0:00Yo, what is going on? It is Fantasy Football Daily. I'm Graham back with another great episode. I've got my guy Jake Triby here. We're going to be
0:08breaking down the quarterback positional target tendencies. [music] He just dropped an excellent article about a week ago going through each position and
0:16how their quarterbacks relate to target tendencies. We're going to be breaking down some of the most important players in fantasy this season, breaking down
0:25some of the quarterback changes and how all of this will fit into each position.
0:30Jake, you do an excellent job with this article every single season. Love, always love reading your takeaways. You can find this again at
0:36fantasypoints.com.
0:38QB possessional target tendencies, >> Jake. It's it's always it's always fun.
0:51It's always interesting to see like your takeaways from this article. Um I think one of the biggest things that stood out
0:57to me just right off the top going through your your notes was that the Malik Willis quarterback change in Miami is certainly one we have to have an eye
1:06on when it relates to Devon Achan. Achan is obviously just been an absolute PPR stud in fantasy man. like every year
1:14he's just been he's been like printfest for PPR leagues really just in fantasy in general over the last two seasons 87
1:21and 85 targets he's caught a ton of passes over 200 carries in back-to-back seasons I think we feel very very good
1:28about the rushing volume right like Miami should be extremely runheavy however we do have a concern here as you note in your article Malik Willis has
1:36one of the lowest quarterback target tendencies to his running backs all that said the Packers coming from you know Malik Willis coming from the Packers.
1:44Packers typically don't throw a ton to their running backs, Jake. So, let's break down how Malik Willis fits with Miami. Should we be concerned about
1:52Devon Chan?
1:53>> Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great question and that was one of the things I was the most interested in looking at
1:57when I started writing this article.
1:59Malik Willis just a 10.8% running back target rate over the last three seasons.
2:04That's the lowest in our sample. That said, only 94 attempts from Willis over that three seasons. So, this is a highly
2:12noisy sample of throws. And when I looked at the actual throws, 86% of them were either designed or first read targets. So, you know, Willis is a
2:21quarterback who loves to run and and rushing quarterbacks tend not to check down. They'd rather just take off. But he's also a quarterback who at least so
2:29far in a in this very small sample has not really strayed from the dictated throw of a particular play. So then,
2:36Graham, that kind of makes us ask, who do we think the Dolphins are going to scheme targets for? Jaylen Tolbert, Tutu
2:42Atwell, Malik Washington, like none of these guys really get you all that excited. Devon Achan certainly does though. So my money's on him continuing
2:51his target dominance despite Willis's historical tendencies. And you know, another note that I do think is bullish for Achan that I haven't heard a lot of
2:57people mention. You've mentioned the increased rushing volume, which you know could be good. I really think the increased rushing efficiency is
3:03something we should also be really excited about with Malik Willis under center. We saw some of the best uh seasons of Derrick Henry's career with
3:10Lamar Jackson under center. Uh just historically, we've seen like significant yards per carry uh boosts for guys who are playing in the same
3:17backfield as a rushing quarterback. So, I'm very excited about this back field.
3:21I'm uh I'm happy to take Achan across. I know our best ranks reflect that as well.
3:26>> Yeah, Achan still projects incredibly well for us at fantasy points and it's something that Chris Wet and I have talked about a lot. It's like I, you
3:33know, hens are like RB5, RB6 and projections and I'm like, man, I I'll be honest, I don't feel amazing about this,
3:38but I get why we're getting to the point because who else are you going to give the targets to? To your point, uh, Jake,
3:44like there's just no there's no one else really to feel very comfortable about giving targets to. And not for nothing, like Devon Achan, you know, obviously
3:52the plurality of his, you know, running back targets have come out of the backfield, but he is one of the few
3:56running backs that does actually split out wide. We talk about this all the time with running backs. Like, oh, Chris McAffrey splits out wide into the slot a
4:04ton. Like Alvin Chimera did it in his past. Like, insert prospect X can do it, too. And it's usually like a complete
4:10trap. But Devon Achan, like, no, he actually does split out out wide. He's got 17 targets out wide. That's the second most over the last two seasons
4:19among all running backs. Bejian Robinson is number one. Bean actually does get split out wide, too. So, there's there's a chance, too. like if Bobby Sllo is
4:26sharp and can kind of like you know move Achan around the formation a little bit too. I think maybe some of these
4:32concerns that like you're mentioning with Malik Willis you know being not necessarily the most voluminous quarterback when it comes to target his
4:40running backs uh that that might be a little bit of a a lesser concern. I'll also say too like you know Bobby Sloic
4:46was in my opinion he really struggled in in Houston really not setting up the Texans with a lot of like great early
4:53down situations. They're going to be very runheavy on first down. Sloic, you know, typically a lot of his offenses those two years they had a lot of third
5:01down situations, but he did I mean he did target his running backs. Joe Mixon had 52 targets in 14 games in 2024 and
5:08we're looking for closer to like 70 this season. I think 6570 targets for Han. He more than pays off this ADP. I've come
5:15back around on Han when he was going at the one-two turn Jake earlier this offseason. He was going around like 13
5:20or 14 overall a little closer to like Omari and Hampton and Ashton Jensen. I was I was a little backed off on that
5:25price, but now he's he's calmed down.
5:27He's going like 17 18 overall. I think on DraftKings in particular, if you're drafting best baseball over there or any full PPR site, he makes a lot of sense
5:34there in that middle of the second round, you know, with the fully, you know, offensive, you know, limitations fully baked into that price.
5:42>> Yeah, absolutely. He's a guy that I I do like a bit more in baseball than I do in re. I could certainly see, especially,
5:47you know, if Miami ends up being a a pretty bad offense this year, I could certainly see a world where we get a lot
5:53of 25 and 30 point games out of Achan and we get a lot of, you know, five to 10 point games out of Achan, which is
5:57going to be really frustrating for reddraft, but for best ball just, you know, doesn't matter a whole lot, you still want those uh those spike weeks.
6:04>> Yeah, the Achan efficiency is ridiculous. Leads all running backs all time and yards per carry. So, even if he does take like a small step back, Jake,
6:11I think you're right. Like the run game should be pretty good. like he could take a small step back and still be the
6:16most explosive ball carrier in football.
6:19Tuite of Valoa is going to be the starting quarterback for the Falcons to start the season, guys. Michael Penn just said a few minutes ago before we
6:26recorded live on air here, yeah, Penn is going to miss at least the first 3 to four weeks of training camp. He should
6:32be like ramping up in late August, which probably means, you know, September is just kind of out of the question for him
6:37coming back from yet another knee injury. I think in general uh no one's really super stoked on Tonga Valoa Jake.
6:45No one's really excited but you know there's one person who might be and it's Bejian Robinson as you noted in your
6:51article Tua is QB2 and target share to his running backs over the last few years. This offense might stink. The Falcons are 25th in implied points per
6:59game Jake but the volume for Bejon might be incredible. And it really does start with the passing down volume.
7:06>> Yeah absolutely. And you know, something that I like to look at when I do this articles, when I do this article is when
7:11looking at, you know, some quarterback battles heading into the season, are there any dramatic differences in their historical target tendencies? And when
7:19it comes to Michael Penn and and Tua, you know, you don't see they're pretty similar overall, but you do see a bit of
7:26a gap in the running back target rate.
7:28Penn was at 19.5%, which is quite high.
7:31That's still top seven in our sample.
7:33You know, average would be right around 16 17%. Batua at 24 and a half% uh one of the most RB happy uh quarterbacks in
7:42terms of uh just how he's how he's throwing the ball and you know he's pretty spoiled Graham in the sense that
7:47he's going from Devon Achan who ranked top three in first read target share among running backs to Bejan Robinson who also ranks top three so not too much
7:55of a change schematically for Tua in terms of you know I have a great running back it's going to be an easy guy to
8:00check down it's going to be a guy the offense is designing plays around and yeah I If it weren't for Jir Gibbs, I'd
8:07be more than happy to take Bejan with the first overall pick. But you're right. You know, this receiving volume is incredible. He's a great receiver. I
8:13think, you know, we just talked about Hchan. I think there's probably three or four running backs who you could say could legitimately make a living as a
8:19slot receiver in the NFL. And and Bejian would be one of them in my opinion.
