VideoFrom Davis Mattek
Week 2 NFL DFS Game-By-Game Preview
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 27 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Sep 17, 2026
Published
Thu, September 17, 2026
39
Player insights
39
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron JonesAdonai MitchellBijan RobinsonBraelon AllenBreece HallBryce YoungBucky IrvingChase BrownChristian WatsonChuba HubbardColston LovelandDavid MontgomeryDe'Von AchaneDerek Carr
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
NegativeProjection30:23
Davis Mattek is skeptical of Aaron Jones's ceiling, citing a lack of juice, an offense that doesn't funnel value to RBs, and the need for a rotation to keep him healthy. Mattek projects a limited outcome of around 80 yards and warns against playing him as a high-owned, aging asset. Despite this, Jones is projected to be the lead back for the Minnesota Vikings at a $5,100 DraftKings price point following Jordan Mason's move to IR.
Insight pageAdonai Mitchell
PositiveProjection67:00
Davis Mattek notes that Adonai Mitchell has more upside in games where the team is trailing, potentially reaching six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Insight pageBijan Robinson
NegativeUsage2:34
Davis Mattek highlights Bijan Robinson's elite usage, noting he led the team in targets and points in Week 1, but warns of a low-floor outcome similar to Devon Achane's Week 1 if the Falcons' offense remains non-functional.
Insight pageBraelon Allen
NegativeUsage65:37
Davis Mattek notes that the Jets' backfield usage between Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is a split necessitated by extreme heat and high-volume run game scripts.
Insight pageBreece Hall
NegativeUsage65:37
Davis Mattek notes that the Jets' backfield usage between Breece Hall and Braelon Allen is a split necessitated by extreme heat and high-volume run game scripts.
Insight pageBryce Young
NegativeProjection7:12
Davis Mattek argues that the Panthers' coaching staff is handcuffing Bryce Young by forcing him into under-center and heavy tight-end formations, effectively asking him to play like Alex Smith rather than utilizing his strengths in empty formations and backyard-style scrambling. Mattek projects only 27 pass attempts for Young in the upcoming game, noting that the team's conservative approach limits his fantasy ceiling.
Insight pageBucky Irving
PositiveUsage45:39
Bucky Irving is a primary DFS target with projected 20-25% ownership. He has established a clear lead-back role, out-snapping and out-targeting Kenneth Gainwell, and is involved in pony formations, making his outlook bullish.
Insight pageChase Brown
NegativeUsage56:58
Davis Mattek acknowledges that Chase Brown has a good role, but warns that the matchup against the Houston Texans is difficult, citing James Cook's struggles against them last week.
Insight pageChristian Watson
NegativeUsage24:09
Davis Mattek is not reading too much into Christian Watson's performance last week, noting that his usage was likely a beneficiary of facing a blitz-heavy defense that left corners on islands in favorable spots.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
NegativeValue4:42
Davis Mattek and Kyle Manungai are both in on Chuba Hubbard at $5,800 for DFS, noting he received all high-value and green zone touches in Week 1; however, his touch share faces slight risk if the game script allows for a blowout or as the team integrates Jonathan Brooks.
Insight pageColston Loveland
NegativeUsage36:44
Davis Mattek is concerned that Colson Loveland will be used primarily as a blocker rather than a receiver against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense, limiting his route participation.
Insight pageDavid Montgomery
NegativeUsage55:46
Davis Mattek is not high on David Montgomery at $6,500, clarifying that while Montgomery gets 70% of the touches, he is in a 50/50 snap split and unlikely to maintain his touchdown pace.
Insight pageDe'Von Achane
NegativeUsage30:59
Davis Mattek is not concerned about Devon Achane taking targets away from Alvin Kamara.
Insight pageDerek Carr
NegativeProjection27:23
Davis Mattek warns against viewing the Saints as a high-powered offense based on their Week 1 performance, noting that Derek Carr attempted 56-57 passes only because the team ran an unsustainable 90 offensive plays. Mattek characterizes Carr's performance as looking like 'the worst quarterback ever' for most of the game.
Insight pageDK Metcalf
PositiveValue57:27
Davis Mattek considers DK Metcalf a legitimate play at $5,200, citing his high volume of unconverted air yards (220 in Week 1) and the team's intent to feed him the ball, expecting the market to catch up to his potential.
Insight pageGarrett Wilson
NegativeProjection66:50
Davis Mattek suggests that Garrett Wilson's fantasy production is capped in games the Jets win, projecting roughly five catches for 61 yards as a realistic ceiling in those scripts.
Insight pageJack Strand
NegativeProjection0:47
Davis Mattek expresses negative polarization against Jack Strand, hoping he performs poorly, despite his potential role as the Falcons' starting quarterback.
