JJ Zachariason's Fantasy Football Strategy and Late Round QB Picks (My Guys)
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
50 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Jul 30, 2026
Published
Thu, July 30, 2026
20
Player insights
20
Players mentioned
Topics
Anthony RichardsonBo NixChase BrownDaniel JonesDrake MayeJalen HurtsJared GoffJayden DanielsJoe BurrowJonathan TaylorJosh AllenJustin FieldsKyler MurrayLamar Jackson
Player analysis
Player insights
Anthony Richardson
NegativeProjection35:29
Dart's 6.7 yards per pass attempt last season may improve modestly to around 7 yards per pass attempt with Nabers healthy on the field, suggesting a slight efficiency gain but not a dramatic spike.
Insight pageBo Nix
PositiveSleeper6:06
Bo Nix has underrated rushing upside that makes him an interesting late-round QB option. While he cannot match Lamar Jackson's rushing production, he can reliably deliver over 3.5 rushing points per game, providing a clear floor for a late-round dual-threat QB. JJ Zachariason recommends Nix as a stable secondary QB option to pair with higher-ceiling late-round targets like Malik Willis in season-long leagues, providing a floor while Willis offers ceiling upside.
Insight pageChase Brown
PositiveRole23:48
JJ Zachariason likes Chase Brown in 2025 because the Cincinnati offense provides stability and predictability amid NFL-wide chaos with new coordinators, schemes, and offensive lines elsewhere. Brown benefits from continuity in the Bengals system and has upside baked into that expectation, making him a relative value play in a volatile offensive landscape.
Insight pageDaniel Jones
NegativeProjection11:07
Daniel Jones is hard-capped around QB16 ADP (Jared Goff range) with rushing TD upside but significant downside concerns. Coming off an Achilles injury, he scored five rushing touchdowns last year and had decent fantasy points per dropback, which would place him in the lower QB2 range if healthy all season. However, JJ Zachariason is "scared out of my mind" about the Colts' offensive outlook; the team was first in the league in EPA per drive through week 10 last year but that level of performance is not anticipated to repeat. Loss of Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce's health issues compound the concern, and the Achilles injury recovery risk adds uncertainty to his rushing floor.
Insight pageDrake Maye
NegativeProjection1:25
Drake Maye exemplified the successful late-round QB strategy from last season, available late in drafts (round 8-9) and proving to be a slam-dunk pick with elite dual-threat upside. However, he has a touchdown rate that will likely regress this season, making him a fade candidate in late-round QB strategy where touchdown efficiency regression is a key identifying factor for the upcoming year.
Insight pageJalen Hurts
PositiveValue17:25
JJ Zachariason identifies Jalen Hurts as the better value pick between Lamar Jackson and Hurts, projecting he will go 2+ rounds later than Lamar in home leagues due to last year's poor perception. Despite the Eagles hitting lows in every offensive efficiency metric last year, Zachariason sees upside: Hurts posted 5.6 PPG via rushing but had significantly fewer designed runs due to Kevin Petullo's reduced creativity (RPO rate dropped from 13–19% to 10%, with 40 fewer designed runs year-over-year). Zachariason frames this as a make-or-break year where Petullo's scheme changes were the key reason for the decline, implying potential recovery if the offense improves. Vegas projects the Eagles offense to score 1.5 more points per game year-over-year, supporting bounce-back potential. Zachariason is high on Hurts this year, especially if getting a discount based on last year's underperformance, and expects the Eagles won't hold back his mobile role this season. Market score has him as QB2 behind Josh Allen, though Zachariason disagrees with that ranking.
Insight pageJared Goff
NegativeRole61:47
Goff is presented as an alternative stable secondary QB option to pair with a rushing-upside QB like Malik Willis in season-long leagues, offering a reliable floor alongside Willis's ceiling potential.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveProjection26:43
JJ Zachariason is bullish on Jayden Daniels as a bounce-back candidate with significant upside. In 20 career games with 85%+ snap share, Daniels averaged QB2 PPG at 22.4 over two seasons—only Josh Allen has averaged more. Despite worse passing metrics last season (completion percentage over expected down 5 points, success rate down 1.5 points), Zachariason emphasizes Daniels' rushing prowess (0.7 PPR per rush, ~6 PPG rushing) and the range-of-outcomes advantage of mobile QBs. He ranks Daniels ahead of Joe Burrow because of higher ceiling if things click, noting Daniels could throw 25 TDs while still outscore Burrow due to run-game involvement. New coaching staff (no Kliff Kingsbury) provides fresh opportunity. Daniels burned people last season due to injuries and underperformance, but Zachariason is confident in 2025 recovery and upside relative to Burrow's ADP premium.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeValue22:40
Joe Burrow is the only pocket passer truly priced up this season, going consistently in the sixth round (QB4 ADP). JJ Zachariason fades him despite acknowledging strong Cincinnati offense stability and first-time offensive line continuity. Burrow's 6.6% TD rate (career-high) is unsustainable; he averaged under 2 rushing points per game over three years, placing him in non-mobile QB archetype. Historical data: 12 QBs drafted top-10 since 2014 with sub-2 rushing PPG and 6%+ TD rate averaged 2 PPG below ADP expectation; only 4 of 12 outperformed. Zachariason prefers mobile QBs (Hurts, Daniels) at similar price ranges, though notes Burrow has bucked trends before (like Derrick Henry or Tyreek Hill) and remains the best traditional pocket passer option. He acknowledges Burrow could post a 45-TD season and win MVP, but prefers Daniels in the range-of-outcomes game because mobile QBs offer more ceiling upside.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeInjury15:34
JJ Zachariason expresses concern about Jonathan Taylor's Achilles injury coming into the season, citing it as a downside risk factor for the Colts RB alongside the broader offensive decline (Colts were first in EPA per drive through 10 weeks last year but that level of performance is not anticipated to repeat).
Insight pageJosh Allen
NegativeValue1:25
Josh Allen is the consensus QB1 with exceptional historical consistency, finishing QB1 in points per game in 4 of the last 5 years and leading all players in touchdowns scored. However, he is now a third-round pick year-over-year, making him expensive relative to late-round QB alternatives. JJ Zachariason advises against spending up on Allen; the opportunity cost is too high in 14-16 team leagues with flex spots where the demand for running back and wide receiver shifts, making it more difficult to justify a premium QB pick when dual-threat QBs can be found late. In softer 10-team leagues where roster optimization is more critical, spending up on Allen makes more sense.
Insight pageJustin Fields
NegativeProjection64:14
Fields serves as a cautionary historical comparison for rushing-dependent QBs; he had a spike week to start last season but fell off a cliff after the Bills game in week two, illustrating the volatility and downside risk of relying on rushing-dependent QBs despite their ceiling potential.
Insight pageKyler Murray
PositiveRole8:17
Kyler Murray has legitimate rushing upside in the Cardinals' pocket scheme. JJ Zachariason fully believes Kyler will be the starter all season despite some uncertainty around his full-season availability, making him a viable late-round dual-threat QB option with rushing floor.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection1:17
Lamar Jackson anchors the mid-round QB cluster (rounds 5-6) and represents the inflection point in QB strategy; his 2019 MVP season fundamentally changed the fantasy landscape by proving dual-threat QBs' rushing production is far more predictive year-over-year than passing points (R-squared of rushing points is more than double that of passing points). JJ Zachariason notes Lamar's rushing consistency is sticky and reliable: 'Lamar's going to do the same thing year in and year out' with rushing production that far exceeds pocket passers like Jared Goff. While this rushing upside will eventually tail off, it has not yet, making him a reliable elite QB option despite potential long-term decline in predictability. Lamar is going cheaper year-over-year with about a round difference in ADP between him and Jalen Hurts, offering value relative to prior seasons. Zachariason projects Lamar to look better this year than last year and recommends him as a premium QB target in smaller leagues (8-team) where the edge at QB is more valuable, though he prefers Jalen Hurts as the better value since Lamar will go 2+ rounds earlier in home leagues.
