Don't Draft a Quarterback Before Watching This!

Aaron Rodgers is used as a statistical benchmark for diminished fantasy production, specifically comparing his efficiency to that of Lamar Jackson when Jackson is playing through a lower-body injury.

Anthony Richardson is recognized as a high-upside, hyper-mobile sophomore quarterback, but the source notes his durability as a concern after an injury-shortened season limited him to only four starts.

Baker Mayfield is a high-value streaming option and arbitrage play against Joe Burrow, as he offers similar fantasy production while being drafted 12 rounds later. The source suggests pairing him with a primary quarterback to chase weekly top-three finishes, noting he could emerge as a waiver-wire surprise similar to Matthew Stafford.

Bo Nix is used as a benchmark for rushing yards per game to illustrate Trevor Lawrence's rushing efficiency.

Brock Purdy is a superior value compared to Joe Burrow, having averaged more fantasy points per game over the last three years while being drafted seven rounds later.

Bryce Young is used as a comparative benchmark for efficiency and production to illustrate the significant drop-off in fantasy value for elite mobile quarterbacks who suffer lower-body injuries.

Caleb Williams is a high-ceiling QB11 candidate with top-five fantasy upside due to expected trailing game scripts and high-volume passing. While he ranks near the bottom of the league in accuracy metrics, he is a 'sneaky runner' who was the fastest quarterback by GPS tracking last year and has shown improvement in sack-taking. He is a viable streaming option for chasing weekly spike weeks.

Dak Prescott is a consistent fantasy producer who should be drafted ahead of Joe Burrow, with projections to lead the league in passing yards. However, in standard 12-team, 4-point passing TD leagues, he is considered a C or D-tier option due to a lack of rushing upside, though he remains an 'Exodia' pick in 6-point passing TD leagues and Superflex formats.

Ranked as QB5, Drake Maye is highlighted for his efficiency, finishing as a top-three quarterback in fantasy points per dropback. Despite a tougher strength of schedule, the source argues that more competitive game scripts could lead to increased dropbacks, and the addition of AJ Brown provides a significant efficiency boost. Maye is considered a high-value target who could take another step forward with the Patriots' upgraded supporting cast.

Eli Raridon has already secured first-team snaps as a designated pass-catcher for the Patriots, signaling a potentially meaningful role in the team's offensive scheme.

The source expresses skepticism regarding JJ McCarthy's NFL potential, noting that players from the Michigan era under Jim Harbaugh have largely struggled in the NFL, suggesting their success was tied to sign-stealing rather than individual talent. Additionally, McCarthy ranks near the bottom of the league in regular dropback accuracy filters within the Fantasy Points data suite.

Ranked as QB4, Jalen Hurts is identified as the top quarterback in his tier. Despite a 2023 performance that was his worst career showing, he still averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game. The decline was largely driven by a 41% drop in rushing fantasy points, attributed to unluckiness at the one-yard line and a reduction in designed runs. With reports suggesting the team intends to return to designed runs and improve middle-of-field passing, the outlook remains optimistic.

While Jayden Daniels received a boost in his offensive situation with the addition of Stefon Diggs, the source expresses concern regarding his recent behavior, specifically citing reports about his conduct at LSU and requests to be removed from certain situations. Furthermore, drafting him in the ninth round carries high opportunity cost compared to waiting for later-round quarterback options.

Joe Burrow is labeled an F-tier bust candidate due to his lack of rushing upside, injury history, and poor fantasy production relative to cheaper alternatives. The source ranks him behind Jackson Dart and Trevor Lawrence, noting that he lacks the top-three fantasy ceiling of elite rushing quarterbacks. Additionally, the source suggests drafting Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, or Brock Purdy instead, as they offer similar or better production at a significantly lower cost.

Scott Barrett ranks Josh Allen as the QB1, highlighting his unprecedented consistency with six consecutive seasons of 39+ touchdowns; no other player in NFL history has more than two such seasons. Allen has finished as a top-two fantasy quarterback in each of the last six years, providing a safe floor with high upside. While Barrett generally advises against early-round quarterback drafting in 12-team leagues, he considers taking Allen in the fifth round a great value for a guaranteed top-tier asset.

Justin Fields' sophomore season is used as a benchmark for elite fantasy production from hyper-mobile quarterbacks. Despite playing in a bottom-five offense with a poor wide receiver room, Fields averaged over 25 fantasy points per game after the first month, proving that rushing ability can sustain elite fantasy value even when real-life passing performance is poor.

Despite high per-game fantasy production since 2019—ranking behind only Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes—Kyler Murray is a major bust candidate due to concerns regarding his work ethic, commitment, and reports of avoiding running. The source labels him 'Gen Z Jay Cutler' and notes performance declines during Call of Duty release windows.

Ladd McConkey is expected to be fully healthy for the upcoming season after playing through injuries throughout the previous year, a fact the source notes was previously covered up.

Lamar Jackson is a top-tier fantasy asset when healthy, having led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2024. However, the source highlights significant downside risk: when suffering lower-body injuries, his production plummets to the level of pocket passers like Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, or JJ McCarthy, as he loses his 'hyper mobility' superpower. While his 2019 season was a rare league-winning exception, his current value is tied heavily to his rushing efficiency.

Malik Willis is considered the 'Exodia' quarterback and the easiest buy in drafts at his current QB24 ADP. Brett Whitefield highlights his elite athleticism, including a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and a 'jacked' build, alongside elite rushing production: 0.72 fantasy points per drop back—over 30% more than Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen—and 64.3 rushing yards per four quarters. The source argues that even if he struggles as a passer, his rushing floor provides massive fantasy upside similar to sophomore-year Justin Fields, making him a potential league winner.

Matthew Stafford is cited by the source as a prime example of a high-upside waiver wire quarterback who went undrafted in many leagues before becoming a valuable fantasy asset in week four, illustrating the viability of the waiver wire strategy for quarterback depth.

Nick Mullens is used to illustrate the high-ceiling potential of the Minnesota offensive system under Kevin O'Connell, having recorded passing games of 303, 411, and 396 yards in his three starts.

Quentin Johnston is expected to be fully healthy for the upcoming campaign after playing through injuries during the previous season.

Trevor Lawrence is an S-tier fantasy quarterback and a strong MVP bet, bolstered by elite rushing touchdown production that trails only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen over the last four years. Despite a tougher strength of schedule, he is a high-upside 'Exodia' target whose ADP has risen to QB8-QB11 across major platforms.