From the video
the marriage of Sam Darnold playing absolutely out of his mind on these deep play action attempts uh ju just is basically what created most of JSN's big plays... Darnold was first out of 149 quarterbacks over the past 5 years in highly accurate throw rate on attempts of 20 plus yards downfield... JSN scored literally 26% of his fantasy points on the season uh on just 16 targets
STACKED’s take
JSN's 2024 breakout unlikely to repeat; Darnold's elite deep ball was key.
JSN's 2024 breakout season will be extremely difficult to replicate in 2025 due to multiple regression factors: (1) Sam Darnold's elite deep-ball accuracy (first of 149 QBs over 5 years in highly accurate throw rate on 20+ yard attempts) created most of JSN's big plays and fantasy points; (2) JSN scored 26% of his fantasy points on just 16 deep play-action targets, with the average receiver regressing from 79 to 36 fantasy points year-over-year on such plays; (3) JSN had the fourth-fewest red-zone targets of any elite WR1 (one per game), and new OC Brian Flory emphasizes rushing attacks in the red zone rather than passing; (4) JSN was five points above his volume-based expectation (XFP), suggesting significant positive variance. Drafting him fifth overall is risky given these structural headwinds. Seattle example: JSN got 'super juiced' but limited secondary options, cautionary tale for Chargers under McDaniel where depth may suffer despite offensive efficiency gains.
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