Insight pageMalik Nabers
PositiveInjury30:23
Malik Nabers' health status has been a positive surprise in training camp; JJ Zachariason and most analysts expected he would not be close to fully healthy by September, but he appears to be tracking ahead of schedule. This improved health trajectory is expected to move him up in draft order, closer to the 2–3 turn in upcoming weekend drafts. Nabers suffered a knee injury early in the season after playing only about a quarter and a half of the Chargers game last year, limiting his availability as a target for Jackson Dart and preventing an efficiency spike in the passing game. With Nabers now healthy, this should make observers even more excited about Dart's upside going forward.
Insight pageMalik Willis
PositiveSleeper11:07
Malik Willis is JJ Zachariason's top undervalued QB pick and the absolute break-glass-in-case-of-emergency late-round QB option. In three starts over the last two seasons with Green Bay, Willis averaged more rushing yards per game than Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson has in his career, with exceptional fantasy points per dropback in that small sample (averaging 11.8–12 points per game from rushing alone). At ADP past QB20, Willis offers elite rushing upside that can be paired with a stable secondary QB in season-long leagues, providing exceptional upside with minimal downside in managed formats. Zachariason notes there's no easier click than Willis in a managed season-long league, though the Miami receiver room is historically weak and passing production is uncertain.
Insight pageMatthew Stafford
NegativeProjection5:38
Matthew Stafford exemplifies the unpredictable pocket passer archetype and serves as a cautionary tale on TD rate regression. He had a touchdown rate over 7% last season that will regress; JJ Zachariason expects him to finish QB8-12 in home leagues and advises against drafting him at his current ADP due to regression risk. Stafford last year delivered an outlier TD rate that was relatively unpredictable, and similar random pocket passers will likely emerge this season (1-2 expected) but are harder to identify in advance. The market has become sharper on this fade than it was five years ago.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeProjection13:35
Patrick Mahomes is facing rushing regression risk and efficiency decline despite career-high rushing production last year. Mahomes scored 5.2 fantasy points per game via rushing in 2024 (previous high 3.5), a major driver of his fantasy relevance. However, JJ Zachariason sees limited upside vs. alternatives: Kenneth Walker's addition to the Chiefs suggests a run-heavy offensive shift, reducing Mahomes' rushing opportunities. Mahomes has not been able to replicate the efficiency from his first five seasons, posting a 4.5% touchdown rate and 7 yards per pass attempt in recent seasons, well below his early-career marks. Zachariason questions why to feel confident in Mahomes over Brock Purdy or Bo Nix given his ADP and tier, noting Mahomes had years as a "streaming Frankenstein type player." He's dropped Mahomes in best ball and won't target him early, ranking him QB13–QB14 in projections vs. QB11 ADP due to name-value overpricing.
Insight pageTrevor Lawrence
PositiveSleeper10:47
Trevor Lawrence was identified as a late-round QB target based on previous season fantasy points per dropback, a metric the market doesn't factor in as heavily as it should when evaluating late-round QB value.
Insight pageTua Tagovailoa
NegativeUsage30:46
Tagovailoa scrambled extensively last year, bolstering his fantasy value with rushing production, though the Dolphins may try to dial back scrambles to keep him healthy. His passing numbers underneath the hood were right around league average in accuracy.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Yo, what is going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily. I am Graham Barfield joined by JJ Zachariason. And I got to
0:06tell you guys, I've been really excited all week. Super pumped to do this show with JJ.
0:12Mr. Late-Round Quarterback. It's good to have you on the show, man. JJ, you just dropped your draft guide a few weeks
0:19ago. It is time to go. Training camps are firing, and I figured it'd be a perfect time to have you on the pod.
0:25Thanks for joining, man.
0:26>> [music] >> Yeah, man. Thanks for having me, as
0:37always. Always Always good to talk a little ball with you.
0:40>> Yeah, it's uh it's always fun talking to JJ. Always interesting to hear his insights and thoughts. Uh of course, we
0:46have to talk quarterback, and that's exactly what we're going to be doing on today's show. We're going to be going through the 2026 quarterback market, and
0:53then we'll get into some player takes, and kind of how JJ is seeing this market, some players that he's targeting, maybe a few players he's
1:00fading at some elevated cost, and we'll go through, of course, his favorite late-round quarterback. JJ, let's get started, man. We'll get started on just
1:09general strategy for this season.
1:12Quarterback 2 through 5 is a little cheaper in ADP than in previous years.
1:17It feels like there's a big cluster of quarterbacks starting with Lamar Jackson in rounds five going into round six.
1:25Lamar kind of gets that started, then we've got Drake May, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow going through that pocket. Josh Allen is the consensus quarterback one.
1:34Dude, he just keeps doing it every year.
1:36He finished quarterback one in points per game in what, four out of the last five years? Leads all players in touchdowns scored. Don't think we really
1:43need to spend a whole lot of time on Allen as like the clear QB1, but I did want to kind of pick your thoughts on
1:48just general market strategy this year.
1:50Are you like going into that kind of quarterback 2 through 5 pocket? I know you in years past, JJ, you've been a
1:57little more interested in more of these mid-round quarterbacks than in years past.
2:01>> Yeah, you know, I think that like answering this question is important to like think about what we've seen at quarterback over the last I mean,
2:08basically since I started doing this.
2:10You know, I I published the late-round quarterback ebook back in like 2012. So, it's been like 14, 15 years since I
2:16started sort of digging into the position. And what I like to do every year is look at top 18 quarterbacks by
2:22ADP and look at their postseason result and find the R-squared between that essentially, right? You're looking at uh how how much of the variance could be
2:32explained in points per game by where these guys were being drafted. And back in like 2015, 2016, the the R-squared was basically zero most years. You know,
2:42it's very close to zero where there was no correlation between where we were drafting these top 18 quarterbacks and how well they performed. It sounds
2:49crazy, but the reason for that is number one, the market [clears throat] wasn't quite as sharp at the biggest part of it, but the other part of it is
2:57that we didn't have as many dual-threat passers. And and that's really, really important because I think that the the whole fantasy landscape changed after Lamar
3:06Jackson's first MVP season in 2019. So, like that year, you know, everyone every fantasy analyst was on Lamar. You know, we were all shouting from the rooftops
3:14that he was an easy late-round quarterback pick. And then obviously, he dominates fantasy football. He gives us a a historic season. And then that next
3:21year, if you look at the R-squared that you know, the same thing I was looking at before top 18 quarterbacks by how
3:26many points they actually scored, that R-squared was was a lot higher than previous seasons. And then in 2021, it got even higher from there. But since
3:342021, Graham, every year it's actually progressively gotten lower that R-squared. And I think the reason for that is something that I would get
3:42questions all the time because you know, my my strategy started to flip after Lamar the Lamar season cuz I could see the market sentiment start
3:49to change in the way that they were viewing, you know, like after that season all of the the mobile quarterbacks were finally being drafted
3:56early. And the reason why, for the record, that mobility matters for this kind of analysis is because it's so much stickier year over year than passing
4:03numbers are. Like, if you look at the the the the R squared of of rushing points per game one year versus
4:10the next, it's more than double what you get for passing points per game at the quarterback position. It's far, far more
4:15predictive. And it makes sense, right?
4:17Cuz like Jared Goff could see some volatility through the air, but you know for a fact that Jared Goff is not going
4:22to put as many as many rushing points per game up as a Lamar Jackson will, right? Lamar's going to do the same
4:27thing year in and year out. It'll eventually, you know, likely tail off, but it hasn't yet. And so, what we've seen over the last 5 years or so is this
4:35like gradual decline in R squared. And I think the reason for that is sort of the, you know, going back to what I was
4:40saying, that that people have been asking like, and they would ask me year after year, like, what's it going to take for late-round quarterback to be
4:46the the the optimal strategy again?
