VideoFrom Davis Mattek
Week 7 Picks, Props, Survivor
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
58 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Oct 23, 2026
Published
Fri, October 23, 2026
17
Player insights
17
Players mentioned
Topics
Brandon SmithBryce YoungCade OttonChristian WatsonDare OgunbowaleDeuce VaughnGeorge KittleIsaiah LikelyJ.J. McCarthyJalen CokerJayden DanielsJaylen WrightJustin JeffersonLamar Jackson
Player analysis
Player insights
Brandon Smith
NegativeDepth Chart26:11
Brandon Smith was the Steelers' wide receiver three in their game against the Buccaneers. He is an undrafted player from 2020-2021 who came from the DC Defenders and attended the University of Iowa, and was on the practice squad before seeing significant snaps (44% of team snaps).
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeRole21:21
Young's scramble situations and broken plays are the primary driver of Jaylen Coker's deep-threat role. Every time Young extends a play, Coker is consistently the recipient, establishing a key connection for deep-ball opportunities.
Insight pageCade Otton
PositiveValue10:10
Davis Mattek identifies Cade Otton's 3.5 reception prop at -160 odds (1.6x multiplier) as the top play of the segment. With Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin Jr. unavailable, Otton is positioned to operate as a primary target. Historical context: in 2024 games without Evans and Godwin, Otton posted 9 rec/81 yards/2 TD vs. Atlanta, 8 rec/77 yards/1 TD vs. Kansas City, and 5 rec/35 yards/0 TD vs. San Francisco. Ihmir Smith-Marsette is doubtful, further elevating Otton's role. Baker Mayfield's protective brace may reduce air yards, but Mattek still favors the reception target over yards or touchdown props. Otton is also selected for a locked-in parlay prop bet at higher than 3.5 receptions, with Mattek noting he 'turns into prime Gronkowski' when Evans and Smith-Marsette are both off the field.
Insight pageChristian Watson
NegativeRole34:19
Compared unfavorably to Romeo Doubs (Golden) in red zone opportunity; while the Packers will run more red zone plays for Watson, Davis Mattek believes Golden is the better receiver and notes Watson lacks the full route tree that Golden surprisingly possesses. This is a contrarian opinion Mattek refuses to change.
Insight pageDare Ogunbowale
NegativeUsage16:56
Part of Texans backfield committee for Week 7 vs. Giants but has zero rushing attempts on the season, indicating minimal offensive role and limited fantasy upside in a crowded backfield.
Insight pageDeuce Vaughn
NegativeDepth Chart16:56
Practice squad running back called up for Texans backfield in Week 7 vs. Giants; part of a three-back committee alongside Jaquavious Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale, who has zero rushing attempts on the season.
Insight pageGeorge Kittle
NegativeValue31:57
Receiving lines (4.5 receptions, 54.5 yards) are juiced compared to his normal pricing, while his touchdown number remains unchanged at approximately 1.58x multiplier on anytime touchdown prop; Davis Mattek views this as potentially a honeypot or trap, suggesting the sportsbook may know something about his usage or opportunity. Kittle is included in parlay selections for anytime touchdown.
Insight pageIsaiah Likely
PositiveValue30:08
Likely is averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game, which would rank him as wide receiver seven if eligible at that position. The source is selecting him for an anytime touchdown prop at 1.7x odds (described as 'old fantasy' pricing), suggesting the price may not reflect his production level. The source also emphasizes a sentimental angle: Likely playing with JJ McCarthy in the stadium where McCarthy won a national championship, framing it as a 'lock it up' bet. Identified as one of three picks requiring actual sweat in the parlay.
Insight pageJ.J. McCarthy
PositiveProjection30:26
The source expresses belief in J.J. McCarthy and notes the Vikings will be trailing against the Ravens, creating a game script favorable for passing volume and offensive usage. The source believes the 1.7x multiplier on McCarthy's anytime touchdown prop is surprisingly low given the anticipated passing volume and game script.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveProjection20:16
Week 7 prop bet selection for longest reception over 22.5 yards; identified as the primary deep threat for the Carolina Panthers with ridiculous yards per target. The Buccaneers have given up receptions greater than 22.5 yards in every game except Pittsburgh, making this matchup favorable for clearing the threshold. Davis Mattek wanted to include Coker in a parlay alongside Kate Otten.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
NegativeInjury44:10
Availability uncertainty affects the Texans' schedule strength in survivor analysis. The source notes the Texans get to play the Commanders 'who might not have Jaden Daniels by then,' implying injury risk or potential absence impacts the matchup quality for survivor purposes.
Insight pageJaylen Wright
NegativeRole14:14
Jaylen Wright started for the Dolphins against the Vikings two games ago, establishing him as a potential backup option to Ollie Gordon. The source frames Wright as a limited out—if Miami decides Gordon doesn't have the hot hand, Wright could see increased usage. However, Gordon is not completely entrenched, and the source acknowledges Wright as a contingency rather than a primary play.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveMatchup8:48
With Sauce Gardner out for the Jets, Justin Jefferson is positioned as a primary target for the Vikings offense in Week 7. Davis Mattek expresses confidence with 'all in on Justin Jefferson' language, reflecting elevated usage and opportunity against a depleted Jets secondary.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
NegativeInjury44:39
Referenced as an example of quarterback injury risk in Survivor strategy context; Davis Mattek notes that elite QBs like Jackson are worth so much against the spread that their injuries can derail even well-planned Survivor lineups, making it valuable to bank wins with weaker teams to hedge against unpredictable QB health issues.
Insight pageOllie Gordon II
PositiveValue13:05
Davis Mattek targets Ollie Gordon's combined rushing plus receiving yards at 59.5 as an underpriced lower. The math is suspicious: 49.5 rushing plus 14.5 receiving does not sum to 60, suggesting the sportsbook is overpricing the combined prop. Mattek notes multiple outs: Jaylen Wright started two games ago for Miami vs. Minnesota, so Gordon is not completely entrenched as the lead back. Additionally, the Dolphins are likely to be down in this game, which could limit Gordon's volume. Despite these outs, Mattek views this as a strong angle with favorable odds.
Insight pagePatrick Mahomes
NegativeInjury44:39
Referenced as an example of quarterback injury risk in Survivor strategy context; Davis Mattek notes that elite QBs like Mahomes are worth so much against the spread that their injuries can derail even well-planned Survivor lineups, making it valuable to bank wins with weaker teams to hedge against unpredictable QB health issues.
Insight pageWoody Marks
PositiveUsage15:59
Marks is selected for anytime touchdown in a locked-in parlay as effectively the sole running back for the Houston Texans with high snap share. The source notes it's rare to see a back get all touches and expects Marks to be the only running back to get a touch in the game.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00I'm not going to lie, Nez. This is very unsustainable the level of success that I'm having picking games, but we are
0:06five and one. My only loss picking against the spread on this show of the year was week two, the Jags somehow
0:13losing to the Denver Broncos, which feels preposterous thinking back on that. Um and my last week was no sweat.
0:21The uh the Chicago Bears, I mean, how Well, I guess maybe it got minimally sweaty there at the end.
0:27>> Mhm.
0:28>> I would say I would say right now the Bears are one of the most undervalued teams in the markets uh at large. I think they're like I
0:35don't know, the fourth or fifth best team in the NFL. Like neutral field Bears Niners right now, Niners are probably favored by two and a half, I'm
0:43taking the Bears. Give me Give me the two and a half with the with the Bears there. But we're not taking a very good
0:48team uh for for my pick this week. We are going to take the New York Football Jets minus four and a half points at
0:56home against the Miami Dolphins. This is a classic spot where you actually are going to have to sweat this one, >> Yeah.
