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Flock Fantasy on Patrick Mahomes

VideoI Spent $500 on This Fantasy Football DraftCaptured August 1, 2026
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Video: I Spent $500 on This Fantasy Football Draft
Obviously y'all can tell I am much higher than consensus on Mahomes... Patrick Mahomes last season was at 20.4 fantasy points per game. Is the QB4 in points per game? Even if this regresses, even if he doesn't run the ball as much... we are pricing in so much regression for Mahomes... What if he's the same? Or what if instead of him being 20% worse, he's 10% worse for fantasy? And then at that point, it's still a profitable pick here at 95.
Mentioned at 16:48 – 18:32

STACKED’s take

Negative signalValue

Mahomes at 95 is profitable even with 10-20% regression from 20.4 PPG.

Mrs. Flock So is much higher than consensus on Mahomes and drafted him at pick 95. Mahomes scored 20.4 PPG last season (QB4), and even with regression scenarios (10-20% decline), he remains a profitable pick at this ADP. Flock views the current pricing as overestimating regression risk given his historical consistency. She notes that if Mahomes is the same as last year or only 10% worse instead of 20% worse, he's still a profitable pick at 95.

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