4:48Because it was clearly not like it was fine if you went late. Like, there was always a quarterback that we liked
4:53essentially every year. Jalen Hurts, you know, Drake Maye last year, Jayden Daniels. Like, there was always a dude that we could draft late. But I think
5:00that, you know, my my answer to that was always, once we get a large, large number of true dual-threat quarterbacks that have a legitimate shot to be like a
5:08top three quarterback in fantasy football, that's when we can say, "Okay, there's no reason to spend up, you know, at for for for even a Josh Allen or a
5:16Lamar or whomever, because we know we can wait, wait, wait, wait, wait." And if there's 12 of them, that's 12 teams
5:21in your league, you know that teams are likely not going to be taking backups, so you can just get, or at least early
5:26on, so you can just wait, right? And you can play that game of chicken to get that QB12. I think we're getting close
5:31to that. I think we're getting close to this area where like we have a lot of dual-threat passers who legitimately have top three quarterback upside. And
5:38I'm not talking about like like On top of that, you're going to get the random pocket passer like Matthew Stafford last
5:44year, where you get a a relatively unpredictable touchdown rate outlier season, those guys are going to be valuable, too. Like, we're going to get one or two
5:53of them probably this year. It's just harder to predict who that player's going to be, but you just look at the
5:57top 18 to 22 quarterbacks this year, and like 75% of them, if not more, have some sort of base that they're giving you
6:06with their legs. I'm talking, you know, I'm not saying that like, you know, Bo Nix can match Lamar Jackson, but I'm
6:11saying that we know that Nix can give you over three and a half points per game with his legs. Tyler Shuck, same
6:17deal. You know, Jackson Dart, what we saw last year. So, there's all these players that have been coming into the league that are giving us this
6:23dual-threat ability. So, I think we're at a point where you know, there are definitely certain times where drafting Josh Allen makes a lot of sense. I
6:30always tell people like if it's a softer league, if you're in a 10-team league, for instance, where every roster needs to be really optimal and
6:37really good, it's a lot easier to go after a guy like Josh Allen, right? But, if you're in a 14-teamer or a 16-teamer,
6:43and it's got a lot of flex spots where the demand for running back and wide receiver shifts, that opportunity cost is a lot more difficult to take on for a
6:49player like Allen. So, you know, this is more of a season-long take. I think in best ball, it's a little bit different
6:54just given opportunity cost and yada yada yada, but my overall sentiment this year is I think that we're back like in
7:01a in an area where like late-round quarterbacking is is a pretty pretty solid move.
7:06>> This is something I've been saying all off season, JJ. Same thing. It's just like I'm seeing it kind of similarly
7:11where this looks like one of the best late-round quarterbacks years we've had in in in a long time. And yeah, you
7:17know, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, two players that we were very high on, as well, at here at Fantasy Points in '24
7:22and '25. Those were two of our standout players, as well, to kind of target, but they weren't true late-round quarterbacks.
7:28We're talking about players that were like, you know, round nine or later.
7:31Daniels was going consistently like round eight, round nine. Drake Maye, same thing last season, and both were just like slam dunk picks. So, I think
7:39what you're seeing and and what you're seeing in the R-squared data, the the you know, kind of how correlated, you know, basically price is to production.
7:47It's it's two things. It's Yeah, you're right. The price um, you know, mobile quarterbacks has kind of come up uh, significantly. You know, we're just
7:56paying uh, you know, year-over-year Josh Allen is now a third-round pick. Lamar Jackson, like I said, is going a little cheaper this year year-over-year. It's
8:03about a round difference between he and uh, Jalen Hurts. But there's just a Quarterback is really deep this season, it feels like, man. It's like I'm not
8:11like you you mentioned Bo Nix and I I agree with you, but he has like some underrated rushing upside. That's kind
8:17of been like up and down for sure with him. We've also got players like Kyler Murray who We'll see if he starts all
8:23season. I fully believe that Kyler will be the the starter all season, but Kyler's got some legitimate rushing upside in that pocket. Uh, let's talk
8:31through like what you are looking for with late-round quarterbacks. Is it solely the rushing upside or, you know, I know you've you've always talked about
8:38for a number of years, you know, you we want to fade the touchdown efficiency.
8:41Touchdown rates always regress. Drake Maye has a touchdown rate that will likely regress. Matthew Stafford certainly has a touchdown rate at over
8:487% last season that will regress. But what are some of the kind of key identifying factors that you look for when you're drafting quarterbacks past
8:56say round 9 or 10?
8:58>> Yeah, you know, it's it's stuff that I uh, I try to study in the draft guide every year where I look at uh, ADP
9:04expectations. So how many points per game we expect a player to score at a certain ADP and I sort of look at
9:10players who do really well versus ADP expectation historically and players who don't do well. And then I try to find traits that the market might not be
9:16counting is essentially what that's saying, right? And so when you look at late-round quarterbacks, one of the most obvious things is is what you noted was
9:23just look at touchdown rate. And it's it's the inverse of what you think. So uh, actually uh, later-round quarterbacks quarterbacks in general in
9:30every pocket of your draft, uh, if they had high touchdown rates the previous season, they actually underperform versus ADP expectation at a higher rate
9:38than the players who had low touchdown rates the previous season, which makes sense cuz it's a regression-based thing.
9:43And the players who have high touchdown rates 1 year will generally get boosted in ADP the next year, even though they
9:49probably shouldn't. Um, you know, I do want to say though that the market has gotten so much sharper with this. Like,
9:55Matthew Stafford 5 years ago, dude would have easily been like in Joe Burrow territory. Yeah, he would have been like QB7 or QB8. Yeah. Easily. Easily. And
10:03so, I I give you know, people props for that where it's like not as easy of a fade. Like, I think Matthew Stafford is
10:09generally cuz like, you know, I'm I'm writing to people also who could be in home leagues or what have you. And I
10:15think Stafford's going to end up being like a QB8 to 12 pretty consistently in that kind of environment. And so, I'm
10:20like, yeah, like don't draft him there.
10:21There's no reason to draft him there.
10:23Um, but you can even see like with your tiers and how you guys are looking at things right now, just such a giant tier
10:28there. I don't think that you need to like force it with Matthew Stafford because there's going to be some regression that's coming. So, that's one
10:33thing where look at that previous season touchdown rate uh, and actually be gravitated and and and lean towards the guys who have lower touchdown rates
10:40versus higher touchdown rates because that does regress. Another thing that you can find with with late-round quarterbacks that got me onto, I mean,
10:47aside from the Liam Cohen effect, but got me on Trevor Lawrence last year is previous season fantasy points per dropback. Uh, this is something that I
10:53know you guys look at a lot, too. But actually, the market doesn't uh, you know, just based on ADP and expectation
10:59and and uh, finding sort of these edges that the market might not be factoring in. Um, that's one thing that the market
11:06doesn't necessarily factor in that much.
11:07There's not a ton of obvious looks this year within that, but there are two. I think the two would be Malik Willis,
11:14which is not a surprise. Um, you know, just based on what he did in a small sample with Green Bay. And then the
11:19other one is is Daniel Jones, who's coming off the Achilles. So, there's reason why he's being drafted as late as he is. But I also think with Dimes, it's
11:26like where do we think he would go even if he were healthy for most of the year?
11:30You know, people just have a sour taste in their mouth about about dimes in general. Like I still think he'd probably be in that like maybe you know,
11:37he'd obviously be higher, but in that like lower QB2 type range anyway, because he's just not as interesting of a pick. Um, but he he was not bad uh
11:46from a from a fantasy points per dropback perspective last year within the realm of like the things you're looking cuz like late round
11:51quarterbacks, you're not going to get good fantasy points per dropback numbers in general, but his were at least decent last year as someone to call out. But
11:57Malik Willis, I mean, my gosh, he was just absurd you know, per dropback in what he did in the three games with
12:03Green Bay last year.
12:05>> Yeah, Malik Will Yeah, Malik Willis is really interesting to me as well as a as the true like late round quarterback target this year. I
12:12think in general, that's what we're looking for is these guys who okay, maybe they don't have the best passing upside, but the Konami code upside that
12:19that Rich Rebars talked about for all these years, the true rushing you know, ceiling. Malik Willis in three starts over the last two seasons, he's averaged
12:27more rushing yards per game than Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson has in his career.
12:32I'm very into Malik Willis as like the absolute break glass in case of emergency late round quarterback this season. He does project really well for
12:40us. JJ, I want to circle back to the point you made about just efficiency in general. At most positions, I think
12:46chasing efficiency unless it's like somebody like Derrick Henry who just always always exceeds his fantasy points expectation. In general, chasing efficiency at running back or receiver
12:56is kind of a fool's errand and it can lead you down some some you know, kind of tricky pathways, but with
13:02quarterbacks in general, you're right.
13:03It is one of the most correlated things that we have to fantasy production. You mentioned Daniel Jones. I think Daniel Jones would be going earlier, but I
13:11think he would be like hard capped at like right around Jared Goff like QB 16 in ADP. And I got to ask you, I mean,
13:17coming off the Achilles injury, he did score five rushing touchdowns last year, had a few scrambles here and there.
13:24Have you thought more like about you know, how the regress in terms of their rushing coming back from injury and in
13:29particular like how does that affect your opinion for Daniel Jones and someone like Patrick Mahomes last year.
13:35Mahomes had a career high in rushing yards per game and a career high in touchdowns as well.
13:39>> Yeah, I'm scared out of my mind if I'm if I'm being honest. You know, like it's it's it's a it's a very scary I think
13:44Mahomes is someone like just based off of where he typically goes and where I have him ranked and given you know that
13:50tier of players where I just think it's deep and you could like to me I don't know if there's a massive massive
13:57difference in outcome and I know it's going to sound crazy but a massive difference in outcome between like Mahomes and Bo Nix in fantasy football
14:04this year. You know, like and I I don't say that because I think Mahomes is a worse quarterback. Of course I don't
14:08think that but uh you look at like every move that they made this off season.
14:12They didn't really do that much with their wide receiver room. They get Kenneth Walker. Um I I think there's a very real chance that they lean a little
14:20bit more run heavy. You have a really you know high success rate type offense uh because you're going to face a lot of
14:25two high and Kenneth Walker's that ex- explosive home run hitter. I mean it's a match made in heaven from from the
14:30perspective of like what he could do on the ground and bring to that football team. And the other thing with Mahomes
14:35last year, he scored 5.2 fantasy points per game via rushing. His previous high was 3.5 and that was a huge reason we
14:43saw Mahomes you know get back to being fantasy relevant. And I I don't know I I I I feel like with Mahomes in particular
14:48it's like we just kind of assume that he's continued to like go down this path of being an excellent fantasy asset but
14:54there were a couple years in there where he was literally a streaming like the equivalent of a of a streaming Frankenstein type player, right? So, um
15:02I'm just not I'm not going to like if he falls I'll get him. I mean I've dropped him in best ball cuz you just go after
15:07correlation and such in that environment but to me I don't know why we would feel confident of Mahomes versus Purdy or
15:14Mahomes versus Bo Nix or Mahomes versus you know, and so I it's just not someone that I've really gone after. And then
15:19with the the the Colts and and Daniel Jones, you know, I brought him up just cuz he was the only one that like kind
15:24of stood out from a fantasy points per dropback perspective. And I I do think that when you're that late in drafts, it
15:29doesn't really matter about floor. And so, if you are in an environment where you have deep enough benches and you can
15:34just kind of throw a dart as a QB2, maybe you pair him with like a a Knicks or something like that, you know, where
15:39there's more stability. I think that's that's an okay thing to do, but I'm scared out of my mind about the the
15:44Colts offense this year. I mean, through that point in time, like through the first like I think it was 10 weeks of
15:48the season last year, they were first in the league >> per drive. I mean, it's just not something that we should anticipate
15:54happening again. With him coming off the Achilles scares me a little bit about Jonathan Taylor, too, to a degree. Um and so, yeah, I mean, like you lose
16:02Michael Pittman, too. Uh Alec Pierce isn't healthy right now. There's definitely some downside risk with a guy like Jones, but again, you're not paying
16:08for that. Whereas, I do think, you know, of course, like a double-digit round pick or like a ninth-round pick from Mahomes wherever he ends up going in in
16:15your league, it's not that significant.
16:17I mean, don't get me wrong, but it is significant if you think about the opportunity cost of the other quarterbacks that are in that range. Cuz
16:22there's going to be more than likely two or three of them in that range that probably hit.
16:27>> Yeah, the Chiefs have just not been a good fantasy offense for 3 years, really. They've kind of just been a
16:33middling offense for fantasy. They've ranked 10th in scoring drives two seasons, and then last year they were 15th in scoring drives. Mahomes just has
16:42not been able to replicate the the efficiency that he had in his first five seasons. He's been right around a 4.5%
16:48touchdown rate and right around 7 yards per pass attempt. I'm just with JJ. I think he is slightly overpriced, a little name value overpricing at QB11.
16:57We have him ranked at QB13 or QB14 in our projections. I'm with him on I'm with with him on that. And I think it is
17:03an opportunity cost thing, cuz you're right, there is two or three quarterbacks in that bucket that are most likely going to be massive advance
17:10rate players in that bucket. Let's circle back though to that QB2 to kind of QB5 pocket, JJ. I got to pick your brain. If you are like
17:17really like let's say you just like hit home runs your first four picks. You just like got you know, two good running
17:23backs, maybe one of them way past ADP.
17:25You got two solid receivers you feel very good about. Are you splurging for Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts this season in round five, round six in those types
17:33of builds?
17:34>> So, I So, it's it's tough. You know, I do think that the environment that you're in will matter. You know, if
17:40you're in and this is where like, you know, I I I've I've heard it for years and years where people are like, "Oh, if
17:45I'm in a bigger league, like I want a bigger edge at quarterback or a bigger edge at tight end. So, I'm going to go
17:50after the one-Z positions, you know, in that environment." But, you should be doing the opposite of that because you're doubling the amount of running
17:56backs and wide receivers that you're starting in that in that league. Like if you're in an eight-team league, that's when you go for Josh Allen, you go for
18:02Lamar Jackson, all that kind of stuff. I do think that both Lamar and Jalen Hurts are set to look better this year than
18:09they did last year, for sure. You know, um you know, I I I've gotten a lot of them in in best ball, for instance. Like
18:16I just think that that range just given that kind of format, the the opportunity cost a little bit different in general because you know
18:23that you don't have to find the overly predictable players at wide receiver and running back that you have to throw in
18:29your lineup each week and like think about what their projection's going to be. You just know that you can get guys
18:33in the 12th, 13th, 14th round that might be able to slide into your lineup. So, it's a little bit easier to take on that
18:39cost. Um but in your home league, I I would say I'm still leaning towards going a little bit later. And if there's
18:45two of those two of like a Lamar and Jalen Hurts that I would lean towards, I'm actually going to go with Jalen
18:50Hurts of the two um in terms of like who I think would end up being the bigger value. You know, Hurts Hurts off like
18:57Hurts is going to probably go like two rounds later in a lot of home leagues this year than than where like Lamar, if
19:02not more, um just because people were burned by him. But, you know, last year the Eagles hit basically low you know,
19:07lows in every offensive efficiency metric since Jalen Hurts took that job.
19:11I think that we could look at Kevin Petullo and point to that being a very, very key reason. Um, we saw a big dip
19:18from Hurts last year and this is a little bit of a concern, but I think that this also ties a little bit to
19:23Petullo. Um, he had 5.6 points per game via rushing, which is still an okay number, but he had significantly fewer designed runs in that offense last year,
19:31which kind of just goes back to the creativity of what Kevin Petullo brought to that offense. You know, their their RPO rate last year was like 10%.
19:39Previous years were 13 and 19%. You know, so you're not getting as much of that going on with them. Um, I I just
19:45think that that's a really important part of that offense and this is kind of a make or break year for Jalen Hurts in
19:50a way in the way that that people are viewing him that I I don't think that they're just going to like hold him back
19:54or or not have him play that that mobile role that um, we know that he can play.
20:00At least, you know, I think that we could see I I don't know if we'll see what he did like two or three years ago
20:04again, but I do think it'll be better than what we saw last year because last year his designed runs, I mean, it was
20:09like like 40 fewer designed runs year over year in that Petullo offense. And then the other piece to this is yes,
20:16they lost A.J. Brown. I don't think that's nothing. He's one of the still one of the better wide receivers in the
20:20game. Um, but they go out and they get Mekhi Leamon, they go out and they get Eli Stowers. And on one hand, you can certainly point to
20:28Jalen Hurts not meshing with that overall given the fact that those are more middle of the field type players.
20:34You know, Mekhi Leamon obviously can thrive in the slot. I think he can play on the outside, but even if even if they
20:39want to use him in the slot a lot more to start his career and use Dontayvion Wicks in the perimeter, I think it's fine. I I I I look at the
20:45Eagles organization. I think that they're sharp enough to know what they're drafting, you know, like like this isn't this isn't like a random like
20:53the Cardinals or something drafting a player that they probably don't know how to how to deploy and use. I mean, this
20:59is a a sharp org that yes, they did draft Jalen Reagor, but um, you know, I I I think that they know what Mekhi
21:05Leamon is and what Eli Stowers is. and you add in Sean Mannion, there's a little bit of upside there and you know,
21:11we don't know exactly what that's going to look like obviously, but I think that that it can all come together and Jalen
21:15Hurts um you know, give us a pretty good season. And then one more thing I'll say about Hurts.
21:20We developed a metric this off season called market score, which is essentially looks at ADP, looks at previous season inputs and scores a
21:28player from zero to 100. So it's basically saying like, okay, here's his expect his expectation at this ADP, but we're going to we're going to get be
21:35more predictive than what ADP would be by by throwing in some of these previous season metrics. Market score loves Jalen Hurts and actually, I don't agree with
21:43it, but it has Jalen Hurts as QB2 this year behind Josh Allen. So uh he has really good comps too. So I uh I'm I'm
21:49I'm high on Hurts this year, especially if you're getting that that discount based on him burning you last year.
21:54>> Yeah, the discount is very, very nice and to your point about the design rushing, it really impacted his, you know, just overall yards per game. Hurts
22:02has always been around 45 yards per game in his career. Last year was down at a career low to 26. So that explains that
22:09and you know, he always has obviously the touch push upside. There's going to be double digit touchdown upside within this offense. Vegas has this offense
22:16scoring one and a half more points per game year over year, so a slight bounce back candidate and JJ makes an excellent
22:22case there for for even more bounce back ability. Uh our guy Ryan Heath has been talking all off season about how yeah,
22:28Hurts hasn't really thrown much over the middle in his career, but when he has done it, it has been pretty efficient.
22:34So I do think there are some some signs for, you know, positive signs there for for you know, progression in this
22:40offense. Sticking in the same bucket, JJ, I got to ask you, one of the biggest decision points this season is to Joe
22:46Burrow or not to Joe Burrow in the sixth round. We're talking about pocket passers here that have, you know, he's really the only pocket passer that I
22:53think has been truly priced up this season. Uh he's going consistently, you know, sixth round in most drafts. He's probably going to be drafted no later
23:01than QB1 in your home league. Should he be priced up along with alongside some of these mobile quarterbacks very similar price ranges Jalen Hurts, Drake
23:10Maye, Jayden Daniels. Do you prefer any of those quarterbacks in that pocket and how are you treating Joe Burrow at kind
23:17of an elevated price this season?
23:19>> Yeah, I mean look this is the the Burrow dilemma at this point like every year and it's just a archetype and look this
23:27could be like a what you talked about earlier with like a Derrick Henry thing or a you know Tyreek Hill thing or
23:32whatever where he just bucks trends and I think he does because he's good and he's in a really good environment overall. And the one thing that I love
23:38about the Cincinnati offense this year is that there's chaos across the NFL in terms of new coordinators and new schemes and new offensive line. You have
23:46so much stability on that team you know which is why I like I like Chase Brown this year because you're just in a
23:52position where we know what to expect and it's it's good. You know there's a lot of upside in that expectation. And
23:59so I do think that that's the positive for Joe Burrow.
24:03You know I I I heard Brandon Thorn say this I didn't even realize it but this is the first year of Burrow's career
24:07where he's keeping the exact same offensive line year over year. So you have that cohesiveness that he's literally never had before. I do think
24:14we're going to see a really really strong season from Burrow. With that being said I can't do it at like QB4
24:20where he typically goes when you have Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts often going I mean especially in best ball because people are stacking but you know
24:28we'll go like a round later often times.
24:30And and to me I I'd rather just draft those other players straight up than Burrow. I do think that they're like close enough
24:39where I'm not going to be shocked if Burrow ends up you know being better as a fantasy asset this year. But I mean
24:46look there's there's a lot of data to support this too. He had a 6.6% touchdown rate last year that ties a
24:52career high. It's really tough to sustain. Over the last three years he hasn't scored more than two points per game via rushing, which is not great. I
25:00mean, that's like you're you're inching towards more like the Goff territory than you are the Bo Nix territory at that point. And since 2014, we've had 12
25:07quarterbacks drafted inside the top 10 at the position where they were coming off a season with fewer than two rushing points per game with their legs and a
25:15touchdown rate of at least 6%. So, they weren't doing that much via rushing for fantasy, and they were doing a lot with their arms cuz they had
25:23a a touchdown rate above 6%. Only four of those 12 quarterbacks outperformed ADP expectation the following season, and that group as a whole, they averaged
25:32roughly two fantasy points per game below expectations. So, you know, I'm looking at Burrow. Now, Burrow has bucked these trends in the past, so I'm
25:39not going to be shocked again if if he does it, but to me, he's one of my more like like, you know, when I say fade,
25:44I'm not saying I'm not drafting him no matter what, but I I would prefer the mobile guys cuz I think there's just a
25:49lot more stability and upside baked into what they can do versus versus what we're looking at with Joe Burrow. But, you know, of the poc- of the traditional
25:57pocket passers, yeah, like I'm still going to take Burrow over anyone else, you know, in the in the league, you know, that that doesn't bring the the
26:04mobility part.
26:06>> Yeah, Burrow is just really tricky cuz it feels like in terms of his ceiling where he needs to produce to pay off
26:11this ADP, he's got to push for like 38 35 38 touchdowns on the high end. Now, he could get there. The Bengals are
26:19probably going to lead the league in pass rate this year. Joe Burrow does lead all quarterbacks of the last three seasons in pass attempts per game, JJ.
26:26He's been like well ahead of the league like by one or two attempts per game.
26:29So, the volume should be very very good.
26:31But, to your point, it's just really hard for these non-rushing quarterbacks, these non-mobile quarterbacks to pay off the ADP cuz we we're really just banking
26:40on the spike to touchdown efficiency, which brings me back to Jayden Daniels.
26:43It feels like, you know, Daniels and Burrow both both burned people last season for different reasons. Daniels was a little bit underwhelming when he
26:51did play, but then he got hurt, played through multiple injuries. Joe Burrow played, came back at late in the season, but obviously, you know, was hurt for
26:59all of the year, was a massive negative EV player last season. But I'm in on Jayden Daniels this year. I got to I got
27:06to say I'm feeling it with Daniels. In 20 career games that he's played more than 85% of the snaps, JJ Daniels has
27:13QB2 over the last two seasons in points per game at 22.4. Only Josh Allen has averaged more points per game. You're
27:19talking about these, you know, coaching changes and all across the NFL. We've got what, like 20 new play callers all across the NFL. Daniels is
27:26one of them, no Kliff Kingsbury. How are you treating Washington this season?
27:32Should we expect a bounce back from Jayden Daniels? And again, I think he is someone that you're probably, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but it
27:38seems like you're probably taking him over Burrow as well.
27:40>> Yeah, I have him ranked ahead of Burrow.
27:42I will say though, like I think every fantasy player, you know, has a different risk profile and what they're looking for in different formats call
27:49for different things. Like there could be like if you want to be more risk-averse, like I I I think taking Burrow is fine, you know, in that in in
27:56that situation, but I go for the home run and that's just how I play fantasy and so I'm going to lean towards Jayden
28:03Daniels more, you know, he still gave you almost 0.7 rushing points per rush last year, which is uh just just for context, like a still a
28:11very, very solid number, almost six points per game via rushing and obviously, he wasn't able to finish games, that number should be higher. So
28:17I think the rushing prowess is still generally there. Um all of his numbers though, like this is where the volatility comes into play. Like all of
28:24his passing numbers were significantly worse last season. You know, he he was just a worse quarterback. His completion percentage over expected dropped by like
28:29five percentage points, success rate down by 1.5 percentage points. Like it was just a worse season and I don't want to lose sight of that aspect of things,
28:38right? Especially as I'm like talking about who I would be drafting. Um I'm pretty bullish on David Blough though.
28:44Um I think we're we're get more motion, you know, Washington uh was 23rd last year in the league in in motion,
28:50pre-snap motion, 28th the year before.
28:52Maybe that gets Terry McLaurin moving around a little bit more and not being stuck to one side of the field like we
28:56know these Cliff Kingsbury offenses do with their ones. Um the only part that I might be a little bit more bearish about
29:03is there has been some talk from Blau about kind of keeping pace slower. Um you know, like huddling up, making sure
29:11that they're on the same page and not not pushing that pace that we love, you know, in fantasy with like a Kellen
29:16Moore offense or something. So, I think we should keep an eye on that. Um but overall, yeah, like I I like Jayden
29:21Daniels. I think there's just more upside there if things really hit for him than Burrow. There's there's there's far more room for air with these mobile
29:28quarterbacks. That's really what it comes down to. Like I'm not going to be shocked at all if Joe Burrow has like a
29:3345 passing touchdown season and is the league MVP because I think Cincinnati might not be a bad team, too, you know.
29:40Um like I'm not going to be shocked whatsoever, but we're playing the range of outcomes game and we're playing the what's predictive type game and that's
29:47why I'm I'm leaning more towards Daniels than Burrow.
29:50>> Yeah, I'm with you on that. I think you're you just hit the nail on the head. It really is like an insulation
29:54type thing, right? Where it's just like Daniels could throw 25 touchdowns this year, but completely outscore Burrow just because he's going to be so
30:01involved in the run game. And I love your point, too, about the pace.
30:03Kingsbury has been one of the the fastest, you know, play callers in the NFL, just pushing the pace. They they're usually around like a 30 or 40% no
30:11huddle rate year over year. That's certainly bound to decline. So, that's definitely a a good call for sure on on Washington, just looking, you know,
30:19something to know for early in the season. I got to pivot over, though, JJ.
30:23One of the surprises of training camp so far has been Malik Nabers' health. I think pretty much everybody, myself included, thought Nabers probably
30:29wouldn't be close to fully healthy in September.
30:32I'm looking at this as like from from a two-pronged angle, like Nabers going closer probably to the two-three turn as we get into this weekends of drafts in
30:40the next couple of weeks. Should we be bumping up Jackson Dart? Is he a little underrated by ADP? He's a pretty tricky
30:46evaluation, JJ. Like, you have on the one hand he was scrambling like a freaking maniac last year and and and really bolstering his fantasy value with
30:54those scrambles.
30:56That might be something they would try to dial back just a little to keep him healthy. But also, it is like, you know,
31:01the passion the passing numbers underneath the hood were just fine. They were, you know, right across the league in terms of in terms of his accuracy, he
31:08was right around league average. Uh some of the deep, you know, deep passing metrics were, you know, either below average or kind of bad. Where are you at
31:15on Ja- Jackson Dart this season? I think he's one of the the trickier decision points and then kind of an inflection
31:20point once you get past the Daniels, Maye, Burrow tier.
31:25>> I've been kind of shocked that Dart's cost in Best Ball is more attractive than his cost in like big platform, you
31:33know, major platform ADP. Just because you would think like this is the kind of player that slappies would get excited for. You know, that that we would be
31:41drafting at like like closer to like the Daniels range or or whatever. Um but it's not happening at all from a Best
31:47Ball [clears throat] perspective. So, I've gotten a lot of exposure there.
31:50Whereas, when I look at the big platform ADP, I'm basically at market, you know, or or at least like close to market with
31:56Dart from that perspective. I will say going back to that market score metric, the cool thing that we can do with that
32:00is look at comps. So, you look at market score, overall ADP, um and and and career year, and we can find comps
32:08historically that match with that. And if you look at top 10 comps for every quarterback and you uh use that similarity score as like a weighted
32:16points per game based on how those comps performed, uh Jackson Dart comes out as the QB1 in those projections this year.
32:23Now, I I will say that's not how we're ranking it. That's not market score does not have him as the QB1. But, there are
32:30so many crazy upside comps because the main reason for that is it's looking at previous season inputs, which what you noted, not you know, having a league
32:38average passing profile as a rookie quarterback is phenomenal. Like that's a you know what I mean? And you have that and then you have the
32:46rushing juice that you brought and you combine those those factors and you look at his year two and historically year two quarterbacks have
32:55been the most beneficial quarterbacks to draft from a ceiling perspective in fantasy football. There there's a very low floor but there's a very high
33:03ceiling with these players and obviously at quarterback we're we're you know, we're shooting for the stars. Like we're trying to get ceiling outcomes here,
33:10which is why you know, last year Drake May, Caleb Williams but then JJ McCarthy, you know, or Michael Penix, you know, like it can go south. So when
33:17I look at him, you have the year two profile which I'm attracted to because there's a lot of upside there. He did
33:21really really well running the ball. I think the fear is what you noted that they just want to protect him a little bit more. I don't
33:29know how easy it is to do that with a player like Dart or a player of this archetype where you know, last
33:36year he was top five in the league in scramble rate. It wasn't even designed run oriented necessarily. It's very Josh Allen-esque, you know, in the way that
33:43that he approached things and he did that in college too, you know, like this is when it's like embedded in the player's
33:49DNA, it's very difficult, I think, to just take that out completely, you know.
33:54And so from that perspective I'm I'm excited about Dart and then you add in the fact he did this mostly basically without
34:00Malik Nabers last year and now you're getting >> play a single game with him, Jim. Dude, unfortunately Nabers got hurt what in
34:06the second quarter of that Chargers game?
34:08>> Exactly. And so you know, him doing it without Nabers just just should make you even more excited about what he could bring to the
34:14table. So yeah, I mean like I think the upside's very present. I'm in. I want to be more in than out but it's crazy to me
34:20that like like there there were just so many good quarterback options like we've been saying. We've been talking about like Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow and
34:27Lamar and Jalen Hurts. So it's like to me it's hard to put him over those guys but I think the conversation starts
34:33right after those guys are drafted.
34:35>> Yeah, I'm with you right around QB 7. I think he makes a ton of sense. And like you said, the spread on his ADP is
34:40pretty interesting. Typically, we think of like sleeper and ESPN is kind of like less sharp, little softer platforms. But yeah, QB 7, QB 8 is the ADP over there.
