Thinking About NFL DFS (Week 6)

Davis Mattek expresses caution regarding Alvin Kamara at $5,100 due to poor pass protection skills, which have previously led to him being sidelined in favor of C.J. Donaldson against aggressive schemes. However, he acknowledges Kamara could still succeed if he maintains his usual target volume.

Davis Mattek identifies Bijan Robinson as a great fantasy option, projecting him for significantly more points and a higher participation rate than Kenneth Walker III, even against the Bears.

Brock Bowers is established as a benchmark for elite tight end route participation, serving as the standard against which other tight ends are measured.

Davis Mattek identifies Bucky Irving as a top DFS priority, noting he secured the expected workload last week, including two goal-line carries. While his target volume has decreased with Jalen Daniels at quarterback, his role remains stable, and his outlook is bolstered by the potential absence of Sean Tucker.

Davis Mattek argues Caleb Williams is essential for the offense's success as the only quarterback on the roster capable of pushing the ball vertically with necessary speed and anticipation, though he notes there is limited data on him due to only seven quarters of play in varied conditions.

Christian Watson is highlighted as a player who successfully exploited the Bears' defense by running high-quality routes; he is suggested as a potential waiver wire or late-round find for local leagues.

Davis Mattek identifies Chuba Hubbard as his favorite DFS running back play, citing his 85% snap share and favorable salary range. Mattek considers him a superior DFS alternative to Rhamondre Stevenson this week.

Colby Parkinson's role in the Rams offense is distinct from the role originally intended for Terance Ferguson, with Tyler Higbee serving as the direct replacement for Ferguson.

Cole Kmet is primarily utilized in blocking roles, which limits his fantasy upside; while he releases into routes, his target priority is impacted by the team's heavy use of 11 personnel.

Colston Loveland is a fantasy disappointment due to heavy blocking responsibilities; his route participation rate is only approximately 72%, which lags significantly behind elite tight ends like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.

Despite concerns about his annoyingly high participation and declining route rate, Davis Mattek is interested in D'Andre Swift at a $6,700 price point on DraftKings, believing he will play and that his recent performance dip may lower his ownership.

Despite maintaining decent fantasy production, Davante Adams is described by Davis Mattek as average in terms of target efficiency for the current season.

DK Metcalf is identified as the standout fantasy option in his upcoming matchup; while Jalen McMillan will have a role, Metcalf remains the primary target.

Davis Mattek views Drake Maye as a 'backyard football' style DFS quarterback play. He suggests playing Maye in isolation without stacking Patriots receivers because the target distribution is too random and unpredictable.

Due to the absence of Adonai Mitchell, Davis Mattek projects Garrett Wilson to command a massive 37% target share this week.

Davis Mattek identifies Isaiah Likely as a high-value DFS play at $4,800, projecting him as a top-five tight end for the remainder of the season. His usage is described as incredible, with targets across all levels of the field and in the red zone, making him a primary focal point of the passing attack alongside Malik Nabers.

Davis Mattek mentions Ja'Lynn Polk as a low-cost Patriots receiver option ($3,500) who is playing an outside receiver role, though he warns against relying on any specific Patriots pass-catcher.

Davis Mattek advises against playing Jaleel McLaughlin in DFS, citing his small physical stature and the fact that he is not the type of back who typically receives a high volume of touches.

Davis Mattek highlights Jameis Winston as a primary DFS stacking option due to his aggressive, high-volume passing role. While Mattek expressed concern after the Titans game, he notes that in a comeback script, Winston's shotgun-heavy, fast-paced style makes him and his primary targets (Nabers and Likely) highly attractive.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw a positive shift in his role last week, with the team incorporating more quick screens and creative usage into his game plan.

Davis Mattek suggests Jayden Blue would perform better than Dameon Pierce, implying he is the superior running back option.

Davis Mattek views Jaylen Warren as a strong fantasy option, projecting a 70-30 split in his favor over Rico Dowdle. Mattek highlights Warren's elite pass-catching ability and notes that despite the Steelers' lack of goal-line carries, his potential for a high-ceiling performance makes him a 'golden' play at 8-12% ownership.

Davis Mattek identifies Jerry Jeudy as a strong DFS value at $3,400, noting the Browns have an incentive to showcase him for a potential trade, which could lead to increased touches.

Davis Mattek argues Josh Downs is overpriced at $5,800 on DraftKings, noting he has been disappointing for two consecutive weeks and is currently being outperformed in target earning by Laquon Treadwell. Despite a 93% route participation rate, Mattek believes his price should be closer to $5,000 to be viable.

Justin Watson is identified as a liability in coverage when playing the slot position, making him a targetable weakness for opposing offenses.

Davis Mattek notes that Kadarius Toney must clear concussion protocol to be available, and even if active, he has been losing playing time to Mason Taylor.

Kalif Raymond's route and target shares are trending downward, compounded by poor efficiency and recent interceptions when targeted.

Davis Mattek explicitly prefers Kenneth Walker III as a fantasy option over other running backs, despite acknowledging that his projected participation rate is lower than Bijan Robinson's.

Kyren Williams has developed a significant role as a pass-catcher with an increasing target share. Davis Mattek notes that the Rams currently lead the NFL in running back targets, a major shift from previous years driven by Williams' strong play and the team's offensive struggles.

Davis Mattek identifies Luther Burden III as the best fantasy bet among the team's primary receivers, projecting he will command a higher target share than Rome Odunze despite a potentially higher cost.

Davis Mattek identifies Malik Nabers as a high-upside DFS priority at $6,500, noting that his 12% projected ownership is too low given the high-scoring potential of his matchup. The offense funnels volume to him and Isaiah Likely, making him a core play when the team is forced into a passing script.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is cited as a player who has faded significantly, failing to meet expectations within his draft range.

Matthew Golden is highlighted as one of the few bright spots among wide receivers drafted in the 6th to 10th round range, which the source describes as a 'graveyard' of production.

Davis Mattek highlights Matthew Stafford as a high-volume PPR asset. Stafford is part of a DFS stack strategy where Mattek targets a combined 50 points from him and Puka Nacua.

Michael Wilson is identified as one of the few successful picks in the 6th to 10th round wide receiver range. Davis Mattek identifies Wilson as his favorite fantasy play for the week, advising managers to look past negative sentiment and price increases to maintain a positive outlook on his usage.

Pat Freiermuth's fantasy viability is heavily touchdown-dependent; while his target volume is stable at roughly five per game, he lacks high-ceiling upside without scoring.

Davis Mattek expects Puka Nacua to be the most popular DFS target in the upcoming round due to a lack of other elite wide receiver options. Mattek describes owning Nacua as an amazing experience driven by massive target volume, highlighting a 24-target game as the ideal PPR fantasy scenario.

Rico Dowdle is expected to return to a time-share role, though Davis Mattek notes that toe injuries for running backs are notoriously nagging and could limit his effectiveness or snap count to around 15 plays.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism regarding Rome Odunze, stating he has been disappointing and is currently playing poorly, which dampens his outlook despite his role as a primary receiver in the Bears' offense.

Davis Mattek is interested in Romeo Doubs for DFS, noting that he runs deeper routes and maintains a high route participation rate, making him a viable target.

Davis Mattek notes that Roschon Johnson's recent usage occurred primarily during garbage time when the team was trailing significantly, specifically highlighting that he played his full snaps when the score was 40-14.

Trey McBride is a high-scoring but frustrating fantasy asset; while he is a must-start, he often produces massive fantasy points in the second half after quiet starts. He is also considered a standard for elite tight end route participation.

Davis Mattek recommends Tyler Higbee as a logical, low-cost DFS tight end option at a price of $3400, noting that he fills the role vacated by Terance Ferguson. Mattek explicitly advises relying on Higbee as a fantasy option for the upcoming week.

Davis Mattek identifies Xavier Legette as his preferred receiver to target from the Panthers for DFS purposes this week.