Insight pageJahmyr Gibbs
PositiveProjection3:50
Davis Mattek compares Jahmyr Gibbs to the high-usage profiles of Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson, suggesting he is a must-play regardless of price.
Insight pageJalen Coker
PositiveSleeper7:57
Jaylen Coker is viewed as a high-upside sleeper, but Davis Mattek warns that his fantasy projection is limited by the Panthers' run-heavy offensive scheme, making him a less appealing play than he was previously.
Insight pageJared Wayne
NegativeUsage53:27
Davis Mattek notes that Jared Wayne will likely play a majority of the remaining routes for the Texans, but expects he will not have full participation and is not a strong target earner.
Insight pageJaxon Smith-Njigba
NegativeUsage60:27
Davis Mattek highlights Jaxon Smith-Njigba's ability to avoid tough defensive matchups like Christian Gonzalez because the Seahawks are creative in moving him around the formation.
Insight pageJoe Burrow
NegativeInjury29:36
Davis Mattek notes Joe Burrow is dealing with a back twinge and criticizes his decision-making on the field, comparing his reckless play to Anthony Richardson, but remains comfortable playing him in DFS.
Insight pageJonathon Brooks
PositiveRole4:32
The Panthers plan to integrate Jonathan Brooks into the offense to evaluate his health and capability; he was used as a pass-catching back on 12 snaps in Week 1 and is expected to see his role grow toward a 60/40 or 55/45 split with Chuba Hubbard.
Insight pageJordan Mason
NegativeInjury31:49
Jordan Mason has been placed on the IR, which shifts the lead back role for the Minnesota Vikings.
Insight pageJosh Downs
NegativeValue42:28
Davis Mattek expresses regret for not drafting Josh Downs more aggressively, stating that in his heart of hearts, he would draft Downs ahead of DeVonta Smith, even if his official rankings don't reflect that preference.
Insight pageJustin Jefferson
PositiveProjection28:35
Davis Mattek believes Justin Jefferson is fully back and is a strong DFS target at $7,800. Mattek notes that while the narrative of Jefferson performing better with Carson Wentz is correct, he would play him regardless of the quarterback. Jefferson was the only Minnesota Vikings receiver to record a reception in the previous week.
Insight pageKenneth Gainwell
NegativeUsage45:52
Kenneth Gainwell is seeing a secondary role behind Bucky Irving, with the backfield usage being less segmented than initially expected, though Gainwell remains involved in the rotation.
Insight pageLamar Jackson
PositiveProjection13:00
Davis Mattek believes Lamar Jackson will not be highly owned in DFS because the field is drifting toward cheaper quarterbacks with similar median projections. Mattek notes that Jackson looks '1,000% back to full Lamar' under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, who shows genuine enthusiasm for calling plays for him, unlike previous Baltimore coaching staffs.
Insight pageMark Andrews
NegativeValue13:28
Davis Mattek recommends Mark Andrews as a DFS target, labeling him 'overpriced' but noting that the field will likely avoid him, which provides leverage. He projects Andrews for approximately 6.5 targets and plans to target him as a stack with Lamar Jackson, particularly if Zay Flowers is ruled out.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
NegativeUsage67:07
Davis Mattek warns that MarShawn Lloyd is in a difficult spot due to potential time-of-possession issues, though he notes Lloyd could still be effective if the Packers win and he is able to run downhill.
Insight pageMatthew Golden
PositiveValue40:47
Matthew Golden is a primary DFS target at $4,700, despite concerns that he will be highly owned. Davis Mattek notes that Golden's usage is elite, evidenced by his 15.5 PPR points in a game without a touchdown, and believes he will easily outperform his redraft ADP.
Insight pageMichael Penix Jr.
PositiveRole2:19
Davis Mattek views Michael Penix Jr. as the Falcons' only hope at quarterback, noting he is the only passer on the team willing to throw outside the numbers.
Insight pageNico Collins
NegativeInjury30:41
Davis Mattek expects Nico Collins to miss the upcoming game due to a grade one strain, though he notes the injury is not overly serious and likely only requires a week or two of recovery.
Insight pagePat Freiermuth
PositiveUsage60:56
Davis Mattek identifies Pat Freiermuth as one of his most drafted players, citing his high route participation (82%) and reliable 'do your job' role as reasons he is a strong weekly play.
Insight pageRashod Bateman
NegativeDepth Chart12:29
Davis Mattek notes that Rashod Bateman will be one of the primary outside receivers for the Ravens alongside Devontes Walker. Regarding his performance, Mattek suggests that Bateman's poor start was largely due to being shadowed by Sauce Gardner, who does not typically travel into the slot, meaning Bateman is not necessarily 'completely off the board' despite the unencouraging start.