34:49Whereas at, you know, FFPC, NFFC, and any best ball league, yeah, he's going like QB 12 or QB 14. I think this
34:55season, if we've learned anything just listening to JJ and and talking through strategy with him on this pod, it's like it kind of does make more sense to play
35:03a little chicken at quarterback in the mid rounds this year. See if you can get one of those guys to slip way past ADP.
35:10I'm with you that I don't think Dart changes his stripes at all. I think this is just He's a maniac and he This is the
35:15way he plays, the way he played in college. He's looking to extend plays, looking to get first downs with his legs.
35:21They might They might dial him back just a little bit in the red zone to try to like, you know, get get [laughter] fewer
35:27contact near the goal line, all of that.
35:29But all that being said, I I don't think we're taking anything out of Dart in the DNA of the player that he is. And like
35:35JJ mentioned, I mean, he he basically didn't play with Malik Nabers. He got him for about a quarter and a half of
35:39that Chargers game. Then Nabers went up for the pass and ripped up his knee. So, we really have not seen an efficiency
35:45spike with Dart. Last season, he was at 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Would not surprise me if he were a little closer
35:51to average this season with Nabers on the field right around 7 yards per pass attempt. My biggest concern now at this
35:57point of this offense is just the coaching staff. I think we've not seen a whole lot of good from Matt Nagy when
36:03he's been calling plays on his own with the Bears. The little bit of stint that he had was a play caller with the Chiefs
36:08did not go so well either. That is a legitimate concern with this offense, but I think at the price, this price across the industry, even in
36:15like the 80s in in ADP, is more than fair to pay that price for Dart.
36:22JJ, this has been awesome so far. You can listen to JJ on his podcast. He does an excellent daily podcast. You can find
36:28that on Spotify and Apple. You can check out his draft guide at late round.com and follow him on Twitter @lateroundqb.
36:35JJ, straight up, who is your most undervalued quarterback? You're looking at ADP in your home leagues, ESPN, Sleeper, Yahoo. Who's the one player
36:45that you're looking at as like, "Yeah, damn, that's the most undervalued guy."
36:48>> I think it's got to be Malik Willis at this point. Just just based on the fact that like not only can you you know, cuz
36:55like a lot of people are like, "Oh, I I you know, it's too nerve-racking to to rely on Malik Willis as my QB1 in
37:01fantasy." I don't think you have to do that. Like in most leagues, you can probably draft a second quarterback and and have a more stable option like a
37:07like a Nix that we were talking about or even like a Goff if you want to go that route. And and have that while also
37:13being able to pair that with the the potential upside of of Willis. I mean, you look at what he did, um you know, in
37:19his in his three starts with Green Bay.
37:21Uh we're talking about literally like just breaking fantasy football. Um you know, he was averaging uh an absurd like 12 like 11 12 points
37:30per game with his legs, which is just something that we just don't see, 11.8.
37:33Um and that's really to me the entire thesis, right? Where you uh you don't know what he is as a passer. Chances are
37:42median outcome, he's going to be horrible uh from a from a passing production standpoint given the offense he's in, the personnel they have. Um I
37:51mean, I I I don't think that all my years of doing this I've ever seen a wide receiver room as pitiful on paper
37:57as what we're looking at in Miami right now. Um but he could also just be a prolific running quarterback where like
38:04I see this as a situation as a Justin Fields like situation where uh you know, the floor is is going to be there uh and
38:12he can be usable, but then you get those like random three touchdown games that are very possible. And all of a sudden
38:18you get a 30-point performance out of the guy, you know? And so uh overall, I I I think that like when I take a step
38:24back and I look at the fantasy football landscape this year, there's no easier click than Malik Willis in a managed season-long league. I can make the
38:31argument against him more in a in a best ball environment cuz there's a lack of stacking, there's a potential, I guess,
38:37that he could like lose his job down the stretch or something like that or they want to, you know, get other guys some
38:42reps if they're just that atrocious. Um but but overall, in a managed season-long league, when you're getting him past QB 20, I you you have to make
38:51that click. I mean, it's just it's there's there's so much upside with his rushing.
38:54>> Yeah, the rushing upside is the main argument. And yeah, you know, Justin Fields didn't work out last season. He had the big spike week to start the
39:02year, then everything after that after the Bills game in week two really just kind of fell off a cliff. I think I
39:07think you're right. Malik Willis has like very little downside, I think, at this ADP. The only downside that you could really point to is just the supporting
39:16cast cuz you're you're right. I mean, you and I've been doing this for a very long time at this point. I'm with you.
39:20This is the worst receiver group that the NFL an NFL team has ever put together. The good news is is the
39:25defense is terrible, too, JJ. The Dolphins Dolphins fans have a lot of a lot to look forward to. The defense is
39:31really bad, so it's like Malik Willis could play very well this season and Dolphins still struggle and they keep him starting just because their defense
39:38is giving up a ton of points. I don't really see a lot of bench risk with Malik Willis like I did with Justin
39:44Fields last year.
39:45You know, truly, there was like a massive range of outcomes with Justin Fields last year. It was literally he was either going to be the top eight a
39:51top eight fantasy quarterback or not starting by the middle of the year. And it was the opposite end of that range of
39:56outcomes. I don't think we see that with Malik Willis this year. I think we know what Quinn Ewers is. He was a bad
40:01prospect at Texas. He's not been able He's clearly not been able to push Willis at all for the starting job. So,
40:07I think Willis does have a lot of like insulated you know, floor kind of helping that downside. It really is just
40:13like, man, it's it's him and Devon Achane. They have to make things happen in this in this offense.
40:19I'm with you that in terms of undervalued Willis is right there as the best, you know, one of the best values on the board. I guess he would
40:27also figure into this next question about to ask JJ. I was going to ask you who your favorite superflex QB2 target
40:33is at ADP. You can take this any number of ways. Is there a pocket quarterback that you're looking at? Is it just Malik
40:40Willis? Who is your favorite QB2 to target in superflex this season?
40:45>> No, you know, I think you can go in a lot of different directions here actually.
40:48I [clears throat] I think Kyler is someone who is is interesting just given, you know, the environment with KOC in Minnesota now. You know, we've
40:56seen basically every year including last year with JJ McCarthy that that Vikings offense from a touchdown rate perspective has consistently been above where Kyler
41:07Murray has has been from a touchdown rate perspective. And so, you're going to get a little bit of a boost from that
41:11perspective.
41:13And and so, you know, the the rushing production has been there. He's He's never averaged fewer than 4.7 fantasy points per game with his legs. So, I
41:20think Kyler as a QB2 option, if you feel good about a stable QB1 like a Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert or something
41:26like that, he makes a lot of sense. I like Tyler Shuck a lot based on what he did down the stretch and again leaning
41:33into that QB2 year two thing that I was talking about where we get a lot of that volatility.
41:38I'm I'm going to lean into that with a player like Shuck where we saw he could do stuff with his legs last year. You
41:43get an offense that pushes the pace. You add Jordan Addison who I think complements Chris Olave really really well in the offense.
41:50You know, overall last year he averaged almost 16 points per game, which is really strong for a rookie quarterback.
41:54Like not especially in the context of it being such a run-heavy league right now and quarterback scoring being down a little
42:01bit.
42:02I think Shuck is really intriguing. And then if you want to go with more like traditional options, I've already talked about Bo Nix. I think that he's a really
42:10just like a safe option this year. I mean, if you look at what he's done the first 2 years, there hasn't been like
42:15massive improvements year-over-year. Uh you know, what we saw last year versus the year before that, but he's been top 10 in points per game the last 2 years,
42:22giving us almost four points per game with his legs, uh reasonable uh 5.1 and 4.1 touchdown rates, so we're not going
42:29to see massive regression there. There's just a lot of stability with his numbers, and then you Oh, by the way, you add Jameson Williams to the offense,
42:35so there's there's a little bit more upside with that. Um but the other guy I want to call out who I've been off of
42:40most years, uh at least last year I was definitely off of him, uh is Jared Goff.
