Davis Mattek artwork

Week 1 Gillcast (NFL DFS Recap)

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

42 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 14, 2026
Published
Mon, September 14, 2026
23
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Amon-Ra St. BrownAshton JeantyBijan RobinsonBreece HallBrock BowersColston LovelandDe'Von AchaneDerrick HenryDeshaun WatsonDrew LockEmeka EgbukaJ.K. DobbinsJa'Marr ChaseJahmyr Gibbs
Player analysis

Player insights

23

Amon-Ra St. Brown

NegativeUsage2:15

Amon-Ra St. Brown was a core DFS stacking partner for Jared Goff and a frequent selection in high-ownership builds. Mattek noted he is a benchmark for high-tier ownership, typically commanding around 20% of the field, though Mattek occasionally pivoted away from him to accommodate three-running-back roster constructions.

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Ashton Jeanty

PositiveValue8:07

Ashton Jeanty was highly touted as a $6,600 DFS value, with Davis Mattek calling him the 'running back of our generation' and noting that playing him was like getting Bijan Robinson for $1,000 less. Mattek describes him as a 'beast' and prioritized him in all tournament lineups, expressing regret for not having him in more spots.

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Bijan Robinson

PositiveUsage7:05

Bijan Robinson is a high-volume workhorse who commanded 21 rushes and 10 targets in Week 1; Davis Mattek highlights him as a high-value DFS play that was under-rostered, noting he offered the second-highest expected production at a discount. He remains a must-start despite quarterback concerns because he consistently ranks near the top of the league in expected production.

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Breece Hall

PositiveUsage29:29

Breece Hall is a high-upside DFS play who contributes significantly in the passing game. Davis Mattek highlights that Hall has 'all the juice' and remains a strong target despite some public sentiment fading Jets players.

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Brock Bowers

NegativeInjury40:17

Brock Bowers is currently dealing with an injury, which negatively impacts his current fantasy outlook.

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Colston Loveland

NegativeBust40:08

Colson Loveland's Week 1 performance was a 'legitimate zero' with only two targets and zero receptions, despite high route participation. Davis Mattek notes that the hype surrounding him over Trey McBride appears to be a significant overreaction.

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De'Von Achane

PositiveValue7:05

De'Von Achane is recommended as a superior DFS roster option over lower-upside running backs like Hampton, as noted by Davis Mattek, who emphasizes choosing high-upside players over those with shakiest workloads.

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Derrick Henry

NegativeValue6:45

Derrick Henry was considered a reasonable alternative to playing Amon-Ra St. Brown in a three-running-back DFS lineup construction, alongside other options like Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor.

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Deshaun Watson

NegativeBust20:37

Deshaun Watson is playing at an egregious level, making him a primary target to fade or play against in DFS lineups for the foreseeable future, according to Davis Mattek.

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Drew Lock

NegativeValue6:00

Drew Lock is cited as an example of a low-cost quarterback ($5,500) who can be used in DFS lineup construction to provide a floor, emphasizing that the strategy focuses on price and role rather than talent evaluation.

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Emeka Egbuka

NegativeUsage47:33

Emeka Egbuka was utilized as a 'bring back' option in a specific tournament lineup.

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J.K. Dobbins

PositiveBreakout5:33

J.K. Dobbins impressed Mattek with his physical running style, drawing comparisons to Derrick Henry. Despite the Chargers' overall struggles, Dobbins showed significant upside with his size and power, leading Mattek to note his potential for high-volume production.

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Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeBust18:44

Ja'Marr Chase was a major DFS disappointment in Week 1, scoring only 3.2 points on two receptions for 12 yards despite being 60% owned. Davis Mattek expresses frustration with his usage, noting he had only four targets on 35 attempts and was frequently 'swallowed up' by the defense, though Mattek hopes this is just a one-week blip.

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Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveUsage2:15

Jahmyr Gibbs was considered a 'lock' at running back for DFS and a core piece of Lions stacks. Mattek noted that while Gibbs' rushing touchdowns can cannibalize the quarterback's ceiling, he is a high-upside play who sims out better post-lock despite high pre-lock ownership projections.

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Jonathan Taylor

PositiveValue7:10

Jonathan Taylor is recommended as a superior DFS roster option over lower-upside running backs like Hampton; Davis Mattek identifies him as a key pivot player in DFS lineup construction, often swapped in for Bijan Robinson in alternative builds.

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Justin Herbert

NegativeValue1:47

Justin Herbert was a top DFS 'want play' appearing in blended optimal lineups across multiple models (Run the Sims, ETR, Cardi, Saber); Mattek preferred him over Jared Goff but avoided him due to salary constraints. Conversely, Mattek expressed frustration with Herbert's career trajectory, citing his age (28) and lack of playoff success.

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Kyler Murray

NegativeInjury1:47

Kyler Murray was a viable DFS cash option at $5,500 due to his rushing floor, which Mattek argued made him usable regardless of passing efficiency. However, Mattek expressed skepticism regarding his size, processing, and durability, and ultimately blamed his poor DFS performance on Murray getting injured during the game.

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Ladd McConkey

NegativeUsage5:12

Following the Chargers' poor performance, Mattek expressed a desire to fade the entire team, noting he is likely done playing Chargers players, including Ladd McConkey, for the remainder of the season.

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Mark Andrews

NegativeValue34:13

Mark Andrews had a disappointing Week 1 with a very low projection of six points, but Davis Mattek suggests he remains a viable low-ownership pivot option for those looking to differentiate from chalky DFS builds.

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MarShawn Lloyd

PositiveBust37:05

MarShawn Lloyd was a disappointing DFS play due to the Packers' poor offensive line and a lack of goal-line or downhill running opportunities, despite being a low-ownership target.

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Michael Mayer

PositiveUsage15:41

Michael Mayer was a mandatory 'free piece' for DFS cash games in Week 1, and failing to roster him was considered a significant mistake. He saw significant ownership (78%) and is a target for future DFS lineups after running the second-most routes (23) on the Raiders in Week 1. Davis Mattek notes he has better targets per route run when Brock Bowers is off the field.

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Terrance Ferguson

NegativeUsage40:01

Terrence Ferguson failed to earn routes in Week 1, but Davis Mattek remains optimistic that he can still produce, particularly in best ball formats, noting that the entire team struggled.

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Tre Tucker

NegativeBust13:46

Trey Tucker is not a reliable DFS play; Davis Mattek notes he is not a 'gotta play him' guy and requires specific deep-shot opportunities that were unlikely in the Raiders' game script. Tucker was a poor Week 1 roster decision with 15% ownership, which Mattek deemed too high, suggesting better alternatives were available in high-scoring environments.

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Full transcript

Episode Transcript

444
0:00Boys, we are back. The Los Angeles Chargers couldn't do [ __ ] against the Arizona Cardinals. We Well, we didn't lose at all. We could have done better.
0:10We could have done worse. I actually thought cash games I don't know how many times this year cash games are going to
0:15be legitimately interesting. There were a bunch of different decisions to make at basically like I thought there were what probably like five playable running
0:22backs, maybe six. I thought there were three playable quarterbacks. One of them suffered maybe a season ending injury on the very first uh possession. There were
0:32like a couple different def like highric defenses. That was uh the Nate thing.
0:36And when when we turn the cards over and we show you guys what happened to Nate for for once, I actually think Nate, the
0:43chat's going to be with you. I I think they're going to feel for you because I I gotta say, Nate, you played good and
0:48you ran bad. I'll hand it to you for the first time ever. You played good and you ran bad.
0:54Yeah, it was it was a frustrating outcome. I don't want to spoil it, but yeah, it was frustrating.
0:59>> So, I guess let's just go ahead and start by talking about the quarterback position. I think there were basically three playable quarterbacks. I think
1:07there was Justin Herbert. I think there was Jared Goff. And I think there was Kyler Murray. Kyler obviously in the lineup combinations when you needed the
1:16salary. I think Herbert was like I would say he was the want play and he was the one that was in blended optimal. So if
1:24you blended Run the Sims, ETR, Cardi, and Saber. Uh you would have gotten Herbert. Where I landed ultimately was with Jared Goff because I was like if
1:35I'm playing Gibbs and I'm playing St.
1:37Brown, don't don't I just want Goff? And the projections I mean the projections are razor razor close. Like Ron the Sims
1:44has Kyler for 19. Uh we were actually more bearish on Goff at 16.3 and then Herbert for 19.7.
1:52So that was mostly a correlated play to me. Um Nathaniel, how were you thinking about the quarterback position?
2:00>> I mean I definitely looked at Goff and Herbert, but I thought that Murray at his price uh with his running upside I I
2:10don't know. I thought Murray was the play here. I I just from a price standpoint, I think I get it from a golf
2:15standpoint, but golf has to have such insane efficiency to get there. And in this spot, he projected to, but it's like if Gibbs gets two rushing TDs,
2:25you're dead.
2:25>> You I was going to say what you what you literally need is you need one of Gibbs' touchdowns to come via reception or you
2:33get what you got today, which is the Lions offense is pretty good. They got I mean that they had to have had like 450
2:40yards overall on offense. Actually Goff didn't even threaten the bonus. So maybe maybe not. I mean he got frankly golf lineups got very lucky to get overtime.
2:49Like actually insanely lucky to get overtime because the Saints look like one of the worst teams um in the NFL. I
2:55mean frankly Sammy I wanted to play Herbert. Her Herbert was my want play.
3:00My lineup ran out of salary. I I would have preferred to have played Herbert.
3:03Now, after watching the Los Angeles Chargers ply their trade on the football field, I think I'm cured of wanting to play Chargers for the rest of the year,
3:12I I actually think I'm good. I think maybe I'll play Lad every once in a while, but I think mostly I'm good on
3:17the Chargers.
3:18>> Well, first off, Lad died. Secondly, >> he did die. Yes, that's true.
3:22>> Yeah, the I mean, buddy, the Chargers are an egregious mess. It's like, oh, we got Mike McDaniel. Like, everything's going to be different. It's going to be
3:30good. Dude, they are ass. They're hot ass. And the fact that we played Omar and Hampton who at the beginning of the
3:36game I was just like dude >> dude he he scored that touchdown I was like dude he's getting 35. Yeah.
3:42>> Yeah dude he's so much he's so big and just like runs full. So he looks like Derrick Henry out there and you're just
3:48like holy [ __ ] Like I'm going to smash.
3:50But um >> 10 point home favorites. They lost by more than a touchdown.
3:56>> Yeah. And and and we were talking about this before we started up here. It's not like something bad happened. There was a
4:03fumble that went the wrong way or pick.
4:05Dude, they just got their asses whooped.
4:07Their lily asses kicked up and down the field. And uh yeah, we're we're stupid for putting any American dollars like on
4:14their victory today. This tough scene at Survivor.
4:17>> So, it's very tough scene. So, running.
4:19>> I will I will say this. No, hold on.
4:21Hold on. I never considered Kyler Murray.
4:24>> Never. I did. I I did.
4:26>> No, I I didn't. And you know, it it seems like you can't really know what was going to happen because it's super
4:32revisionist, right? Because he just got hurt right away. But Kyler, I know he projects well. I know he's got rushing upside. Like we know this about Kyler
4:40Murray, but like dude, he he might just be too small and little to be able to hack it.
4:46>> And once >> No, I I'm I'm overruling. I'm over I'm overruling.
4:51>> And once it's KC, it's Justin Jefferson.
4:53There's so many reasons why he was going to get up. He was gonna put points up here.