Insight pageRome Odunze
PositiveBreakout24:45
Davis Mattek identifies Rome Odunze as his favorite Chicago pass-catcher to play this week, noting he should have more one-on-one deep ball opportunities against Brian Flores' blitz-heavy defense. Mattek attributes Odunze's poor usage last week to injury.
Insight pageTreVeyon Henderson
PositiveProjection61:59
Davis Mattek is optimistic about Trevion Henderson's rest-of-season outlook and plans to start him in managed leagues, hoping for a workload of around 15 touches, including a mix of carries and targets.
Insight pageXavier Hutchinson
NegativeUsage52:25
Davis Mattek projects Xavier Hutchinson to play nearly every route due to receiver injuries, but expects a low-efficiency outcome of roughly six targets for only 17 yards.
Insight pageZay Flowers
NegativeBreakout11:51
Davis Mattek describes Zay Flowers as looking 'unstoppable' and potentially one of the best players in the league this year, specifically praising a touchdown play where he lined up in the backfield and ran a halfback choice route. Despite this high praise, Mattek expresses concern that Flowers may not play in the upcoming game due to injury.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Ashen Genty and Matthew Golden did indeed smash for the boys last weekend.
0:05Caleb Williams with a phenomenal game who we played in our Millionaire Maker lineup. Sadly, it was not Luther Burton who scored three touchdowns. It was
0:14DeAndre Swift followed with Kyle Manungai getting a touchdown and the bonus. Uh we had a great fun week watching football, but we are now on to
0:23thinking about daily fantasy sports for week two. Jacob beginning frankly with a game that I was ready to just entirely skip over. But Carolina Atlanta actually
0:34relatively interesting here. We have a 42 and a half point total. Atlanta is a 2 and 1/2 point home favorite. We do not
0:41know as of recording this program who is going to be starting at quarterback. We have heard three different >> We know they won't be good.
0:47>> We know they won't be good. Well, unless it's Jack Strand. I mean, at least maybe you can maybe you can you can wish
0:53>> on Jack Strand. Um, >> I I'm like I'm negatively polarized against Jack Strand because I I do Dynasty Points twice a week with my
1:02buddy Tom and and he's been like the the president of the Jack Strand fan club all preseason and forcing us to do Jack
1:09Strand segments on the show and I I can't take it. Like I I simply cannot.
1:14So I I I I have nothing against Jack Strand but I hope this guy stinks to be honest.
1:21>> Yeah. I mean, look, I actually I don't hope he stinks because if you have Atlanta Falcons bags in fantasy football, if you have Drake London, if
1:29you have Kyle Pittz, if you have Zachariah Branch, who I do uh have a fair amount of bags of, you would you
1:36would like for him to be to be good.
1:39>> Um >> I'm hopeful we get Pennix back in a week or two. Just come on.
1:44>> Uh I that's their only hope at this point is getting Michael Penn. I mean, he's the only quarterback who wants to throw
1:51outside the numbers at all on this team.
1:54All that being said, >> Bejian Robinson didn't seem to matter to him. Uh that that sign does not bother him because he can't read. Led the team
2:01in targets, led the team in fantasy points. Obviously is going to get all of the meaningful work and has a matchup
2:08that procured what was it like 311 rushing yards or something last week.
2:12Like an insane insane amount of of fantasy points allowed to the Bears backfield. Um, I'm assuming Bejian's going to come in as the most owned
2:22running back this week. I think he'll be significantly more owned than like McCaffrey, uh, and and these guys. And he's 8,200. I I mean, I think we are we
2:30are heading back to team Jaman, the old Levian Bell, David Johnson. I I think that is going to be Bjon and Gibbs this
2:38year. I think there's there's almost not a price they could get to where you wouldn't want to play them.
2:43>> I mean, I think that that will be true for the majority of the year. I'm open-minded to not playing Bejon in uh
2:51in this spot. Like assuming that it is Jack Strand or Cooper Rush at quarterback. Like I I mean I know that
2:58that he just like you said it didn't matter at all in week one. He was just amazing. But you know we know that
3:04there's a range of outcomes to these things. There's there's the world where okay this superstar is the only functional portion of an offense. So he
3:11gets all the touches and he kind of wills his way to 28 points. But we know there are other ways that it can go. We,
3:17you know, just look at, for instance, Devon Chan in week one where like he was clearly the central point of the
3:23offense, but they just didn't run a lot of plays. They ran like 50 in total and Malik Willis um had 11 of them that were
3:30sacks or runs. And so he ends up scoring like 10 points. Like that's to me more in the cards for Bejon than it is for
3:37most of the other elite running backs because Atlanta looked so completely nonfunctional last week. So yeah, I I probably will be on the underside of
3:46Bejon at mass of ownership this week. Um even though I I totally get like yeah, he's going to he's going to project very
3:53high at median, but there's just there's ways that they could score like three points in this game.
