STACKED’s take
Positive signalValue
Elite RB now overpriced; moved from pick 20 to pick 11 due to recency bias.
Elite early-round RB now priced as a value trap. Drafted at pick 20 average in 2024, now at pick 11 average in 2026—pulled up almost a full round due to recency bias following two strong seasons (2024–2025) where top-12 RBs hit at 58% and 67% rates respectively. The source argues this represents a value trap: the same production now costs premium draft capital, whereas in 2024 early RBs were underpriced and represented genuine edge. Market has overvalued the position after recent success.
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