Fantasy Football Players That Are GOING OFF In Week 10!
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Nov 14, 2026
Published
Sat, November 14, 2026
16
Player insights
16
Players mentioned
Topics
Chris OlaveChuba HubbardDemario DouglasHunter HenryJa'Marr ChaseJaylen WarrenJoe BurrowKenneth Walker IIIMarvin Harrison Jr.Nico CollinsParker WashingtonTank DellTee HigginsTucker Kraft
Player analysis
Player insights
Chris Olave
PositiveProjection0:53
Over last 11 games: third in yards per game (behind only Puka Nakua and JSN); third in XFP per game; fourth in fantasy points per game (behind Jamar Chase). Averaged 85 yards in 8 of 11 games (8 of 10 excluding Minnesota) with 80% hit rate and nine-plus targets in 9 of 10 games when Minnesota is excluded. Kenneth Walker plans to stack him, noting his 36% route share is low but his target-per-route-run efficiency is strong—he ran way fewer routes than Devon Veil but received the same number of targets and was the number two most targeted receiver.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveMatchup0:46
Faces Saints defense giving up league-high 19.6 rushing fantasy points per game; Saints rank bottom six in yards per carry allowed. Saints have surrendered big games to Steelers, Giants, Tyrone Tracy, Aaron Jones, and Brian Robinson. Matchup is described as way too good.
Insight pageDemario Douglas
PositiveBreakout6:12
Emerged as strong play with 91st percentile separation score and recent elite efficiency: 65 yards 2 TD, 86 yards 1 TD, 76 yards 1 TD, 102 yards over last four games despite limited volume. Finally earned full-time role in week nine (previously 48-55% snap share). With Romeo Dobbs injured and AJ Brown not fully healthy, Douglas has averaged 12 yards per game and 12 fantasy points per game over last five games. Runs 80% of routes from slot; faces Lions defense that ranks fifth most yards per game and fourth most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Top 10 in deep receiving yards for slot receiver (roughly 50% of yards come on deep passes); Lions give up second most yards per game on deep passes with bottom-12 efficiency. Kenneth Walker and Brett both like him as strong play; Walker selects him as anytime touchdown scorer prop, projecting he catches a deep ball and waltzes into end zone.
Insight pageHunter Henry
PositiveMatchup13:33
Faces Lions tight end defense allowing 25.1 fantasy points per game—the worst tight end defense in fantasy football history. Nine different tight ends have scored 13+ fantasy points against them in eight games. Kenneth Walker calls this a great spot for Henry and notes he should be healthier in Week 10.
Insight pageJa'Marr Chase
PositiveMatchup14:57
Favorable matchup against Steelers, who play zone coverage 83% of the time (top-six rate). Chase has been at least 60% better against zone than man coverage for three straight years and ranks top-five against zone since 2024, with 1.59 yards per route run versus 0.57 WR ranking against man. This schematic advantage tilts heavily in his favor. Included in same-game parlay recommendation.
Insight pageJaylen Warren
PositiveMatchup14:09
Perfect schematic matchup against Cincinnati; Bengals are worst in the league against man-gap concept runs, which Warren executes about 50% of the time and is the best running back in football at executing. Kenneth Walker expects Steelers to lean run-heavy again this week, noting Warren is playing out of his damn mind and the matchup is really good. Included in same-game parlay recommendation alongside Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow overs.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
PositiveProjection14:27
Averaging 4.5 touchdowns per game over his last four weeks (Weeks 5, 7, 8, 9), with recent performances of 4 TDs (Week 9: 3 pass, 1 rush), 6 TDs (Week 8: 5 pass, 1 rush), 4 TDs (Week 7: all pass), and 4 TDs (Week 5: all pass). Kenneth Walker compares this pace to Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos era, suggesting elite recent form heading into Week 10. Included in same-game parlay recommendation.
Insight pageKenneth Walker III
NegativeInjury0:34
Dealing with a tight groin and sat out practice Friday; legitimate question mark on playing status this week. One of the top three most valuable running backs and assets in fantasy football, but injury-prone history means ongoing risk even if he plays.