4:57>> I I get it, dude. I get it. But like at the end of the day, you know, this is cash games. We're going for floor and
5:03Kyler Murray has like a pretty bad floor. And you know, it's one of those things where Kyler Murray, you know, he's like 5 foot 10. He got drafted
5:11number one overall because he's like this god tier athlete, but what happens to these guys who aren't really like that good at football and processing and
5:20this and that, but they're just super athletic? what happens when they're 28 years old or 29 or whatever he is and
5:26start mounting injuries and they lose that half step that makes them so different. Um, I think bad things and uh Kyler Murray hasn't been very good for
5:38>> I'm going to hard disagree with this take. I >> It's not just because I played Kyler that I disagree with this, but I just
5:43think at $5,500 on draftkings.com at quarterback for a guy who's going to have rushing work like you don't need much passing efficiency. So you he
5:53doesn't need to be a good quarterback.
5:54He doesn't need to be a real NFL quarterback for you to get points on DraftKings. And the way the rest of the
5:58lineup construction went down to him made total sense. Tyler Shook, I'll play anybody at 5500. I'll play Drew Lock.
6:05>> We should have played Tyler Sh.
6:06>> We should have >> I will play Drew Lock at 5500 next week and it will be the right lineup construction on DraftKings for floor at
6:12a quarterback. I'm not I'm not trying to evaluate their talent or their ability.
6:16I don't want Kyler Murray as my franchise quarterback, but on DraftKings, like this is how you play.
6:21And I'm I'm I think Kyler was the play at 55.
6:24>> Yeah. I'm I I ultimately didn't play Kyler because I just felt that with Gibbs and St. Brown in the lineup, like
6:33once I decided I was doing the St. Brown lineup and not doing the three running back lineup, which was viable, by the
6:39way, if you did the two punt wide receiver, three expensive running back lineup, I don't think you played bad at all. I think that was a totally
6:45reasonable decision to play uh Bejon or Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor or whoever over um over St. Brown. I I think I think that's and frankly we
6:56haven't even got to >> let's get >> the real we No, we'll get to the real issue. We will get to the real issue in
7:02in all of our lineups, but at running back Gibbs was a lock. Then I think you had to choose one of Bejon, Achan,
7:10Jonathan Taylor, Amarian Hampton, Ashen Genty. Those were the playable running backs to me. It sounds like I I didn't check, but I believe the ETR train
7:20included uh I I think Levitan did Jonathan Taylor. So, shout out to uh I Hey, good good play. I have no issue
7:29with it. Ultimately, I did Jir Gibbs with Amari and Hampton and then I did the double I did the double tight end
7:38lineup. But, I mean, Sammy, we were talking up and down about swapping. I mean, if we would have just clean swapped Hampton to Genty, we would have
7:45been home free. And I feel really stupid because Genty, I I bet his overs. I bet him I bet his receiving
7:52overs. I bet his touchdowns. I was like, "This is the Genty spot. This is like the only game the Raiders are going to
7:57be favored in all year. I took Raiders.
7:59We took Raiders three times in the $100 Survivor on Splash. I was all in." And I said, "You know what? Can't do Genty,
8:06who I know is better than Amarian Hampton." I don't even think Amarian Hampton's good. I called I called Ashton Genty the running back of our generation
8:13on a show on Friday. And then you know what I did in Cash Games? I said, "No, no. I gotta play Amari and Hampton the
8:20the 10-point home favorites. Got to play Hampton first off is like whatever.
8:24He's fine." But [ __ ] Genty in this spot. Genty as a $6,600 player. This is like getting Bejian Robinson but for
8:32$1,000 less.
8:34>> You'll never get this price again.
8:37>> It's so bad. It's so bad. I played bad.
8:39I played bad.
8:40>> You did?
8:40>> I mean, buddy. Buddy, I played Genty in all my tournament lineups. It was just like so obvious. Like, dude, Gent. Of
8:46course, of course. And like in cash, it's like, no, no. Omar and Hampton threeman committee and these bungling idiot coaches. Like, Jesus Christ, it's
8:58so bad, bro. So bad.
9:00>> Yeah. And you know, Nate, I I got to I got to give you your flowers. I really I really do. You win. You win the threeman
9:08by uh what one point. Two 1.18 points.
9:13But you played you played Bejian Robinson and I would not >> just a straight a straight alltimer from
9:23Davis this morning. If you didn't see what I tweeted, this is what Davis uh tweeted or sent in our group chat.
9:30Nate was like, "Hey, I'm going Bejian and the Raiders over Hampton and the Steelers." And Davis says, and I quote, "Beon is so [ __ ] bad." LOL. Come on,
9:40Nate.
9:42>> It was more, first off, I would say any I would say anyone that Nate was going to play is bad in the morning. Like, it
9:47doesn't matter. Where I was coming from was I was just like, dude, I have to jam the Steelers defense is where I was
9:54coming at. I was just like, I I thought I played the Steelers defense. Steelers and Jets I played in 100% of of my
10:00lineups. I I thought the Steelers are the the Falcons are never winning this game. They're not going to be able to
10:06move the ball. I mean, and it's so funny cuz Drake London literally had like four points and Kyle Pittz had zero cuz it
10:11all went to Bejon because Bejon had uh eight receptions for 90 yards.
10:17>> This is what this is what Nate says to to Davis in reply. Davis says Bejon is so [ __ ] bad. Come on, Nate. And Nate
10:24says, "Yeah, getting eight Bejon dump offs from Cooper Rush really gonna be bad." like literally says eight. Like Nate just windmill dunking on Davis week
10:34one of the 2026 NFL season. The people love to see it.
10:38>> I just don't understand. I mean, literally Bejian literally was like second highest in the league in expected production last year. And he was more
10:46efficient than the workload that he got.
10:49And week one, we're expecting him to get more. He's getting all of the workload in this backfield. And that is like
10:55>> 20 21 rushes and 10 targets. It's It's not even a question. And you're like, I'm going to fade that so I can play
11:01Omar and Hampton.
11:02>> It wasn't It wasn't about where I don't even know if he's going to get any passing work. It might be all Katon
11:07Mitchell out there. We have no idea what Hampton's workload's going to look like.
11:11And it's not even like you're getting a big discount. You're saving like $1,000 to go to Hampton. And it's the core like
11:17the Bejian thing was so obvious. And for you to fade him simply because of Cooper Rush, he hasn't had a quarterback ever.
11:24I don't care if it's Cooper Rush. It's Bejian freaking Robinson at 7 and the expected production. You sit here making lineup decisions about a
11:32defense.
11:33>> No, we're in world Davis cuz we paid >> You're building your lineups around a defense.
11:39>> We paid up for defense like 2025.
11:43I just I guess where I was is I thought there was there were two defenses I think that were so obvious who were
11:50going to get like a minimum of 10 which were the Jags and the Steelers. So I really like a lot of the times when
12:00you're playing salary cap DFS on draft kings and cash games like by the time we get to week five and week six the salary
12:06is going to be so tight that we are going to be like dude we're taking the Panthers defense and we're hoping we're
12:11getting four you know but this was not that style of slate just the way the options came out and so I didn't think
12:19ending up with a defense that got five points was not going to be viable which it wasn't by the way today if you did
12:24end up with a defense that got like six points you were [ __ ] You were not you were not winning. Um you you you would
12:29have gotten >> Jacksonville put up >> a lot of points. I I don't know. They didn't they didn't score a touchdown,
12:35though. I don't think, >> dude. No, they didn't. But Deshun Watson is egregious, dude. He like there's no way he starts for more than like one or
12:43two weeks. So, I think moving forward, we really need to take advantage of this. Like, whoever Deshun Watson is playing, we have to play them. Doesn't
12:51matter the price. Like, >> winner. I >> I don't know what Cleveland's doing. why they started him this year. I mean, I I
12:59we can't be confident they're not going to play him for for the rest of the season. I I don't know what they're
13:03doing.
13:04>> Yeah.
13:04>> But I just Yeah. I can't believe that you jammed in a defense over Bjan and took a running back who I even said,
13:10"Don't do Hampton. Do A Chain or JT and instead you're like, "No, I'll take the guy with the shakiest workload." Like
13:18>> I I best ruined your brain. Best ruin your brain. No, I had Genty ranked over Hampton in baseball. I There's no
13:26excuse. There's no excuse. It's It's >> It's >> Here's Here's why I didn't do it. Here's why I didn't do it. And it'll lead into
13:35receiver because it was just so obvious in retrospect, but we already had Mayor who is the the free piece that if you
13:42didn't play him in cash, you're bad.
13:44>> This is what it was was that we had two Raiders. Yeah.
13:46>> And then and then we played Trey Tucker.
13:48And I was like, you know, I don't really think that I want to start off my my season here with three Raiders.
13:55>> That's a Nate move. That the three Raiders is the Nate move. [ __ ] Jacobe Myers, Ashton Genty, uh, Brock Powers.
14:02That's the Nate move.
14:04>> And he would have won. And he would have won. But it but it came down to But but here's the thing. It was really easy not
14:09to play Trey Tucker because you could have just played Veillay in the dome in a massive barn burner shootout and instead were like actually
14:20let's play Trey Tucker in a Raiders versus Dolphins game. Great [ __ ] idea. Like this is the one. Even Omar
14:28and Hampton I thought was was bad um in retrospect doing it over Genty but but Trey Tucker. Trey Tucker. Yeah, Trey
14:38Tucker is just never like we all played him, but Trey Tucker is just never like a you gotta play him guy. He just isn't.
14:45>> He had one week, one week last season he had that massive like three touchdown have it in his head that he can play
14:51ball. He can't play ball. I mean, [ __ ] Why did we play him? Like that was >> it's also it's also one of those things
14:58where if you have the position we have that the Raider well the position that I had which is the Raiders are going to
15:03win this game. It makes even less sense to play Trey Tucker who like needs like opportunities like he needs a couple
15:10deep shots to get there like like well I mean maybe he converts his one deep shot which I don't even believe he got in
15:16this game but you'd like to have like 40 Kurt Cousins dropbacks and and we were not ever getting that in this game.
15:23probably even if they're losing this game, we don't get 40 Kurt Cousins drop backs because it probably means Achan and Malik Willis are just like running
15:31nuclear. Like they're just like gaining there's averaging like six and a half yards per carry um or whatever. So the team that Nate played was Kyler Murray,
15:41Jamir Gibbs, Bejan Robinson, Trey Tucker, Jamar Chase, Aman Raj St. Brown, Jawan Johnson, Michael Mayer, and the Raiders. Our 3v3 was G Hampton and the
15:51Steelers over Kyler Murray, Devin Han, and the the Raiders. Um, which is I I mean I think I think good.
16:02I think so. The other thing that people did and I'm I'm pulling up the massive 25 or this is the giant.
16:08>> There was a big train that was achain and Jaguars D over Bjan and Raiders D.
16:13And there was also I can't find it but somewhere in here I believe the is was it this team? Uh this looks like a huge
16:21train but I didn't consider any of these players.
16:25I'm trying there was a there's the Levitan train is in here somewhere.
16:29Maybe this is it.
16:30>> Was it Vele? because that was um >> so it was it was basically >> it was using Vele instead of Tucker and
16:38then going from Hampton/BJ to Jonathan Taylor and then I think that lineup also played the Steelers defense instead of the Raiders defense. So it was I believe
16:49maybe it was Kyler maybe it was Goff I don't remember and then it was Gibbs Jonathan Taylor St. Brown, Tucker, Jawan Johnson, Mayor
17:03Raiders. I think >> the biggest the biggest double the biggest double up train was um I have it here pulled up. It's um Goff. Uh
17:14yeah, it's Goff, Jawan. I'm on Raw, but it's it's Gibbs and Achan. uh Chase
17:24uh Mayor Jawan and yeah Veil over uh Trey Tucker. So and then they played Jaguars D. So I I I I do feel bad about
17:34Trey Tucker. I mean we should have looked at Vele over Trey Tucker for sure. Especially because >> we for sure should have looked at VLE
17:39over Trey Tucker.
17:40>> Just the the game environment of of the Detroit game versus Vegas. I yeah that's >> yeah if you're going to take a secondary
17:48option I mean you know I think a the projections like like Tucker fine but also at least me I have this idea of
17:56like oh Trey Tucker is like their only pass catcher and he's not you know like he's just a guy >> Jack B so so I even this was I wish I
18:06knew who tweeted this but someone tweeted like well Bes was a tight end in college who converted wide receiver he's just going to slot into Bowowers's
18:14position which is exactly What happened?
18:16By the way, that that was literally B.
18:18It was just one for one. Bash just played Bowowers's position. Mayor played his position. He just had slightly better targets per route run, which he
18:26always does when Bowers is not on the field, right? But I mean, Mayor was in the massive $25 double up. Uh where is
18:35it? Here. Mayor was owned 78%. Vele was owned 34%. The biggest issue um with with our lineup stuff overall was that
18:44Jamar Chase scored 3.2 points, two receptions for 12 yards. I mean, obviously uh anything from Jamar Chase and when I I I um because I was having
18:55to actually >> he was what, like 60% owned.
18:58>> He was, but I was I was actually looking at ownership percentages of stuff today because I was sweating our swap so much.
19:04And something you realize is that early in the season before it's only true Incel virgins remaining playing these contests, you do have people who are
19:13just straight up playing bad. Like they do like their Jamar Chase lineup is included in that 68.6%. But they are like not even close.
19:20>> Like they're like their lineup is so far away from anything you could imagine that you're not even competing against them. And then you add that up. So
19:27obviously Jamar Chase gets and frankly given how bad our lineup was. I mean I scraped back $639 out of like $880
19:36entered or whatever. So it could have been could could have been a lot worse.
19:40I mean it could have been a it could have been a lot worse. And frankly I would assume the only reason my lineup
19:46was able to scrape anything back was >> is because Kyler was so >> Kyler got hurt. Kyler got hurt.
19:51>> Yeah. Yeah.
19:52>> Yeah.
19:53>> So >> yeah. Like didn't do great in the in the double ups but like the headtoheads.
19:56Yeah. people were playing bad in those and yeah, that got me.
20:01>> Um, but yeah, I mean, I think I think uh Nate Nate uh played good, ran bad with Kyler Murray.
20:08>> Um, I don't think there's anything really to learn. I mean, I probably just will play the true generational talent as a three-point home favorite instead
20:15of [ __ ] [ __ ] around with the Marian Hampton's [ __ ] >> That's just like sometimes when you lose, you're like,
20:24"Hey man, this was not avoidable." And I just like it is what it is and sometimes you just lose. But when it's a situation
20:29like this where I had a lot of opportunities to just play Genty, um I probably should have just I probably should have just played Genty. I mean
20:37Nate you should be giga tilting because you played good.
20:41>> Yeah, I am. I am. I like legitimately I was I mean obviously the chase thing is is what it is. But yeah, overall I felt
20:52like when I when I saw everything flop and I was like, "Wait, no one played Bejan. Everyone went some of these other
20:57running backs instead. I'll take the second highest expected production for $1,000 off." Yeah.
21:04>> Yeah. I think I think just just revisiting this, I think the biggest thing is Omaran Hampton doesn't have the receiving chops that a lot of these
21:12other guys >> Well, he did. He did last year. He he he like legitimately did last year, but to Nate's point, like we didn't know. Was
21:18it going to be Katon? Was it going to be Videll? Was it gonna be [ __ ] Alec Engold? Was it going to be like are they
21:23going to just play 12 personnel and not which is I mean we'll look at the I'll look at the Trdia and see what what
21:30actually happened. But yeah, it was just very annoying.
21:32>> Yeah. Yeah. Genty just like Genty just dude. He's so good.
21:38>> Yeah. Um okay, get to some tournament stuff now. So, this team I played in the double spy. So, this was 20k to first,
21:49uh, 555 entrance, $200 to enter. I played a 5% on Caleb Williams, who turned out 37 points. I did play Marian
21:57Hampton at 26%.
22:02>> Early contender for worst play of the year.
22:05>> Uh, Jir Gibbs, Justin Jefferson at 14%, early contender for You guys are so stupid. I can't believe you guys don't play Justin Jefferson. You're all
22:12really dumb.
22:13>> Garrett Wilson, who I did not think was going to get close to 17%. I was floored by that. I I thought that was wild. I
22:21thought he would be >> five >> 6%.
22:24>> Yeah. No, nobody wants Garrett Wilson.
22:26Nobody wants Jets. Like that's that's crazy. I can't believe he's 17%.
22:30>> Um I did Burden. I did who was 13%. Uh which I thought was I thought in smaller field he would be a little bit higher
22:38than that. I I don't I don't think that is that bad at all. Michael Mayer and Marshawn Lloyd with the Jets defense.
22:45And I thought I thought Lloyd at 5% I was like, if you would have told me Lloyd was single digits in all these
22:50contests, I probably would have played him more than I did. I did not play a ton of Marshon Lloyd. Now, uh turns out
22:57the Grim Bay Packers stink. Their offensive line is terrible and they he just like never got an attempt to run downhill at at all. And and Marshon
23:06Lloyd is like not the guy like he's part of part of a backfield.
23:10>> I mean he led it, right? But like he didn't start the game.
23:14>> He didn't get a did he target? You know, it's just like >> I he I don't I don't believe I don't
23:19believe he did get target. He was 4,800 and it kept me from playing chalk ve Trey Tucker Chalk Jawan Johnson like all
23:28those guys. Giga and and Lloyd's projection was very similar to those dudes. I mean, Marshon Lloyd for 11.6,
23:38Jawan Johnson for 10.8, uh, Vele for 8.4, Tucker for well, 12.3. But I think I
23:50think given the um Oh, he did he did get a target in the end zone. Good for him.
23:54I mean, frankly, like I I think that's a that's actually a play I would make again. I I actually don't I
24:02actually don't really feel that bad about that one about at playing him at 5%.
24:08>> Caleb [ __ ] smashed, dude. He had an insane game. The Bears put up 59 points and Coulson Loveland had two targets and
24:18zero receptions.
24:20>> Like the the baseball bros, the seasonal bro, dude, people are tilting about this.
24:27>> Yeah, they uh they they need to take a deep breath. Uh, yes, Nathaniel, you're on mute, brother.
24:34>> Oh, sorry. I had upload showdown. Uh, Lovelin was out there for like every route. I mean, Lovelin was Loveland.
24:41>> Him and Terrence Ferguson are sitting in the sauna together like, "Bro, we just ran bad, you know."
24:46>> Yeah, I'm not worried about this. This was like a This was like a I think like a 82% sim ROI or whatever in a 500
24:53person field in uh on on Run the Sims.
24:57Like I >> I really like I I just particular I mean I didn't I did not think Garrett Wilson would be 17%. And I obviously really
25:05rather wish that this was Genty, but I mean Justin Jefferson at 14 15% dude.
25:11Like I I would play I would play this lineup again. I really I really would.
25:16>> Yeah. With a with a tight end in there instead of Lloyd.
25:21>> I'm just saying no. I'm just saying like if we ran this late again, I I would probably run this lineup back without
25:25with literally anyone other than Hampton. I put put [ __ ] put Aaron Jones in there, dude. I don't care. I'm I'm done. I'm out on the
25:33Chargers, bro. I'm out. Any remaining stock I have on um >> Dump it.
25:38>> Yeah, I I'm I'll sell it. I'll sell it for >> Attach it attach it to to to Seville and stuff. And
25:44>> I'm I'm sorry, dude. I'm not I'm not giving 31 points, eight receptions, 92 yards, two touchdowns, and a two-point conversion for Justin Jefferson. Sucked
25:53out. I'm sorry.
25:53>> Yeah, I'm vetoing I'm vetoing touchdown.
25:56He got the trash touchdown, but it was awesome. Like full extension, horizontal to the ground, hits the pylon after a toe tap touchdown, after a two-point
26:06conversion. He didn't suck out. He just he just needed he he sucked out in the sense that Kyler Murray got hurt.
26:13>> He's he's the He doesn't have this team with Kyler Murray. I [ __ ] >> I mean, he's the he's the best or the
26:18second best wide receiver in the NFL.
26:20And because people are just so angry about him not being good for fantasy last year, I I just knew he would be I I
26:28had a strong feeling he would be very underowned in this late. And guess what?
26:33That will ne this will never happen again. He will he will now be as owned as St. Brown and Chase every week
26:40basically. I think I would imagine.
26:44>> Yeah. Yeah, >> I don't know. I mean, it depends on the quarterback situation for us.
26:48>> It depends on the quarterback and the game total and everything, but yes, like I I think it will be very rare for us to
26:53load up a slate. Uh Jamar Chase, uh Jamar Chase 27%, St. Brown 20%, Justin Jefferson 8%. I I don't I don't I don't
27:03think so. I maybe maybe you know I I don't know. Um yeah, there were there were six rushing touchdowns in that game
27:10though. Manungai had the bonus and two touchdowns.
27:15Swift had the bonus and three touchdowns. And Caleb ran for two touchdowns. So, so or did Manunga only score one?
27:22>> Manunga had one. 10 for 101. A very a very aesthetically pleasing box score line.
27:29>> Um, okay. So, let's uh uh Nate, give me a lineup to to run through the uh the sim and then tell me
27:37the the field size.
27:39>> Have Sammy go first. I'll do next.
27:41>> Okay. I actually here Sammy text it to me. So I'll pull uh I'll >> this is my uh powers sweep team. I
27:48actually I'm on I'm I'm traveling right now. I'm at a buddy's house.
27:52>> What size What field size is that? Like 1500.
27:57>> I don't know.
27:58>> Let's go 1500. Sure.
28:00>> I think it's like 3,000.
28:02>> Okay. We'll do 3,000 and we'll do top heavy. And that is 150. And you played uh well you were you were smart on this
28:11one brother. You played uh you played you played well you played Ginty.
28:15>> I played Ginty in all my tournament lineups. That's why I'm [ __ ] mad at myself man. It's just like I knew dude I
28:20knew Genti is a boss. Like I knew he's great. Like of course.
28:23>> Now so you did you did the uh the Joe Burrow double which um I mean has got to be O for lifetime on both T and Chase
28:33getting there in the same game. Like literally >> Lean Levitan won a quarter mill with it a couple years ago, you know? It's just
28:39like it's it's happened for people just just not me.
28:43>> All right. Narate narrate this lineup for me please.
28:46>> Uh I mean what is what is the lineup here? Like >> it is Joe Burrow, Ashton Genty, Breeze Hall.
28:52>> Okay.
28:53>> Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, Echa Igbuka as the bring back, Samuel Leaporta, Michael Mayer in the New York Jets defense.
29:01>> Yeah. So, you know, obviously it's a it's a double uh with Burrow and Chase.
29:06And then I thought I would be super underowned. He came in at a little under six% and you know, people are off of him
29:14because the the injury in the offseason, this and that, but I thought he was a great bring back at like that ownership.
29:21So, obviously going all in on this game, uh that didn't work out, but I had uh Genty in this lineup cuz Genti is just a
29:29a [ __ ] beast. And then I had Bree Hall as my other running back. And I just thought Breeze, you know, like he's
29:36that guy that, you know, people don't want Jets.
