Davis Mattek

Burden is highlighted as a breakout candidate with Cole Kmet out, indicating increased role and target opportunity in Week 8.

Robinson is positioned as a buy-low bounce-back candidate in Week 8, suggesting the source views him as undervalued and poised for a positive performance reversal.

Goff is available at 30-1 MVP odds, suggesting the source views him as undervalued for MVP consideration in Week 8 and beyond.

Michael Wilson is priced at $6,200 in Week 8 DFS but has produced nothing since Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded away, indicating a significant decline in offensive role and usage following the trade.

Kenny Gainwell did not practice on Wednesday with a hip injury, creating injury risk for Week 8; however, Davis Mattek notes Gainwell is barely playing anyway, so the injury impact may be limited given his already-reduced backfield role.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism about Keenan Allen's DFS value at $4,500 in Week 8 against the Bengals, suggesting he is only playable if Josh Warren does not play, and even then dismissing his upside with "who cares?" indicating low conviction in his fantasy ceiling.

Davis Mattek identifies Jeremiah Love as a gold star DFS play at $5,400 in Week 8 if he plays. Love is the third overall pick in a game with a 54.5-point total, yet Mattek predicts extremely low ownership (maxing out at 6.7%), making him a strong value. Mattek believes people will be interested and he could reach 10% ownership, but emphasizes the value mismatch between his draft capital, price, and game total versus expected ownership.

Davis Mattek identifies Jamar Chase as a hot take DFS play against the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, predicting he will snap out of a down year and deliver a strong performance. Chase has only 312 receiving yards on the season and has not had a 100-yard game yet despite scoring at an okay rate; Mattek projects a final stat line of 8 receptions, 144 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Mattek frames this as the ultimate diva wide receiver spot where Chase will demand volume after T. Higgins has been outproducing him, noting that Chase has been in Joe Burrow's ear saying "Buddy, this ain't working for me." Mattek also emphasizes that the Bengals should prioritize scoring via Chase against Tennessee and need to get him involved through big plays and post routes, indicating organizational pressure and strategic focus on elevating his usage and production.

Davis Mattek identifies Garrett Wilson as his gold star DFS play at $6,300 in Week 8. Wilson has reportedly been telling the Jets he demands 10 targets this week, threatening to demand a trade if not fed. Coming off two poor performances as a known diva receiver, Mattek expects Wilson to get fed this week and take care of his statline, making him a strong play despite the low game total. Mattek also lists Wilson among mid-to-high priced wide receivers he is excited about playing this week, indicating strong value and upside at his price point.

Davis Mattek warns against Chase Brown as a contrarian DFS play at $6,300 in Week 8, predicting he will underperform despite high projected ownership. Brown has scored only 12 points per game all season, and Mattek predicts he will score just 11 fantasy points in this game. Mattek cautions that players who think they are being smart by fading the Bengals passing game and stacking Chase Brown will be disappointed.

Davis Mattek highlights Adonai Mitchell as one of his favorite players in the league, noting that if Mitchell were on the Bills, he'd rank as a top-13 receiver in fantasy football. Mitchell's primary value is in drawing targets in the Jets' elite 11 personnel package; Mattek emphasizes that "everything that happens after drawing the target is none of my business," underscoring his focus on Mitchell's high-volume target role.

Ted Hurst is priced at $3,800 in Week 8 DFS after a small price increase from the prior week, where he appeared in every projected optimal lineup. However, Davis Mattek explicitly prefers Jacobe Lane over Hurst as a tight end play, indicating better value or upside at Lane's price point.

Davis Mattek is excited about Bucky Irving's role and plans to play him at DFS as a spend-down running back option. Irving got only 2 targets on 11 drop backs last week, but Mattek believes his passing game role is bound to improve with Baker Mayfield back, with potential to see 5–6 targets in games where the Buccaneers drop back 30 times. Two weeks prior, Irving had 61 snaps out of 73, demonstrating consistent high-volume backfield role; Mattek is personally okay with the carry distribution (24 carries in Week 7 despite game script favoring runs) and does not expect the percentage to scale down significantly.

