From the video
The number one thing that I want to point out is this yards per route run column. He fell from 3.16 down to 2.13, a career low... he was averaging 8.1 targets per game, a 29.5% team target share... the efficiency was down. The yards per target, tied for a career low... everything hinges on how much you are willing to excuse away the drop in efficiency last season on the quarterback play with Jaylen Herz and make an argument for it to be improved this year with Drake May.
STACKED’s take
Career-low efficiency despite high volume; Patriots regression risk outweighs QB upgrade.
AJ Brown experienced a significant efficiency drop from 2024 to 2025: yards per route run fell from 3.16 to 2.13 (career low), and yards per target tied a career low (last seen in 2021 as a Titan). Despite 8.1 targets per game and 29.5% team target share, the efficiency decline is stark. The trade to New England raised his draft stock from third round to second round, but the outlook hinges on whether Drake May's QB play can improve efficiency versus Jaylen Hertz. Additionally, the Patriots project as the #1 offense for regression, expected to score fewer points than their 2024 pace despite adding Brown. At 29 years old, Brown is being ranked behind Drake London (not yet 25), who averaged over 2 points per game more than Brown in 2024.
A.J. BrownWR · NEPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight