Davis Mattek Source

Davis Mattek artwork

VideoFrom Davis Mattek

Arguing Inputs (Week 5)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 3 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 7, 2026

Published

Wed, October 7, 2026

42

Player insights

41

Players mentioned

Topics

D'Andre SwiftAaron JonesAlvin KamaraAndrei IosivasBraelon AllenBrock BowersBryce LanceCaleb WilliamsCarnell TateCharlie JonesChris BrooksChristian WatsonColston LovelandDavid Montgomery

Player analysis

Player insights

42

Aaron Jones

PositiveValue33:53

Aaron Jones is a strong fantasy value at $6,500, particularly on a slate where the running back position is thin; Tyson Bean highlights that his role and projection justify the price point.

Alvin Kamara

PositiveUsage36:44

Alvin Kamara remains a clear lead back and a viable fantasy option due to his high-value touches, red zone work, and significant volume. While Davis Mattek notes that he personally might not give Kamara the bulk of the work, the Saints organization clearly favors a heavy workload for him, making him the clear guy from an opportunity standpoint.

Andrei Iosivas

NegativeDepth Chart10:18

Andrei Iosivas was previously challenging for the WR3 role before breaking his finger, which impacted the Bengals' receiver depth chart.

Braelon Allen

PositiveUsage17:19

Davis Mattek projects Braelon Allen for a significant workload, potentially reaching 80-88% of team carries despite algorithmic models suggesting a more conservative 62% split. Mattek views Allen as a superior fantasy play to David Montgomery and a preferred low-cost DFS flex option, reversing a trend of avoiding running backs in the flex.

Brock Bowers

PositiveUsage15:48

Brock Bowers is expected to dominate the target share in the Raiders' offense, with Tyson Bean noting he will be targeted a ton; his presence does not negatively impact Michael Mayer, who maintains a 75-77% route participation rate as a full-time tight end while Bowers functions as a full-time receiver.

Bryce Lance

PositiveBreakout39:47

Bryce Lance is a strong breakout candidate at his $3,000 price point, given his 80% route share and deep-threat ability. Davis Mattek notes that despite low recent production, his usage suggests a high-ceiling game is imminent.

Caleb Williams

PositiveProjection7:00

Despite struggles with executing the offense, Caleb Williams is a preferred play due to his high upside out of structure, which benefits his pass catchers.

Carnell Tate

PositiveUsage39:20

Carnell Tate is a high-ceiling play with no competition for volume, evidenced by a 42% target share last week. He is a more exciting fantasy option than Devin Vele at the same price point, especially if Chris Olave is sidelined, provided Cam Ward performs adequately.

Charlie Jones

NegativeInjury12:00

Charlie Jones is expected to return to the lineup, which Tyson Bean believes will be troublesome for the target share of other secondary Bengals receivers like Dante Myers.

Chris Brooks

NegativeInjury4:05

Chris Brooks is not expected to play in the upcoming game, rendering him unplayable for DFS purposes and leading to depth chart adjustments for the Packers.

Christian Watson

PositiveUsage4:39

Christian Watson is a strong DFS play who runs many routes; while his target share was 10% last week, he maintains a 20% target share for the season and offers big-play upside.

Colston Loveland

PositiveUsage0:04

Colston Loveland led the Bears in targets last week with a 26% target share, indicating a concerted effort to involve him more with Tyson Bagent at quarterback.

D'Andre Swift

PositiveProjection0:24

If Kyle Manungai is ruled out, DeAndre Swift is projected for a massive workload of approximately 27 carries against the Packers, making him a potential top-tier running back play.

PositiveUsage7:24

D'Andre Swift remains the starter and is expected to maintain a 70/30 backfield split; he is heavily involved in the passing game with an 8-12% target share. Tyson Bean notes a personal bias toward the 'Swift' archetype of running back over other styles, using him as a benchmark for evaluating backfield roles.

David Montgomery

NegativeUsage50:45

David Montgomery's fantasy value is trending down rapidly, with Davis Mattek labeling him one of the two worst running backs in the league. His early-season production was buoyed by a three-touchdown game, but his snap share is being challenged by Woody Marks, leading to concerns that his contract may be an immediate regret for the team.

Demario Douglas

PositiveValue32:33

Demario Douglas is highlighted as a salary relief option at $3,500, with potential for increased snap and target share if the Patriots' receiver group remains thin.

Denzel Boston

PositiveBreakout47:24

Denzel Boston is a playable fantasy option at $5,200. He demonstrates high efficiency with a strong average depth of target (A-dot) and yards per route run, suggesting he is significantly more efficient than the league average receiver.

Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeInjury9:47

Tyson Bean suggests there is a chance Ja'Marr Chase misses the upcoming game, though he is more likely to play than Tee Higgins, citing a 66% return rate for players under the new concussion protocol.

Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveValue37:15

Jahmyr Gibbs is a must-play DFS asset at his $9,800 price point; Davis Mattek notes he is the highest-projected skill position player on the slate by approximately 11 points and recommends including him in every lineup. Gibbs also serves as a reference point for Bayesian prior modeling regarding Detroit Lions running back touch distribution.

Jalen Nailor

NegativeInjury15:36

Jalen Nailor suffered a concussion, and his status for upcoming games remains uncertain.

Jamaal Williams

NegativeDepth Chart30:13

The Patriots brought in Jamal Williams for a visit this week, signaling potential depth chart adjustments at the running back position.

Jauan Jennings

NegativeUsage34:33

Jauan Jennings is a tournament-style DFS option at $4,100; Tyson Bean notes he ran 95% of routes but only commanded a 2% target share, making him a niche play for large-field contests.

Jaylen Warren

PositiveUsage42:38

Jaylen Warren is the second-best running back play on the slate behind Jahmyr Gibbs if Rico Dowdle is out. Warren has dominated the Steelers' backfield, accounting for 87% of designed carries over the last two weeks and seeing his route participation climb to 82% last week.

Jordan Addison

NegativeProjection33:26

Jordan Addison projects well for fantasy, but Davis Mattek expresses skepticism about relying on him despite the favorable projection, stating he will not fall for the trap again.

Jordan Love

NegativeValue6:26

Davis Mattek plans to skip Jordan Love in DFS lineups, preferring to rely on the individual upside of the pass catchers.

Josh Downs

PositiveValue40:27

Davis Mattek identifies Josh Downs as a high-value play at $6,000 on DraftKings, citing his consistent 85% raw participation rate and historical efficiency. Despite a poor performance last week with low target volume and air yard share, Mattek argues that fading him due to recency bias is a mistake, projecting him for a high target share in a favorable matchup against the Steelers, especially if Keenan Allen remains out with a groin injury.

Kalif Raymond

NegativeUsage0:00

Davis Mattek notes that Khalif Raymond saw only two targets last week, which ranked fifth on the team, suggesting his fantasy outlook remains volatile.

Keenan Allen

PositiveInjury40:36

Keenan Allen is dealing with a groin injury, which Davis Mattek suggests may hinder his ability to bounce back quickly given his age (34), potentially opening up more target opportunities for Josh Downs.

Lideatrick Griffin

PositiveValue6:06

Lideatrick Griffin is a high-value DFS target at $4,900 on DraftKings, as he is currently seeing very low ownership (around 2%).

Luke Musgrave

PositiveUsage4:45

Luke Musgrave is a viable DFS play who saw two direct end-zone targets last week; he is expected to improve as he gets further removed from his injury.

Malik Nabers

PositiveBreakout44:49

Malik Nabers is a high-upside wide receiver play at $6,300. Despite suffering a shoulder injury during his last game, he remained productive and finished with 6 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown, proving his ability to perform through minor injury.

Matthew Golden

PositiveUsage4:49

Matthew Golden is the most stable DFS play among the Packers' pass catchers, having not dipped below a 20% target share in any game this season.

Michael Mayer

NegativeRole15:48

Despite Brock Bowers' return, Michael Mayer maintains a consistent 75-77% route participation rate; Davis Mattek suggests Mayer is effectively a full-time tight end while Bowers functions as a full-time receiver.

Mike Gesicki

PositiveUsage13:01

Mike Gesicki is a strong play, averaging 10.7 points per game as a Bengal when Tee Higgins is absent; he also appears to have an increased red zone role this season.

Pierre Strong Jr.

NegativeDepth Chart4:12

Pierre Strong is expected to be called up to serve as the team's third running back.

Reggie Gilliam

NegativeInjury34:14

Reggie Gilliam is dealing with an injury sustained last week that may keep him out of the upcoming game, which could impact the Patriots' offensive personnel usage.

Rhamondre Stevenson

NegativeInjury17:56

Rhamondre Stevenson is dealing with an uncertain injury status after appearing to roll his ankle and potentially injuring his knee on the final play of his last game; he was observed limping off the field.

Rico Dowdle

NegativeInjury42:31

Rico Dowdle is unlikely to play due to a toe dislocation suffered two weeks ago; he is currently limited to the rehab group in practice, which significantly boosts the fantasy outlook for Jaylen Warren.

Roschon Johnson

NegativeUsage7:24

Roschon Johnson is expected to handle roughly 30% of the backfield work, though he has very limited involvement in the passing game with only two targets on the season.

T.J. Hockenson

PositiveUsage33:39

T.J. Hockenson is an interesting fantasy option following an insane volume game; Tyson Bean notes he commanded a 35% target share and expects his projection to remain very strong if Justin Jefferson is sidelined.

Tee Higgins

NegativeInjury9:37

Tyson Bean estimates Tee Higgins will likely miss the upcoming week due to an adductor injury, noting that such injuries are historically difficult to return from quickly. His absence is a key indicator for Mike Gesicki's fantasy production, who averages 10.7 points per game when Higgins is out.

Woody Marks

PositiveValue50:36

Woody Marks is a cheap DFS value play at $4,800 against the Tennessee Titans. He is projected to command at least 35% of the carries and maintains more passing game involvement than David Montgomery.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

614

0:00seen for the Khalif Raymond people last week two targets which was fifth on the team in targets. Coloulston Lovelin actually led the team in targets which I

0:08thought was fairly interesting for the Chicago Bears with Tyson Bean a quarterback. Sounds like Begent is going to be the quarterback again this week.

0:15Probably the most interesting thing with the Bears though is that Kyle Manungai's thumb was facing the wrong way when he left the game last week. I I imagine

0:24based on what I can see that he's going to want to play this week. If he doesn't play though, DeAndre Swift has to be

0:32projected against the Packers for like 27 rushes. I I mean, they're not going to use Roshan. They didn't use Roshan in

0:40that game against the Jets until Manungai got injured and that was like basically garbage time. I I mean, would Swift be like basically the best running

0:49back play of the slate if Manungai doesn't go here?

0:51>> Yeah, I would think so. I mean like it it gets when you get like these split back fields it can get uncomfortable

0:57when one of them gets ruled out but you know like cuz you don't really know how high you want to go with the other guy

1:03but like generally you do see the guy that is normally in the split just end up being RB1 you know you look at Aaron

1:09Jones you look at uh >> Warren without without doubt Brooks like that's generally the route they go and then in this case I think

1:18you can feel a little more confident in it too because like Swift is somebody that has just been that guy before. Uh

1:24so my expectation would be that he is just dominating touches and then you know Roshan is basically just when he needs a breather. Like I don't think it

1:31would be like oh we're going to make Roshan have like a real role here.

1:34>> I agree. And then I mean frankly on the in the receiving stuff I I mean I think we are probably a smidgen high on

1:42Raymond at this point. I think he's probably more like a 10% guy. The Burden target volume the the touchdowns have not come for Burden. I mean, he had the

1:51one designed play touchdown, but the burden target volume, I mean, as someone who is a big burden guy, I have nothing

1:59to complain about uh really at all in terms of the target share, I believe he's been over 20% in every game. The

2:05the one for the Bears that you could really complain about would be Loveland, but it seemed like they made a concerted

2:12effort this last week to kind of reverse that with Beant in there at quarterback.

2:17Lovelin with a team high nine targets last week. 26% target share this week.

2:22>> Um yeah, I don't know. My view of the Bears is that just like in general, I think they're going to be really

2:26annoying week to week and that's kind of been my >> view even coming into the season. They just have so many different ways they

2:32can go. Um but yeah, like I think Burden is the guy that you can feel the most confident in having some sort of a

2:38stable week toe role. Like it's still going to be volatile. Like he had like a 17% target share last week. um which

2:43obviously isn't exactly what you would want, but like he's the one that I feel like is going to have the fewest just

2:50doesn't show up, get targeted type weeks. And then I think you're going to see like the random Adun week, the random Raymond week, uh Lovelin, you

2:57know, obviously a high upside, but I think from like a median standpoint, still kind of in that bucket.

3:02>> Last week was almost a random Adun game.

3:05Had they been forced to throw a little bit more, we could have seen a random Adun game. He he >> second most targets on the team last

3:11week. Yeah, >> drop down the week before too. Or was that was that last week or the week before?

3:16>> That was that was the week before. I mean, frankly, the issue with Roman Dunes is he's just not very good. I like

3:21you guys see like we have the lowest catch rate on him here on Roman Sims.

3:24That's that's part of a function of average depth of target, but it's also part of the function of he's the worst

3:30of of the trio of Bird and Rome and Loveland. I am lowest on his ability moving forward. And you know, this game,

3:38the Chicago Green Bay game, is one of the more interesting games because the Packers cannot run the ball. They just like absolutely cannot run the ball. The

3:47Bears can run the ball very well. But were this game to get into like if the if the Packers were leading in this

3:53game, but still not able to run the ball, we could like we could like legit get a shootout here. It's one of It's

3:59kind of one of the angles I like this week is like Burden Golden correlations which on the Packers side uh you know I

4:05I wish that one of these guys would be playable in DFS. They're not. Don't think Chris Brooks is going to play. So

4:12Pier Strong is going to get called up to be the third running back. Lloyd is 4,800. Caleb Johnson's 4600. I mean

4:18frankly they're both unplayable. Uh Laflur said last week uh after the game he said if these guys keep putting the ball on the ground they're not going to

4:26play. But I don't know how to interpret that. When Caleb Johnson and Marshon Lloyd both fumbled, Lloyd's went out of bounds, but Lloyd also had a fumble

4:33against the Jets. Like they have the worst backfield in the NFL, which is a long way to say Golden and Watson both

4:40look like really strong plays. And then Craft actually finally had a good game last week. They targeted him twice directly in the end zone. I I've been a

4:49little bit lower on Craft. How are you thinking about the these three guys, Watson, Craft, and Matthew Golden? Yeah, I mean I I obviously like them in the

4:57sense that they're going to be on the field a lot. Um like with the the the wide receiver group here I feel like is like the kind

5:04of the opposite of the running back group where like the running backs it's just kind of impossible to find anything you like. Whereas with the wide

5:10receivers you can kind of just do whatever because Golden Watson and Craft are just going to run so many routes. Um

5:15you know we only saw Watson with like a 10% target share last week but overall for the season he's at about 20%.

5:20Golden's been the most stable of the group um in terms of of target share. He hasn't been below 20% in any game yet

5:27this season. So like I lean toward Golden as kind of like the I don't want to say safe because he's a wide

5:35receiver, but um as as the guy that probably has the most like stable inputs. Um but like Watson obviously big playability um and craft somebody too

5:43like you do kind of expect him to get going a little bit more as as the season goes on given that you know he was

5:48coming back from injury. That's just generally how it works.

5:50>> Yeah, I mean this is this is one of the games that I think if it if we are trending towards Sunday and just the

5:57guys from this game are not getting owned. You know, Watson 5%, Golden 8%, Craft really low. Burden is $4,900 on DraftKings not getting drafted at all.

6:06It's 60K to first in the BRs this week.

6:08So, I will be maxing because it's in four 4% rake is also uh nice there for this week. And Burden Yeah, Burden's not

6:16being drafted at all. He's like the wide receiver 19 or 20 or whatever, which means he's being drafted like 2% of the

6:22time. So, I'm pretty into that. I I think I will skip Jordan Love though. I I think that at this point Golden and

6:29Watson and Craft can get there independent. I I just I don't know. It's like I I think I would maybe just really

6:34I'd rather play Beant. I think I mean Begent can run a little bit. I I actually did play one Beent team in the

6:40spy last week. Um and I I I would would do that again. I think >> I played him I think in the 153 one of

6:47the 153 maxes.

6:48>> Yeah, I I actually I actually think they're like his ability to exe I mean we're we're gonna keep seeing this

6:54right. His ability to execute the offense, Keenum's ability to execute the offense. This is a very tired talking point. Everyone gets it. Like the reason

7:00you go with Caleb Williams despite his inability to execute the offense is he just provides you so much more upside out of structure or whatever. But Burden

7:08and Lovelin and Adun are going to be much more projectable with him. one of the biggest input spots of the week for

7:15>> Hang on. I I have one more for you on the Bears game. Um Yes. Yeah. If Manai, Assuming Man plays.

7:20>> Yeah.

7:20>> What are you thinking about the actual split between him and Swift? That's the one that I kind of look at. I'm like, I

7:24I don't know.

7:25>> I mean, Swift is the starter. So, he got pulled last week for fumbling, but I would assume they're coming into this

7:31game, assuming Manungai does play. I'm assuming they're coming into this game with a 7030 split favoring Swift.

7:38Manungai before last week had 10 rushes exactly in every game. Swift also gets used in the passing game like way more.

