0:00All right, much to my chagrin, it does appear that Josh Allen is just going to try and use the power of friendship to
0:07give DJ Moore a like 13 fantasy points per game season. It was not working at all last week, but DJ Moore has a 33%
0:16target share for the Buffalo Bills. I mean Dalton Kincaid has been their most effective pass catcher.
0:23I I've been waiting for them to actually play Skyler Bell more, but I mean DJ Moore is $50 this week on on DraftKings.
0:31Like what are we thinking in terms of like DJ Moore base rates? Like having him and Shakir equal is probably like we probably got to move him to like
0:4124%, which I absolutely hate. I It's bringing me no joy to report this.
0:46>> Yeah, no, I I agree with that. Like Shakir's kind of just like lived in that like 16 to 20% range, but Moore's been
0:53targeted more. So like uh yeah, I I agree like Moore should be higher.
0:59>> It's it's a bummer um cuz I was just absolutely not not drafting DJ Moore in the best ball stuff at all. I guess the
1:06the thing about DJ Moore for DFS and the thing about Josh Allen in general is probably his most nuclear games, you
1:16actually probably don't want to stack him at all. I I would actually love an analysis on that. Like do like I I know
1:22from last year in his two mega explosions last year, none of his teammates topped 20 half PPR points. Uh no no bonuses, uh no multiple touchdown
1:34games, and uh you can actually get Josh Allen this week. There's enough like value options on DraftKings that you can play him. I I get the sense that I would
1:42prefer to play Josh Allen with with none of his teammates.
1:46>> Yeah, like he's I never actually do it and then I regret it a lot, but um yeah, like I I feel like you can make
1:56really good lineups where you just have like you just get correlation elsewhere in your lineup whether it's like two teammates or guys against each other or
2:04whatever you do more of that and then just have Josh Allen by himself like it's completely viable. I just never actually do it and then I'm always upset
2:12that I didn't.
2:13>> Yeah. And you know a 40 42% assigned touchdown market share from a quarterback that's got to be the highest on our database by like like no one no
2:22one else is above 25 I bet a quarterback.
2:24>> Yeah, I was going to say like at first glance that looks wrong but also I don't know that it's wrong.
2:29>> It might be low. Might be low. Josh Allen Josh you know you know if like if his teammates were being super honest like
2:37if James Cook got given truth serum he'd be like this is preposterous it's insane that this guy gets two rushing touchdowns a game this guy can't
2:45give me anything. We have Trevor Lawrence out here kneeling on the one to give by Shelton rushing touchdowns and and Josh says nah brother nah that's all
2:53me. Probably the the this is actually probably the most important input question of the week for the Los Angeles Rams which is if Puka does not play
3:03for the Los Angeles Rams and frankly if you made me bet it one way I'd probably say one more week Puka doesn't play. I I
3:10would say if you if I got to bet it minus 110 both sides I probably say he doesn't play this week. Um
3:16how high can you realistically get Davante Adams' target share? Can it be 40%? I mean JSN has a 40% target share
3:25this year on a good offense right? And Adams I think is at a 38% target share but that includes the Australia game
3:33where he played sick and Puka played in that game.
3:37Terrace Marshall is not going to play in this game. He's got a medial ankle sprain so he I would say he's like a
3:42almost 100% to be out this week.
3:45Mumfield was the big beneficiary last week. Um I don't maybe is playable at 3400 I don't know what uh what how are
3:54you thinking about assigning this?
3:55>> Yeah, I mean Adams Adams still only only ended up at like 24% last week. He was 32 with the the week before that without
4:02Puka. So, like somewhere around 30 for Adams. Um I'm fully expecting and waiting for Winningham to screw everything up. Like, I thought he was going to just come back
4:13and be involved last week and then he did, you know, nothing. Didn't even get targeted. So, I assume this week you'll
4:19you know, give targets to Mumfield like you said and then Winningham will just come out of nowhere and ruin it all.
4:25But, um yeah, I think probably somewhere around 30% for Adams and then I guess you just have to assume that Mumfield is going to be involved this
4:33week. He was at like 15% last week.
4:36>> Yeah, so Mumfield uh Mumfield was the big beneficiary last week. Winningham did not play in
4:46week two, which was the the huge Davante Adams game. I mean, Adams was good last week as well. But, then Winningham did
4:53play against the Broncos. He played 21 offensive snaps, which ended up being 24% of the snaps after playing 41% in week one. He didn't earn a target cuz
5:02he's bad. You know, Winningham is bad.
5:05Mumfield I actually I mean, Mumfield at in college at Pittsburgh actually was like maybe kind of like vaguely interesting as a as a prospect like a
5:14like a smidgen. But, I you know, the way I'm looking at the Rams offense is I'm like shouldn't I just probably give Tyler
5:22Higbee like a 14-15% target share cuz it looks like he was basically just subbing in for Ferguson's snaps while Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen stayed in
5:33their role. I mean, I guess maybe the one wrinkle is that maybe Claire, who they drafted in the second round with an
5:40extra week of practice cuz this is what happened last year was when Puka was out Ferguson got activated for the first
5:46time and had a a big game. Had a had a like a 38-yard touchdown reception and stuff. I mean, it's all a mess, but I I
5:54I do think Mumfield and Higbee are probably both like really good salary-relief options.