1:02>> unfortunately. Um if you if you place this wager, this is not going to be one that is uh done and dusted at halftime.
1:09Now, the Jets are better in every measurement that you could possibly imagine versus the Miami Dolphins.
1:16They're 20th in opponent adjusted DVOA.
1:19Though, worth noting, if you don't do opponent adjusted DVOA and you just do straight up DVOA, you get them in I
1:28believe they're 14th overall. So so much better if you don't adjust it.
1:32Obviously, the Dolphins are 32nd in everything. 32nd in total, 32nd in special teams, 30th in defense, 32nd in offense, same for EPA per play.
1:44Would you be surprised to know, Nez, I You're a ball knower, so you wouldn't.
1:48Would you be surprised to know that the New York Football Jets are 0.3 EPA per play passing the ball? They're They're
1:55like legitimately like above like top 15 per play passing offense.
2:01>> No, I I I definitely believe that.
2:03That's kind of Geno Smith has always sort of been like an EPA merchant.
2:06>> EPA hacker. Yeah.
2:08>> Yeah, he is. He's just one of those guys. Like and they don't throw the ball like a ton. So, they haven't had a ton of
2:14opportunity to like rack up a lot of negative EPA, but uh yeah, no, I mean, I think most people would definitely be
2:20shocked to to hear that and hey, man, this is okay.
2:26I love this pick cuz I think that the Jets should be like six and a half.
2:31>> For sure. Yeah.
2:32>> I'm just saying look out for the New York Jets.
2:35>> Look out for them, dude. They're They're >> they're getting really healthy and they're they're they're kind of they're kind of
2:41okay. I don't know. I don't want to say they're good, but >> Well, no, because because you you do actually get this discount with teams in
2:49the market quite often. Um real I mean, not too much in football because there's so much liquidity in these lines. Like
2:56it's it's very hard to say like in the NFL like wrong team favored. Like I don't know, a Tuesday night college
3:01basketball game, sure. Tell me tell me wrong team's favored and I might believe your numbers. But there is a little bit
3:08of like lol same old Jets and I'm like, I don't know, man. What an 11 personnel of Garrett Wilson, Konyan Sedique, Allen
3:15Lazard, Mitchell, and Omar Cooper Jr.
3:16with Breece Hall. Is that like the fifth best 11 personnel offense?
3:22Like are you taking are you I mean, certainly um I mean, it would be the best in their division, right? I don't even it
3:29wouldn't even it wouldn't even be close in their division how much it would be the best. And And we obviously we've
3:34seen Geno have these, you know, nine, 10, 11 win seasons before. Uh also, you know, just kind of on top of
3:42all of this, the Miami Dolphins are like most certainly not trying to win these games. So, they bleed win expectancy that way.
3:50Uh the reason why this is four and a half and not six and a half and and I I did this whole bit with Jacob about this
3:55yesterday is the Jets are going to have at least one 13-minute drive in this game and that drive probably ends with a
4:03field goal. And so because that's going to happen, you just you just are you're playing on a knife's edge. But I'm taking the New
4:09York football Jets minus four and a half. I'm betting it on DK cuz that's what I'm logged into on my computer. I'm
4:15sure you can get a better price than this. Actually shout out to not a sponsor of the program.
4:21But um maybe someday. I've been I I've been predicting on No Vig and it's it's been like I got I got 125 to
4:32one on No Vig yesterday for Xavien Thomas first touchdown which was like best on the market by like a bazillion.
4:39Now obviously it didn't even come close to hitting but but there we go. All right, Mr. Nez Takes.
4:46Where are you taking me to place wagers against the spread?
4:50>> Yeah, so tough tough week for sure. I this is a really tight week. There's only two teams favored by a touchdown or
4:56more.
4:56>> For sure. Yeah, I agree with this.
4:59>> I'm I'm definitely I so I don't like to do like plus you know, I don't like to take plus spreads on dogs. I'd rather just take
5:08dogs for moneyline. But I'm going to give you a spread here and it's it's the Vikings minus six and a half. Um
5:15>> This was if I if I didn't take the Jets, this was the this was the other one that I was looking at. So let me fire
5:22this bet in on the Jets real quick. The Colts can't hang, dude. They absolutely cannot hang with the Vikings.
5:28>> It's going to like the Vikings defense is like obviously very good but they're also getting these matchups where it's just like this is
5:36we're watching snuff films here with Brandon against these offenses.
5:40>> Yeah, we are watching quarterbacks lives getting snatched. We are watching these guys are never coming back. I mean, I know it was in the rain and
5:49everything, but the Bears have basically been Harlem Globetrotting on everyone on offense. Well, I guess not I guess not the Packers. I mean, that was Payton in
5:58there, but like with Caleb in, they've been completely insane. And the Vikings were just like, yeah, good good good joke, man. Let's uh let's let's go ahead
6:07and get this done. So, the Minnesota Vikings are allowing 4.6 yd per play, tied for second best in the NFL. They
6:15have allowed three passing touchdowns versus six interceptions, 5 yd per net adjusted per passing attempt. And you might say, oh, well, surely then teams
6:25are finding some success on the ground against them since they're just blitzing so much. Um no. No, you would be you would be you
6:32would be uh sadly sadly mistaken about that. They've given This is actually crazy.
6:38They have given up 433 rushing yd total.
6:44Worst in the NFL is the Cowboys who've given up 899, which means that the Cowboys run defense is more than twice
6:53as bad as the Minnesota Vikings run defense.
6:56>> That's crazy. That is a crazy stat.
6:59>> Yeah.
7:00It it it it's insane.
7:02>> Yeah, they they dominate in EPA per play.
7:04Um and we really haven't seen I don't I I don't actually don't even know if they're getting Addison back. Uh >> I I
7:12think he got in a practice yesterday. I frankly, I don't really care.
7:17>> I don't either.
7:18>> But but sure, yeah.
7:19>> Yeah. They we just haven't seen even like the Vikings offense be what they what all they can be. Uh and it just it
7:27just profiles for such an easy win for the Vikings. The The Colts can't stop the rush. Uh the Vikings would probably
7:33would like to rush the ball quite a bit, you know, paired with like a strong defense. It's just an easy easy script.
7:38>> Yes, 100%. And the on the other side of the ball, I mean, we got GM fired. You have Quenton Nelson doing his like post
7:47practice availability being like, "Hey, thanks to the Colts for everything.
7:50Really appreciate it."
7:52Yeah, [laughter] you know, love loved my time here, but you know, we'll see you what the future holds.
7:58You got Jonathan Taylor in trade rumors.
8:01It's all I mean, national beat writers are floating a Josh Downs trade, which would be like insane. I mean, I I guess I guess it it
8:11could happen. And if you're if you're looking for another reason to think that the Vikings might be a little bit more
8:15efficient running the ball than they have been.
8:18They are getting Jordan Mason back and you know, Jordan Well, you want to talk about an EPA hacker. Jordan Mason is
8:27always one of those guys that you go look at all the fancy metrics, the rushing yards over expectation, the yards before I all that stuff and he
8:33always just looks like really good despite when you watch the game, he looks positively Ramondre and for for months. Stevensonian, you know, like he
8:41just he just is is just a guy out there.
8:44And um I mean, Sauce probably no Sauce in this game, so we're just going it's all in on on Justin Jefferson,
8:52brother.
8:53>> Yeah, right. Yeah, it's just it just seems pretty pretty easy to to take this one.
9:00Yeah, I'm if it was seven and a half, I think it would it would be a little little trickier, but I like I like this
9:05six and a half just right under that that key number.
9:08>> Yeah, six six and a half is is really fire.
9:11All right, man, let's head on over to the dog application and let's start firing some props over there. We will do the
9:21four flex because that's actually the most analytical when you get to the four and you flex it, you're actually not being penalized as much as you would
9:28think for the flex. It's it's a way to play an exploit on Underdog.
9:33>> Is that real?
9:34>> That that is actually real.
9:36>> I've been done.
9:37I've been >> So, if they are if they are all independent, so there are no selections from the same game, and you do four flex, you get Someone
9:46would have to explain it in the comments or in the chat or whatever. Uh smarter people than me have explained it, but
9:51basically the four the four with the flex on the dog app is one of the most plus EV force parlays that you can make
10:01on the market.
10:02>> Nice.
10:03>> Yeah.
10:03>> Yeah, yeah, it's it's kind of not counterintuitive, but you just automatically assume that using a flex or insurance is always like negative EV,
10:11but you actually if you're trying to like, you know, get money back and not lose money, that is like, yeah, that
10:18that's what that I I just I just knew that five and as a flex used to be the the goat, and then
10:23they changed the multipliers, and now four is now like like uh the the best.
10:29>> Yes. And it's due to it's due to whatever change they made where like the base rate is 3.5x now or whatever. It's
10:39it's it's because of that. So, shout out to DraftKings.
10:42>> used to be threes and fives, now it's twos and fours.
10:44>> Correct. Yes.
10:46Uh all right, man. Let's go ahead and begin with our favorite plays. I will go ahead and begin. I will give you the
10:52easiest one of all time if it is posted.
10:56Uh I will take 3.5 receptions for my goat, Cade Otton. You are getting a little bit of a penalty here. This is
11:03like minus 160, I believe is the is the translation, uh at 1.6x on the new prediction. Um you could honestly, if
11:11you wanted to, you could slide this, you could take receiving yards, you could take touchdown score, but no Emeka Egbuka, no Mike Evans.
11:21Cade Otton turns into prime Gronk. The uh the numbers if in case anyone in case anyone had forgotten, but in 2024, no
11:27Mike Evans, no Godwin, we got nine for 81 and two against Atlanta, eight for 77 and one against Kansas City, and then five for
11:3735 no TD against the 49ers. And this is I mean, Chris Godwin Jr. basically doesn't exist, rest in peace. And Ihmir
11:45Smith-Marsette, we just got the update about 30 seconds ago. He's listed as doubtful, not expecting Ihmir Smith-Marsette to play.
11:51>> I was going to say I saw he was at practice Friday, but my know- my extensive knowledge of the concussion
11:57protocol uh knew that like that wasn't going to be good enough cuz he needed the Thursday practice. He has to do Thursday, Friday
12:06in some capacity. So, I knew the Friday wasn't good enough. So, uh yeah, this is nice. This is nice. I will I will play
12:12this alongside you.
12:14>> All right. Um so, that is my That right there is my top prop. I I like if you honestly, if you wanted to do the yards
12:20just to get the better multiplier, I'm I'm totally fine with that. Um but, receptions given I I wonder if if Baker's A-dot is going to come down a
12:31good bit in this game because he is playing with this protective brace. And and also, I mean, the the Panthers are
12:36like low-key kind of a wagon, you know?
12:38They are They're They're They're like a pretty good team. So, I I think >> They are.
12:42>> Yeah, the the the Buccaneers road dogs.
12:45So, Cade Otton higher than three and a half receptions.
12:49Where would you like to look next?
12:51>> So, I was going to go on the other side of this game, but I don't want to like completely nuke
12:57the the odds by by doing so. Uh so, I would go to uh let's go to Ollie Gordon.
13:05>> Okay.
13:06>> And um I'm I I want to play a one of these lowers on Ollie Gordon. Um the the rushing is is like a pretty
13:15simple way to play it, but I really want to do the receiving lower, I think. What do we >> What about What about What about 59 and
13:25a half rushing plus receiving. These are historically uh the these are ones that are a little overpriced
13:35because you the the the assumption is oh well I'm getting both.
13:39I'm getting I'm getting both dude. Like if he gets if he gets if he gets a screen pass but then if you I mean this
13:46is this is caveman math.
13:48But add up but add [snorts] up 49 and a half plus 14 and a half you're not getting you're not getting to
13:5460. So where are the extra yards coming from? Where where I'm asking you where where are the extra yards coming from to
14:02which to which the the devious sports books say don't pay attention to that.
14:08Don't worry kitten. Don't worry kitten.
14:10It's coming out it's coming out in the wash. I I actually that obviously that goes that goes very well with the with the
14:19moneyline. I mean you have a you actually do have multiple outs here which is that people forget two weeks ago or two games ago for the
14:26Dolphins against the Vikings Jaylen Jaylen Wright started the game.
14:31So you have you just have outs for for them deciding Ali Gordon doesn't have the hot hand and Jaylen Wright that I I
14:36mean I think that's a limited out but it's not like Ali Gordon is you know completely entrenched. And also they're just going to they're just going to be
14:43down in this game. I mean Ali can rip off a big play obviously.
14:48But yeah I and as I think this is I think this is actually quite a good angle. I'm with you.
14:52>> But before you play this there's something going on with the math.
14:56>> Yes. Yeah.
14:57>> I don't know if you're seeing it on your screen we're kind of covering it up but like what is your multiple what is your
15:02payout right here?
15:03>> One one point five eight X. It's because so I think if we keep clicking this will resolve itself.
15:10>> Okay. Okay. Well I'll I'll trust the process.
15:13>> I believe I believe that is how it works when we are when we are being predictors is that that will that will end that should end
15:22up resolving itself. If it doesn't, um we will have to fire it on mobile.
15:26>> just play this straight too. I don't know, but anyway >> Yeah, oh I I mean God for I well Dude, if Xavian Thomas would have got a
15:33catch yesterday, it would be like a it would be just a much brighter place in my world right now. No no shout out to
15:40to Ben Johnson for not scheming that up, but I'm I'm hip to that one. All right, we are going to head back to the menu
15:45here with Kate Otten 3.5 receptions and Ali Gordon lower than 59 and a half rushing yards and we are going to lock
15:53in to the New York Giants in the Houston Texans game. We have got Juwan Jordan out.
15:59We have got David Montgomery out. We have got Jaquavious Woody Marks in.
16:06We Oh my God, 17 Okay. Well, I was ready to take I was ready to take the higher on 14 and a half or 15 and a half. I don't
16:15know if I can do 17 and a half on Jaquavious Woody Marks. What if we just take anytime touchdown for Marks?
16:24>> I like I like that.
16:27>> I just like it's the Giants. The Giants are a below average below average defense. Um Jaquavious Woody Marks not a good
16:36player, but do you know who do you know who his backup is right now?
16:40You'll get you'll get six ball knower points if you know who the the practice squad running back that's getting called up is.
16:47>> So yeah, you said it's not Juwan Jordan.
16:49Any any >> It's not Jordan.
16:51Uh he went to the same college as me.
16:53He's also about the same height as me.
16:57>> Who is it?
16:58>> Deuce Vaughn.
16:59>> I was Why I actually just said Deuce Vaughn.
17:02>> Their their their backfield this week will be Woody Marks, Deuce Vaughn, and Dare Ogunbowale who has no rushes on the
17:09season. Dare. Yeah.
17:11>> Wow.
17:12>> Oops. Oops indeed. Um I feel I honestly I feel kind of good about whatever you want to do. They have
17:18a 27 point implied team total this week.
17:21If you wanted to take receptions, if you wanted to take targets in like really fantasy points honestly actually think is fine with with Woody. I've only done
17:30about 20 BRs, but if when I get more BRs in I will be jamming more Quez
17:41>> his What's his receiving He's got two and a half. I don't know.
17:45>> Two and a half is like two and a half is and and we're paying almost the exact same price for two and a half receptions
17:51as a touchdown.
17:53>> Yeah, and they're and they're throwing they're they are throwing a lot too.
17:56Let's just do the touchdown. I think they're going to be they're 10 they're they're 10 and a half point favorites here. Like and he is the running back.
18:05So let's do let's do that. Let's do the touchdown. I like it. I think it's a safe way to play it. I will say also
18:12man, I think it's like a desktop thing for the odds. I'm getting different odds on my phone. So I'm just that's why I'm
18:17kind of like on my phone right now. I'm playing along.
18:20>> That's fine. When you get it, will you send it to me so that I can also play this instead of
18:27I this we we have run into this on the Sunday show as well. There There must just be I I I bet Nez what it probably is is I
18:36bet they're like two separate feeds.
18:40Like the app feed is going to be different than whatever I'm seeing on because I mean let's just be all real
18:45about this. All these sites, any any any prediction market, they're optimizing for the app users. They They can't Like if I were if I were to go and talk to
18:55the team at UD right now and I was like oh yeah, I use your desktop site like 4 hours a day.
19:00>> this.
19:00>> They would be like this is like seeing a dinosaur. This is like this is like seeing this is like seeing someone pay
19:07with a check at the grocery store.
19:08Like we are very much the weird ones, the people who are are using the desktop. We are we're we're using AOL dial-up is is what the deal is.
19:18>> I need to get a work phone and just do like the mobile screen sharing, I think, and just and just completely pivot pivot
19:24the the meta.
19:26>> Well, I so I I mean obviously I used to be able to just fire whatever on my phone, but now my phone is my camera.
19:33>> Oh, that's what you do? Okay.
19:35>> Yes. So, I can't just like go run it on my phone very quickly is >> Nice.
19:41>> is the issue.
19:42>> Yeah.
19:43Yeah, so I'll I'll share once once this is finished. And yeah, I said the same thing. I'm like, "Man, desktops kind of a nightmare." And
19:49they're like, "Well, 99.9% of users are on the app, so >> Yeah, the people the people using the people using the desktop are me, you,
19:57John, and like maybe Zacharian every once in a while, and that's it. That's literally that's literally it.
20:04>> Yep.
20:05>> Uh all right, we've got Mark's touchdown, Gordon lower than 59 app rushing yards, K Dotton 3.5 receptions.
20:12Nez, I would like for you to take us home on this one.
20:16>> Okay. Um you know, let let me So, I wanted to do Jaylen Coker.
20:24>> Okay.
20:25>> And I it always kind of feels weird doing these like event >> that shouldn't ding our multiplier too much having
20:33>> It doesn't.
20:34>> K Dotton and and Coker together. Okay.
20:36>> It's not that big of a deal. So, when I played this one, this was like a 50/50.
20:41It gets us to like 7x, and if we did like just something from the Steelers or um like like George Kittle. Yeah, yeah.
20:52This is this is totally fine. So, I wanted to do and you can you can pivot if you want the the longest reception on
20:58Coker at 22 and 1/2.
21:01>> Okay.
21:02>> The other than the the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bucks have given up receptions greater than 22 and 1/2 in every game.
21:12Coker is just has a ridiculous like yards per target um already. So, this just kind of feels like something that he's going to to
21:21clear fairly easily. I just think due to the match up makes a a lot of good sense here. So, I just kind of wanted to just
21:27do this. We can maybe hit this on like the first drive and feel feel good about it. A nice green check.
21:34>> I actually I actually love that. One of the things that has been most surprising to me about the way the Panthers have
21:39executed their offense this year has been that Coker is like way better down the field. Every time there is a Bryce
21:45Young broken play, a Bryce Young scramble, like he's you know, he's vibing out there. It feels like it's always Coker is the recipient of that
21:53and never Terrace Marshall McMillan, which if I had been a big Terrace Marshall McMillan drafter would be really annoying to me.
22:00>> Yeah.
22:00>> Just kind of light on the Panthers overall. All right, so there we go. We are locked in Cade Otton higher than 3.5
22:08receptions, Ali Gordon lower than 59 and 1/2 rushing plus receiving yards, Woody Marks to score an anytime touchdown, Jaylen Coker higher 22 and 1/2 for his
22:17longest reception. Uh there's a move to change boost in the lobby. Um I always save the I always save the the 50%er for uh for
22:27Sunday cuz you never know what kind of a beautiful beautiful gems are going to be are going to be cooked then.
22:33>> Yeah.
22:34>> So, there we go.
22:35>> I sent this to Disc over Discord to you by the way.
22:38>> Beautiful. All right, I will play that and I will you know what? I will post the link to that in the chat and I will
22:45also save it to the um to the YouTube description so that you guys can lock that one in. Uh which one
22:52of these if if one of these sells us, which one is most likely to sell us, Nass?
22:57>> Uh probably probably Ali.
23:02>> Yeah. Yeah. That one it it's like it well, you know, you and I are I think it's I think it's people who are
23:09are fantasy first, right? Where we just have we're like, "Yeah, dude, but it's so easy to get yards. You just go get
23:16the yards, you know?" It's like obviously he just easily scored. Like obviously he just easily scored. Why why wouldn't he?
23:23>> Yeah. Of course.
23:25Yeah. Yeah.
23:26>> So there we go. We are we are are locked in to uh these are these are our responsible selections. We have Cade
23:33Otton who turns into Prieb Rom Gronkowski anytime Ihmir Smith-Marsette or Mike Evans uh are both off the field.
23:41Neither of them will be playing. Jaylen Coker longer than 22 and 1/2 for his longest reception in this game. Jaylen Coker the primary deep threat for the
23:52Carolina Panthers. Woody Marks as effectively the sole running back. I it's kind of crazy. You don't really get this all that often. Like even Hubbard
24:00or or whatever will give up some snaps to I was Etienne's little brother last week and and would not surprise me if Woody Marks is
24:09the only running back to get a touch in this game for the Houston Texans.
24:13>> Oh, yeah.
24:14>> Ollie Gordon to generate less than ooh >> Wait, yeah, that that that shouldn't that Did I Oh, no.
24:21>> Oh, no. Oh, no. Use the cash out. Use the cash out. You're still You're still within 2 minutes.
24:26>> That's trouble.
24:28>> That is trouble. That is trouble. There you go. Lower uh for um for Ollie Gordon >> It's a conspiracy.
24:36>> That is dude. They You know what that was, Nez? Your brain just like can't even comprehend clicking the lower. You
24:43were just like, "Oh, like I took over.
24:45I'm on my phone. I always click on the left side of this, not on the right side of this, because I always take a higher.
24:50I never take a lower."
24:52>> I'm going to send you a new link.
24:53Disregard that comment in the chat, guys. Don't don't that that link in the chat is is is is a Trojan horse.
25:00>> Dude.
25:01>> it's malware. Don't click it. Don't click it.
25:04>> That dude, we did you did you did just do you tried to steal someone's um NFTs.
25:09>> Yeah, I did. Yeah, you put in your seed phrase. You tried to select your New York Knicks championship ring. Turns
25:15out, you just enrolled yourself into a cybersecurity class, buddy.