Davis Mattek raises serious availability concerns about Brian Thomas Jr., questioning whether the Jaguars will healthy scratch him and suggesting they might trade him for a fourth-round pick rather than play him. Mattek describes his career trajectory as "weird," noting that most of his production came with backup quarterback play and the team quickly lost confidence in him early in his second year, with no real historical comparisons to this type of career arc.

Chris Rodriguez Jr. had his best game of the season against the Colts with the most playing time all year; scored two touchdowns with a third called back by penalty. Davis Mattek views this as a hot-hand situation rather than a permanent role shift—Rodriguez Jr. got hot in the second quarter and the team kept feeding him while he was producing (ripping off chunks), but the source doesn't expect this to signal a return to a 50/50 timeshare given Beaux Tutin's strong performance and two-touchdown game that 'shut the door' on a potential workload split.

Parker Washington earns a gold star designation at $6,500; Davis Mattek is more excited about playing Washington than Justin Jefferson at similar price points (6K-7.2K range). The source predicts positive regression and believes Washington will be an 18-20 points per game player in the second half of the season; currently underowned relative to upside and positioned as a preferred play over Jefferson despite similar pricing.

Derrick Henry at $7,200 is presented as a DFS play with positive upside potential; Davis Mattek expresses enthusiasm ('I'm feeling something with that') and frames Henry as a stack anchor in a Dallas-Arizona stack strategy, with the added benefit of being significantly less owned than typical high-priced running backs.

DJ Moore at $5,700 is a fun DFS play in a projected high-scoring shootout game; the source notes he should be back to health and will have minimal ownership. Despite acknowledging a lingering shoulder injury concern, Davis Mattek frames Moore as a play with upside due to low projected ownership.

Gordon dominated the Jets defense last week, posting running back one performance on the slate with 264 yards, demonstrating the Jets' vulnerability to elite rushing production and supporting the bullish case for other running backs in this matchup.

Without Aaron Jones active, Mason's passing-down role is limited due to the team's belief in DJ Dallas as a passing-down back. Davis Mattek projects Mason will absorb only a few passes (similar to Judkins with Raheem Sanders but better than Judkins with Dylan Samson), playing heavily on early downs. At $5,700 DFS salary, Mattek considers Mason a fine play for Week 8 despite the passing-down limitations and DJ Dallas competition.

Williams is Davis Mattek's most interesting Lions receiver play against the Vikings. While matchup-based reasons to play him have gone many ways historically, he emerges as the preferred Lions pass-catcher option given structural pass protection risks affecting Gibbs and LaPorta, and the Vikings' strength defending the slot.

LaPorta faces structural pass protection risks against the Vikings' aggressive blitz scheme. The Lions may need to keep him in to block more frequently, which could reduce his pass game involvement and route participation in this matchup.

At $7,100 DFS pricing, Jefferson has been disappointing recently but is capable of a bounce-back performance against the Lions. Davis Mattek hesitates to pile in at this price point despite his individual upside, citing ownership concerns and the risk of following a crowd expecting a breakout week. Later in the episode, Mattek expresses increasingly less interest in playing Jefferson, preferring Parker Washington and other receivers in the same $6K–$7.2K price range. However, he also lists Jefferson as a potential mid-to-high priced wide receiver play he is excited about this week, indicating some upside at his price point for DFS.

DFS play with significant confidence concerns against the Lions defense. Performance as a passer has been worse than expected; Davis Mattek anticipated top-15 NFL EPA per play under Kevin O'Connell but it has not materialized. The Vikings' defensive strength and offensive strategy (run-heavy, field-goal oriented, ball security focused) limits passing volume and upside, with the defense generating turnovers and explosives instead.

2024 SEC offensive player of the year returned with expanded role; takes passing-down work and receives first-and-10 carries, creating 1A/1B split with Judkins. Ran significantly more routes than Judkins and was featured on outside runs, establishing true role share in the offense.

Warren posted 39 fantasy points in his best game after playing every snap; coaches designated him as their featured offensive player despite earlier workload concerns. The Steelers throw the ball at high rates and use running backs heavily in the passing game, similar to the Bears and Rams in terms of offensive pie available for backs, though the lack of red zone touchdowns limits ceiling. DFS projection expected to adjust down slightly, but ownership should also decline, keeping him in play.

