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VideoFrom Davis Mattek

Week 4 Picks, Props, Survivor

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 6 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Oct 3, 2026

Published

Sat, October 3, 2026

9

Player insights

9

Players mentioned

Topics

Brock PurdyBucky IrvingJeremiyah LoveJosh DownsJustin JeffersonKenneth Walker IIILadd McConkeyLuther BurdenMichael Wilson

Player analysis

Player insights

9

Brock Purdy

PositiveProjection36:32

Brock Purdy is projected at 19.15 fantasy points against Denver's defense and represents undervalued value in DFS. The source emphasizes Purdy's elite execution of Kyle Shanahan's offense, second-place MVP odds, and recent high-level performance (including a 40-yard TD called back on holding penalty last week). Purdy is compared favorably to Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in terms of accomplishment; Kyle Shanahan noted Purdy's development reminds him of Matt Ryan in 2016. The source highlights Purdy's improved arm talent this offseason and expects the Denver-San Francisco matchup to be competitive, favoring Purdy. The source targets Purdy over 19.15 fantasy points as a parlay leg.

Bucky Irving

PositiveProjection13:48

Davis Mattek expects the Buccaneers to heavily establish the run game against the Packers defense with a mobile QB in Jaylen Daniels. Irving's rushing yards prop of 55 yards is assessed as too low given the anticipated run-heavy game plan and Irving's recent strong performance. Irving has been 'balling out' recently, and Mattek expects his props to be set at relatively low levels, making him a candidate for a Flex 4 parlay on Underdog. Mattek is also taking Irving to exceed 13.5 rush attempts as part of a prop pick slate.

Jeremiyah Love

PositiveProjection17:17

Davis Mattek calls this one of his biggest stances of the week. Love is priced at $5,800 on DraftKings with a 13.55 fantasy points prop. Mattek emphasizes Love was drafted third overall for a reason, is now fully healthy after recovering from a high ankle sprain, and the matchup is competitive and winnable, supporting the projection. Love was initially fading at ADP 12 early in the week, but Mattek is now reconsidering after Love posted a 20+ touch game and went off last week. Mattek believes if coaches are smart they should feed Love heavily as their clearly best back, especially with the team being 2.5-point favorites against the Giants and able to lean on the run game. Mattek is taking Love to exceed 13.55 fantasy points as part of his prop pick slate.

Josh Downs

PositiveValue7:31

Davis Mattek identifies Josh Downs as his absolute favorite player prop of the week, expressing disbelief at how he is being priced at 5.5 receptions or 62.5 receiving yards. Downs faces primary coverage from a defender with poor coverage skills (nicknamed 'stand real still'), the Commanders pass defense has been brutal, and Downs has achieved a double-digit average depth of target for the first time in his career this year. With Keenan Allen and Tyler Warren handling short-area routes, Downs is the focal point of the Colts offense without Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr., making him a strong value play. Mattek expresses strong confidence in Downs as a prop play, calling it a lock and recommending it as a parlay leg.

Justin Jefferson

NegativeInjury4:00

Jefferson's potential absence from the Vikings-Dolphins Week 4 matchup is a key uncertainty factor; Davis Mattek acknowledges this injury risk while still backing the Vikings' field position advantage and defensive dominance against Miami. Mattek notes that missing Jefferson is a big deal for the Vikings offense, but they can likely compensate by establishing the run game in their matchup against Miami.

Kenneth Walker III

PositiveUsage34:00

Davis Mattek highlights Kenneth Walker as a consistent rushing touchdown prop play similar to Derrick Henry. Backfield split data shows Walker dominates touches when the Chiefs are not leading by 10+ points: 58 carries and 17 targets versus Isiah Pacheco's 8 carries and 2 targets. In blowout situations, usage equalizes (Walker 7 carries/1 target, Pacheco 8 carries/2 targets). Against Denver with a 4.5-point spread—a closer divisional matchup—Walker should see elevated volume, making him a favorable DFS and prop play despite coach speak about Pacheco's increased role.

Ladd McConkey

PositiveInjury25:10

Ladd McConkey is banged up, which creates target distribution opportunity for other Chargers receivers. Davis Mattek cited McConkey's injury status as rationale for considering contrarian hunch plays on teammates who may see increased target volume.

Luther Burden

PositiveValue11:49

Luther Burden is having a solid start with 11 targets and a designed touchdown last week, yet market perception is inflated relative to his actual production. Davis Mattek notes that people are talking about Burden as if he's having Marvin Harrison Jr's start to the season, when in reality his production is more modest. Mattek is taking the 46.5 receiving yards prop, implying the line undervalues his opportunity and output.

Michael Wilson

PositiveValue20:20

Davis Mattek tracked Michael Lafleur's pre-season deployment comments about the Z-role in the Rams offense, comparing Wilson to Puka Nakua and Robert Woods. Wilson went off at the end of last season; Mattek avoided him in weeks 1–2 but targeted him heavily in week 3 against the Niners as a scroll-down option with solid projections and favorable game environment. Despite not having a strong game yet this season, Wilson's projection remained comparable to other late-round wide receivers (WR35 range), making him underowned relative to expected output due to game-log bias. Mattek was overweight on Wilson with 17 of 114 teams drafted in the BR, indicating strong conviction; scrolling down to Wilson didn't sacrifice much projection versus receivers going at the very end around rounds five and six.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

688

0:00Great week last week on the program. My favorite pick against the spread easily hit. Nez's favorite pick against the spread easily hit. Filled in for my dude

0:09Dave as uh my guy Dave was too busy winning $50,000. We're going to cover that a little bit later on the program.

0:15We're going to go over his VR lineup. We are going to make some picks against the spread. We're going to fire some props.

0:20We are going to talk about the touchdown Survivor over on Splash Sports. Ben Survivor as well. My favorite pick against the spread. I'm actually going

0:28back to the well of the only loss I have on the year. Uh the Jacksonville Jaguars failed to beat the Denver Broncos, but

0:35I'm going back to the well. I think the Jags are an absolute wagon, Dave. I I think that the Jacksonville Jaguars are

0:42basically outside of the Chiefs, I think they're the class of the AFC. And if we were only evaluating teams on the

0:48context of this year and just not their historical context, I think they're the best team in the AFC. I think they're

0:53better than the Bills because I think their defense is much much better than the Bills. Their run defense is insane.

0:59We're talking like historical top tier run defense. They're top five in every DBOA metric, top five in every EPA per play metric. And I'm a little I don't

1:09know about you, I'm a little unconvinced by this idea that the Bengals defense is all of a sudden very very good. Well,

1:15the Bengals defense has definitely improved with uh definitely Lawrence, but I'm really excited for this game just from the aspect that we haven't

1:22seen the Jags gotten pushed that much. So, I'm excited to see if if the Bengals will be able to bounce back and kind of have like a good

1:30a good classic shootout with the with the Jags. So, I'm looking forward to this game. I like the Jag side, though.

1:36>> I do I do hope that we do get a uh a shut out or like a legitimate shootout here. But basically, one of the big

1:42reasons I think to be in on the Jags is that the Jags have done a great re like a great job protecting Trevor Lawrence

1:49thus far. He's only faced pressure on 20% of his drop backs. He's got 2.4 average time to throw. He's only been

1:56sacked four times in three games. So, it's just like really, really hard for opposing defenses to generate pressure on Trevor Lawrence. And then you also

2:04have um you know, I mean, you you've got like these really really good receivers.

2:10Like I I think that's one of the things that still is not really surfaced in mainstream football discussion is just how much having good receivers impacts

2:20quarterback play. Like we've just seen it time and time again these great quarterbacks when you take away their great receivers. Like Mahomes looked

2:26positively pedestrian last season with a bad run game, bad receivers. We've seen it with Burrow with Chase off the field.

2:33I mean we've certainly seen it in Lawrence's career before the Jags had all these receivers. I mean, we've seen Trevor Lawrence look terrible.

2:40>> Yeah. Um, yeah. I just, yeah, kind of put a bow on that. Just like the Jags are wagging and I don't think the

2:48market's really giving them that credit yet. So, I actually took him to win the Super Bowl uh earlier in the week. So,

2:54>> wow. Took him to win at what number?

2:57>> Uh, I think was it four? Let me let me double check.

3:01>> That's pretty good. I I I actually I honestly like I actually like that. So right now, I mean, frankly, there's no

3:07chance I would bet the Rams, the Bills, the Niners, or the Ravens. These numbers best to me, best number on the board. I

3:13I actually quite like I actually quite like uh that 22 to1 number on on the Jags right there. I think that's really

3:20strong. Like the Patriots or the Vikings being listed at the same tier. No, no chance. Completely completely disagree with that.

3:26>> Yeah, I took them 20 to1 on Boba.