7:45I think Manungai is two targets on the season. Um you know I think Swift target share between like 8 and 12% in a given

7:52week. I I I would actually think if Manungai plays and Swift ends up being like 2 3% in the spot. I mean the

7:59Packers defense is bad like bad bad. So, um I I think using Swift in the spot with Manungai active cuz >> you know it was just like they were also

8:07up by two scores. They were just trying to get out of there last week like they were they were happy to give the ball to

8:13Manungai. They had a >> uh to to end the game last week. They got the ball back I believe 13 minutes

8:20left in the fourth quarter and then just finished the game on that possession.

8:24They did they just wiped out the whole drive. It was insane >> which is and and I'm with you as far as

8:29the Swiftman guy split. I I wanted to ask basically because as everybody knows I'm biased toward the Swift types over the Manungai types. So I didn't know if

8:36it was kind of a blind see you're you're wrong because Manungai actually is a favorite of of the the right-wingers like we like he

8:44>> despite being a young running back we do not claim him. We >> and I have a lot of him in baseball so I

8:50guess that does all make sense.

8:51>> There you go. [laughter] That that does.

8:52Uh yeah, and I mean to your point too with the running, like that's a whole other thing with the Bears inputs in

8:57general, like we talked about, you know, how you're going to get weak to weak on any of the pass catchers, you're also

9:01going to get weak to week as far as like does Ben Johnson even need to throw the ball because as exciting and good as the

9:06offense can be, I feel like there's like this tendency to just like think about the passing game, but like if Ben

9:12Johnson could just run the ball all game, he would.

9:14>> Yeah.

9:15>> Or will and does.

9:17>> That's I mean that's the big misnomer about the 49ers. the Rams, all these teams, that's the thing that people always get wrong about these genius

9:25coaches, the the great play callers.

9:27They would all prefer to run the ball literally a hundred times in the game.

9:30>> Yeah.

9:31>> At the end of the day, they like they are they love to design run plays. They It's the whole West Coast McShanny thing

9:37is built around running the ball. So, the Bengals are in my estimation probably going to be without Teiggins this week. I think the adductor injury

9:46is harder to come back from. And there's a chance they are also without Jamar Chase this week. I think Chase is more

9:53likely to play. I believe it's 66% of the time just at large since they went to the new concussion protocol players

10:01return in one week from a concussion. So good good side of the coin flip for Jamar Chase to play. The thing that

10:08makes the Dante Myers, Mike Gasiki stuff confusing is that Kobby Young did not play last week with a knee injury. Kobby

10:18Young had been in training camp apparently like challenging Yoshi Vos for the wide receiver three job. Yoshi Vos broke his finger so he didn't play.

10:27Dante Myers was awesome last week. Where it becomes confusing is if only one of them misses. So if only one or T of T or

10:35Chase misses, obviously the other one becomes a jam. But Dante Myers is 3500 and Cassiki is 4,100. That is a tough

10:44spot to reason out in terms of well one of those guys against the Dolphins. This awful defense is clearly a jam. The

10:51Bengals are, I believe, third in the NFL in Proe right now. They they asked Joe Burrow last week about the pass run

10:58split. They were like, "Oh, Chase Brown only got 10 rushes." and Burrow's like, "Yeah, I think we need to throw it even

11:02more." So, uh, I I what if Meyers, Young, or Gaziki is probably going to be a huge jam this week and figuring out

11:10which one is going to be a key element of this slate?

11:13>> Yeah. I mean, for one, from like a tournament standpoint, lean toward whichever one the field isn't choosing.

11:19If you know, one of them is >> My guess is Meyers gets pumped because Meyers has a cool story. He was driving

11:25Door Dash in the offseason. He was a CFL Allstar. We're all pretty sick of Mike Gassiki. Kasiki is also the most

11:30expensive of of those group, but like we've just done the Cassiki thing so many times.

11:35>> Yeah. Um, also I guess rest in peace all of my Eric all teams because that just doesn't seem like it's going to happen.

11:40Um, but yeah, I mean I I I like to me Kobe Young is interesting if there's a path to routes because like

11:48he did seem like he was going to step into that Yoshivots role and then just immediately got hurt.

11:54>> Yeah. Immediately. Yeah. Right. Right away. I I think he probably I think he probably will based on I mean it's

12:01Wednesday so it's early. I I would guess he probably will play and I would guess that is going to be like really

12:07annoying. I I would guess that is going to be troublesome for Dante Meyers. Um probably not troublesome for Gassiki.

12:14Frankly the Gasiki T in out chase in out it it could not be clear. The moment one of those guys gets hurt is ahead of

12:24everyone else. He he immediately plays.

12:25He got to uh 69% rap participation last week in games.

12:30>> I only see him at 59.

12:33>> Maybe my stuff is wrong. I could be it could be my my stuff could be wrong.

12:37Keep in mind >> fantasy points has them at 58 and 59 la the last two weeks.

12:42>> Okay. Uh well, fantasy points. So I use I use uh my my sheets all have PFF.

12:47>> Yeah, it's I I used PFF last year and it was I don't remember what the difference was. Something about screen. I if I if I

12:54remember correctly, I believe Fantasy Point uses route participation and they remove screens.

13:01>> Yeah, that's what >> screens screens for other players they remove. I believe >> um I'm I'm pretty into Gaziki. He

13:09averages 10.7 points per game in >> games he's been a Bengal where T has not played. Um which very good for a tight

13:17end. He he also seems to have more of a red zone role this year. Anyway, I'm probably out on real chalk Dante Myers.

13:26Like 17% on Dante Myers. I think I'm probably out on that.

13:30>> I mean, we see Yeah, that's it's one of those like Yeah, it's it's a fine play, but we see it every like every, you

13:36know, every season, every week of every season, you start getting >> Dantavian Dantavian Wixs last week.

13:41>> Yeah.

13:42wide receiver is still like a skill position where you know running back you get the back of running back in and

13:48they're going to do 90% of what the starter does because you're just running through holes. But like w like cheap wide receivers is just like yeah they

13:55can run more routes but like they're probably not good enough to actually get the ball. Obviously, that changes a little bit when you're talking about

14:01like a Joe Burrow offense and how good the quarterback is and all that, but you whenever they become super chalky, it's

14:06just like chances are they're not going to do that well because they're the wide receiver four, wide receiver five.

14:12>> Yeah. Uh, okay. On the Bengals side of the game, Olli Gordon basically just played way better than Jaylen Wright.

14:22Now, the Dolphins only ran 39 plays on offense, so that is kind of hard to have any huge takeaways from, but he was so

14:29much better than Jaylen Wright that Jaylen Wright basically just didn't play in the second half of that game. Ends up with 98 scrimmage yards and a touchdown

14:36in that game against the Minnesota Vikings. Not that I don't really think Olly Gordon is playable here. It's It's just maybe sort of interesting to note

14:44there could be spots where Olli Gordon would be playable in the future. And this actually uh coincides with a take that I've had that I I was too scared to

14:54say before it actually happened, which is if you're going to be a bad team with a bad quarterback that's not going to

15:00throw very much. It kind of makes more sense to have a 240lb running back who's just like, "Yeah, man. Try and tackle

15:05me." versus having 185 pound running back where like the whole offense has to be like, "All right, well, we have to

15:11get this guy in space in very specific ways to allow him to be really good with the ball in his hands." Like Ollie

15:16Gordon is a better stylistic fit for playing with Malik Willis than than Deon Han is.

15:21>> Yeah. And he's a better stylistic fit for just playing on a horrible team trying to lose games.

15:25>> Exactly. Yeah. I I I would not play I would not play Olly Gordon here, but I am I'm I'm thinking about it. I I just

15:32am overall thinking about uh Olly Gordon's role with this team because he is going to be mega lowowned. So the Las

15:40Vegas Raiders, nothing super interesting with them. I mean Jaylen Naylor got concussed. We'll see if he plays. The the interesting thing is that Michael

15:48Mayer's price has not moved, but what has happened with Brock Bowers returning is that Michael Mayer, who was stone chalk the first two weeks of the season,

15:56very funny. His role is indistinguishable from Bowowers on the field to off the field because the Raiders probably have the worst wide

16:04receivers in the NFL. Mayor and Bowowers were together on the field for 88% of the Raiders plays last week. I I think

16:14Michael Mayer is probably just a full-time tight end and Bowers is probably just a full-time receiver. And that is just quite interesting given how

16:23much the two tight end stuff has become so obviously the move on DraftKings, the way they price wide receivers. Like a

16:29Michael Mayer with his routes and his target share was a wide receiver on DraftKings, he would be priced at 5,100 the way their algorithm works.

16:38>> Yeah. And I'm with you, like the the route participation for um Marriage hasn't changed. He's at 75 to 77% every

16:45single game of the season, two without Bowowers, two with him. Um and it's not like, you know, Bowowers is coming off

16:50the field as he works his way back from injury. Like the dude's been on the field for like every drop back. He's

16:54just playing legitimately playing wide receiver. So um >> yeah, I mean you're going to get fluctuation obviously in the target share where Bowowers is clearly going to

17:04dominate and then you still have to contend with Trey Tucker and you know, JT, whatever. But, uh, yeah, he's going to be on the field a ton and he's 3500.