Insight pageMarvin Harrison Jr.
PositiveBust22:08
Kenneth Walker calls Marvin Harrison Jr. a bust, stating "Marvin Harrison Jr. sucks. That was a bad trade," and urges fantasy players to own the mistake rather than try to trade for him. Walker emphasizes that Tank Dell is the priority target in the Texans offense instead.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeInjury22:22
Kenneth Walker expresses concern about Nico Collins' declining target share (26% → 18% → 12% → 18% → 11%) and suspects he is injured, saying "I don't know what's going on with Nico Collins. This is embarrassing... I think he's hurt." The sharp downward trend in usage suggests an underlying health issue affecting his fantasy viability.
Insight pageParker Washington
PositiveProjection11:00
Top-12 yards per route run (2.52, ahead of Alvin Brown and Jamar Chase) and top-12 fantasy points per route run with 79% route share. Despite Jaguars offense limited by low dropback volume (31 per game, dead last), Titans provide elite matchup allowing most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Recent precedent: T. Higgins and Jamar Chase combined for 70 fantasy points last week; KC Concepts, Keenan Allen, and three Texans receivers all hit double digits. Titans are top-12 pass funnel since week four post-Simmons trade. Kenneth Walker projects a 200-yard game for Washington in Week 10 against the Lions with strong conviction.
Insight pageTank Dell
PositiveProjection21:21
Over 33.5 receiving yards recommended as a YOLO parlay leg. In two games played, he has gone over 33.5 yards both times (43 yards, 105 yards), averaging 74 yards per game with a low of 43. He has 24% target share on 53% route share; Kenneth Walker expects route share to increase given Dell's strong play when healthy. Notes that Marvin Harrison Jr. trade was poor, making Dell the priority target in the Texans offense.
Insight pageTee Higgins
PositiveRole22:16
Kenneth Walker highlights Tee Higgins as a strong fantasy asset when healthy, saying "Let's get Tang Dell the ball. A guy who whenever he was healthy was freaking awesome," emphasizing his consistent production when available.
Insight pageTucker Kraft
PositiveMatchup20:10
With Blake Cashman out, Vikings tight end target share jumps from 23% to 35%—the highest of any defense. Kraft has a 4–4.5 reception line at +135 odds. Recent game log shows one catch last week, then six, four, five, six catches in prior games. Route share should increase as he gets more opportunities. Kenneth Walker recommends Kraft overs as a YOLO parlay leg.
Insight pageZach Charbonnet
PositiveMatchup8:48
First-round pick trending toward bellcow status post-ACL surgery with elite matchup against Raiders run defense; Raiders rank dead last in yards per carry allowed, second worst in explosive run rate, dead last in success rate, stuff rate, rushing yards over expectation per carry, yards before contact per attempt, and hit rate. Yards before contact metric is worst ever recorded in fantasy points data history since 2021, 11% worse than next closest defense.
Insight pageZay Flowers
PositiveProjection10:00
Elite yards per route run production across all quarterback situations: 4.29 with Lamar Jackson, 2.44 with Tyler Huntley, 0.44 with Joey Flacco. Despite Flacco's presence indicating a nonfunctional passing game, Flowers' efficiency remains elite compared to Trey McBride and Michael Wilson in the Ravens offense. Kenneth Walker identifies him as an in-season Exodia play with conviction that good things happen when he gets the ball.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Ladies and gentlemen, you are listening to the School of Scott podcast. I'm your host today, Scott Barrett. We're going to be talking about some players I like,
0:08some players I think you might want to bet on this week. You might want to play in DFS players if you have them in your
0:15on your roster. I think you think you might want to start them this week.
0:22>> Are you serious?
0:24>> What?
0:26That's awesome. This is so sick.
0:34But first, first order of business. We have some news to get to. Kenneth Walker, one of the top three most valuable running backs, most valuable
0:42players, most valuable assets in fantasy football, is dealing with a tight groin.
0:46He sat out of practice on Friday, tweaked it, quote unquote. I talked to Jeff Mueller about this. It seems like a
0:53legitimate question mark whether or not he plays. So, what does that mean for you? means you need to pick up Emma
0:58Johnson ASAP. And I know what you're thinking. I know what you're saying.
1:02EMTT Johnson. I drafted Emma Johnson in round 14 and he's been on my bench this entire time. Not my league, pal. Let me
1:11tell you something. Emma Johnson is rostered in only 40% of Yahoo Fantasy Leagues. Not in your league. I'm not talking to you. I'm talking to the other
1:1860% out there. He's not rostered. That's insane. That's crazy. EMTT Johnson, if Kenneth Walker is out this week, is going to have a 16 to 17 point
1:27projection. We're going to basically give him all of the work that Kenneth Walker's been getting the top five most valuable roles in fantasy. And we're
1:36going to give that to Emtt Johnson.
1:37We're just not going to give him five yards per carry like we give Kenneth Walker every week. And so, yeah, 16.5
1:43fantasy points in our projections. If you play DFS, he is a lock button. The field always underreacts to news like this. You just hit the lock button, play
1:53him on every single lineup. Don't overthink it in a reddraft league. Yeah.
1:56And guess what? If Kenneth Walker's fine, this is an injury that can get tweaked again. Uh, now it makes him more
2:02risky moving forward. And Emma Johnson offers league winning potential. Emtt Johnson, you know, Kenneth Walker, we love Kenneth Walker, but that's the
2:09whole thing with Kenneth Walker, right?
2:10Is he's one of the most injuryprone running backs in football. You've owned him this entire time, and it's been awesome, but you've been holding your
2:17breath every single week. So Emtt Johnson, yeah, one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy. And dude, he's been good this year. This is kind of
2:24crazy. He leads all running backs in yards after contact per attempt. It's a small sample for sure, but uh 100 percentile yards after contact per
2:33attempt. 100th percentile yards per route run. Let's see where he ranks by.
2:37This is I mean this is stupid. This is really dumb because it's such a small sample, but it's you know, it's kind of
2:43cool. It's also kind of cool, dude. He's he ranks third in yards per route run uh behind only JSN who I I think should win
2:52MVP and Exodia Mike Evans. Dude, he's he's balling out. And yeah, it's Listen, we're still not going to project five yards per carry. We're going to project
2:59like below average yards per and guess what? The role is that good. Probably gets all the work. Make sure he's rostered. Play him in DFS if depending
3:07on Kenneth Walker's status. All right, let's talk about games we like. Let's talk about teams we like. And I want to
3:14start off with this. Carolina, New Orleans. I think this game goes over.
3:18Maybe you think that's a little too generous for New Orleans. Maybe you like the Panthers. You like kind of all these
3:24advantages they've got. I don't know. I maybe maybe to me I just see 48.5. I think it should be 50.5. 50 51. And I
3:32really like it for DFS. I think it's underrated for DFS. Yeah. You have two of the top five offenses by plays per
3:39game. These games tend to go over. If you're playing in DFS, I like Tyler Shuck. I don't like Bryce Young quite as
3:46much. Why? Because the matchup is way too good for Chuba Hubard. The Saints are giving up a league high 19.6 rushing
3:52fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, yards per carry, their bottom six. They've given up big games to the Steelers, the Giants, Tyrone
4:00Tracy, really. Aaron Jones, really Brian Robinson, really. We're talking about DFS upside. I like it for I will say it's also a really good matchup for T
4:10McMillan. I mean, Jaylen Coker, too, but definitely a little more favorable for the Saints pass because look, they're they're kind of they went super pass
4:18heavy, the Panthers, and they've been kind of hiding Bryce Young a little bit these last few weeks. So, I thought this
4:23was a crazy stat I had in Tyler Shook.
4:25So, I've been saying on this show, you just filter out the Vikings. It's like not fair to face the Vikings. Their
4:31their defense is too good. No one's going to be effective against them. It skews everything a little bit too much.
4:36So, we we throw them out of our sample for all players. All players. Let's let's be fair here. You throw it out.
4:42Tyler Shuck jumps to first in XFP per game. Even by fantasy cuz we know he's not the best quarterback in the world.
4:47Even by fantasy points per game, he's fourth. He's top five. He's above Drake May. So, I like that. We're looking at
4:53Chris Olive. I I've been kind of saying the same thing. So, we're going to look at all wide receivers over their last
5:00say 11 games. This guy checks in. Look at that. He's third in yards per game.
5:04He's behind only Puka Nakua and JSN. XFP per game, third fantasy points per game, fourth behind now Jamar Chase. See how
5:13this goes. Yeah, 85 yards in eight of 11 games. Eight of 10 if you exclude Minnesota, which guys, you got to you
5:20got to exclude Minnesota. 80% hit rate.
5:23Nine plus targets in nine of 10 for excluding Minnesota. So yeah, this is going to be one of my one of my stacks.
5:31Do we play him with Jordan Tyson? Is it too early to play him with Jordan Tyson?
5:34What was the route share? It's 36%.
5:37That's not great. Look at that. Bryce lands 44%. Let's just knock that down to zero. Let's get him up to 80%. Because I
5:44mean, the target per route run is there.
5:46The targets were there. Look, he ran way fewer routes than Devon Veil. Had the same number of targets, was the number
5:52two most targeted receiver. So, yeah. I mean, I feel good about the lobby stack, double stack. He could probably get creative. It'd be really stupid to to
5:59lean on the run in this game. Audrey Estim, are you kidding me? This guy's been on four different teams this year.
6:04Sign him off the couch. Let's not do that. Listen, if you watch the Brett and Scott show, you know we both like Deario
6:12Douglas. Dude, he's kind of nice. Look at this. 91st percentile separation score. Are you kidding me? Let's see what he's done these last few weeks.
6:20Look at that. 65 yards, two touchdowns, 86 yards, one touchdown, flop, whatever.
6:2576 yards, touchdown. 102 yards. And the crazy thing, the volume wasn't even there. He's just going, he's just hyper efficient. But here's the thing. Week
6:34nine, he finally saw wide receiver one target line. Before that, he wasn't even really a full-time player. Not really.
6:4048% 55%. And once he started giving him the full-time role, Romeo Dobs is hurt.
6:45AJ Brown, even if he plays, is not fully healthy. Since week five, he's 12 in yards per game. Look at that. Fantasy
6:53points per game. 12. Not bad. Five F over his last five games. Not bad. So, you see this here, he runs 80% of his
7:01routes from the slot. Well, let's check the matchup, folks. And will you look at that? Lions fifth most yards per game to
7:08slot wide receivers. Fourth most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers.
7:12It's a great matchup. I could go more in depth. Lions getting destroyed deep.
7:16Yeah, you know what? Screw it. Let's check that out. You guys don't believe me? All right, I'll prove you guys wrong. The Detroit Lions defense is
7:23giving up the second most yards per game on deep passes. Their efficiency on deep passes is bottom 12. Deario Douglas, he's a slot wide receiver. You typically
7:35don't see a lot of. So, this is kind of crazy. Dear Douglas, top 10 in deep receiving yards. To make it even
7:42crazier, do you guys know this? You could do this in the data suite. You can just invent your own stats. You don't
7:47ever have to use Excel. I never use Excel anymore. I screwed it up.
7:51Whatever. It's close enough. Yeah, just about 50% of his yards come on deep passes. Kind of crazy for a slot wide
7:56receiver. You don't really see that a lot anymore. Anyway, I really like him.
7:59Brett likes him. He's a good play. Next one. Zack Charbanet. It you guys, if you guys know me, you know how much it pains
8:07me to tell you I like Zack Charbanet.
8:10Probably my single least favorite player in all of football for what he did to us last year. Never forgive. Never forget.
8:16It was not cool. It was stupid and it was it was awful. And I deserve some sort of compensation for that. Uh Zack
8:22Charmin, my lawyers will be in touch.
8:25Okay. All right. But look at this.
8:26Second game back from ACL surgery. 56% snap share 16 of 25 carries let in let in routes 12 of 21 backfield routes two
8:36of six targets listen if you read the everything report the best article reddraft fantasy football article in the space it's paywalled but it's the best
8:44and so it should be paywalled but Grim Barfield Ryan Heath write that and Ryan wrote the Zack Charban section he was
8:51like this is this has sickened me this has shocked me to my core a first round pick engineering price you have Zach
8:57Charbet started trending towards Bellcow status off of a ACL surgery. Listen, I hate the guy. Um, and I don't want to
9:04play him, but he has the match up. He has the match up that we've talked about a few times. You see it here on the
9:09screen. The Raiders rank dead last in yards per carry allowed, second worst in explosive run rate, uh, dead last in success rate, dead last in stuff rate,
9:19dead last in rushing yards over expectation per carry, dead last in yards per before contact per attempt, dead last in hit rate, dead last and
9:27dead last and dead last and dead last and dead last and maybe they're historically bad. It's my guess. Let's test this out, folks. Since 2021, that's
9:36fantasy points data history. how awful they are. Let's do rushing yards. Yeah.
9:41Bottom five all time. Not all time, but all time in R. What about yards before contact? Cuz that's really my favorite.
9:49Worst ever. Boom. Worst ever and still 11% worse than the next closest defense.
9:55So, Zack Charbanet overs. Gh. It is what it is. Next one up, my guy Z Flowers.
10:01You know, I had to do it to them.
10:02Listen, I'm not even going to go into the matchup. Matchup doesn't matter.
10:06It's just this guy is so good. He's so good of I was a I was a disbeliever. He turned me into a believer and he's he's
10:12the man, dude. He's he's freaking awesome. And so look at it. Look at look at this. Joey Faniano, you're trying to
10:18talk to me about has no business being in the NFL. But with Tyler Huntley, 85 yards per game. With Lamar Jackson, 88
10:24yards per game. That's not even a fair assessment because, you know, he was in and out of games so much with injuries,
10:30both of them. But you have a 4.29 yards per route run with Lamar, 2.44 with Tyler Huntley, 0.4 4-3 with Joey
10:38Feniano. What does that tell you? It's a nonviable offense, a nonfunctional passing game. You get Jacobe Brassette in there, how many really good fantasy
10:46weeks were there for Trey McBride, for Michael Wilson. He's going to understand the assignment. The assignment is very simple. You get the ball to Z Flowers.
10:53Good things happen. Overs, ladders, yolo, young money, Z Flowers. That's the inseason Exodia. I'm not giving up hope.
11:00The other Exodia, we got to talk about him, folks. My guy Parker Washington. They're saying, "Scott Barrett, you're washed. You can't
11:08do it anymore. You used to be good. What happened? You used to win me leagues and now now all your picks suck." Well, I'm
11:14looking at all wide receivers by yards per route run. And what do I see? I see Mike Evans wide receiver, too, behind
11:20only JSN. Guys, we're running back with injury luck. He just needs to get healthy. I know, I know there was injury
11:26risk coming into it, but listen, he'll be back for the playoffs. He'll score a bunch of touchdowns. Watch out. say Flowers in season Exodia fourth in yards
11:33per Luther Burden ninth in yards per route 65% route share you know it could be better it's really not awful but this
11:40is the most surprising Parker Washington 2.52 yards per route run that's top 12 ahead of Alman Rossi Brown ahead of Chris Alav ahead of Jamar Chase it's not
11:49the route share he's a 79% route share that's with uh the Jaguars maybe pulling starters in the fourth quarters a couple
11:55times 79% route share he's top 12 in yards per route run he's top 12 in fantasy points per route run. The
12:02problem is this offense. Well, it's not this offense. The problem is the opposition. The opposition is not showing up. And so you see it here on
12:09the screen. The Panthers are running 44 44 dropbacks per game. The Jaguars dead last 31 drop backs per game. They're basically playing three quarters per
12:21game to every other team's four. Like it's embarrassing. And so the problem is you see it on the screen here. Jaguars
12:27are 10 and a half point favorites. This game could be over after the first quarter. Here's your glimmer of hope.
12:32Still a really good matchup on paper.
12:34Tennessee is giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. That's a lot of blowouts and they're still getting killed. T.
12:42Higgins, Jamar Chase just last week, 70 fantasy points combined. KC Concepts goes off. The corpse of Keenan Allen goes off. Three different Texans
12:52receivers hit double digits. Zay Flowers, the most receiving fantasy points per game allowed to wide receiver. Okay, that's good. This where
12:59it really matters. Do you see this? The Titans are a top 12 pass. If you just start from week four, you know, factor
13:06in the Jeffrey Simmons trade, they're the number two pass funnel in football.
13:09It makes sense. You don't have Jeff Jeff Simmons, you know, tracking down your quarterback. You can you could air it out. So, that's my hope. That's my dream
13:16is that even though this game is going to be over after the first quarter, they're going to still lean pass heavy,
13:21lean aggressive. This is the Parker Washington 200yard game. Please, please, please. I need it. I need it. I'm down so bad. Please, please. He's so good.
13:32Let's make it happen. Sign the contract on Saturday and let's get him 200 yards.
13:38Overs, ladders. I believe it's coming.
13:41Next up, we got Hunter Henry up against the Lions. And this one's easy. It's just too easy. Look at this. 25.1
13:48fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Yikes. Look at all these guys going off against them. Nine different tight ends to hit 13 fantasy points
13:55against them in eight games played. You want to know where this ranks historically? This is the worst defense ever against tight ends at least in
14:02fantasy points data history. Next closest still four fantasy points per game behind them. It's a great spot for Hunter Henry. Should be healthier this
14:11week. We have the game of the week. I think it's Sunday Night Football. I mean, do I think this is going to be the
14:16game that scores the most points? No.
14:18I'm just arbitrarily selecting it as the game of the week because I I just found some interesting angles. Sunday Night Football, my former boss, Chris Chris
14:26Collinssworth, how's it going, Chris, really nice guy. I like him a lot, honestly. There's no sarcasm there.
14:32Really, really humble guy who was really really uh nice the one time I met him. I also like him. I think he's a good like
14:38announcer. I think he's he's like fun to me. I I like Chris Collinsworth. He's calling the the game. And so maybe we
14:44should hook him up with a Fantasy Points data subscription. and uh cuz I found some interesting angles he might want to
14:49know about. This is a perfect schematic matchup for Jaylen Warren. So the Bengals, their run defense, they're worst in the league against man gap
14:57concept runs. Against zone runs, they're fifth best. That's kind of crazy. And Jaylen Warren, he's the best running back in football on man gap concept
15:05runs. Runs it about 50% of the time.
15:08It's a really good schematic. I usually don't care about this for running backs, but in this instance, I think this is
15:13kind of big. So, like on paper, you look at the Bengals and you're like, h, it's like a pretty good matchup. And so,
15:19again, we're going back to the pro thing. You've seen the Steelers shift more runheavy in recent weeks. It's really smart of them to do that because,
15:27dude, Jaylen Warren is playing out of his damn mind. So, I I think they lean runheavy again this week. I think that's
15:32smart. I think that's what they should be doing. I think it's a good schematic matchup. Dang stat number two, Cincinnati has a 12 personnel advantage.
15:41So, this chart is courtesy from SF Data Niners. SF Data 9 ERS. Dude, he's been killing it using Fantasy Points data,
15:51cooking up these dank charts. Shout out to him. It's not just 49er stuff. Very minimal 49er stuff. Actually, it's just kind of his handle, but really good uh
16:00data guy. And so, he posted this and I was like, damn. Damn. Look at look at the Bengals all the way up there.
16:06They're playing the second most 12 personnel and they're the second most efficient offense from 12 personnel.
16:13Okay. Okay. Well, how did the Steelers do against 12 personnel and they're hilariously awful? This is one of the best defenses in football, but against
16:2112 personnel, they're bottom 10. They're eighth worst. Against any other personnel grouping, they're third best.
16:28Does that mean this is going to be a big game for Mike Jasiki? No, I don't think it means that at all. I just think, you
16:34know, on paper, tough matchup, but the Bengals match up really well. It's like UFC styles make fights, right? We're gonna see it sat Josh Hoken against
16:43Sirill Gone. I'm very excited for it. Uh Josh Hokit was uh a great running back actually or good enough to make a NFL
16:51practice squad, but he's also a great wrestler. Wrestled Bo Nickel in college, and that's serial G's weakness. So maybe that gives him the leg up. And it's like
17:00that. It's like that. It's the Bengals are great for 12 personnel. Steelers are weak against it and maybe that's their edge. We just talk about Joe Burrow. Joe
17:07Burrow is playing it out of his damn mind. My goodness. Okay. Okay. Okay.
17:12Okay. Let's just see how out of his damn mind. Week nine, four touchdowns, three passing, one rushing. Week eight, six touchdowns, five passing, one
17:21rushing. Week seven, four touchdowns, all passing. Week five, four touchdowns, all passing. The dude's averaging 4.5 touchdowns per game over his last four.
17:30I don't think we've seen that since like Broncos Pton Manning. I'd have to check.
17:34I probably should have checked Maya Kulpa. But uh I'm just, you know, screw it. We're not going to check it. We're
17:39don't fact check me. We're just going to say that that is what it is. Most since Denver Broncos Peyton Manning. I feel
17:45good about that. Shot in the dark. And then dank stat number three. This is weird. This is something we got to ask
17:51Brad about. Steelers play zone 83% of the time. It's a top six rate. Jamar Chase better against zone. And this has
17:58been true for three straight years. He's been at least 60% better against zone than man. And over that entire span, so
18:04since 2024, he's top five against zone.
18:07So wide receiver 57 against man. Kind of crazy. 1.59 yours for really. That's all you're going to do for us, Jamar Chase.
18:16Really? And so I just like these angles.
18:18Uh and I know people like betting these island games. So it was easy to make it game of the week. What are you going to
18:24do? Want to just throw out a little same game parlay. You want to do Jaylen Warren overs, Jamar Chase overs, Joe
18:31Burrow overs? I'll allow it. I like it.
18:33And so now we've reached everyone's favorite part of the episode, the YOLO Young Money Parlay. That's right, folks.
18:42I'm going to be dishing out a parlay.
18:44It's not a safety parlay. We're being a little aggressive here. We're going to bet $10 to win 300, but don't you worry.
18:50I feel good about all four of these legs hitting for us. The first I'm stealing from my guy Nick Football Insights on Twitter. Elite analyst. I So
19:00like Ryan Heath is the is the best in the game. Ryan Heath, shout out the golden boy. He's the best. And he's the
19:07best because he he knows it all. He knows he's analyzed it from every angle.
19:12He knows the right way to do it. He's become a master. He knows how when to break the rules and he's fairly
19:18innovative. I place a premium on that. I like the guys who go out on a ledge, say things you're not hearing anywhere else,
19:24and then are right. And so Nick is really good at that. He writes an article for us. I don't think there's a
19:29pay wall on it actually. Coverage shells. Uh I know a lot of the best I dude I I I'm the CEO. I track page
19:36views. Doesn't get a ton of page views.
19:38Uh but it's so good. And like the people who read it, DFS players who've won millions of dollars swear by it. They
19:44think it's a great article. I think it's a great article. So anyway, uh, dude, he I'll just read his article or we'll talk
19:51in DMs and he has good angles and this one was Blake Cashman's out for the Vikings. That's a big it's a big loss
19:57for the Vikings. Since the start of last season, the Vikings defense is worse without him. Okay, obviously, but when he's off the field, what do you see down
20:05here? You see see a real surge in targets to the tight end position.
20:10Target share to tight ends jumps from 23% to 35%. running backs see a jump 16% to 22%. You could look at it this way,
20:18too. By in line, your your target share doubles. That's really interesting. All right. 35% target share to tight ends.