3:29They're 19 to1 on FanDuel, 22 to1 on on DraftKings. Uh yeah, I just I just think the market's not giving them enough

3:36credit and at this price, I'm totally cool taking that gamble. So, uh yeah, give me give me some Jags futures and

3:42then I like the Jags money line this week. I think there's a there's a good chance, not good chance, but I think

3:47there's a a decent chance they can get the one seed this year. So, >> yeah. All right. Uh do you have a

3:53favorite pick against the spread this week?

3:55>> I do. Uh give me the Vikings minus 11 - 10 and a half uh versus the Dolphins. I understand Kyler's not playing great

4:02football. I understand Justin Jefferson might not be in this game. Uh I just think the field position battle against Brian Forest is gonna be too good for

4:10the for the Vikings to to really not just absolutely slam uh the Dolphins. I wouldn't be surprised if they won like

4:1721 to zero. So like the Vikings this week.

4:20>> All right, I'm in. Done. Bet it. Uh every week I am betting $50 of my own money on all of these picks and then

4:27we're going to fire a bunch of props as well. I mean, this is one of the most interesting games. We're going to get

4:32into it a little bit more when we talk Survivor, but it's like kind of the the immovable force meets the very very

4:38stoppable object. The Dolphins, I mean, maybe for half a possession, they were kind of in it against the Chiefs because they got uh they got a lucky bounce of

4:46the ball, but we're talking about a team that has no good defensive players.

4:50They're not generating any pressure.

4:52They are, you know, bottom five in all the EPA in DVA stats. The Vikings offense through three games has been brutal. I don't know. It's It's hard for

5:01me to say Kyler is going to be this bad for the entirety of the season. And it's hard for me to think KOC can't get more

5:09out of these guys. I mean, missing Jefferson is a big deal, but they can probably just run in this game. I mean,

5:14they and the deep like dude, Malik Willis versus Brian Flores, that is an insane mismatch. And then even like if they had a chain, if they had uh Caleb

5:23Douglas, like still I think they'd be drawing pretty close to dead. But like the lack of talent, I just think Brian F

5:29is going to give this this offense hell.

5:30So I think we're going to see a lot of position a lot of field positions around like the their own 50 and whatnot. So

5:36I'm excited for this game from a how badly uh are the Dolphins going to do against Brian Flores perspective. Yeah, you know, Brian Flores is one of the few

5:45guys like they're they're um there's a lot of defensive coordinators whose names we know that uh that we quickly for like remember when Lou Amaruno was

5:54supposed to have like he cracked the code like oh he's the guy he's the guy who uh you know can shut down Patrick

5:59Mahomes, right? And a lot of that time a lot of the times that's more like personnel based but with Flores it's

6:05not. It's like his defense has always traveled with him. He always has these really crazy exotic blitz schemes. And the thing I think clearly the spot you

6:12don't want the Dolphins and Malik Willis in is being down a touchdown, being down 10 points. I mean, we saw it in the

6:18second half against Kansas City. It was just like they got down 10 points and that was it. And frankly, you know,

6:24Achan, it's hard to it's hard to say a running back is like worth too much versus the spread, but Achan is probably

6:30on the context of this team, he's got to be worth a point or two because his replacements are two of the least

6:36efficient running backs in the entire NFL. And the whole team is built around like running and running the ball and keeping possession of the ball.

6:44>> Yeah. The only way I see this like really going south is if Kyler really just is ass like he has been this entire

6:50season and since his late stand with the Cardinals. Uh but I really just think they're just going to run establish the

6:55out of the run and um uh get some Aaron Jones a nice touchdown. We'll talk a little bit more about that later in

7:01the show, but yeah, give me Vikings minus 10 and a half minus 108.

7:06>> All right, there we go. two favorite picks against the spread. Uh got both of those purchased myself. The Minnesota Vikings minus 10 half points. And I just

7:14took instead of taking the two and a half points, I just took the Jacksonville Jaguars money line. Now we are going to go fire some of our

7:21favorite uh player props this week. And uh first one for me to begin with is uh my absolute favorite one is uh I I mean

7:31I can't I actually can't believe that this is how Josh Downs is being priced.

7:35I mean, either five and a half receptions or 62 and a half yards, he is going to be facing primary coverage from

7:42a man whose nickname is stand real still. Uh, the Commander pass defense has been brutal, brutal through two games. And actually, if you look at

7:53>> who what if Josh Downs becomes like his final evolution, who is he like going to play like? And it's going to be the guy

7:59who destroyed them for 40 fantasy points last week. Jackson Smith and Jake. I'm not saying Josh Downs is that good. I'm

8:05not saying he isn't that good either though. Um I I love Josh DS. So Josh DS hires uh really interesting thing is he

8:13finally has like a real depth of target because Keenan and Tyler Warren are doing the short area stuff there. His his average depth of target starts with

8:22two digits for the first time in his career this year.

8:25>> Oh wow. Okay. I did not know that. But yeah, this is just like a easy uh just about the over and close your eyes. And

8:32I love Josh Josh this week. Uh don't even talk too much about it.

8:37>> Yeah. Uh and I mean as as as you would think, we got the the boys over here on Mike Nuggets, you know, they're they're

8:44they're on it. Stiken obviously knows like his offense without Alec Pierce and without Michael Pitman Jr. gone. Like Downs has been the center of what

8:53they're doing. We are going to take starting off our Sunday morning in the London game. I'm just going to do the 62

8:59and a half receiving yards here for uh for my favorite. And you can take that across the board. I've got that worked

9:04in on DraftKings. I've got that worked in on bet 365, but we're just going to fire here on the uh the old dog app.

9:11>> I love it. This is a easy click for me.

9:13Uh onto my pick. Let's go on to the theme of this Jags team. It's just an absolute wagon. Let's see some tuning

9:20props. I got a nice quote about him.

9:22>> Um >> yeah, let's see a little bit more into 210. I know uh the Bengals run defense is a lot better than it has in years

9:29past. Uh, but I still just I just can't stop betting on this Jags team. Uh, what is his longest rush? Uh, rush total.

9:38>> All right, I'm gonna guess I'm just guessing right now. Longest I'm going to guess longest rush 16 and a half.

9:46>> Oh, baby.

9:46>> Uh, longest rush 14 and a half. Yeah, >> 14 and a half.

9:51>> I think that's all day.

9:52>> So, Liam Cohen on Oh, this was this morning actually. He was kind of talking about how much better uh Tudin has been

9:59as a back this year and how he's been not so much getting to the like first or like getting past to the second level.

10:07Uh so I kind of think they're going to try to scheme up some things in this game and get him to break one loose

10:12because he's kind of saying like hey he's done everything great but he hasn't done like the one thing he's really good

10:16at is breaking these 60 yards and we haven't seen that yet. Uh so I I'm going to bet that we see that this week. Yeah,

10:23I love it. And I feel like it's it's kind of one of those really interesting things that happens with guys like

10:28Toutin. Like um do you like the the favorite stat that everyone loves right now is he hasn't had any rushes longer

10:34than 15 yards.

10:36>> And you know what that's that stat really reminds me of how for the first two years of Bean Robinson's career, the

10:42stat was, you know, Bean Robinson, he's a great player, but he doesn't have any plays over 30 yards in his NFL career.

10:47And then obviously in year three it's just like 60 yard touchdown, 70 yard touchdown, 80 yard touchdown. Like no one can stop him. And not that not that

10:55Bichel Tutin is as good as Bejian Robinson. Again, not saying he's not either. I I think I I think that Tuton

11:02is is like, you know, in like my like reddraft stuff, like rest of season rankings, I have him like way higher

11:07than Consensus because he's producing right now with the Jags playing four running backs. I I don't I think in like serious games like this against a team

11:18uh you know that is really good and and that this this result by the way will matter for potential like playoff

11:23tiebreaker type stuff I I think the Jags are going to go all in here. I think we probably get like two 20 to touches in

11:30this game. So I I love this one.

11:32>> Yeah, just the coach speak around him has just like slowly and slowly gotten more and more positive as the season has

11:37gone on. And yeah, I really like Tudin this week. I think there's a lot of reasons to think why he can get, you

11:43know, a 15 yard rush even though he hasn't had that this year.

11:46>> Yeah. I uh I love that. Okay. All right.

11:49My next one. I mean, I you know, it it people people hate talking about the Bears receivers. All anyone wants to

11:56talk about is Khalif Raymond. I I actually kind of think that this stuff is getting ridiculous because Luther Burden is having a totally fine start to

12:05the year, but you would think the way people are talking about this guy that he's having like Marvin Harrison Jr's start to the season. Uh this dude had 11

12:13targets, had a designed touchdown like specifically for him last week. I'm going to take the 46 and half receiving yards. I do think probably I actually

12:23think Begent will probably start this game. Um I I you know of course uh Ben Johnson I mean this is classic football

12:30guy stuff hasn't been willing to say who is going to start but I I do think it will probably be which is fine by me you

12:38know I think Beent is going to do a really similar thing to Case Keenum like he's just gonna he's going to point and

12:46deliver right I mean that is why the offense looked a little bit more like a normal NFL offense last week cuz

12:53although you know the case ke himself up. It was a fun game and everything. He had two passes that the defender had

13:00been a little bit more locked in. Those are going for six the other way. Like it was not like Case Keenum had the

13:05greatest game anyone's ever seen.

13:07>> No, I think people forgetting that. I think he was like really testing the out routes uh on Monday. And yeah, I I

13:13personally think we see Tyson, but I don't think that really matters for for Burden's yards or receptions or any of his props.

13:19>> Yes. Um All right. Give me a fourth one because I've I've realized this with doing three. the the highest EV um stuff

13:26you can do on Underdog, assuming all the picks are from different games is the the Flex 4. So, uh we I I I I had known

13:36that but had forgot to uh to put that in play. So, uh give me uh give me another one you want to look at.

13:42>> Okay. Are we going to do like a four-leggger and then like a more degenerate one with a Okay, >> we will get more degenerate.

13:48>> Okay, I will give you uh a little bit safer as they call it. Let me see. Bucky Irving's props.

13:54>> Okay. Uh Bucky Irving. I bet they're going to be fairly low. Yeah, these are these are really in the context of Bucky

14:00Irving. These are not particularly high.

14:02>> Yeah, I am good with any of these, whether it's rush yards or longest rush.

14:06I would like to pick your brain on that, but basically, Zack Robinson came out yesterday and said like, "Hey, uh we

14:12want to get Kenny Gainwell more involved, but he hasn't really proved to us that he's worth the touches." And Buckyy's kind of been balling out. So to

14:20me, uh, if you go to that second, um, if you, uh, type in Kenny Gainwall, Gainwell, because it was, it was a quote

14:28about Kenneth Gainwell, but then he talks a little bit more about Bucky.

14:31But, uh, yeah, that second quote right there, uh, if chat wants to read it, if you want to read it, but to me that

14:37reads as like, hey, Bucky over's been outstanding. We know we have Kenny Gainwell. He has to prove to us that he

14:43has to get on the field before we take some touches away from Bucky. So, uh, given that you now have a a much more

14:48mobile QB, I know Jaylen Daniels isn't like some superstar world beater in terms of his legs, but I really think, uh, just given the state of the Packers

14:57defense and the game plan the Bucks are going to approach with, they're just really, really, really going to try to establish the run this game. And, uh, 55

15:04yards seems a little bit tad low for >> Why don't we just do why don't we just do the rushing attempts? I mean, yards

15:09yards is fine, too, but I actually completely agree with your analysis there. I think, look, I would love if Jaylen Daniels is awesome in this game.

15:16I I don't think he is gonna be. I think it would be really cool. It'd be a cool story if he was, but I I and I I

15:22actually like that quote a good bit because >> the playing time between Bucky and Gainwell was like obviously I mean a

15:29huge discussion point for all of us this off seasonason. I mean Gainwell did get paid a good bit of money, but they

15:34really haven't used him at all. And then Bucky was not out there for the final drive. And there was like a little bit

15:39of uh of coach speak about it being like Bucky messed up like a pass protection thing or whatever. But again, we're not

15:47really worried about that in this game because we're anticipating the Buccaneers trying to absolutely keep this one on the ground um as much as

15:53possible. So, we're going to do that.

15:55And then if I do flex for 75 bucks, that gets us to a flex four for play for up to 500. Oh, I've reached

16:06my I've already reached my [laughter] limit. I'm limited. I'm limited on B shell tutin.

16:12>> How many props have you taken on him this week, buddy? Like that's >> a lot. A lot apparently. Let's see.

16:17Let's see the lowest amount I can do for this. Okay. All right. I'm subbing out.

16:21I'm subbing out.

16:22>> We can audible on this one. We got a because I that apparently apparently I've been limited on B.

16:28>> Um this is so actually I'm going to leave this for the for the more the generate play but yeah let me see some

16:35neighbors props.

16:37>> Um I know the game environment could be kind of good. 50 God I don't want to bet. I was >> I think 54 is high. Yeah.

16:44>> I was I was going to advocate for a lower on him just given he came on the mic yesterday and basically said like

16:48yeah I don't trust my knee still like this >> trust my knee. I don't I don't feel good. And just given how we seen Jameus

16:55Winston play like I think there's like an off chance that this dude's uh arm is just shot but just betting under 54

17:03yards for for someone like Malik Neighbors does not feel good. I don't want to advocate that for the viewers.

17:07It looks like you have something something to >> I do. I do got this one. Uh we're just going to swap out Belle Tutin for

17:13Jeremiah Love. Fantasy points 13.55.

17:17This is one of my This is one of my biggest stances this week in the um in the BRS and and in DraftKings. I mean,

17:25he's $5,800 on DraftKings, but I think they showed us last week that like it's it's go time. They took him, you know,

17:32third overall for a reason. And the thing that I think was a little bit missed in the the Tyler Algier tilt the

17:40first couple weeks of the season was this dude was coming off of a high ankle sprain. like it it had kind of gotten

17:46forgotten because he just played in week one and then, you know, didn't limp off the field or anything, but I think he's

17:51probably just fully healthy to go here.

17:53And this is a game like they can just win. They can just win this game. Like they're like this is going to be a

17:59totally competitive game. So, we're going to go 13.55 fantasy points and then let's hope that I'm not Okay, now I'm now I'm location

18:09limited.

18:11>> We're having we're having we're having a tough time. I mean, this does this does happen to me every so often, but uh I

18:17mean, yeah. Where you where you at on Jeremiah Love and the VRs and stuff this week.

18:20>> Yeah, I was fading. So, I've only done 30 so far, and I did some before uh the ETR projections came out. Uh and he was

18:26going a little early uh for my liking in the week. He was going around like ADP12. I will give some context and just

18:32like some devil's advocate to to your thesis is that please Michael Michael Fuller again this was two weeks ago so this was not this was not after the last

18:40game but he was really just kind of saying like this is a long season uh we're kind of just going with the hot

18:45hand approach uh again this was this was two weeks ago so I don't want to read too much into it but it's just kind of

18:50in the back of my mind again this is since this quote he has now had this is from September 18th so again very long

18:57ago uh since this quote Jeremiah Love has now a 20something touch game and and went off uh this past week. So, I don't

19:05want to read too much into it. I just still think there is a slight possibility. It's still a hot hand approach, not just like a oh, this is

19:11just Jeremiah's backfield now. So, um not not that quote doesn't like move me enough from me to like sway off that bet

19:18or anything. I'm just, you know, keep that in the back of my mind. But, uh yeah, I just think they you know, if the

19:23coaches are smart, they should just feed the [ __ ] out of this guy. He's clearly their best back and they can definitely

19:28beat the Giants this week. uh just leaning on that run game. So, >> I think they're they might even be I

19:33think they're maybe even favorites in this game.

19:36>> It's in New York. So, I I would be shocked that they're favorites. Um are they? Let me let me look for you. I

19:43got you.

19:44>> NFL lines. I I think they >> they are Wow, they are.

19:49>> Yeah, they are. They're two and a half point favorites.

19:51>> Two and a half point favorites in uh in New York. That is crazy, man. What >> isn't it insane? Um, yeah, if that's the

20:00case, yeah, let's let's lean into this Jeremiah Love uh usage from last week and let's just ignore the quote from two

20:06weeks ago.

20:06>> They must be they must just be telling us that um Jameus Winston is just shot.

20:13>> He's just he's just he's just completely cooked.

20:15>> I bet we see JJ start by week nine.

20:19>> Yeah.

20:19>> Oh, god damn it. I didn't even mean to do that. But but uh yes, I think after their buy they go like Texans week

20:25seven. and I think goodbye in week eight and then I I wouldn't be shocked if we saw JJ then.

20:30>> All right. Well, I have to figure out my location stuff. So, let's talk about your uh let's talk about your BR sweat

20:35from last week while I try to figure out the uh the location stuff. So, shipped 50k in the main BR. Perie, Gibbs, Cook,

20:44Garrett Wilson. Scroll the f down for Michael Wilson, George KD. Uh I mean, I what I mean talk me through your

20:53process. Talk to me how you're you're drafting these. Talk me through Michael Wilson. Like uh what's your what's kind of your weekly BR process like?

21:00>> Yeah. So, I kind of have like a similar process as I did with the Dog Bowl last year. And like honestly, thank god

21:05there's no dog bowl this year because I would just be punting this money every week trying to get a ticket. Um but from

21:10like the top down, there's this quote from literally from before the season even started. was kind of Michael Laflur talking about uh the Z-roll in his

21:19offense and how Puka is kind of like the the visionary of that and obviously Puka or Michael Wilson is not Puka Nakua but

21:27just the way they're deployed he was kind of comparing them uh to Robert Woods of the past Puka Nu of last year

21:32so that was always in the back of my mind so I knew coming into the season it's like okay I want to play Michael

21:36Wilson at some sub week if the ownership like didn't carry over from last year I know he went off at the end of the last

21:43season uh So, like week one against the Chargers, I was like, "No, I don't want this." Obviously, against Seattle, week two, I definitely didn't want it. Week

21:49three against the Niners, we know they're really banged up. This quote has just been in the back of my mind for

21:54literally a month and a half now. I was like, "Okay, this is a perfect place to play Michael Wilson. He's going to be a

21:59really long guy." The projections were uh still good for like a scroll down option in the sixth round in the BR

22:05Street. So, uh I really just like this game environment in general. It was my favorite one to attack for the week. Uh,

22:12so yeah, it was just pretty easy decision for me to scroll down there. So I think there's a 114 Michael Wilson

22:19teams drafted in the BR. Uh, and I think I had like 17 of them. So I was very very overweight the field on Michael

22:26Wilson and I would say probably half of those were correlated uh, within this game environment. So this is a nice little uh, win for the correlation bros.

22:33I have Brock Pury, Corley with obviously KD bring back Michael Wilson and then Gibbs bring back with with Garrett Wilson or Jamir Gibbs brought back with

22:42uh Garrett Wilson. So got the Wilson brothers helping me ship 50K. And then I also got fourth place. So that's not I

22:48don't think that's in the screenshot or in the tweet, but I had the same exact lineup. Uh just one v one with uh Jacobe

22:54Brassette instead of Michael Wilson. So uh yeah, obviously you have to run really good. Like I was fading so many things at the end of the game. Like I

23:03was fading uh Olive garbage time. Shuck was getting there. He ended up throwing two picks. I was fading like the Cowboys

23:09overtime game. And for the first time in my entire life, I was like, "Rain Dakota Prescott, I am praying on your downfall.

23:15Please throw a [ __ ] pick or something so this game ends." And thankfully not to throw a pick, which is Brian

23:19Chenheimer calling a horrible game at the very end to help me secure a victory. But I'm pretty sure I don't I

23:25don't win this if that game goes into OT because there's some uh CD and Derrick Derk Henry teams behind me. Um, but

23:31yeah, obviously got lucky in a lot of ways, but also the scroll down felt pretty good this past week. Uh, then the

23:38higher week I didn't hear his name get brought up a single time. I was like, this is like a very high total. Like

23:43there's expected to be chucking the ball. Like I don't understand it. So I I took a strong stand and thankfully it

23:48worked out.

23:50>> You know, I mean to some degree we like to think that like a lot of us like to think like all

23:57fantasy sports are like kind of solved.

23:59everyone just like runs the projections and then you know it's just we we exist in one version of the Sims but in if you

24:08ran this slate over 900 times you know our lineups would be plus EV or whatever but also >> people can't help but be game log bros

24:15like if Michael Wilson has not had a good game yet this season he's just not going to project that well and he's not

24:20going to get and and even if he projects fine if he projects if if the wide receiver 35 in a BR slate projects the

24:27same as the wide receiver It doesn't matter.

24:30>> People are still not going to click the guy who hasn't had a good game yet. Now that Michael Wilson has had a good game.

24:35>> Well, pro well and he will probably be clicked for the rest of the year more often than his projection would

24:41indicate, right? Um I mean that is just that is just the way that is just the way things go. like they're they're and

24:48and frankly it's also a format like as your results from last week would indicate it's actually like a pretty good format for betting your hunches

24:57when the rest of the field is not doing it right. So um I mean I haven't I' I think I've literally drafted like two

25:03this week. I haven't started drafting any yet. But it's a pretty good format where if um I don't know like let's say

25:10let's say you had a hunch this week on Tucker Craft or whatever, you know, it's like a pretty good pretty good week to

25:18do the hunch or or maybe your your hunch is uh Gadston gets a bunch of targets with Lad Mcconkey banged up or something

25:24because people way overdraft the marginal guys like the quarterback five, the tight end seven, the wide receiver

25:3213, the running back 14. These guys are way overowned relative to guys who project effectively the exact same as them.

25:41>> Yeah. And really just like I guess it's like more evergreen. This goes for like any VR contest, but really it's just

25:46like building a strongly projected team like the first four to five rounds. And then just kind of scrolling down in a in

25:52a correlated way uh to where it makes sense. Like I wasn't giving up that much projection when scrolling down to Michael Wilson. Uh to me he wasn't that

25:59much different than the wide receivers going at the very end around five and six. So yeah, just build like strong teams at the beginning and then you know

26:06tag it on with uh someone late that still projects well. So uh easier said than done trying to find which player

26:12that is. But uh it's a pretty good process and just you know build a good team or build a well a well correlated

26:19and projected team in the first few rounds and then and then scroll down.

26:22It's something that we've all been advocating for years but a lot of people still don't do. So >> it's pretty it's pretty simple. Uh I was

26:30>> I was able I was able to figure it out.

26:32I had to open up a different window, but I got it up in I got us up in uh in Firefox. So, here's uh here's the pick.

26:40Jeremiah Love, higher than 13.55 fantasy points. Josh DS higher than 62 and a half receiving yards. Luther Burton higher than 46 and a half receiving

26:50yards. Bucky Irving higher than 13 and a half rush attempts. We We got it. We shipped it. We are We are We are very

26:57happy about where we're at right here.

27:00Feel good about this one. And now we can go a little bit more degenerate. I wasn't able to tune into the show last

27:05week. Was Urinez's uh pickum close to hitting? I think we hit our first two week or we hit the first week, right?

27:11And then >> we hit we hit we hit the first week and we hit the we if you flexed it the uh

27:16the second week we got it. Um I mean obviously I have uh a million uh picks sitting in here so hard for me to

27:23remember. A couple good ones last night.

27:26Looks like this was a good one.

27:28>> I don't even remember what that one was.

27:31Uh, man, I maybe should maybe should stop doing so many of these. [laughter] Uh, >> I I I do one a week and it's just the

27:40one that we do on the show because otherwise if I do more than one, it's just going to get way way too donkey on

27:44my end. So, >> yeah. Uh, you know what? No, we uh we didn't get there because this is it right here. And uh which it's whichever

27:53one of these $50 ones, but we didn't Oh, JCM didn't score. There you go.

27:57>> Oh, is that the Cowboys? Oh, yeah.

27:58That's when um when Mariota came in and and um Correct. Okay. Yeah. Okay.

28:03>> Yes.

28:04>> Unfortunate.

28:04>> Uh all right. So now now we can don it up. We've done we've done one serious one. Now we can don it up with with an

28:10aer. [clears throat] >> This is going to be gross. I kind of want to tag on to what we just did so we

28:15can uh add the downs and all that at the very end. Let me see. God, I can't believe I'm about to say this out loud.

28:20Let me see if there's any Jordan Watkins or Brandon Cooks blinds. Um >> Watkins for a touchdown.

28:27>> Just a touchdown. Yeah, there's no shot.

28:30Okay. If they had like a >> uh I would say Chad, if like either one of those players are lined um early on

28:36Sunday morning, that's something I would look into. Um but obviously we can't take any of that right now. So, one uh

28:44another one I want to see is uh Span Ford, the tight end for the Cowboys.

28:48>> They should they should have him there.

28:50Yes. All day. All day or three receiving yards.

28:55from Shotty, from Clayton Adams, the OC.

28:58There's just been uh this has just been a drum drum beat over the summer, but they just love this guy, man. And he's

29:03playing a lot of snaps just given how good his run run blocking is. Um and it's now developing more of like a pass

29:10game role. So, uh I do like just uh I don't know if you want to go one reception or or four receiving yards,

29:15which whichever one you prefer. Uh to me, it's basically the same thing, I guess.

29:19>> Yes.

29:20>> Um >> just slightly better odds for three and a half receiving yards. Let's Should we slide? Should we slide, dude? Nine and a

29:26half.

29:28>> I mean, sure. Like, I I I cannot advocate for it, but just givingven the coach speak on him, like, it makes me

29:35bullish that he's going to get more than than uh four receiving yards. So, >> I mean, he had two he had two for 14

29:42last week. He had one for 19 in week one. He is legitimately playing uh about a quart I mean about 33 like about about

29:50a third about a third of the offensive snaps and his snaps are trending up. And Jake Ferguson, all due respect, >> not very good.

29:59>> No, he's not very good.

30:00>> He's fine. He's just fine.

30:01>> Fumbles every 18 touches. Imagine that.

30:03Imagine if you're a running back and you fumble.

30:05>> That's actually That's actually a crazy stat. That is um that is insane. Uh, all right. So, I'm just gonna I'm just gonna

30:13if we're if we're really doing this, I'm taking uh Derrick Henry to score >> to score two TDs.

30:19>> Okay.

30:19>> I'm taking I'm taking Derrick Henry, not one, but two TUDs. 3.16X right there. I uh you know, I don't I don't uh

30:27participate I don't trade very much on the prediction markets, but the best uh the best price out there right now on

30:33Derrick Henry just to score a touchdown period is on KHI. It's like right about like minus 200. So, I just unloaded

30:41everything I had on my prediction market account on that for for an easy uh I guess not a double up, I guess a 50% up.

30:50>> I love [snorts] it. Um, let me see some Kiran reception props.

30:54>> Dude, he played so good last week.

30:56>> He was awesome.

30:57>> And the the offensive coordinator uh Nate uh Scallahassee or however you say his last name uh really came on yesterday and just like this dude has

31:06gotten so much better over the summer.

31:07he really prioritized his past past catch and chops uh and that the sap just has so much more trust in him this

31:14season compared to years years past. So uh I want to see yeah maybe I kind of like longest reception eight and a half.

31:24Um, that one's a little donkey, but I just want to play something to his receiving yards, whether it's receptions, receiving yards, or

31:30>> we'll just reception.

31:31>> We'll just do 14 and a half receiving yards cuz I actually know from your from your co-workers that uh Cody Mine

31:37referenced this, but the >> the like historically some of the biggest house edge losing money for is the rece just total receptions, not

31:48receiving yards, but just receptions for running backs. Those are some of the those are some of the best for the uh

31:53the sports books. So, we'll just take the the receiving yards.

31:57>> Yeah. And I keep on bringing up this coach speak. If you guys are not familiar with Mike Nuggets, it is the

32:01fastest by far the fastest coach speak player speak GM speak in the industry.

32:05You can get it for $9.99 a month or $99 for the year. Uh and we also have like a very good injury tracker that's uh

32:12pretty speedy. And then a bunch of player blurbs. If you don't want to uh look into all the quote feeds, you can

32:18just look up a player and see like more of a summarized version of a bunch of their quotes. But uh I don't want to

32:22read out every single quote because some of these are pretty long. I don't want you guys don't need need to hear me

32:27read, you know, a minute long quote about Brevin Ban 4. But uh yeah, check that out if you have not already. Uh we

32:33also tweet some of the some of the clips. So yeah, >> check that out.

32:37>> Part of my part of my information diet for sure as I'm going through all these.

32:41All right. Uh, so that was Kairen Williams receiving yards. I want to scroll through the games here and >> money lines and should we just go into

32:51the pile into the Jags?

32:53>> Oh yeah, we can pile into the Jags.

32:55>> Okay, let's toss in >> Let's toss in the Jags to win at 2.2x.

33:01That's a nice little one.

33:03>> I want to see what is available for Caleb Johnson in this game. I want to see if there's rushing attempts. So

33:10that's the rushing yards. I want to see rushing >> eight and a half. I mean, I know they're going to run in this game and I know

33:18that they are going to try and establish the Caleb Johnson, but I just don't think they're going to be able to do it

33:24against the Buccaneers.

33:25>> Yeah, I Michael Floyer was saying yesterday like, "Hey, we need to start establishing the run." But you and I both know that ain't [ __ ] happening

33:32this week. Uh maybe next week we can look into it.

33:34>> Maybe next week. Yeah, not this week.

33:36>> Um yeah, I was gonna have to veto that one. There's no way I was going to be comfortable with that. Uh if you want to

33:41take the neighbors under, I'd be fine doing that in this donkey parlay. Again, 54 yards for neighbors is just >> yes,

33:48>> is that does not feel good, but just I think there's couple different outs, whether that's just him not being fully

33:54healthy, which he said multiple times, and then Jim is being cooked uh with his arms. So yeah, just let's get a Kenneth

34:00Walker one every single week, man.

34:02>> It's just every week. I mean, the Kenneth Walker, he's very similar to Derrick Henry. dude just starts the game with a with a rushing touchdown. Uh,

34:09this is actually a good question. Uh, I I think Tferg is going to miss this week, but I think he's going to come

34:15back next week and >> start firing. I mean, it's like pretty clear he's a huge part of their game plan. The usage week one was weird, but

34:23the whole team everything was weird week one, you know, and >> the the injury dudes on Twitter keep saying that Puka has a sports hernia and

34:34that he has the he has the ability to reinjure it. So, I don't know anything about that, but if that's true, you're

34:40going to feel really dumb dropping T Ferg instead of Mai Lemon.

34:43>> I want to bring up a uh a little stat on uh Kenneth Walker. So, there's been some like ongoing coach speak about Emma

34:51Johnson, you know, working more in uh into the offense. But I just wanted to make some put some context into that.

34:57This is from my boy Mark Den bringing over at Establish the Chiefs backfield split through the first three games.

35:02When the Chiefs aren't leading by 10 points, Kenneth Walker has 58 carries, 17 targets. Emtt Johnson has eight carries, two targets. And then when the

35:10Chiefs are leading by 10 points, Kenneth Walker has seven carries, one target.

35:15Emma Johnson has eight carries, two targets. So in a divisional game that you may expect to be a little bit closer

35:21uh than a normal game would, uh you can probably just kind of mentally know like, okay, we might see a little bit

35:26more Kenneth Walker in this game. and in games where you know uh you think the Chiefs are just going to roll maybe you

35:32know not fade him in DFS but just keep that in mind when you're taking props and whatnot. So, um I do believe the

35:38spread is it's under a touchdown, right?

35:41>> It's only four and a half.

35:42>> Four and a half. Yeah. So, kind of >> projected to be a closer game. Again, the divisional games get really tough

35:46and gritty. So, uh I like I do like Kenneth Walker this week. I just wanted to give some context that if you've seen

35:52any EMTT Johnson coach speak on our on our terminal, uh always good to have some context behind it. So, >> yeah. Uh I want to do 19.15 fantasy

36:01points for Brock Pury. I actually think this game is going to low-key be a banger. I I think both of these teams

36:06are going to come out swinging haymakers. I think it's like a really like interesting Styles makes fight matchup between the Denver Broncos and

36:15the San Francisco 49ers. No Mike Evans very likely in this game, but I don't care. Pretty Perty is just him, dude.

36:22Pretty Perty. He's like insanely disrespected, but he's so good.

36:27>> He is. I don't know if it's the draft capital. I don't know what it is.

36:31>> It's for sure the draft capital, >> but this dude, I mean, he's second in odds in MVP. and now is going to play

36:36against this Broncos def defense. If he wins this game, I would probably say put him the favorite over Josh Allen. Um

36:43just given what uh per he's able to do without like just like vulturing like 10 touchdowns at the goal line. Um I mean

36:52he got a 40 yard touchdown last week, man. Run that guy called back from like some BS holding call. Like it this dude

36:58is playing out of his mind. He's executing the offense at like unprecedented levels. Matt or not Matt Ryan. Kell Shanahan asked was asked

37:05about like how he's seen Pertie's development and how he's been this year and he says like the last time uh I've

37:10been reminded of a quarterback like this was when I had Matt Ryan in 2016. Like this dude's playing unreal. I I like

37:16this game a lot uh for DFS for the BRs.

37:19Like there's a bunch of great scroll down options like Jaylen Waddles is a scroll down option this week. Um yeah, I

37:25just I'm just glazing party. But yeah, I agree. I love this.

37:29>> He deserves it. He deserves it. doesn't get enough >> if if Brock if we got all memory wiped about hey the draft capital is

37:36definitely part of it but if we all got memory wiped that Jimmy Garopolo also was top five in the NFL in EPA when

37:43Shanahan was the quarterback we would talk about Brock Purity the way people talk about Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow I I don't think not even close

37:50>> he wouldn't be in like the Josh Allen Mahomes Lamar conversation but honestly he's more accomplished than Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson if you if you really

37:58want to be a hundred about it I I mean this guy has the MVPs.

38:03>> Okay. Yes. MVP team level. Okay. How about this? How about this? How many people would honestly tell you Brock Perie is better

38:11than Justin Herbert? Very few people.

38:14>> Brock Pie is a lot more people than you expect. But that's just like an I don't know ball take. And obviously like uh

38:21Perie benefits a ton from having such a great offensive environment and having like one of the best play callers of all

38:26time. But like being able to execute it at the level he does is like this dude just gets more athletic every year. He's

38:32putting more zip on the ball this year than he has in years past. That's something he said that uh he said this

38:36past week. That's like one of his big offseason emphasis uh was to just like put some more zip on the ball. Um everything about this guy's

38:45game is just like incredible. 19 and 19.15 fantasy just like yeah just give me the over man. Like I don't need to keep glazing. Like this is

38:53welld deserved. He's my He's He's That's one of the one of the few things I've ever changed my mind about in my life

39:00was like when the Pery stuff first came around, I was like, "No, get this guy out of here. [laughter] We got to go. We

39:04We need Trey Lance." And then I was like, "You know what? That's really wrong. Uh we're we're not doing that."

39:09Uh all right, Dave, we need we need one more we need one more leg here, brother.

39:13>> Okay. Uh and also just want to note on the party stuff, like if you see any Brandon Cooks overs open up Sunday

39:19morning, that is something I will happily uh explore. But I I'll give you an option here. Do you want to go

39:25between Mai Lemon, Seion Baky, or uh Marvin Harrison?

39:31>> I want to see what Lemon has available.

39:33Um I really like higher than three and a half receptions for Lemon because he starts the game with one because they

39:40will do at least one screen to him that goes for negative three yards. So he really just needs to get three real

39:46receptions over the course of the game.

39:48I do think they're going to be trailing for most of this game. Uh, also I I I almost picked Rams and the points as my

39:55as my favorite pick against the spread.

39:58>> I was gonna advocate for the longest reception. Uh, he hit that last week and just like I'm not I'm just concerned

40:03about like the offensive environment in general >> uh for the Eagles. So like I'm not sure if volume is the way I want to approach

40:10it. Uh, again, we don't even have to take Mai Lemon. I'm just throwing names out. It's just like a guy that just

40:16continuously just gets more and more and more praise. Vaky here. I have never, again, I've only been like following this coach speak stuff for like a couple

40:24months now. Uh, I've never seen a player been as glazed as Vaky has between their GM, their OC, their head coach, the

40:32players.

40:33>> Do you know the Vaky backstory?

40:35>> I don't think I do. Will you inform me?

40:38>> So, he was a safety at Utah. They had they had they had three running back injuries and they were like, can anyone

40:45play running back? And he's like, I can do it. And then he scored five touchdowns on 50 touches his final season. Had played safety his whole

40:52life, gets drafted as a running back based off of literally like 70 touches in college. Not a UDFA, gets drafted and

41:01then makes the team and then now is the running back too. Taking David Montgomery's job, the team lets David Montgomery go and is just the running

41:09back two behind Jir Gibbs for an NFL team. He's he's got like less than a hundred recorded touches as a running

41:15back. It's it's a really insane story.

41:17>> Yeah, I want his rush and receiving yards. They're just they cannot stop talking about this dude's pass protection skills and how amazing he's

41:23been uh being able to spell Gibbs. Uh how good of a job he's done on like these underneath couches. Uh again,

41:30they're playing the Panthers. It's one of the highest scoring game or the highest totals on the slate. Uh the Panthers rush defense is definitely not

41:36good. We know he's going to get some carries uh to spell off Gibbs. Uh 17 and a half seems a little bit low to me. So,

41:43uh, do you want to add like what we >> I was going to say we need we need to do one more because we have to take the

41:48Jags money line out of it or else I can't do the flex.

41:51>> Okay. Um, we need one more.

41:53>> Do you just want to I I really like the Josh Downs call or if you want to do the two and longest rush. Uh, I honestly say

41:59we should [ __ ] have both of them both locks.

42:01>> Let's just do Let's just do downs again because downs downs is just like that's that's hitting.

42:06>> Um, there you go. 10 bucks to win uh a lot like 15 like 1500. Uh so we have Brevin Span forward nine and a half

42:15receiving yards. Derrick Henry two TDs Kairen Williams 14 and a half or more receiving yards. Malik Neighbors lower than 54 and a half receiving yards.

42:24Kenneth Walker to score a touchdown.

42:25Brock Pury higher 19.15 fantasy points.

42:28Sion Vaky higher than 17 and a half rushing plus receiving yards. And DS higher than 62 and a half receiving yards.

42:36>> Beautiful. I love it, man.

42:37>> It's beautiful. Um, all right, then we are going to head on over to Splash Sports here in one second, but need to

42:46remind all of you guys that this show is presented to you by Liveline IQ. It's exactly what it sounds like. It is a

42:54sports betting application that sends a notification to your phone when that basically there's basically when there's an ARB spot available in Live Lines.

43:03They had another one last weekend. I think they've only sent out like five alerts on NFL all year. All five of them

43:09have hit. They're not going to be there just are not going to be that many live spots in NFL game where the market is

43:14really off. They they've had more available for college football and MLB, but the one last week was a live spot in

43:24Commander Seahawks, which did indeed hit >> because uh I mean partially because the Commander defense is so bad. Uh but also

43:32shout out to my boy Jarian Price. And by shout out to my boy Jarian Price, I mean no [ __ ] shout out to my boy Jaren

43:40Price. Oh dude, he's killing me. He's killing me, Dave. It's really, really bad.

43:45>> They had some like reassurance this week saying like we're going to go back to him and like we we trust him, but it's

43:49so over, bro. Like Sharp is practicing.

43:52He hasn't separated for [ __ ] It's just it's over.

43:55>> Yeah. Yeah. It's uh Sharp Sharp like legitimately a a limited practice this week. It's never been. People are saying it's never been more over and and those

44:04people are right. Uh which is a bummer because I drafted a bunch of Darren Price. It's going to need an injury now.

44:11Um which is a bummer. All right. So, we're now going to do Survivor. However, before we Dave and I obviously uh our 10

44:19entries in the the big splash pool, we cooked them all in week two. So, I I have two entries left in the 1K. Um I

44:26think you have two entries left as well.

44:28We're going to talk about those in a second. But the first thing we got to do is we're gonna talk about the touchdown

44:33survivor which is about to fill. Um so if you guys want in the new touchdown survivor that we're running over on

44:39Splash, I would go and do it right now.

44:41But uh Dave, we got to make two picks in the touchdown survivor this week. Um then after this week, it goes down to

44:49one pick. I I think I'm legitimately taking Derrick Henry on on everyone.

44:54>> Yeah, revenge game. I mean, they're to be up the entire game. So, uh, it feels so predatory having Jake Ferguson up

45:01here. Like, what the [ __ ] man?

45:03>> Well, it's just it's it's >> I know it's the highest I know it's the most touchdown >> by most touchdowns. So funny.

45:08>> Just just so predatory, man. He's so ass. Um, >> yeah, obviously the big dog seems like a borderline lock. I'd probably fade out

45:17on this. Um, wait for a different matchup. Uh, my first thought when looking into this was Chuba. uh they came out uh two days ago and saying like

45:28their run pass balance in the end zone has been like way too heavy skewed towards the pass this season and they

45:34want to you know ETR a little bit more in the end zone. Uh obviously no Jonathan Brooks this week. He's a

45:40workhorse uh for the Panthers and the highest total game of the week or one of the highest total games of the week. So

45:46uh I was going to advocate for Chuba.

45:48Um, obviously there's a lot more likely options to score this week, but I wanted to hear your thoughts on him. Um,

45:56>> I don't I don't I don't hate Chuba. Um, I will say based on on my experience of doing this >> Mhm.

46:03>> this is it teams die even faster than a regular survivor.

46:07>> Okay. So, you might not even need to be that aggressive. You you don't you now week three good good time to start doing

46:14that because so like I'm trying to think of like the right way to explain this.

46:18So like the concept of like the Chargers losing to the Raiders is like that just happens all the time. Like Jir Gibbs

46:25just like won't score a touchdown in like three games this year. You know, that's just the way it'll go. And those

46:31weeks like I I believe in the OG touchdown survivor. I I think 85% of the field is already gone in week three.

46:39>> Okay.

46:40>> Like it like the teams just get that you just get dusted off super fast. So I'm gonna do Henry and I'm going to do you

46:47know what since since I'm with my boy Dave right here. I'm gonna take I'm gonna take I'm gonna take Javvante.

46:52>> I do think uh I do think he's a pretty good bet for a touchdown this week. And Zach was saying like hey like once we

46:57get to the end zone like we like last this this is particular to like last week against the Ravens. like, hey, we

47:03was like running the ball well and then like when we got to the end zone, we just like forgot to run the ball and we

47:07need to do more of that in the future.

47:08So, a little bit of a squeaky uh wheel narrative uh for Javante. Uh the total's surprisingly like high. It's like 48 and

47:15a half, 47 and a half. So, um I really like that game for the BR Streets. Uh like tagging on CJ Straz. Uh just to get

47:24off on a tangent, but yeah, if you're if you're doing any of those drafts this week, >> let's do and then let's just do one that

47:30is just as easy as it gets. Let's just do Henry Walker and then Josh Allen as the uh as the alt there worth worth

47:37noting uh passing touchdowns obviously do not count. But I I just think >> I have I mean just now with all these

47:44entries I my my largest wager this week will be on Derrick Henry scoring a touchdown. So if Derrick Henry rolls his

47:50ankle uh in in the first quarter, I mean you're gonna you're going to find me down uh lots of US dollars this week.

47:57Dave, >> a nice uh a nice use Kia on the big dog to score against his former team. Uh I saw some ridiculous stat. I don't know

48:04who it was from, but it's like Derrick Henry splits against the AFC South versus not the AFC South and it's just

48:10like 2x his production everywhere else.

48:11And obviously that has to do with him playing in the AFC South for so long and the teams were just so so so bad when he

48:17was in there. But I like this narrative, man. Like it it kind of reminds me of like the IQ bell curve meme where it's

48:23like just sped the Eric Henry score and then you got the middle guy just giving you a bunch of reasons why not to and

48:28then yeah just Derk Henry just it's a lock.

48:31>> It is it is a lock. Um, trying to think anyone else like Walker, Henry, Gibbs, McCaffrey. I I would say if you are in

48:40the touchdown survivor this week, I wouldn't get any fancier than like my pool of guys would be like Henry Cook, McAffrey, Walker, probably about the

48:49fanciest I would get would be Aaron Jones. That's it's probably about as fancy as I would get. I wouldn't do I

48:56DeAndre Swift I think you could do but I wouldn't even do like Brilan Allen who has like a pretty good um projection or

49:04whatever but like even that is like a little fancy.

49:06>> Can I still sign up for this? Is this open?

49:08>> Yes. I mean I think there's literally Yeah, there's like there's like a hundred spots left.

49:13>> I'm gonna put my money where my mouth is in uh >> here. I will uh I will share the contest. I will put this the link to

49:21this is in the chat and then I will put this in or I'll just text this link to you.

49:29>> Lovely.

49:29>> There you go. All right. So, it's in the chat if you guys want to sign up. Um and then frankly this one I I'd love to say

49:36that this that we're going to last this will probably be done by like week nine.

49:40So, we will probably run we will probably run another one of these.

49:44>> Um like we did we did an EPL Survivor and it literally finished in the fourth week.

49:49for for goals or just just picks >> just just picks. But you're if a draw a draw was no good, so they had to win.

49:56>> Okay. Okay.

49:56>> They had to win. Um but yeah, like I I just I I'm very much enjoying the uh the Survivor content. Speaking of which, we

50:03got to make uh our our Survivor picks this week. All of our entries dusted off, but we still have some to talk

50:10about. I will say for me this week, I >> it's pretty easy to me. This is like one of the more straightforward weeks we've

50:18had on the season.

50:18>> It's It's super straightforward except you have to decide, can you trust the Vikings or do you just hold hands with everyone else and take

50:28the Baltimore Ravens?

50:30>> You know, I only have two entries left.

50:32Like, we've done great on takeups on this show. We've done great on on BR.

50:36You know, Survivor, we have not done so hot. So, like take all this with a grain of salt. Um, >> but given that I only have two entries

50:42left, I want to play it relatively >> safe. Uh, if I'm not choosing the Vikings or the Ravens, I think I would

50:50scroll down uh to Seattle, who I mean, their best next matchups is week nine against Arizona, but that's a that's a

50:57divisional game. Those gets a little dicey here and there. Uh, week 10 against Vegas, and then probably the one you really want to save it for is like

51:04week 14 against the Giants. So, um, yeah, between those three is probably what I'm going to narrow my pull to. Um,

51:12and then if not, uh, maybe Packers against the Bucks. It doesn't feel good.

51:18But, um, yeah, those are my four four main options for this week, but I'm honestly probably just going to go one

51:25of Ravens or Minnesota. though.

51:28>> Honestly, I am I am not going to play Minnesota once uh in in this week because I think it is

51:38>> a marginal enough spot with the Vikings.

51:41I look I I just bet on the Vikings minus 10 and a half points. Obviously, I think that I think they're just going to

51:46absolutely steamroll here, but it's one of the few spots I would actually consider this the same people who are watching our show saying, "I can't

51:54believe these absolutely jabronies are taking the Chargers. Don't they no ball?

51:57Can't they watch the games?" I would honestly consider it to be a spot like that where if you told me >> the Vikings just have a total off the

52:05rails like can't do they can't do anything on offense, Kyler's getting sacked, Aaron Jones has a bad fumble.

52:13I'd be like, "Yeah, you know what? Makes sense, man. Makes sense that the Minnesota Vikings just it's all a mess.

52:20Like ownership is fighting with the coach and like all this stuff." I'd be like, "Yeah, you know what? Makes sense." If you told me the Ravens lost

52:28to the Titans, I would I would not believe you even if you were from the future. I'd be like, "No, no chance,

52:33dude. No way they lose. No way they lose. I don't see a single p Lamar would have to get injured in game. I think

52:41>> that's it. Yeah.

52:44>> Um I agree with you. The floor on the Vikings is obviously so much lower, but you know, devil's advocate. Uh actually,

52:51I don't before. Do you think the the Dolphins or the Titans are better?

52:56>> I think the Titans have more NFL talent on the team 1 through 53. But I think Malik Willis is better than Cam Ward.

53:06>> God, man. He's he's like one of like the least landed first overall picks I've seen in my life. Um yeah,

53:13>> I saw I saw a really good tweet about Cam Ward that like he's he's a good old-fashioned bust. Like the type of bus

53:20you don't even remember. Like when he's out of the league in five years, we won't even be like remember when the

53:25Titans had like remember Jake Locker? I bet you I bet you don't because he just was so forgettable. Like that's going to

53:32be the Cam Ward style bus.

53:33>> The Titans are picking a quarterback this year. Uh so yeah, anyways, uh to my point, yeah, the floor in the Vikings is

53:40so much lower and uh for my safety and just so I can have a sweat on the ongoing weeks, I'm probably just going

53:46Baltimore. Uh I will note they're like the best like the most optimal matchups they have coming up. Uh you know, they

53:53have next week against Atlanta, week six against Cleveland, week 11 against Carolina. So they do have a lot of good spots in the future weeks. Uh, but there

54:01are also some other teams you're going to pivot to on on those weeks. So, >> if I was going to take uh if I was going

54:09to take a um random like if I was going to get fancy with a low on team, it would be the uh

54:17it would be the Colts this week. That would be that would be my fancy play. No one's taking them, right? They're

54:22they're in London. It's 8:30. It's uh like I I would say 1% is probably even high in terms of their projected

54:31ownership. Um I don't think they have a ton of like future utility. They play in um like a a I guess they do get to play

54:39the Titans uh a couple times. So So those are uh good spots for them. But the Colts are like a pretty marginal

54:46team, like probably a nine- win team.

54:49They they're not going to be favored by a ton against anyone. But this is a chance to fade Mariota fa Dan Quinn an

54:56alltime donkey but by the way like an all time like he does not maximize uh win shares really at all.

55:04>> And the commanders are coming off a huge win where they just stole everyone's money against the Seahawks last week. So

55:10that's going to be playing into people's memories as well. But yeah, Colts Colts I think would be my fancy play >> this. I like your Seahawks angle,

55:18though.

55:19>> Yeah, I will note that the Colts do have a nice week 10 matchup. They get Miami at home, uh, seven-point favorites. Um,

55:26but there's also plenty of good options in week 10. You have the Rams that are 11 point favorites. You have the Bills

55:31that are seven point favorites against the Jets, Chiefs, five points against against the Falcons. So, uh, if you do decide to use the Colts, uh, I would

55:39imagine they're pretty chalky week 10.

55:41Uh, you do have some other options.

55:43Yeah, I mean honestly I would say my review of taking Survivor pretty seriously this year and getting kicked in the teeth in week two and and frankly

55:54just Survivor content as a whole like becoming its own thing.

55:58>> Mhm. My biggest biggest takeaway is that unique paths and fading the chalk and X

56:08Y and Z early in the season you are kind of just [ __ ] yourself and I think we've already seen it with the

56:15quarterback injuries. I think the quarterback injuries are the big understated thing with all of this, which is, hey man, guess what? If Joe

56:23Burrow gets gets hurt, all of your Bengals future value. Jar Jared Goff gets hurt, your Lions future value is is

56:32new. Jordan Love gets hurt. And and we also know, I mean, 64 quarterbacks started a game last year. Like, quarterback injuries happen way more

56:41often than you would think. And they're not always season ending, but like what happens if Okay, I'm saving the Bears.

56:47The Bears get I don't know. The Bears play the Dolphins. I don't even know if they do, but just imagine. But oh well,

56:52they're starting Case Keenum and they're actually only favored by two and a half at Miami. And it's like, okay, well, am

56:57I taking the Case Keenum Bears favored by two and a half at Miami? My whole season was planned around that. So that

57:02is I think one of just the interesting things like and obviously part of that is a little bit hindsight because we got

57:08burnt when we could have just taken the 49ers. Um, but I I do >> you live and you learn. [snorts] >> I do think the uh the the LOL way they

57:17lose bros. I I would say right now >> I would say those bros are winning right now.

57:22>> I would say they're winning right now.

57:23>> There's some of that that you have to, you know, kind of play for in Survivor.

