Fantasy Points Fantasy Football on Zay Flowers

Alpha target with 28% share; needs 8-9 TDs for top-10 WR upside.

Zay Flowers has full-blown alpha target potential in the Ravens offense with a 28% target share last season and target share climbing in each of his three NFL seasons. He was WR5 in target share, WR6 in yards per route run, and 36% of team air yards last year. On plays with actual pass attempts, he ranks third in yards per route run behind only Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The key to vaulting him into top-10 WR consideration is touchdown equity; he's run cold historically (4-5 TDs per season) but needs just 8-9 TDs to become a consistent top-8 to top-10 fantasy WR. He has 16 TDs in three seasons with 18 career red-zone targets (only 5 last year), and his red-zone target share has been inconsistent (20%, 11%, 19%) while his outside-red-zone share has climbed (23%, 28%, 30%). Sharp Football projects him to catch 95–100 balls in PPR leagues and be one of the highest-floor players in fantasy this year. His route-tree profile—horizontal and crossing routes rather than fade routes—matches the offensive schemes of Ben Johnson (who worked with Amon-Ra St. Brown) and Sean Payton (who used Brandon Cooks and Michael Thomas on horizontal routes), suggesting he can unlock red-zone target equity if the Ravens scheme him appropriately. Lamar Jackson's under-center rate has increased from 16.6% (2024) to 29% (2025) and could rise further; when Lamar operates under center with Derrick Henry, he posts elite efficiency: 75% completion rate, 9 yards per pass attempt (QB5), and 11% touchdown rate (league-high), creating a favorable passing environment. Sharp Football prefers Flowers over Garrett Wilson, Lad Maki, and T McMillan in draft rankings, citing superior target equity and offensive environment; Flowers is priced lower than these peers despite better offensive context and role fit.

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