8:23>> Yeah, I agree. Uh he's like I mentioned just a moment ago, I mean leads all running backs and targets split out
8:29wide. He's got 27 over the last two seasons. Achan is number two. So he is truly one of the, you know, Swiss Army
8:35knives of the NFL. Chris McCaffrey, Jaylen Warren, Jamir Gibbs, all lead all running backs in yards per route run over the last two years, Jake. But then
8:41Bejian is right behind them at RB6. I think in terms of workload, we're going to look at Bejian Robinson is like he's
8:47going to get a Christian McCaffrey style workload this year. I think when we look at the XFP ed data, Jake, like weeks
8:53three and four by, you know, once we get a couple games into the season, I think Bejon and his workload is going to be
8:57right there with Macaffrey as the most, you know, impactful and most voluminous in football. Um, the downside though is just this offense. Like I mentioned,
9:05Lions are second in implied points per game. Falcons are 25th. There's just more upside in terms of touchdown upside with this Lions offense compared to the
9:14Falcons.
9:16>> Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. And and you know, that really is the main tiebreaker with uh with Jir Gibbs going over Bejan
9:21Robinson. I mean, I don't know about you, Graham, but I'm I'm comfortably taking Gibbs first overall at this point.
9:26>> Yeah, Gibbs is my 101 as well. Um, fully agree on that. And it's just it's one of the most like it feels one of the most
9:33locked in 101's we've had in quite some time. And it's it really is like taking David Montgomery off the field giving
9:39most of the goal line carries to Gibbs.
9:41Plus this offense just is is so good. Uh we've not really fully seen Gibbs up until last year with like a 70% route uh
9:48snap share like he had at the end of last season after Dan Campbell took over play calling. Uh he re you Gibbs really
9:54took over was around on the field around 70% of the snaps. This year it should be closer to like 75%. Isaiah Pacheco, you
10:00know, two years removed from that that ankle injury. He should be closer back to full health this year, but uh it's a
10:06big downgrade in my opinion. Pacheco is just not the same talent as David Montgomery. The P Steelers have a little bit of a changed backfield this year,
10:13Jake. They're going to, you know, bring in Rico Dow to kind of be the early down ball carrier, I believe, with Mike
10:18McCarthy. But Aaron Rogers owns a very, very high target share to his running backs. This is a part of the reason that
10:24Ken Gainwell kind of had the PPR scam going on last year. Gainwell had the the breakout fantasy season cuz he was just
10:30getting a ton of dump offs every single week from Aaron Rogers. Gainwell got 85 targets last year, guys. 73 receptions, just a huge workload in the pass game.
10:40My question to you, Jake, is should we be bumping up Jaylen Warren? Does he have a little more underrated upside here? Because Warren should be shifting
10:48back from maybe a miscast early down role last season, shifting back into more of a pass down role this year.
10:55>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I mean I I think we are, you know, one of the most consistent trends that we see in QB
11:01target tendency data over, you know, really any length of time is that older quarterbacks tend to target running backs at very high rates to avoid taking
11:09hits. We saw this with late career Drew Brees, late career Tom Brady, and you know, Aaron Rogers is just another example, logged a 22.1%
11:17running back target rate uh which ranked top five uh over the last three seasons.