20:25Where would that So, we're dealing with a small sample here. That would be the most of any defense. We're talking about
20:31picking on the the Lions or always picking on the Bengals. Vikings without Cman would be highest. And so, like I said, I'm stealing this one from Nick
20:41and it's going to be Tucker Craft overs.
20:44Tuckercraft overs. We have a four four and a half reception line which like honestly like seems fair if you just look back. So, he float last week only
20:54one catch and then before that six four five six four. So, he's really right around there. The odds on this are good.
21:02It's plus 135. So, it's a little bit favorable to us. And overs are more fun.
21:06me like overs. You see the route share jump, you know, they that was the big quote was, you know, from Tucker Craft
21:12himself was like once we hit the halfway point, they're going to slap me on the ass and say, "All right, you're full
21:18good. Go. You're you're good to go now.
21:20We're going to heavily target you."
21:22Yeah. And I think it makes sense to do that in this matchup. Blake Cashman being out tilts everything more towards his favor. The next one, Tank Dell over
21:3133.5 receiving yards. I mean, he's played two games. He's been over that in two games. The first game he only ran
21:39four routes and he went over that. He went over that. He had 43 yards. Last week, 105 yards. He's technically averaging 74 yards per game with a low
21:48of 43. We have a 33 and a half over.
21:51Obviously, it doesn't work like that.
21:53You can get kind of spooked here seeing that 53% route share. Uh I'm kind of more of a glass half full guy. Nine
22:01targets and only 53% of the routes. 24% target share. The round share has to come up, right? Look how how great he's
22:08playing. So, round share should come up.
22:10Marvin Harrison Jr. sucks. That was a bad trade. Own it. Don't try and get him on the Xavier Hutchinson sucks. Don't We
22:16don't need to do that. Let's get Tang Dell the ball. A guy who whenever he was healthy was freaking awesome. I don't
22:22know what's going on with Nico Collins.
22:23This is embarrassing. Uh 26% target share drops to 18% to 12% to 18% to 11%.
22:30I think he's hurt. I think he's hurt.
22:32Why? because that's what makes the most sense. And so, yeah, Tangell 24% target share. That was more than Nico Collins has had in Okay, only two games this
22:40year. Yeah. Next one is Trey Tucker.
22:43Over 26 and a half receiving yards. So, he was over that in week one. Way over it week two. Three, four, five, six,
22:51seven, nine. So, he's over that in eight and nine games. Over 26 and a half receiving yards. That's the line.
22:57Listen, I know we think like I was making the argument. I'm like Kirk Cousins is perfect for Trey Tucker because he's his new Darnell Mooney. He
23:05loves that that deep deep threat, undersized deep threat. But I mean, I think this is an overcorrection down to the rookie. Fernando Mendoza, dude.
23:12Brett love Fernando Mendoza. And you know, I'm a big Clint Kubak guy. You see it here on the screen. Look at that. The
23:18Clint Kubak effect. All these guys had their career years with Clint Kubak.
23:23He's done a remarkable job. So, we're going to throw Trey Tucker into the parlay. We got three legs down. One more
23:30to go. What is it? It's Deario Douglas.
23:32Anytime touchdown scorer, I think he gets he catches a deep ball. Waltzes into the end zone. That's your four legs. Tucker Craft over receptions.
23:41Tanked out over receiving yards. Trey Tucker over receiving yards. Deari Douglas anytime touchdown scorer. That's
23:49plus 2868 on FanDuel. You bet $10. You win 300. We'll say it's a half a unit.
23:56Scared money. Don't Don't make money.
23:58So, I hope you enjoyed this. Today's today's show is sponsored by Fantasy Points Data. It's really remarkable. You know, maybe it's not for you, but it's
24:05really just like what the NFL teams paid six figures for two years ago, 3 years ago, and it's only $200 a year if you're
24:13a data nerd. It's just it's just it's like my favorite thing. I mean, I I do this for a living, but uh I don't know,
24:19it's just really cool. And so, if I don't know if you're into that, if not, thanks for thanks for watching the
24:25video. See you guys next week. Heat.
24:27Heat.