29:39>> People forget.
29:40>> Yeah. People forget, dude. Bree has all the juice and he works in the passing game. And it was just one of those like
29:47he he did really well. Um I don't think he got the bonus, so he was like a little short there. And then uh I I
29:55played Mayor, but it was a double tight end. So I played Mayor, but then I also played Leaporta. And I thought in this
30:00lineup that didn't have anything from that Saints and Lions game that Leaporta was really good leverage off people really smashing in like Aman Raw and uh
30:11Jir Gibbs. And then I played the Jets, Tennessee is ass, Cam Ward is ass. And I just thought, you know, the little the
30:18little pairing with Bree Hall um I thought was good. The uh the Sims, they don't like it pre-lock uh through the
30:28solver. Anyway, this one had a pretty good like a 50% ROI. So, it was like we're seeing something obviously quite a
30:34bit different here through through this sim.
30:36>> I would assume our projections were just a lot lower on Leaporta. I I would there or because I know um talking to or or
30:48reading like Jack Miller and Mark Dengs tweets that they just have a pretty high base projection on Sam Leaporta. Um, and
30:56I wonder if I wonder if maybe we were a little lower on Burrow or maybe something was different with the the
31:01peons. Maybe our peons were higher on T.
31:05Uh, that that could certainly that could certainly be it. I mean, Ibuka also was not showing up as a as a
31:12huge looking looking at this. I think the issue is actually Bree losing points to the field because so many people were
31:20playing running backs projected four or five points better. you know, you're you're I mean, >> obviously we saw this worked out, but
31:27even Hampton um projected well. Yeah.
31:29And I and and I think uh our stuff was also actually a little bit a little bit lower. On Mayor Nate, what do you have
31:37on uh on this lineup?
31:43>> You're on mute.
31:44>> You're on mute. Roast me, Nate. Come on.
31:46Come on. What's happening?
31:47>> Actually, I don't hate this lineup. I mean, I think what I liked about the lineup is that you took like a common
31:53construction with two tight end and you tried to get different with like Leaporta and Burrow. I don't think most people who went with Leaporta didn't go
32:03with Goff and so I think you probably are more unique there than than I would think, but um like even though they're
32:11chalkier players overall, but yeah, I don't I don't mind it. should just done the Burrow to Gaseki and you know I mean
32:19Burrow obviously the passing game for the Bengals didn't come through today you know Burrow threw for one touchdown Jamar Chase had four targets on 35
32:27attempts I mean I don't know what they were doing schematically but he was like not getting open and at least one of
32:33those was just like a screen but they were like get the ball in this guy's hands like he was getting swallowed up
32:38so in a game with like pretty good amount of scoring and back and forth you know don't don't love to see that from
32:44Jamar Chase probably like a oneweek blip. But >> yeah, he he douched us today, boys.
32:49>> That was so It was insanely tilting, dude. I like actually couldn't believe it.
32:54>> And it was just every drive. Every drive I was just like, "This is going to be it. This is going to be it. This is
32:59going to be it." Was not it.
33:02>> Gazaki.
33:03>> No, it uh it it most certainly it most certainly was uh was not it. um in in frankly in in no way, shape, or form was
33:12uh was was that it at all? Um all right.
33:16I mean, any any other interesting notes to uh to add on your on your lineup, Sammy?
33:23>> Yeah, pull up my I had a burrow lineup in a in a single entry that might be similar. I'd be interested to see how it
33:29sims differently.
33:31>> Uh yes. Okay. Tell me give me your Give me the line. Burrow Burrow Gibbs Bejon Trey Tucker Jamar Chase T. Higgins and
33:40then Mark Andrews Meer Jets D.
33:46>> Mark Andrews.
33:48I think the only Andrews lineup I played was with uh was with Lamar. Uh >> it was the similar thing that I liked.
33:56Yeah, it was the similar thing I liked about Sammy's lineup of like >> Who were who were the other two receivers? Uh
34:02>> Trey and T.
34:06I bet uh I bet I bet our projection of Mark Andrews was like >> nothing.
34:13>> Six points. I I'm gonna I'm gonna What?
34:16What? What? Uh what what what field?
34:20>> 2000. It was the big spy. The 200k spy.
34:23>> So 2000.
34:24>> What was Andrew's >> Sorry. What was Andrew's salary? Was it like high threes?
34:29>> Yeah.
34:30>> Yeah.
34:32>> Yeah. Um, I mean, conceptually, I actually like this lineup less than
34:40Sam's just because Tucker, Mayor, Chalk with Chase Chalk. So, your your differential pieces here are I mean, I I don't think I don't think this lineup is
34:51bad. This is I mean, it's kind of >> wasn't that owned, right?
34:55>> Yeah. I guess I I was thinking he was like 20, but maybe he wasn't.
34:59>> So, that's where that's what Nate's doing. He's essentially like, you know, doing what we were talking about, taking a chalk build and then pivoting, you
35:08know, to Mark Andrews, who's not going to be owned at all. Uh there's a reason why, but he's not going to be owned. But
35:13then taking Bejan, who can like break the slate over other running backs, um you know, if you're doing that and and
35:22the Bengals stat goes off, you're you can eat chalk in other spots.
35:26>> Yes, I I agree. Um post lock, Bejon would sim out. Um, insanely good. Yeah, this >> and that's what I'm trying to do. I
35:35mean, like ultimately you're not trying to get the guy that everybody thinks >> you're trying to flip over the guys that
35:41post lock are going to come in under own. It's >> Yeah. Yeah.
35:45>> So, yeah. Interesting to see what it And this pre-lock.
35:50>> Yeah. Yeah. So, this is all this is all this is all with the peons and everything from from pre-lock. This is
35:55these are not actuals.
35:56>> So, yeah. I bet when it flipped over post lock both Gibbs and Bejon and Chase would sim out better because those guys
36:04came in less than I what did what did you have Gibbs projected for in that?