25:19>> That was uh that was that was um frankly That was frankly uh that was frankly insane of you. All right, so we have the
25:26we have the correct link in the chat now. Have the correct link saved in the YouTube description. Now, uh let us let
25:33us fire some touchdowns, Ness. That's That's what we're going to do. We're going to do an eight-leg touchdown. We are going to do it as uh a flex. And I
25:41actually will use my boost um on this one. I'll use my 40% boost. I'll save my 50% boost. Uh where
25:51would you like to go?
25:54>> Um are we trying to stay main slate?
25:58>> You can do whatever you want. You can do whatever you want. You can fire Sunday night. You can fire Monday night. If you
26:02want to take Jeremy Bernard on Sunday morning to celebrate um you know, the the the the beautiful existence of Jeremy Bernard on your favorite football
26:11team. Dude, this never happens. This is actually crazy, Ness. This never happens to me.
26:17Your team played a guy 44% of the snaps who I did not know. Who I'd never heard of. Didn't know where he went to
26:25college. Didn't know where he came from.
26:26Didn't realize he was on the practice squad. Their wide receiver three in that game against the Buccaneers was a guy named Brandon Smith.
26:33Who I never heard of him.
26:36In fact, let's go find this out right now. Brandon Smith of the Steelers. Um he was born in 1998.
26:44>> Wow.
26:45>> He uh came from the DC Defenders.
26:51Two-time two-time DC Defender. He attended the uh the University of Iowa.
26:55Um he was undrafted at a 2020 in 2021.
26:59To today I learned about about Brandon Smith. Never would have Never would have known. Never would have guessed.
27:06>> Con- congrats to Brandon Smith for officially being an NFL wide receiver.
27:11>> Shout out Shout out to him, man. Shout out to him. Shout out to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
27:14>> That's incredible.
27:17>> Yeah. Poor poor Ben Skowronek. Dude, how many guys would have to get injured for Caden Wetjen to get an offensive snap?
27:24>> [laughter] >> And then you're asking.
27:26>> I'm I'm asking. I'm I'm I'm I'm certainly asking. Uh all right, I will I will go ahead and begin us here and I
27:33will just take uh the freest money that anyone has ever freed. If you don't have Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown against his former team in a revenge game at
27:43Seattle, if you don't have this in everything you play, uh I'm sorry, dude, you have no mojo. You don't get how You
27:50don't get how the game works. Kenneth Walker, I mean, he might score two, might score three, but he's for sure scoring one.
27:57>> Yeah, there's nothing been more set in stone than Ken Walker scoring in scoring a touchdown in Seattle. Um >> Yeah, like like when they put this game
28:06on the schedule, DraftKings actually DraftKings and Underdog and these companies actually had to add more to their player reserve funds because they knew that this was
28:16going to be a massive liability. Like when when they did their research, they were like It actually changed the financial forecast. I I heard this came
28:23up in the Underdog sale.
28:25That the the that the buyers were like, "Oh, [ __ ] So, there's Ken Walker There's this Ken Walker payout that's
28:32happening in October. What like what's like the contingency for that?" And then Jeremy and the guys were like, "No, no, trust me. Like we planned for this. Like
28:38it's okay. Like we're >> Yeah, we got we got we got a sick product coming out where it's going to generate a bunch of money. We're going
28:42to be all right.
28:43>> Yeah, real [ __ ] Uh so, Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks.
28:48>> Yeah, we're you you read my mind. We're putting Jeremy Bernard in here, too.
28:52>> I do buddy buddy, I I came back I came back from the future. I actually came back from France and and they told me
28:59they told me it was lit. They said they said they said Jeremy Bernard, dude, he's lit.
29:05>> He is.
29:05>> And as of right now, this is working on on my desktop, by the way.
29:09>> Yeah, you get you get Yeah, I see five 5.6x. That's That's >> I believe so if any of you are like Nez
29:17and I stuck in the Stone Age, just like bashing rocks together, um I believe if you use all the same statistical category,
29:27it works.
29:28>> Okay.
29:29>> Yes.
29:30>> Yeah, so we should have an easy time here. That's good.
29:32>> don't now don't quote me on that cuz I got to click a button six more times to make it happen, but
29:37uh we're we're we're going we're going here. Now Now, Nez, uh it is National Tight End Week. I don't know I don't
29:44know if you've I don't know if you've heard of this. Um I'm going to go I'm going to go off the board here. I I'm
29:49I'm going to say a name that I don't think you're ready to hear. Uh I want to see what the price is on Isaiah Likely
29:55to score an Okay, never mind. It's Well, no, 1.7. So so uh that's that's priced like the old fantasy.
30:02You see you get that you get that every once in a while. It's not the new 1.7x.
30:06That's the old 1.7x.
30:08>> Yeah.
30:09>> That's the old multiplier.
30:11What do you What do you think on that?
30:12You in? You out? Is that It's not a great price, but also at the same time, Isaiah Likely is averaging 18.5 fantasy
30:18points per game. Would be the would be the wide receiver seven were he eligible at wide receiver. Uh seems good.
30:26>> I I believe in J.J. McCarthy.
30:29Let's Let's Let's play this. These guys, they're going to be trailing.
30:33They want to see what they got in J.J.
30:35And I mean, I'm actually quite frankly surprised it's 1.7x cuz they're going to be chucking. So to be chucking. They're going to be chucking
30:44in in this game.
30:45>> Yeah, to to what efficiency is another is another question for another day.
30:50>> if what if what if he's him though?
30:52>> Like I think he who JJ?
30:55>> Yes.
30:56>> So I think JJ I think the JJ Bulls definitely ran like Uber bad.
31:02Um >> JJ playing in the same stadium he won the natty.
31:07>> And I think wow, that's actually that's crazy. He's going to be in his element. So I think that the the the route trees for Likely
31:15and Neighbors actually work out really well for JJ. I'm not even like kidding.
31:20I think KSU tried to give JJ too many layups and he just throws too [ __ ] hard.
31:24>> He literally throws too hard for layups, dude.
31:26>> Yeah, so like these are actually like the type of routes where he can cook.
31:30And they're going to have to take deep shots.
31:32Uh yeah, no I I I actually I I do really like that multiplier for anytime touchdown.
31:38>> Yeah. All right. Beautiful beautiful.
31:40All right. Kenneth Walker, Jermaine Bernard, Isaiah Likely.
31:44Where where would you like to go next, Mr. Nez?
31:48>> A number that I think would maybe shock you. Uh what speaking of National Tight End Day, what do you think Kittle's price is?
31:57>> Uh it should be minus 20,000. So whatever that'd be 1.01X the new Dog App pricing. I'm going to
32:06guess he's priced at like minus 140-ish.
32:09So that should be like 1.58X the way Dog App does it now.
32:16>> Yeah, let's find out.
32:17>> We're going to find out. George slight positive multiplier for George Kittle.
32:23Hey, say say less. Again. Again. Uh you know, this is this feels like a honeypot.
32:30>> Honestly. I know. [laughter] >> Like this feels like they know something I don't know.
32:34>> I I I fully agree. And you know, I mean like I almost want to like hurry up.
32:41>> Well, well this is why it's weird because normally Kittle's lines are like four and a half receptions 54 and a half yards.
32:50>> Right.
32:51>> But like a pretty good touchdown number because he's George Kittle and that's what he does. His touchdown number is kind of unchanged, but his receptions
32:58and his receiving yards are juiced.
33:01>> It's crazy.
33:02>> It's it's fishy. It's fishy.
33:05>> I'm being I'm being I'm being catfished by George Kittle.
33:08But I I'm going to take it. All right, Kenneth Walker, Jerion Brown, Isaiah Likely, George Kittle for our anytime touchdowns. I I really like that one.
33:17Now do you want to take the layup with the big dog?
33:22>> Hmm.
33:24How how >> waste one of our valuable spots with the big dog?
33:28>> Let me see what it's Yeah, it's worth it. We get we get a quite a boost by adding him.
33:33>> Okay, done. We are at 42 x right now and that takes us from 42 x to 62.4 x. Yeah, and again
33:44I mean it just it these are these are fait accompli. There's just you know sometimes there's just nothing you can do about it. Henry is going to cash in
33:51on this touchdown against against a version of a Bengals team that like oh they think they're really good right now. They're riding high. They our
33:58defense is good now. Yeah, sure it is.
34:00Sure it is, brother.
34:02Sure it is.
34:03All right, Henry we got five now. So two more for you.
34:11>> Yeah, so curious which Packers receiver do you feel more confident in scoring? Golden or or Watson?
34:19>> I mean it's it's assuredly like they're going to run more red zone plays for for Watson.
34:28But I just I just think Golden's better, dude. I just think he's I I like I it's maybe my worst opinion and it's my
34:34opinion that people get the most angry about this year is that I won't change my mind about um about Golden being better than Watson.
34:45>> I mean Golden I I think I think you're right. Like Christian Watson I don't think has like the full route tree that Golden like surprisingly
34:53has and >> Mhm.
34:55>> Golden is so good. He is just like I mean he is he's like a very special player.
35:01He kind of looks like what I hope Jordan Addison can be like with when he's on the field. Like just like that level of
35:08athleticism and like the way he you know his point point of catch is like super impressive. I mean it's kind of insane that this guy
35:15didn't work out last year. It's like what the hell actually happened. So let's do Golden. He's actually a higher multiplier, too.
35:23>> I love it. It you know what? Like retroactively it actually is insane that Golden didn't work out last year because
35:29it's kind of hard for wide receivers to start playing a lot, then stop playing, then reinvent themselves as like a
35:38legitimate like top 15 wide receiver in the league. Like the the late breakout wide receivers you can point at like Tyler Lockett, Davante
35:47Adams. These guys were asked from the jump. They didn't play, >> right?
35:51>> Yeah. It's it's very strange to see playing time up, playing time down, then back up really really good. Like that is
35:58that is an anomalous way um that it goes.
36:01>> Yeah, it's bizarre.
36:02>> I'm going to take another layup. Um I I'm surprised that this one is even that they're actually even doing it. I'm just
36:08going to take Chuba Hubbard to score an anytime touchdown. I I mean I feel like his like when I do my BRs, I'm like
36:14okay, well I start with one touchdown in my lineup when I get Chuba Hubbard. I know the Buccaneers like do have this
36:20like good run defense or whatever.
36:22They're Vita Vea the the run fun. I don't give a [ __ ] dude. And neither do the Panthers, by the way.
36:28They're playing against the Eagles last week and it's like, all right, second and two, third and one, fourth and one.
36:33Like, let's just keep giving the ball to Chuba. Let's just keep like, all right, hey man, Chuba, you feeling good? You
36:38got you you good with 25 rushes in this game against the Eagles? You good to just jam your body into Jalen Carter?
36:46Good to go, sir. Good to go, sir. Yeah, shout out shout out to Chuba Hubbard, man. We are at a >> Chuba.
36:51>> 234 X'er. So, why don't you just take us to Valhalla here with your with your final pick?
36:57>> Oh my god. All right, we got we got to add one more to this thing. Uh >> We don't I we don't have to. If you want
37:02to call it good at at 234 X, I'm cool with that.
37:08>> Trying to think what I would even want to add. I mean, I don't even see Bijan. Just like trying to think something that's like a little
37:17little cozier.
37:18>> Well, McCaffrey, right?
37:20>> Yeah.
37:22Yeah, what what's Yeah, Bijan's like 70 >> Yeah, that's good.
37:25>> If we add if we add McCaffrey, we get to a 312 X.
37:29>> Do you want to do like is McCaffrey and choose I mean that's okay.
37:35McCaffrey and Kittle is like okay with you?
37:38>> Oh, yeah.
37:39>> Okay.
37:40>> I to me, I feel like the McCaffrey touchdown is so unrelated to anything else that happens. Do you do you Like do
37:45you know what I mean? Like it's just so obviously he's scoring a 1-yard touchdown.
37:49>> Yeah.
37:50>> Yeah.
37:51>> Yeah, you're right.
37:52>> Maybe that's crazy. All right, $10 on this one will win you 3,100 and $15.
38:00So, I would encourage you uh if you are interested in in sweating with us on Sunday and having a little bit of fun, uh you can you can go ahead
38:08and rock with us.
38:10The eight best touchdown bets this weekend, Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown, that is a mortal certainty.
38:18Jeremy Bernard to score anytime touchdown, the best wide receiver on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Isaiah Likely playing with JJ McCarthy in the stadium
38:25that he won a natty, lock it up. George Kittle on national tight end day and you're fading Derrick Henry against the
38:32Cincinnati Bengals. This guy was put on this earth to score touchdowns in AFC North divisional games. Matthew Golden, the best wide receiver on the Packers,
38:40highest total of the weekend. We're getting plus odds on a Matthew Golden touchdown. Chuba Hubbard anytime touchdown. He is the sun, the moon, and
38:48the stars of the Panthers offense. And Christian McCaffrey, 1-yard touchdowns are what he does at this stage in his life. It's beautiful. It's beautiful. We
38:57absolutely We absolutely cooked here, sir.
38:59>> I like I like these a lot. I like these a lot. I mean, we're This is basically just like We're basically hoping Jeremy
39:05and and and Isaiah Likely and and Golden score.
39:09>> Yes. Yeah. Yeah, because Walker is obvious, right?
39:13>> Yeah.
39:13>> And Kittle is obvious, Henry's obvious, Hubbard's obvious, and McCaffrey's obvious. You're You're so so right. Now, Nez, >> Mhm.
39:20>> update me.
39:22Where are you at in your in your survivor journey?
39:26>> Uh >> [sighs and gasps] >> so, I picked the Panthers against the Browns, um which is like was such the such a
39:33correct pick.
39:34>> Yeah.
39:35>> And I didn't get And I And I did not get bailed out uh for that, which was really upsetting cuz the Panthers are good. Uh
39:42>> That is so upsetting.
39:44>> But, you know, it is what it is. I am in a home survivor league, though, and I'm one of like
39:4812 people left. And that's for like 3K, so we're We got a little bit of a sweat there.
39:55>> Yeah.
39:55>> Um >> I love that.
39:56>> Yeah.
39:57>> Uh All right, before we get into survivor, need to remind you guys that Live Line IQ sponsoring the show. Uh
40:04I've actually I've actually really enjoyed this. I mean, it is exactly what it sounds like. They trained an LLM on uh millions and millions and millions of
40:12like real-life play-by-play stuff, and it just works to find I mean, granted, these edges are like micro edges and you have to be on your phone and you have to
40:20be ready to fire. Um but they actually launched a new program this week, which is that if you are a live better and
40:27want to share your picks, it functions um kind of the same way as the Action Network app. They They have like a new
40:35uh a new program to you know, basically like you can share your You can share your picks on the app. You can DM them on Twitter at
40:42LiveLineIQ or email them at appsupport@liveliniq for free pro access, which is nice. So, if any of you guys want free access to
40:51the app for a little bit, you can send them an email and then they have the new uh AI uh bolt alert. So, this actually works
40:58very similar to Gambly. So, you basically say like, "Hey, uh I want to know when uh game total above 50 and a
41:07half is pacing to go, you know, four points under or whatever." And then even if it even if it's not an edge inside of their system,
41:15it will still send you the alert. This is obviously a little bit more useful for NBA because football you can kind of
41:21monitor everything that's going on, but NBA is happening very, very quickly. Um they're so they just started doing the NBA product like a couple days ago and I
41:30just set this up for myself yesterday and haven't thought of any angles. So, if you guys have any angles you want me
41:36to check, let me know and uh there's a link down in the description you get 40% off your first month with my link and my
41:43code Nez.
41:45I have something embarrassing to admit about Survivor, which is that I lost not one, not two, not three, but four entries on the Los Angeles Rams last
41:56week, which was a [ __ ] pick to begin with.
41:59>> No, it wasn't.
42:00>> No, no, it really was because it was such J Mac It was such J Mac energy of me. Like, why not just take the biggest
42:07favorite? I I something that I think is is kind of inexcusable is when you lose with a team that is also the most owned
42:16of the week. Like I feel like losing a survivor entry with the most owned team of the week is just like, you have no
42:22mojo, dude. You're mojoless. Your mojo is on Your mojo is on absolute zero. Um if that happens. I It just It felt
42:31really, really bad. And a part of the reason why it felt really, really bad was that I had the right read on the
42:39shitty team to use uh because I took two Panthers anyway. Like I had the right read on the Panthers never, ever, ever,
42:47ever, ever lose this game.
42:50>> Yeah.
42:50>> What am I do It It was bad, man. It was bad. It was not ideal.
42:54>> Don't don't beat yourself up. Like I know the hindsight analysis you you don't want to like I I I respect the
43:01humility, but like that that was like that was a really good pick and that is like it is it is absurd the way that
43:06this Ram season's gone. They lost at home. That's two touchdowns. Like >> They lost at home.
43:11>> The last time this happened that I can remember recall is like Josh Allen doing it to the Vikings and he was like a
43:16rookie or something.
43:17>> It was It was his second year. The Vi- It was week two. The Vikings were 14 and 1/2 point favorites and they lost
43:24outright. I have I have have deep memories of that one. Um we were on the So my buddy and I who were in a survivor
43:30pool then, we were on the other side though. We We did not have uh we did not have the Vikings that time and it was a
43:35it was a beautiful, beautiful moment.
43:37>> Oh. Yeah, that was probably one of the biggest wipeouts ever.
43:40>> It It It was It was completely insane.
43:42So this week your your options in terms of like stone stone faves are the Texans and the Vikings. Those are favorites by
43:49more than a touchdown. The Texans are at home. The uh the Vikings are at home.
43:53They both have implied win probability above 70%.
43:58I think a lot of people I actually think the consensus ownership here is wrong on Run The Sims or at least will be
44:04adjusted as we get closer to kick. I think a lot of people, Nez, are going to want to go with the Vikings, not with
44:10the Texans, because the Vikings are I mean I look, you and I are both on them this week, but I think we can admit they
44:16are a little bit Fugazi, but just a little bit. I don't think they're I don't think they're terrible or anything like that. And the Texans play in a
44:25division with the Titans. Now, they don't play them until week 18, but the the Texans also get to play the Browns,
44:32they get to play the Chargers, they get to play the Colts.
44:36Um they get to play the Commanders who might not have Jaden Daniels by then.
44:39Whereas Minnesota, listen to this murderers' row that Minnesota has. At Detroit, Buffalo, at Green Bay, international game, San Francisco, home to Atlanta, you can maybe pick them
44:51then.
44:52Home to Carolina, who's favored in that game when we get there?
44:58>> Vikings, for sure.
45:00>> Home Yeah, not by much though. It'll be It'll be close. Then they go at New England, uh home Detroit, home Commanders, at
45:08Jets, home Chicago. So, they're they're favored four times?
45:15Four times as as like really, really strong picks there?
45:19>> It's tough. I mean, they're in a they're in a really tough division, right? And and they have a really tough
45:23interdivisional schedule like you just laid out. So, yeah, I guess my thing is how many how much of the field is going
45:29to have Minnesota left? They were such a popular pick a couple weeks ago.
45:32>> a popular pick. Yeah. No, you're right.
45:34Um are you in the uh uh so so me, Peter, and Dave are in the Revival on Splash, the the $5 million prize pool Revival.
45:44And we are taking the Vikings for this one just like LOL, no way they lose type type beat. Um but there are
45:55a lot of double pick weeks, like a lot.
45:5812, 13, 14, 15, 16 are all double pick weeks. So, anytime you start to expand the amount of double pick weeks, the
46:08greater your incentive to do something funky, right? I mean, that's just that's just how it goes.
46:14Not just because I and I don't know how you think about this in Survivor, but kind of the way that I think about
46:21it is you are trying to protect yourself from the unknown vagaries of quarterback injuries, basically, is how it works.
46:29Like the the best laid plans of mice and men are ruined by Lamar Jackson twisting his ankle or Mahomes getting a boo-boo
46:36or you know, whatever, whatever, you know, because those guys are worth so much against the spread. So, the more wins you can bank with [ __ ] ass teams,
46:47the more valuable your entry is, in my opinion, which is a long way of saying can I interest you in the New York
46:53Football Jets?
46:57>> Yeah, I like them a lot. Um I mean, I took them in our in the in the spread at the start of the show.
47:05Uh yeah, I I think that that's totally fair.
47:07Uh I can't I mean, I haven't I haven't done the the schedule analysis on the Jets, but they will play Miami again,
47:14obviously, right? This is this is only the first time meeting.
47:16>> And it is and it is a double pick week.
47:18It's at Miami in week 12, and then they have a bye week 13. So, so so in terms of and and really you would not want to
47:25take them Now that they're So, now that their week 12 is in most pools like a double pick week, um knowing that that they play Miami again,
47:35maybe you do save them, actually.
47:39>> Yeah, I'm I'm So, you know, Crutch is obviously a huge grinder for Survivor.
47:44Same with Texans, they'll have any other usable weeks. I mean, they do play the Chargers and I and I'm pretty confident
47:50the Chargers are >> Yeah, I was going to say I was going to say uh real real man, you know, J Mac employed
47:57the whoever plays the dolphin strategy, why not employ whoever plays the Chargers strategy? The charge This is okay. Chargers rest of season. Um
48:05they're on a bye week this week. They're seven point dogs to the Rams, three point dogs to the Texans, touchdown dogs
48:12to the Ravens.
48:13The Jets get to play the Chargers. Now, that that's a good one, dude. That right there, if you're a sick freak who wants
48:22to play the Jets against the Chargers, you have my ultimate ultimate um respect. Then New England, then Tampa Bay, then the Raiders. Dude, an 0 and 17
48:31season from the Chargers would straight up like it would bring me a lot of joy.
48:36Like I I would be so I would be so hip to an 0 and 17 season for uh for the Los
48:41Angeles Chargers. That would be beautiful to me.
48:44>> [laughter] >> It'd be poetic, really. I mean, like just the most Chargers thing ever.
48:51>> I It's I How is How is McDaniels not fired?
48:55>> Because he's going to be I mean, it's Listen, here here's here's what I'm here's my my thing, right? I think
49:03McDaniels is like super annoying.
49:06I think I think but I don't think that he's like a fake sharp.
49:09And I do think that the Chargers have like another year of like a wrath of injuries again. So, we're I'm tired of making excuses for
49:17the Chargers, but they are like mad banged up for sure.
49:21And I also think Harbaugh's like a terrible coach.
49:24>> He is. He is. He is. He is.
49:26>> So, I think you like you wave bye-bye to him and then you just promote McDaniels and just give it one more shot, but like with more
49:34control.
49:35I mean, the dude made Tua an MVP candidate.
49:40You got to just like give it a shot.
49:43You got to give it a shot, I think.
49:45He's in the building.
49:48>> That's true. That's true. Also, I mean, it is it is worth uh it is worth noting there's like I mean just for for overall
49:56weirdness stuff is like I I wouldn't say it's a mortal lock that this Saint Steelers game gets played just while we're while we're thinking through
50:05this. Some of the some of the soccer games in Paris have been canceled.
50:09>> Dude, the the NFL's going to send the [ __ ] line.
50:11>> I was going to say I as I was going to say as I'm saying it like literally like there are there are
50:18green berets like like ready to line the outside of the stadium.
50:22If you [clears throat] guys dare mess with the National Football League expanding the global game, like you better you better be ready cuz it's not
50:29going to be pretty.
50:30>> there there's a dozen robo dogs with Gatling guns like ready to go.
50:34>> Okay. I just I just saw that some of the soccer games this weekend got canceled. So, I think this is what I'm doing. I think in the
50:425K where or the five the five million I where I just can't possibly eat an owl week one. Can't can't do it. I'm taking the
50:52Vikings, I think. That's my that's my thought.
50:55>> I I I I've no problem with it.
50:58I've no problem with it. I mean, it's there's so many different, you know, uh schools of thought with with survivor, but
51:06I've no problem taking the Vikings here.
51:08This this is Yeah, you know.
51:11I I I I think it's fine.
51:13>> in in this pool, my I used all my I used so much Texans against the against the Titans. I I want
51:21to get a I don't have to get nearly as weird. Well, there're a lot of there're a lot of entries left in this one. A
51:27thousand entries actually is kind of crazy.
51:30Like 40% of the pool is still here after two weeks given the degree to which the wipeouts were cuz there were there were
51:38crazy wipeouts. Obviously, there were two there were Well, actually, the crazy thing was there were two big wipeouts last week cuz there was the Colts, too.
51:48>> That's right.
51:49>> and the Rams, so two two massive wipeouts.
51:51>> Yeah, yeah, it was it was that's yeah, it was it was a nuts week.
51:55>> All right, final answer.
51:57Final answer for me this week, Vikings are are my top equity play even more so than the Houston Texans. I I This is how
52:05bad things are for the Colts right now.
52:08I think J.J. McCarthy is more likely for a Scott Hanson cut-in. Can you believe it? Look at this, folks. We never They
52:17the the Giants came in as 10 and 1/2 point dogs. We go to the game in the fourth quarter. McCarthy completes a
52:23touchdown pass to Isaiah Likely to complete the eight-leg parlay for Nance and Davis. It's unbelievable. They they the Giants are trailing. C.J. Stroud is
52:32crying on the sideline, folks.
52:34>> [laughter] >> I mean, that's so much That's so much more live than And Daniel Jones, calm under pressure, delivers a strike to Mo
52:42Alie-Cox.
52:43>> Yeah, it's Mo Alie-Cox.
52:46Notable for some of you fantasy managers out there.
52:49>> [laughter] >> Ty No Tyler Warren, no problem.
52:54>> [laughter] >> So much So much more live. McCarthy It It's so much more I just I just don't even think the Colts are capable, dude.
53:02The the Colts path here is that Kyler is actively like detonating himself in front of our face.
53:10That's the only That's the path. The path is Kyler makes four of the worst quarterback plays you've ever seen in your life.
53:17>> Yeah, like a pick-six.
53:20>> Like Like maybe two. Like maybe two Like maybe And and and like uh I mean, look, the the the Vikings were like live to
53:28like maybe lose that Dolphins game.
53:31Like they weren't really because the Dolphins couldn't score, but Ali Gordon rips off that 60-yard run, they score that drive, and Kyler is just
53:39like checking down to T.J. Hockenson and checking down to T.J. Hockenson and checking down to T.J. Hockenson. So, like I'm not saying that this is like
53:47the goated play of all time. I do think it is interesting. Now, I wanted to take the Jets on these other two teams. The issue with
53:56taking the Jets is the double the double buy stuff. I I got another one to float out to you.
54:03>> Okay.
54:04>> The Denver Football Broncos >> Yeah.
54:06>> who also play the Dolphins in week 13.
54:11I guess it's the Dolphins are the bogey man, dude. You just you it's like you you plan your you plan your whole
54:16existence around Malik Willis continuing to [ __ ] up. It is very funny. I don't I I think I only half-heartedly believe
54:23that one. And then the Rams are another funny one where they might not have Puka.
54:27>> Yeah.
54:28>> But like if the Rams don't win this game, like that's blouses.
54:32It's over. Game season season over.
54:35Like we're seeing Ty Simpson out here.
54:39>> It's it it I know. Like their season's like hanging on by a thread, for sure.
54:44Um I like the Broncos.
54:47I think that you just like you just play play Broncos against uh against the Cardinals, man. I mean, I know that it's like
54:57pretty bad, obviously, with the the offense that we've seen with with Denver this season. Um you know, they they're >> No, dude, but this is this is the
55:08get-right spot.
55:10This is the I'm calling I'm I'm I'm Babe Ruth. I'm pointing the fence. Jaylen Waddle eight receptions, 112 yards and a tud
55:19this week.
55:20Calling it. Calling my shot.
55:22>> No, I I mean, I love it. Uh Denver defense isn't even without um Surtain, they've still been pretty solid.
55:32>> And Surtain Surtain was um he practiced last week, so I think he Oh, nice. I think he will be okay.
55:38>> I'm going to I'm going to take Denver in my home league.
55:43>> All right, dude. I'm I'm hip. I think there's like one of the things that we sort of get wrong about NFL
55:49NFL analysis is when teams and players are so so bad, it's almost because football doesn't lend itself to like large sample size analysis very
56:01well cuz the samples are so small. We're just like, yeah, Bo Nix is the goat or the wote. He's he's goat
56:08in the sense of how the word goat used meant as in you're literally a goat.
56:11Like you're the worst you're the worst of all time.
56:15I think it's far more likely that the truth is between Bo Nix as the biggest check-down Charlie in the history of
56:22football, literally 701 out of 701 and A dot, and whoever he was last year when they made the AFC Conference Championship game. I think the truth is
56:30probably in between those two. That works for us this week. So, the best survivor picks this week in week seven, I'm going number one
56:39Minnesota Vikings. Number two, Nez? I'm actually going New York Jets.
56:44I'm going New York Jets because I just think lol, no way they lose. They are so much better of a team. I'm going Vikings
56:50three for the chalk factor, and I'm going Broncos four because sweating the Broncos is going to make me sick to my
56:56stomach in this game. I know every 1.7 yd like rush from JK Dobbins, I'm just going to be like, enough. And then I'm
57:05going to watch Bo Nix pass the ball and I'm going to be like, all right, enough.
57:07I don't I don't actually need to see that either. I got to turn this off. I got to go read a book or do something
57:11else.
57:12>> It will be a gross sweat, I think, for sure. But, uh I think they can just like I think they can they can just win this
57:18game though. It'll be It'll be a gross boring game. Um but, yeah, I think they'll be able to to hold it down. I I
57:23agree with all that. It is like a tough week, like I said off the top, only two teams I think favored by a touchdown or
57:29more, so um there is this is likely to be a pretty sweaty week for survivor.
57:35>> Yeah, I love it. We will be back next week hopefully with a bunch of live entries. Nez will be on DFS Fridays on
57:42and off the clock this afternoon with Peter in what an hour and a half from now.
57:46>> Yeah, yeah, something like that.
57:48>> go check that out and uh, make sure like the video, subscribe the channel and I will be back with you guys
57:54real soon.
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