Tyler Warren has missed the most recent two games with a groin injury and is uncertain to play. Given the Colts' trade activity and poor team situation, he may choose to rest rather than risk further injury, affecting target distribution.

Josh Downs has requested a trade with roughly 96 hours until kickoff, creating major roster uncertainty and target share implications. If traded before game, his absence would open up targets for other Colts receivers but also worsen the overall receiving corps.

Post-injury return has established Dowdle as a legitimate timeshare partner with Jaylen Warren; both finished RB18/RB19 in PPR last week. Split has shifted from pre-injury 50/50 to now 65/35 or 67/33 favoring Dowdle, but Dowdle is clearly not going to zero and remains a viable fantasy asset in the backfield.

Backfield timeshare with Rico Dowdle has worsened Warren's role; both finished RB18/RB19 in PPR last week. Pre-injury split was closer to 50/50; now 65/35 or 67/33 in Dowdle's favor post-return. Warren still lead back for high-value touches and posted 18 carries (most of season), but overall role clearly diminished from pre-injury workload.

Target share relatively close to Jaylen Bernard when both on field; A-dot much lower than historical average as Steelers are playing him closer to line of scrimmage. Aided by weak receiver room (Brandon Smith, Brandon Johnson, MBS, Caden Wetgen as zeros). Projected as higher target-share option over Bernard, but gap not large enough to be surprised if Bernard outperforms week-to-week (Bernard ahead weeks 5-6, Metcalf ahead by 4-5 points week 7).

Excellent and steady role with very high route participation (running as many routes as basically anybody) and target volume (getting targeted more than anybody). Median target share of 25% across six games (excluding week 5 early exit with 3% share); mean of 20% including that game. At 4,700 price point, difficult to find more solidified opportunity despite Deshaun Watson and Browns team context.

Played 49% of snaps last week for the Browns backfield, establishing him as a relevant snap-share contributor in a marginally relevant backfield.

Parker Washington remains the same play he already is even if Brian Thomas Jr. is inactive, except marginally better. With Thomas's low target share over four straight weeks, the overall impact on Washington's projection is minimal.

At $3,000 salary, Josh Cameron becomes a potential dart throw if Brian Thomas Jr. is inactive or traded, as he would inherit target share. However, because Thomas has been below 10% target share for four straight weeks, Cameron's marginal bump may not be enough to elevate him beyond a 3K dart throw type play, though he would get the biggest bump among Jaguars receivers.

Brian Thomas Jr. played no snaps in the second half of the recent game, was not targeted, and might even be traded before this week's game. His potential absence or healthy scratch would significantly impact target distribution among other Jaguars receivers, though his irrelevance (below 10% target share for four straight weeks) limits the overall impact.

Cole Kmet is projected to be chalk this week with projections around 15–18 points. His 9% target share may be slightly generous, but his 58% rush share might be slightly low. Target share has been trending up (7.5% season average, 10% last game, at least 7.5% for three straight games), and snap share should increase as the season progresses, currently at 57.5% overall and 57% in close games. He had a breakout performance in Jacksonville's second international game, scoring twice with his best receiving game of the year and the greatest snap count he's played all season, though one touchdown was called back.

Jaguars coach Tuten has shelved Chris Rodriguez Jr., recording his lowest snap count and lowest touch total before the international game, showing a clear reduction in role and opportunity in the Jacksonville backfield.

Deon Burks is outperforming Josh Downs when given touches and is priced at only $3,000, making him a value play relative to his performance and opportunity. Aaron Jones SR projects that if Downs is traded or made inactive, Burks would inherit Downs's snaps rather than Ashton Dulin, because Burks is an outside receiver while Dulin is not positioned to take on that role.

Jonathan Taylor is capable of big games but his fantasy value is hurt by the Colts' trade of offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, which weakens the run-blocking scheme. Taylor faces potential trade possibility and the Colts may be limiting his workload to avoid injury given the team's poor position (8-9 point underdog with 18-point implied total) and potential roster moves.