, let's move on.
16:26Jamar Chase and T. Higgins definitely buy low candidates.
16:31>> Yeah, this is easy. This is like, you know, you don't really know your audience, like what percentage are, you know, like diehard high stakes players,
16:39what percentage are, you know, in a league with Sharon from accounting. Um, yeah, do not panic to a week one. The
16:46Bengals inexplicably always suck week one. Uh, but since 2024, Jamar Chase averages 21.8 fantasy points per games in games with Joe Burrow. Higgins
16:57averages 17 fantasy points per game in games with Joe Burrow. So yeah, don't like like week one is just 117th our
17:06sample, right? And so that's what less than 6%. So it's just weird weird stuff happens on just a a oneweek sample. I
17:15don't know. Bejon had what four games in the single digits last year. Don't overreact.
17:22>> It is worth noting I didn't think T.
17:23Higgins looked very good.
17:25>> Oh.
17:25>> Um >> well maybe maybe >> it's one week so I'm not like overreacting to that but he did. I'm not
17:30going to play him in DFS. So, there's that. Because it's also weird that Mike Jasiki had a big game and you've only
17:36ever really seen that when T. Higgins was either out or dealing with injury.
17:41So, I wonder if maybe he's dealing with a little something that >> like Lad Maki last year, the team is keeping under wraps. [laughter]
17:50>> I swear. I swear, man. Uh for real though, what do you look what are you willing to trade on a buy low for Jamar
17:56Chase? Obviously operating under the context we're saying buy low. So the owner that has him has to agree to sell him at a lower cost.
18:06That's what we're saying, right? So what are you willing to trade for a guy like Jamar Chase because that that was a top
18:10five pick in most drafts.
18:12>> Bro, I'd be so It depends on the league, but like in a typical home league, I'd be such an a-hole. It would be like Don
18:18Concincaid and Jaylen Coker. Like let's see let's let's see, you know, just just do like a little IQ test to start off
18:25the conversation.
18:27um you know, maybe Christian Watson and Jaylen Coker or something like that. But I I like doing typically whenever you're doing a two for one or a three for one,
18:36whoever's getting the one is winning that trade. So I like doing those Garrett Wilson and uh and DJ Moore, and Caleb Douglas, throw him in there,
18:46something like that.
18:48>> Okay, here's a hypothetical. You took Kenneth Walker with the 14th pick in the draft. Would you flip Walker for him?
18:54Yeah, if you're strong at running backs, for sure.
18:57>> Cool. CMC, you give us a buy low. This one scares the heebie-jebies out of me, man. But >> does it does it? I mean,
19:06>> just because Well, there's a lot of people who think the Kalin Black thing's staying. So, I I think it's just an
19:11Australia thing, but I'm a little I I almost need to see another week of a buy low situation.
19:16>> Bro, I I do not think this is real. Like Kaitlin Black could have a 90% snapshot this week and I still won't be like
19:23close to admitting it's real until at least Halloween. It's It was basically the fourth preseason week. It wasn't week one in that they they flew all the
19:33way to Australia. Uh Christian McAffrey was dealing with cramps in the game, which that alone could explain the snapshare.
19:41>> Uh he was also a little dinged up in practice a couple days before that.
19:45>> Um and you know, this is the stat I always talk about. So last year with Christian McCaffrey on the field, the
19:5249ers had the best offense in football by EPA per play. With him off the field, that dropped to like 24th. And like,
19:59yeah, that's that's who Christian McCaffrey is. He's like a round one caliber slot wide receiver and a round one caliber running back in one player.
20:08Uh where he never tips your play calling hand. Better yet, he he's a mismatch weapon. You could put him up against a
20:15linebacker and destroy them. defenses have to play you differently. Uh they live in fear of him where he's just on the field. He's a math changer. And so
20:23like if these games are ever competitive, I think I think yeah, he's like never coming off the field. So like, you know,
20:31maybe this is I'm slow to react. Maybe this is TLC, but yeah, I'm not budging Christian McCaffrey in my rank. Well,
20:38I'll move him pasta, but still four. So um yeah, I'm still very bullish. cramps.
20:45He's dealing with cramps. Come on. And he looked great. He led all running backs in success rate. Uh ranked top three in yards before contact per
20:53attempt. Um was super he dude he he finished like he had like 20 XFP on a 50% snapshare. I CMC is awesome. Buy
21:04low.
21:05>> All right. So, this is a this is a great potential situation for somebody who didn't listen to Scott Barrett's draft guide and went
21:12wide receiver, wide receiver to start your draft. Maybe you could trade like a Justin Jefferson and Jaylen Coker >> for Christian McCaffrey. Something like
21:21that. You get what I'm saying? So, like, >> yeah, that'd be a great way to rectify to make wrong things right.
21:26>> Go ahead and and unload one of those receivers you hit on uh and package him with another guy for Christian
21:31McCaffrey. That'd be fun. All right.
21:33Next. Of course, you had to put this on the list, but we have all Giants players. Just trade for them all.
21:37They're just they're great. Just buy low. Cam Scaddaboo doesn't play on passdowns, but hey, go buy him low. Uh, you know, Malik Ne Malik Neighbors did
21:46look good, you know. Absolutely. Credit due there. Jackson Dart should have been the Exodia. Credit there. What do you got to say about your New York Giants,
21:56>> dude? Buy all them. It's It's really exciting times to be Giant fan. Go big blue, baby. Uh Jackson Dart, um if you
22:05remove only that Vikings game, uh he averages more fantasy points per start since the start of last season than Josh Allen.
22:13>> Why do we Why do we remove the Vikings game?
22:16>> Well, you it was just like a really weird game where he attempted like 13 passes. Um but yeah, it was also really
22:23bad def. But I mean, you you you could keep it in there and he's still like top three. It's just he's better than Josh
22:30Allen. And let's not forget he's only played basically six quarters with Malik Neighbors. U but he led all quarterbacks in EPA per play last week. He seemed to
22:40exercise the demons of like a real like demonic possession is like how he plays football just like you know launching himself head first into defenders. He
22:51was a little bit more calculated but he still led all quarterbacks and design runs minus kneel downs. Um he had more
22:58than twice as many as any other quarterback except for Josh Allen. Uh so really encouraging stuff there. Malik Neighbors top five in targets per route
23:08run, 60% uh route share uh in his first game back. You really couldn't have asked for anything better than that.