3:57>> And there just are so many good running back plays. I mean, this is basically football in 2026, which is you open up a
4:02given slate. I mean, this could this goes for like reddraft, too, but like you look at your team and you're like,
4:07"Yeah, man. I got like four running backs I'm happy to start." And like in DFS you're like I mean there's just a
4:11bazillion guys that I would like to play here. I think a more interesting conversation is on the other side where if we thinking that the Panthers can
4:20just >> basically like be fine on offense competent $5,800 Chuba Hubard >> Jonathan Brooks was was basically >> a scapback last week. Now I do I would
4:32guess the plan for the Panthers and this is more or less confirmed by them is they're just going to work Jonathan
4:37Brooks in. They're just going to like see what he can handle. They're going to see how his knees respond. I I don't
4:42think the plan would be to give Chuba Hubard 23 touches every game for the rest of the season. But he did get all
4:48the highv value touches last week, all the green zone touches. They they worked Brooks in. He played 12 snaps. He was
4:54really only involved as a passcatching running back. Not even really asked to pass block. $5,800 Hubard against the Falcons who um seemed quite bad at uh at
5:05playing at playing defense. Although I mean there wasn't really much of anything for Warren or Dowel to have because the Steelers just kept throwing
5:12the ball in in that game. I'm I think I am in on $5,800 Chuba Hubard.
5:18>> I think that I am as well. Um I I do expect to see a little bit more Brooks this week. I I'm guessing like my view
5:27is that Brooks can basically get this to a 6040 or 5545 kind of independent of Chuba. Like I think that's just what
5:33they would like to happen is that this guy that they invested a lot of time into, invested a lot of draft capital
5:38into >> is a big part of their offense this year. I think they want that to be the case. I thought Brooks looked really
5:44good in his limited opportunities. I would suspect he just sees like slightly more opportunities kind of no matter what Chubo does until it gets to around
5:52a 6040. And then from there for Brooks to actually flip Chuba and become the lead guy. Now it becomes dependent on
5:59Chuba to kind of lose the job which he's going to need to play a lot worse than he did in week one. He looked totally
6:04acceptable. So I think for the immediate term I think Chuba 5800 is a totally fine play. I I would probably project
6:12him like slightly lower touch share than he got last week. I I do wonder if >> like where Brooks actually did have a
6:20really high rate of touches per snap.
6:22I'm like I suspect that a lot of the Chuba stuff is is a little bit like the Raandre Trevian stuff where it's a mix
6:29of we like this guy but also we just trust this guy to play all of the empty calorie snaps. Like if Carolina beats
6:35the brakes off of Atlanta, I wonder if if in the fourth quarter does the snaps really tilt in favor of Brooks where they kind of use it as like
6:45a preseason game and a chance to ramp him up more and more. I I'm curious about that. So, slight risk factors I
6:50think on Chuba's touch share, but overall pretty strong play. I uh I'm curious what you think of the the Carolina receivers. Like, do you think
6:58that Carolina now is just a more like exciting offense or was it just a function of they got stuck in a track
7:06meet they didn't want to be in with the Chicago Bears? They were forced to play a fun style and they're going to go back
7:12to being the boring runheavy grinded out Panthers now in a game where they probably have the opportunity to play the game how they want to play the game.
7:21>> I think that is exactly what will what will happen. I think the Panthers have shown this that I mean they played a
7:28couple exciting games last year like there was uh what Bryce had like a 350 yard four touchdown g was that against
7:33the Saints um last year I want to say like there's been a couple of these random spikes and then you go look at
7:41the Bryce Young game logs and you're like 180 passing yards, 117 passing yards, 204 passing yards. They there there is no indication that this team
7:50has any plans to be a positive Pier team. And you know, I mean, you are you are the representative on this program
7:57of the cokeheads. I I mean, I feel like the Jaylen Coker thing completely missed me. I I like I I I had there were there
8:05were so there were so there were a legion of Jaylen Coker people and he >> imagine clicking Romeo Dobs out of
8:11Jaylen Coker all off seasonason in basketball. Couldn't be a good feeling right now.
8:15>> Uh I I think sadly where Coker was going I was just drafting Stefan Diggs ahead of average draft position.
