0:00Weirdly, one of the biggest questions this week has been one that we've I feel like I we were in this spot with Aaron
0:06Jones Sr. about 10 times last year where he would get injured, leave a game, then be questionable next week. We would have
0:14no idea when he was going to play.
0:17I would honestly say whether or not Aaron Jones plays one of the biggest questions of the week. This is an undefeated Vikings team. This is like
0:24basically their first real game. The Detroit Lions are now that the Cowboys have been dethroned that the Lions are now the worst EPA per play or not EPA
0:33per play, that's the Dolphins. EPA total, the Detroit Lions are last in the NFL.
0:39Let's say Aaron Jones doesn't play. What are we assigning Jordan Mason? Do we think Jordan Mason can get to a 9%
0:46target share at 10% target share or are we just going to learn DJ Dallas or or Brattison?
0:53>> Yeah, I mean from a rushing standpoint I think it's easy because you just basically treat him the same way that we
0:57were treating Aaron Jones while he was out. Um, but obviously the difference between them as players, it's a lot easier to assign
1:05targets to Aaron Jones. So I guess, you know, that is where it gets a little bit trickier. Um, but I mean last week 38%
1:13route participation from from Mason like it's not nothing.
1:16I would assume that you probably get like if Jones is out, you certainly get more in the receiving game from Mason than
1:24you would have Jones were in but probably a little bit less than you were getting from Jones when Mason was out.
1:31>> Yeah, I mean I honestly I would say in general I would not really care about Jordan Mason most of the time. He's such
1:38a bad fit for DraftKings scoring and then his end up is just going to You don't technically on FanDuel um need
1:45guys like um You don't need Jordan Mason on FanDuel, right? That those like those kind of like mid-tier plays generally speaking
1:53are not great. But at $5,700 dollars week if if no Aaron Jones. I mean, the Lions like it's actually it's actually
2:00crazy. I mean, how bad uh they've been against both the run and and the pass.
2:05Literally 32nd out of 32 in in yards allowed. Assuming no Aaron Jones, do you think Jordan Mason becomes like stone chalk or do you think he won't actually
2:16I wonder if he maybe doesn't project well enough to be stone chalk actually and he does kind of end up like uh like
2:22the first week that Braelon Allen was a starter. He was not stone chalk and then became stone chalk. I'm wondering if we
2:28get one of those.
2:29>> Yeah, I mean, I think he'll project well for the price. As far as whether or not he's chalk, I think a lot just depends
2:34on the rest of the slate. Um you know, it kind of like you were saying with Braelon Allen like uh and we saw it I
2:41think with like Jaylen Warren at one point too where it's just like this is obviously a good play at the salary, but
2:46it's also just like there is a few bigger priorities that are going to take a lot more ownership.
2:51Um so I mean, that that could be the case. I don't know the really the context of the rest of the slate, but I
2:55do think if Jones is out, that Mason will end up projecting well for 5700.
2:59Like I think he'll dominate touches in the backfield. We saw like 15 carries last week. Uh so it's not like we're worried about him
3:06being eased back in or anything like that. I think you would see uh pretty similar Like I think you would project similarly
3:12to how Aaron Jones was projecting while Mason was out with just a little bit less receiving work. And I pulled up uh
3:18last season the the four games that Aaron Jones missed while Mason was in and the target shares were kind of just
3:24all over the place. You had zero targets in two of the four games and then you had six and a half percent and 11 and a
3:30half percent. Uh so it's kind of in you know, it's in line with what we were assuming I think.
3:35>> Yeah. And then I mean, right now we have Justin Jefferson for 16 and a half points with a 30% target share. Uh not
3:43that like the base ownership rate about 10%. I mean, these numbers all kind of feel about right. That feels about right
3:49what his target share should be. That feels right about the amount points he should be projected for. The difference with Justin Jefferson this year versus
3:56years past is I don't think we have much of a hope of him getting spammed for like 17 targets in this game cuz the
4:03Vikings just have a need of it. Though, I mean I guess we haven't really seen the Kyler Vikings down two scores at any
4:09point. So maybe maybe that does end up happening. I mean it would be it would be quite nice if it did, but I I think
4:16these I think these look about right on Justin Jefferson. I don't think anything needs to get adjusted >> Yeah, I agree with that. We we've seen
4:23him, you know, north of 30 a couple times. We've seen him mid-20s a couple times, but on average I expect it to
4:28come out around there.
4:28>> Yeah, easiest team to project of all time the Detroit Lions, so nothing to discuss there. I guess we do need to
4:34talk about the freaking Tennessee Titans.
4:37I mean, you know what's funny in terms of the inputs is the inputs for Tony Pollard would not have needed to change
4:42that much based on what actually happened. Michael Carter kind of just played um I he he basically just kind of played
4:52like Michael Carter was Tajae Spears, right? And Tony Pollard just ran really really hot in that game against the Browns. I think you're going to see some
5:00real residual chalkness from his performance last week assuming that Spears does not play. But 65% of the rushes like 8% target share. I mean I
5:10don't think really anything needs to be switched around all that much.
5:14>> Tony Pollard's funny because I think people are going to like now get on kind of like you were saying they're going to get on him for like
5:20sort of the wrong reason. He's actually been like a legit bell cow all season long. Um especially in these games where
5:25Singleton's been inactive.
5:27And so like last week really what happened was it's not that like the percentages necessarily changed for Pollard. It's just that the Titans ran the ball the
5:36most they have all season. They had 30 total carries. Uh 22 of them were to Cam Ward. 25 of them went to Tony Pollard.
5:43So like yeah, if if Spears is out you just give the, you know, three carry two or three carries that Spears was going to
5:50get to Michael Carter. But like if Singleton's inactive, it's been the Tony Pollard show in terms of opportunities all season long. It's just that like
5:58usually being the lead running back on the Titans still sucks.
6:01>> Yes. Yeah. Like I would encourage you to not go overboard on Pollard in this spot where they're big dogs against the
6:09Bengals. And I I think that will get realized by projections anyways. No Spears, no Singleton, whatever. Like I I wouldn't expect a big change in that. Um
6:19on the Bengals side, uh you know, we'll we'll be met with Chase Brown who actually, it's kind of funny, his role
6:26actually got better last week despite the fact that P Ryan came in. Like the the touchdown that he gave up the chase
6:32I don't remember what happened. I don't remember if it was like a timeout or a penalty or what happened, but Chase
6:37Brown was in there the play before P Ryan scored. There was some sort of stoppage of play that led to P Ryan
6:44subbing in. I again, I don't know specifically what that would be, but Chase Brown is going to be a huge I
6:52don't I don't know if you'd call it flop leg. I don't know if you'd call it get like I don't know. I I guess like
6:56normalization of his opportunities to fantasy point score this week. Like one, I would expect Chase Brown to be very owned. Two, I would expect him to
7:04project very well. And three, I would expect him to have many chances to score fantasy points here if he is any good at
7:11all, which maybe he isn't, right? Maybe at this point maybe maybe Chase Brown has told us enough about who he is and we should
7:17believe him.
7:18>> Yeah, I mean the the nice thing about Chase Brown I guess is that he's never been like a stud in terms of efficiency.
7:24He's been better than this year, but it's not like the, you know, last year with Saquon where like he went from just
7:31absolute efficiency star two two years ago or whatever to like absolute garbage the next year and you have to like figure
7:39out what's real. With Chase Brown, it's like yeah, he's dropped off in terms of efficiency, but it's a very like reasonable drop-off um and certainly,
7:45you know, could bounce back or he could just still end up having good games because he's on the Bengals and eventually he'll run into some good
7:53games probably. Um the biggest concern I have with him is I think really just that we've kind of seen a little bit
7:59more of P Ryan lately. Um you had four carries for P Ryan last week to 10 for Chase Brown when the game was within two
8:05touchdowns. The week before that, you had like equal carries, 13 for Brown, 14 for P Ryan. Um overall this year though,
8:11he is still at like 64% rushing market share overall.
8:17I mostly think you kind of just keep projecting that and hope that eventually, if you're playing him, it hits.
8:24>> The big concern is overall team rush rate, that they just have fully steered into this kid of saying, "Hey man, Joe
8:30Burrow is our team, Ja'Marr Chase is our team, Tee Higgins is our team."
8:33>> Yeah.
8:33>> We can be like, in the past, Zac Taylor had tried to fight the good fight of of keeping them close to league average in
8:40PROE. It seems like this year, the very much the opposite has been true, where they've just been happy to talk to I
8:45mean, there was that Joe Burrow press conference 2 weeks ago where they were like, "Oh, Chase Brown only got whatever, 11 rushes in this game." And
8:53and Joe Burrow was like, "Yeah, we should throw it even more. We we should we should throw it even more, you know?"
8:57>> I mean, to your point, just of the guys we talked about in this game, um like you think about the Bengals, you think
9:01about the Titans, right? And you just assume that the running back on the Bengals is going to have more carries.
9:05Uh Pollins had at least 14 carries in five out of six games this year. Chase Brown has done it >> Yeah. Yeah, which is is very interesting
9:12stuff. All right, moving to the Atlanta-Tampa Bay game. Tampa Bay is very interesting because I think there's a chance that Ihmir Smith-Marsette does
9:20not play again here. I I mean, could end up being relevant, could not end up being relevant. I will say this, if
9:25Ihmir Smith-Marsette does not play again, Ted Johnson, Cade Otton, these guys are all going to hit optimals again. These guys are all going to project well yet again.
9:34They had, depending on which box score you look at, either 11 or 12 total team drop backs last week. This to me
9:41actually looks like a great opportunity to play Ted Hurst and Tez Johnson and Cade Otton because people are going to be so pissed off. People are going to be
9:50so like, I can't believe I can't believe I played these guys. Like they and they were giga mega owned. Like I think in
9:56the in the big the 150 milli last week, I want to say Ted Hurst was like 31%.
10:02Cade Otton was like 19%. So, to me, I'm ready I am ready to go back and be one of these nerds playing Otton
10:10and Hurst um in in this spot assuming Igbokwe does not play and I I actually think the target share projection on
10:17Hurst that we have here uh I I would probably move him up to about 19% no Igbokwe, I think.
10:24>> Yeah, I'd go right back to it as well. I mean, I'm like I'm sure they'll be popular. Hopefully maybe we see some of
10:29that extra recency bias that we've seen at times this year with people uh I don't know using AI poorly or something like that, but um
10:36yeah, I mean, we saw it in like Discord and you see it on Twitter and we're just like, "Ah, I can't believe people played Ted Hurst,
10:42blah blah blah." And it's just like, it was a totally fluke outlier game. Like he's still $3,800. You don't need him to
10:48go score 40 points and be the best receiver of all time. And if it's not Hurst, it's a cheap Godwin or a cheap
10:54Tez Johnson or a cheap Otton. Like it's the the offense as a whole is just so cheap that if they play any semblance of
11:01a normal game here, somebody is going to do well for the salary, especially with uh Baker back as well.
11:07>> Yes. So, I I would say that is a a high a high degree of like we Igbokwe is one of the most important injuries of
11:17the week to figure out because there are not as it stands right now on a Wednesday too many obvious injury spots
11:22where we're going to be getting cheap guys. Igbokwe would be one of the big ones. On the Atlanta side, speaking of
11:27cheap guys, I mean, you kind of have to start doing the math of like, well, what type of game is this going to be for the
11:33Atlanta Falcons? One interesting thing is that Bijan is actually only averaging 7.1 receiving points per game right now.
11:42They have trimmed his is that Bijan did not pick up too much extra work without Brian Robinson Jr. There
11:53they basically just played Khalil Herbert all of his snaps. They didn't give Khalil Herbert the ball as often as they would give Brian Robinson Jr. but
12:00it did not turn into a gargantuan workload for Bijan last week. So even assuming no B-Rob, I don't I don't think
12:06that automatically means Bijan is like the absolute best play this week. And then Pitts, we've seen Pitts be the tight end one, the tight end two, the
12:13tight end three, and the tight end four all in different games this year for the Atlanta Falcons. Again, they are dogs in
12:19this game and they are road dogs, which would actually to me trend up Kyle Pitts's route rate. But if they do I
12:26mean if they somehow win this game or or anything like that, I mean Kyle Pitts could play fewer snaps than Nick Muse if
12:32they end up winning this game.
12:33>> Yeah, and the receiving for Robinson I think is starting to get concerning.
12:37Um it has also coincided with Penix coming back. Like 8% target share week three, 5% week four, 17 week five, 6% week six, 15 last week. Um it's
12:47not that he's you know a zero obviously, like he still will have his games, but uh outside of week one where he just got
12:53like every single target. Um he really hasn't been super heavily involved in the passing game. And obviously that matters a ton when you're
12:59priced where he is when you're in the price tier that has Christian McCaffrey and has Jahmyr Gibbs etc. So um I do
13:04think that is starting to get concerning. Like it's more often than not that he's just not being targeted that heavily. Um
13:10obviously you're expecting him to dominate every almost every carry. Um Brian Robinson, you know, more of a a pain in the red
13:18zone than you expect Herbert to be, but um I do think that at that price the receiving workload does start to be a
13:24little a little Like the 16% target share right now. I think it's fine as like a projection standpoint just because like we have a long track record
13:31of Bijan being heavily targeted, but he's gone over that twice in seven games this year.
13:37>> Yeah.
13:38Which is one of the hard things it's one of the hard things about doing projections for football versus, you know, basketball or baseball or whatever
13:45is you do have to start to make decisions of like, well, how much signal am I even getting from this trend line?
13:51Is the trend line right or is the thing that's happened the most recent three games right or was this match-up stopper
13:56or was this I mean, you know, and a funny thing about target share is like two targets here or there can totally
14:01massively warp your perception of um of what's happening, which I which I think is uh is very interesting.
14:08>> The crazy thing with Bijan, his average target share this year is 14%. He was 41% in one game.
14:14And it's still only 14. His median's like 12.
14:17>> Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty that's pretty wild. Uh all right, moving on to the next game here. A game that we have a
14:23lots of questions about that you I mean, this if you if Adam, if you're going to get uh the projections on run the sims.com
14:30right for one game this weekend, it really better be this one. The Arizona Cardinals are playing in the dome against Dallas Cowboys. Jeremiah Love
14:37questionable. 5,400 DraftKings dollars for the third overall pick in the draft this year. I'll say right now, Love plays in this game.
14:47I actually don't really care about how shitty he projects. I'm going to find a way to play a little bit of him because
14:52of just the the beyond elite match-up and I mean, like dude, we just saw Bam Knight rack up a couple good games playing the same
15:01role that Jeremiah Love has been vacated. Also, another thing that's sort of interesting about projecting the Cardinals is Tyler Allgeier has been dog
15:08I mean, he had the one he had the I think he had like that 28-yard touchdown run up against the sideline
15:14that was really nice, but he is like bottom five in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation. His missed tackles force is way down. Like it looks like a
15:21legitimately bad contract that the Cardinals signed. I would assume Love's ankles are feeling much better after not playing for 2 weeks. This is what I keep
15:29begging the Raiders to do with Gentilly.
15:31I I I would see room to project love quite well here. And then obviously, you got to figure out also what you're doing
15:39with Algier versus Knight. Like does Knight go back to zero or are we going to have like a three-way time share?
15:43>> So that's my biggest concern is obviously the Cardinals aren't playing for anything. Love is banged up.
15:51Bam Knight's been playing well. Is this just like a three-way nightmare now with all three of them? And like obviously 5400 against the Cowboys, Love can still
16:00get there on limited volume, but you know, he's in he's $300 less than Jordan Mason possibly playing without Aaron Jones.
16:08Um there's, you know, always running backs in this range that just have, you know, Tony Pollard was like $400 more or
16:13something. So that would be my concern is like does this just turn into an absolute disaster? But from like a pure
16:20how good is it if things break my way? $5400 Jermaine Love at low ownership certainly be interesting.
16:29>> Like it's just Jeremiah Love at 2% ownership, 3% ownership versus Jordan Mason at 14. I I think I could probably talk myself into
16:40Jeremiah Love there pretty easily. And then Michael Wilson, I mean we got to talk about Michael Wilson who has had like three for 30, three for 38, and and
16:48four for 40 in the three games with no Marvin Harrison Jr. His role has not really changed. It's not that he's
16:53getting shunted out to be a sacrificial X wide receiver. I guess the ball just has not really found him. His route rate
16:59has also been trimmed a little bit. With no Marvin Harrison Jr., I don't really know what that's about. Jaylen Brooks is
17:04out is is injured as well. So their wide receiver room is now down to Michael Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, and then take
17:11your pick of Reggie Virgil, Devin Duvernay, Semi Fehoko. I mean it has led to them playing a lot of 12. They played
17:18a lot of Elijah Higgins and Teagan Quitoriano.
17:22Um I mean just what a what an absolute mess this is.
17:25If there is I guess I would be very very interested in Michael Wilson this week if I think I could sneak him through in
17:32terms of ownership. But if this is a very annoying thing about DFS in 2026 is like everyone just is totally they'll just play the projection and if
17:41he ends up projecting for a 25% target share, which I think he probably should, uh there will be no sneaking of Michael
17:47Wilson anywhere.
17:48>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean I said it with him last week. I think probably more than almost anybody else. I just play him
17:52when he's not popular and I don't play him when he is um because everything around him is still I mean from
17:58he's he's good but he's not you know like a groundbreaking wide receiver himself and then everything around him outside of the fact that they almost always are
18:05playing from behind is just like so unappealing. So like I am probably more aware of ownership with him than like anybody else. Um
18:14McBride would obviously be the guy that I just assume gets peppered and trust more but um you know you can always find
18:20it's easier to find value at tight end than wide receiver so it makes Wilson more appealing.
18:24>> Yeah.
18:25Don't think there's anything else interesting on the Arizona side. On the Dallas side, I suppose the only question would be will we see a narrowing of the
18:34target tree between Lamb and Pickens in any meaningful way or is this just who they are this year that Pickens is a
18:4121-22% target share guy, CD's like a 28-29, 30% and then eventually we will get here. We're not going to get here
18:48yet. I think we'll get an outright benching of Jake Ferguson. It's been like a legitimate time share between him and Brevyn Spann-Ford but I think
18:58you know, I don't it it will not be relevant for the main slate. It's uh really only relevant for like showdown
19:02and stuff at this point but Spann-Ford by I don't know, week 14 will be the starting tight end for the Dallas
19:08Cowboys but the the Pickens stuff, I mean look, we're heading into week eight of the season.
19:13Have almost halfway over. Like, Pickens has really only produced when Lamb has been off the field, which is not Honestly, I didn't really see coming.
19:21Frankly, I like not that many things have surprised me this season. I didn't really imagine fully healthy Lamb and Pickens having
19:30like a an eight-point gap in their projected fantasy points in a given week.
19:34>> I kind of did. Like, I mean, this is probably on the extreme end, but I didn't totally buy into like the Pickens
19:40is wide receiver 1A type thing because there were It was just really misleading last season because Lamb had like two or
19:47three games that he started and then left very early. And Pickens overall number like target share and everything for the season was very inflated by the games
19:58that Lamb either missed or left in like, you know, the first quarter. Um the games where Lamb played a complete game,
20:03I think Pickens finished the year at like 22% or something. So, like I wouldn't have been shocked if it had ended up being, you know, Pickens ends
20:11up at like 24% or something like that.
20:13But, I thought Lamb was still like the clear one here when they're both healthy and it has played out that way. So, I'm
20:21not really hesitant to just be like, yeah, okay, whatever. It's 22% Pickens, it's, you know, 28-30% Lamb, whatever.
20:28>> Yeah.
20:28Moving on to the next game now, the Las Vegas Raiders traveling against the New York Jets. Suppose Actually, you know what, man? We really
20:37got to talk about Trey Tucker. Trey Tucker is now up to averaging 6.7 targets per game. He's got a 25% target
20:43share on the year. Part of that is hard to model because it is hard to say these guys, Jalen Nailor, Thornton, White,
20:50Benson, whoever it is, running full-time routes should like legitimately be 4% target share guys. Like, that's tough.
20:57It's also tough to model out Bowers and Mayer where Bowers is a I mean, almost like a 30% peripheral target share guy like with
21:07these guys on the field in his career, but then you also have Mayer who has beaten his projection a bunch of times,
21:13like his target share projection. That's also kind of hard to model. I I think I have moved into Trey Tucker um
21:21respecter. I I think I am a Trey Tucker target share respecter. Even if even, you know, if 5,500 and a Not that he'll
21:28really end up being that much of a play here, but he can impact Bowers and Mayer's projection.
21:33>> Yeah, I mean, I think he we have him at 18% right now. I think that seems fine.
21:37Um the weird thing like in recent games like last week where he got the 27% was Bowers is only at 18. Like obviously
21:43you're never projecting Bowers that way.
21:45Um but really Bowers has been 25% or lower in every game this year other than the one where he came back
21:52week three and got like every target. Um so it's kind of like a sliding scale where like you said, one, it's hard to
21:59actually project wide receivers that are running full routes as low as, you know, Nailor, Benson, etc. have been, but then also
22:09you can only really knock Bowers down so far before that starts getting uncomfortable. Um so like it's just another spot where I think there's just
22:15going to be a lot of volatility because Tucker on average probably does come in around like 17, 18%, but he doesn't have
22:22He really only has Brock Bowers in his way any given week as far as replicating last week where he had he
22:29know, oh yeah, he was the number one target this week because really the only guy he had to beat out was Brock Bowers.
22:33>> Yeah. I mean, what do you think the correct Trey Tucker target share is like over the course of like at end of year end of year
22:45weeks one through one one through 18, what do you think the Trey Tucker target share will be at end of year for the
22:50Raiders?
22:50>> 17, 18.
22:52>> I think I'd say higher than that.
22:54>> I mean, he's at 17 and a half right now average. His median right now is 15.
23:02>> I I just think it's one of those things where performance tends to forget performance and he's been their only wide receiver
23:08worth a [ __ ] Now, it could get worse with Mendoza. I think that's actually an interesting thing is it could get worse
23:13with Mendoza cuz Mendoza will probably be a little bit more hesitant on a lot of the deep stuff that they run.
23:19>> Yeah, I was going to say the actual end of season numbers for Tucker will be really dependent on how him and Mendoza
23:24work together.
23:24>> good he is, yeah.
23:26All right. The other side of the game, I mean, you're like everyone at Run The Sims going to have their hand full
23:31figuring this out because it seems like Breece Hall is probably going to be back this week. He and Braelon Allen are both
23:37practicing in a limited fashion today.
23:39So, we're going to have to start to figure out, okay, well, has Braelon been so good that he worked his way into a
23:4450/50? Is it a 60/40? Does Breece get his 23 touch per game roll back cuz that's what he was before he got hurt?
23:51Then, Irv Smith not targeted last week at all. Omar Cooper Jr. sans Garrett Wilson, but Garrett Wilson is like a I mean, career-long like a 25, 26, 27
24:03target share guy. Then, you have Mason Taylor popping up for the best game of his career, but he's not even their best
24:09tight end. Sed Wilson is playing fewer snaps than Jeremy Ruckert, but could also in a competitive game end up scaling up like this is just a mess.
24:17Figuring out the Jets offense is a mess.
24:19And then, thankfully, the total on this game is low, so none of these guys are really going to project that well, but
24:26it is like pretty important to figure out the baselines for these guys.
24:29Overall, I I would like to say I'm going to think Omar Cooper Jr.'s baseline probably needs to be raised and his A
24:38dot >> Yeah.
24:39>> whatever Omar Cooper Jr.'s A dot is in the back end on Run The Sims probably needs to be raised.
24:45>> Yeah, I think Omar Cooper like the 14% should probably be higher. Obviously, Irv Smith complicates things as well. He ran like
24:5450% of routes in his return. I assume that goes up. Um said it on this show last week, but like the one nice thing
25:00about the mess of the Jets is that at least at wide receiver, it's really they use three guys. They use Garrett Wilson,
25:06they're using Ad Mitchell, they use Omar Cooper Jr. Um Isaiah Williams, you know, has essentially disappeared. Tim Patrick has essentially disappeared. So like
25:12that part is nice. And then at tight end, I assume you're just getting like a super messy not not super messy because like Taylor
25:19is ahead, but a gross split from like a DFS standpoint. Um you did get a 20% target share for Taylor last week or
25:26last 2 weeks. So like if you're going to play one, I think it's obviously him, but also it's just not going to be super
25:31appealing in general. And then I assume at running back you get a closer split between Hall and Allen than you were getting earlier in the
25:40year with Hall coming back from injury and Allen having played well would be my guess. So like I still view it as like
25:47Wilson being the number one wide receiver, but obviously he has more competition now that you have Mitchell and Cooper back. But that also can
25:52improve efficiency. Like that's always a tricky spot as well.
25:57>> You would want it to improve the New York Jets efficiency. The issue is is regardless of how talented their pass
26:02catchers are, like the Chiefs I as a as a Chiefs fan, I mean I would commit, you know, a a crime on par with like the
26:10entire Chiefs roster cuz they're all criminals. I would do one of these crimes to have the Jets 11 personnel be the Can you imagine the Chiefs with
26:18Garrett Wilson, Omar Cooper Jr., Ad Mitchell, Kony Ealy and Siddique, and Breece Hall? Like my god. My god, it would be unbelievable. Frank Reich and
26:25and Aaron Glennon are like, yeah, you know, we got all these guys, but we just need to make sure to run the ball, you
26:30know, 75% of the time. It's one of the It's very very annoying that they don't open up the pass rate over expectation
26:36stuff. I don't know what what can you what can you do? And these guys are not that relevant this week, but they're
26:41obviously there will be weeks where they are super relevant and where the baseline stuff for the Jets is is very very important. Uh the Baltimore Ravens
26:50against the Buffalo Bills. So sounds like Lamar is going to play this week. I don't remember if this was Fowler or Rap
26:55Sheet that said this, but he's expected to play this week.
26:59Backfield is what it is. However, Jacoby Lane versus Rashod Bateman, very important to figure that out this week because again, there are just not too
27:07many cheap guys that project that well.
27:09This is the highest total game of the slate by quite a bit. I I think by almost Well, actually no, Dallas-Arizona is
27:17close as well. But, Lane has been like I don't know, like a real revolution a real revelation for the Baltimore Ravens, honestly.
27:25I'd like to get him to like a 17-18% target share to feel real comfortable playing him. Bateman had the shoulder injury that I thought was going to hold
27:32him out last week, but he ends up not even being listed with an injury designation. How are you thinking about Lane versus Bateman?
27:39>> I think it's hard to get him to 17 or 18 just because Zay Flowers exists for one.
27:46Last week with the score within two touchdowns, Bateman and and Lane ran almost the same amount of routes. 64% for Bateman, 61 for Lane.
27:55Lane overall 15% target share last week, Bateman at 12.
27:59I think landing in like the 15 ish percent range for Lane makes sense and then probably coming in a little bit
28:05lower on Bateman. I think it is reasonable to think that Lane just ends up being like a higher target per route
28:10run guy than Bateman.
28:12I just I don't know how quickly or at all are they going to like relegate Bateman to like clearly behind Lane in terms of
28:21being on the field as opposed to what they're doing right now where they're both out there similar amounts and then Flowers is just, you know, out there
28:28constantly.
28:29>> 100% And then the tight ends, I mean, every website keeps projecting Mark Andrews way better than he actually is.
28:37Now, Quevus and Hipner, they're they're like drawing like screens up for these guys and stuff. Like, I don't Maybe Mark Andrews does need to stay at 16% but
28:46like man he has completely lost it. Like in terms of efficiency, yards per target, catch rate, or whatever, like it's like it is
28:54like a tough watch to watch Mark Andrews right now.
28:57>> Yeah, I think Lamar might impact this a little bit, too.
29:00>> He should. I mean >> Andrews hasn't been obviously hasn't been good this year, but in terms of just target percentage, his average for
29:06the year is 18%.
29:09He's been at He was at 12% last week. He was at 10% the week before that. Like the first 5 weeks of the year, he's at
29:1324, 23, 25, 21, 19. Obviously, you had Flowers get banged up week one, miss week two, so it's a little bit
29:20misleading, but like even week three, you had 30% targets for Flowers, you had 25 for Andrews, 31 week four for Flowers, 21 for Andrews. So like from a
29:27target share standpoint, I still think especially if Lamar plays 16 is reasonable. It's just it can be a pretty empty 16, too. Like
29:39it probably should be like but like it can be a pretty empty 18 when you're not getting yards after the catch, you're
29:43not getting any sort of like you know, you're getting like a glorified Zach Ertz at this point.
29:48>> Yeah. Yeah, 100%. And then on the Bills side DJ Moore is 5,700. He actually This is actually wild. He um he leads the NFL in
30:00EPA E- EPA per target. I mean, granted, he's only played about six quarters.
30:06I mean, Kumerow has actually been quite good. Shakir, I think obviously has a little bit of room to give up. And then
30:13Kincaid is also a difficult guy to figure out because he's had a very wide range of outcomes in his per game target
30:19share. Like he's been He actually his best target game was the game right before the bye that he sucked. He had 38
30:26yards in that game, earned a bunch of targets in that game. I like figuring out the target shares for the Bills, I
30:31think is pretty important. Um mostly because Josh Allen is like so good that via the power of friendship, he can make
30:38some of these guys good fantasy weapons.
30:40I mean, he's done it for Keon Coleman, who I don't really think he's playing that much better than he has years
30:45before. I think it's just that he is actually playing instead of being benched the way he has been benched every other year of his career. But like
30:52more in this game, I mean, if we can like if you can get him to a 24% target share, he becomes
30:59like one of the best plays on this slate, I think.
31:02>> Yeah, so the I mean, the Bills are always tough because like you said, like Josh Allen can kind of just pick and
31:07choose and do whatever he wants. And if you look at like the average target share for these guys compared to their
31:12mediums, the mean is like almost always higher. Like Shakir's at 18% mean. Um, but his median I think is closer to like
31:2016, 17. Kincaid in particular, like he's got three games 21% or higher and then three games 11% or lower. Um, but DJ
31:29Moore like it's hard to project him with a lot of confidence because he keeps missing games or getting hurt after starting the game. But when he's been on
31:37the field, like he's getting targeted so heavily by Josh Allen that at 5700 I would like I I think he should have higher
31:45than a 19 and a half percent market share just based on how aggressively we've we've seen him targeted when he is
31:49out there. Um, he would obviously be the thing that like I'm most confident in here and it would kind of drive down everything
31:56else. But with the caveat that like the volatility on anybody that's actively involved in the Bills offense, whether that's Moore, Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid, like is just
32:07higher than on other offenses because Josh Allen's your quarterback and you're on such a high-powered offense.
32:12>> Yeah. Yeah, I think I think that is probably correct. Um, and then obviously if Lamar doesn't play, a whole bunch of
32:18stuff gets uh wrapped up there. So, pretty interesting one here.
32:23The Indianapolis Colts are going in in this game as of Adam and I recording right now, Josh Downs has requested a trade.
32:31Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner have been traded. We have what, 96 hours or roughly until kickoff or um, so chance Josh Downs will be traded chance
32:42Jonathan Taylor is traded in their most recent game Seth Magallen played his greatest snap share and had his greatest rush share. I think because they were
32:52like hard to tell if they are auditioning Seth Magallen to be like, well, do we think we can start this guy
32:58for the rest of the season if we have to or if they're like, well, we suck anyways, so like what's the point? Let's
33:03just not give Jonathan Taylor a million rushes and and get him hurt. Then you've got okay, well, what happens if Josh
33:09Downs gets traded before kickoff? Like Keenan Allen is 4,500, Treadwell's 3,100, Deon Burks, who honestly, Deon Burks, every time they give him a touch,
33:19I'm like, this guy's just like better than Josh Downs right now and he is 3,000. Tyler Warren has missed their most recent two games, might play here,
33:27but also might not because why would you if you're if you have a groin injury, if you're on the borderline of a groin
33:33injury and your team is trading everyone who's not tied down, why don't you just hang out for a while? I did this is like
33:39I mean and that's before even getting to the fact that Daniel Jones just sucks so hard. He's terrible. What is he going to
33:46do? Like if Downs is off the field and his best offensive lineman is gone, what does that even look like? This is this
33:52is a huge mess.
33:53>> I'm glad they have an 18-point total and they're not in the dome because mostly you can just kind of just be like, yeah,
33:58whatever, I don't care, like unless you get like Taylor traded or something, then obviously $4,300 Magallen becomes interesting at that point, but
34:06yeah, I mean it's it's a mess and it's there are so many different moving parts that make it hard to like nail down
34:12efficiency because like you said, you trade Quinton Nelson, so you're expecting you know, the line not to be as good, which hurts efficiency. If you
34:17don't have Tyler Warren, like yeah, there's more targets available, but you're also missing a key a big part of your offense that can open things up for
34:25Downs, Treadwell, Allen. If you trade Downs, target share comes up, but also now your wide receiver room is just worse. Daniel
34:32Jones is terrible. Like it's really, really bad. Like I I think it's kind of just like an umbrella view, ex- excluding Jonathan Taylor, cuz like
34:41obviously he's capable of putting up big games, but you know, clearly he's hurt by trading Quenton Nelson. Also, um just kind of an umbrella view for me is
34:50just sort of like they're cheap and they'll get opportunities. Um chances are they're not going to do anything with those opportunities. They have an
34:56eight that you know, they have an 18-point implied total here. They're like eight, nine-point dogs. Chances are they're just all going to suck, but
35:04like Keenan Allen Kyler Warren, if he plays they have the opportunities >> Keenan Keenan honestly, I think it's he's like actually too expensive to
35:14consider. I like Keenan at 4,500 on this team with like a really low team total against a really good defense. I I think
35:23we can just say like 4,500. I'll figure out ways to spend money elsewhere.
35:29>> Yeah. Where would get it >> interesting to me is if Downs is either traded or inactive, like what the what
35:35the Cardinals did with Marvin Harrison Jr. where they made him inactive before they traded him.
35:39I cuz I would guess that Deon Burks plays his snaps.
35:44Not not Ashton Dulan. Um because the other guys are are outside guys. Wow, the return of old friend, Mecole Hardman. That not not a name I expected
35:52to see uh doing doing this one today. Um and then like to me, like Jonathan Taylor did I I if anything, you you shade him a little
36:00bit low in the projection.
36:02>> Yeah, I agree. Um yeah, I mean mostly I I would just hope that when I build my lineups, I just don't
36:08really have much of any of this. Yeah.
36:11>> Yeah. So, the other side of this game, very interesting.
36:15Tuten was shelving [snorts] Chris Rodriguez Jr. Like C-Rod had his lowest snaps, lowest touches before the international game or before the the the
36:24Jags played two international games, before the second international game.
36:28Then in the second international game, Tuton scores two times, has his best receiving game of the year, has another touchdown called back, but it's actually
36:37the greatest amount of snaps that C. Rod had played all year. So, it's just like what what it I I don't know. I mean the
36:44the whole Liam Cohen backfield thing is like so annoying. And then Brian Thomas Jr. plays no snaps in the second half,
36:51is not targeted, um might even be traded before this game takes place. So, that leads to like potentially I mean $3,000
37:01Josh Cameron, if I told you Brian Thomas Jr. just doesn't play at all in this game, like like he's a healthy scratch or
37:07whatever, what do we get Cameron Do we get Cameron's target share to like a playable range? Does is does Jacoby get
37:14a bump? Does Britain Strange get a bump?
37:17This is another team that's very And that's even before getting into Travis Hunter having a good game as well. Like I don't I don't even know what you do
37:24with the Jacks.
37:25>> Yeah, I mean the good part I guess for lack of a better phrase is like Brian Thomas has been so irrelevant that
37:31it wouldn't really change things that much. There's only, you know, an 8% target share to split out to everybody else.
37:39I would assume that, you know, Josh Cameron's routes would go up and maybe you get a little bit more Travis Hunter,
37:43but I assume it would mostly be Josh Cameron.
37:46But like you know, Thomas has been below 10% target share for four straight weeks.
37:54There's not that much difference in terms of projection at this point, I don't think. Uh you get, you know, a little bit more
38:01from Myers probably, obviously more for Cameron, but um I think it would basically just create a situation where like Parker Washington
38:09is the same play he already is, except like marginally better, same for Jacoby Myers. Cameron would probably get the biggest marginal bump, but I
38:17don't think it would be enough to like make him anything more more just a 3K dart throw type guy.
38:22>> Yeah. Yeah.
38:24Uh I mean, his role's been pretty good. The issue is is he can get squeezed by Hunter and he can get squeezed by Nate
38:31Borkircher. Like he could he could have his snap squeezed both ways. Then what about the What about Tuton? Cuz Tuton is
38:36going to be chalk this week regardless of how well he is like he'll be chalk projected for 15 points or 18 points. It
38:44It doesn't really matter. The type of people who hand click are are predisposed to Tuton. And he is going to project well enough to end up in, you
38:54know, like very smart sim-based players as well. So like 9% target share that that honestly it feels a little bit generous, but 58%
39:04rush share might be a little bit low. I I don't know exactly how to how to work through that.
39:09>> Yeah, I mean the target share has been trending up a little bit. Um it's 7 and 1/2% average for the season
39:15coming off of 10% last game. He's been at least 7 and 1/2 three straight games. So his three most recent games have all been
39:22slightly higher than his first three, but obviously like you were saying earlier, you know, one or two targets especially in the case of somebody like
39:29Tuton can can skew that a lot. Um So much of it is like game dependent too, it seems like with what they're
39:37doing. You know, like you said, week five 22 carries for Tuton, two for Rodriguez. And then week six it's 12 for
39:43Tuton, 11 for Rodriguez. Um I think on average you probably expect like 60-ish percent um in on snaps that have happened with the
39:53score between within two touchdowns so far this year Tuton's at like 57%.
39:58Um 57 and 1/2% overall. I think that probably goes up at least a little bit as the year goes on.
40:05>> I would think so as well. And um yeah, I don't care what runthesims.com projects by I shell Tuton for. He's for sure
40:11going to be in my in my spy line up. So you can just chalk that one up right now. uh the Cleveland Browns and the
40:19Pittsburgh Steelers, the the Browns backfield marginally relevant. Um Samson played a ton. Samson played 49% of the snaps last week. So, Judkins had
40:30a really good game, but actually saw the passing volume that he had been gaining like completely evaporate, just like went went to absolute zero. And then,
40:39Concepcion with a big breakout game in terms of projecting Concepcion, I think it's super relevant cuz I think our back-end stuff for A dot has got to
40:48increase. That was like the biggest change for him last week. Now, team level, the Browns are still really bad.
40:54Deshaun Watson's still really bad. So, I don't think we can have KCC projecting like he's JSN or whatever, but I do
41:01think it's smart to improve his range of outcomes as a result of that like giant breakout last Even though, I mean, a lot of guys are
41:09going to break out against the Titans, right? I mean, let's be real.
41:12>> Yeah, I mean, the the good thing with him is I I think I've kind of been high on him in general, and we had talked
41:17about it. Like, he hadn't really put together like that big game yet, but the targets and everything have been great. You know, like week five, he left
41:25early, he ended up with a 3% target share or whatever. If you throw that game out, take his other six games, his
41:30median now is 25%, whereas his mean including, you know, that week five game, uh is only 20%. So, there is kind
41:36of like a gap there between what, you know, his average and like what he's actually doing. Um obviously, you get all of the volatility that comes with
41:45having Deshaun Watson at quarterback and playing for the Browns, etc., but the role has been like really, really good for him. And he's somebody that I wanted
41:51to be early on, and then of course didn't have him last week, but uh running a bunch of routes, running as as many routes as basically
41:58anybody, uh getting targeted more than anybody. So, yeah, I mean, I think you're still he's still clearly not immune to the team he
42:04plays for or his quarterback, but um in terms of opportunities and like very, very steady role for 4,700, it's going to be hard to
42:12find guys in that price range that are more solidified.
42:16>> Yeah, I think you're I think you are correct about that. And then on the Steelers side, I mean, Metcalf versus Bernard. So,
42:24they've been relatively close in terms of target share when they've both been on the field. Bernard much lower average depth of target, but Metcalf's A dot is
42:32actually much lower than it has been historically. They're playing him much closer to the line of scrimmage. Then you've got, you know, Fireman then
42:40there. They're both very much aided by the fact that the Steelers are playing total zeros. Brandon Smith, Brandon Johnson, MBS, Caden Wetgen. Like they're
42:51playing these like complete and total zeros alongside them.
42:55Um and I guess that, you know, the Steelers backfield as well are are the Jaylen Warren bros worst fears were recognized last week. He was basic I
43:04mean, he was basically in a time share with Rico Dowdle. They both I think they they both I think they both finished
43:09running back 18, running back 19 in PPR points last week. Like Warren was clearly the lead and is going to get
43:16more of the high value touches, but Dowdle is like very much not going to zero.
43:21>> Yeah, like before Dowdle got hurt, they were in closer to like a 50/50, whereas now it's like a, you know, 65/35.
43:29Uh or you know, 67/33, but it's still clearly worse for for Warren than it was previously. Like the only real good
43:36thing you could say other than, you know, he is getting more carries relative to to Dowdle than he was pre-injury is like
43:43they ran so much last week that he still actually had his most carries of the season. Um at least with the
43:49score within two touchdowns, so I have it filtered. But like he got 18 carries there. So, like that's good, but like
43:54you're obviously just not going to have that big of a rushing pie every every week. Um so, that's been a negative. But
43:59yeah, as far as the the wide receivers, I expect that you see like I think Metcalf is still the guy that you have
44:03to project with the higher target share between him and Bernard, but I don't think it's by like a big enough gap that
44:09you're surprised any given week if Bernard does end up with a higher target share. Uh you had Bernard ahead of Metcalf week five, week six, and week
44:16seven Metcalf was ahead by like four or five points. Um so like I think that's kind of how you need to project it, but
44:22I do think Bernard is is good in general. I think he clearly has a role here. Rogers trusts him. And like you
44:27said, behind Metcalf and Bernard, there's really nobody pushing these guys for targets outside of like the running backs and to some extent Freiermuth, but um
44:36there's there's no other wide receiver competing for targets whatsoever.