23:16That's really encouraging. And one has to think that the route share is going to continue to climb. The target share is going to continue to climb. he's
23:25gonna get better and better and uh go back to being the dominant, you know, guy who I was saying if he was 100%
23:31fully healthy, I'd be drafting him probably middle to late round one. So, he looks like a great value. I was worried he was a better buy low than a
23:40draft pick. And no, he looked like a great draft pick. And then Cam Scatteraboo, yeah, he was one of the most efficient runners on the week. He
23:48dominated rushing work for the Giants.
23:51He had a 0.0% target share. that was down from 15.5% over his last five fully healthy games. Uh but he was a great
24:00pass catcher last year. He was a great pass catcher in college. And so I kind of refuse to believe that fantasy
24:08football's unkillable cockroach Devin Singleary is going to stick in that role. I think that you know Cam Scatteraboo is first game back off of a
24:18devastating injury. you're going to see that role continue to expand and climb because he's really so good at it. And so, uh, yeah, Giants to the Super Bowl,
24:28baby. What are what are your what are your thoughts, Brett? And I'll I'll I'll give you this is like or maybe the
24:33Cowboys are just that bad because like there was one drive the Giants scored on where it was just like all screens, you
24:39know? [laughter] >> Yeah. They literally threw just flat after flat after flat after flat after flat all the way down the field. Yeah.
24:47Yeah, the Cowboys defense is really disappointing. And if you remember the first half of last season, they were like on historically bad pace as a pass
24:54defense. Um remember they had like three busted coverages in one game against Chicago.
25:00Uh or maybe four actually, four busted coverages for touchdowns >> and and that's kind of what it looked like, which is crazy because they've
25:07added a ton of talent to that defense.
25:08But regardless of that, Jackson Dart is he looks good. Um he looked in command of the offense. He didn't have to do
25:16anything like super special. Didn't have to make any crazy throws downfield. I don't even think we charted him with one hero throw, but that's okay. Completion
25:24percentage near 80. Catchable ball rate skyhigh. And then he's get gets all the designed runs baked into that, too. So, definitely um agree there. What about
25:34Isaiah likely? You didn't mention him.
25:36We can't call him a buy low. Obviously, he's probably not even attainable, is he?
25:40>> Uh well, he's probably a sell high.
25:42Honestly, this is a player I was very high on. Um, but I I always said he was more of like like he's going to be at
25:50his best now in September. Uh, up until Malik Neighbors gets fully healthy. Um, but yeah, I had a really good stat on
25:58him. It's I over his last nine full games without Mark Andrews, he averages like 18.6 fantasy points per game or some number that Brock Bowers and George
26:08KD have never hit in any season of their career. So, um, >> yeah, but still probably a sell high.
26:17Just I kind of think it this is the Malik Neighbors show once he's fully healthy.
26:20>> Do you happen to know what his ADOT was in this game?
26:23>> No. What was it?
26:24>> I I'm I'm legitimately asking. I know his average depth of route run was like 4.5 or something. Like tiny tiny tiny
26:31average depth of route run. He was basically just the dump down guy or screen guy. Um, real fast. Luckily, I could pull it up in two seconds thanks
26:40to the fantasy points data suite in an 8.3 a dot. So, that's pretty good.
26:46>> That That is pretty good actually.
26:48>> Designed >> the couple times he ran. You looking at neighbors or likely >> neighbors. Were you asking about neighbors?
26:54>> Like I was asking about likely.
26:55>> Yeah, that was likely. Sorry.
26:57>> Okay. Sorry. Cool. All right. Let's move on to the next set of players on the list.
27:03We've got Coulson Loveland, Jameson Williams, DK Metaf. I'm not sure how far the next Yeah, there we go.
27:12Coulson Lovelin, Jameson Williams, DK Metaf, Josh DS, Coulson Lovelin, for obvious reasons. He literally goose eggged you, right? He went zero catches.
27:23>> Yeah.
27:23>> Yeah. Zero catches. This was a what, a third round player in reddraft.
27:29>> Yeah. And again, that was a bad draft pick. He's a buy low here, but that was a bad draft pick. When you have Isaiah
27:35likely going nuclear, Dallas Goddard going nuclear, Dalton Concaid going nuclear, those were our all targets for us if you followed the draft guide. And
27:45then George KD Tucker looking quite encouraging for a week one that that was initially in question as to whether or not they'd even play week one. But
27:54Coulson Lovelin, yeah, it's he scored zero fantasy points, but he had the second highest route share of any tight end on the week. It was 84%. Before
28:04this, he had exceeded 21 fantasy points in four of his six career games with a route share over 75%. Now he hit this
28:14careerhigh. Oh, and his team just dropped 60 points. So, yeah, it's obvious by low.
28:22>> Obvious. A tight end is a luxury pick.
28:24So like make sure you you have, you know, uh enough depth or you're trading away depth to to make this upgrade. It's
28:32like a luxury acquisition.
28:35>> Jameson Williams uh for sure a buy a buy uh low. His role in this game was actually exceptional. He dropped what
28:44would have been like a 65 yard touchdown. Hit him right in the hands, then the chest, then the face.
28:51And it was it was a really bad drop. But then he dropped two other passes after that. And then he dropped
28:57the ball on a reverse. [laughter] So he just had a really bad day. Really really bad day. Uh very unlike Jameson
29:05Williams. And then we we just know this offense will wake up and score a million points. So uh you have anything specific
29:10on JO?
29:11>> Yeah, I'll just say I was I was never all that high on Jameson pre-draft. I I I wasn't high on DK Metaf at all
29:18pre-draft. But, you know, if you're looking to, you know, balance, like, let's say you're trying to trade for Jamar Chase and you want to balance it
29:25out, do a three for two, maybe maybe get these guys um thrown in because their their usage and volume, like you said,
29:32was really much better than their production. Jameson was the wide receiver, eight by XFP, wide receiver 45 by total fantasy points. Uh he he
29:42dropped about 47 airs. He had 47 air yards worth of drops. Um, and then DK Metaf, he was the wide receiver four by
29:54first read target share. He was the wide receiver nine by XFP. He was the wide receiver 49 by fantasy points. To be
30:02fair, I I kind of think he stinks. I think he's super overrated. This is also a little bit of who he was last year,
30:08but I was really encouraged by the Steelers, man. Uh, they were top three in pass rate over expectation. They were top three in situation neutral pace of
30:17play and again really amazing usage and volume for DK Metaf here.
30:22>> You were encouraged by the Steelers.
30:24>> Oh no.
