From the video
CMAC, how many touches he have last year?... 414... What's the history of guys who have touched the ball over 400 times in a season the next season? Almost. Not good... The last time CMC did it in 2019 had 400 touches. The next year he only played three games... the rushing data was really bad for for uh McCaffrey based on, you know, what he's put on tape before. It's all about the receiving, you know, getting 100 plus targets really puts it over the top... Christian McCaffrey, as great as he is, wouldn't be a pick for me.
STACKED’s take
414 touches create durability risk; avoid at ADP 7 despite talent.
McCaffrey carried the ball 414 times last season, placing him in a historically concerning workload tier. Schefter cites the pattern that running backs with 400+ touches in a season rarely perform well the following year, pointing to Larry Johnson on the Chiefs and McCaffrey's own 2019 season (400 touches) followed by only three games played in 2020. While McCaffrey is noted as 'a freak and maniacal in the way he takes care of himself, his body, how seriously he takes his craft,' the rushing data from last season was notably bad relative to his historical tape. Fantasy value depends heavily on receiving volume—100+ targets puts it over the top—but the touch volume and durability concerns create downside risk at ADP 7 overall. Schefter explicitly avoids aging running backs in early draft picks despite their talent; McCaffrey, as great as he is, would not be a pick for Schefter due to age and preference for younger players early in their careers.
Christian McCaffreyRBPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight