Week 5 Picks, Props, Survivor

Bijan Robinson is mentioned as a player fantasy managers instinctively target for 'longest rush' props, though the source emphasizes that these outcomes are primarily driven by volume rather than just player talent.

Davis Mattek identifies Braelon Allen as the primary beneficiary of Breece Hall's absence, noting he is the only Jets running back to receive a touch while Hall has been out. While the market may be overestimating his workload if game flow allows Isaiah Davis to rotate in, Mattek notes that the Jets' low play volume (37 plays) in the previous game prevented that rotation from manifesting.

Breece Hall remains the primary running back for the Jets. Braelon Allen's usage is strictly tied to Hall leaving the field, and while the team intended for Isaiah Davis to rotate in last week, the Jets' low play volume (37 total plays) prevented that rotation from manifesting.

Davis Mattek notes that if Carson Steele is called up to the Eagles roster, he would likely be relegated to special teams duties rather than offensive usage.

Courtland Sutton is a recommended buy-low target, appearing on Leone's buy-low model with a 5.5 half-PPR point differential. Davis Mattek and his co-host are targeting Sutton for an over bet, citing Sean Payton's coach speak about increasing his touches and a 39.5-yard prop line. While acknowledging Sutton has been inefficient with a -0.51 EPA per target and has lost a step, the analytical backing and usage-to-production discrepancy make him a viable target.

Davis Mattek expects DeAndre Swift to dominate the backfield workload against the Packers, dismissing coach Press Taylor's comments about an even split as 'CYA' rhetoric. Mattek projects Swift to handle the vast majority of carries, making him a strong target for rushing yardage and longest rush props. Swift is also trending toward playing in the upcoming game.

Davis Mattek criticizes Dak Prescott's performance and the Cowboys' coaching, specifically highlighting a failed seven-step drop play design on a critical third-down situation. However, Mattek also estimates that Prescott is worth at least three to four points more on a spread than backup Cooper Rush.

Davis Mattek identifies Dameon Pierce as the primary replacement for Tank Bigsby and suggests targeting his rushing attempt overs if the line is set at 3.5 or 4.5. Mattek notes that Nick Sirianni views Pierce as a starting-caliber back and projects him for 4.5 half-PPR points despite a lack of pass-catching usage.

The coaching staff intended for Isaiah Davis to have a role in the Jets' backfield last week, but the team's low play count (37 total plays) prevented him from getting touches. He is expected to rotate in when the team sustains drives, potentially impacting the workload of Braelon Allen.

Davis Mattek likes Isaiah Likely as a fantasy option, noting he maintains a higher target share when playing alongside Malik Nabers. Mattek believes his 39.5 receiving yard line is too low, though he advises monitoring weather conditions due to potential heavy rain. Likely is currently drafted as TE6 or TE7, and while his actual production has lagged behind his usage, Mattek remains optimistic.

The source expects Ja'Marr Chase to play this week as he has been practicing, despite having suffered a bad concussion.

Jahmyr Gibbs is cited as a player fantasy managers instinctively target for 'longest rush' props due to his explosive profile, though the source notes that such props are more a function of total volume than individual talent. Mattek also successfully added a Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown prop to his betting slip.

Davis Mattek argues the Cowboys should stop playing Jake Ferguson, citing sunk cost fallacy regarding his contract and poor play design that leads to overlapping routes with teammates. Additionally, Mattek highlights Ferguson as one of the bottom players in the NFL in EPA per target at -0.27, noting that while the sample size is small (117 routes, 22 targets), the efficiency metrics are poor.

Davis Mattek highlights Jalen Hurts as a high-impact performer for the Eagles, projecting significant rushing upside with 82 yards and two touchdowns.

Davis Mattek likes Jalen Nailor's over on receiving yards (14.5) and targets, noting he ran 61% of routes last week and that both the offensive coordinator and GM have publicly stated they need to get him the ball more.

Davis Mattek argues that the Chargers' struggles are not the fault of Justin Herbert, pointing instead to failures in the offensive line and the performance of wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The loss of David Njoku and Hayden Hurst has been detrimental to the team's blocking efficiency.

Davis Mattek dismisses KaVontae Turpin's reliability, noting that he dropped a pass when targeted on a critical third-down play and stating he is not a good player.

Davis Mattek recalls a past betting experience involving an under on the Tennessee Titans against the Baltimore Ravens, noting the line moved favorably after Lamar Jackson was injured.

Davis Mattek strongly advocates for Luther Burden, asserting he is clearly the best pass catcher on his team and their top receiving option. Mattek dismisses negative sentiment as likely stemming from over-inflated summer ADP expectations rather than actual performance, contrasting him with players who produce but 'suck' on film. Mattek includes him in a betting prop pick with a 49.5 receiving yardage line.

Davis Mattek views Malik Nabers' recent frustration with coaches regarding his lack of second-half targets as a positive indicator for his future involvement and target volume.

Davis Mattek considers Marvin Harrison a viable option for betting props (2.5 receptions) and DFS, noting he offers significant leverage on a slate with limited games and injuries to other top receivers. Mattek compares him favorably to Michael Wilson, questioning why Wilson would be ranked higher in certain formats.

Davis Mattek notes that while fantasy managers are high on the Cardinals' roster, including Michael Wilson, the team's overall performance metrics suggest they are not as strong as perceived. Wilson is also used as a benchmark for wide receiver rankings in the BR format, with Mattek questioning why he would be ranked as a WR4 over Marvin Harrison.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism regarding comments made about Roschon Johnson's usage, suggesting the team's stated plans may not be truthful.

Davis Mattek criticizes the Cowboys' play design for causing Ryan Flournoy to run overlapping routes with Jake Ferguson, effectively preventing Flournoy from having a chance to make a play.

Davis Mattek notes that reports suggest Tank Bigsby is down, positioning Damien Pierce as the primary candidate to step into his role as a running back option.

The source does not expect Tee Higgins to play this week, noting the Bengals have a bye in week six.

Davis Mattek expresses concern regarding Trevor Lawrence's performance, specifically citing the risk of a 'bad pick six' as a reason to avoid the Jaguars in Survivor contests.

Davis Mattek suggests fading Will Shipley, specifically recommending unders on his rushing yards and rushing attempts, as he expects Dameon Pierce to command a larger role than the market anticipates.