11:22A very interesting stat I thought was that last year Kenny Gainwell and Jaylen Warren both ranked top seven of 59 running backs and expected fantasy
11:30points per route run. Even more interesting was that a route from either player was worth more by expected fantasy points per route run and fantasy
11:37points per route run than a route from Bejan Robinson, Chase Brown or Ashton Genty. So the receiving floor for Warren like you said sort of moving back into
11:46that passcatching role is excellent. I also think it's worth a slight boost for Rico Dael who you know even if he is the
11:52early down grinder when they do drop back to pass on early downs. Rogers is still going to want to get the ball out
11:56quick and will check it down to Dao. But Warren in particular you know where he's being drafted uh it's kind of a tricky
12:03range. A bit of a running back dead zone uh pick this year. Uh, but I think, you know, particularly for reddraft,
12:09Warren's a guy where, you know, if I have to slot him in because I have a couple buys or an injury, I feel really
12:14good about his ability to get me 12 to 15 fantasy points, which is really all you need for a fill-in, you know,
12:19plugandplay running back if you're in a 10 12 team league. That's what I'm thinking, too, is like, okay, maybe he doesn't have like the scorched earth
12:26upside. He is definitely a dead zone running back and and has some, you know, contingent upside if Rico D were to ever
12:32miss time. I do think Dowel is just really good at the game and he is going to take a you know probably the
12:36plurality of the early down work here.
12:38But you're right. I mean RB27 across the industry in terms of ADP for Warren. I'm with you in reddraft leagues that he's
12:44he's going to project is a really strong flex play for us most weeks and just based on projections. Our guy Chris
12:50Wacket just crushes projections every single year. Warren is certainly one of the more undervalued players. We have him in our top 50 just overall flex
12:57rankings. And again, he's going well outside of that in most leagues. FFPC, he's going in the, you know, mid6 round sleeper right now. He's going in the
13:06middle of the seventh round underdog.
13:08Same. Uh he's come up a little bit on on underdog in basketball streets. Uh but yeah, I I've been warming to Warren
13:14quite a bit. It's it's not necessarily because I believe the Steelers offense is going to be anything special. It really is just like a volume play. Jake,
13:21that stat you just mentioned is super dank about in terms of the role and how valuable the expected fantasy points role was for this backfield last year,
13:28man. Like even if it is like a a split a little bit, uh Warren getting the majority of the the pass down work, uh
13:34it could be a very very valuable backfield here just just based on the pass down rule.
13:39>> Yeah, absolutely. And we should get a more passy offense with Mike McCarthy calling the plays here instead of Arthur Smith. So, you know, that's another
13:45boost for this backfield.
13:47>> That is a good call. and all the all the signs kind of point towards that. Them adding Michael Pitman, you know,
13:52obviously Metaf's still there getting, you know, fully healthy going into this off season. Uh they add Jeremy Bernard as well. So that's that's another good
13:58call. We could probably see the Steelers. I'm not expecting anything crazy like the Bengals or Chiefs like an eight or nine uh per row over
14:04expectations, but a couple points over expectations certainly certainly could happen. That's a that's a good call there as well. Let's flip over to the
14:11quarterbacks targeting receivers here.
14:13Kyler Murray is joining up with the Vikings. And this is something I've been questioning all offseason is like just how good of a fit is Kyler Murray for
14:21this offense. Uh you know Kevin Oonnell is is typically you know a lot of timed rhythm scheme throws over the middle.
14:29Kyler obviously has some height limitations. Uh he's he's a little bit of a short king Jake. There is some questions there I think with Kyler uh
14:37just in terms of how he fits, but he also has not really targeted his perimeter outside wide receivers like you noted in your article. I think some
14:44of this is a little bit of a Trey McBride factor. Obviously, you know, you got Trey McBride's orbit in your offense. He's just going to be
14:50commanding the football. But more importantly, I think we have to relate this to Justin Jefferson. Kyler has some of the worst accuracy down the field on
14:59throws over 10 yards over the last couple years. According to our fantasy points data, he's been the bottom of the league in that stat. So, we've got that
15:06confluenting factor. And then we have this too where like you're noting that he's just not really targeted his outside wide receivers as near as much
15:13as maybe he should have even with you know Trey the Trey McBride factor.
