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Davis Mattek on Brock Bowers

VideoArguing Inputs (Week 8)
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From the video

Video: Arguing Inputs (Week 8)
Bowers is a I mean, almost like a 30% peripheral target share guy like with these guys on the field in his career, but then you also have Mayer who has beaten his projection a bunch of times... Bowers is only at 18. Like obviously you're never projecting Bowers that way... Bowers has been 25% or lower in every game this year other than the one where he came back week three and got like every target.
Mentioned at 20:57 – 22:22

STACKED’s take

NeutralProjection

Bowers' 18% projection undervalues his 30% career target share; high volatility.

Aaron Jones SR identifies Brock Bowers as a projection modeling challenge: he carries a 30% peripheral target share in his career when on the field, but has been 25% or lower in every game this season except week three when he returned and got every target. His projection sits at 18%, which Aaron Jones SR notes is obviously not how Bowers should be projected given his peripheral share, but the volatility and competition from Trey Tucker (who can spike to 27% in games where Bowers is lower) make him difficult to model accurately.

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