17:10Like, I don't think he's impacted at all by Bowowers in the sense of being on the field. Obviously, he's impacted as far

17:16as Brock Bowers is going to get targeted a ton.

17:19>> So, one of the big things I've actually changed using our Sims, which is I used to just uncheck tight end, the flex. I

17:25actually used to uncheck uh for for like the spine stuff, I would uncheck wide receiver in the flex, too. Be like,

17:30"Just give me whatever bum, you know, give me Brillin Allen." And I'm I'm reversing trend on that right now. So that's really all that's interesting

17:38with the Raiders. The Patriots are slightly more interesting because of this thing that is maybe going a little bit like I've not seen this really hit

17:46like big fantasy football Twitter yet, but Raandre Stevenson rolled over on his ankle in the last play of the game for

17:56the Numla Patriots. Uh Jeff Mueller said uh limped off the field after the play below. clearly in plane appeared to be

18:02checking his knee more than his ankle.

18:03Miked up showed him jogging off celebrating postgame. Could be something, could be nothing. Um, Raandre's had knee and ankle stuff before that has caused him. That was the

18:13the injury that caused him to miss two games last year. Trevian Henderson is $5,000. They brought in Jamal Williams for a visit um this week as well.

18:24Raandre at $5,000. If or or Trevon if Arandre does not play, I will not be falling for any of the oh Trevian's so

18:33bad, his success rate's so bad, his rushing yards over expectation is so bad. I will not be falling for any of

18:38that [ __ ] I will be stone cold lock button. Every lineup I put in on DraftKings, on FanDuel, wherever I I

18:45will be going 100% of him. I mean, we saw how good he is in fantasy last year when out. I I'll be I'll be lock button

18:53there.

18:54>> Yeah. like he just becomes very very very obvious really good chalk. I think I mean it's even if you want to get into

19:02his efficiency as far as you know his um yards per carry being inflated by like five carries throughout his entire career or whatever. Like he's 5k he's

19:11going to get the carries. He's going to get passing game work and he is explosive. Like he might suck on 19 of

19:17his 20 carries but still just pay off his price tag on carry number 20. I was going to say that's literally the point

19:22with a guy like Henderson is he's totally unplayable like even in like reddraft like getting like 12 touches a game because the sample's not large

19:29enough for him to break one. But when he's getting 22 touches per game, yeah, you absolutely want to be jamming him.

19:36Suppose another thing that's interesting here is their wide receiver group is already quite thin to the point that Effton Chisum ran I think like 45% of

19:45the routes last week. And now M. Collins is injured. Uh he also did not finish the game limped off. Uh we'll see if

19:53he's not able to play. But Douglas 3500, Chisum 3200, Kyle Williams 3100, Drake May finally had a good game last week.

20:02Uh we we waited a long time, but and it was a very good game against the Bills.

20:06I I would frankly I could probably talk myself into some Eftton Chisum the third if if Matt Collins does not play. And

20:13and I think you'd probably have to put Douglas Chisum both at like 16 and a half% target shares. Uh you know, Rarden

20:22maybe gets a small bump. I mean, Raren would not be playable, but >> yeah. Um I'm trying to pull up the

20:29Patriots route uh align.

20:32>> It was kind of a it was kind of a mess last week. their their seasonl long stuff is kind of a mess because Raren

20:39did not play in week two and they don't really have a third tight end that they like. Like these these guys are uh all

20:46jabronies. And then also, I mean, another very undercover thing, this is like maybe getting too deep in the weeds, but their fullback got hurt last

20:54week. Reggie Gilliam got hurt last week and he might not be able to play this week. So, if you're down your wide

21:00receiver two and down your fullback, that actually is a good and and potentially down your your starting running back andre Stevenson, that's all

21:09pretty good signal for Aftton Chisum or Deario Douglas getting like 72% of the offensive snaps.

21:17>> Yeah. So, my my thinking here was um Mollins runs like 75% of his routes outside. Pop Douglas doesn't go outside.

21:25Um yeah, >> Dobs obviously is just going to be out there constantly. Um Kyle Williams has run 93% of his routes outside. Chisum's

21:33at 74 or 64% for the season. Um like I think Pop Doug I think it's hard for Pop Douglas to get that much more

21:41route participation. Like obviously he can get more targets, but it's just hard for his route participation to get that much higher because he's only running

21:47from the slot. Um, maybe you see I mean like Chisum was ahead of Kyle Williams last week, but like maybe you see a Kyle

21:53Williams random week or Chisum.

21:58>> Uh, I would I would bet it would be Chisum. They they seem to just really not want to play Kyle Williams. I I

22:05would be I would think I would think Chisum. Also, I mean, you know, this is a a variable thing. Varelable is

22:09supposed to be a players coach rewarding your guy for winning the game last week.

22:13Like they >> just an elevated player that nobody will hear from again.

22:16>> Yeah. Chisum. Chisum made the he made the play of the game. I mean, they they lose probably if he doesn't because that

22:23was on third and 11, I think, was when Chisum caught that. So, they they they probably don't win the game uh if he if

22:30he doesn't convert that. So, I don't know. I I will be I'll be paying close attention to that because you do

22:35probably want some salary relief this week because Gibbs at 9,800 is like I think you you probably also play him on

22:42every team.

22:44He he is the highest projected player this highest projected skill position player this league by like 11 points. Um so you're you're really going to want

22:52him. Man, I wish I I wish I had some clarity on if this game could be any good at all. The Cleveland Browns and

23:00the New York Jets. Super low total.

23:03Deshawn Watson has been getting better results than his play. Gino played so bad last week. So so bad. Uh, the Jets

23:12are interesting though because Kenyan Sadi actually saw his route participation go up last week. Now, that's probably lying with statistics because the Jets ran 32 offensive plays,

23:23which is the fourth viewest in NFL history. His price fell down to 3,800.

23:28No clarity on if AD Mitchell is going to play this week. But if Mitchell doesn't play this week, I'm probably down to run

23:35back Sadi. And I don't think his target share probably needs to go to like no Mitchell probably to like 18 19%.

23:43>> Yeah, that's where I'm at too. I played him a decent amount last week. That obviously was horrible, but um yeah, 67%

23:49route share. Like we've seen his route participation go up. Uh it went up from week two to three and then it went up

23:54again week four. Um so obviously like AD Mitchell does matter here, but you also have you know a a rookie that you know

24:00generally those guys see more as the season goes on. He was banged up in training camp, all of that. So, like

24:05logically it makes sense for his role to to increase a bit and even if Eddie Mitchell's back, you know, obviously that's a negative, but it's not like the

24:11Jets are jam-packed with pass catchers even if Mitchell is is there. Um, and then, you know, yeah, he is also earning

24:17targets. Uh, 22% week three, 27 last week. Obviously, denominator they're very small like you said, but um, yeah, I'm with you. I think it's you're you're

24:25going to get volatility, but that's a good thing when you're talking about cheap tight ends.

24:32I do think AD Mitchell's pretty important to the Jets actually. Like I I I would imagine their target distributions at the at the end of the

24:41at the end of the year are going to be like over 50% of the passes on the team are going to be Garrett Wilson, AD

24:47Mitchell.

24:48>> Yeah, I agree with that.

24:49>> Yeah. So, it's it's it's not uh that's not great for for Ken Yansique. I mean, it would depend on how low his ownership

24:56gets. I guess the thing is is I think this game is probably going to be awful.

25:00I I mean in terms of overall plays run in this game, I mean one of the interesting things would be like can we

25:07ever get Judkins to like a four targets per game? If we can get Judkins to consistently get to four, five targets

25:15like that that is just his base projection. He becomes a lot more playable on DraftKings. I mean the the bottom line with Judkins is you just

25:24want to play him in games that the Browns can win. And I guess the Browns can win this game. Um, you know, that's

25:30that's kind of interesting. And then Brilan Allen in our algorithmic stuff projects like a god because no other Jets running back has a touch on the

25:39air. Just it's just Bree and Brilen. I don't think Bree is going to play here.

25:43And, you know, they're home favorites against a bad team. Brilen, people played him last week and he absolutely killed them. I I wonder if he becomes

25:51kind of an exploitable angle this week.

25:54>> I mean, I think the opportunity should be there. He was one that I had a lot of trouble projecting last week. You know,

25:59kind of going back to what we're talking about with the Mongai Swift thing. Like I don't want to give Brilen Allen like

26:04every carry, but the Jets seem like they want to give Brilen Allen every carry.

26:08Um I think Brick just mentioned that Brilen Allen in the most recent update is at like 62%. Uh but >> that's too I mean that that right there

26:18is like that's the responsible way to do it, but that's not what's going to happen, right? What's going to happen is

26:23he's going to have 88% of the rushes, >> right? Like there's I I talked about it uh with with Neil the other day when we

26:30were talking about like Chimera. Like it I I if I were running the Saints, I don't think I would give Chimera the

26:37bulk of the work, but it seems like the Saints want to give Chimera the bulk of the work. Like all and in this case, I

26:43think the Jets want to give Allen all of the work. and like that doesn't feel good to rely on, but I that that's what

26:52we've seen.