36:08>> Not not whatever he was. Yeah, 40 43%.
36:13>> And then what was Chase projected at?
36:16>> Uh 31.8%.
36:20>> And then what was Trey?
36:2315% which he was he ended up being >> His too [ __ ] high, man.
36:27>> Yeah. Too [ __ ] high.
36:29>> Jesus Christ.
36:32>> Yeah. Overall, >> did you have any good sweats today?
36:36>> I had one that was like it was a Bryce Young um or I had I had two. I had one
36:42that was a Bryce Young double with Coker and um uh McMillan.
36:48>> Coker.
36:50>> Joker. Yeah. the cokeheads are spinning.
36:53>> And then I had another good one with uh Trevor Lawrence, but it kind of fizzled out with uh I think I
37:01had too much Charger exposure in that one.
37:06>> Yeah, >> man. The [ __ ] Chargers, dude. I can't believe that [ __ ] >> I really, dude, >> the Chargers are so tilting.
37:15Like the Mike McDan, I don't know why I fell for it again. Like Oh, they got Mike McDaniel in his capries and his sandals. Like, it's
37:25going to be like the, you know, 2022 Dolphins all over again or whatever year. I mean, Jesus Christ.
37:31Like, >> honestly, you know what, Marker? I can't. You know what? I can believe it.
37:37I You know what? I actually should change my mind. I can believe it. Justin Herbert is straight up, bro. We talk
37:42about Justin Herbert like he's a [ __ ] baby. He's 30, dude. He's never won a playoff game.
37:48He's not 30, is he?
37:50>> Is he really? No, he's got to be 26. 27.
37:53>> Justin Herbert, age 28 years old. Never won a playoff game.
37:58>> I'm not 30. Jesus.
38:00>> 28's basically 30.
38:02>> 28 might as well be 30.
38:04>> 28 might as well 28.
38:06>> You're in your 30s now, but when you're in your 20s, you're like, dude, that's that's not even close. Dude, I just
38:11realized today I'm like I think I'm like the age now that I that Sammy was when we met him and he was old when we met
38:19and now that's us.
38:20>> This So this happens, man. This happens as you like get older. When you're in your when you're in your 20s, you're
38:27like, dude, people who are 30 plus are in their 30s are old. And then you get in your 30s and you're like, man, people
38:32who are 40 plus, that is [ __ ] old.
38:35Then you get in your 40s and you're like, yeah, 50 is pretty old, man. This is This is I'm in the prime. So, yeah,
38:41it it just keeps going. I'm I'm excited to see what happens in the 50s.
38:46>> Dude, the Chargers play the Raiders next week as like giga favorites again.
38:50>> Oh, let's go, Jenty. We're running it back.
38:52>> Yeah, we're running it back.
38:53>> I'm going right back to the Trey Tucker.
38:59>> I can't >> I'm not I'm I'm not going back to Trey Tucker. That is not happening for me.
39:04>> I will not be going back. I will. I will. I will gladly I will be gladly going back to to mayor though easily
39:11easily back to to Michael Mayer.
39:13>> So Michael Mayor ran 23 routes which on the Raiders was 27. Yeah. So he ran he ran the second
39:25most routes on the Raiders.
39:27>> I can't believe we took Charlie [ __ ] Colar over him in that vest ball. Man, >> I actually don't think we I actually
39:32don't think we did.
39:33>> Oh, really?
39:34I think I believe I believe we got I believe we got sniped on >> that that'll really that'll really make me feel better about my life honestly.
39:41Like Michael Mayer is a dude.
39:43>> Uh I mean I just sent you >> Charger.
39:47>> I just sent you the uh screenshot, didn't I?
39:50>> Yeah. I don't Well, >> not good.
39:54>> Um our tight end room No, sadly our tight end room does does have Charlie Clar on it. Um, you know, people were
40:01people were are asking me like, "Oh, Terrence Ferguson, like are you panicked?" And I'm like, "I you know, it wasn't great that he didn't earn any
40:06routes, but like the whole team was a mess." I I think T Ferg can like still probably get there, like particularly
40:13for best. Colar though, that's not happening, bro.
40:17>> No tight end separated this week other than McBride. I mean, Bowowers is hurt.
40:21Loveland was a legitimate zero and Trey McBride is the only one who did anything. Dallas got 25 points, brother.
40:29Dude, McBride is just I >> That's the biggest takeaway of the week.
40:33Why didn't I just jam McBride? McBride just does this, >> bro. He is the goat. I don't >> I'm like I'm like making all these prize
40:40picks and underdog tickets and Trey McBride is there at 56 and a half yards.
40:44And I'm like, nah. And literally a drive and a half in he's got it. And and I was just like, what am I thinking? I'm like
40:52sweating Chris Bell overs and I'm just like why did I not put Trey McBride in like at 56 and a half? What am I
40:59thinking? What are we thinking? The the reports of his demise I mean people were like oh Coulson Lovelin over Trey McBride and I kind of thought so too. Um
41:10I know it's just one week overreaction maybe but Jesus Christ that looks bad.
41:16>> Kendrick Kendrick Bourne by the way that's going to be real inconvenient truth for Michael Wilson. if you were if you were a Michael Wilson bro.
41:24>> Inconvenient truth for uh Harrison who's just >> he just needs to retire. He just >> talk about a bus. I mean
41:34>> the the one thing it's unreal >> if his dad was like really loved him.
41:40His dad would like drug him and put him in a dungeon and then he'd show up to the game in uniform and play for him and
41:47he'd be way better. Yeah, >> 100%. That's a dad move.
41:52>> All right, everyone. Thank you for watching and listening to the Guildcast.
41:56We will be back with all of you guys next week. Maybe we should do like a listener league or something. Well, no,
42:02we shouldn't do a listener league because we don't want people to know our lineups because then they won't want to watch the show. Um, so never mind. I
42:07completely changed my mind about that.
42:09So, we'll be back again with you next week hopefully featuring no Charger talk. Honestly, if there's any Charger talk, I hope it is. LOL. The Chargers
42:18just got [ __ ] mogged by uh by the the Las Vegas Raiders and and Michael Mayer.
42:24We will uh we'll see you then.

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