5:59>> Yeah, agree with that cuz it it seems like they did exactly what you said, like Parkinson and Allen just stayed in
6:04their role. You didn't get like additional Parkinson targets or anything like that. You just had Higbee step in, go from tight end four to tight end one
6:11essentially uh with a 20% target share.
6:14Ferguson was a 29% in week two. So, like you saw most of those Ferguson targets just go to Tyler Higbee. And we know,
6:21you know, from the past that he is a capable pass catcher. It's just really guessing what McVay and, you know, Stafford are going to do, but it seems
6:30seems likely that Higbee's just going to jump all of those guys as far as tight end one in terms of targets.
6:36>> I mean, they definitely won't do whatever they just did in the last game.
6:39That is like so not Sean McVay's thing.
6:41They just doesn't it just doesn't carry over from one week to the other. I mean, I guess the the complicating factor here
6:47is that uh the Rams probably or the Eagles probably don't have enough in the locker to really push them. Would be
6:56would be the issue is like, I mean, maybe like a different version of the Eagles, but the Eagles look like [ __ ]
7:00dude. Like they they cannot generate they cannot generate any push in the run game. Barkley looks like he's lost maybe a step and a half, honestly, at this
7:11point. Maybe it was just last week he was playing with the stinger. Maybe he'll be a little bit better this week.
7:15Um they can't get Mecole Hardman going at all. So, like maybe this just ends up being a game where like the kind of the
7:23way I'm thinking of it right now is if we can only get Adams to like a 28% target share or whatever, maybe the move
7:28is just Mumfield and that's it. And don't play too much of Mumfield and Higbee together cuz I just don't know how much passing there'll be in the game
7:36overall.
7:37>> Yeah, I mean, the game only has like a 44 and a half total, which is several points lower than I think what comes to mind when you say
7:44you would have to play >> Yeah. All right. So, another game that uh maybe seemed fun at the beginning of the year, but I don't think it's going
7:51to be very fun, but we have the Buccaneers who are going to be playing with Jaylen Daniels as the starting quarterback and not Baker Mayfield. Uh I
7:58think definitely think you got to uh I mean, these are just the base rates. So, I think we probably do Daniels at something like 15, 16, 17% uh
8:0717% market share of the team rushing attempts. I mean, that is like the one thing that he offers. It's actually kind
8:13of crazy that Jaylen Daniels even made the team as a backup quarterback. It's very, very rare for undrafted free agents to make teams as quarterbacks
8:22anyway, and then very rare for them to be clearly the quarterback two and not the quarterback three. I think obviously you probably have to nuke everyone's
8:30catch rate and completion rate. I'll say the one thing for Daniels, if you were wanting to play Ted Ginn Jr. at 3,100
8:37with Jaylen McMillan out, is he will probably extend plays. He will probably try and push the ball down field a little bit more. Um so, I mean, $3,100
8:49Ted Ginn Jr., but like yeah, I think 20% for Egbuka, 13, 14% for Godwin. I mean, I guess the one input thing that is kind
8:57of interesting is Bucky did get benched at the end of the last game. Bowl said there was no injury. He got benched for
9:04a pass protection thing. And I would think he'll show up as semi-playable in our stuff.
9:10>> Um yeah, I don't know. What do you What do you think about the Bucks inputs?
9:13>> Yeah, I mean, I think it's To me, these are like the most difficult spots to project because it's just like kind of
9:19guessing how exactly how bad Jaylen Daniels is going to be at completing passes. Um but yeah, like McMillan being out, obviously it kind of solidifies
9:30routes for guys like Ted Ginn Jr., but then, you know, what how often he gets targeted is is a the separate thing. Um
9:36obviously had a touchdown last week, but still only ended up with like a 10 per sorry, 8% uh target share. So, he was
9:4120% in week two, 8% last week, 10% week one. Like, he'll be out there running routes, but probably not getting the ball. Um, I
9:49said it in Discord, Bucky Irving's going to be a problem, I think, as far as if he's going to be this bad and this
9:55inefficient, but also just like dominate Kenny Gainwell in the backfield, it's going to be a projection issue because like you can't project him to be as bad
10:04as he's been from an efficiency standpoint. And if you just keep ramping up the market share that he's getting, it's just going
10:11to over project him like every week.
10:13>> Yeah. Uh, I mean, he used 3.1 yards per carry last week. Only caught half his targets, which generally is kind of a
10:21thing with running backs. You expect them to have like a really high >> Yeah, he's like 70-80.
10:25>> catch rate. Yeah. So, that is that is a bit of of an issue. I mean, I don't the probably just no one from this game is
10:32playable. Like, I don't even think there's a really Well, the the Green Bay wide receivers are for sure. I mean, Watson and Golden, but like the
10:40uh the backfield for the Green Bay Packers is like none of these guys are playable at all. There There's not enough expected points and the way that
10:49they are going to score the points. I I I mean, 17% for Tucker Kraft, like that might be a bit high. Like, I wonder if Watson and
10:57Golden should both be above 25% base rate.
11:02>> Yeah, I mean, target share.
11:04>> Golden's at like 22 and a half coming in today. Watson's at 22. Kraft is only at 14.
11:10Um, obviously no Jaylen Reed, so like those should bump up a bit, but like Skyy Moore did step in and have an 11% target
11:16share last week. So, he's doing something.
11:21>> Shout out to Skyy Moore for somehow um figuring his way out. So, uh another very interesting one, the Baltimore Ravens have Zay Flowers back.
11:30Zay Flowers has run about like 17 routes on on the year. He's played he played one half in week one and he ran 14
11:38routes last week. Um if he hit the there's this is a fun stat, which is that had he run as many
11:46routes as Chris Olave has run to this stage in the year with his current routes run, he'd have 7,000 receiving yards because Olave just runs a billion
11:53routes.
11:55Frankly, 31% target share, I mean, it might be a smidgen, just a a slight smidgen high, but not by
12:05much. He is going to completely dominate this passing game and is going to be hyper-efficient and I think he's like I
12:12mean what do we do for the rush rate though?
12:16I mean, the rush rate for the Ravens in this game might be might end up being like 57% or whatever cuz they're just
12:22the Titans are so bad and Cam Ward is so bad.
12:25>> Yeah, I think you assume they're going to run a lot. You probably give a little bit more work to Justice Hill just from the sense
12:33of like the whole pie gets bigger and so his percentage probably goes up a little bit. Um and then it's kind of like I
12:38think the opposite thing with Flowers too. Like yeah, he's going to get targeted a ton, but whatever week he does finally run like 90% of routes, you
12:46assume the targets per route run just comes down because that's how it works.
12:50Although maybe it won't and he's just going to be like a 35% guy.
12:53>> Yeah, I mean, he's running routes along to like Andrews looks like he is completely cooked. Uh he lost routes last week. Hebner, Smythe, and Josh
13:04Quevis all played at least 15% of the snaps. Smythe actually played one more snap. Uh I mean, that could be matchup
13:11specific, but like Chris Moore, Wester, and Saratt um are all uh are all playing. So, uh you know,
13:20it's it's not uh it it's not a situation where there's anyone who will take significant volume away from him. So, I
13:29don't know. Like, I could I could see Flowers being a really strong play at $6,900 at like uh
13:41I mean, I don't think he'll be 20% owned, but he's going to be pretty owned cuz he's been so good and there's so
13:46little resistance um for the for the Titans. I mean, they're so bad.
13:52>> Yeah, he like he won't be that popular because one, people will like talk themselves off of him because they're Well, and
13:59>> Henry's just going to be jammed.
14:01>> Yeah. Um but yeah, no, he he and and like I assume he's going to run more routes. He ran like 63% last week. Um I
14:07had I I I think I projected like 60% last week, so I was close there. Kind of assumed that if he played, he was going
14:13to play a decent amount, but not be a full go. Um I assume that he's just kind of a full go this week uh and that
14:21drives him up, obviously.
14:23>> Should get Should get closer. All right, Jacksonville Cincinnati. Multiple interesting things here. Um Brian Thomas Jr. down to a 13%
14:31target share. Probably need to move Travis Etienne down and move Josh Cameron up a smidge.
14:3713% [snorts] probably high for Brian Thomas Jr.
14:40Probably need a little bit more on Jacoby. And then last week, the backfield tilted even more towards Etienne, particularly at the goal line.
14:49Um it's just it really frustrating to try and project a backfield where they're using four guys because like no
14:59No team uses four guys, right? Like, it's it it never lasts. The Jaguars did it for one game last year, and then they
15:07traded Tank Bigsby. Um but there's there's not much room to slide that much more to Etienne in the projections as long as they are using
15:15four guys.
15:16>> Yeah, like hopefully they just start making somebody inactive. Like, I mean, we saw with the Giants. They had the four-man backfield, then suddenly you
15:23had Singletary inactive and it just cleans everything up. But yeah, the thing with Tuten also like getting more work during the competitive part of the game. But
15:33like it is in line with priors and assumptions which is always nice. Like it's more it would it would have been
15:39more difficult if like Rodriguez was starting to get more cuz you're just like all right, are they really just going to like play him over Tuten? But
15:45with Tuten at least you can I think be pretty aggressive with like ramping up his market share and just hoping that he's
15:52taking over.
15:53>> Yeah.
15:54I I would like to IKB play by Shell Tuten this week, but there's just not an I don't just don't think
16:02there's enough there from the actual on-field data to do too much to his projection.
16:10I Do you have any thoughts on how low to scale Brian Thomas Jr.? Are you going to keep Are you going to keep Martin Galing
16:16that one?
16:17>> I don't know what to do with him cuz like obviously he was just non-existent last week. He ran like 30% of routes. He
16:22got one target or whatever. But like the week before that he had nine targets.
16:26And week one before he got hurt, he was running like 80% of routes and getting targeted. So I don't really know what to do with him.
16:35Like I thought going into last week it seemed pretty clear that like he was still going to be involved and it was
16:40just a matter of if he ever actually has a good game. And then now it's just like okay, well is he just clearly the wide
16:46receiver three now?
16:47>> Yeah. I mean Josh Cameron started the game over him. So you never you never know how Yeah, you never know how dark
16:55you never know how dark things can get there. All right, so the next one is another backfield that is very annoying.
17:03There was a quote that just came out before we started here. I believe it was Jeremy Fowler who said that Woody Marks
17:09is expected to earn more of the backfield work for the Texans, which is very much against my prior coming into the season. I
17:17thought Montgomery was going to get an insane amount of volume. Scored three touchdowns in week one. Marks played a bunch last week, got a goal line
17:25touchdown, which again, they they're kind of doing the Rams thing where they're rotating drive by drive and there's not a ton of like situational
17:33usage outside of bringing Marks in on long down and distance, but if Marks is going to get goal line stuff, I mean, $5,700
17:43Montgomery, like we like the Montgomery rushing share and touchdown share probably has to diminish a little bit.
17:52>> Yeah, um against my priors, too. So, >> Yeah.
17:55>> that's one where I always find it tough to like be too aggressive with like a Woody Marks in this situation where
18:00you're just like kind of relying on one week of data and some coach speak.
18:04>> Right.
18:04>> Um but at the same time, like they did seemingly like Marks last year, as well.
18:11Uh so, projecting more of a split does does make sense.
18:16>> It's just It's just one of those things where you don't want Marks at $4,700 to project that well, cuz again, it could
18:24just be like really much a one-week trend. And it's also hard with the when these insiders do the quotes of like,
18:32well, what does that mean? Who told you that? Are you getting that from someone inside the building? Like I I don't
18:36know. I mean, I would have expected David Montgomery to get 2024 levels of Joe Mixon work, cuz Woody Marks is not a good interior
18:45runner. Al- Although, worth noting, it is kind of like the time of the year we have to start thinking of Okay, well,
18:51some of these teams are really bad and they just really need to dramatically shake things up, and the Texans are one
18:57of those teams. I mean, the Texans are 0 and 3. We have uh beat writers asking if Nick Caserio, the offensive coordinator,
19:03is going to get fired. And that is the kind of stuff that can make you shake things up. Actually, also on the Texans,
19:10Dalton Schultz played fewer snaps last week than Foster Moreau. Now, it does sound like Nico probably is going to be back this week,
19:19but I wonder if we all kind of got too excited about Dalton Schultz, who is still Dalton Schultz after one insane game.
19:28>> Yeah, I mean, 21% target share week one, 25% week two, and then dropped to 11% last week while Moreau was at 15.
19:35I assume he's still like a 18 to 20% guy, but yeah, like I I don't want to overreact too much to that, but obviously there is
19:45there's just always volatility when you're talking about non-like McBride Bowers type tight ends.
19:51>> Yeah, no, I I I definitely agree. All right. Another situation that is I mean, this is probably one of the keys to the
19:58slate is figuring out what's going to happen with the New York Jets this week.
20:01Breece Hall not going to play. We have Braelon Allen in. So, Isaiah Davis, I for I I didn't think Isaiah Davis played
20:09last week cuz he did not get any touches on offense because when Breece has been out in the past, we have seen Isaiah
20:18Davis kind of play in like a long down and distance annoying sort of time share role. Isaiah Davis didn't play on
20:25offense at all last week. Actually, hasn't played on offense at all this entire season. He's only played on special teams.
20:31Um, Braelon Allen is $5,200 against this really bad Bears defense. Sounds like there's a chance that Adnan Mitchell also is not able to play with the with
20:41the fractured finger. I mean, how do you start to break cuz you don't you definitely don't want to give Braelon Allen, you know, 78% of the rushes, 11%
20:50target share, and then he just like projects the same as Derrick Henry.
20:53>> Right. Although, I do think it's pretty likely that Allen is just the guy. Like, he missed most of last year, so that's,
21:01you know, obviously that impacts the Isaiah Davis uses that we saw um at times when when Hall was banged up. so like I think Breece Hall and
21:08Allen is just the guy and then Isaiah Davis is mixing in. Um but like, you know, probably like Isaiah Davis on
21:14third downs or something is is the way I would project it. Um but I I think it's one way or the other, I think Allen's
21:23going to project really well at 5,200.
21:25>> Yeah, I I mean, obviously he is I I remember I This is the game I have in my head, this Dolphins Jets game. Breece
21:32Hall and Allen had 11 rushes and five targets. Isaiah Davis had 10 rushes and six targets. Garrett Wilson uh and Davante Adams each had huge games in an
21:42overtime game against the Miami offense.
21:43That's that's the one that came into my mind, where it's like that is a fairly like you're you're making an assumption
21:52that I think is correct, but if Breece Hall and Allen is the most owned running back of the slate, which is definitely
21:58possible given his salary and given the way like he could pretty easily be the most owned play of the entire slate. And
22:05if he is, those are that's a that's a pretty big um there's pretty big assumptions being being made. And those assumptions are
22:14probably correct, but I do wonder if like like he might I wonder if he sims a little bit um too well, basically is is
22:22the thought.
22:22>> Yeah, no, he it's definitely I mean, obviously sims have flaws and I think that's one of the biggest ones is that
22:28like you can't I mean, you could, but they don't um account for the percent chance that like you're
22:39wrong when you're assumptions. So, like he's going to sim really well because the assumption is just going to be that he's RB1 and it's his backfield, but
22:47there is a higher than normal percent chance that that's just an incorrect assumption compared to you know, if we'd ever seen that happen before.
22:56>> For sure. And then the receivers, so Isaiah Williams was like fairly chalky last week. And if you only uh like
23:04looked at the box score, you'd be like, "Oh, dude, this guy sucked." He ran is He ran one fewer route than than Garrett
23:10Wilson. Ran 42% of the routes. He barely increased in price. I I don't think I don't think Andy Mitchell is going to
23:18play this week. Um I I think I think he probably I think he probably won't. And then Sedeeq as well. So, Sedeeq only ran
23:2655% of the routes. He did miss one drive with uh with an injury check. So, we'll uh we'll we'll see what's going on
23:34there. But, I mean, he he will also probably get owned this week based off how good he was last week.
23:39>> Yeah, uh second highest target share on the team. You had Garrett Wilson doing his normal thing getting 35%, and then
23:45it was Sedeeq at 22. Nobody else was above 15. Uh Jeremy Ruckert was third at 13 and 1/2. So, um I
23:52kind of assume that you see a similar thing this week where like it's just everything going to Garrett Wilson, and then Sedeeq getting
24:00the second most, and then everybody else is being sort of not really existent.
24:05>> Yes. And uh I Garrett Garrett Wilson also did have a concussion check at the end of the game. I mean, I think he's
24:11probably fine based on the reporting right now, but there's a chance that Gino comes into this game with Isaiah Williams, Aryan Smith, and Kenny Yeboah
24:19Sedeeq as his uh trio of pass catchers.
24:23Um which is fine.
24:25>> Aryan Smith is out. So, all right. Jets receivers behind Aryan Okay. So, if Garrett Wilson doesn't play, we're looking at Isaiah Williams, Malik
24:35McClain, Jamal Pritchett, and their practice squad wide receiver is Oh, old friend Tyler Johnson and Sterling Shepard, who actually caught a two-point
24:45conversion.
24:46Like Oh, there you go. Dante Moore fan says Garrett Wilson cleared the concussion evaluation before the Lions game minute. So, shout out shout out to
24:54uh to Garrett Wilson. All right, man. We got to do it. We got to We got to talk about the Bears. We got to talk about
25:00Kalif Raymond. Um base So, this is just this is just the algorithmic stuff based on the data that's come in uh for the season, but Luther Burden 21%
25:11target share, Kalif Raymond 18, A.J.
25:13Brown 13, Loveland 14.
25:16I mean, the degree to which this Kalif Raymond stuff has no analog I there's nothing. Like, this is it's it's Travis Fulgham, you know, it's it's
25:28it's stuff like that. Kalif Raymond has been in the NFL since 2016.
25:33Um he didn't have over 100 yards receiving until 2019. He's never topped 616 receiving yards. That happened in 2022.
25:41Uh that was the year Jameson Williams was out all year. Um with Ben Johnson as his offensive coordinator in 2024 and
25:492023, he had less than 700 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. I don't know what is going on here, dude.
25:57I I have no clue what's happening.
25:59>> I had no idea he played in the NFL before the Titans.
26:03>> Been around forever.
26:04>> Yeah.
26:05So, the the one thing that I kind of like from a projection standpoint about the Kalif Raymond stuff is that he's not
26:11actually getting a ton of targets. Like, week one he had 31% and that was absurd.
26:16But since then, 14% week two, 17% last week.
26:20Like if you take out the 41-yard catch and run, basically.
26:27He just had like a kind of normal slot game where he just, you know, catches six passes like low A-dot kind of thing.
26:34Um so, at least that you can kind of just like project that to happen and then assume that he's not going to keep
26:41scoring long touchdowns. Um this would actually be more difficult to project, I think, if like you had to guess if Kalif Raymond
26:48continues getting a 30% target share, which like he hasn't other than week one. So, I think just kind of projecting him for 17, 18% like works fine, and
26:59then you just hope he doesn't house one again if you're not playing him.
27:04>> [sighs] >> I mean, I >> Raymond is the only guy actually getting targets here.
27:08>> Michael Wilson is not a good comp at all. Michael Wilson was a relatively decent prospect who still plays for the
27:15same team that drafted him. It it It's not It's not the same thing at all.
27:21Cleef Raymond is 32.
27:24I Like I This is This is not a situation with with any kind of like real analog at all. It It It's not It's not like uh
27:34you know, I'm trying to think of like some other like It's not like Devonte Adams breaking out after being bad or um
27:42Not like Not even like De'Von Achane being good for for the New Orleans Saints for fantasy. It's It's not even anything like that. It would be You know
27:49what it would be like?
27:51It would be like if um Byron You know, it would be like if Mecole Hardman was really really good for the Bills
28:00right now. It would be like if Mecole Hardman was all of a sudden scoring like 12 fantasy points per game for the Bills
28:06right now. Is Is actually like a pretty good comp for it.
28:10>> Yeah, except like Cleef Raymond has at least been, I think, good in the role that he's asked to play in the past,
28:16whereas Mecole Hardman has been terrible at anything he's ever been asked.
28:20>> I mean, he uh in 2020 for the Titans, he had three for 118. He had six for 115 for Detroit
28:29in 2021 and four for 101 and one for the 2022 Detroit Lions. Um His greatest amount of career receptions ever
28:41was in that first game against Carolina.
28:46>> Yeah. I mean, the most likely the most likely case, I think, is still you get to February and people won't really remember who Khalif
28:55Raymond is. And then you're like, "Hey, remember when he had like those couple big games?" And you're like, "Oh, yeah, I kind of remember that."
