From the episode

if he hits the ground running, there's a chance that he could actually outscore Devontae Smith this year... it probably only happens two out of the 10 times.

STACKED’s take

Positive signalProjection

Harmon: Lemon could outscore Smith in ~20% of season simulations.

Matt Harmon projects there is a scenario where Makai Lemon could outscore Devontae Smith this year if he hits the ground running; Harmon estimates this outcome at roughly 2 out of 10 simulations, acknowledging it's not zero but unlikely given his preference for Smith.

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