8:21>> Well, that that should be fine. But uh yeah, I I was drafting a crap ton of the Coker. That feels good. I I wish that I
8:28believed a little bit more in myself, though, because to me, I was like, "Oh, in best I'm going to map I'm going to
8:33like jam in Coker." But as soon as we got to reddraft season, I was like, "Well, he's no longer in my plans." And
8:38I'm like, "Maybe I should have been pushing to get him on more of our like FFPC teams and stuff because I I felt
8:44like my my belief in him as a play like really really dropped off in in reddraft formats. But yeah, I'm excited about
8:51him. I I guess are the Panthers capable of introspection is my question because I've always felt and you know this you
8:58you watch college football like Bryce Young is at his best kind of doing like empty >> empty formation >> scramble around just kind of play
9:09backyard football find guys like that's that's what you get the most out of Bryce Young >> and I felt like under this staff they
9:17have kind of handcuffed him a lot where they're they're afraid of him screwing up the game and they play him a lot
9:24under center and they play him in some of these heavier multiple tight end formations and it's a lot of run the
9:29ball and they're kind of asking Bryce Young to to like be Alex Smith and it's like that's just not who he is. That's
9:37not where he's at his best. And I wonder if maybe they look at the playoff game against the Rams building into this game
9:43that he just had and they're like no like I think we actually need to let him fly a little bit. I don't know. I'm
9:49doubtful, but I I'm just hopeful because that's that's the best Bryce Young has looked now, two straight games, and both of them have been in games where kind of
9:56because the other team has just kept scoring every drive, they've had to let him really play a little bit more on the
10:03fly. And I think that's where you get the best out of him. So, I I hope for McMillan and Coker's sake that that's
10:07what they want to do, but I'm also a little bit dubious.
10:11Um, I'm very dubious because it would just be such a departure from what every NFL coach that Bryce Young has had. It
10:19would be a departure from the way they built their roster. I I would guess like you're going to see like 27 pass
10:25attempts probably from him in this game.
10:28And you are going to run into like Coker is going to be owned. Like this is not like playing Jaylen Coker last week.
10:35this is going to be like conservative even if he doesn't and his projection will be a little bit better than this
10:40because this is just our baseline run but he's not he's not going to project like great like he's he'll project fine
10:46but most projection stuff is going to have the Panthers pretty runheavy which is going to mean that Coker and Ted McMill I mean if you want to talk about
10:54it kind of an alltime 4% owned like really good player type spot like leverage spot Teroy McMillan you you I don't I don't even think I'll
11:04have the ability to do it. Like I like I I don't think I will actually click him.
11:08I actually think there's a similar wide receiver play that I like much more in terms of buying a dip. So yeah, I I I
11:17think frankly this game is probably just not going to be great for fantasy. So we can move on to a game that should be
11:22more fun for fantasy. The New Orleans Saints are traveling to play against the Baltimore Ravens. 45 and a half points team total. Seven and a half favorites
11:31for the Baltimore Ravens. I would guess Zay Flowers is not gonna play in this game. Uh if you made me guess right now,
11:37Jacobe Lane is on the injured reserve.
11:39Sounds like Devontes Walker will be able to play in this game after missing last week, which might mean that Elijah Serat
11:47at whatever he is like almost got to be almost miss.
11:49>> I don't even I think he's still going to be wide receiver four cuz it's going to be it's going to be uh uh Tez Walker and
11:56Baitman on the outside and I think my guy Leonte Wester will be playing in the slot. That's what that's what my YouTube
12:03comments were saying. And I just like I do wonder if this is your classic uh I mean we see this happen all the time
12:08with running backs where the guy who's a healthy scratch gets elevated to a role.
12:12I I do wonder if it's one of those situations cuz Wester >> that's totally possible.
12:16>> Wester's a great kick returner and punt returner which is why he is is always active.
12:21>> He's just so good though. People don't understand this guy can play. Like I I'm >> I don't know. I I obviously I'm more
12:27invested in Sirat, but um I I'm like totally part of the Wester hive. I I just remember watching all the Colorado
12:34games last year cuz we were scouting um like Shadur and um uh Travis Hunter and like there were so many times watching
12:43Colorado games and just being like, "Wait, who's this guy? This guy fucks."
12:46And it was always Lejante Webster. I love this guy. I hope he gets a real shot. But um yeah, I I I don't know. I'm
12:53probably not playing like who would you play out of Baltimore receivers if Flowers is gone if you had to pick.
12:58>> I would I would play none of them and I would play an overpriced Mark Andrews where I just don't think the field will
13:04get there.
13:05>> Um although he he I mean he had one mega horrible drop which just like feels like his brand at this point. But I don't I
13:12don't think he will get I don't think he will get owned and I think you could probably pencil him in for six and a
13:17halfish targets. I also think Lamar will not end up being that owned just because that's just kind of the way the field is
13:24drifting. Like they're just our cheaper quarterbacks that can approximate his median projection. I my one of my biggest takeaways that I haven't really
13:31talked about on any show last week was it just looks like Declan Doyle is like a baller. It just it Yeah, it it just
13:38looks like he came in and was like, "Oh my god, this guy Lamar is crazy." There was there was a great video of Lamar and
13:45Doyle talking after the game and he was talking to Lamar and he just says, "Man, it is fun to call plays for you." And
13:50I'm like, imagine if any of Lamar's previous coaches in Baltimore had taken that same joy and enthusiasm to their job, whereas it seemed most of his
13:58coaches in Baltimore have been like, >> can you just do a sevenstep drop and throw it to the sticks? Like it it felt
14:04like Lam like Lamar has never been appreciated by his coaches in Baltimore.
14:10>> Yeah. I Declan Doyle, man.
14:13Look, I didn't I wouldn't say I enjoyed Baltimore's first game of the season.
14:17Um, in fact, it was very much the opposite experience for me, but I I certainly could acknowledge that it was an unbelievably
14:26impressive performance. I mean, we we provided plenty of help by playing terrible defense, but uh I uh I definitely thought Lamar looked 1,000%
14:37back to full Lamar. The Declan Doyle stuff was just sick. I mean, that that Z Flowers touchdown where he lined up in
14:43the back field and ran a halfback choice route was so unbelievably sick. I hope Flowers plays in this game or at least
14:50comes back very soon cuz he looked unstoppable in that game. I mean, he looks like he's going to be one of the
14:55best players in the league this year.
14:56So, yeah, I I think I'm with you. If uh if Zay does not play, I'll be probably looking at naked Lamar or Lamar plus
15:04Andrews predominantly. I'm not really getting into the the receivers. One thing I will say Baitman not doing >> Yeah, I'm not either. But if someone did
15:13want to fall for Rashad Baitman, the one thing I'll say in his defense is like um S does not really travel into the slot
15:21much. So S was mostly covering Baitman all game and then uh Flowers and like Wester and whoever else got to run
15:29routes against uh Justin Wall-E in his first NFL game. So, I I wouldn't punish Baitman too hard for like obviously if you're a
15:39reasonable offensive coordinator and you're like, "Well, our our very mediocre receiver is going against Sauce and our star receiver is going against a
15:48crappy slot corner." Like, it's pretty obvious who we're going to target over and over again. And they basically just let Baitman and Sauce hang out there and
15:55and play 10 on 10 otherwise. So, I don't think he can't he's like completely off the board, but um yeah, it wasn't an
16:02encouraging start.
16:04>> Yeah. Yeah, I completely agree on Well, I mean, I guess we should talk about the big dog. I mean, probably another great
16:10spot for him to score two touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints. Uh, you know, I I have no I have no real opinion
16:17on the big dog. His role did not change.
16:19He is exactly who he thinks he is. His week in daily fantasy will be very good if he adds that second touchdown. If he
16:25does not add the second touchdown, then he will not be great, particularly on DraftKings. Full PPR a little bit better on FanDuel. I mean, do do we want to
16:35talk about about Mr. Vele? I I think people are a little over their skis based on conversations again reading the YouTube chat and like FIFC bids.
16:44>> Oh man, the FPC bids were wild.
16:47>> They they ran 90 plays last week. Here, here's a comparison if you guys want to remember one. Um, Caleb Williams' rookie
16:54year, Roma Dunay's rookie year, there was a game against the Rams that the Chicago Bears ran 90 plays on offense.
17:00And that game has basically been responsible for the myth of Roma Dun to this point. I I think he had like he had
17:06like eight for 130 and a touchdown or something like that in that game. It It's hard to overstate how many plays 90
17:12plays is. It's so so so many plays.
17:16>> I mean, Seattle on Wednesday night ran 48. So, the Saints basically played two of of Seattle's games, right? So, when
17:25you think about that on a on a market share basis, like seven targets or nine targets feels like a lot, but then it's
17:33like Tyler Shock, I think, attempted like 56 or 57 passes in this game. And so, you know, in a more normal game,
17:40those seven and nine target games are are four and five target games. I can I mean this is a spot where like uh that
17:47felt like the game we were tilting most on the shipcast uh during the day and I think it's it was actually effective for
17:56like having a more calibrated impression of the game because for the most part the game sucked like it sucked ass the
18:02same sucked in that game and you know Jawan had like zero points until 3 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Um
18:11Ave wasn't even having a very good game.
18:14was was doing nothing. Yeah.
18:16>> Yeah. And so then it's like I don't know. It it it went into full carnival mode there towards the back end of the
18:22fourth quarter in overtime. But um I I would I would be wary of viewing the Saints as like a highpowered offense
18:29coming off of that game. I mean for the most part Shock looked like the worst quarterback ever.