15:17>> Yeah. I thought one of the more interesting things that I looked at while I was writing this article was sort of comparing some of the new
15:22quarterback additions uh with their respective play callers. Like how are they different in in terms of how the play caller likes to scheme targets uh
15:30you know whether that's to outside players, running backs, tight ends, what have you versus the new quarterback. And you know, there's a pretty big gap
15:37between Kyler Murray with a 31% target rate to outside pass catchers versus Kevin Oonnell's 43 and a yeah 43 and a
15:45half outside target rate since 2023. So, you know, I think the the good news if you're Kevin Oonnell is that Kyler
15:53Murray has been dramatically better than JJ McCarthy targeting outside pass catchers by uh you know, EPA per drop back uh on most of our catchable
16:02metrics. But the bad news is that Kyler Murray still is not very good targeting these outside pass catchers. He ranks 49th of 55 quarterbacks over the last
16:12three seasons in catchable target rate to players lined up outside. So, you know, I view Kyler Murray as an upgrade over JJ McCarthy, but I I am a bit
16:21worried as to how he fits in this scheme. You know, initially I I wanted to get excited, Graham, because we know
16:26Okonnell is a great coach. We know he's a quarterback whisperer. He's pulled these these great fantasy numbers out of guys like Nick Mullen, Joshua Dobs, and
16:33Kyler Murray's obviously a better fantasy asset than either of those players would be. But, you know, if Kevin Oonnell wants him to throw it to
16:40outside wide receivers, and he's not particularly accurate in doing so, that does make me a bit worried for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison,
16:48particularly Jefferson because he's so expensive. You know, he's going right around pick 8 n 10. And I think if I had
16:54to pick a single player in the first round to fully fade this season, it would be Justin Jefferson. You know, this is a guy who, as much as I believe
17:02in the talent, only averaged about eight fantasy points per game over the last seven weeks last season. So, we've seen a truly abysmal floor out of Justin
17:10Jefferson. And, you know, if you question the scheme fit a little bit, it's it's easy to say, ah, maybe maybe Justin Jefferson should be a mid-second
17:16round pick instead of a late first round pick this season.
17:19>> Well, the floor was really bad last year. like the the floor was lava last year in a way that >> Jefferson Jefferson's floor is, you
17:27know, is is low in a way that it's just not for CD Lamb. You know, CD Lamb played through a high high ankle injury
17:32last year and he was still like one of the most valuable receivers in terms of his role. I mean, he had an 18.3
17:39expected fantasy points per game in his healthy games last year and that was better than Justin Jefferson. So, the role was better, the floor is better cuz
17:46Dak is just significantly better. And yeah, I mean I I went back and looked at this over the last three seasons.
17:51According to our fantasy points data, only Caleb Williams, Aaron Rogers, and Boone Knicks have a lower catchable throw rate on throws over 10 yards down
17:59the field. So, it's like, yeah, he is an upgrade over McCarthy, like Jake is saying, you know, but the numbers still
18:05are are not very good. It'll be interesting to see if Kevin Oonnell does kind of change his stripes a little bit.
18:11Okonnell's been very very pass throughout his career, like you not to Jake. I mean, it's been like even Nick Mullins who has like a pop gun arm,
18:18dude. Like, he had a couple 300 yard games. It really has been like he has been a quarterback whisperer. It'd be
18:24interesting to see if he goes a little more balanced, maybe tries to use Kyler's legs a little bit. I'm viewing this as like they've got to use a lot of
18:30play action and a lot of bootlegs to get Kyler outside the pocket throwing on the move in this offense for it to really
18:36work. And it it certainly could, but they're going to have to run the ball a little bit better this season. Vikings
18:41still I I'm with you. I think Jefferson has a he he's still got a pretty low floor and he is a player that I've I've
18:47really not been super excited to take in the first round. It has nothing to do with him. You know, he's a fantastic
18:52talent, Jake. Uh but, you know, between the offense of concerns, the quarterback concerns, the floor is a lot lower for him. We'll pivot over to Cam Ward. Cam
19:03Ward finally gets a little bit of a stabilizing force in his play caller and Brian Dable. Uh I god forbid, fingers
19:10crossed for Titans fans, they're not firing their coach in the middle of this season again. But you know to Jake that
19:14Cam Ward and Wandel Robinson's connection should be really good. Ward had a very very high target rate to his slot receivers. This is one of the
19:22things one of the many things I liked about your article, Jake, is that you do a good job splitting out slot receivers
19:27to and wide wide receivers because it really does make a huge difference. Kam Ward had a very very high target ratio
19:33to a slot receiver. Something I didn't really notice last year, but you did.