57:26It's just like again it's like the IQ bell curve beam. Um a little side note, I will I just saw this pop up on the

57:33Mike Nuggets injury feed. Uh Keenan Allen uh has a groin issue is questionable for Sunday. a little bit more equity on that Josh Downs over uh

57:40that we took earlier.

57:41>> There you go. That's beautiful. Um All right, man. Do you have any do you have any final thoughts on uh on Survivor?

57:48>> No, I think uh like I said earlier, it was a little a little bit more straightforward week uh than weeks past.

57:53Uh thankfully, we don't have to gallrain ourselves into into the Chargers. So, >> all right. Well, let's finish it with this right here. I legend himself. Let's

58:02rip a BR and then we will uh we will we will ship our way out of here. We are drafting fourth. I've literally only

58:08drafted three of these.

58:11>> Okay. Can you just scroll down to the board? I want to see how much the ADP has changed since um since I stopped on

58:16Wednesday.

58:17>> Yes.

58:18>> Yes, I can. Uh looks like the turn is Allan Bowers. I would have I would have Oh, yeah. I mean, a lot of Puka this

58:25week. I would have like no Josh Allen at this price. Honestly, I I'll probably have legit zero.

58:32>> Um >> scroll running backs. I mean, two really good Javvante looks really good. Brilan Allen looks phenomenal.

58:40>> Bucky, man. 35. That's That's my might be my Michael Wilson play for for this week. We'll see. Um, wow. Okay, so like

58:47when I was doing this contest earlier in the week, we had I was getting Puka in the 20s, Chase Brown in the late 20s.

58:54Um, this ADP has shifted quite a bit.

58:56Uh, obviously Puka with the injury news, but I'm shocked to see Chase Brown has gone up like, you know, a whole round. I

59:02imagine that's the the fault of my of my colleagues, but >> yeah, that's that's all >> that's definitely us.

59:09>> Run.com. Yeah.

59:10>> Um but yeah, to me this week's a little bit more fun than last week. I felt last week if I didn't get one of Gibbs,

59:16Henry, Walker, or CMC. I was kind of like drawing dead. So, I felt um obviously Jason almost ended up getting there at the end. Uh but the tier of

59:24running backs last week felt so strong.

59:26This week, uh you got a lot more options in round one to to me. So, um, we'll see what what Be More Ravens does. I imagine

59:34he goes TSN.

59:36>> Yeah, figured.

59:38>> I will say we'll take CMC if uh he's there at five. I really just like we both love the game.

59:44>> Come on, dude. Got to do Henry over CMC.

59:46>> Okay. Okay. I was I was just assuming that Henry would go would go three.

59:50Okay. That's that's an easy nice little fall for us with one pick of of ADP value. Um, yeah. I mean, I was just I

59:57was saying that assuming that Henry was like a lock to go three. Thank you.

60:00Thank you.

60:00>> What do you What do you think about uh what do you think about Bowers with the the seven overall ADP? That to me

60:06doesn't feel great actually.

60:08>> Um I just like the scroll down options at running back and wide receiver this week. So just like from a structure

60:14standpoint, I like going one of the elite tight ends. Uh whether that's Bowowers, McBride or KD. Like last week I had like about 70% of my exposure on

60:23on KD or McBride. It will probably be something very similar this week just because I don't love the scroll down options at tight end and I really like

60:31the the options at uh uh at flex. So uh I'm good with either Puka or or McBride here. Whatever you like.

60:40>> I like Puka because I bet that his ADP like if uh McVey comes out today and says, "Oh, dude, he's good to go." I

60:47mean, he looks dude we just had we just had a push-up contest, man. Like puka he's good to go. Like I I I think he's

60:53gonna end up higher. I actually don't hate the scrolls at tight end. I don't hate Brentton Strange.

60:58>> I like Schult I like Schultz and Strange a lot just given like the game environments. I like Conor Henry, but uh

61:03I just like the especially like the matchups like I like at least the Giants for McBride being a favorite and then I

61:10know Bowers is you know I I believe in Spags being able to like scheme him up and and whatnot, but I mean he's just

61:17like straight up a wide receiver one out there. So I don't ever want to fade him like based off of a matchup concern. Um,

61:23again, probably half my portfolio will have like one of these elite tight ends and the other half I will have like guys

61:27like Schultz and Strange and Hunter Henry and guys like that at at the end.

61:31So, um, James Cook following quite a bit. That's that's a nice GMG.

61:35>> A true a true 2enter Tyler Higgby.

61:40>> That's a good one as well. Yeah, like I I I'm going to be on on Peter's show on Overset Show here in a little bit

61:46talking about the BR slate. Uh, I might have to tout a little bit of of Higgby there in the last round. I I really

61:52don't mind it. Um, we got your boy Jeremiah Love there. We got uh Chase Brown.

61:58>> Honestly, I would take I would take Pwash here.

62:01>> Yeah, let's go PE Wash. Like again, the Jacks have not been pushed in like in a serious manner at all this season. If

62:06there's a scenario where they have to drop back like I don't know 40 times, it's going to be quite the fantasy game

62:13for Pwash. Uh I imagine DJ Turner is going to be following BTJ whenever he's on the field and won't be on the uh

62:19moving into the slot much. So yeah, uh PE Wash is a smash this week. I I obviously like him a ton.

62:26>> Pwash has the the usage of like a like a wide receiver one like his like his like a dot uh target share all that stuff is

62:35like it's like the same as like Justin Jefferson, you know? I mean it's actually it's actually kind of wild. Um, how do you feel about like would you do

62:45Lawrence or Stafford here or would we be doing a naked quarterback?

62:49>> Yeah, we can we can pull Let's grab Tilaw. I think he's like one of like the first or second projected uh QB on the

62:55slate this week.

62:57You want to take my boy Love?

62:59>> Yeah, I just give him the fallen value.

63:01Let's take glove and then we can kind of pencil in uh TA on the back end and if you want to get like really cute and do

63:06like you know TA throws for four touchdowns and two of them go to Strange and two of them go to Washington we can

63:11stack that up. Uh Gaseki we can get in there late if you want to scroll down at tight end. We don't have to you know

63:16force the game environment stuff but just throwing out options.

63:21>> Yeah. Yeah 100%. Um I mean dude I think maybe I don't even have to draft that many. Maybe I don't even have to max if

63:27like we just draft the shipper first time. I mean, Eric Henry, Puka, Nakuo, Pwash, Jeremiah. Those are like all my favorite plays. Just knocking them out.

63:34One, two, three.

63:35>> I will say I have a team with CMC, Henry, and Puka. Uh, so that's that's pretty naughty. I'm excited to see how

63:43that one does come. Uh, >> that's the uh that's the, you know, you do give up some equity drafting on Monday and Tuesday because you just

63:49don't know about some of that stuff, but you are also able to get um some CLV on on these things. And again, the CLV the

63:56CLV doesn't really matter for the six-man contest. Like it's so anyways, but in the scenario where like both CMC and Henry, which already is like a GMGM

64:06are like battling each other for RB1 and then Puka just drops like a nuke. Uh it I would imagine it's pretty hard to get

64:11all three of those now. Uh given the environment. So, um, >> yeah, I I think this next pick we can go

64:18T- law and then we can do our scroll down option uh at tight end, whether that's Schultz or Higgby or or Strange.

64:25Again, we're constructing like a well-correlated, well projectioned team in the first couple rounds and then this last round, uh, we're just going to

64:32scroll down a bit. So, obviously, you don't want to give up like eight points in projection when you're scrolling down, but you know, the trade-off

64:38between like Travis Kelce and Schultz might only be like one, two, three points. I think it's it's I think it's literally like a point and a half. Yeah.

64:44>> Yeah. So, it's really not that big of a deal. So, again, I know like you uh if you're not usually in the BR streets,

64:50you kind of just want to be anchored to ADP. We've been taught all over the summers like respect the market and

64:54whatnot, but in these specific contests, you're more more than okay just scrolling down and ignoring the projections. Um just don't get too

65:02crazy. So, uh yeah, Schultz, Higgby, or Strange will be my option. Whatever you prefer. Uh, I probably just lean shorts because you really have to hit like a

65:11like a 99 percentile outcome to get like the double stack to get there. You would probably need two touchdowns from Strange and and Parker Washington, which

65:19can definitely happen this week.

65:20>> Um, but yeah, Schultz or Strange are my options here.

65:25>> Yeah, you know what? Let's do it. We're going to take Daltton Schultz. First team drafted. Trevor Lawrence, Derk Henry, Jeremiah Love, Puka Nakua, Parker

65:33Washington, Daltton Schultz. Uh, great Friday show here with my goat Dave. Got a bunch of picks. Props. Survivor fired.

65:42Everyone, head on over to mikeenuggets.com if you want to be directionally accurate with some of your takes this weekend.

65:50Uh, like the video, subscribe to the channel, and we'll be back with you tomorrow.

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