18:34>> I was going to say people were ready for Rattler at at halftime.
18:37like it like so I I just I'm not going >> right around when Shock threw to an offensive lineman and was called for
18:43intentional grounding.
18:44>> Yeah, I I'm not I'm not going I probably will play no Saints. I would guess if I played any of them, it would likely be a
18:51L just because I think 7200 probably gets him out of a range where he like projects like real real chalk and I I'm
18:59not scared of Devon Blay snatching uh targets from him. All right, the Minnesota Vikings traveling to play the Chicago Bears. We have an unexpected,
19:09well, relatively unexpected um IR placement here. Jordan Mason placed on the IR, which means Aaron Jones is going to be the lead back for the Minnesota
19:19Vikings. He is priced at $5,100 on DraftKings. No Minnesota Vikings receiver other than Justin Jefferson had a reception last week. Uh Luther Burden
19:29led the group in actually sorry Khif Raymond led the Chicago Bears in uh targets last week. Two targets for what? Two targets for Loveland. I don't
19:40remember seeing Roma Dun on the field.
19:42Maybe maybe >> Adun had two targets, two catches. He had the one really cool catch on the sideline for like >> That's right. Okay. He did basically the
19:48only play he made, but yeah, he had that big one.
19:50>> And then Burton got his routes were limited due to injury and he's been practicing. He's he's not on the injury
19:55report. So, I wouldn't I wouldn't read too much into week one for Doomsday.
19:59>> So, sadly, I would love to I would love to say, "Wow, dude, what a spot for Caleb Williams. Like, they're such a
20:07bount like Ben Johnson's going to make sure to get Rome and Luther their numbers. Like, he's for sure scheming up a touchdown for Lovelin. Like, he wants
20:15to score so many points." Look, I love Caleb Williams. It's I've clearly been on the for the cutting edge of Caleb
20:21Williams propaganda. Can't really think of a worse spot for him than going up against Brian Flores. Man, he gets he Caleb is a someone did a tier list of
20:31quarterbacks like based on like a combination of their processing and their tools. And I do think Caleb is like a mid-processor elite elite tools.
20:38And man, Brian F, he we might have some Caleb William spots here against >> Brian. I don't mind it. I mean, the
20:47Flores stuff is like he's obviously a very good defensive coordinator, but I I don't think that he is a death blow to
20:56fantasy environments because >> it's totally >> a lot of the stuff he does is >> Yeah, but like even when he's cooking,
21:03like a lot of the stuff he does can be kind of beneficial because the defense is so high variance, right? We saw this
21:09with Green Bay like they forced a bunch of turnovers, they got a bunch of sacks, they also give up an 81 yard touchdown
21:13on like the fourth play from scrimmage.
21:15Um, so I mean they can do things like they can get a sack fumble on your own which sets up to score or they can
21:27just leave someone completely uncovered because they're like rushing eight and Williams gets it off and it's a 70 yard touchdown. Like a lot of what they do
21:35speeds up the game. So, I don't really mind playing guys against Flores defense. Um, because even if like the EPA of their defense is positive, they
21:44they do allow points and they do allow big plays. So, I I mean, I hate to say this, my favorite of the of the Chicago guys
21:54to play this week, uh, of their pass catchers, it's probably Roma Dunce, which I I I despise saying. Yeah, I've seen that on your face. That's how I
22:04feel as well. But, um, I'm a little worried that Coulson Lovelin's going to be held into block, um, more than you'd
22:11like because Brian Flores just brings so many guys that I think it's tough to get, um, high tight end route participation rates against Brian Flores
22:19defenses. And then like I've always thought and I I I guess I'm I'm putting a lot of assumption that I'm correct
22:28here, but I'm I'm I'm assuming that I'm right and then I'm assuming that Ben Johnson will agree with me, which is
22:33that a lot of people have the idea of, okay, you're playing this blitz heavy defense. Like the way you do that is you
22:38just have to get the ball out fast to get the ball out short. I've always thought it's the opposite. Like to me,
22:42it's you bring in an extra tight end, you block it up, and you're going to get these really nice one-on-one matchups
22:49down the field. So, like part of why I'm not reading too much into Christian Watson coming off of last week is that I
22:56think he was kind of the beneficiary a lot of these like corners on islands in terrible spots against this blitzappy defense. I think Rome is is going to
23:05potentially have more chances at like one-on-one deep balls this week than he'll have for most of the rest of the season. So, I think against Flores cuz
23:15he's kind of like we always talk about how defenses don't ever give that up anymore and how they push everything into the middle of the field these days.
23:21That's why you don't want to play the the traditional bruising X receivers.