26:54>> Yes. Yeah. I I agree with that. I I think he I I would I would guess that he probably will be um underproed and

27:05underplayed at at the at the end of the day.

27:08>> Yeah.

27:09uh at the very least his like his his median might be low because he's on the Jets and there is some chance

27:19that they do some like split back field that we haven't seen yet this year but like at the very least his se the the

27:24gap between like his median if he is under projected and his ceiling has to be very high.

27:29>> Yeah. Yeah. His seal I mean if the if the the Jets have had really only one bad game. I mean, if you really think

27:37about it, they've really only been like LOL Jets once. And the Bears are a good team and and the Bears defense is a lot

27:44better than we thought. That I guess I guess that is I guess that is one thing is I after week one when they gave up 39

27:51or or whatever to the Panthers, we were like, "Oh, the Bears are terrible." And turns out the Bears probably are not

27:56terrible on defense. I mean, it turns out they're a very good team, but their their defense is probably a lot better

28:01than we thought. We thought coming into the year um that it was going to be quite bad. Uh all right.

28:07>> Did Did you see what Brick just said?

28:09>> Yes. The uh so according to Brick, he's at 62% rush share in the new model. The new projection is based on a basian

28:16prior of how often guys in the Allen spot get 80 carries. It's pretty rare, but yeah, he probably does. I mean,

28:22frankly, right? Oh, the basian prior Jaylen Warren every running back touch, right? uh uh you know uh Gibbs every running back touch for for the Detroit

28:33Lions. Uh >> Brick's just sending us the the meme of like the person on the left being like 80% carries for Brillin Allen and then

28:40the smart person being like Basy and Prior and then the people all the way on the right being like 80% carries for

28:44Bray Allen. All right, one other thing from this game is I wonder if our underlying efficiency stuff on Denzel Boston is no good because it seems like

28:56he probably is much more efficient than a league average receiver. His A dot has been higher. His yards per route run has

29:03been much higher. His catch rate has actually been for someone with his A dot has been quite good. Whereas Conpsion has been less efficient than average

29:12despite despite earning better volume.

29:14he's been he's been less efficient and I think I think Boston um good matchup for him. You know, the Jets uh poor poor

29:22Sauce Gardner, the 69th graded PFF corner on the year. Not a not a great trade for uh >> for the Oh, wait, no, not Sauce Gardner.

29:32They traded him to the Colts. They have They have some other They have some other corner who's supposed to be good

29:36who's also bad. Um >> Sauce Gardner was the one getting burned.

29:39>> S Gardner was traded. Yes.

29:41>> Yeah.

29:42>> Yeah. Um, I don't know. I think I think Boston is I think Boston is probably playable and will not get played at all

29:49at 5200. Like we'll straight up not get like sub 1% probably.

29:53>> Yeah, I think he's definitely playable.

29:55Just he seems good. Uh, he's making big plays. You know, obviously the ceiling's there. I will say in general, and I mean

30:01>> this isn't necessarily like a Sunday main slate take, but like I do want to be early on Conception if his price is

30:07going to keep falling and like the guy's route. the guy's just running routes on every drop back at this point. 95% week

30:14three, 97 week four. Um, we haven't seen, you know, like a huge game from him yet, but I think the underlying

30:20stuff in terms of opportunities look very good. 25% target share each of the last two weeks. Um, I I do like the idea

30:27of being early there.

30:28>> Yeah. Yeah. I I actually I actually like that one. All right. The Houston backfield. So Woody Marks is 4,800 against the awful Tennessee Titans. And

30:40the the deal is is the Titans are terrible. And the other deal is seeming like David Montgomery also might be terrible. Seeming like they might

30:48immediately regret that contract that they signed David Montgomery to. His work has been scaled back. Frankly, uh, his three touchdown game in week one is

30:56doing a lot of work because Woody actually only played one fewer snap than him in that game. And Markx's role, I

31:04mean, Marks has been the much more efficient player for the first couple weeks of the season. I It would be really hard for me probably to play

31:10Woody Marks in a Sunday main slate, but also the running back slate is really, really bad on this Sunday main slate.

31:17Like, like some of the worst I've seen.

31:19I mean, like Brilon Allen is a better play than him, but the the Montgomery stuff is trending down uh expeditiously.

31:26It's been it's been really bad.

31:28>> Yeah. Uh that that went from a very quick like week one, you know, it was everybody, ah, I can't believe I wasn't

31:34drafting more Montgomery in baseball to now it's just like, oh, this this guy and Bill are the two worst running backs

31:38in the league. Um yeah, I mean 4,800 super cheap for Woody Marks, too. You can't have any confidence really. But >> no,

31:45>> at worst he's probably getting, you know, 35ish% of the carries.

31:50>> Yeah. Yeah. Probably. And and and plays in the the passing game more than uh than David Montgomery. So, one of the

31:58more interesting things that happened last week was the Titans did seem to realize they spent a very high draft pick on Carnell Day, the fourth overall

32:07pick. They finally started targeting him in like like down the field. It was I believe it was only the second time that

32:15he was targeted 20 yards or more down the field. He had a 42% target share last week. I this isn't like a horrible

32:22matchup. This isn't a great matchup. I mean, it profiled as a really bad matchup. The Texans defense has not been that good. Um Tate was not owned last

32:30week. Probably will not get owned this week. And I mean, if Cam Ward can just not be giga mega ass, the the weekly ceiling for

32:40Carninal Tate is super high because there's no one who can take volume away from him. Like they're not even they're not even doing the Juan Dale scam

32:47anymore. Like they're they they even gave that up. They're like, "Yeah, you know, whatever. It doesn't matter."

32:52>> Yeah. So, I think all of basically all the volatility here is just around the Titans offense, how Cam Ward plays, etc.

32:58Um because even you know prior to last week where we finally saw the tape game, he had a 25% target share in week two.

33:03He had a 25% target share in week three.

33:0570 uh his lowest route participation of the season was week two at 75%. Last week was actually his second lowest at

33:1278. Um I don't remember what the score in that game was though. Uh but point being like he's getting the opportunities. We saw it last week. We

33:18had seen it the two weeks prior as well.

33:21Um it's just a matter of can this offense function enough for him to actually do anything with opportunities.

33:26>> Yeah. Yeah, I I think that uh I think that is probably the case, man. Uh a bummer of a team to talk about. This

33:35game could be fun, the Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints game. But the the Minnesota Vikings are 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They have two

33:44wins with no touchdown. Although that stat is kind of fake because TJ Hawinson could have scored last week had he wanted to. I'm assuming no Justin

33:53Jefferson here. Jordan Addison is gonna project really well. I I'm not gonna fall for it. I didn't fall for it last

33:59week. I'm not falling for it this week.

34:01The one who's more interesting is TJ Hawinson. Insane volume game last week.

34:08And actually Aaron Jones as well in a slate where running back is pretty thin.

34:12Aaron Jones at 6,500. He had an insane projection on Aaron Jones last week and I I really wanted to fight against it,

34:20but uh feels like that is probably just his role. I I don't know. I mean, give please tell me that I can just not pay

34:29attention to TJ Hawinson because that was so tilting last week.

34:33>> Yeah. I mean, if Jefferson's out, I think obviously Hawinson's projection is still going to look very good. 35% target share is insane. Um,

34:40but clearly you expect it to be higher than it normally would be. Um, I I'll still I'm sure end up going back

34:48to Addison at least a little bit. Um, I would also point out though because I mean he didn't do anything, but Jawan

34:54Jennings ran 95% of routes. He had like a 2% target share, but he has 4100 if you're playing like Millie Maker type

35:02stuff. Um, he's on the field a ton if Jefferson's out.

35:05>> Yeah. I mean, would I rather play Jawan Jennings or would I rather play Effton Chisum III? Uh, if Matt Collins is out,

35:13I think I'd rather play Effton Chisum.

35:15>> I had Jan Jennings in his like three or four touchdown game or whatever. So, I will always think he's better than he is

35:20and feel so much better clicking Jennings than Chisel.

35:23>> Yeah, I mean, bro really did get the Kyle Shanahan bag and then and then said, "All right, I'm done. I'm out."

35:31What about how how are we doing this?

35:34because the New Orleans Saints play volume has been completely preposterous.

35:39They are running so many more plays than everyone else. Like their their proe is insane. They're also down um in all

35:47these games. The New Orleans Saints have run 291 plays league average.

35:54They've played a game more than the Los Angeles Chargers who've run 245 plays.

35:59They basically have a whole extra they they have like a whole extra game worth of plays a top of the the number 15

36:07overall team in the NFL. Like it's just an absurd thing.

36:11>> Yeah, it's the Bears have run the most and then the Saints and then >> the Bears the Bears did, but the Bears

36:16is fake because they're running the most plays with run plays. I I care more when you run the most plays with passing

36:22plays. That's so much more relevant for fantasy.

36:25>> Yeah, I agree with that. Um but yeah, it's just absurd. Like if you look at the the breakdown even of teams at the top.

36:31Like the team that's run the fifth most play the fourth most plays in the NFL, the Panthers have run 268, which again

36:38is from that Bears game in part, but um they're fourth with 268. The Saints are at 291.

36:44>> Yeah, it's it's preposterous. And like I mean I I again was not ready to be talking about Alvin Chimera in the big

36:5126, but he had a great fantasy game last week. He got all the highv value touches. He got all the red zone stuff.

36:58believe he was targeted seven times last week. Um just like I I and the Vikings defense is very good. But I I I cannot

37:08believe this, man. I I think Chimera is like pretty interesting this week, particularly if he is not really going to get played, which I I think most

37:15people probably agree with me like I can't be I can't be playing Alvin Kamar.

37:18He's so bad. But >> yeah, maybe maybe he's not.

37:21>> It's the same conversation I had on Monday. Like I don't think I would be using Alvin Chimera the way the Saints

37:28are, but you're trying to figure out what the Saints are going to do, not what you and me would do. And they seem

37:33to be fine with just treating Alvin Chimera like it's 2020 or something. Um like he he got hurt, was questionable to

37:39return in a game where they were down by like six touchdowns and then he's just right back out on the field. Um

37:44>> yeah, >> like I I don't I don't know, but he's he's getting opportunities. You know, obviously the efficiency is what you

37:50expect to be the problem. um he's probably not going to fall into the end zone twice and and be a great play. Like

37:56I'm not super interested in him assuming that there are going to be other options here. Whether that's Trayvon Henderson at 5K or you know there Aaron Jones,

38:04there's always guys in this like 5 to 6K range. But um from an opportunity standpoint, I think he pretty clearly is

38:10the guy. Um we saw him come back and take carries away from Achan immediately. Uh we saw him getting like all of the the carries, you know, last

38:19week. Miller fumbled too, which obviously >> Miller Miller fumbled. Yeah. And and did not look good on any of his other

38:26touches either.

38:26>> Yeah. Um so I mean, yeah, from a projecting volume standpoint, which like you know, efficiency is what's going to pull down the medium

38:36projection, but volume is what drives the it feels ridiculous to even say, but the ceiling for Chimera. Um he's going to be on the field a lot. uh if he just

38:45I don't even know if he's capable of breaking one and housing it, but uh if he does, you know, obviously he's cheap

38:50and he's going to have plenty of opportunities, too.

38:52>> What about uh what about Vele? I mean, right now like our base stuff has him 13% target share. Obviously, he's going

38:59to be a lot higher than that. I just every week people ask me questions about Devon. They want me to play Devon Beele.

39:06Ble always seems to find a way to suck out a touchdown or whatever. Like, he just always seems to find a way. Maybe

39:13I'm the one who's wrong. He's at the 5200, but I think people will want to play him. People just love this guy.

39:19They they love him.

39:20>> Yeah. I mean, he's whatever. He's I think less exciting like than Carnell Tate at the same price >> for sure

39:28>> in terms of in terms of upside like because Tate's not competing with Chris.

39:32I mean, Chris Lave also might be out.

39:34>> Yeah.

39:35>> Which would obviously change everything.

39:37Uh but >> uh uh Kell Moore said he was fine, but if he is not fine, uh you know what's funny? Bryce Lance for for a guy to have

39:47an 80% route share and and never be targeted and be 3000. He he he's kind of like MVSing it out there. Like he's

39:55truly running absolute win sprints. He will score a 60-yard touchdown at some point this year.

40:01>> It's going to be this week. I like I had a couple of his over like long shot overs uh last week. I had him a ton in

40:07DFS and he goes out there he had I think five targets. I think he had at least one taken away by a penalty too.

40:12>> He he had a he had like a 60 airy yard target on like the first drive of the game.

40:16>> Yeah. Yeah. And he ended up with one for seven and I lost all my bats. I got killed in DFS. Like there is no doubt in

40:21my mind this is going to be the Bryce Lance like coming out week.

40:24>> Yeah. Absolutely. Absolutely. Classic.

40:27Uh okay. After this, we are going to the Indianapolis Colts. This is, if you're a true believer, you could really get paid

40:36on Josh Downs this week at $6,000 on DraftKings cuz Keenan has this groin injury that I I mean, I would s like if

40:44you're 34 years old and you have a groin injury, I don't know if you're bouncing back in one week.

40:51The downs target volume was not there at all last week. Like, man, was it not there. and his A dot also went way down.

40:58He had a 1% airy yard share last week. I mean, that is that is some hilarious stuff. I continue to be a Josh DS

41:06believer. It's a good matchup for him against the Steelers. I I want to play Josh Downs. I I want with no Keenan out,

41:12I want to get him to like a 24% target share, but that's that's probably pure uh wish casting.

41:19>> I think I mean I I think it's gonna be hard to not project him. Well, like he historically gets targeted. He

41:26historically is, you know, pretty efficient and good, whatever. Um 85% raw participation, give or take, like every week this season. You know, you didn't

41:33really see a bump last week. He was still at like 86%. Um I don't I think last year he like never got above 90%.

41:39So like that's you can't go that crazy with him, but you can feel good about him being on the field almost every drop

41:45back. Um I mean I think it would be a mistake and just recency bias to think that like he's not going to get targets.

41:51You know, you go to week three, he was at 30%, week two, he was at 29%. Daniel Jones was awful in that game. He was

41:57under pressure a lot.

41:58>> So bad.

41:58>> I mean, I think you kind of just have to chalk it up to like, yeah, stuff happens. It didn't work out for Josh DS,

42:04but um I still think he's going to project well here, like high target share, be on the field a lot.

42:11>> No one's playing him like literally no like he like like truly like maybe maybe 4% or something. um for and with a guy

42:20with his theoretical volume uh does seem like an absolute jam to me. That's really all that's interesting with the Colts. More interesting on the Steelers

42:31side, I don't think Rico Dowel is going to play. He's still So, he dislocated his toe two weeks ago. He's still not

42:38fully practicing. He's with the rehab group today in practice. I mean, Jaylen Warren, what would he have to be priced for me not to play Jaylen Warren?

42:49There there was a quote from McCarthy this week like it's it's not realistic to give him all this work every single

42:55week. The younger guys are going to have to contribute. Very funny to think of Travis Homer being a younger guy. Guy's

43:00like 33 at this point. Um I don't know, maybe a couple design plays for Hiden Reich or something.

43:06I I Jaylen Warren to me if Rico is out is probably the second best running back play of the slate after Gibbs honestly

43:13like he's just such a freaking jam in this role. He's been he's been unbelievable.

43:18>> Yeah. I mean in the week three and and week four you have 34 carries for Jaylen Warren, you have three for Homer and you

43:25have one for Lou Nichols. Uh you can throw in, you know, three for Aaron Rogers and a Frier Mouth one. Um, I

43:30mean, just 87% of the design carries for the Steelers have been Jaylen Warren.

43:36And then last week also up to an 82% uh route participation. He was at 68 the week before that. Uh, yeah. Like, and to

43:43me that coach speak is just like, yeah, I'm sure Mike McCarthy would love to take some of the work away from Jaylen

43:48Warren, but he doesn't have anybody to do that with until Rico D comes back.

43:52So, um, yeah. Yeah, I mean I I don't think especially like also you have, you know, Aaron Rogers, I assume, making

43:58actual decisions. Uh so I don't think he's going to get away with just saying like, "Oh yeah, we're just going to go

44:02ahead and throw, you know, Lou Nichols in there for 30% of the snaps this week."

44:07>> I mean, Rogers is not down for that.

44:09Rogers is like, "Get these get these rookies off. I don't want to I don't want to play with Eli Heiden. I don't

44:14want to play with Riley Noacowski. I don't want to play with Lou Nichols.

44:17Like, give me the guy like give me the guys that I'm comfortable with." Um, I'm I'm not going to talk about Roman

44:24Wilson. If you if you want to talk about Roman Wilson, you need to go watch a different program. I won't I won't

44:29justify I won't justify uh his touchdown from LA. He ran 42% of the routes. Like it it's you know, just is what it is

44:35happens sometimes. One of the biggest stories for me for fantasy last week was that Jamus looked pretty passable. Like I I thought like the the Jamus stuff was

44:46over. Like we would never see him be a good fantasy football quarterback again.

44:49Neighbors banged his shoulder up. Didn't matter. Came back in the game. Uh ended up with like six for 112 and one.