44:41>> Yeah. Yeah, which is is quite nice. I I think with a team that is this heavy pass rate over expectation, which the Steelers
44:50have been. I know they ran a bunch last week and I guess they they will certainly have the opportunity to do. I
44:54mean, Jeremy I think needs to be like a minimum of 20% target share. It would just be a question of the gap between
45:01Metcalf and Bernard and how much Freiermuth. And and obviously both of the running backs are also going to have a very heavy target share. Like Rogers a
45:09lot of the a lot of the runs just turn into two-yard throws to to Jaylen Warren or to Rico Dowdle. That's kind of the way
45:15that it works there.
45:16>> Yeah, which notably uh Dowdle his first game back, it was 39% routes for Warren, only 13 for Dowdle. Last week it was 44 for Warren, which is
45:26good, but uh 56 for for Dowdle.
45:28>> Yeah.
45:30I'm I'm team I'm team Jeremy. I think Jeremy is just the he's such a good stylistic fit for Rogers that I think
45:37yeah, his A dot his air yard share will be relatively low, but his target share will be relatively high. The Los Angeles
45:44Chargers. Yes.
45:45>> Oh, no. I was going to say the biggest thing for him is just like I think Rogers trusts him, too, and that's just
45:48so big with Rogers probably more than like any other quarterback.
45:52>> Yes.
45:53The Chargers might have Lad McConkey back this week. They might not. They might have Trey Harris back this week.
45:58They might not.
46:00Amari and Hampton played a lot more than Keeton Mitchell the game before the bye.
46:05Who knows what they will do here. I mean this is you want to talk about a nightmare team to project. I don't even
46:10have where do you even begin with this team? I mean Kalil is now playing all the snaps at tight end like what a mess
46:17dude.
46:17>> Yeah, a lot of base rates and people probably not really projecting that good but then looking at it and being
46:22uncomfortable and being like but it's Lad McConkey. Why is he at nine points?
46:25Like he could score you know 20. Um but yeah, I mean they've just the combination of them being so bad the
46:31line being horrible everybody being hurt even when they're not hurt still kind of like struggling to be any good or or separate. I mean
46:42McConkey had a 26% target share week one and he obviously has been leaving games early and all of that but he hasn't been
46:47about 15% in any of the other games he's played.
46:50Uh Trey Harris you know had two games at 20% or higher. Quinton Johnston has zero.
46:56You kind of I think just project the offense to be an absolute disaster.
47:02>> A stone disaster. The offensive line is terrible. None of the wide receivers have played well. I mean Quinton Johnston one of the worst wide receivers
47:09like ability wise in the NFL I think. I I still don't know how this dude was relevant for fantasy football at all. I
47:17mean the only interesting thing for salary cap DFS here is I mean if if Kalil leads the team in targets again as a $2,500 tight end I
47:27like if assume let's assume Lad doesn't play but QJ and Trey Harris and KLS do.
47:34I mean I'm I'm pretty interested in like again just because salary is so hard to come by this week. I would be
47:42marginally interested in playing Kalil who who had like I think like a 70% route rate in their most recent game.
47:48>> He was only 33% week six. He was 70% week five.
47:51>> There you go. Okay. Well, I the week six was the Chiefs game?
47:54>> Uh week six it looks like McConkey played, Harris didn't play, K L S was at 74% in his first game back.
48:03>> Yeah. Yeah.
48:04Um, and then the backfield, I mean, none of these guys are playable at all. I I don't know. I mean, maybe
48:11theoretically, [snorts] maybe Hampton could get some touchdowns.
48:14I guess there was a rumor that Cam Akers might get traded and if so he gets traded before kickoff, maybe $5,100
48:18Hampton ends up being okay. On the other side of this game for the Rams, Kyren coming off his two highest usage
48:27games of the season.
48:30Again, they were still he's only played above 25% of the snaps in two games.
48:34Kyren, I mean, maybe there's an argument to bring the rush shares or maybe maybe just adjust the rush rate. I mean, maybe
48:41that's the answer. Maybe no Davante Adams, no Terrance Burgess, maybe they just are like a 50/50 run pass split team. I mean, maybe
48:49>> I would think the rush touchdown in at the very least needs to come off with no with no Adams.
48:54>> Yes. Yeah, I I think that's a good call.
48:56And then we did get our answer. None of Mumfield, Daniels, Atwell, Weddington, Bachman, Presley, none of these guys are playable at all. None of them are going to get
49:05the ball. We got the most annoying permutation of things possible last week, which was Max Clears doesn't play on offense at all. Davis Allen is third
49:14amongst the tight ends in targets and routes run, but scores two times.
49:20Parkinson leads in targets and receptions, but runs fewer routes than Higbee. Higbee has a full route share and a fine target share, but doesn't do
49:29anything with it. I mean, the just the the most annoying group of guys. Like, and can we just get Ferguson's ankle healed, please? Cuz I
49:37can't I can't do this for another week with Higbee, man. I can't. It's too annoying.
49:42>> Yeah. Um, I mean, $8,600 Puka is nice, but other than that, yeah, it's a it's a mess.
49:48Like, I with the running backs, I do think it's interesting. Like you said, you could increase rush share and and certainly I think um rushing touchdowns.
49:56But it is 2 weeks in a row now where even if you just filter for the score being within a couple touchdowns,
50:03uh 10 carries for Kyren to nine for Quorum and then 10 for Kyren to 12 for Quorum. You know, obviously the Rams
50:09like there are times where that can be misleading because Quorum's drive just ends up having more rushes naturally than Kyren's do for one reason or
50:17another. Uh but to me that is like an interesting trend that probably project them at least a little bit closer in terms of of rushing market
50:26share. Um certainly would be something to pay attention to if you're playing any like showdown slates or something.
50:30Or afternoon slates or whatever.
50:32>> Yeah.
50:33I mean and there is a I guess there is I did see a report yesterday that the Rams don't know if Ferguson's going to be
50:40able to practice this week. Obviously, if he does play um at 3,000, I I mean I would have him for what a 17% target
50:48share, 18 I mean in in the one game he played without Puka, he had a a 28% target share. So I I would think that uh
50:56he probably ends up being a pretty good play.
50:59Uh Chiefs Denver, I mean here I I got a quick spoiler for you guys. These guys all [ __ ] suck. Uh Rashee Rice plays,
51:05he sucks. Worthy sucks. Royal sucks.
51:08Andrew Armstrong sucks. Cyrus Allen actually is okay, but only he's going to run about four routes. Kelce is too expensive, you don't have to care. 21
51:15target share is about right for him. The I guess the the the interesting thing is the team was so bad. It was the worst
51:21offensive performance in Mahomes' career. First time uh in a Chief's start they did not make it to the red zone in the decade of
51:29Mahomes' career. I don't think they're going to be that bad against the team.
51:33What did they they they won like 32 to 10 or whatever in in week one, I believe against the Broncos. So the question
51:40then becomes at at a team level of efficiency with only a 20 and a half team total, how good can Kenneth Walker
51:47project? Is Kenneth Walker like a smash if he's under 10% or is the team total efficiency so bad that like the other
51:56expensive running backs are are better alternatives?