29:02>> I think this is this is what I think is the most likely thing. I think that Burden continues to ascend. I mean,
29:07Burden leads the team in target share.
29:09He's clearly the best player. Burden continues to improve.
29:13Loveland really improves from where he's at right now. Like, Loveland will be like, "Oh my god, you remember how bad Loveland was
29:20at the start?" Do you remember that?
29:21That was really weird. Like, Cole Kmet was getting Remember that was wild, dude. But, and then, you know, Loveland has eight touchdowns and 900 yards or
29:30whatever. I mean, it's been a really slow start for for Loveland. And then, Adunze is the one that's like, "Oh, okay. So, it turns out
29:38Adunze actually wasn't any good. Tur- Turns out Adunze actually wasn't." That That is that is my That's >> Yeah, that drop was so bad.
29:47>> I mean, he Adunze is is uh like truly like uh first first ballot never been good. Um like not a good
29:55prospect. Really overrated first year.
29:59Um or whatever.
30:01Um I don't You know, I don't know. Like, Khalif Raymond is going to get played this week. That much I can tell you as a
30:06fact. Khalif Raymond will for sure get played in DFS this week.
30:10>> I Yeah, I mean, he's 3,600 and he's clearly involved. I think it's fine.
30:13But, yeah, you just have to keep in mind like the fantasy production last week was fluky as hell. Like, he scored a 41-yard
30:22touchdown. That's not something Khalif Raymond is going to do regularly at all.
30:26But, like, he's going to run routes.
30:28He's going to be on the field. He's I think long-term their third or fourth receiver pass-catcher.
30:36>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look, I I wouldn't I wouldn't I wouldn't bet my life that Roma Odunze scores more fantasy points than Khalil
30:46Raymond. I have Odunze ranked ahead of Khalil Raymond in like my weekly rankings or whatever, but I wouldn't I wouldn't like make it a huge point to
30:53argue there. I would I would I mean J Mack offered me like the worst line of all time for Odunze to score or
31:00uh Burden to uh Burden to outscore Raymond for the rest of the year.
31:04But like Burden, I mean I have in my redraft stuff I Burden ranked as a top 40 player. I just I mean he There's been
31:10nothing wrong with his usage at all.
31:12>> Yeah, no, I think that you should be bullish on Burden.
31:18Um like the routes haven't been The route share hasn't been super optimistic, but even you know, this week he got up to
31:2477%. Uh the first 2 weeks he was below 70. You're just not seeing like a ton of routes for any of the the Bears pass
31:31catchers. Um Odunze was at 74 last week, 77 for Burden was the high mark. So like that's the only negative, but like he is
31:37earning targets when he's on the field.
31:39Uh and Yeah, I think that even though the fantasy production has been kind of hit or miss, you know, kind of
31:46disappointing to to start the season for Burden. He's the guy that I actually look at and I'm like, "Okay, like I
31:50think I I think he's good or or I think like everything looks good for him and it's likely to continue long term. Whereas
31:58like Raymond, it's like, "Okay, he's getting some fluky stuff right now.
32:02Um I don't think it's going to be a long-term thing."
32:05>> Yeah. I'm I'm in I'm in agreement there.
32:09Next up, the Minnesota Vikings with potentially no Justin Jefferson. So Addison, 5,300, Jennings, 3,800, Felton,
32:183,000, Hockenson, 3,300. It is obviously an insane match up to not have Justin Jefferson cuz if this if they were against almost any other team, we could
32:28just look at the Vikings with no with no Jefferson and say, "Not interested. I'm out. I'm out. They're going to suck.
32:35They're going to lose."
32:37Uh but they are they are probably going to win and they're probably going to score a bunch of points. They have a
32:4224-point team total. I am I The thing I am most worried about going into this slate is that I sit down at my computer to run
32:50the Sims on Sunday morning and the computer tells me I T'wan Jennings is like a smash of smashes. I I can't I
32:57can't have that. I don't want it at all, but it's a this is a tough spot.
33:01>> Yeah, I I really just hope Jefferson plays. Um I think probably my least I I mentioned it earlier with Jalen Daniels.
33:07I hate trying to project the like uh you know, the step-in quarterback that has no history and is probably really bad. But aside from that, like when you
33:16get your clear number one like key to the offense receiver out, it's so hard to like to nail down efficiency there.
33:26Um because like he doesn't have like he doesn't have a direct impact on, you know, Jordan Addison's catch share, but he does have an impact because
33:34teams will defend differently. So, I'm hoping he just plays and ends up looking pretty good at 7,300. But if he's out,
33:40like $5,300 Addison and $3,800 Jennings I think have to look good in addition to 6K Aaron Jones in this spot.
33:48>> Yeah.
33:496K Aaron Jones um 6K Aaron Jones I I'm probably out as well.
33:58Uh they signed uh what's his name? Devin Neal.
34:01>> Devin Neal, yeah. Yeah.
34:02>> So, Devin Neal is definitely a more professional NFL rusher than DJ Dallas and De'Montre Clayborn um at this point. So,
34:13I particularly if Jones cuz a guy like Jones, they don't throw to the running backs at all. They also This is crazy. They have not run a play
34:24inside the 10-yard line in each of the last two games. Isn't that bizarre? And that's so wild.
34:28>> crazy. I didn't realize that.
34:29>> Yeah. And all of last year, they had nine rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Like the expected points available for Vikings running backs is really low.
34:40So, I'm probably out on gigachad Aaron Jones. Um and an extra giga out if Devin Neal is active.
34:48>> Yeah, I was going to say that's definitely a spot to just pay attention to the inactives, too. Like if they go
34:52into that game with all four running backs, it has the potential to just be messy because we know that they don't
34:57want to actually give Aaron Jones, you know, 25%.
35:00>> They probably [snorts] will go into the game with all four running backs cuz Clayborn is a special teamer.
35:06>> Yeah. Yeah.
35:07>> Yeah.
35:07>> I I was thinking they would just make Dallas inactive potentially and >> Yeah.
35:12>> Neal.
35:12>> Uh well, except he's a special teamer, too.
35:15>> Is he? Okay.
35:16>> Yeah. So, so probably and and Bread Bread is in is a fullback. Um >> Yeah.
35:21>> I think as well. So, yeah. I mean, that is This is and this is a situation you're I actually can like everyone
35:27listening this right now, you're going to have to make decisions about it all this cuz the bike or cuz the Dolphins
35:32are that bad that even a Kyle like even a Kyler Murray team with no Justin Jefferson like you're going to have to decide on
35:38Jordan Addison who had a good game last week. Um that's going to be I mean, what do what do you I mean, I guess you you scale the rush
35:47rate up. So, that's that's the first thing is you move their rush rate to like 45-ish percent or something like that. But I mean, Addison with no
35:54Jefferson, I bet historically, Addison with no Jefferson on the field is like crazy. Like probably like a probably like 33% targets per route run or
36:03something.
36:04>> Yeah, I mean, like I would want to play Addison. Like he's and and project him highly. Like he's not a bad receiver, I
36:10don't think. He's somebody that it it's not one of those instances where like the wide receiver one is out and you're like, well,
36:17obviously I need to give more targets to wide receiver two, but wide receiver two is really bad and is he actually going
36:22to get targets? Like I don't think that's the case with Addison.
36:24>> Yeah. No, I I agree. I agree with that.
36:28Okay, the Los Angeles Chargers.
36:32Boy, am I I as a as a hater, as someone who enjoys hating, a boy am I loving this Chargers season. I mean, it is just
36:39so funny. So, Keeton got red zone work last week. Uh Vi'dale is playing long down and distances. I mean, these numbers are actually
36:49probably about right on Hampton. Sounds like the the algorithm has got it has got it locked in. Um Arondae Gadston starts at tight end last week, runs all
36:59the routes, and gets three targets, no receptions, one of the worst drops you'll ever see. They played um Well, his little brother played a little
37:10bit. Patrick Patrick Herbert played a little bit. And then Hayden Rucci actually played uh one more snap than Gadston did. Trey Harris out-targeted QJ
37:21last week. I I would probably start to slide the offense Trey over QJ a little bit. Um I mean, man, the the Chargers
37:31Chargers are just bad, dude. They're just really bad.
37:35>> Yeah, and that's they're probably just going to burn me like all season because I feel like they shouldn't be bad, but
37:40they are.
37:41>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Gadston was chalk last week. Definitely a chance that uh it was like bad chalk last week, but in
37:52a uh a worse I mean, this is just so fantasy football, but against in a much more difficult match up, just ends up
37:58having a good game in the spot for no real good reason.
38:02Um but yeah, I mean, I I don't want to play Trey Harris. I I guess Ladd is maybe sort of interesting because it does look
38:08like he's healthy. Like he was back to full routes in this last game. I mean, I would say the just doing this doing this napkin
38:15math-wise, I'm like, "Well, how does How do we not have Ladd for 25% target share?"
38:19>> Yeah, I'll say I think I'd be pretty bullish on Ladd just cuz he got back to full routes last week. Like he wasn't
38:24targeted a lot. He was only at 15%.
38:27Um so like his season average is pulling down because he's only at 17% for the season because of the injury and then
38:3315% last week. But like he's somebody that will end up projecting higher and should be in the low 20s, low to mid 20s. Um
38:41and I mean really with Gadston to to your point too, like not that you should be super confident in him because again, you just should
38:49never be confident in like any tight end that isn't Trey McBride or Brock Bowers, but um he still ran 65% of the routes.
38:56Like he was out there running routes, which is the biggest thing. You're going to just have week to week variance where
39:01he does get targeted or doesn't get targeted or or whatever, but like didn't do anything weird as far as the tight end routes go. He ran a ton of
39:08routes.
39:09>> He ran a ton of routes, yeah. He ran a ton of routes. He just I mean Herbert is, you know, he's just not he's not
39:15playing that well, right? I mean that's just that at the end of the day, your quarterback's not playing that well, running 65% of the routes, you know, I'm
39:22sure there there's tight ends for the Dolphins running 65% of the routes, you know, you don't want to you don't want
39:27to play Greg Dulcich in >> Right.
39:28>> in DFS.
39:30Uh the Raiders, I mean, how high can you get Bowers' target share? Like the the the baseline is 30%.