19:37They add Juan Dale Robinson, obviously a player that Brian Dable knows extremely well from the last couple of seasons.
19:43This should be a pretty good marriage, right? Like, and this is a part of the reason why I'm kind of a little lower on
19:47Carnell Tate. I think Tate is an alpha wide receiver in the NFL, but bro, Wandell Robin Robinson has always been a
19:54target earner, and you know, like you noted, this is a pretty good fit here.
19:58>> Yeah. And you know, obviously, and I I mentioned this in the intro of the article, these target tendencies are extremely dependent on the personnel
20:05that you have on your team. You know, if you have Travis Kelce or Trey McBride, you're going to target tight ends more.
20:11And, you know, that's the same at at every position. We already talked about that with running backs. But what was interesting with me when I looked at Cam
20:17Ward was that his slot pass catchers last year were Tyler Lockett and Shamir DK. And yet, he still was targeting the
20:23slot at a top three rate. Now he gets Wandale Robinson, uh, who just finished as the wide receiver, 17, had the
20:31seventh most games of double-digit targets, seven total last season. Um, and you know what's interesting is that Brian Dable came over, brings Wandale
20:39Robinson in, and Wandel Robinson has led all players since 2023 in first read target share from the slot. I'm kind of
20:48with you on being a little bit lower on Carnell Tate. As much as I'd like to be excited about the rookie, I mean, we
20:53sometimes have to think through like what would be maybe the most likely thing to happen in this offense that would also be pretty annoying and would
21:00upset fantasy players. And it's Wandel Robinson just dominating targets in this offense. You know, a ton of short area stuff. Uh, a ton of double-digit fantasy
21:08point games, but never any of those like breakthrough monster performances from Wandale I could I could certainly see this season. So, I really like Wandale
21:16at cost. uh whether it's baseball or reddraft I think particularly in PPR formats is where you want to target him but you know 150 Wale targets it it
21:24might be painful to hear but I I do think it's coming >> it's in the range of outcomes he's got 140 targets in back-to-back seasons 90
21:31or more receptions in back-to-back seasons and two years ago he's playing with you know Daniel Jones and Tommy Devito and Drew Lock bro it's like it's
21:37not like he's been dealing with a lot of like great quarterbacks last season obviously Jackson Dart takes over middle of the season looks pretty good but this
21:44is you know in terms of you know quarterback targets I'm with you. I think, you know, Wale has got sneaky sneaky volume upside. You mentioned in
21:51PPR leagues, I I've been talking all offseason that Wandale is just completely mispriced. When when we first started talking about him earlier this
21:58offseason in July, he was going wide receiver 50 in ADP. That's come way up.
22:02He's now wide receiver 43. I think I'm still in at that price. Yeah, he doesn't have like win your league upside, but
22:08he's absolutely, you know, pretty good wide receiver three in terms of your flex play and you know, if you're in a
22:14deeper format as well, uh, you know, like receiver league where you're starting three receivers, multiple flex spots and PPR leagues, Juell makes a ton
22:22of sense. We have him well ahead of the markets here at Fantasy Points. He's our wide receiver 40 in terms of our
22:27projections. We have him 100 targets, right on the median at 100. That would be wide receiver 31. So, the volume should be really good for this offense.
22:37Uh, just in general, I think we're going to see targets condense around Carnell Tate and Juell Robinson. Say what you want about Brian Dable, but he's always
22:44been kind of like just a throw it to your good players type type coach. He did it with Malik Neighbors just loaded
22:50Malik Dabers up with like a 40% first target share. I don't really expect, you know, Eli Aman or you know, Tamir DK to
22:57really be super involved in this pass offense. I think it's pretty clear they want Tate and Wandell getting, you know, 50 to 60% of the first reads here. And
23:04Jake, you know, Cam Ward kind of acquitted himself nicely. Like I noted, he he had the play caller change and the
23:10offensive coordinator change and all that head coach change in the middle of last year, but he came on nicely at the
23:14end of last season. Brett Whitefield, our our resident film expert and and the COO of Fantasy Points data. He noted at
23:21the end of the year that he thought, you know, Cam Ward was the most impressive rookie quarterback compared to Jackson Dart and Tyler Shook just given the, you
23:28know, kind of offense he had to deal with. So really to me, the the upside case with with Robinson and Tate centers
23:34all around Cam Warden if he can ascend to that second level. But just based on volume, I think, you know, both players
23:40should be heavily heavily targeted this season. One quarterback room that is not so great, Jake, is the Browns. Uh Deshawn Watson, Sher Sanders, are there
23:50options for this season? Watson obviously has just not been the same player throughout uh the last couple of years between the injuries, between the
23:57off the field, everything that he's, you know, done and put himself through and and unfortunately done to other people.
24:02Uh he's just kind of killed his career, honestly. Let's be honest. I mean, Deshawn is is really taken a huge step
24:08back. I thought, you know, when he first came out in the first couple years, man, he was on a track to be one of the best
24:13quarterbacks in football. It seems like he's going to be the starter, right?
24:17like um he's he's going to be the starter to start the year. This is something I've been saying since March.
24:22I think they want to see what they if he has anything left in the tank after the double Achilles tear and like I said all
24:28the off-field stuff that he's that he's done. That being said, I think we kind of want Watson for fantasy. As gross as
24:34that might seem, Jake, like he does target his receivers more than Shidur Sanders did. Shur was just like a checkown Charlie last season. Just a ton
24:42of running back targets. We should talk through how this relates to Denzel Boston, Casey Conpsion, Jerry Judy, and Harold Fannon here. Deshun Watson, like
24:51you noted in your article, targets his receivers on the outside 43% of the time. not so much. Uh, how are you viewing the Browns wide receivers
25:00right now? Because they're all very cheap, Jake. All going well past 110, 120 overall in ADP.
25:06>> Yeah. Yeah, I think this is a really interesting spot. And you know, not just at wide receivers, like we also see a
25:11pretty notable running back target gap between these two. Uh a pretty notable tight end target gap between these two.
25:16So, you know, we might see, I think, particularly for DFS, if we get a into a situation where neither guy can kind of
25:23claim the job, we we might have a situation where, you know, Deshawn's starting one week, Sanders is starting the next, and then we have to quickly
25:29adjust um you know, our projections and and how we're playing guys in DFS based on their tendencies. When it comes to
25:36outside pass catchers though, um, yeah, this was a huge gap between the teammates and I do think it most clearly benefits Jerry Judy, although you know,
25:44it probably benefits any Browns wide receiver who's running routes on the outside should Watson start. Uh, as you're anticipating, Judy's run 64% of
25:52his routes from out wide over the last three years. And, you know, Todd Monkin is a great play caller. He's led all
25:58coaches over the last five years in average net yards per attempt and yards per play. And the volume that Judy has
26:05earned over the last handful of seasons has been significantly better than where he's getting drafted. So that that also sort of lends itself to if Watson
26:14starting, Judy probably ends up being a pretty good pick at cost. He's averaged 6.6 targets per game, 11.5 expected fantasy points per game. Both those
26:22numbers right around wide receiver 30.