44:58Neighbors at 6,300. If Jamus runs back last week's efficiency and Neighbors is good to go is again maybe maybe the play

45:07of of this slate. And and Jamus himself is only 4,800. You don't even really need to save the salary at quarterback

45:13this week. But modeling the Jamus efficiency has to be pretty difficult because we've seen such insane wide range of outcomes. He's looked like the

45:22wor like I mean just in the last year he's he's had the 336 and2 game against Detroit and then he's had full games

45:28where he's had like 98 passing yards. I I just don't even know what you do with that.

45:32>> Yeah. And like with him it's tough because it's one thing to just say like if if this were you know like bucks

45:37Jamus and you're just like yeah whatever. He's going to go chuck the ball down the field 40 times. the efficiency is not going to be there, but

45:42uh he's either going to throw five picks or five touchdowns. But like the questions that we've, you know, from what we've seen this year, it's just

45:47like can he throw? And then after last week, it's like, okay, maybe he actually can still play quarterback. Um but yeah,

45:53I mean, I played him a little bit last week. I played Neighbors a bit last week. Uh I think at the very least the

45:57upside is there for a $6300 Malik Neighbors. I think that all of the Jameus Winston risk is priced into that because it's not like we're seeing it it

46:07would be riskier I think and scarier if like we were seeing you know sometimes you'll see the backup quarterback come in and like he can't even manage to like

46:15target his wide receiver one but you have 27 and 24% target shares for former league neighbors. Um obviously that number can go up. Uh Isaiah likely

46:23getting a billion.

46:24>> I was going to say likely likely who I did not draft at all in baseball and think sucks frankly is probably one of

46:31the better plays this week again. I mean he he out targeted neighbors last week.

46:35>> Shout out Coastal Carolina.

46:37>> Shout out to Coastal Carolina. Um you know I liked Likely before it was cool.

46:41Now that it's cool to be in unlikely. Uh it's super lame.

46:44>> Yeah. I I loved him because he went to Coastal and then now I'm just like I don't I'm not going to chase Isaiah

46:49likely up the board. So many just so many tight ends, dude. It's crazy. Like every week on DraftKings, that's the thing. That's the thing on DraftKings,

46:56like you just got like the the two tight end stuff just projects so good. It's it's it's a little bit it's a little bit

47:01ridiculous. Um I I will say right now early Neighbors looks quite good to me porting that efficiency over from last week. Tons of concerns like Jamus might

47:13go back to zero. His shoulder might be cooked. like there there are a lot of reasons to doubt it, but I think a lot

47:18of that will be baked in to >> I think like neighbors is a perfect example of you know what like what I

47:24like at run the sims about being able to see the market share inputs and everything like if I were to like run

47:29stuff and I'm getting a lot of Malik neighbors I would immediately just look at whatever site I'm using like what they're projecting his target share for

47:38because if it's like 25% that's a very fair projection and if he's showing up at 25% in your lineups like he's

47:44probably a pretty good play you have some if you have him at like 30 31% and he's showing up a lot, I would like dial

47:50it back because I still think that there is some risk with, you know, Jamus being quarterback and uh maybe just not

47:57getting it to him quite as as often. But like if he's showing up at a 25% market share projection, I think that's sort of

48:02not a floor projection, but a a very I would say the lower end of like average.

48:08>> Yeah. Um okay, the commander side. So, I don't think Terry McLuren is gonna play this week.

48:15>> It just got something on him. I didn't read it, though.

48:17>> It he's off to the side. Okay.

48:19>> He's not He's not doing He's not doing full practice. Um hamstring hamstring injury for a 30-year-old. I'm guessing that's a multi-week injury. Just

48:28baseline expectation would be that is a multi-week injury. So, you've got Diggs with an increased target share. You've

48:36got Deami Brown, Burks, uh, like who knows. Antonio Williams did get up to a what I think like a 65% route share.

48:45>> 73 on fantasy points.

48:47>> Nice. I mean, that's it's really good.

48:49He had what the 85 yard touchdown called back by like a pretty ticky tacky penalty. Frankly, I got to be honest,

48:55it's, you know, it's nice for baseball and whatever for Jaden Daniels to be able to play this week. That is not who

49:01I want to see play. I want Athen uh Kak Manis to be like I I want him to actually just play all-time quarterback.

49:09I I would like for him to be [laughter] the quarterback for every team in the NFL. I have never in my life witnessed a

49:16backup quarterback come into a game and do like the reverse game manager. Every time he dropped back, I he was like, I

49:23think we can score a touchdown on this play. Hey, dude, you I you're a Commanders fan. I know you guys got [ __ ]

49:28houseed in that game. You didn't have fun watching him just like rip 70 yard bombs every play. That was wild to

49:36watch.

49:36>> Yeah. No, it was a lot more fun than I expected it to be when when Mariota went down. Like when when he came in the

49:43game, it was just like, "Oh man, this is going to be awful." Like it's just going to be checked down. And they started out

49:47that way. It was like two handoffs and then they tried like the naked bootleg for like a two- yard pass and I was

49:51like, "Oh my god, this game's going to be awful." But yeah, he did make it entertaining. I also hope that >> the touchdown pass to Trayon Bergs. TJ,

49:57he dropped that in the bucket like in >> I didn't see I didn't see it live. I was in my office and I like heard I heard it

50:03and then I had to go watch it because I have a ton of Trayon BS in uh baseball.

50:07Um but yeah, great throw. I just >> It was fun and I just hope I never see him play quarterback again.

50:13>> Give me Give me Antonio Williams actually at 3,800 as we're as we're going through this. Give me give me Antonio Williams over Khalif

50:20Raymond. Give me him over Eton Chisum.

50:22Give me him over Bryce Lance. give me that's my that is my preferred cheap receiver >> this week and frankly this year's

50:30commander rookie for me to hate but >> um the opportunities I think are there like he's >> running a bunch of routes and this is

50:37you know obviously assuming McLaren's out but uh running a bunch of routes he got targeted like nine times last week which I think would I guess would have

50:45been 10 if not for the penalty um he only caught three of them I'm not convinced he's good I didn't want the

50:50commanders to draft him blah blah blah but uh I think the opportunities are there. He's on the field. He's getting chances and he's really really cheap.

50:57>> Yeah. Yeah. I'm I'm very I'm very in on that. Um no no need to discuss the commanders backfield. None of them will

51:05ever be playable again for the rest of time. They they did >> I'm telling you Robert Robert Henry is going to be a thing for the Seahawks.

51:12>> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I agree. I agree.

51:14Actually, actually I do. But here's the deal. They they rugpulled me. They did this in the most annoying way. They played JCM on the first three third

51:22downs of the game and he converts one with a 35 yard reception. And I'm like, "Holy [ __ ] dude." They finally they

51:30finally figured it out. They finally realized that having an obvious give with what running back on the field is terrible strategy. And then you know

51:37what they did? They said, "Nah, dude.

51:40Unleash Craig Reynolds and Austin Eckler. That's how we're gonna win this game." I couldn't I couldn't believe it.

51:47I couldn't believe that the way JCM was rewarded with a 35 yard reception, the longest of his career, was to immediately be benched by Craig

51:55Reynolds. I I it it was it's just I don't even I don't even know what you do. I don't even know what you do with

52:00that.

52:00>> So, like I I got on Twitter later in the day and like your tweets were showing up in my whatever it's [snorts] called for

52:05on the for you page. And so, like I see you tweeting like, "Oh, I think it's finally happening for JCM." And like at

52:10this point, obviously we're in like the fourth quarter or the game's over.

52:13>> Yeah. At this point, you're watching Kron Allen run the >> Yeah. I'm like I've been seeing a ton of Eckler and Craig Reynolds. Like I I

52:19think me and Davis were just watching different games and then I saw the time stamp. I was like, "Oh, this was uh the

52:23very beginning."

52:24>> He he legit like he he played I think that their snap count the first three drives was 11 snaps for JCM, one for

52:32Kron or something. Like it it was it was it was I don't know. It is what it is.

52:37All right. The Broncos are not going to have Pat Bryant this week. Um, you might be tempted to play Troy Troy Franklin.

52:43You might be tempted to play Coron Sutton. Frankly, I think people are probably good on the Courtland Sutton experience. I think uh, poor guy, man.

52:50But it's time to go to the glue shed for for Coron Sutton. Waddle against the Chargers. That's my He right now on a

52:57Wednesday is my favorite play of the slate. I I think he's going to get like 12 targets probably in this game. Bo

53:03Nicks is such ass. I mean, it's actually crazy how bad he is. He is uh dead last in the NFL in

53:11or I guess he's first in the NFL in percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage, however you want to

53:16say, either dead last or or first um in that stuff. Like he just he is such a checkdown artist. But Wadd Wadd good in

53:23a in a checkdown artist offense and the Chargers are obviously not going to um apply any push back.

53:29>> Yeah, I think it's fine. Like I mean obviously like the ceiling on Waddle.

