The Best Week 7 NFL DFS Plays

Completely off the board for DFS this week because his price does not reflect Jordan Mason's return to the backfield; the pricing has not adjusted for the usage shift.

Returning from injury this week at $4,500; will split targets with Omar Cooper Jr.; both receivers must split approximately eight targets between them, creating uncertainty about target allocation and fantasy upside.

Pierce was given significant contract money by the Colts but doesn't play anymore, representing a poor allocation of resources that limited the team's ability to build a competitive roster around Daniel Jones.

St. Brown becomes an insanely good leverage play if Gibbs' ownership is as low as projected (18%). His value is enhanced by the expectation that most players will be concentrated on Gibbs in the high-total Packers–Lions game.

Baker Mayfield returned to practice and is expected to be back in the lineup this week; Davis Mattek notes this is huge for Bucky Irving's checkdown opportunities and offensive efficiency, as Mayfield will reduce defensive pressure on the run game and provide checkdown targets that Jaylen Daniels avoids.

Knight has taken over Jeremiah Love's backfield role and played so well that he will retain a significant share of snaps even when Love returns. This strong performance makes both Knight and Love unplayable in the short term, as Knight will receive the bulk of the work and Love will be limited to ceremonial snaps.

Complete jam play against Miami; gets all running back goal line touches and almost all running back receiving; incredible matchup; will be extremely owned but ownership does not make him a bad play in DFS sim era; price is not rising high enough relative to his volume; every-lineup style player; gets a million touches.

Brandon Cooks is more of a deep threat than a target volume guy and is probably even more washed than Christian Kirk, limiting his appeal as a pass-catcher option in the 49ers-Falcons game. Davis Mattek explicitly fades Cooks for Week 7 DFS and would not play him or other secondary receivers in the Falcons stack, preferring Kirk Cousins as the only secondary option worth considering given the expensive nature of stacking around Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey.

The Jets employ a rotational run-back system where they cycle between Breece Hall and Isaiah Davis in blocks of carries; Davis Mattek describes a pattern where Hall gets five consecutive runs, then Davis gets three runs, then Hall returns for five more runs. Carries are split approximately 73 between Hall and Davis, with this rotational approach limiting individual back upside and consistent with their game script philosophy of long, run-heavy drives.

DFS value at $6,100 on DraftKings with strong snap rate; coming off 81% snap rate game with 61-9 snap split over Kenneth Gainwell; very interesting spot as Gainwell has underperformed despite significant contract investment. Expected to benefit from Baker Mayfield's return to lineup, which will add 2-3 additional checkdowns on top of 4-5 weekly targets and screens; currently limited by Jaylen Daniels' aversion to checking down. Davis Mattek identifies Irving as the only player with real upside on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense, which lacks gas outside of him.

Carnell Tate has target shares above 25% in four of his six games and his aDOT is rising; Davis Mattek is 'Tate curious' this week because ownership will be condensed at wide receiver, making any player with theoretical upside for a 27-yard touchdown in a lightly projectable way interesting. The source does not expect Tate to be heavily owned, creating value in DFS.

Chase Brown offers DFS upside if you're brave enough to plant your flag on him for Week 7; Davis Mattek suggests he could get paid because he has shown the ability to produce in the past, implying recent performance or role changes have created opportunity for a breakout game. He's a contrarian play with significant upside if Lamar plays; has historical precedent of performing well in similar situations. If the Ravens game becomes high-scoring, Brown benefits from potential comeback mode all game, making him a more attractive play despite not being chalk.

One of the worst players in the National Football League this season; best game is 3 catches for 46 yards; saw 29 targets in three games with Jaylen Daniels but converted only 98 yards on those 29 targets, indicating severe inefficiency and lack of juice on the team. Davis Mattek attributes this partly to quarterback play and the Buccaneers' lack of offensive weapons (Kadarius Toney had 41 routes and 1 target), making Godwin not a great fantasy option.

Kirk is being promoted off IR this week at $3,600 and Davis Mattek's interest depends entirely on ownership levels. If Kirk is not heavily owned, he could be a fine play given the Falcons' dire receiving situation (Brandon Cooks is a deep threat not a volume guy, Jordan Watkins had only 3% target per throw rate). However, Kirk faces obvious paths to failure: he's coming off an 8-week calf strain, had 4.8 yards per target last year on Houston, and could see limited snaps with Jordan Watkins and Brandon Cooks getting primary reps. Mattek's base assumption is that Kirk is terrible, though he did have a 30-point fantasy game in the postseason against Houston last year.

McCaffrey has a base projection of 26 points for Week 7 against Atlanta and Davis Mattek recommends playing him in every lineup, viewing him as a complete jam despite the Falcons' high team total (50.5 points) that will draw heavy usage to both McCaffrey and Gibbs. McCaffrey finally has a game where he's super involved in the passing game after limited involvement earlier in the season; ownership has completely flipped from being underowned relative to Bejon Robinson to now overowned, but Mattek remains open-minded to playing him despite the ownership shift, noting that one week of heavy passing involvement may not represent a permanent role change.

Chuba Hubbard is a DFS play at $6,700 with Christian McCaffrey-like role and Jalen Gibbs-level usage; Davis Mattek notes he is consistently getting the ball with 2.5-yard carries and the pricing gap between him and Bucky Irving effectively delineates projection difference. Positive outlook assuming Baker Mayfield plays.

Playing significantly worse than last year, accounting for over 50% of the Colts' offensive decline; the source argues the Colts' 2026 offseason mistake was overpaying Jones instead of building around a strong roster with a cheap QB. The overpayment forced the team to lose Michael Pittman Jr. and replace him with aging Keenan Allen, and lose multiple defensive players they couldn't afford to replace. The source speculates that a healthy Kyler Murray would have produced better results with the same supporting cast.

Debo Samuel is out for the 49ers-Falcons game, creating target volume questions for the 49ers passing game.

Demarcus Robinson is out for the 49ers-Falcons game, creating target volume questions for the 49ers passing game.

Super fun play if Lamar Jackson plays; becomes playable in high-scoring Ravens game scenario; would not be recommended with Huntley at QB due to insufficient raw rushing volume; benefits from game-stacking upside if Lamar is active.

Dylan Samson, the 2024 SEC Offensive Player of the Year, is positioned to take over passing work if both he and Tony Judkins are active; Davis Mattek suggests Samson would snatch the passing-down work that Judkins was receiving before his ankle injury, giving Samson upside in a backup role.

Great matchup against Miami Dolphins, but volume concerns exist due to Jets' run-heavy offensive philosophy; the source questions what the actual target volume will be given the team's commitment to the run game.

Isaiah Davis is part of the Jets' rotational run-back committee with Breece Hall; Davis Mattek projects the carries will be split approximately 73 between Hall and Davis, with Davis getting inserted for short blocks of three carries before being rotated out for Hall's next set of five carries. This rotational approach limits individual back upside.

TE is artificially underpriced on DraftKings due to the tight end pricing algorithm; if he were priced as a wide receiver based on his target volume, he would cost 6,500 instead of 5,300 or whatever his current price is. This pricing inefficiency makes him a strong DFS value play in what projects as a double tight end week; Davis Mattek notes he will suffer consequences from JJ McCarthy's expected poor performance, but the pricing advantage still makes him playable.

Starting QB for Giants is expected to regress significantly from his fourth-quarter performance against New Orleans; Davis Mattek is only 4% confident in McCarthy's ability to replicate that success and expects him to underperform, making him a fade for DFS despite acknowledging a scenario where Houston's lead forces Giants into pass-heavy mode.

Davis Mattek will not play Dobbins this week; he has played poorly all season. Jonah Coleman's return from IR will dock Dobbins' projection by a couple of points, as Coleman's work is expected to come more from Dobbins than from Harvey.

Jamar Chase will not be played on the DFS slate at all because his projection is worse than Bejian Robinson and Christian McCaffrey, who are sitting at very similar prices. Additionally, Puka Nacua and Jeff Gibbs project way too well, making them better allocation targets than Chase in the same game.

Davis Mattek initially had Coker ranked too low in dynasty ratings but immediately adjusted after Coker's recent performance. At $6,100 DFS pricing, Mattek believes Coker should be priced higher and ranked as a top-20 wide receiver for the rest of the season, comparable to T. Higgins. Coker will likely be underowned in DFS this week despite earning his elevated status.

DFS value at $5,500 with 25% target share, 64% catch rate, and 14 PPR points in recent games; Miami's team total is 24.5 on a 44.5 game total. Davis Mattek describes him as a 'plug your nose play'—cheap enough to deploy despite historical inconsistency, with strong matchup fundamentals. Mattek expresses strong conviction to play Waddle with personal money in Week 7, driven by Bo Nicks' historically poor quarterback play (ranked 701st out of 701 in average depth of target), which should force a high-volume game for Waddle with 12+ targets expected. Waddle's cheap pricing combined with a strong matchup against Arizona makes him a smash play if Nicks can execute.

Love is not expected to play this week due to an ankle injury. When he returns, his role will be significantly impacted because Bam Knight has played so well that coaches will not remove Knight entirely; instead, Love will likely receive only ceremonial snaps that directly come from his previous role, creating a problematic backfield situation.

Coleman is returning from IR this week. While Davis Mattek does not expect a huge role for Coleman, his work will dock JK Dobbins' projection by a couple of points, as Coleman's touches are expected to come more from Dobbins than from Harvey.

Guaranteed to get all the work in the Colts backfield; playable only if the Colts show up with pride and effort, which is uncertain given the team's dysfunction and potential blowout risk.

RB is returning from injury this week for the 49ers; his return directly impacts Aaron Jones' fantasy value and deployment, making Jones' current price not reflective of the backfield shift.

Jordan Watkins is an explicit DFS fade for Week 7. He has a 3% target per throw rate, making him an unappealing option in the 49ers-Falcons game. Davis Mattek would not play him or other secondary receivers in the Kansas City stack, preferring Kirk Cousins as the only secondary option worth considering given the expensive nature of stacking around Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey.

At $4,800 DFS price, Allen is a half-decent play against Colts defense; likely to see volume as a hot route option against Flores' blitzing scheme. Even if Tyler Warren returns, Allen's price has not risen much on DraftKings, and the source expects he will see significant usage given the high team total (50.5 points) in the 49ers-Falcons game and tight salary constraints on the slate.

Poor return on investment for Buccaneers despite significant contract; very little production; one of the worst picks on the board. 61-9 snap split last week indicates he is losing work to Bucky Irving, who is emerging as the preferred option in the backfield.

Kirk Cousins is a fine DFS play if negative assumptions about him persist in ownership; Davis Mattek emphasizes that if everyone fades him as a jam, he becomes contrarian value. Ownership-dependent play with upside if the field is overexposed to more obvious wide receiver targets.

Kyle Pitts is probably playable for DFS Week 7 because he will never play in games the Falcons are leading, meaning he's concentrated in obvious passing situations. His targets per route run numbers are all pretty good because he only plays in these high-leverage passing situations, similar to Luther Burton's usage pattern where he doesn't play in heavy personnel packages.

Recommended stack play against weak Colts defense; Davis Mattek explicitly endorses the Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson stack as a DFS deployment given Indianapolis' defensive vulnerabilities, especially without Sauce Gardner.

Lamar Jackson's availability for Week 7 is uncertain; he did not practice on Wednesday, and Crack Rockck tweeted that Lamar Jackson will not be playing. However, the Vegas line remained at Baltimore -3.5 point favorites, suggesting the sportsbook still expects him to play. Davis Mattek believes Lamar Jackson will likely play despite the injury concern, making the entire Cincinnati-Baltimore game dependent on his status. If he plays, the game has potential to be a 'total carnival' with high-upside stacking potential; if Huntley starts instead, Ravens become largely unplayable.

WR has received 34 targets over the last two weeks with back-to-back double-digit target games, yet his DFS price has barely risen; Davis Mattek believes his target share numbers are insane and implies he remains underpriced relative to his volume.

Mark Andrews is a DFS fade for Week 7; Davis Mattek expresses that his fantasy production has completely dried up and is not coming back. This represents a season-long decline commentary suggesting Andrews no longer has the ceiling or floor to justify DFS exposure.

Pittman was lost by the Colts in free agency and replaced with aging Keenan Allen due to salary cap constraints created by the Daniel Jones contract. The source views this as a poorly conceived offseason that forced the Colts to lose multiple defensive players they couldn't afford to replace.

Wilson remains a strong play as a low-owned option with 2–5% projected ownership. His XFP profile is still strong despite recent volatility, capable of 4 for 40 or 11 for 117 performances. He was limited in practice Wednesday, indicating he will play. His appeal is contingent on Patrick Surtain II's final game status, as Surtain would likely draw coverage on Wilson.

Mike Evans is out for the 49ers-Falcons game, creating target volume questions for the 49ers passing game.

At $4,100, the source has been impressed and wants to play him; however, the key is monitoring ownership and whether projections are too bearish on his route rate. If projections underestimate his route rate and overestimate AD Mitchell's target share, there is upside to play him without eating too much salary; if AD Mitchell returns, both receivers must split approximately eight targets between them, creating uncertainty about target allocation. FFPC pricing suggests people are excited to play him.

RB is inefficient and difficult to justify in DFS despite a cheap salary of $5,600. Davis Mattek would like to play him at that price point but can't get comfortable with the projection due to his poor efficiency metrics, even though he's likely to get all the work if Montgomery doesn't play.