26:24Of course, he's being drafted as the wide receiver 72 over on DraftKings. So, you know, Judy is the kind of guy where
26:31obviously he's not going to be a league winner, but I think he could pretty easily be um a ADP beater uh relative to
26:37cost. And, you know, another guy that I I like a lot, and this isn't necessarily as related to uh the specific tendencies
26:42that I pointed out in the article is is Casey Conpsion. Um just a guy that has a a really really strong draft profile in
26:50my opinion. And um you know this is a this is a Browns wide receiver room where it would not be terribly difficult
26:55for him to emerge as the the clear number one target here. Um but yeah curious on your thoughts.
27:00>> Yeah, Conpsion's been my guy as well. I think he makes a ton of sense in this offense as like kind of Monin scheme
27:06designed target guy as the slot receiver. Um you know he was Brett Whitefield's wide receiver too in his prospect guide after Cardinal Tate. So
27:14you like you noted gets the early dr early round draft capital. We liked him quite a bit as a prospect and I think he
27:20fits pretty well in this offense. Uh, you know, we didn't really talk through Denzel Boston, but I think if you're if
27:26you're going down Jake's train of thought and I I agree with him that Watson is is good for the receivers. We
27:30want Watson in fantasy this year. As sad as that sounds right there, saying that out loud legitimately makes me sad. That
27:37being said, I think it's also a good a good thing for Denzel Boston. But we also need to talk through Harold Fannon,
27:41bro. Like Harold Fannon was one of the the league's biggest target earners last year. uh came onto the scene and immediately, you know, basically pushed
27:49David Injoku to the side in week one or two before Injoku got hurt again. Fannon is going to run an increased route share
27:56this season. This is something I've been talking about all all off season. Uh you know, Fannon is we kind of think of him
28:02as like a Swiss Army knife. He lines up in the back field. He lines up in the slot, but he also can line up in line.
28:07About 40% of his routes were lined up in line. So, we don't maybe think of him as like the most traditional inline tight
28:13end uh in football, like a Tucker Craft or George KD type. That being said, though, he's going to be asked to be in
28:19that role this season. How does this all relate to Harold Fannon here, man? I think in terms of the volume, like I
28:24said, the volume was really good, but now he's got significantly increased target competition between Conpsion and Boston this year.
28:32>> Yeah, I mean, I I still like Harold Fannon quite a bit. I do think it's it's worth noting that there was a
28:37significant gap between Deshun Watson and Shadur Sanders in tight end target rates. Deshun Watson all the way down at 21%, Shadur Sanders at 32%. Of course,
28:46Sanders got the opportunity to play with Fannon, but a lot of Fannon's best games came with Sanders under center. Um, so
28:52that's something I want to pay attention to. Again, I think this will be a very interesting situation for DFS or even
28:57deeper seasonl long leagues. Um it just in regards to how we want to play this offense depending on who's starting potentially if we do see the team rotate
29:06quarterbacks.
29:07>> Yeah. In terms of the projection here at Fantasy Points, our guy Chris Wet has Harold Fannon leading the team in
29:13targets by a very small margin. We have the target shares very flat between he, Judy, and Conpsion. Judy being the wide
29:20receiver two, Conpion being wide receiver three, and then Boston as the wide receiver four. It is very, very flat and it is up in the air. There's a
29:26lot of uncertainty between who does lead this team in targets, but I think we've got a pretty good angle here with Jake's
29:32notes on quarterback target tendencies that if it's Deshun Watson for most of the season, the receivers probably have an uptick in volume this year compared
29:40to where Harold Fannon was last year as a receiver. Jake, this has been awesome stuff, man. Uh, you can follow Jake on
29:47Twitter, Jake Triby. Follow all of his work here at Fantasy Points. Jake is going to be on the DFS live show every
29:54single week cashing points. He and Ryan Heath will be dialing up all the DFS fantasy analysis that you need and I
30:00think he's going to do a couple preseason shows as well. We'll have some preseason DFS analysis as well. So, make sure you check out the DFS feed on
30:06YouTube that's linked in the main Fantasy Points YouTube description and also check out that podcast feed as well to get all of Jake's great takes. Jake,
30:17great stuff today, man. I'm Graham.
30:19We'll see you guys at the top of the leaderboards.