52:00>> I mean, I think the other expensive running backs probably end up looking a little bit better like because Walker is still so expensive.
52:06You didn't get a salary discount on Walker for the match up. Um I think he's actually more expensive than he had
52:12been.
52:13I I I want to say he was like 8,500 last game but that could be wrong. Um so I mean I think he's just kind of firmly in
52:18that like I I think like 6,700% ownership is probably kind of as low as he should ever get. Like if you were to ever see a 2% Kenneth
52:27Walker, you just click Kenneth Walker a bunch. So like I think that's probably where he like should be from an efficiency standpoint.
52:35>> Yeah. I my I my gut is is that the Broncos defense is not so good that Walker can't get going and the Broncos
52:43offense is certainly not so good that the Chiefs will feel like we got to just pass the ball. Like we got to like I
52:49like we should be able to get through this game with 31 rushes for for Ken Walker or whatever. That's my That's my
52:55early read. Uh Bronco side, two interesting things. Jona Coleman, 4,300.
53:02I He played He led the team in snaps and carries last week.
53:06JK Dobbins has been bitching on social media about about the team. I think there's a chance Dobbins gets traded. He might get I think one of the potential
53:14trades is he gets traded to the Giants with uh with Harbaugh. So he might not even be active for this game or or might
53:21just be slowly phased out. And then Waddle reinjured his chest. No scenario where I would play Courtland Sutton.
53:29There are scenarios where I would play Troy Franklin or Marvin Mims though. Um now I think we all know I think we've all
53:37been here before, which is that these guys are all going to suck. That it's not like Bo Nix sucks. Like these are
53:42all bad plays. There is a chance that Franklin or Mims draw a little bit of ownership, though.
53:47>> I mean, I'll end up with some Courtland Sutton at 4,700, too, just because I hate money and he's 4,700. And like, if
53:53if Waddle's out. Um but yeah, none of it's going to be No no none of the receivers are going to be
54:00guys you should have much confidence in.
54:02They're going to be guys that project as if they're, you know, $500 $600 underpriced based on opportunities if Waddle is out. Um in those cases, like,
54:12a lot of times I think it is best to just go to the cheapest one, which would be like Franklin or Mims. Um but yeah,
54:17I'm with you in the backfield. I think he gets really interesting where What is Jonathan Coleman is >> 4,300 on DK.
54:24>> Yeah.
54:24>> Yeah, especially because, you know, like yeah, you saw him come back last week he had the most carries on the
54:29team. Now, granted, he had nine, Nick had five, Dobbins had six, Harvey had three. Like, it was disgusting. But don't forget that prior to him getting
54:37hurt, he had 10 carries, Dobbins had 10 carries, Harvey was out that game. Um so, it's, you know, not completely apples to apples, but like, prior to him
54:46getting hurt, it was pretty interesting as far as just like, oh wow, he's going to take over this backfield this early in the season. And then he
54:54gets hurt, and then he comes back and he leads the team in in carries. So, like I wouldn't Again, like, I think the most
55:00likely outcome, and this is assuming Dobbins is active and not traded or anything, the most likely outcome is probably some really disgusting time
55:07share between everybody. But there is the potential outcome of oh, $4,300 Jonathan Coleman just took over the backfield this week, and
55:19congrats to the guy that had him in the milli at, you know, 2% owned.
55:22>> Yeah. Yeah.
55:23>> Valid. Fair enough. Final game of this slate, the New England Patriots at the Miami Dolphins.
55:30Rhamondre Stevenson, 5,600.
55:34Travion Henderson is trending down in like a huge way. The issue is his snaps are basically just being given to Corey
55:40Kiner. Like it's not like Rhamondre is now playing 80% of the offensive snaps.
55:45In the Thursday night game, they were just giving them drives. So, it'd be like, "Okay, this is a Rhamondre drive." Henderson would get a drive, and
55:52then Kiner himself got a couple drives.
55:55>> Henderson would get a couple plays.
55:57Everybody else got drives.
55:59>> I mean, there was there was at least there was at least two drives where where Kiner was in. Well, and then Kiner
56:05will come out for the third down.
56:07>> Right, yeah.
56:07>> Kiner will Kiner will come out for the long down and distance.
56:10>> I had overs on a couple of like Henderson props. So, like every time he'd be on the field, I'm like, "Oh,
56:13good. Henderson's going to get this drive." And then like three plays later, he'd be back on the bench. And it's like, "Oh, he's not going to get all the
56:17drive."
56:18>> Yeah.
56:19Uh I I mean, I would again, I would love to play Rhamondre against the Miami Dolphins.
56:26It would be some real sick [ __ ] for them to use Trevian like to use this as like a get-right spot for Trevian Henderson.
56:32Like, "Hey, man, we took you in the second round. We believe in you. Let's give you 13 rushes in the second half
56:37against the Dolphins." I don't I don't think they will. That doesn't really seem like a Vrabel thing. But there is a
56:41lot of input volatility here with Rhamondre, I think.
56:44>> Yeah. I mean, I it's And that's like a logical thought. But my from like a DFS standpoint, even if you wanted to go
56:50like down that route, just play Jordan Colemen or play uh McGowan or something. Like McGowan, I guess he'll probably be like comparable
56:59to Henderson, like that thought process.
57:00But like if I'm going to go off the board and just like pray with a cheap guy, I'd rather just do it with
57:06Jordan Colemen anyway, probably.
57:09>> And then on the Dolphins side of the game, Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell. I mean, we we got to come down to Malik Washington
57:19targets here. I cannot get I get this guy so freaking much in in the optimal. I I'm just he he makes
57:26makes me sick how often. Um his I I think probably like his median is fine, but he just keeps getting dominated by
57:34different guys in targets every single week. Like it'll be a different guy will pop up and leave Malik Washington.
57:40At 19% last week it was last week it was Dulcich, but I mean how are you viewing Caleb Douglas versus Chris Bell?
57:50>> Yeah. Um I mean I think it's all gross. Uh >> It's all gross.
57:56>> Probably lean Chris Bell. 19% target share last week for him compared to 14 for Douglas. You had or sorry that was
58:03yeah no. You had 68% route participation for Douglas in his first game back. Only 54 for Bell.
58:09So maybe you get Douglas on the I don't know. Douglas was on the field 81 88% route participation weeks one and two so
58:15you probably do get him ramped up a bit here.
58:18Um so I'm actually going to go back on that and go Douglas I think actually looks kind of interesting at 4100 um at least within
58:25the context of a Malik Willis offense.
58:29With Malik Washington it's still just like he his target share last week was only 14% but other than that like he's led the
58:35team every single week except for one um where he was second to H and in week week two. So like the targets are there. It's just the
58:43targets from Malik Willis are not equal to targets from anybody else.
58:48Yeah.
58:49>> Yeah.
58:50All right.
58:51Those are all the games. That's all the input volatility and and arguing about them for the main slate. I'll be back
58:58with Jacob tomorrow. Uh if you guys want access to this data to the projections to the sims head on over to
59:04runthesims.com and uh see you later.
