From the video
I'm going to take Justin Jefferson here. So where it's at today versus where it is going to be when the contest closes... no real no real value on Ladd McConkey or Justin Jefferson... I have 4.1% of my teams have Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson. So that's quite a high amount for a combo. And that combo does occur naturally in 3.5% of drafts.
STACKED’s take
No real ADP value at current draft position; used as opening example of closing-line value strategy.
Davis Mattek uses Jefferson as an opening-pick example to illustrate closing-line ADP value strategy in best ball, noting that teams with the most projected points and highest ADP value tend to have the best advance rates and high-end finishes. However, at the time of this draft, Jefferson shows no real ADP value, being drafted at or above expected ADP. Mattek pairs Jefferson with Kyler Murray in 4.1% of his teams—notably higher than the 3.5% natural occurrence rate—a combo he accepts due to bye week constraints and roster construction priorities. Jefferson is drafted as part of Mattek's core wide receiver group alongside Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Stefon Diggs, Trey Tucker, and Jerry Jeudy.
Justin JeffersonWR · MINPlayer page — value, ADP, projections, and every insight