53:33don't for me like Patrick Bryant doesn't really move the needle much though like I think the biggest impact is just getting more routes for guys that you

53:41don't want to play anyway like Troy Franklin um Pat Bryant doesn't get targets so like it's hard to move the needle too much on the already

53:49established guys >> yes that that is true uh no Broncos running back is playable ever maybe maybe like six of them will get injured

54:00and there'll be one guy remaining at some point But they have the worst time share in the NFL.

54:05>> Highest share on the team each of the last two weeks. R.J. Harvey.

54:09>> R.J. Harvey leads all running backs in target share. He's a 21% target share, but he's getting like four rushes a game

54:15and never plays inside the uh the red zone. Amarian Hampton at $6,000 is so funny. Like literally played the third most snaps at running back on the

54:25Chargers last week. Um, I mean, Katon is not playable because he's a little bit he's a little bit too expensive, but uh

54:34I don't think Lad is gonna play this week. He suffered another injury last week. QJ I mean, is QJ the worst

54:42receiver in the NFL? Like, straight up, dude. I can't I can't believe this guy was ever a first- round pick. You know

54:47what it's like? It would be like the whatever team drafted Laquan Treadwell.

54:52It's been so long ago. I can't even remember what team drafted him, the Vikings. It would be like they never gave up. It would be like they were

54:58like, "No, dude. We drafted him in the first round. We got to just keep playing him." It's crazy how bad he is. But no,

55:05lad. Trey Harris 4100. The only Charger I I will even consider playing this week will be Trey Harris, who's not even that

55:14good, but is like fine.

55:15>> Yeah, I think he's solid. I played him last week with Vlad in like I I think Well, I I played him on the afternoons.

55:20Um >> yeah, >> but yeah, I mean he's cheap. you're kind of seeing the role expand a little bit and that was something that was talked

55:26about in the preseason as well. Um yeah, if lad's out I'm fine with that. I mean you can obviously make the case for QJ

55:33if lad's out but uh it's still to me that still kind of just turns into like it's so hard for him to be a guy that

55:40actually earns a bunch of targets. It's still going to be the same story of like well he got open behind the defense on a

55:44busted play and he scored or he didn't and he sucked.

55:47>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay. Then after that, we have the potential really good game, the 49ers, the Seahawks. It's the second

55:56highest total of the of the main slate.

55:58I'm worried the Seahawks defense might be quite good here. I mean, biggest thing that is interesting about the 49ers is the kind of the like McCaffry

56:09is just a regular guy now. I' I've been saying this all week, but he's a guy who should project for like 18 points every

56:14week, not 22 points every single week.

56:16the efficiency is dinged a little bit.

56:19The like he's he's just not getting all the early down work. It doesn't seem that the red zone offense is as designed

56:25around him. I mean, he still should project really well, but I don't know. I don't know how often I'll be playing him

56:32in the 8000s uh on on DraftKings anymore.

56:36>> I don't know. It's still tough for me not to. Like, he's just still so involved in the passing game. Um we

56:41we've seen, you know, the the rout participation improve as we expected after week one. uh 15 carries last week to six for Kalon Black. Um route

56:49participation 85% last or sorry 74% last week, 85% the week before that. The targets have been down a little bit, only 13% last week. He's only been above

56:5820% in target share once this year and that was week one when they were basically only playing him to catch passes. Um so yeah, I mean I like I'm

57:07with you in that 8200.

57:10There's always going to be guys in that range that look as good if not better.

57:14Whether that's, you know, that range are a little bit more expensive, whether it's Gibbs or Bejon or Taylor or whatever on any given slate, but like I

57:22still think the role looks good. Um, not Yeah. Not not as good as, you know, past years, but still certainly very

57:30good.

57:31>> Yeah. Yeah. We like and I guess maybe in the context of of this slate it's actually probably fine because there

57:38just not that many guys who even have like 30 point ceilings. Obviously McCaffrey like obviously what I'm saying could just be totally false and like he

57:45could score 27 touchdowns the rest of the way. It's totally in the range of outcomes. Like my whole deal has just

57:50been I think for the first time in Kyle Shanahan's entire life he's like my quarterback is incredible. I just want to see what this guy can do. I just want

57:58to like call and try different stuff because my quarterback is so good. Um, which obviously never felt that way with Garopolo or Lance or Nick Mullins or

58:07probably didn't even feel that way with Matt Ryan. Honestly, the way Perie is playing right now is like every bit as

58:13good as as like that peak peak Matt Ryan season.

58:16>> Yeah. Yeah. And as far as the McCaffrey stuff too, like clear to or important to emphasize like we're talking about

58:22McCaffrey quote unquote dropping off within that tier of like elite running backs. Nobody's saying you like, "Oh, yeah, McAffrey is a $6,500 guy now."

58:31>> Yeah. Um, okay. The Seattle side. So, the one of I didn't play that good last week, but the smartest thing I did was I

58:40did play Emanuel Wilson in the Spy last week. He barely got a price hike. He did, you know, I mean, he gave up the

58:47third down mark to George Alani or whatever, but he basically I mean, he kind of just took Ken Walker's role from last year, but then

58:55also played really well in it. I I mean I would have played Ken Walker last year at 5,300 in this spot um against the

59:0149ers probably and George Helani is George Hani is shittier Zack Charbanet but also is not getting the goal line work like any of the short yardage stuff

59:09is going to go to Wilson. I I think Wilson's probably a jam at 5300 honestly.

59:14>> So I did the midwit thing with Wilson last week. I I ended up with him in like one or two of my lineups. He was in a

59:19lineup that I won something with. like where when I went to project and like kind of looked I was like man he might

59:24just dominate touches here but it's Emanuel Wilson they've kind of used Tani like do I am I really going to do this

59:30and I I didn't um but yeah he we saw him dominate touches like the week before after uh what's his name got hurt uh

59:39Price and then we saw it again last week and one thing that I think is actually really important too is that he's two

59:45weeks in a row now also basically had the same route participation as Hani um 31% last week for Hani, 35% for Wilson,

59:5328 apiece the week before that. So where like Helani is gen, you know, you kind of thought they would use him as like

60:01the third down guy. He's not even like completely taking over that role necessarily. So I'm with you. Like it's scary in the sense that I think any

60:10given week Emanuel Wilson can just completely disappear and and fall off and you know, for a variety of reasons.

60:15But for a $5,300 running back, he did dominate carries last week. He was still involved in the passing game. I think

60:22had three receptions. So, like I'm with you. I think his role is going to protect well for the price.

60:27>> Yeah. Yeah. I I really I really like him this week. I really I just really like this game. Like I think these Well,

60:33these NFC West games either go one of two ways. They are the worst most unwatchable defensive slogs of all time or they go insane. like the the McVey uh

60:44Shanahan games you always get excited about and then they're always terrible because those guys kind of like both have each other's numbers but then

60:50sometimes these Seahawks 49ers games you're like >> totally dude it's 42 to 38 this is what happened like why like you know uh JSN

61:00has four receiving touchdowns or whatever so I I just think this game is pretty interesting and then the final game I mean there's absolutely zero

61:08usage concerns about the line the Lions are so funny last game. They just played their starters every snap except Isaac Tesla came off for Brock Wright once.

61:18That's it. That's it. And then I mean Baky came in for like 10 snaps or whatever, but they they just play their

61:24starters. You know exactly who they're playing. So the only real question in this game is >> what is up with Jeremiah Love's ankle?

61:32Is his ankle good? Is his ankle bad? He was He got 28 touches the week before.

61:37He was the clear starter last week. Then he injured his ankle and Tyler Algier played the final I think 17 snaps of the

61:43game, got all the two-minute drill stuff. But everyone who's all mad at the Cardinals coaches from last week, I actually think they're wrong. And I

61:52think they would have happily played Jeremiah Love in a similar role to the week before, but Love bang bang like injured his other ankle.

62:00>> Yeah. And like I Yeah. So even like overall last week his role in terms of carries was basically the same as week

62:07two and then down from week three. So, it wasn't like they clearly like walked everything back. It definitely seemed like he just got banged up during the

62:15game. Um, I think that the role is still good uh for him.

62:22>> Yeah. Yeah. Uh, all right guys, there we go. Those are the input things to think about as you are playing fantasy

62:29football this upcoming week. Uh, make sure to like the video. Make sure to subscribe to the channel.

More episodes from Davis Mattek

6

You Won't Win In Week 6 Without These Picks artwork

You Won't Win In Week 6 Without These Picks

Oct 16, 2026

Thinking About NFL DFS (Week 6) artwork

Thinking About NFL DFS (Week 6)

Oct 15, 2026

Week 5 Picks, Props, Survivor artwork

Week 5 Picks, Props, Survivor

Oct 10, 2026

It Is Nico Time artwork

It Is Nico Time

Oct 9, 2026

He Is Playing? artwork

Oct 8, 2026

Week 5 Game-by-Game Fantasy Football Preview artwork

Week 5 Game-by-Game Fantasy Football Preview

Oct 8, 2026