Week 3 NFL DFS Picks (Game-By-Game)

Davis Mattek identifies Adonai Mitchell as the 'chalk cheap wide receiver of the week' at $4,300, citing his high target volume and 180 air yards in his previous game.

Davis Mattek views Brian Thomas Jr. as a strong DFS value at $4,600, arguing he is significantly more talented than other cheap wide receiver options despite a difficult shadow matchup against Christian Gonzalez. Mattek notes that while current projections of 13.8 points may be too high, Thomas Jr. remains a superior talent compared to other low-priced alternatives like AD Mitchell.

Davis Mattek questions whether Cade Otton will see an increase in route participation to 80% following Mason Taylor's absence, or if the team will utilize Rucker instead, potentially leading to a 'rug pull' for fantasy managers.

Davis Mattek notes that DJ Moore's injury status is a key factor to monitor, as his potential absence would impact the fantasy outlook for other players in that game.

Davis Mattek is high on Dalton Kincaid, comparing his fantasy potential to Trey McBride within the Buffalo Bills' offense. Mattek considers him his favorite tight end play of the slate, arguing that his projection should be as high as Brock Bowers' current output.

Davis Mattek highlights Dalton Schultz at $4,200 as the only playable Texans player, noting he benefits from playing without Nico Collins against favorable tight end defenses. Mattek prefers Schultz 'by a lot' over Isaiah Likely due to concerns about Likely's usage and expects Schultz to carry high ownership.

Davis Mattek expresses concern regarding Drake Maye's performance, noting he has not looked the same this year and citing potential issues with his shoulder. While the matchup against Jacksonville is theoretically a pass-funnel scenario, Mattek is skeptical of the Patriots' offensive output and shell-like play-calling, noting that any success depends on Maye playing significantly better than he has shown thus far.

Emanuel Wilson received a promotion in the team's depth chart while George Holani was demoted, though Wilson remains in a backfield competition with Jaray Price.

Davis Mattek recommends Geno Smith as a value quarterback at $4,900, projecting he will have high volume due to the likelihood of the team trailing. He notes that Smith projects similarly to Jameis Winston but in a better game environment.

George Holani was demoted in the team's backfield depth chart.

Davis Mattek expresses skepticism regarding Isaiah Likely's fantasy value, noting that he is not consistently playing red zone snaps and is not involved in run blocking, which makes him a less attractive option than Dalton Schultz.

Davis Mattek is conflicted on Jameis Winston, noting his high-variance style can force high-volume passing, but his arm strength is questionable and his passing yards per game over the last four years is below 200. Mattek views him as a potential low-owned GPP play if the market overreacts to the 'Flacco-esque' high-volume narrative, though he notes Winston projects similarly to Geno Smith, who is in a better game environment.

Jaylen Warren is highlighted as a top running back play for the slate, coming off a career-high 50 offensive snaps. Mattek projects him for 16-17 carries, 5-7 targets, and all goal-line work, noting he is a superior play to Aaron Jones due to the Steelers' willingness to throw to backs.

Davis Mattek discusses the uncertainty surrounding Jaylen Wright's role, noting that while he expected Wright to take short-yardage work, Emanuel Wilson has seen increased usage instead.

Davis Mattek remains high on Jonathan Taylor as a fantasy play in every matchup this season, noting that his salary remains reasonable despite his central role in the Colts' offense.

Davis Mattek notes that while Josh Downs runs elite routes and looks like the best player on the field, his fantasy output remains capped by the Colts' run-heavy offensive strategy, projecting a modest 12-13 PPR point performance.

Davis Mattek expresses frustration with Keenan Allen's recent performance, specifically citing a poor route execution against Kristian Fulton where Allen was beaten on a slant.

Davis Mattek expects Kenneth Walker to be extremely high-owned (30-35%) in DFS, citing his heavy involvement in the passing game with 10 targets last week and his status as second on the team in targets through two weeks. Mattek considers him an amazing play every week, noting he is a preferred target for screen passes over the team's wide receivers and is one of the best running back plays on the slate, potentially superior to Jaylen Warren.

Davis Mattek likes Ladd McConkey for DFS but notes his interest is contingent on a full practice; he expects McConkey to be less limited than in Week 2, where his snaps were reduced.

Davis Mattek is skeptical of Malik Nabers' DFS projection due to his current shoulder injury; Mattek notes that if Nabers were fully healthy at his $6,500 price point, he would be a much stronger play.

Davis Mattek identifies Parker Washington as a primary breakout candidate and an undervalued DFS play at $6,000. Mattek ranks him as the WR8 overall, projecting a high-floor performance of 15-16 PPR points per game rest-of-season. His value is driven by his role as the team's primary target, high route participation, and usage in slot and motion formations that help him avoid difficult defensive matchups.

Davis Mattek highlights a bearish sentiment regarding Quentin Johnston, citing a quote from Justin Herbert who, when asked about increasing Johnston's involvement, responded, 'I think he's got a bunch of targets.'

Davis Mattek argues that Rashee Rice is mispriced at $6,400 given his current 12% target share and poor success rate against man coverage. Mattek notes that his role has been diminished by other players, including Xavier Worthy and Emani Johnson, who have alleviated the need for the specific role Rice previously occupied.

Davis Mattek expects Rhamondre Stevenson to lead the Patriots in snaps but notes his explosive play rate is lower than TreVeyon Henderson's. Mattek highlights a significant risk to Stevenson's playing time due to the team's tendency to bench players who fumble, referencing Stevenson's recent ball-security issues.

Davis Mattek notes that Rico Dowdle was seen in a boot on Wednesday due to a toe injury, leading to the expectation that he will not play. Mattek further suggests Dowdle is on the 'downside of Q' and is significantly less valuable than Jaylen Warren.

Davis Mattek highlights Tee Higgins' strong underlying usage through two weeks, noting he is due for a breakout performance soon despite a lack of touchdowns so far.

Davis Mattek identifies TreVeyon Henderson as a viable DFS tournament play at $5,200, noting his explosive play potential with six touchdowns of 39+ yards in his first 18 games. Mattek views him as the primary early-down rusher for the Patriots and a high-upside pivot from Rhamondre Stevenson, especially given Stevenson's recent fumble and the team's tendency to bench players who turn the ball over.

Davis Mattek highlights Trevion Henderson as a viable DFS tournament play at $5,200 due to his explosive play potential, noting he has recorded six touchdowns of 39+ yards in his first 18 games. While he may not project well in standard models, his sub-2% ownership and ability to rip off massive runs make him a high-upside pivot from Rhamondre Stevenson.

Xavier Worthy is a viable DFS play at $4,400 due to his high route participation (82%) in a positive game environment, having already accumulated more targets than Rashee Rice through two weeks. However, Mattek notes he struggles with deceleration and route nuance compared to peers like Josh Downs or Zay Flowers, and he is functionally similar to Devon Vele.