From the video
one of the biggest decision points this season is to Joe Burrow or not to Joe Burrow in the sixth round... he had a 6.6% touchdown rate last year that ties a career high. It's really tough to sustain. Over the last three years he hasn't scored more than two points per game via rushing... Only four of those 12 quarterbacks outperformed ADP expectation the following season, and that group as a whole, they averaged roughly two fantasy points per game below expectations.
STACKED’s take
Sixth-round QB4 overpriced; 6.6% TD unsustainable; prefers Hurts/Daniels at same cost
Joe Burrow is the only pocket passer truly priced up this season, going consistently in the sixth round (QB4 ADP). JJ Zachariason fades him despite acknowledging strong Cincinnati offense stability and first-time offensive line continuity. Burrow's 6.6% TD rate (career-high) is unsustainable; he averaged under 2 rushing points per game over three years, placing him in non-mobile QB archetype. Historical data: 12 QBs drafted top-10 since 2014 with sub-2 rushing PPG and 6%+ TD rate averaged 2 PPG below ADP expectation; only 4 of 12 outperformed. Zachariason prefers mobile QBs (Hurts, Daniels) at similar price ranges, though notes Burrow has bucked trends before (like Derrick Henry or Tyreek Hill) and remains the best traditional pocket passer option. He acknowledges Burrow could post a 45-TD season and win MVP, but prefers Daniels in the range-of-outcomes game because mobile QBs offer more ceiling upside.
Joe BurrowQB · CINPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight