Arguing Inputs (Week 6)

Alvin Kamara suffered a back injury during his last game, which creates uncertainty for his availability.

Davis Mattek expects Braelon Allen to see a slight increase in touches while Breece Hall manages his return from injury, but warns against projecting a long-term committee, as Hall remains the lead back.

Davis Mattek identifies Breece Hall as a top-tier DFS value at $5,900 against the Patriots. While Braelon Allen may see a slight increase in touches to manage Hall's workload, Hall remains the clear primary back and should not be viewed as part of a long-term committee.

Davis Mattek suggests that if Bryce Young's recent sample size is indicative of his true ability, he and his primary receivers are currently being under-projected by the market compared to his career averages.

Davis Mattek suggests that Carson Steele could siphon off touches from Dameon Pierce in the Eagles' backfield if Saquon Barkley is sidelined. Steele did not play an offensive snap last week but is considered a candidate for rotation.

Davis Mattek views Chris Olave as overpriced given the current game environment and the Saints' offensive struggles.

Chuba Hubbard is expected to maintain a workhorse role, placing him in the top five for expected fantasy points at $6,300 on DraftKings. Davis Mattek notes that while Hubbard is not an overly efficient player, his volume is secure due to the lack of meaningful competition from AJ Dillon. Mattek highlights that the team has historically shown a willingness to funnel massive rushing shares (72-79%) to a single backup when the starter is out.

Davis Mattek criticizes Colby Parkinson for being the most-used offensive skill player in the NFL by snap count while producing only four fantasy points per game.

DeAndre Swift has not played in the fourth quarter in either of his last two games, partly due to scoreline effects and partly because he is reportedly fighting through a hip injury. Additionally, the team is calling fewer run plays when Roshan Johnson is on the field because he is significantly less effective than Swift.

Davis Mattek considers Dallas Goedert a high-value play at $3,900, arguing the price is too low. Goedert returned to his full role last week, running 69% of routes and leading the team with a 22.5% target share. Mattek believes his ceiling remains high regardless of DeVonta Smith's status, as Smith's return does not significantly alter Goedert's target projection.

Davis Mattek uses Dalton Kincaid as a role comparison for Josh Downs, noting that both players run a high percentage of routes while primarily operating out of the slot.

Davis Mattek highlights Pierce's poor efficiency, noting he averaged only 1.7 yards per carry last week. While Pierce played every snap in the previous game, Mattek expects the team to rotate in other backs like Carson Steele or Jaden Blue if Saquon Barkley is out, making Pierce a risky play despite the potential for volume.

Davis Mattek attributes Colts' offensive struggles partly to Daniel Jones, noting he was not a great quarterback initially and may be further hampered by his recovery from an Achilles injury.

Davis Mattek notes that Demario Douglas is limited to slot-only usage, which makes it difficult for him to increase his route participation. Consequently, Mattek prefers Effton Chisum over Douglas in target share projections.

Davis Mattek suggests Denzel Boston could see an increased target share, though he cautions that a 27-32% projection might be overly optimistic given his history as a low-volume, efficient player.

Davis Mattek notes that while Devin Singletary played 72% of snaps last week, his actual role is not strong, and he expects his usage to remain limited as Tyrone Tracy Jr. is integrated into the rotation.

Davis Mattek views DeVonta Smith as a strong DFS play at $6,900 if he returns to the lineup, noting he should command high volume due to minimal target competition outside of Dallas Goedert. Mattek also notes that Smith's return does not significantly alter Goedert's fantasy projection, as Goedert's target share remains secure despite potential shifts in overall Eagles offensive efficiency.

Durham Smythe's injury was expected to open up opportunities for other tight ends, though the anticipated shift in usage for players like Matthew Hibner did not materialize as expected.

Davis Mattek highlights Dylan Sampson as a key contributor following his return from IR, projecting him to handle goal-line work and passing-down duties with potential for significant reception volume, possibly reaching seven receptions.

Davis Mattek suggests Isaiah Bond is not a viable fantasy asset, though he acknowledges Bond is a cheap $3,200 flyer who saw a 29% target share and 77% route participation last week; Mattek warns of poor concentration and high drop risk.

Davis Mattek highlights Isaiah Likely as a primary target in the Giants' offense with a 28% target share. He is being utilized like a wide receiver, and Mattek suggests increasing his projected market share of receiving touchdowns to 26-30% due to frequent red zone usage. At $4,800 on DraftKings, he is considered a strong flex play.

Davis Mattek views Jaleel McLaughlin as a 'scatback' who will likely be capped at around 20 snaps, sharing backfield work with Dylan Sampson.

Jalen Brooks has seen increased usage and a promotion within the Cardinals' offense following the absence of Marvin Harrison Jr.

Jaylen Coker is a strong play at $5,900 upon his return from injury, offering a $1,400 savings compared to Tetairoa McMillan while maintaining a high ceiling. Davis Mattek expects Coker to command a 22% target share, noting that when both he and McMillan are active, they are both 22-25% target share players. Coker is also described as having a demonstrably higher fantasy ceiling this year than Josh Downs.

Davis Mattek projects Jalen McMillan for a minimum 20% target share, citing Aaron Rodgers' trust and lack of other options. Mattek compares him to a $4,000 version of Michael Pittman Jr., noting his route participation reached 79% last week and he is a talented receiver rather than just a cheap PPR scammer.

Davis Mattek expresses low confidence in Jerry Jeudy, stating he 'sucks' and is not a reliable fantasy option despite the lack of depth on the roster.

Josh Downs has maintained high route participation, never dropping below 80% and reaching 90% recently, though his production remains disappointing. Davis Mattek notes he is currently unplayable at an 18% target share but becomes a viable option if that returns to 24-25%. Mattek is interested in him as a contrarian play this week due to a favorable matchup against the Titans and playing at home. Conversely, Mattek notes Jaylen Coker demonstrably possesses a higher fantasy ceiling this season.

Davis Mattek observes that Khalif Raymond's role in the offense has diminished significantly over recent weeks.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism regarding Keenan Allen's fantasy ceiling, doubting he can reach a 25-point game due to limited yardage potential. Mattek notes Allen has not exceeded a 20% target share in any game outside of one week at 32%, with a season median of 17.5% and route participation not exceeding 77%.

Davis Mattek suggests Kendre Miller is a viable fantasy play at $4,600 if Alvin Kamara is out, noting he would likely handle goal-line work and some receiving duties.

Kyle Williams recorded 34% route participation last week, significantly trailing Effton Chisum's 63% participation rate.

Davis Mattek predicts Lamar Jackson will likely miss another week due to injury, which serves as the primary context for evaluating the Ravens' pass-catching options.

Davis Mattek advises projecting minimal usage for Lan Larrison in the Patriots' backfield, emphasizing that the backfield should be viewed as Rhamondre Stevenson's, who has been used heavily regardless of other players' availability.

Davis Mattek highlights that Laquon Treadwell has seen target share fluctuations over the last few weeks, ranging from 2% to 18%, which serves as a point of comparison for the volatility in the Colts' wide receiver room.

Davis Mattek expects Jalen McMillan to outscore Luther Burden III this week, noting that Burden often sees high target volume (nine targets) without producing significant fantasy points. Burden has maintained consistent route participation between 64% and 77% weekly, but has failed to exceed a 20% target share in most games outside of one 32% performance.

Davis Mattek identifies Malachi Corley as the next receiver up on the depth chart, noting the team has a long leash due to lack of other options.

Davis Mattek identifies Malik Nabers as a focal point of the offense, maintaining a 27% target share despite missing time due to injury. The offense is currently concentrated on him and Isaiah Likely, with Jameis Winston aggressively targeting both.

Davis Mattek notes that the Ravens have scaled Mark Andrews up to a full-time role with high route participation, though he questions Andrews' current efficiency and physical 'juice.' Despite these concerns, Andrews remains a viable DFS option due to his role and matchup.

Davis Mattek contrasts Josh Downs' situation with Marvin Harrison Jr., noting that Harrison Jr. has consistently struggled to earn targets in the Cardinals' offense, unlike the volatility seen with Downs.

Matthew Hibner was identified as a potential beneficiary of Durham Smythe's injury due to his receiving profile, but he did not see the expected increase in playing time.

Michael Pittman Jr. is used as a benchmark for Jalen McMillan's role, with Mattek suggesting McMillan is effectively playing the role of a budget-priced Pittman.

Davis Mattek recommends Michael Wilson as a strong tournament DFS play, noting that his role remains consistent while his ownership is expected to be lower than in previous weeks.

Davis Mattek initially feared Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would steal routes from Josh Downs, but believes recent target share fluctuations are more likely due to fluky volatility than a permanent depth chart shift.

Davis Mattek views Rhamondre Stevenson as a must-play DFS option, citing his 62% rush share and 15% target share. Stevenson is the clear workhorse in the Patriots' backfield, a role solidified by his heavy usage even when other backs are available, as evidenced by his 18 carries to Connor's 6 in Week 1.

Despite noting that Rome Odunze ran a route on 96% of snaps last week—a season-high for any Bears player—Davis Mattek maintains a negative stance on the player, stating he was never good and that his outlook remains unchanged.

Tee Higgins is used as a historical comparison for receivers playing with backup quarterbacks, specifically noting his reliance on target share versus yards after catch when paired with Jake Browning.

Tetairoa McMillan is viewed as having a 30-point ceiling, especially given the lack of top-tier wide receivers on the current slate. Davis Mattek expects him to maintain a 22-25% target share alongside Jaylen Coker. Mattek also suggests that if Bryce Young's recent sample size is indicative of his true ability, McMillan is currently being under-projected by the market.

Davis Mattek notes that his previous anticipation of Theo Johnson eating into Isaiah Likely's red zone work has not materialized at all.

Davis Mattek notes that Tyler Huntley performed adequately in his previous outing and has a history of targeting Zay Flowers heavily, suggesting Flowers' target share remains stable even with Huntley at quarterback.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. is slowly re-entering the Giants' backfield rotation, recording a season-high 13% designed carry share last week. This development is viewed as a negative sign for Devin Singletary's fantasy outlook, as it threatens to turn the backfield into a three-man committee.

Davis Mattek is bullish on Zay Flowers, noting his elite target share and ability to generate yards after the catch. Mattek believes Flowers remains a high-upside play regardless of the quarterback situation, as his target percentage should remain stable even if Lamar Jackson is sidelined and Tyler Huntley takes over.