39:40I mean this dude, he scored 27 points last week. He looked un He looked unreal, dude. He He looked fully fully
39:46good to go. And then one other thing, uh I actually just saw someone speculating about this on Twitter and it wasn't
39:53something that I had really thought about, but they're definitely right, which is Gentry has left every game thus far for the Raiders for an ankle
40:00check. He's left every game to go either get his ankle looked at or get it taped up. So I wonder if there's some kind of
40:07efficiency doc or something I mean they're they're feeding him the ball.
40:11They like he is getting He's got at least 23 touches in every game thus far.
40:16Uh Mike Washington happened to score the touchdown last week, but I do wonder if Lads playing banged up.
40:22>> Yeah. Well, and I saw one of the fantasy points guys, I don't remember which one, but tweeted out like Jente's efficiency
40:29like between the 20s basically has been completely in line with like his expect Like completely in line with what you expect and then it's just like he's run
40:37horribly inside the 10.
40:40So, I I assume he bounces back and just it it evens out eventually.
40:45>> I I I believe that as well and I mean this is not this is not the spot that I will
40:52be playing him. I mean I just think they're going to get ran out of the building here.
40:58I mean I guess they're only four and a half point dogs. I would play Bowers here though. I mean Bowers actually is
41:03more interesting to me >> 95% route share for Bowers this week. I I mean I got that one completely wrong.
41:08I assumed that they were going to kind of treat it like they did at times last year where you know, he was out there like 65, 70%
41:16Yeah, he just straight up played wide receiver and ran 95% of routes.
41:21>> Yeah, he did. That actually that actually is a good note, which is that he did just straight up play wide
41:25receiver. Michael Mayer's snap share was the exact same as it was before. There was no difference in Michael Mayer's snap and route share from Bowers in,
41:34Bowers out. All the Bowers stuff came at the expense of Tucker, Naylor, Besh, Benson Yeah.
41:43Yeah. Cody Cody White keeps catching these touchdowns. I mean I'm just going to go ahead and say I don't think that
41:49is going to continue, but hey, I've been I've been wrong I've been wrong about about these things before.
41:57Denver is now down, so Coleman is on IR.
42:02Harvey left and then came back last week.
42:06Dobbins, I don't know how much longer this can continue. I mean look, I like JK Dobbins as much as everyone else at
42:13Dobbins' peak, but this dude is I mean, they're trying to they're trying to win they're trying to win the Super Bowl, dude. They were in the AFC
42:21Championship game last year. I don't think you can keep running Dobbins out like this. Um I don't know what like what I don't know
42:28what we have like his like baseline efficiency stuff for, but it's got to be too high.
42:33>> Yeah, hasn't hasn't been pretty so far.
42:35Um but also like what are they what else are they going to do? Like you don't have Holman. Harvey's not, you know, an
42:42a lead back either. Obviously, Tyler Badie's not. Um I feel like it's just one of those gross spots where you kind
42:48of have to project the bulk of the rushing share to Dobbins because that's kind of their only option even though it's a really unappealing option.
42:56>> Yeah. I I mean, it could be could be Harvey could be Harvey more.
43:03I don't know. [snorts] I I I It I mean, it would have to be it would have to be Harvey more. Harvey only has
43:08five touches on the year.
43:10>> It's either Harvey Moore or it's just continue to sink with Dobbins.
43:14>> Or or just like pass more as a team. I mean, that's also that's also the other option is you just you just end up being
43:20a heavier pass team. And then on the other side of this game, if I was a betting man, I would bet that Mike Evans
43:28probably would not play. So, then you've got Cowing, Hodge, Watkins, uh and someone whose name we are about to learn on the practice squad, I'm
43:39sure. And then Kittle back to full route participation last week. Uh McCaffrey, you know, full full usage as well. I mean, what do we do if Evans does not
43:50play? Do we do we nuke 49ers offensive efficiency?
43:54>> I think it just runs through McCaffrey and Deebo on designed shorter stuff, probably.
44:01Um I mean, you there and then obviously there's always the potential for like the random guy you've never heard of to
44:07just score three touchdowns cuz it's Brock Purdy in the Niners offense and it's really good. Um but I assume it's just a lot of design stuff for
44:15McCaffrey, Deebo, and Kittle, and rushing.
44:19>> Yeah. I mean a lot of what the 49ers offense has done in the past has been when the studs are out the
44:31when one or more of the studs are out, the usage just condenses on the guys who are still left. However, when Shanahan decides to flip the
44:40switch, I mean, you you we've got the Richie James and the Kendrick Bourne and the Jake Tanjis and the Ross Dwelley.
44:46Like he can obviously do it with the other guys. I would bet that probably what they do with this configuration of players is Deebo
44:57ends up getting a pretty hefty workload, but I bet Kittle and McCaffrey get like over like 60% of the touches for the
45:0449ers in this game.
45:06>> Yeah. Ear- earlier I I said Deebo and McCaffrey, I meant Kittle and McCaffrey.
45:10But like obviously Deebo will be involved also.
45:13>> Yeah.
45:14Uh all right, boys. Those are all of the big inputs to discuss this week. Uh we'll continue doing the show Wednesdays
45:24at noon Eastern time. I'll be back with all of you guys tomorrow with Jacob for thinking about DFS. Uh make sure you
45:31head on over to runthesims.com if you want to run the sims yourself. Check out these DFS tools and uh make sure you
45:38like the video.