30:27>> Tell me why I shouldn't, >> brother. Uh I mean I Paw [snorts] Patrol offense. I don't know. I could not believe what I saw.
30:37Every everything was short. There was no deep routes, no intermediate routes. So they're running they're spamming stick and spacing and spot. It was it was
30:45awful. I hated everything I saw from that offense this week. And it was against a bad defense in the Atlanta Falcons. It's like you couldn't take
30:53shots downfield with them. DK Metaf's average depth route run was like six. DK Metaf, Michael Pitman Jr. under six as well. All of them. Roman Wilson a 4-3
31:04guy from the slot under six yards uh depth of route run. It just I don't know. I I honestly hated it. And and
31:11Rogers, what's crazy about that is his completion percentage was still like under 60 despite the fact that he wasn't throwing the ball downfield. I I don't really
31:19understand, you know, what was going on there. Um game script a little bit, right? Kind of dictated they didn't they didn't need to
31:27do a ton. Atlanta couldn't move the ball themselves. So, uh I just I was kind of shocked by what I saw.
31:32>> Yeah. Yeah. So again, what I'm looking at is like something similar to the Kell Moore New Orleans Saints scam where
31:39again, just play volume looks excellent when you're when you're top three in pro, top three in situation, mutual pace of play. Uh but again, he had two guys I
31:47wasn't all that high on to start with.
31:48So yeah, you know, not guys to just go out of your way to target. Maybe just throw in if you see them on a roster
31:55you're you're trying to trade for someone else with.
31:58>> Right on. The next guy, Josh DS, an Indianapolis Colts receiver. Uh he got the love finally. Uh we had Matt Harmon
32:05on over the summer to tell us how much he loves downs. You've loved Downs all summer long. I came around on downs
32:11early in the process. I was Alec Pierce, but then transition to Downs. Uh gosh, he was top 10 and ass this week.
32:17Everything looks good. The role looks great. What are you seeing from Downs?
32:21>> Well, actually the the role was kind of shitty in the sense that he got outtargeted by Keenan Allen, Alec Pierce, Tyler.
32:28>> When I say role and you say role, it's two different things. I look at the role as in he's playing on, you know, in 12
32:34personnel. His route share is high. I like the route distribution, the routes they're h asking him to run. I'm like, these are high value routes. He's he's
32:42going to be good there. So, >> yeah. And this, by the way, comes on the back of like uh something I heard
32:47through a source was the the connection and chemistry with DS hasn't been there with Daniel Jones for whatever reason all off season. Maybe you're seeing that
32:58bear out. But like you said, the the role 89% snap share. That's huge to me because again, I was very high on Josh
33:04Downs because heading into the this this game over the previous two years, Josh Downs averaged 8.6 targets per game, 15.6 fantasy points per game. Whenever
33:16he cleared twothirds of the team snaps, those are top 10 numbers. He did it with mostly Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, and so the 89% snapshare.
33:27I was really encouraged by, like you said, his ass was great. It was top six.
33:32And so to me, he's Deontay Johnson 2.0.
33:36Uh I I don't care that he got out targeted by Keenan Allen. I just think he's good at the game. I really like
33:42this role for him. Uh a follower, by the way, said he was wide open for a touchdown and Daniel Jones just barely
33:48missed him. Mhm.
33:49>> Um I don't remember that, but maybe you saw it.
33:52>> Yep. Yep. That's what I mean. I like I actually like the role what he's doing in the offense. I think it's going to
33:57pay off pretty good. So, I agree with that buy low for sure. All right, we got four more by lows to go. But hey, while
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34:49All right, this group we got Jadarian Price, Drake London, James Cook, Jaylen Waddle. Two of these guys I put on the
34:56list, so I'm excited to talk about them.
34:58Jadarian Price, what do you got here?
35:00>> Uh, yeah, I was I was overall bullish.
35:03Um, you know, it wasn't ideal usage, but it really wasn't terrible. Price actually ran more routes, had more targets than Helani. Helani was really
35:14supposed to be the high value touch guy, the the pass catcher. And then on the ground, yeah, you saw Jadarian Price
35:21average 5.2 yards per carry versus George Hani's 3.6. Uh but then again, I put this up before uh Kenneth Walker
35:31went nuclear on Monday night and I was reminded of how stupid that Walker Charbanet split was. Uh and I don't want
35:40to be Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football yet again. Uh logic has to prevail here. Right. Right.
35:49Right.
35:51When you watch the two players run, >> one's a special teamer and the other is really good.
35:57>> Yeah. One of one of them their last name starts with hoe. You know what I mean?
36:01And [laughter] that's unfortunately the role he's going to have on this team it sounds like is he's going to be a hoe to
36:06Jaren Price cuz we need Jiren Price to get the line share here. I He looks exceptional. The burst, the just the
36:14smooth. He reminds me of a young Alvin Chimera actually. That's what it reminded me of watching him. the burst, the ability to slash, get in and out of
36:20his cuts. Um, you know, he can he can change the gap he's running through in an instant. Very, very fun style of
36:28running. So, I I was blown away by him.
36:31I love that it translates to the NFL. I I can't do this for another season with a weird split. What happens when
36:36Charbonet comes back? That's what I'm worried about.
36:40>> Well, what I heard from my injury experts is there's a real chance he doesn't play at all this year. And then
36:46even if he does come back, it could be November if not later. He's not going to be 100%. And hopefully >> screw you over in the playoffs.
36:54>> And hopefully Jarian Price has like three straight 100yard games at that point. They're not going to move off him. What' you say?
37:00>> I said just in he come back just in time to screw you over in the fantasy playoffs.
37:04>> Oh god. Like that that is my literal arch nemesis if that happens. Zack Sharp. And so like one thing I wanted to
37:11note on this was I I was actually um in the fantasy points front office tool and maybe we could show it on screen and I
37:16was looking at all the recent trades made on Jarian Price and uh let me just say I thought the price was right on
37:24Jenarian. We were we gave Z flowers his flowers and now I'm here to tell you the price is right on Jarian Price. Yeah, I
37:30was looking at the trades and it seemed like he he is being undervalued. a lot of these guys that we're talking about,
37:37you could scroll down and see the recent trades. Um, so >> what you see on the screen here is another amazing product over at
37:45fantasypoints.com. This is our front office tool. Can actually go >> It's not a product. It's free with every, you know, basic pro bundle
37:52subscription.
37:53>> Well, it's a product in the Yeah, it's it's it's a big reason to buy one of our subscriptions. But what you're seeing
38:00right now is is we're going through and looking at recent trades. that pulls in all that data for Jadarian price. And
38:07what Scott's telling you is the price is right. Um, shout out I got to shout out my dad, by the way. My dad is a huge
38:12Zack Charbanet fan.
38:14>> Oh, >> and uh I know I know we battle about this all the time, but >> he's a little old school, you know? He
38:19likes the the big thick boy running backs that that like to stick their face in a fan and get after pass. Yeah,
38:26>> Graham used to make fun. He used to say I I had a plotter fetish >> cuz like I like anyone who reminds me of
38:34Brandon Jacobs a little bit on I I want to buy their jersey. Like remind Andre Stevenson gives me the slightest >> God.
38:40>> You were you were a big AJ Dylan guy, weren't you when he came out?
38:44>> I I wanted to believe. I think I was always skeptical because you're like he should be a linebacker. He stinks.
38:49>> Yeah.
38:50>> But uh I wanted to believe. Yeah.
38:52>> All right. Drake London. Um gosh, poor one out for Drake London, man. I know we're listening as a buy low, but it just this quarterback
39:00situation is is rough, dude.
39:04What did you see that's wanting you to go aggressively trade for him right now?
39:08>> Yeah, I feel like a gypsy like cursed his greatgrandfather or something.
39:12Garrett Garrett Wilson, too. Like honestly, Drake London is like a rich man's Garrett Wilson to me in that he's just always had [ __ ] quarterback play.
39:20He had Aashker Cousins, Desmond Ritter who sucks, Marcus Mariota, Taylor Hineki, and now Cooper Rush. Um, so he
39:29he sucked week one understandably, but he averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game and 12 career games with Michael Penn.
39:37Those are top three numbers. Pennock should be back like any day now. He's medically cleared, so it's really just whenever he feels ready to play. Um, so
39:47yeah, I think he's a really good bo.
39:50DeAndre Hopkins walked so Drake or so Gary Wilson could run so Drake London could sprint. I guess >> I mean to be fair I I don't think those
39:57guys are anywhere near DeAndre Hopkins level. Hop Nuke averaged like 22 fantasy points per game with Brock Osweiler. So >> insane
40:07>> Bill. But you know what though? It was a different era where like quarterbacks are still willing to just yolo ball into
40:12tight windows and DeAndre Hopkins was the best contested catch guy of the era.
40:16So, it's, you know, I wonder if you put him in this era if he'd have the same result. But anyways, uh, James Cook, a
40:24guy I added to the list. He was not very good week one, and he might not be very good in week two. He's got a tough
40:30matchup against Detroit, who's got a really good run defense. They have for most of the Dan Campbell era. Uh, yeah.
40:37So, I I mean, I still think he's awesome, though, and I think the Bills still want to run their offense through
40:42him. through Allen, but the run game goes through James Cook. This guy, didn't he lead the NFL in rushing guards last year, Scott?
40:48>> Yeah.
40:49>> Yeah. I mean, we're not giving up this soon, right?
40:53>> Uh, no, we were not. Honestly, I thought his usage was really encouraging. We didn't talk about James Cook at all, but
40:58I I looked it up and like he he kind of dominated the backfield. He had 13 of 15 carries. He had six of 21 16 of 21
41:07routes. He had all four of the targets out of the back field. uh he had 93% of the backfield XFP. So, you know,
41:16that's a massive uptick based on what he did last year. Um and there were talks all off seasonason from the Beat Riders
41:22that he might be more involved in the passing game. And I really think you saw that with that 50% route share, that 14%
41:29target share. And so, yeah, people are going to look at the 9.9 fantasy points, but they're not going to look at a guy
41:36who was what, third in touches, fifth or sixth in fantasy points per game last year. And like honestly, this this role
41:44looks even better. Um, it was just a tough matchup. It was a, you know, surprise shootout where Josh Allen had to be Superman. Um, but it's, you know,
41:53that's not going to be most games, I don't think.
41:55>> Well, and the Bills, they barely ran any plays, right? I mean they like it was a it was against a really good defense but
42:01they actually hit some explosives too which I think cut off some of their drives where did they rank in terms of plays run?
42:08Yeah, 25th in the NFL in plays run just 52. So that that's abnormal for them. I know they kind of play methodically and
42:14slow in general, right? But I think we can expect that number to go up week over week. Um they're they're not an
42:21offense that you know racks up a ton of explosives. though.
42:26Okay, Jaylen Waddle is the last one. If you watched Monday Night Football, which you saw was a very disjointed Denver Broncos offense, one that I couldn't
42:37believe what I was watching. Bo Knicks looks like he took a step back. Uh Pat Bryant was the the target hog. Uh but
42:44when I really got into the coverages and watched the tape, I know I just noticed, you know, Kansas City went out of their
42:49way to take Jaylen Wadd out of the game.
42:51Steve Specno is one of the most aggressive, you know, coverage matchup style coordinators in the league. If he has a guy he wants out of the game, he will do
42:59what he has to to get them out of the game. He was doubling Jaylen Wadd on several plays. It's really rare in
43:04today's NFL to see true double coverage on wide receivers and Wadd was getting double treatment and uh and then on top
43:11of that, the turnovers, they just the Broncos offense was legitimately terrible the entire night. So, I think this is definitely a boow guy for
43:19someone who they was their only meaningful offseason acquisition, a guy I've been really high on all offseason that I think will be will be excellent
43:26for the rest of the season.
43:28>> Um, Terry McLuren too for similar reasons, right? You were talking about the Vic Fangio what cloud coverage or something.
43:36>> No, it's match. It's match coverage, but they were just basically bracketing off Terry the whole game, you know, and and
43:43not really some of it's natural brackets because the way the Fangio defense aligns, but um yeah, they were, you know, taking away an underneath lane
43:50with a linebacker and then, you know, they'd have Quinon Mitchell basically right over top of him. So, anything to say about Jaylen Waddle or
44:00no, you just good?
44:01>> Um, yeah, I'll take your word for it. I mean, yeah. And certainly not panicking for a highly drafted player after week
44:09one. Week one's a liar, like you said.
44:11>> Yep. Yep. Yep.
44:13>> All right, let's move into some sell highs. Guys that were like not necessarily buying it. Um I there's one name on here I love that you put. But
44:20let's start with Justin Jefferson.
44:24>> Go ahead.
44:24>> Um well, he finished wide receiver three in fantasy points, but he was like wide receiver 20 in XFP. it wasn't really,
44:32you know, the most valuable, you know, volume, but it's it's also like I don't know. We we were kind of hating on
44:40Justin Jefferson coming into the season and now like I don't know, Kyler, it was a small sample, but wasn't too encouraged. And I
44:49I've never been encouraged. I think he he's only had one wide receiver finish top 24 in fantasy points throughout his whole career. Um, we saw Justin
44:58Jefferson average seven fantasy points per game with JJ McCarthy last year. And now Carson Wentz, like this is like barely a functional offense with Carson
45:08Wet Wentz under center and honestly like here's a question for you Brett is like who should the Vikings starting quarterback be? Like are they better off
45:15with Kyler or WZ? And is Justin Jefferson better off with Kyler or Wentz?
45:22>> He's definitely better off with Kyler I think.
45:25But I think the more concerning thing here, and you you buried the lead, is >> Yeah.
45:30>> I've been saying since week one last year that I don't think he looks the same.
45:34>> Yeah.
45:34>> I don't think he looks right. Guess what?
45:36>> He didn't impress you week one.
45:38>> Not at all.
45:39>> Oh wow. [ __ ] >> Yeah. I thought he looked like >> Oh god.
45:43>> I know the these are the types of of flag plants that get me in trouble sometimes because they seem inflammatory, but I think he looked
45:50objectively bad. And in fact, you know what? Screw that. You can go right to the the Fantasy Points data suite and
45:55look at the the separation numbers. He had one of the lowest win rates in the NFL among wide receivers. He had
46:00negative ass this week. That's very unlike Justin Jefferson. And it's something that started last year and it's continued on. I most of his big
46:08plays were contested catches.
46:10>> Um I think he had one catch that was kind of it was what we call schemed open. Um, yeah, it just he does not look
46:17like the same guy to me and and I really hope he proves me wrong because he's one of the, you know, most fun receivers in
46:21the league to watch when he's cooking.
46:23But yeah, I was concerned, man. I was concerned with what I saw. So, >> anything else for you or you want me to
46:31move on here?
46:33>> There you go. You're looking on the screen.
46:35>> Justin Jefferson negative ass. As you can see, the win rate under 7%.
46:40But you look across the board, Jordan Addison down there, too. 4.2%. not great. So, they're going to need improvement all the way around.
46:48>> What's that?
46:49>> Another little interesting wrinkle is uh Justin Jefferson averages 16.3 fantasy points per game and when starts, Addison averages 16.0 fantasy points per game.
47:00So, like that's a that's a decent number given how shitty Carson Wentz is, but like kind of surprising the gap is so
47:07tight between those two receivers.
47:08Although uh certainly target share more in Jefferson's favor and that doesn't include uh last week's big game.
47:17>> All right, let's talk Kairen Williams.
47:18This is a sell high for you. Is this is this Blake Cororm knocking on the door?
47:24What is this? Why Why are you out on on Kairen Williams?
47:27>> I mean, this is, you know, I I just didn't like Kairen at cost coming into the season. So, a lot of it's that it's
47:33also, yeah, he he finished 14th in fantasy points, but he was just 25th in XFP. That's despite ranking second to last in pro on the week. So, um the Rams
47:44went super runheavy. Uh you know, and it's also, yeah, Cororm looked great again. He flashed in every efficiency metric. Um Corm's not getting passing
47:55down work or goal line stuff. That's really going to Kiran. And those are really just like the touches that actually matter. The in between the 20
48:02runs are just like empty calorie stats.
48:06>> Um but I don't know like dude Cororm looks so good. Like it wouldn't shock me if uh this split kind of changes into
48:14you know well maybe it's it's only 6040 uh highv value touch split in Kairen's favor. So um yeah this is kind of just
48:22like how I felt coming into the season.
48:25But, uh, you know, because he scored a lot of fantasy points and a lot more than his volume implied, uh, he's
48:32probably a good sell high.
48:34>> Okay, I can get on board with that. Uh, Bucky Irving here. You have a sell high.
48:39I'm, uh, I'm curious. I think you're like the only one in this camp. A lot of people are really encouraged. They think
48:44we got rookie Bucky back. I disagree personally, but what are you thinking here?
48:49>> Nice. I like when we agree. Um, yeah.
48:51So, he finished 10th in Fantasy Points.
48:54It was the RB17 by XFP. He saw a [ __ ] ton of targets. But it was this really weird game where like 80% of Baker's
49:01throws were behind the line of scrimmage, which was, you know, the most of his career. Really atypical for gunslinger Baker. Um, and Shawn Tucker
49:10was out, you know, all offseason. They'd be talk talking this up as a three-headed committee where Shawn Tucker last year was the goal lineback.
49:17And so it's possible, um, you know, this role isn't as good as it appeared in week one. And it really wasn't that
49:24great to be honest. 17th in XFP. You need Bucky to be insanely hyperefficient, which to be fair, he was. It was like an all-time great hyper
49:33efficiency season as a rookie. Um, but I don't know. I know you're not the biggest uh Bucky Irving fan. You're more
49:41of a skeptic anyway. So, it just seems like a good buy low opportunity just especially if like you have a savvier
49:47league that's like on Twitter following fantasy analysts because all these fantasy analysts are like, "Yeah, this is we're back to rookie Bucky. Bucky was
49:58the best pick you could have made and I'm not really buying into that."
50:02>> Yeah. I So, regardless of what I think of Bucky, like I think the box score stats are lying to you just because the
50:09game script, you know, determined that it was going to lie to you. So, we're not going to get that game script every
50:14week. Start with there and then, you know, Shawn Tucker comes back. You made that point. I think Kenneth Gainwell will be a bigger part of the offense,
50:20too, at some point. I just think this game got away from them, right? So, >> I think in situations like that, you
50:25kind of have to throw out, you know, what what happened and and kind of wait for more information. It's possible Bucky is back to being rookie Bucky. I
50:32just I'm not willing to commit to that yet. And I think if someone wants to overpay or or pay higher than you paid
50:38in the draft, I'm definitely willing to take them up on that. So, all right, last sell high. Um, and then we'll talk
50:45sell a sell low candidate. Sell high is is Bryce Young.
50:51This is obvious. We talked about him yesterday on the waiver wire show, but what's up with you and Bryce Young?
50:59>> Uh, you added this to the sheet and it's stupid because Bryce Young is is on waivers everywhere. Uh, so he's not a
51:05sell high. He's a don't add off waivers.
51:09Um, >> fair. That's fair. That's a fair point, >> bro. He Yeah, he went off up against a shitty Bears defense, but he exceeded
51:15206 passing yards only three times all of last year.
51:19>> Yeah, I This is obviously more for like super deep leagues or if you get anyone offering you anything for Bryce Young
51:27off of this game, I would take them up on it. I just don't think uh when I think of sell I wasn't thinking really
51:32in terms of shallow leagues but like you know Bryce Young is not going to do this week over week and I think that's kind
51:39of the point is like don't don't believe the hype off of one game. So um I got a question for you Scott. Is it
51:48would it be sacrilege to sell high on an Exodia?
51:52>> No.
51:54>> What about David Montgomery?
51:57We love the role. We loved the usage, but against a not good run defense in Buffalo, the Houston Texans could not
52:04run the football. Dayon Walker was tossing around Houston Texans interior offensive linemen like like they were small children. I I got a little bit
52:16scared watching the tape. Loved again, loved the role, loved the usage, loved that they got him in the end zone a
52:22bunch. I just am concerned that maybe long term it's going to be a little bit more inconsistent than we were hoping.
52:30And if someone's willing to pay up for David Montgomery because of the fantasy points this week, it feels like a possible opportunity to sell.
52:39>> Yeah, I I think that's actually a good call. You know, like he was an Exodia, but it was because I liked him so much
52:45more than where he was going in drafts.
52:48But if you can if you could trade him away and get a Bree Hall, a Jeremiah Love, a Devon Achan. Yeah, for sure. I I
52:57would pounce at that.
52:58>> What about a receiver? Like what if you want to, you know, say you went running back heavy like you recommended. You got
53:04two other guys that hit. Looks like >> Vlad Manki is a great target. Like >> you go one for one. Monty for Maki.
53:11>> Yeah, that'd be sick.
53:12>> Really? Okay. Yeah.
53:14>> Cool. All right, let's move into the sell low here.
53:18How many names we got in this?
53:20>> We got one.
53:22Mr. Rashi Rice.
53:24Boy, what's up? What's What's up with this?
53:27>> Get this a-hole off my team. Uh, this dirt bag. Yeah. So, apparently my hottest take of the off season was no
53:36one was lower on Rashid Rice in the industry than me. I had him like 14 spots below consensus. Uh, this this
53:43this is a big L for Chris Wet, by the way, who rar rarely takes L's. Um, >> oh, did that feel good to say that?
53:50>> Oh, man. Did it Did it ever. Uh, yeah.
53:52Like, everything about this sucked. The Rashi Rice PR screen merchant scam seems totally dead in the water. He had what,
54:01two targets, a 7% target share, but he scored a touchdown. So, like that's points. So, you know, you know, his value didn't completely crater. U but
54:12yeah, sell sell well and get him off my team.
54:15>> Two things that happened yesterday that were hilarious. Rashi getting a touchdown and Travis Kelce getting a 60-yard reception.
54:20>> Yeah. Hey, uh did did Patrick Mahomes look washed to you, Brett?
54:29>> He did look a little washed to me.
54:32>> I I may may or may not have said on the phone to you last night, Patrick Mahomes is washed. Oh,
54:36>> you know what? My buddy John Costco agrees. John Costco over at PFF or now Teamworks, sorry, PFF Enterprise texted me in the middle of that game after I
54:43talked to you and said, "Hey, Mahomes is washed."
54:46>> So, and no one was higher on Mahomes in 2017 than than John Costco. Um, I mean, like, let's be real here. He he hasn't
54:54played good football since 2022.
54:58>> Yeah, this is true. He has a >> like he hasn't been an accurate thrower of the football 10 plus yards down the
55:04field since 2023 and he had zero completions over 10 yards last night.
55:13>> Yeah. Well, 10 yards of air.
55:17>> Yeah.
55:17>> Obviously, he had the a lot of catch and run stuff. EMTT Johnson had a really nice catch and run play, too. Um Yeah.
55:24And and by the way, it does actually look like they've transitioned the offense to a runheavy, you know.
55:31>> Yeah, that's the they were using Rasheed Rice as an extension of the running game because their running back sucked ass.
55:38Now they have an elite running back and so they're just going to pepper Kenneth Walker with carries against light fronts and he's going to be the screen guy.
55:47>> You want to you want to talk about how elite Kenneth Walker is real quick?
55:50>> Yeah. And he's going to break records in this tackle force. He's gonna dominate.
55:55>> So the the really funny thing was uh so we did the Scott Bear Bowlable which is this custom league I made centered
56:02around fantasy points data's efficiency metric. So instead of a PPR league, it's a PP MTF, point per miss tackle force for running backs league. And I was
56:13accused of you also get points for explosives. And I was accused of making the entire league and inviting Rich Reebar and Davis Maddock and Sig Bloom
56:22just so Kenneth Walker would be worth worthy of like the 101 pick in this format. And I was like, "Guys, I
56:29promise. I didn't even notice that. It was just like a a lucky happen stance."
56:33But uh I had a late round one pick and so someone took Kenneth Walker like top five and yeah, he might be the most
56:39valuable player in that format. It looks like he's gonna break our mistackle force record this year.
56:45>> He I mean he's off to a good start. He was second all time in fantasy points data for force missed tackles in a
56:51single game yesterday.
56:53>> Yeah, >> second all time. 16 force missed tackles in a single game. How many fantasy points is that in the Scott Bear Bowl?
57:00>> I'll pull it up. Oh, no. It's not It's not updated yet, but it's going to be crazy.
57:04>> Yeah, but settings wise, how many how many points is 16 force missed tackles?
57:08I'll I'll look right now. It's >> what is it? Four points for It might be 60.
57:12>> It's It's three It's three points for a force tackle. So, it's that's 48 fantasy points.
57:17>> Dang.
57:18>> In one game just on force miss tackles.
57:20That's freaking insane. But he looks awesome, >> bro. Imagine Kenneth Walker and a Clint Kubak offense.
57:27I don't want >> imagine I like I will never forgive the Seahawks for what they did to me and fantasy points drafters last year. Uh
57:36during the regular season 5050 committee sucked, hurt your team and then as soon as the fantasy season ends, he goes nuclear in the playoffs, went nuclear in
57:45week one. I >> I know you don't want to hear this, but can I tell you something about the NFL?
57:50>> Yeah.
57:51>> The teams the the goal team >> the goal of the league is actually to win Super Bowls. It's weird.
57:57I know. I know that's hard to take, but imagine how much keeping your super injuryprone running back healthy for the duration of the season is actually more
58:06important than scoring >> points in week nine, you know?
58:11>> Well, that's the thing is like if God turned injuries off, I would take Kenneth Walker crazy high right now. But
58:19like like and I I'm usually a little too optimistic with injury risk, but this is a guy where the entire and Mike Evans,
58:29too. Honestly, like the entire time I'm rostering them, I'm holding my breath.
58:33It feels like I love that. All right. Well, we're done with the the trade stuff. Should we get should we hit a couple of these
58:43questions? We got a couple minutes. We got we do have to get out of here, >> but uh >> usually we could run long, but uh maybe
58:50this week it's a little tight. Uh so if you like the Q&A format, uh let us know in the comments.
58:55>> Yeah, actually that's a great good job, Scott. Tell us in the comments. Do you want um the Wednesday episode every week
59:02to be a little bit more Q&A style. Um we could even talk about going live and maybe producer Trey doesn't like that
59:09idea, but uh I don't know. Let us know in the comments what you want to see out of this Wednesday show. This is the one
59:14episode a week we'll get to let let our hair down and kind of just bro out a bit barbershop style football talk. So,
59:21let's uh let's dive right in. Are we panicking on Devin Achain?
59:26>> I'm not like I refuse to like panic on a player I I felt good about um after week one and after week two.
59:34Honestly, like obviously Bobby Slowick looks like an idiot. No offense, Brett.
59:39and th this offense looks broken and really bad for fantasy. Um but the silver lining here is he had an 88% snap
59:46share and being an every down player like cures all ALS. Um it's you look at all right every so 88% snap
59:57share in fantasy points data history any running back in any week with an 88% snap share averages 19.2 fantasy points per game. they hit 15 fantasy points 70%
60:08of the time. Uh if they have a target share of 11.5% or better, Hanss was 15%, it's 20.6 fantasy points per game. So
60:18this is like a bottom 15th percentile outcome based on the usage. And so like just hopefully it was just a weird week
60:25or Slo's going to come to his senses.
60:28They're going to mix things up. Um so I I'm going to choose to remain optimistic here. I think I think coming in you had
60:35to know Achan is a good bet to finish as a mid-range fantasy RB1, but he is going to be more volatile than both. U but
60:44like I still see a rare upside in this offense and you you you have the proof of concept from Bejian Robinson, right?
60:52Who had like a 100 100 game in week one, had like 10 targets. Why why can't we have that for Devonte Chan? Okay. So,
61:01that's I I'm I'm not panicking. At least not yet.
61:04>> Yeah. This was another one, too, where Games Script really did just get away from them. They I think they only ran 49
61:09offensive plays, maybe 50.
61:11>> Well, that's Yeah, that's freaking scary, Brett. In a blowout, you're only going to run 49 games.
61:16>> Oh, no. It was It's the turnovers, though.
61:18>> Yeah. The sacks.
61:20>> Yeah. And some three and outs because, you know, the interior of Miami's O line did get mollywpped pretty good. But
61:28yeah, I I'm not panicking yet for sure.
61:29I like you said, the role is fantastic.
61:32We just need the Dolphins to run like 65 70 plays and we'll be we'll be fine.
61:36We'll be fine. So, the explosives for him will come.
61:39>> All right. Well, I want to ask you about something, Brett.
61:41>> Oh, god.
61:43>> So, people are a buzz with the newest efficiency hack, play calling efficiency hack that's taking the league by storm
61:52and is going to revolutionize the game.
61:55And the league is going to have to ban it next year.
61:58Banana lotion. What does that mean to you?
62:02>> This that was such a hyperbolic, you know, run-on sentence right there that it's absurd. This is like literally a nothing burger. You know, this this
62:13play's existed for a while. It's basically like a fullback escort type play in the flat. They built they've been building it into RPOS's now for a
62:20while. It's also, you know, the backside option on on pass concepts a lot where it's like, hey, if the quarterback gets
62:27in trouble, not only do we have a checkdown, but we have a checkown with a lead blocker and then sometimes they'll
62:32use it as the primary and it's really nothing. The only difference is they're just adding some motion to it a little
62:37bit more where they're bringing the fullback across a formation of motion.
62:40It's just a way of dressing it up and disguising it. It's it's nothing crazy.
62:44This play has been around for a while.
62:46It's not a super impactful thing. Um, we're good on that.
62:52>> What's it called?
62:54>> It's a It's called an It's an escort.
62:57>> Banana banana motion.
62:58>> Banana. Well, yeah. The motion was like a banana motion. Yeah.
63:01>> Cuz it's shaped like a banana.
63:03>> Correct.
63:04>> All right. Well, the other thing I wanted to ask about is Twitter is all a buzz, Brent. They're saying 1990s
63:10football is back. The pass game is dead.
63:14It's all about running backs. It's all about heavy personnel. It's all about straight under center dropbacks.
63:22Are we going to party like it's 1999, Brett? What's going on?
63:25>> I mean, we're just picking up where we left off last year. I actually ran the numbers. Uh, NFL offenses on average
63:32last year to end the season, week 17, week 18, week 16. They averaged 24 plays per game out of 12, 13, and 21
63:40personnel. Those are your 90s football, heavier personnel groupings. Well, guess what the average was in week one this year? 24. the exact same. So, yeah. No,
63:50I mean, this is just where we left off.
63:52Nothing's really changing. This is just symptomatic or sorry, symptomatic of Twitter, which is it's a little late to react to things, you know, like the
64:00banana lotion play that's been in the 49ers playbook for like four years, five years. We're just now reacting to it because they added a little motion to
64:07it. Not anything crazy. Same thing here.
64:10It's like the 12 13 personnel stuff, the fullback. I will say this actually. You know what? I'm going to change my
64:16answer. Here's here's what we're seeing that's a little bit new. And this is a a theory I've been working out behind the
64:23scenes with you a little bit, Scott, is I think you're actually going to start to see a drop off in play action. And I
64:29think what you're seeing is the old school five and sevenstep drop pass concepts without play action from under center are coming back. The Norf Turner
64:38style Minnesota Vikings, the, you know, the Chargers of the mid 2000s offenses.
64:43I think that's what you're seeing a lot of and the reason for that is I do think quarterbacks and offensive coordinators
64:50are realizing that sometimes turning with how exotic the defensive fronts have gotten, with how exotic some of these coverage rotations and disguises
64:59have gotten, turning your back to them actually isn't a good thing. And so you're seeing some legit straight drops and it still gives the illusion of the
65:09threat of the run more than shotgun does, right? because we're under center.
65:13Under center runs are harder to key and fit than shotgun runs. And so I Yeah, I think that's the big change. That's the
65:20most 90s thing happening. It's not the heavy personnel. It's actually these five and sevenstep drops from under center. There was a bunch of them this
65:26week. Even Lamar Jackson was freaking doing it, which is crazy. Brock Pury, Jared Goff, Jordan Love. Um I'm I'm forgetting a bunch, but CJ Stra, there
65:36was a bunch of just straight five and seven step drops from under center. That is new. That is that is something to
65:41keep an eye on throughout the season.
65:42Play action rates going down would be my guess.
65:46>> Can the chat tell that whenever you talk X's and O's, my ADHD kicks in. It's like >> Yeah, I can tell you you're not
65:53listening.
65:54>> I I can only synthesize football through spreadsheets. It's It's really >> Yeah.
66:00>> Well, you know, that's why we're a good pair, Scott.
66:03>> My strengths are your weaknesses and vice versa. Look at that.
66:09>> Yeah.
66:10All right.
66:11>> Like we're like peanut butter and salmon.
66:15>> Peanut butter and salmon?
66:17>> No. What?
66:17>> You ever had a peanut butter and salmon sandwich?
66:21>> Stop. You talking like You're just messing with me. Okay. All right. All right. [snorts] I was like, is this like
66:26a legit hack? Like a smoked salmon salmon and locks kind of thing or bagel and locks but peanut butter instead of
66:32cream cheese? I thought maybe that's where you were going with this, but cool. Glad to know I didn't get baited into that. All right, let's
66:38>> You were close to >> I was close to answering the question authentically. Yeah. Yeah. All right.
66:43>> Another reason we're a good pairing is you're like the most naive and like trusting person ever and I'm just like a
66:49sarcastic dick, you know, [ __ ] with you 100% of the time.
66:53>> Yeah. Yeah. People are picking up on that. All right, we should probably get out of here. We uh you know, we got we
66:59got to get out.
66:59>> One last question. I I don't want I'm having too much fun.
67:02>> All right, you pick the question then.
67:04I'm not picking it.
67:06Um, well, I I got one for you because we're we have our start sit episode coming up.
67:13Who are the top three defenses to target every single week? You know, start all
67:22your guys up against these defenses. I I think what immediately springs to mind are the Dolphins, the Cowboys, the
67:30Bears, potentially the Browns.
67:34Uh, Bears, Panthers, Dolphins. Done.
67:38>> Bears, Panthers, Dolphins. Okay.
67:43>> Easy.
67:44>> They all They all can't defend the run.
67:46When you can't defend the run, you open up yourself to an onslaught of play action, explosives downfield. Yeah. It's not good. Not pretty. Well, actually
67:54from a DFS perspective, we like defenses that can defend the run but suck against the pass because, you know, when you
68:01can't defend the run, then, you know, teams can play keep away. It slows down play volume. Uh, but if you have a
68:08passfunnel defense, that's where you could really get fireworks. Uh, you know, when we're chasing double stacks for DFS tournaments, that's it's a big
68:18thing we look for.
68:19>> Thanks for talking about that on this DFS show we're operating here. Yeah.
68:24>> Do you want to That was a short one. You want to do one more?
68:27>> Yeah. All right. You You pick the question.
68:28>> All right. All right. Let me uh Was Trevor Lawrence finally the prince he was promised or was it the Browns?
68:37I don't [laughter] I don't know what that means.
68:42Uh so so I just want to say something on Trevor is like he's been exceptional.
68:48not just in week one where he led all quarterbacks an EPA per drop back, fantasy points per drop back, uh but
68:56he's been exceptional over a fivegame, eightgame, 12game sample. You know, in any of those splits, he's the overall QB1 by fantasy points per game. He's the
69:07overall QB1 by fantasy points per drop back. Like he's like averaging 2019 Lamar Jackson levels of fantasy points per drop back. Um, and so yeah, I'm very
69:19bullish on on Trevor. The one thing I'll say is like he was a major target for me in DFS because I and I I wanted him
69:27stacked with Jacksonville's defense because, you know, when he went nuclear in the second half last year, it came against like one of the softest strength
69:36of schedules for a quarterback. And the Jaguars led the league in turnovers on defense and starting field position. And so like one of the biggest hacks of Liam
69:45Cohen is how greedy he lets his quarterbacks be inside the red zone.
69:49>> Yeah.
69:50>> Um and you know expected really good starting field position, high number of red zone drives. Um and so yeah, you saw
69:56him finish top five in the week despite not playing a single snap in the fourth quarter. So I'd say we don't really know
70:02yet, but like you have to be really bullish. Like this is what I wrote in the everything report is like Malik was my Exodia but the Exodia
70:11runner-ups were Jackson Dart, Trevor Lawrence who look, you know, pretty incredible to me.
70:18>> Awesome. Yeah, I I think Trevor looks great. He looked great at the end of the last >> We were a big hater on him.
70:23>> Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
70:24>> So, what has what has changed about his play?
70:28>> The game has slowed down for him. My biggest critique of him was he he played too fast, right? He he locked onto his
70:36first read, basically tried to, you know, lightning speed read the the progression and then would just throw to his first read anyways. So, he's um he's
70:46slowed the game down a little bit. You know, he's getting through the progressions, but also just letting routes develop a little bit. I think
70:53he's becoming a more efficient passer.
70:54And then just the selectiveness with his legs has been huge. knowing when to scramble and make stuff happen. I think that that's been a big thing and that
71:03that's part of letting the game slow down a little bit. He's added a little like Drake May to his game to an extent
71:08and they're actually very similar quarterbacks except Trevor Lawrence is um he's always been a very accurate passer. So I I think that's ultimately
71:16what it is just processing processing power got an upgrade and I think that's uh that's kind of fueling this whole this whole uh uptick in play.
71:25All right, we good? Let's get out of here. All right, that's going to do it for us today on the trade episode. Um, remember
71:33to check out all of our episodes every single day, whether it's, you know, waiverwire, we'll have start sit for the rest of the week. Um, we're helping you
71:41win fantasy leagues every single day.
71:43Turn the notification bell on. Don't miss a single video. Thank you for listening. We are out.