Davis Mattek Source

Davis Mattek artwork

VideoFrom Davis Mattek

Week 1 NFL DFS Game By Game Preview

STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.

1 hr 18 min

Duration

Estimated from transcript

Sep 10, 2026

Published

Thu, September 10, 2026

45

Player insights

44

Players mentioned

Topics

D'Andre SwiftAlec PierceAmon-Ra St. BrownAustin HooperBijan RobinsonBrian Thomas Jr.Bucky IrvingCaleb WilliamsCedric TillmanCedrick WilsonChase BrownChris GodwinChris RodriguezChuba Hubbard

Player analysis

Player insights

45

Alec Pierce

PositiveRole27:59

Alec Pierce is expected to play his usual role and 100% of the snaps as he returns to health; he is a viable tournament play due to his big-play ability. Mattek prefers playing Pierce over Josh Downs, citing expectations that Pierce will reach 90% participation in the Colts' offense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

PositiveValue13:25

Davis Mattek identifies Amon-Ra St. Brown as a top-tier DFS option, preferring him over Ja'Marr Chase even at three times the ownership. Mattek cites the favorable matchup, the game's high 50.5-point total, and St. Brown's role in a high-floor, high-scoring Lions offense that plays indoors.

Austin Hooper

NegativeValue35:12

Davis Mattek advises avoiding Austin Hooper, citing concerns over the Browns' low team total and preferring other tight end options.

Bijan Robinson

NegativeValue41:19

Davis Mattek notes Bijan Robinson has low DFS ownership (less than 10%) but expresses skepticism about his Week 1 outlook, preferring to play Jonathan Taylor instead due to the game environment.

Brian Thomas Jr.

NegativeUsage39:59

Davis Mattek is uncertain about Brian Thomas Jr. for Week 1, questioning whether he will be a primary target or if he will primarily serve as a decoy to draw coverage from Denzel Ward, potentially opening up opportunities for Parker Washington.

Bucky Irving

PositiveUsage8:06

Davis Mattek identifies Bucky Irving as a potential value at $5,700, expecting him to command two-thirds of the rushing share and significant early-down receiving work. Mattek expects Irving to be the lead rusher and goal-line back for the Buccaneers, though he advises monitoring ownership levels due to a potential backfield split with Kenneth Gainwell.

Caleb Williams

NegativeValue4:09

Caleb Williams is a core piece of Mattek's recommended Bears DFS stack at $6,300, but Mattek notes he is not a strong play outside of those specific stacks because he is not simulating well in current models.

Cedric Tillman

PositiveUsage34:55

Davis Mattek identifies Cedric Tillman as the only Browns receiver who moderately interests him for Week 1, specifically looking for short-area usage or gadget plays.

Cedrick Wilson

NegativeUsage16:35

Cedrick Wilson Jr. is expected to see a startling amount of DFS ownership as a sub-4K player, though Mattek personally prefers rostering Juwan Johnson over him in flex spots.

Chase Brown

NegativeValue20:20

Davis Mattek is avoiding Chase Brown at his $7,100 price point, arguing that there are many more appealing and less expensive running back options available on the slate.

Chris Godwin

PositiveValue16:52

Davis Mattek identifies Chris Godwin as the best wide receiver play on the Buccaneers at his $5,200 price point. Mattek notes that Godwin is the healthiest receiver on the team and occupies a high-value slot role in the offense, making him a strong fantasy play.

Chris Rodriguez

PositiveUsage36:20

Davis Mattek advocates for starting Chris Rodriguez in a zero-RB build because he offers the widest range of positive outcomes, potentially serving as the lead rusher for the team. Mattek believes projections are hedging too much on him and that he is priced appropriately for DFS, noting he is Liam Coen's preferred back.

Chuba Hubbard

NegativeRole5:34

Davis Mattek expects Chuba Hubbard to serve as the lead back in a committee with Jonathan Brooks, projecting a rotation where Hubbard takes roughly two drives for every one drive Brooks leads.

D'Andre Swift

PositiveUsage4:37

D'Andre Swift is a desired DFS play with a 15.7-point projection and 11% ownership. His usage is expected to increase significantly if Khalil Herbert is out, leaving a backfield rotation of only Swift, Roschon Johnson, and Salvon Ahmed.

PositiveUsage5:51

DeAndre Swift is a desired DFS play with a 15.7-point projection and 11% ownership; his value could increase if he becomes the primary back in a limited rotation.

Daniel Jones

PositiveProjection27:59

Daniel Jones has shown positive progress in training camp, and there is confidence in his health and viability as a DFS play for the upcoming week.

David Montgomery

PositiveUsage30:07

David Montgomery is suggested as a low-owned (approx. 3%) DFS play because his skill set as an explosive outside-tackle runner matches the specific defensive weaknesses of the Bills.

Derrick Henry

PositiveValue27:05

Derrick Henry is priced at $6,700, which is among the lowest opening prices he has seen this season. Despite low projected ownership and general DFS user aversion, he remains a bonus-friendly play worth considering.

Devaughn Vele

NegativeValue30:10

Davis Mattek advises against playing Devaughn Vele in DFS lineups, preferring Juwan Johnson at a similar salary point for flex spots.

Drake London

PositiveValue41:28

Davis Mattek highlights Drake London as an interesting DFS play at $6,500, noting he is priced below Chris Olave and will likely have lower 'vibes-based' ownership than his algorithmic projection suggests; London is currently noted for having less than 10% ownership in fantasy drafts.

Emanuel Wilson

NegativeUsage15:42

Davis Mattek highlights Emanuel Wilson's usage as a negative example of goal-line deployment, noting that Wilson was frequently subbed in for short-yardage situations, including the team's only rushing touchdown opportunity, which limited the fantasy value of other backfield options.

Garrett Wilson

PositiveValue45:51

Davis Mattek identifies Garrett Wilson as a key DFS target at $4,800 as part of a potential Geno Smith-led stack, which would allow for easier roster construction of high-priced studs.

Ja'Marr Chase

NegativeValue13:25

Davis Mattek identifies Ja'Marr Chase as the expensive chalk wide receiver for the week. Mattek notes that Chase is a high-ownership option and compares his value to Amon-Ra St. Brown for roster construction purposes. Mattek plans to be underweight on Bengals pass catchers due to concerns about the team's historical Week 1 struggles.

Jahmyr Gibbs

PositiveUsage24:08

Davis Mattek identifies Jahmyr Gibbs as the most owned player on the slate and a core piece of recommended DFS stacks due to his high-upside role in a fast-paced, high-scoring game environment. Mattek plans to play him heavily regardless of his high projected ownership.

Jalen McMillan

NegativeInjury18:35

Davis Mattek suggests that Jalen McMillan could see limited snaps due to injury concerns, noting that the team may rotate their non-Godwin wide receivers to get Trey Palmer on the field.

Jameson Williams

PositiveBreakout3:39

Jameson Williams is a high-upside DFS play, labeled a 'silver star' by Mattek who notes he would be a 'gold star' if not for Luther Burden. He is expected to be a popular play and is an affordable piece of a fast-paced Lions stack alongside Goff, Gibbs, and LaPorta.

Jaylen Warren

NegativeUsage43:38

Davis Mattek suggests fading Jaylen Warren in favor of Rico Dowdle, noting that while Warren is talented, the game script favors a lead back like Dowdle.

Jonathan Taylor

PositiveValue30:35

Jonathan Taylor is considered a remarkable value at $7,300, given his historical usage and high expectations for the Colts' offense. Davis Mattek plans to play Taylor over Bijan Robinson due to the favorable game environment.

Josh Allen

NegativeProjection27:12

Josh Allen is considered a viable 'naked' DFS play if paired with a stack from a different game, relying on his rushing floor to provide value.

Josh Downs

NegativeUsage31:12

Davis Mattek expects Josh Downs to see high participation in the 90% range, but notes that Keenan Allen's presence may limit his immediate fantasy production. Mattek suggests the optimal time to roster Downs might be six weeks from now once Allen's health declines.

Juwan Johnson

PositiveValue16:33

Juwan Johnson is considered an egregiously mispriced DFS option at $3,700; Mattek views him as the clear number two option in the Saints' passing game and a priority target for tight end or flex spots, preferring him over Cedrick Wilson Jr. at a similar salary.

Keenan Allen

PositiveUsage29:57

Keenan Allen is inexpensive in DFS, but Davis Mattek projects his snap share will be limited to 50-60% because he likely won't be in two-receiver sets. Mattek is skeptical that Allen will maintain the team's highest target share and projects a stat line similar to Demario Douglas's recent 5-catch, 20-yard performance.

Kyle Pitts

NegativeValue42:48

Davis Mattek considers Kyle Pitts a fine play but notes he has other tight ends he prefers to target in DFS lineups for the week.

Luther Burden

PositiveUsage0:54

Davis Mattek rejects the 21% target share projection for Luther Burden as too low for a rookie expected to be the WR1; he is a priority DFS play at $5,500 and a core stack piece alongside Caleb Williams and Colston Loveland.

Parker Washington

PositiveValue38:08

Parker Washington is a top DFS value play at $5,600, potentially the lowest price he will see all season. Mattek plans to play him and stack him with Trevor Lawrence, viewing Week 1 as the best time to bet on his role in the offense.

Quinshon Judkins

NegativeUsage33:56

Davis Mattek highlights Quinshon Judkins as a high-volume candidate capable of 30 carries in a game, though he warns against starting him in Week 1 due to a tough matchup against a top-ranked rush defense.

Rachaad White

NegativeValue36:21

Rachaad White is being weighed against Jonathan Brooks and Chris Rodriguez Jr. as a potential starter for a zero-RB fantasy team.

Rico Dowdle

PositiveUsage43:38

Davis Mattek favors Rico Dowdle over Jaylen Warren for Week 1, citing reports that Dowdle may handle lead rushing and goal-line duties in a game where Pittsburgh is expected to lead.

Rome Odunze

NegativeInjury2:19

Rome Odunze's injury designation is a critical DFS factor; Mattek prefers him to play to help dilute the ownership concentration on other Bears pass catchers like Luther Burden and Colston Loveland.

Roschon Johnson

NegativeDepth Chart7:17

Roschon Johnson is part of the Bears' backfield depth chart alongside DeAndre Swift and Salvon Ahmed, with his role dependent on the availability of other backs like Khalil Herbert.

Salvon Ahmed

NegativeDepth Chart7:17

Salvon Ahmed is part of the Bears' backfield depth chart alongside DeAndre Swift and Roschon Johnson.

Sam LaPorta

PositiveValue25:07

Sam LaPorta is considered a highly affordable DFS option at $4,400, making him a key component for building high-upside, multi-player stacks from the Lions offense.

Sean Tucker

NegativeRole9:04

Davis Mattek believes Sean Tucker is unlikely to factor into the game plan and may not even play, dismissing his role as a potential 'psy-op'.

Tee Higgins

PositiveProjection20:50

Davis Mattek believes the current target share projections for Tee Higgins are too low. While last year saw a 19% share, Mattek projects a closer split with Ja'Marr Chase, suggesting Higgins could reach a 23-25% target share.

Travis Etienne

PositiveUsage16:49

Travis Etienne Jr. is Mattek's favorite DFS play from the Saints/Lions game, as he expects Etienne to dominate backfield touches given the coaching staff's reluctance to utilize Kendre Miller. Mattek includes him in recommended high-sim DFS stack iterations.

Full transcript

Episode Transcript

738

0:00Eli Raren first touchdown last night. We are now heading into week one thinking about DFS. This is our game by-game NFL

0:08DFS show. Davis Madak, Jacob Sanderson.

0:11We go through every game on the main NFL DFS slate. We break down all of the plays and we begin with actually,

0:17frankly, a game that I assume both of us are going to be very, very attuned to.

0:21The Chicago Bears traveling to play at the Carolina Panthers. They are three-point road favorites. a 25point team total here. Honestly, frankly,

0:31disrespectful projections um across the board. And I know there's going to be some stuff that is just wonky with the way the projections are working to give

0:38you guys uh a little bit of a look in the back end. Basically, 3 days, 4 days before the start of the NFL season, your

0:45favorite uh NFL DFS software. They're they're making things happen. Um I I just want to say right away, Jacob, I disagree with a 21% target share for

0:55Luther Burton. Those are rookie numbers.

0:56We are We're going to have to jazz those up, I think.

0:59>> Yeah. I mean, this is talk about a hedge. I mean, shout out to our goats, our quants, our literal quants at Run

1:06the Sims. Uh, but I'm seeing the 21% Rome, 21% level, and 21.3% for Luther Burden. The.3 frankly

1:15feels like tokenism. Um, just to give us that extra little boost uh and say that he's the wide receiver one. But, you

1:22know, uh I if you're watching the Republican National Convention, you know that socialism is creeping at our doorstep and socialism is creeping at

1:29the doorstep of the Bears projections if we're just all going to toss a 21% on these guys. Um a winner will be declared

1:36in week one.

1:37>> A winner will be declared in week one.

1:39I'm willing to say that um with Rome Adun coming into this game with a injury designation, >> I don't even know if he's coming into

1:47this game.

1:48>> We don't even know if he's coming into this game. I mean, I hate to spoil the show, the whole point of the show in the

1:54very first game, but I think users, listeners, viewers of this program can already guess who the gold star play from one Mr. Davis Lamont Madak is going

2:03to be in this game. Just frankly, I think in the context of the slate, Luther Burden at 5,500 is going to get overlooked because he's

2:12not such an obvious math play that like a slappy favorite would end up being a jam. There are plenty of $5,000 to

2:19$6,000 receivers who are totally playable in this late. For example, I would think sloppy favorite Jameson Williams will perhaps double the

2:26ownership of Luther Burton in this spot.

2:30>> Yeah. I mean, week one DFS is like this is this is feels like Christmas morning.

2:34Um, you know, when we're in week seven, I'll probably come on to the show and I'll be like, look, like I found this

2:40angle. I'm really excited to play Hunter Henry, you know, or whatever. Um, or Courtland Sutton. Yeah, >> but like the notion that I'm not going

2:49to have at least one lineup that is simply Caleb Williams, Luther Burton, Coulson Lovelin log out is is ludicrous.

2:56Like I've been waiting to do this for for seven months and I certainly will be doing this. I would prefer Roman Dunay

3:02to play. I'll say that because I mean if Roman Dun does not play >> Yeah. If Roman Dunay I want Roman Dunay

3:08to not only play, I want him to be off the injury report. like if we get Roman Dunce um out or we get him like game

3:14time decision but plays then I I do think you know with how consolidated it would expect to be on Burden and on

3:22Loveland and with the team total uh I mean the ownership on Burden Loveland is going to go through the roof um if

3:27there's if there's not that 21% target share pull on Roma um arguably uh if he's off the injury report he's also

3:35probably a fun play because I don't think people would go to him um it would decrease the ownership on the Bears

3:40overall and and then certainly decrease the ownership on on Adun. If people are are figuring out which bear they want to

3:47play, they're probably not going to break ties to the injured ones. So, >> uh yeah, I want to play the Bears. I

3:51want Adun in the game just to take a little bit of the heat off. I also probably want to play DeAndre Swift.

3:56Like I could see um every Bear catching ownership given the total, but especially if people are trying to play the pass catchers, especially if Rome

4:03consolidates things with the injury, then that's probably the best path to go like logically.

4:09Yes. And so right now carrying a 15.7 point projection that feels about right.

4:1511% ownership also feels about right.

4:17He's just not the type of player who ends up getting steamed too much by, you know, particularly people playing in the

4:24spy in the red zone in a contest like that that we really like to play in. Um yeah, I I think Swift I mean there's a

4:32chance that Manungai doesn't play in this game. He's listed as day today. I think he I think he probably will. But

4:37if Manungi doesn't play and the backfield is down to Swift, Roshan and Savon Akmed, then I I think you would see Swift come up quite a bit. And and

4:47Caleb honestly at 6,300 will not really get played outside of Bears stacks either. It's not and he he's not like simming super well or or anything like

4:56that. On the other side of this game, we have the the Carolina Panthers. I am expecting that Jonathan Brooks will play

5:03and >> is this projection a bit or is this real?

5:06>> The the projections are because of the way I have the inputs and the projections are basically wrong. The the the projections the projections are that

5:13you see.

5:13>> Oh, I Oh, the inputs make the inputs look substantially >> the inputs are correct.

5:17>> I just thought I thought that uh that our friends that run the Sims were literally doing a 17-2 >> projection to troll us.

5:24>> I think I think 19 expected points for this backfield is about right. I think you probably just do the uh the Isaac

5:30and the Abraham and you literally cut them dead in half for for both of them.

5:34>> Yeah, I'd say I mean Chuba should be expected to be the lead. I think if Brooks is he's he's been like managing

5:40this groin issue. He probably should have been projected to be the lead anyway as long as Chuba was healthy to start the year. So, um I it's been

5:48interesting what Canalis has said about the nature of the committee split. Um most coaches don't go this much into detail. He's basically said like we're

5:57going to have a committee, but we want one guy to be the lead on early downs, the other guy to play predominantly on

6:01third downs. But then he also mentioned some series they'll reverse it um where someone will play on on early downs, the

6:07other guy might play on third down. So it's it's kind of a unique um way that he said that they'll approach it. I I if

6:14I had to expect week one, I think we'll see like two drives to one drive for Hubard as the lead and then the other

6:21guys kind of situation.

6:24Yeah, like early season Cororm Chiron though, you know, or like late 2024 Cororm Chairen, not the the playoffs where they were kind of doing a full

6:33onetoone Cororm Chiron. So, um I don't know. I'm probably not playing either of them. I mean, if you're going to play

6:40one of them, it'd be Chuba, but like 5500, I feel like I can find better options personally than than Chuba Hubard. Um if I was going to play anyone

6:48on the Panther side, it's probably just >> Teroa. Um the the Bears are are are pretty rough defense. I I think that the

6:57Panthers can have some degree of success and that >> the only good report Carnell Tate had for the entire preseason was in the

7:04joint practices against the Chicago Bears. Outside of that, it was only this is the worst player imaginable.

7:10So, that should that should tell you what um a non-separating overdrafted big wide receiver with poor quarterback play can do uh against uh against the Chicago

7:21Bears defense.

7:22>> You don't even believe that about Tedoa.

7:24>> I I don't actually. That's uh that's a fair point. I don't I was just actually I was just actually doing it for uh was

7:31actually just doing it for Bev. Yeah.

7:32Not interested in any of these tertiary options. I frankly I think >> Darren Waller >> I would not play Darren Waller. I it

7:39sounds like they might even be doing the uh the thing they did with Waller in Miami, which is they just didn't play

7:47him for the first couple games and let him play his way into shape. So there's a chance that he doesn't even play in

7:52this game.

7:53>> Uh that's all I've got for the Carolina.

7:55Although 22 and a half for a team total is like honestly not that low for for them given given the context. So maybe

8:01Ted Roy is a better play than I would have imagined. Uh next up we have Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. I think one of the

8:07larger questions is is $5,700 for Bucky Irving the lowest price he'll be all year or are we going to see a flipping

8:16of the Kenny Gainwell Bucky Irving salaries over the course of the season?

8:22>> Yeah, that's that's certainly an interesting question for sure. Um, I'm expecting Irving to see about twothirds

8:33of the backfield rushing share. And then I'm expecting him to also see plenty of receiving work on early downs. He basically always has seen receiving work

8:41on early downs outside of that stretch late last season when he was coming back from a shoulder issue. Couldn't really extend his arms. Uh, I am definitely

8:50expecting to see Gainwell mix in some points on early downs. definitely expecting him to play the long down and distance stuff. Um the the most

8:58interesting aspect I think for me is the goal line work. Um you know Sean Tucker is might not even play in this game

9:05frankly.

9:06>> Um and I've been on the belief that it's that he's a sigh up. Like I don't think that he's actually going to factor in

9:12much at all anyways without an injury.

9:15>> So if it's Irving versus Gainwell at the goal line, like neither of these guys are what you'd consider a prototypical

9:20goal line back. Irving I expect to be the lead rusher. So naturally you'd expect him to be the goal line back if

9:27things aren't like kind of pre-arranged otherwise. We did get Greg Alman said he he thought Gainwell would factor in prominently in high lever situations. I

9:36I think it'll be some form of split. Um I don't I don't know that we'll see like quite as extreme as we saw last night in

9:42the Seahawks game where every time they get to second and one Emanuel Wilson is trotting out onto the field and basically not playing otherwise.

9:49>> That was dark. That was really dark stuff to watch as a as a big Jarian Price guy. I was not gotta say I was not

9:55a huge fan of George Helani rumbling and bumbling for 3.2 yards per carry. Well, Jadarian Price looks like Leian Tomlinson. Then the one chance the team

10:04had to score a rushing touchdown, Emanuel Wilson came out. It was pretty pretty tough. Uh a an opinion I did not

10:12expect to have coming into this game was Chris Godwin Jr. looking pretty good at $5,200 with Ibuka coming in off the

10:19turftoe. Again, a chance I mean BS is like Mr. Unreliable when it comes to the coach speak stuff, but it sounds like

10:27there is a legitimate chance Ibuka does not play. But this slot wide receiver job in this Cohen McVey, whatever hybrid offense you'd want to call it, with a

10:37healthy Baker Mayfield is just absolute like fantasy point. It's it's so it's so good. 50 and a half total for this game.

10:46I mean, Godwin to me looks like the best wide receiver play on the on the Buccaneers side.

10:51>> Yeah, I I'd be inclined to agree. I I think I will play. He practiced in full, but you're getting Godwin's the

10:57healthier receiver. He's the far cheaper receiver. I think he's in the better role. And, you know, if you want to bet

11:03on one of these 30-year-old dust balls, like usually the time to do it is early in the season when they're at their at

11:07their healthiest. So, um I agree. I think is a strong play. I I'm curious to see what the snap rotation is outside of

11:15him. Like I think he'll play almost every route, but I could see both Ibuka or McMillan being limited. They're dealing with injuries and they seem to

11:22really like Ted Hurst and want to find ways to get him onto the field. So I wouldn't be surprised to see somewhat of

11:27a rotation of the non- Chris Godman wide receivers. I think Godwin easily would be my favorite player on the Buccaneers.

11:34Um I I'm I'm interested in Bucky Irving for sure, but I I want to be ownership sensitive on that. We'll track like I'm

11:42I could see this different ways throughout the week. Like I could see a lot of people saying like Baky 5700 gets

11:48the Bengals. What a smash. Um but I I could also see people doing a lot of Gainwell FUD. I don't think people will

11:54play Gainwell. They're priced like probably too close together. So maybe if you really wanted to try and um big brain one in like a GPP, I probably

12:02won't. But, um, I'll also note the the Bengals added Dexter Lawrence, right?

12:06So, they probably shouldn't be quite as much of a gigas smash matchup for running backs as they were.

12:10>> I was going to say people have been talking all off season about the the Bengals being one of the the improved

12:16defenses overall.

12:18>> Yeah.

12:20>> Well, we will we will we will see. Uh, okay. On the other side, I mean, you've got Chase Brown 7100. This is

12:27historically a very good uh what historically they're a runfunnel, right?

12:33Or no, they're a pass.

12:34>> They're pass funnel. They're pass funnel. Yeah, they stop the run. Big Va in there. Can't run.

12:40>> Good for him. I I'm frankly just the way the slate is playing out. I'm just not really interested in Chase Brown at all.

12:45There are so many appealing running back plays who are less expensive than him.

12:50Although I think these inputs look about right. 62% of the rushes, 14% target share. The T. Higgins inputs look a little low to me. Um although that was

12:59that was what it ended up shaking out last year about a 19% target share for T with Chase absolutely mogging him. Um I

13:08would I would bet that's a little bit closer to like 25 23 something like that because that's been the overarching way

13:14that their career has gone. Chase projects as the um the expensive chalk receiver this week. Um, so you kind of have to ask yourself if you're using

13:25that slot, do you prefer Jamar Chase or Aman Ross St. Brown?

13:30>> Yeah, it makes a ton of sense that a lot of ownership would fall on Chase just for the simple reason of, you know, JSN

13:35played last night. Um, AJ Brown, sadly not for long, played last night. Um, Puka Nakua plays tonight, CD Lamb plays Sunday night. So you you're very limited

13:47in terms of the expensive like round one reddraft type wide receivers that are actually on this slate. Uh in theory

13:55playing a Joe Burrow Tase double stack against a pass funnel defense sounds like a lot of fun. How much do you buy

14:04into the fact that the Bengals for week one every season look the Tennessee Titans >> always suck. So here's here if you are

14:13looking to say this is a true narrative that I believe I can actually give you logic for it which is Zack Taylor

14:20well-known idiot bad coach like well like is like quite bad has altered his preeason uh the way they do the preseason in attempts to not be as bad

14:32in week one. This is like on record. He said, "We're doing things slightly differently in preseason and training camp to try and not be the worst team in

14:39the NFL in week one." But frankly, that feels a little insurmountable to be the worst um you know, coach. Like, everyone

14:48knows Zack Taylor's a dun. It's it's like NFL insiders say this every year.

14:52They say, "Oh, well, they'd fire him if they weren't so cheap." You know, basically the Bengals have no cash, so they can't afford to pay two coaches at

14:59once. Um, I I think it's the Bengals are of the 32 NFL teams, the the Brown family, I believe is their name. They

15:07are the only NFL owners who are not billionaires, the only ones.

15:11>> Um, so this is I this is really not me making this up. It's it's very real. Um, so I do put a little bit of stock into

15:17it. Yeah.

15:19>> Yeah, I do too. It's like it's too long at this point for it to not be a consistent issue and it's the exact same

15:25personnel over and over again. So like whether it's a Taylor issue or Burrow issue or or whatever, it's the same guys

15:31every year. So you would expect to see something better um eventually. We'll see. I I'm probably like, like with anything in DFS, there's a lot of

15:42different questions that are are kind of unanswerable.

15:45You know, if if people are just looking at the matchup, they're excited to jam Jamar Chase, especially because of some of the different factors with the

15:52expensive receivers off the board. like I I'll play into the Bengals are bad week one. You know, it's like if I if I

15:58can dodge ownership um based on a narrative that may or may not be true, I'm I'm willing to play that angle. So,

16:04I'll probably be underweight to Bengals pass catchers.

16:07>> Yeah, I I and I do think I have a slight preference for St. Brown given the matchup. Although 50 and a half total

16:13for this game is quite good. And we can now move to that game. Uh seven point favorites for the Detroit Lions at home.

16:19This is one of our dome games. The 50point team total. Uh we this is these are the two highest totals. Tampa Bay

16:25Cincinnati and New Orleans and Detroit.

16:28Loads of your chalk is going to come from this game. Chuck is going to get played. Al is obviously going to get

16:33played. Jawan Johnson is going to get played a ton this 4 and a half ownership is wrong. Vele is going to get played.

16:41Vle is going to get played a startling amount. Uh like I would I would expect him to be the most popular sub4K player

16:49in the pool by quite a bit. Uh, ETN looks like my favorite play from this side because I just think he straight up

16:55probably doesn't have a backup. Well, his backup's Kendre Miller, and we have seen how loathed the NFL coaches are to play Kendre Miller.

17:03>> Yeah, I like a lot of the Saints here. I I I know it'll be into ownership, but I like them a lot anyways. Uh, Lions

17:10secondary is ravaged by injuries. Um, and the Lions are probably going to put up a ton of points themselves. So, really great spot for the Saints offense

17:18here. You're going to have a team that prefers to play fast anyhow that's probably going to have to chase points indoors that's going to do it against

17:26one of the most injury riddled and frankly just worst secondaries in the NFL. Um basically out of their key four their starting four secondary players

17:36right Terry Arnold had a criminal matter that resulted in his release from the team. Uh Brian Branch is injured. Kirby Joseph is injured. So they're starting

17:44backups everywhere in the secondary. And then you also have the fact that the Saints I think just come in a little bit

17:49underpriced especially based on you know Jordan Tyson like I don't know when they set any of these kind of prices but like

17:56Jawan Johnson is the clear number two option in the passing game at $3,700 I think is just a pretty egregious mispric

18:02play. So I I'll be looking at him strongly as my like tight end. I'll be looking at him as, you know, like to me

18:10Veillay is actually kind of not a great play because if I'm just looking at playing a lineup with Jawan Johnson in

18:15the flex or Vele in the flex, like I would rather back Jawan Johnson at a very similar salary and play a two tight

18:20end lineup. So, um I'll be all over that. I'm I'm sure I'll be bringing a lot of people with me and Alave I think

18:27is a super strong play as I think you'll actually get saved a little bit on the Jawan mega steam because of Michael

18:34Mayer who we have not talked about yet.

18:36But mayor DFS players DFS players love Michael Mayer. DFS players also love to react to the thing that just happened.

18:45Like if if two projections are the exact same, but one of them is an injury replacement for an injury that just

18:50happened, the ownership of the injury replacement player will be higher. So that is going to >> super true.

18:57>> Yeah. and and and I like Mayor too obviously this week, but I'll say that I like Jawan more. Um, this game is just

19:03way better from an environment perspective for for all the reasons I just laid out. Like New Orleans is going to have to push pace in this game to

19:10keep up with Detroit. Uh, the Miami >> unless Detroit is just ass now. I No one's been no one's been brave enough.

19:18>> I think their offense won't be ass.

19:19>> I don't think they're Well, I mean, the offense was sputtery. It wasn't bad last year, but I would say it was very

19:25sputtery last year. No one has been brave enough to say the Lions might be ass without Ben Johnson. And I don't

19:33think they'll be ass, but I do wonder if we're talking about like the eighth best offense in the NFL, not the second best

19:39offense in the NFL.

19:40>> That's possible for sure. But I I do think that, you know, there there's a there's a pretty high floor for what an

19:47offense with Almond Ross St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam Laaporta, Jamir Gibbs, Jared Goff indoors can do. Um, and I I think that they will be pretty

19:56effective at putting up points. I also really credit like Dan Campbell I feel like is a sharp enough and aggressive enough coach to understand my defense

20:05sucks. So, I'm going to have to try and play aggressively on offense. Like I don't I don't expect them to play in a

20:11shell. I expect them to play to put up points and I expect the Saints to then have to adjust to that. So, like I'd

20:17rather bet on Jawan for that reason. I the Raiders and Miami game like that might that game might just be horrendous,

20:23>> right? I mean, both those teams might be content. God, I really hope >> 47 plays each >> and just like, okay, who has the ball

20:32last to kick a field goal and we'll we'll go home with a 1613 result. Like >> a Miami is going to run the ball

20:37constantly. Vegas, especially without Brock Brock Bowers, I expect to run the ball constantly. And as long as the game stays close, like I think it's just

20:45going to be every play is 38 seconds off the clock before it snapped and it's halftime. Like that game will be coming

20:52out of the half before this game enters the half. I So here's the thing. I I so badly want you to be wrong. I want this

21:00to be like look Malik Willis is showing what he can do and and Genty is juking guys out of their cleats and it's

21:06incredible. But like it's you're so so right. It is going to be a sequel of Wednesday night football where it's just

21:12like and Malik Willis has turfed it yet again. The Miami Dolphins are rearing back to punt. Will Casmic with two for

21:2019 is the Dolphins leading receiver. You you obviously could not be more correct on the Detroit Lions side of the ball. I

21:29actually think golf doubles in big slates like this tend to be a little bit underowned. They tend to sim pretty well

21:36because what most people will do is they will do their game stack and then they will play Gibbs >> or they'll do their game stack and

21:43they'll play St. Brown and Goff will be ignored. We've seen Goff in these spots, these home games as big favorites. They

21:50do not dick around. Like there were what there were two times that he had five touchdown passes in a game uh in the

21:562024 season. There was one game I want to say believe it was the Titans game in 2024. The Lions had seven possessions

22:04and scored seven touchdowns. Like they do not Dan Campbell does not call the dogs off. Um I'm I'm pretty pretty into

22:12Goff, Gibbs, St. Brown. Golf St. Brown J. And were it not for the existence of my beautiful boy Luther Burden, Jameson

22:21Williams would be my gold star. So I guess you can call him the silver star play here.

22:26>> Yeah, I'm I'm into everyone in this whole game. like it's two offenses I expect to be reasonably consolidated that play fast that play indoors that

22:33that are going to want to score a lot of points. Like yeah, I'm in I'm into everybody involved here. Um you know,

22:39this is a Thursday show. We're going to have probably a better feel for like who exactly is going to be owned at what

22:44percentage come Sunday morning and and that might change like the specific >> Gibbs will be the most owned player of the slate for sure.

22:52>> Yeah, he will and he should be and I'll probably play him anyways. Um, but yeah, every iteration of this stack will

22:59receive significant consideration from me. Like I would do like and potentially huge iterations. Like I I could see myself playing something that's like

23:07Goff, Gibbs, J Mo, Leaporta, I don't know. Um, Jawan, ETN, like you could I could go pretty >> I think you could play five. I think I

23:17was going to say I think you could play five guys from this game. I think you could do Goff, Gibbs, JMO, Albab, ETN,

23:24and be like, "Yeah, >> yeah, that is that is a good lineup.

23:27That that sims pretty well." In fact, I I would guess if you did sim, some of that big overstacking stuff in smaller

23:34fields on Run the Sims, I bet that would come through pretty pretty >> pretty hot.

23:39>> Like like quite hard to play both Gibbs and Almond lineup obviously, but possible of course, but there are enough cheap pieces, right? Like you mentioned,

23:47Veillay is super cheap. Jawan is cheap.

23:49Leaport is really affordable at 4,400.

23:51Um JMO is not that expensive. Neither is a lava. Neither is ETN. So, >> all right. So, we spent, you know, a

23:57good amount of time, 23 minutes talking through um those really interesting games to begin with. Boy, do I have some good news

24:03>> for fans at home who don't want to listen to a three-hour podcast >> on the back nine.

24:08>> The Buffalo Bills against the Houston Texans. Players I'm interested in in this game, the Texans defense. And you could talk me you could talk me into

24:18concade. I I could be talked into a little a little Darthur on concade but Shakir more James Cook in this spot. I

24:24mean even as leverage like if he's 10% owned like the the base algorithmic ownership on Run the Sims no chance for

24:32me. Josh Allen maybe and like so Josh Allen naked in the spy with a Saints Lions game stack and you just say he

24:42runs for three. Sure. I I guess I could I guess I could get to that, but that's it for me. And I don't think a single

24:47Texan is playable really.

24:51>> Yeah. I mean, maybe in some of the small field stuff like Nico and Cook get squeezed so hard that it would be semi-interesting.

25:02>> It's conceivable in like the $50 single entry that like seven teams have James Cook, >> right? So that kind of interests me like

25:11as Nico and Cook are studs, especially Cook is on a competent offense. I I do think that there's going to be just a lot of run plays in this

25:20game, a lot of competent defense being played.

25:23>> It's also going to be it's going to be like the good version of Raiders Dolphins where the game's over, right,

25:29>> in in 97 minutes, you know?

25:31>> Yeah. So, I'm this is mostly in a void, but I I I'm keeping an eye on Nico and Cook just for like could they

25:39potentially be really underplayed. And then the the other one play I probably do actually like here is Schultz. Um I expect he will be very unent.

25:48>> Uh yeah, because like people are going to want to play Jawan in that fun game.

25:52People are going to want to play Mayor for all the reasons you said. like Schultz will be the cheap tight end that

25:56actually projects quite nicely who I expect um will will be the clear third wheel of that trio. So he's he's probably a play I do legitimately like.

26:07You could um I guess I I could be talked into David Montgomery as like legitimately like a 3% style play because the Bills run defense like teams

26:17just except the thing is is the Bills give up explosive runs.

26:22>> Yeah.

26:24Like the way to beat the Bills is like the way to beat the Bills like outside runs like outside the tackles like

26:29explosive backs that can make big plays.

26:32Like >> it's and it's not like the it's not like the Texans have another option. Like it's not like Woody Marks is going to be

26:38doing that either. So, >> well, I mean Woody Marks conceptually is the explosive runner. It's just like when when you try and put the concept

26:46into practice and we found no explosive runs. File file was not found. I mean Straoud no interest honestly. Even Nico is like I would rather just play St.

26:56Brown even at three times the ownership.

26:58I I think you know there's just no replacement for points. Uh Baltimore Indianapolis your team now >> fun game.

27:05>> I I am interested in this one quite a bit because Derrick Henry is 6700 which feels to be about the lowest that

27:14Derrick Henry has opened this season in terms of of price. Zay Flowers is only 6,400 and Lamar I mean $3,900 Mark

27:23Andrews $6,800 Lamar Jackson. I would love to have a historical database to look this up. That's got to be some of

27:28the lowest combinatorial price for the Lamar Andrews stack of like all time.

27:35>> Yeah. I I mean, and that's that's part of the fun is you could you can do a very cheap Lamar stack if you want where

27:40you go like Lamar Baitman Andrews um and save yourself a lot of money to go and chase some of the bigger games, too.

27:47Yeah, I'm I'm into this game. I mean, 48 point total. I think maybe it comes down to like what do you expect out of the

27:53Colts offense? I mean, I'm a biased source here, but I expect them to be an effective offense. I I do. The Daniel

27:59Jones stuff has been really positive at training camp. Um, they seem to have Alec Pierce back to like I don't know if

28:08I want to say full health, but like enough health that I expect him to play his usual role and play 100% of the

28:13snaps. Uh, you know, I I think it's going to be a very fun game. Indoors, of course, always helps. So, I I think

28:22>> Lamar in a dome, man. Lamar in a dome.

28:25Yeah, I think it's kind of like an under underrated shootout game probably compared to like the the Dolph or the not the Dolphins, the Lions Saints like

28:36game.

28:36>> The algorithmic projected ownership for everyone in this game is pretty low. I mean, this is obviously going to look different on Sunday morning once the

28:43guys get like work through all of it, but this is just kind of the base. And I mean, I I bet 15% on Henry actually ends

28:50up being high. Draft DraftKings users just don't like playing Derrick Henry.

28:55They really don't.

28:56>> Yeah. Which is kind of I mean and they actually maybe should more because I know the perception stuff is bad, but

29:00he's so bonus friendly. So, it's it's actually not it's not it's not a bad idea to be interested in playing Derrick

29:07Henry. I I'd be I'd be open-minded to it. Um Colts defense this year, I'm interested to see what like what happens. Their their defense is so

29:14weird. They have theoretically a a very good duo of defensive tackles to stuff the run, but their edge rush rotation is

29:23horrific, but then their secondary should be amazing. So, like I don't really know exactly what to expect in terms of run pass splits, but it's going

29:29to be a really weird passing defense where I think they probably have one of the better secondaries in the league with um especially corner duos with

29:37Sauce Gardner and Shrevarious Ward. I I don't know whether that's going to consistently matter because their pass rush is going to be so anemic.

29:46>> Yeah. All right. What about your boys uh your Indianapolis Colts? We have got uh Jonathan Taylor. We have got one Mr.

29:54Joshua DS. We have got Keenan Allen.

29:57>> Keenan Allen man pretty pretty inexpensive here. Uh I mean Dimes I think is is playable there. I mean here you can see how bad the the rosters are

30:06set up. is that it's set up that Daniel there's a there's like a player ID thing where Daniel Jones >> it's because it's because some places

30:16like some player IDs have him as Daniel Jones some places have him as Daniel Jones III and some places have him as

30:24Dan Jones. It's a it's a it's a player >> Dan Jones.

30:27>> Yeah, >> Dan Jones. All right. Well, >> um I think I'll probably play um a lineup of Dan Jones this week. Um, I I

30:35think that the I'm willing to buy into him being healthy. I'm also very into buying Jonathan Taylor. Um, I I mean I

30:42expect he 7,300 that just seems like a pretty remarkable value considering like where he was going for most of the first

30:48half of last year and I I have pretty high expectations for this Colts offense in this game as I've said before. So,

30:55like I mean the other guy that I think is interesting, no one is going to have any interest in playing Alec Pierce with

31:01the injury vibes, but he's like a a fun tournament play at all times because he's always liable to catch a 70 yard

31:06touchdown. So, I don't know about Gold Star, but like, you know, compared to Luther Burton and Jameson Williams, who are

31:16like arch somewhat similar big play receivers at similar salaries in high total games, Pierce is obviously a far worse play than them, but he will be way

31:25less played than them. So, I'm I'm probably a little bit interested in that. I I'm obviously interested in playing Josh Downs.

31:32>> Are you? I I was I was gonna I was I was prepared for you to be a doomer DS. I

31:37was prepared for you to tell me.

31:38>> I because I thought I thought you were going to say, you know, at the start of the year, Keenan is fully healthy. This

31:43is as good as Keenan is going to be. And because Keenan because Keenan is good to go, this is going to be chain snatching

31:50season for old man, young man. And the time to get your Josh Downs fantasy points is going to be like six weeks

31:56from now after Keenan's body is aching.

31:59>> Oh man, I hope that's not the case. Um, I'm I mean, I'm probably more into playing Pierce than I am to playing DS.

32:05Um this uh I'm looking I'm just looking at the market shares right now and they have Keenan as it's the highest target

32:12share on the team. That will not be the case. I you know I got look I would love to dunk on Adam's like Tuesday morning

32:18guesses which is what this is right now.

32:20I I would you would you be truly surprised if Keenan Allen leads this team in in target share week one?

32:28>> Okay. Hey for me is helpful because obviously I have Josh Down's bags all over the place. So I I'm that is useful

32:35information. Um >> I mean >> for me >> I wouldn't be shocked but I would be surprised. I'll put it that way.

32:41>> That would be I would be surprised those two emotions. Jacob, the >> the reason I would be very surprised is

32:47that I don't think Keenan will play in almost any two receiver sets and I expect them to play a lot of two

32:52receiver sets. So, I I think that like Keenan's targets per route might be the highest of any receiver on the team, but

32:59it would need to be so much higher than Downs and Pierces for him to actually outtarget them on a consistent basis

33:05because I I do think that Downs and Pierce will be up in the 90s in terms of participation. And I think Keenan will

33:10be down in the 50s or 60s.

33:12>> Yeah, I think you're I think you are probably correct. Uh, all right. I I am into this game. I am into Lamar Andrews

33:18with a JT bringback. I I think you talked me off the ledge on downs and if I get a little bit of Keenan in my runs,

33:24I'm not going to to say no, I do think I do think Keenan is playable because if this game does turn in to a back and

33:31forth affair, that is obviously good for more um 11 personnel getting >> Dear Mario Douglas last night had seven targets, five catches, 20 yards. That's

33:40my projection for the Keenan Allen stat line.

33:42>> That's that's a very good Keenan Allen.

33:44Uh that's a very good Keenan Allen projection. All right. Uh All right. a game that's just very hard to talk about

33:50because there's just so little. I don't think we have any clue what the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to do on offense. 40 and a half total. Uh

33:56insanely low 16 12 point team total. Uh enjoy your fifth round Quinn Sean Judkins.

34:03>> I mean I was >> number one rush defense in the league.

34:06Yeah, I was gonna I was honestly I was going to say like uh you know have fun staying poor, but that that would also

34:12be me that I'm included in that list because I dude Quinn Sean Judkins if when you make a list of players who can

34:18have 30 rushes in a game you got to start with Judkins and then I am setting my lineups week one and I'm like good

34:23advice idiot. Good good advice. Yeah, I'm I'm glad that I took my Judkins exposure in baseball. Not even because he's a good pick, but because I don't

34:31have to experience placing him into my lineup against defense.

34:36>> We are in that Yahoo league together, the the the deathmatch league. And I did draft Quinn Sean Judkins in that league.

34:43And I'm legitimately looking at my lineup like, >> do I have to like do I have like why did I do this? I I did this to myself and I

34:50don't even know I don't even know why I did it. Uh none of the Browns receivers are playable to me. I'm I'm very

34:55interested in Conpion's week one usage.

34:59Like just very like I'm like I would love to see some short area stuff. I'd love to see some ender rounds, you know,

35:04things like that. But I I I I shant be him in week one. Uh any any interest in the duckfooted king?

35:12>> No, I think I have other options I want to go with at tight end that don't have don't play on 16 white team totals. So

35:19I'll probably avoid Fannon. Um I I mean if you wanted to make an argument for Fannon that the Jacksonville lost Stephan Lloyd um and

35:28so they're going to have a pretty interesting rotation of linebackers.

35:31Maybe that helps Fannon. Um Conpsion would be the only guy in the Browns that moderately interests me, but I probably will think better of it.

35:40>> Yeah. Uh all right. Well, hey, I mean floor is yours. Explain why as a eight-point favorite that Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a is a bad play.

35:50Someone's got to do it.

35:52>> I'm not convinced he's a bad play.

35:53>> I'm not convinced he's a bad play either. He's actually >> I uh I thought it was a good troll. I

35:59did my pre-week one hitchhiker guide and I kind of picked like one image to put in, you know, for each division just so

36:05it wasn't like a block of text and I I decided to go with the Kentucky Chris Rodriguez image. U just to remind people

36:12in case they forgot that this was Liam Cohen's boy. Um, I'll I'll ask you, my quant, you're now my quant after the Eli

36:21Ridan call last night. Uh, I'm on a a very zerorb uh-ish main event team and uh we're debating on who to start

36:33between Jonathan Brooks, Rashad White, and Chris Rodriguez. And I've been advocating Chris Rodriguez on that team.

36:40What what's say you quant?

36:42>> I think I would do I think I would do C-rod because you have your widest range of positive outcomes there because the

36:49thing that you can get right in this game is Toutton actually is the starter.

36:55Tuton gets the first goal line crack or whatever. But they have 38 team rushing attempts because Deshun Watson has thrown three interceptions. Quinnon

37:05Judkins is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. um and you just win anyways. Uh conversely, you can just be right that he is the, you know, the the lead rusher

37:16for for this team. The Browns defense, we're also used to >> the last couple years has been well, yeah, teams are going to run against the

37:23Browns because they're going to be up, but like the defense itself is actually pretty good and that is that's gone.

37:28They're they're they're terrible.

37:30They're just going to be awful at at everything. Um, so I think you can I think you can most certainly play I

37:36think you you can definitely get away with either of them too nor C-rod and ownership is going to be non-existent on

37:44both of them because I think every major projections provider is basically just going to hedge cut. Yeah, it's just it's just going to be hedge. I mean if

37:51anything it'll >> I'm willing I'm willing to bet that run the Sims will have the highest projector in the industry on Chris Rodriguez and

37:56the lowest projector in the industry on Vial Toton if I >> you know what I I I would not take that

38:01bet. I would I would most certainly I would most certainly not take that, but I would say that's probably I'd say

38:05that's probably priced appropriately.

38:08Now, the wide receivers, I mean, I I think this question is specifically directed towards me, but uh Parker Washington 5600.

38:17>> I mean, brother, >> this might be the lowest he's priced all season.

38:23>> Yeah. I mean, this is the chance, right?

38:25I feel like, you know, with super uncertain wideband player, all that stuff, like a lot of qu the a lot of the

38:32hype is based on, you know, kind of the plans of the team in week one.

38:37I mean, as far as I'm concerned, the best possible time to play that kind of bet is week one DFS, right? So, I'm I'll

38:47be playing I'll be playing Parker Washington. I'll I'll be I'll be entertaining Jacksonville like Trevor Lawrence Stacks here. Um because yeah

38:55like the team the game environment is going to be brutal but uh we saw with Jacksonville like towards the la latter

39:02half of the season like they were willing to just blow teams out and and Liam Con was like this with the Bucks

39:06too like if they if they're rolling they'll just roll over teams. So I'm not too concerned about that and I think

39:12their offense there's no reason to think it wouldn't have success against a Browns defense that stinks. So I I'm pretty into the Jags passing game side

39:21of this. I'm I'm probably less interested in parsing the running backs largely because I'm probably airing to Crod having more work than people think

39:31rather than Tuton having more work than people think. Um and that's kind of like unhelpful for DFS because I don't necessarily want to play a a Chris

39:41Rodriguez who I think has been appropriately priced with a 1% target share here in in our inputs. Um, so if I'm playing Jags, Browns, I probably

39:51want to play Lawrence Washington.

39:54Maybe just a single. I don't know. Uh, maybe you could tack on like Brett and Strange. Uh, I'm definitely not playing

39:59Jacobe freaking Myers. And I don't I don't know if I'm in on BTJ week one or not.

40:05>> I The thing I would love in this game would be for Parker Washington to have six for 98 and one and feel great about

40:14that, but for Brian Thomas Jr. to have four for 84 in one and just like look great and have like one either one very

40:22acrobatic deep down the field contested catch situation where he looks great or even better like a 17yard like crosser or like deep post where he then yaks his

40:33way uh down the field. I mean actually some yak would be huge and just any kind of crossing middle of the field

40:40nonalligator arms outcome for Brian Thomas Jr. would be awesome. No real interest in Brenton Strange for me.

40:48>> I think uh this is a good test of the of the of the Parker Washington thesis right this week because the Browns are

40:54bad defense with an elite corner.

40:56>> So if the thesis is Brian Thomas is only there to occupy elite quarterbacks and then Parker Washington's the guy they

41:03want to throw to. So is BTJ a big part of the target tree or is he just like using up Denzel Ward so that Parker

41:12Washington can eat? We're gonna find out. Yeah. Um, all right. The Atlanta Falcons against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

41:19Now, fairly interesting here. Bejian Robinson coming off of being the number two overall pick in 9 million fantasy football drafts. Less than 10% owned.

41:28Drake London less than 10% owned. I mean, everyone expects Tua to big time stink in this game. But what I am

41:35presupposing is what if he doesn't? What if he doesn't stink? I mean, he probably will, but uh the the ownership discrepancy between Bejian and Gibbs is

41:43going to be quite wide.

41:46>> Yeah, I think Tua stinks.

41:49>> He does.

41:50>> I think he stinks. Um, I I'm probably open-minded to playing like maybe London more than I am actually Bejon because I

41:59I expect people to have very like all of the all of the takes that I've just seen on Twitter since Tua was name starter

42:06was like Bejon up, Pitts up, London down. Um, and that's probably true, but anything can happen in a oneweek sample.

42:16And it's not like London is incapable of working as a short area target. So, he's the one I I expect that like whatever

42:22his algorithmic ownership is, I think that the true vibes based ownership will be much lower. And at 6,500, like, you know, this is a guy that we drafted

42:32ahead of Chris Ave all summer, priced below Chris Ave. He's going to be owned way less than Chris Ave for good reason.

42:39I get the matchup matters, but um I think that that's an interesting spot.

42:43So, I I'll have some interest in Drake London. Um that's probably the only guy I have of interest in on the Falcons.

42:48Like Pit's fine play. I have other tight ends I want to play. Bejon I I think is a totally interesting call for sure.

42:54Like he will be way less owned than Gibbs. I I just I plan to play a lot of Gibbs regardless of ownership. I also

42:58plan to play Taylor more than I'm more interested in playing Bejon, I think. Um given the the difference in game environment there. So that's probably

43:06where I land. What about you? Are you playing a lot of Bejon?

43:08>> I probably I probably literally won't click him once. It just feels like there's going to be Bejon games. This one doesn't feel like it. I mean, if I

43:15get to if we get to Sunday morning and his ownership is 7.8% and Gibbs is 37.2%, then, you know, and the computer says,

43:26"Hey, they're they're close enough," then then I will, but it's not something I'm heading into the slate wanting to put my thumb on the scale. There is a

43:34situation here where I would be interested putting my thumb on the scale and it would be the reverse of the way

43:38the base shares are here which would be to play Dowel over Jaylen Warren because I do just think for the Falcons are

43:45probably going to be terrible. there's gonna be a ton of expected points available for the Steelers backfield.

43:50And it just it would just be so Mike McCarthy so fitting like it just the whole thing to just be like, "Yeah, man.

43:58Jaylen Mo's a backup for his whole career despite everyone on the internet thinking he's a hidden superstar." And Rico Dattle gets 22 touches here.

44:06>> I'm with you. I uh I mean, I think John Warren is good, but I'm I'm definitely more interested in the dowel side of

44:15things. um for this week. I I think he is like he's he's my my like of all of the ambiguous running back situations, I

44:25think this is the one I would have the most interest in diving into in week one DFS because I think that Atlanta stinks.

44:31I think their defense mega stinks after losing Jaylen Walker and James Pierce.

44:35So I I would be not surprised at all if one of the Pittsburgh running backs has a real ceiling here. And then I I had

44:41lean dowel um just based on kind of the reporting that he that he is, you know, potentially going to be the guy with the

44:49lead rushing work, the the lead goal line role. So, you know, where Warren could have his weeks obviously, if that's correct, is is in the receiving

44:56game, but this is probably a game I expect them to lead. So, I I lean dowel.

45:00Um I'll probably have some dowel lineups. Um, I I know this might disappoint you after I forced him on to some of our main event teams, but I I

45:08probably won't be playing much DK Metaf or Steelers pass catchers in DFS this week.

45:14>> You know, I think I think that is I think that's totally fine. Doesn't seem like a game that we're going to get 42

45:19Aaron Rogers pass attempts. Um, I if I was going to play anyone, I maybe before Mayor became so obvious, I maybe could

45:26have been tempted and do Frith at 3,400, but >> no chance that I'll be playing that. Uh now, all right, prepare me.

45:33>> Oh, wow. What a game.

45:35>> Prepare me to take you down to to this.

45:37I will be the only person brave enough to say uh that that this game presents one of my favorite opportunities, which

45:44is the New York Jets trying to play >> against the Tennessee Titans. I mean, yes, it obviously is AD Mitchell, but

45:51Gino Smith is 4600, Garrett Wilson is 4,800, and Adnai Mitchell is 4,000. A Gino double would allow you to play a

46:00Jir Gibbs, Jamar Chase, >> Aman Rosane Brown lineup pretty pretty easily. Um, >> in >> Yeah, I just like sold >> and and this is a matchup that the Jets

46:11can like very reasonably expect to win.

46:14This is a bad team that they are playing against and we have seen Mr. Smith win kept clean. I mean, this is uh this is

46:22our our boy Scott Barrett's favorite status that basically no quarterback is more pressure sensitive in the entire National Football League than Gino

46:29Smith. I mean, I'm not going to pretend to give you guys a scouting report of the Titans defensive line. I'm going to

46:33assume their ass, though, because they're because they're the >> Well, they have Jeff Simmons, who's a total >> I do know who that is. I do know who

46:40that is. I do know Jeff Simmons.

46:42>> I I'm not totally sure how much they have outside of him. Well, actually, I think that they signed Was it Oh my god.

46:49We are We are not your quants on the defensive side of the ball. I I want to say they signed Roy Robertson Harris. Is

46:55that or or no? Was it They signed a guy with three names who played for the Denver Broncos last year.

47:01>> John Franklin Meyers.

47:03>> John Franklin Meyers. There we go.

47:05That's the one. Um and he's and but he's like another kind of like interior tweener type. So I don't know if they

47:12have like true edge rushing talent, but they they might be able to generate interior pressure. That actually might be a bit of a problem for the Jets

47:19because they have better tackles than they have interior offensive line. So that would be maybe how this fails. Last year at least though um

47:29the last year at least uh the Titans were a big pass funnel because they had legitimate run stuffing talent. They their secondary was a mess. I don't know

47:38if that's going to be fixed with Robert Solah some of the personnel changes.

47:41Maybe it is. But um like if you expect that to continue, I would be more on your side of playing this through like

47:47Gino, Garrett, AD, less so Bree Hall, but I I mean $6,200 Breeze Hall against the Titans like that also has a lot of

47:54interest for me.

47:55>> So good, dude. Onslaught it. Onslaught it. Play play Gino >> Jets onslaught. Oh my god.

48:01>> I just like I mean we're talking like cumulative ownership like Gino will not even get to 1%. Bree will will be sub

48:095%. Garrett Wilson. I mean, if he is going to project for even 13 points unowned, people are playing a lav over

48:19him. People are playing JO over him.

48:21There there's so many plays people would rather play. Ad Mitchell might not even get to 1% in the spy or whatever. I

48:28mean, and you can definitely count me down uh for for for one of those. I And maybe this will just be a classic like

48:35you got to respect the projections. the projections are capturing this stuff properly. But I think it's so easy to see how these projections can be wrong.

48:45Like so so obvious to see how they can be how they can be wrong because there's just an assumption that Gino Smith is

48:51bad, but he might not actually be bad.

48:53He might be he might be fine. He might be 2024 Gino. I mean, if Garrett's not smashing at 5,800 against the Titans,

49:00then he was a terrible >> Maybe he's a terrible pick >> because I mean, he's he has the same price as like, you know, J Mo and Alec

49:07Pierce and Burden and like a bunch of these guys that he was drafted ahead of in seasonal fantasy. He gets a great

49:14matchup. It's week one, so it's when you'd expect Omar Cooper and Kenyan Sadique to be least involved. There's no Cade Clubnick on the horizon yet. Like,

49:22this is every everything is set up perfectly for Garrett. And so, yeah, you should expect him to to outperform the guys he was drafted ahead of. So, I'm

49:30I'm in on this.

49:32>> Yes. Um, okay. Anyone I mean, do you want to do you want to float uh Carnell Tate? Is there is there anything that's

49:40interesting to you about about playing any Tennessee Titan?

49:44>> No, I won't be playing Tennessee Titans.

49:46I mean, like, do I have to like do I feel obligated to say that Tony Pard probably projects reasonably well? I I guess, but

49:56>> I just don't I don't know if he does because the preseason usage kind of indicated that Pard and Spears are not

50:03like a Cororum Chairen situation or or even an assigned roles. It's just kind of they're just interchangeable and one they might just end up what with a 55 45

50:15split and 55% of the running back work for the Titans. It's just not that appealing to me.

50:20>> I mean, you want to talk about guys who if you don't want to play them this week, they were a bad pick. I mean, if

50:24you're not if you have no interest in playing Tony Pard in week one against the Jets at home, like I mean, talk

50:32about hand on shoulder for anyone picking Tony Pard to manage the leagues.

50:37I was pretty done drafting Tony Pard by like the last month of the season. I was like, "What am I hoping to accomplish

50:43here?" You know, I'm I'm I think Tony Pard is what it is. I've got >> You weren't taking Tony Pard as your RB6

50:50on the six running back team.

50:55>> I got out of the Matrix.

50:56>> End up with Tony Pard.

50:58>> I'm I'm the one. I'm the one, dude. I had to I had to escape.

51:03>> Uh Okay. Well, this is actually quite interesting. The Arizona Cardinals traveling to play against the Los Angeles Chargers because any kind of

51:12weird bounce of the ball in this game, an early Justin Herbert mistake, a special team snafu wherein the score is

51:22close at halftime. If this score is 14-10 at half Chargers, if it's going into the third quarter and it's 2117,

51:32I mean, everyone in this game is a smash on on the Chargers side of the ball.

51:37Hampton's a smash, Lad's a smash, is a smash, Herbert's a smash. They're all mega smashes if we get four quarters here. And frankly,

51:46I am looking at the siren song of Marvin Harrison Jr. at 5,000 and I'm looking at it and it is calling to me, brother.

51:52It's calling. It's I I I I feel it in my bones.

51:57>> I'm with it. Um yeah, I think this is a really fun game for DFS because I this these are two of the teams with

52:07some of the most uncertain roles all around. And uh that's a great spot for week one. Like yeah, there's a good

52:15chance you're going to be wrong, but if you have a hunch, bet into the hunch.

52:19And there's a lot of possibility that these are all teams that are priced very very differently in a couple weeks. So,

52:24you know, Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison are priced right next to each other, both way behind Trey McBride. If you have a hunch that this passing game

52:32could run through either of those two players, like I think both of them are very, very interesting. I am like I'm probably I'm definitely betting

52:42on Harrison more over the course of the season. Um I'm probably more interested in playing him here. I'm open-minded to the idea that like in week one some of

52:50the like kind of Shanny McVey concepts they might want to run could be run through Michael Wilson. So I could see

52:56him as a play too, but I probably am more inclined to play Harrison just kind of based on my longer view

53:05evaluation of these two. And then on the Charger side like which we'll get to. I mean, tons of interesting decision points, but yeah, I think that I think

53:13that the Cardinals uh receivers are both of interest to me. I I won't be doing Jeremiah Love. Um just, you know, I

53:21think that's fancy. We don't need to do that yet. Let's just see what the role is and then probably play a lot of them

53:26soon. Um and I I wouldn't be probably spending up for Trey McBride this week with how much value there is at tight

53:32end.

53:33>> Yeah.

53:34on the Chargers side of the ball. If I if I was if I were to make a bold claim here on the on the Chargers side of the

53:41ball, it would be >> Hampton is should project for like 22 points in in this spot because I don't think >> one even if I'm right about the missile,

53:53which even if I am right might not even come in this game because he's coming back banged up. He's not a salt away a

54:0114-point lead uh style style guy. I mean, he might get a couple extra rushes or whatever, but that's more likely to

54:08either go to Videl or just be Hampton just pounding at the end of the game.

54:14But, I mean, we know McDaniel offense is great for running backs. Harbaugh offenses, I mean, if he if he has anything to say about it, he would love

54:22to just give Amarian Hampton 35 rushes in this game. And if you're kind of just throwing your hands up on like Trey

54:29Harris, Lad Mani, QJ, Kar, like I don't even really know what we're doing here.

54:34I mean, it should just all flow to to Amari and Hampton.

54:38>> Agreed. He's a total smash player.

54:41>> Um >> Yeah, he's he might be my favorite running back play of the week outside of Jir Gibbs.

54:47>> Yeah. Yeah. And I I not a situation I expected myself to to be in coming into round one or coming into to slate one

54:55week one, but man is it just all setting up for him. And Lad is just a bit too expensive for me. Like I I I think he's

55:02a fine play, but like I would rather play Garrett Wilson than Lad Maki even with their discrepancy in team total and

55:07matchup.

55:09>> Yeah, I think that I would as well. Um, you know, again, like I was drafting Garrett Wilson ahead of Lad all summer

55:15and Lad is in a good spot, but Garrett's also in a great spot and so like I'm going to try to, you know, play that

55:20angle for week one. So, I I prefer Garrett. Um, but I think, you know, Chargers, pass catchers and backfield. I mean, this is the most

55:29ambiguous offense in the league because they have so many potentially talented skilled guys. Very few though that anyone is like 100% sure is super

55:38talented. And so I I'm just fascinated to see the roles here. Um I I don't know that I would end up playing any other

55:44skill guys, but like QJ4700 is probably somewhat interesting if you're a believer that he is closer to the wide receiver one spot than it appears.

55:52Hampton we mentioned and then uh $2,500 starting tight end.

55:57>> You're he's really cheap at QJ. Like I'll give you guys an example. A really rich person who's played a lot of DFS

56:03would much rather play QJ at 4,700 than Adnai Mitchell for $4,000 DraftKings dollars. Like I I'll just tell you guys that right now. And you can do with that

56:12information what you will. Now I I have to ask $2,500 Colar Bear. I I mean >> I think I think I I'll

56:21>> Mayor opening up obviously changes it a a good degree, but I do think I will be playing a minimum of one Coler P. I may

56:30I mean it's still hard for me. I I I might just say okay every single tight end I play this week is one of Jawan

56:36Mayor Schultz but Kler is interesting.

56:40>> Yeah. I mean 2500 for potentially >> like let's say he does the Eli Raren and just has one catch for one yard and a

56:47touchdown.

56:48>> That works.

56:49>> It it works. Um and you've got upside for two. You've got upside for So Raren Ren got 7.2. So So 14.4 for that. I

56:59mean, that definitely works for for Kar.

57:01>> If if Kar scores, it will literally be on that play. It will be the the play action leak wherein he is completely

57:07uncovered in the back of the end zone.

57:09Um but yeah, I mean again, Luther Burden, Gold Star, but uh potent I mean Hampton is going to be such chalk. This

57:167.2% ownership will be like 15%. But Gold Star adjacent for me. Uh a game that I hope is awesome. I mean, if I

57:26could wish cast one of these games going over the total and just being like fun back and forth, it would so be Dolphins

57:32Raiders because it means like Achain smashing, Gent smashing, Malik Willis's cooking, running. We get like one cool highlight, Chris Bell play, something

57:43something like that. Um, no plays for me on on the Dolphin side of the game. I mean, you could talk me into a Chan. I I

57:50guess I don't know. Why don't you try and talk? wouldn't consider a naked Willis.

57:55>> I don't think so cuz cuz you know Reeves always says this but the the will like the rushing quarterback stuff is it

58:01gives you really good floor but it's just hard to have a mega smash if you can't also throw for 252.

58:08>> Um I don't even see Chris Bell listed here but is he minric?

58:12>> Um I assume he is min price. I I can go I can go pull that up right now.

58:18I I if he was Min Price, would you be interested in playing him?

58:23>> Yeah. Yeah, I would.

58:24>> All right. Well, let's look this up right now on draftkings.com. Chris Bell is >> 3200 DraftKings dollars basically been priced.

58:35>> Uh I I don't know if I'll actually play him, but that would be the only Dolphin I consider playing.

58:40>> Yeah. Yeah, I think that I think that's about right. Well, let's uh Genty to me looks phenomenal. 6600. I'm not

58:50expecting I I think What was the What was the rap sheet quote? Mike Washington Jr. is going to be quote a thing.

58:57I'd like to press X to doubt on Mike Washington Jr. being a thing. I mean, maybe he gets like six rushes. I don't

59:05know. But will he really I mean, Gent is just so much better than him. I What's your What's your read there? I mean,

59:12it's just tough because it's it's it's an injury issue, right? So, I I don't I don't know what to expect. Like, I

59:18wouldn't be that surprised if they're like, "Hey, Genti is coming back from injury. We're just going to do this as a

59:2250/50 for week one. We'll take it from there." Um I I He's an interesting play. I I mean, both Genty and Achan are interesting

59:31because they're both super talented running backs at kind of affordable prices in pretty good matchups.

59:39I I don't think I will play Genty. I like like in terms of the expensive running backs, he's definitely behind Taylor,

59:47definitely behind Hampton. He's definitely behind Gibbs.

59:50I I don't know that I will get there because I think that the downside risk is pretty extreme with with Mike

59:55Washington mixing in based on some of the ankle stuff, but I I could totally see how it works out. I mean, if if the

60:02ankle stuff had never happened, Genty would be like so my gold star play week one. So, I I get it. Um, but I don't

60:09know. I find a little bit I find it a little bit sketchy.

60:13>> It's a little It's a little bit sketchy, but you are I think going to get a reduction in ownership as as a result. I

60:20don't think he's going to I don't think he'll project that crazy. I think you'll get a reduction ownership. I think you'll get a reduction of people on

60:27fantasy football podcast saying that Ashton Genty is a is a really good play.

60:32And also people will just decide, hey, I'm already playing their $2,900 tight end, Michael Mayer, so why don't I just

60:42play my one Raider and and just move on there. I mean, that is probably just about how it's going to go.

60:48>> That's that's a very fair point. Yeah.

60:50>> Yeah. Um, do you happen to have the the offon mayor Bower stuff?

60:58>> I don't.

60:59>> It's pretty It's pretty good. I I can I can pull it up on Flock, but it's going to take like three minutes because I

61:04always forget how to do it. So, we're going to skip it. How about this?

61:07>> Yeah, his ro's always been good. He's not been as productive as you'd want really like in terms of raw production,

61:13but that's because the offense has always been a total disaster that really only Bowowers can transcend and frankly barely at times. Last year

61:19>> he had very good he had a couple very good games with him out last year and then two like absolute stinkers where he was

61:28owned.

61:30I I'll probably rank Mayor as like a top 12 tight end this week, like at least between 10 and 15, something like that.

61:35>> I I did I did I already updated my rankings and I ranked him as the 13th overall tight end in in reddraft.

61:42>> That sounds this week. Just one spot below Eli Renen.

61:49>> Yeah, I I guess it it comes down to >> is the what is it the 700 or the $800 difference between mayor and Jawan? What

61:58do you get with that $800? Cuz even with even with um Bowers out, Jawan is still going to project

62:06marginally better, right?

62:10>> Yeah. You get game environment and I think you get ceiling. Um like I think you you just get a you just get a game

62:17environment that's going to have a lot more points. And I also think you got a player in Jawan Johnson who is able to

62:24get like 25 30 yard catches in a way that most tight ends are not. I I just really like Jawan Johnson. I' I've

62:32always been a fan of his. So um he's he's probably my preference, but I would definitely I'll definitely have Mayor lineups, of course. Um I do expect Mayor

62:42will be more owned, right?

62:43>> Yes. Uh, by the way, I've got the split for the last couple years since since he was drafted.

62:50>> 10.9 PPR points per game, four and a half receptions, 0.25 touchdowns, six targets, 49 yards in four games played with uh without Mr. Bowers. So, pretty

63:01good. Pretty I mean that's four four is just kind of your classic minric tight end um odds is is basically basically

63:11how that >> how that works out. Uh oh, that's on the wrong tab. That's the sim tab. And now we have got the Green Bay Packers

63:19against the Minnesota Vikings.

63:21>> Boy, boy, would I love a Matthew Golden 4 for 106 and a touchdown in this game.

63:29I would be I would be loving that.

63:33>> I mean, you can play your Packers doubles pretty pretty inexpensively here with Jordan Love 5700. Uh, if you don't want to spend up for Christian Watson,

63:44that's fine. You can play $4,900 Jaden Raid, $4,700 Matthew Golden, $4,500 Tucker Craft. I mean, that is really intriguing to me. Um, especially because

63:55I'm curious as as Mike Quant, like I assume Marshon Lloyd is going to be very owned at 4,800.

64:04>> I actually don't think he will be. I think getting through getting getting through all this slate, >> there is enough FUD about his role. I

64:12mean, the the running back coach said this week, they said, "Yeah, it's gonna be running back by committee." Uh floor said, "Yeah,

64:17>> 24 teams in the NFL, but all right."

64:19>> Well, the floor specifically said yesterday, he said, "Yeah, we want to see what Caleb Johnson has. We want to we want to give him some rushes. He's

64:25gonna be active. We're gonna play him."

64:27>> Oh, they confirmed he's going to be active.

64:29>> I mean, I let me let me look. I guess he didn't say active, but he said, >> "Oh god, >> the Davis Madak lying gimmick is so

64:37annoying when it like hurts my interests."

64:40>> Caleb Johnson on Matt Laflur on if Caleb Johnson could help week one. Yes, he's done a nice job. It does help there was

64:46some carryover not only from when he was with at Iowa with Tim Lester, but also having Arthur Smith in Pittsburgh. Um

64:54that that to me says he's going to play.

64:57>> Okay. All right. I like your lying version of the quote better, but the actual version of the quote was >> but still saying he can help us. Yes.

65:04And then naming like, "Oh, why did we trade a six round pick for him?" Oh, it's because which is a great I mean that's great.

65:12>> Neba isn't bullish. Neba doesn't bullish.

65:14>> Absolutely bullish. Yeah. So, you've got that. You've got the Vikings defense is pretty good. Pretty good against the run.

65:22>> Everyone says the the Packers offensive line is bad. You don't really need the salary this week. the salaries like there's not a huge crunch be very

65:29different if it was week nine.

65:32>> I I don't think it is trending towards Marshon Lloyd being Gigachock at all. I I would say 10 to 15%. I I started out

65:40>> just a good play then. I think >> Yeah. Yeah. And and that could be that could be a little that could be a little

65:46low, but I don't I don't really I don't really think so. I I think that is honestly right about right about right.

65:52And I do think he's okay. I will say it'll be very interesting to see how everyone how much everyone believes the

65:58the what they were spewing with the Jacob suspension was you should really be moving Jordan Love up your rankings.

66:04What if the answer is just to draft Christian Watson? Like I'll be very interested to see if people really believe that because my guess is they

66:10don't. My guess is is that Watson, Reed, and Golden and Craft will all be sub 10%.

66:16Well, I I believe that. Um because this is the game that features my Matthew Golden Star play.

66:26>> Wow, folks. That's why he's That's why he's Jacob Sanderson. That's why he's thinking about I did mix up Roy Roberts and Harris with

66:34John Franklin Meyers, but I I could I had the pun ready for golden star play.

66:39So, >> you got me. hopefully the first of many this year cuz he is he's literally >> could you imagine last year that that in

66:472026 we'd sit here on September 10th of 2026 and um Matthew Golden my highest owned uh best baseball uh pick this

66:58year.

66:59>> I I would have on you could have asked me that three months ago and I would have said no no way no chance um on

67:07Yeah. No, I think I think Golden is phenomenal. I I think that Jordan Love doubles are quite good. They will be uh

67:14almost almost utterly unown. This game is indoors. It's in a dome. And uh I mean, buddy, it's it's like we never

67:20left. Justin Jefferson coming in with, you know, 28% of a team's passing offense and singledigit ownership at 7,300. I'm I'm big time willing to buy

67:29on this one because if Justin Jefferson has like a capital J capital Jeff Justin Jefferson game. I mean his ownership will like

67:40>> and it's crazy because obviously we know Kyler can have these nuclear games and maybe it will just be Carson Wentz part

67:47two and he'll just like look awful and like they'll just kind of limp around and the offense will suck. But man, you

67:53are not being asked to pay for it this week. They this they will be so so low on both of them.

68:00>> Totally. I Yeah, definitely agree. And Jefferson Jefferson is pretty darn interesting on a slate with a whole lot of elite wide receivers completely off

68:08the slate. He's he's one of the few that are on it and that has a chance to like legitimately match the ceiling of an

68:15Almond Raw St. Brown or of a Jamar Chase. So, um we'll see. I mean, I my gut feel is I'm going to like all

68:23aspects of this game quite a bit. Like I this this probably will be my second highest played game.

68:30>> Okay, that's I don't think that will be very popular. I think that will be unique. I think most people will do

68:35Marshon Lloyd if anything and then maybe some Justin Jefferson as a as a one-off.

68:40But I I really like it. I I think it's a great angle and I think it's a way to get off the Detroit New Orleans Giga

68:45Mega Chalk. I mean, yeah, you know, similar in >> I love I love that game. I think it's more I'm I'm not I'm not probably going

68:52to be as into the Cincy Tampa game as the as I expect the market to be. Um and then I I I do think that these offenses

69:01are pretty underrated by the market like genuinely. So I'm I'm pretty into this one. I'm I'm obviously going to play a

69:05lot of Tampa or a lot of Detroit New Orleans.

69:08>> Yes. Uh all right, final game. The Washington Commanders traveling to the Philadelphia Eagles. a game that I think you can wish cast and be like, "Oh man,

69:19Daniels versus Herz, new offensive coordinators, we got JCM, Barklay's healthy, and then this is going to be it's going to be the Sunday afternoon

69:27and it's going to be >> You led that with we got JCM."

69:30>> What? It's going to be Saquon.

69:32>> All the stars are out.

69:33>> 3.8 yards per carry. Oh, Devont Smith maybe looking a little bit more like Skinny Robin than Skinny Batman. Oh, and

69:40Terry McLuren. Oh, and Stefan Diggs is yelling on the sideline. And Terry McLuren is is also seeming and oh well okay and it's uh and the game ends and

69:50it's 13 to10. I'm I'm worried this game sucks.

69:54>> Yeah, I'm probably not playing much from Washington here. I'm I'm overall still maintain my bullishness on Washington compared to the market season long. I

70:02don't have that much bullishness for them in this specific matchup against Philly. So probably out on everyone here, frankly. Um, I'm interested to see

70:10what the running back split is, but I don't think it's like a DFS level decision point for me. It's much more of

70:16a a man good. The Eagles defense is just not going to let you run on them.

70:20>> Yeah.

70:21>> Right. So, I'm more interested in learning information about the watch the running back roles than I am in playing them. Uh, the Eagles I I could play some

70:29Eagles.

70:31>> Which ones? I mean, which which ones are you? Well, one one of the two one of the two Eagles >> probably.

70:38>> Um, okay. Actually, this I'm curious to get your take on the really weird offside call on the tush push last

70:45night. Is this a legitimate dock for Jaylen Herz? If the NFL is trying to are the is the NFL trying to trying to red

70:53tape the tush push out of existence with makebelieve penalties. Um, so there is this there there's an analogy I can draw

71:01on here where they do this every year in the English Premier League where they will have a point of emphasis >> and they'll the refs will just call it

71:08every time for like the first two weekends just like and then they completely forget about it. And I wonder I wonder if that's what's happening here

71:16where it's like, "Hey man, you we swear you can't move before the snap on the tush bush. We triple dog swear if you do

71:22it we're going to penalize you every time." and then they do it like twice and the coaches complain so much that

71:28they're like, "Ah, [ __ ] it." Like, "No, let's let's actually just not do that."

71:31And if anything, I mean, the tush push last year was just like straight up not as effective for them. Like, it was not

71:38it was not enough for them. They need they need they need more ingenuity. They They need more explosiveness in in the offense um

71:47than just Yeah. than just doing that.

71:49And uh if they they found it, I guess it would be I mean what I mean it's trading AJ Brown coming off his worst yards per

71:56route run season ever for Mai Lemon and having Dantavian Wixs play in an expanded Quiz Watkins role.

72:05>> Uh yeah. Um I think probably Barkley is like the most interesting play here in a vacuum, but I just like Hampton more and

72:14I like Taylor more and I think I even like Henry more. So, I don't know if I'll get on Barkley. And then Smith,

72:20it's like I think there's Yeah, like I'm I I'm either just gonna spin up for the big boys or I'm gonna play a lava or or

72:28I I probably just like Daryl Wilson more straight up. Honestly, >> yeah. I I don't I I I wonder I mean,

72:35maybe I could play Diggs here again. As healthy as Diggs is going to be, don't think this is going to be a great

72:40running spot for them. Um, you know, I wish I had it in me to say 22 rushes, 88 yards, two touchdowns for JCM, but I I I

72:49that that result would please me greatly, but I don't I don't think it is a result that I can see happening um at

72:54a at a good clip here. So, there we go.

72:57We have ran through all of the games on the main slate. And now we will head on over to draftkings.com. We will build an

73:04entry in the Millionaire Maker. And as always, someone who comments, if we win, I'm going to ship you uh what did I say

73:10was 10%. Yeah, sure. 10 10% of a million dollars if we if we ship this comment down below. Um all right, man. Choice is

73:19yours. You're a guest in my doicile.

73:22>> Um All right. I will I will select I'll select Matthew Golden. Um you know, I I will never recover from Pete sniping me

73:30in the spike draft. Um I can't get sniped this time, so I'll I'll put Matthew.

73:34>> All right, dude. Then we are just going to they are just going to fully >> we're just going to fully commit to the

73:40bit then and I'm going to do the stack on the other side of that game and we're going to do Kyler Murray and Justin

73:45Jefferson.

73:47>> All right. Uh I will I'll get us back uh on responsible territory here. I'll click Jir Gibbs.

73:54>> Uh okay. Well, there we go. That's beautiful. And I think with that combinatorial uniqueness, I think we have earned oursel a Michael Mayer at at

74:032900. I don't think we have to be scared of of chalkiness here at all.

74:08>> All right. Uh, so you put Michael Mayer in the tight end slot, but that has not addressed the flex spot. I will I will

74:15do some salary saving for us and I'll take another tight end, Mr. Jawan Johnson.

74:19>> You know, I actually after going through the slate, talking through all the games, it had become very normal, very, very pass to do the

74:29double tight end last year. Everyone just acknowledges tight ends are underpriced by a little bit compared to wide receivers with similar projections.

74:35I don't think people are going to play that this week at all. I think it'll generally be running back. I think

74:40people will play running back in that slot. So, let's just toss in a defense here. What is the Houston Texans defense

74:48cost? Okay, that I'm sorry, dude. 2,900 for the Texans defense even in the spot is crazy. We can now effectively play

74:56whoever whoever we want. Um we might might even need to readress one of these. Uh we could even probably spend up more defense, but I'll I'll take a

75:04Marian Hampton.

75:05>> All right, so we'll do a Marian Hampton.

75:07We will put in uh Jamar Chase and then instead we Oh my goodness gracious. The Pittsburgh Steelers defense against poor

75:16Tua Aloa. Uh rest in peace buddy. Kyler Murray, Jamir Gibbs, Omarian Hampton, Matthew Golden, Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase, Michael Mayer, Jawan Johnson, the

75:26Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Comment down below uh what should we comment down below your gold star play to potentially win uh 10% of a million

75:35dollars after this team easily wins $1 million. Jacob, what do you have going on as we are starting the season over at

75:43Thinking About Thinking? What is your inseason plan looking like? Yeah. So, basically this week is a little weird because of the weekday games and like

75:51there's no games to react to, but my my regular inseason plan, which will be kind of in full force starting next

75:58week, will be I will have the hitchhiker's guide column up um focusing on backfields, movement, injuries, performance, etc. That'll be up every

76:09Tuesday morningish. I'll have a very brief kind of waiver priority list recommendations up shortly after that on Tuesdays. Uh, the busy Tuesdays

76:18continue. I'll be live on Dynasty Points over on the Fantasy Points YouTube channel. That night, we'll have our pre-recorded Dynasty Points uh, rookie

76:27um, rookie reactions podcast up on Wednesdays. I will also be writing on Wednesdays uh, Dynasty Corner. So, I'll kind of be focusing on some of the big

76:37movers in my Dynasty rankings up and down on Wednesdays. And then uh we'll have the long view out probably Thursday um or or perhaps it'll come out early

76:47Friday. We'll be recording on Thursdays.

76:50And then um lastly, I'll have kind of a new column for this year which will be on Saturday mornings called the Sunday

76:55five. I've always called my my early week checkers column the Sunday drive.

76:59The Sunday five will basically just be five things on my mind as I head into the upcoming week. Um and sort of

77:06whatever I I I want to write about that intrigues me. It could be something I'm curious to find out or a big take that I

77:12have. Um, whatever that is. So, that'll be my inseason schedule. It'll be it'll be jam-packed. You can get um most or

77:19all of the writing over on um thinking about thinking.

77:21jacobsanderson.substack.com.

77:24There you go everyone. Check out my goat Jacob Sanderson over on thinkingaboutthinking.com.

77:31Make sure you are subscribed to the Davismatic fantasy football channel.

77:35Daily fantasy football videos over here.

77:36New show with Dave tomorrow. It is our sports betting picks survivor uh smorggas sports show new sponsor for that show Liveline Line IQ. So, make

77:46sure you watch that and support that.

More episodes from Davis Mattek

6

Week 1 Final Prep artwork

Week 1 Final Prep

Sep 12, 2026

It Is Ashton Jeanty Week artwork

It Is Ashton Jeanty Week

Sep 12, 2026

Week 1 NFL Picks, Props, Survivor artwork

Week 1 NFL Picks, Props, Survivor

Sep 11, 2026

I'm About To Be Wrong About So Much artwork

I'm About To Be Wrong About So Much

Sep 9, 2026

Fantasy Football Drafting Is Almost Over? artwork

Fantasy Football Drafting Is Almost Over?

Sep 7, 2026

The Beginning artwork

Sep 6, 2026