42:45And the main reason I say that, their schedule's incredible. I mean, it's it's one of it's it's it's arguably the best
42:50schedule uh in football. And if you look at their implied totals, they're the only team in football, at least according to DK, that doesn't have an
42:57implied total below 24 points uh across the season. And so, that alone, schedule, um you know, you you don't have the the goal line back in David
43:07Montgomery like you had before.
43:09Obviously, Jamaal Williams is going to probably smash, but uh this is the one year where I think that like in a in a
43:14in a single quarterback environment, I'm not going to go after Jared Goff cuz there's just not enough of that rush. We
43:18we've seen his ceiling more than likely in that like QB8 range, um and I I just want a little bit more for my
43:24quarterback, but you know, if he falls, I'll still get him. But but in a in a in a in a superflex type environment, two
43:29quarterback environment, I do think he makes plenty of sense cuz he's a pretty stable piece.
43:33>> Goff is my favorite superflex target as well. I I'm finishing up the strategy guide here at Fantasy Points this week
43:40and going through uh superflex, the quarterback market this year at large, just kind of how I'm seeing player values. I'm with you. I I love this
43:47Lions offense this season. It's the easiest strength of schedule, like you noted by the Vegas win totals going into this season. There's just a lot to like.
43:54Goff has been, you know, pretty relatively efficient over the last couple of years by EPA per dropback. Uh only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have
44:02been better in that metric. Uh I think, you know, Goff has some some, you know, probably not like top five upside, but he has like
44:10QB10, QB11 type upside where he's going in drafts. I think that makes a ton of sense. I've got to ask you about Tyler Shuck, too, just to
44:17follow up on that point. I think he has some of the most underrated rushing upside, maybe the most underrated rushing upside among quarterbacks. Last
44:25season, he was QB12 in design carries per game, just fractionally behind Drake May. Drake May had 2.4 design carries per game. Tyler Shuck was right behind
44:34him at 2.3. There's some legitimate rushing upside here with Shuck. And then like you noted earlier in the show, Kellen Moore in this offense, they could
44:42be really up in pace. So, I'm with you.
44:45I think Shuck makes sense and has some underrated upside at like QB17, QB18 ADP. And it's not like a Jared Goff type
44:52situation where I think you're right. He is Goff is going to be right on that fringe of like streamer, like top 10,
44:58top 12 quarterback, especially when the Lions are at home and they're favored.
45:02However, I think Shuck could be like fringe weekly starter. I think you're kind of right on that one.
45:06>> Yeah, I think also from like a superflex game theory strategy perspective, like you if you can read the room right,
45:13because it's very hard to play quarterback chicken in superflex leagues, right? But you realistically, like if if I were to be guaranteed like
45:21a Kyler, Shuck, Willis trio that I can play by matchup each week and just just completely smash at running back and
45:29wide receiver, I think that's a that that could end up being a a winning look. The problem obviously is that if
45:35you get sniped with one of those guys and and you start to scrambling a little bit at the quarterback position, you can
45:39you can screw yourself. But if you want to play a you know, a risky game, I do think that it's a fun thing to do.
45:44>> Yeah, this this quarterback pocket, that's the same way I'm looking at it this year, too. A QB12 through QB21 pocket is deeper this season than it was
45:51in in previous seasons. But yeah, bro, you don't want to be starting Bryce Young as your QB2. Tennessee football, man, you don't want to be doing it. I I
45:59have I I made that mistake in a few superflex leagues in in my past where I've I've played chicken way too long at
46:05QB2 cuz that's usually what I do is I try to get like one hammer QB1 that I just feel excellent about every single
46:10week and then I kind of stream that QB2 spot especially in like a shallow 10 team league. Yeah, don't don't make my
46:16mistake of years past and play chicken for too long. I think this is a year where you can play chicken though and
46:21and kind of wait in that pocket. JJ, before we get it get you out of here, I have to know if it's not Malik Willis,
46:28who is your absolute favorite late round quarterback? Is it Tyler Shuck?
46:32>> Yeah, yeah, I'd probably say Tyler Shuck would be would be the dude. Um I I I do have some concerns still about like how
46:40well Kyler's going to work in this offense in Minnesota because I think in an ideal world Minnesota's going to want to really push the ball down the field
46:46and Sam Darnold was able to do that uh when he was there. He's got the arm to be able to do that. And so there's still
46:53a little like I think that he could fit better than like JJ McCarthy or be better than JJ McCarthy. Um but there is
46:58that in the back of my mind, right? That like this could be a bad fit. Whereas New Orleans has quite literally built
47:04this offense around Tyler Shuck and not only that, New Orleans offensive line could be a lot better this year, too.
47:09And that's that's another piece to this where they not only added to with with Jordan Tyson, but I think there's a and
47:15obviously Travis Etienne HN. Um but but I just say both last names at this point because >> [laughter] >> Just hyphen it. Just hyphen it.
47:23>> Exactly. Uh but the offensive line might be a lot better, too. Um and so you just bring that all together, domed
47:28environments. I still think the defense isn't going to be amazing. Um there's just a lot of high upside potential in that in that New Orleans offense. It
47:35could go south, too, because Shuck is an unknown, but again, that's that's the the risk that you should buy into in my
47:41opinion with quarterbacks in in fantasy and those year two guys is that he's being drafted where he's being drafted because of that ambiguity, so take
47:48advantage of it.
47:50>> Yeah, I my echo your same concerns about Kyler. I think the rushing upside is really sick in this offense. I think the
47:56volume could be really good for him, too. The Vikings and Kevin O'Connell, they've always been very pass-heavy, especially inside the red zone. This has
48:02been a very pass-heavy team inside the 10 over the last few years. But, the stat I keep coming back to, I've said
48:08this on a few pods this off-season, is like Kyler is bottom four in accuracy on throws 10 or more yards downfield over
48:14the last couple years. His catchable throw rate is on par with Caleb Williams and Aaron Rodgers, who's obviously on like the back nine, the 18th hole of his
48:21career, maybe even 19th hole of his career at this point. Uh that is a concern within this offense because that is that is what, you know, O'Connell
48:28wants to get to do. He wants to push the ball down the field, be aggressive. So, maybe there is some sort of like, you
48:33know, tendency change here with this offense leaning a little more run-heavy this season. Kyler is somebody that I have not been able to just have like
48:41full confidence in in a way where like late round like Malik Willis or Tyler Shuck, like I feel very, very good about
48:46not only their their, you know, job security, but the rushing upside for both players in different manners, obviously. Willis has like the highest
48:53end of range of outcomes of rushing upside, where Shuck's more like that Drake Maye season from last year.
48:58>> Yeah, totally agree.
49:00>> JJ, this has been awesome, man. Thank you so much for your time again. Follow him on Twitter at Late Round
49:05Quarterback. Listen to all of his podcast. JJ, you've you're you're a podcasting bro now. You got becoming a best ball bro, uh and your late round
49:13perspectives feed is always fantastic.
49:16And you can find all of JJ's content at lateround.com. JJ, how how many times a week do you update your your draft guide
49:23and rankings at this point during training camp? You give it You give it daily? Do you do a weekly updates? What
49:27What's your uh your your cadence like?
49:29>> Yeah, so so I'll update the the the rank I mean, I'm always like manipulating the rankings and stuff, but uh every Friday
49:34morning people will get an update through up until the season starts. And that update includes, you know, more players to target, players to avoid,
49:42late round dart throw write-ups and stuff like that. So, uh got to get on that because I got to uh got to write a
49:47couple guys up for uh for the next update.
49:50>> Well, there you go, JJ. The The draft guide looks I was thumbing through it this week preparing for the show. It
49:55looks fantastic. The design crew did a great job and JJ, obviously, your perspectives look fantastic. So, support JJ's work over there at lateround.com.
50:04For JJ, I'm Graham. We'll see you guys at the top of the leaderboards.
50:14>> [music]