23:25Like Flores is the only guy who didn't get the memo. He's the guy who still is is is trying to constantly disrupt
23:31success rate and is willing to give up big plays. So, I I like Rome's matchup this week and I think that he he didn't
23:38his usage last week was bad, but I think it was injury based. Um I'm kind of open-minded to playing him this week.
23:44>> I mean, I'm open-minded to like basically every single week doing Chicago Bears doubles. Like I I like Lovelin Burden like any any combination
23:53of the two. I'm not buying the Khif Raymond stuff at all. No, >> that just like I I mean like look if if
23:58it if two if it happens again this week where all the screens and stuff are going to him then sure I will um I will
24:06I will change my I will change my tune but that just kind of feels like an alltime Ben Johnsoning. The the issue
24:12that I realize I'm going to have with Burden this season is that there are so many people who are exactly like me that
24:18there will never be a slate where Luther Burden will be 8% owned. I I flipped over the cards last week. Yeah. In the
24:24double spy, which is the $200 single entry, Luther Burton was 17% owned.
24:29>> So, it's like you're you're just there's no discount. So, you you kind of like that is a play that will sim very
24:35poorly. Um on the other side of the game, Justin Jefferson 7,800. It's probably going to be Wentz, not Kyler starting this game. I think Justin
24:44Jefferson's just fully back. Like, just fully back.
24:47>> I I mean, how own will he get? Because there's such a narrative around he's way better with Wentz. It's also a correct
24:52narrative. Um, but I don't really care.
24:54I kind of want to play him regardless.
24:57>> Uh, yeah. I I mean, I think that's just one thing we've learned about about DFS is that uh, you know, dude, like guys
25:04who project really well and are in good spots, you should play them. The the Bears defense is as bad as it gets.
25:09Like, it's going to be like this all season. It's going to be like this all season. The Bears remind me so much of
25:16of the days of my youth where Peyton Manning was just leading these supercharged offenses and our defense couldn't stop anything. And it just
25:25looks like a classic like 2006 Colts number one ranked offense, 32 ranked defense. Every game is 4138. Like it's going to be the Bears are so fun. I love
25:35the Bears. I love every Bears game.
25:38>> Yes. And uh I mean Aaron Jones, do you do you want to provide dissenting opinion like oh get ready to learn D
25:44buddy? Yeah. Or >> No, he's gonna play a lot. I just think that they this team historically does not funnel a lot of like value towards
25:52running backs. Like the the fun stuff in this offense is the passing game. I don't think Aaron Jones has a lot of
25:58juice left in the tank. So um I I suspect he's like a very fun cash play at 5100. I I don't I don't know what the
26:06ceiling is exactly on Aaron Jones.
26:08Unless he just gets two or three touchdowns.
26:10>> 16 point 16.2 points is kind of what you're hoping for from Aaron Jones.
26:14>> Like like I have a hard time seeing Aaron Jones get more than like 80 yards, you know? So it's like is he going to
26:20score twice? Maybe. But I don't know. I I I don't really want to play a super oldwashed Aaron Jones if he's going to
26:29be owned.
26:31>> Um yeah. No, I I mean he is going to be very owned. Like he >> Yeah, >> he'll be he'll be probably the most
26:39unless there is something else unexpected that happens at running back.
26:42I suspect he will be amongst the three most owned running backs of the slate and I expect him to to be a pretty good
26:49play at at those ownerships.
26:52>> What's the state of Claybourne Nation? I consider you >> Clayborn Clayborn Nation is feeling pretty excited because DJ Dallas was
27:00already up as a special teamer last week and Claybourne will now I frankly I think there's a >> Are you ready to learn Jerome Ford?
27:08>> Yeah, I look it could it could happen. I think pretty clearly they don't think Claybourne is ready because if they did
27:14think he was ready they would have just had him up last week instead of DJ Dallas who's like a total nothing NFL
27:20player. But I think there is a chance that they say, "Hey, look, this is an unexpected opportunity. Let's just see what this guy has as an early down
27:29rusher. Let's give him some of the cuz you can't you cannot give Aaron Jones 20 touches in a game." Like he just
27:37straight up it would be it would just is a bad idea. Now maybe you just give DJ Dallas a couple touches as we saw Amir.
27:43>> That seems that seems like a bad idea.
27:45>> It's well trust me as someone who's very familiar with DJ Dallas's work um it it is. that game that he was like the
27:52starting running back. Everyone played him like six years ago or whatever >> for for the Seahawks. I I frankly I do
27:58remember because I actually structured my entire lineup around because it was a late game cuz he played for the Seahawks. So I actually played him in
28:05the double spy like without a swap and I remember thinking like I'm such a genius and he got like six points.
28:12>> I thought I think I I feel like I can recall him having a game where he was really highly owned. He played like
28:18total [ __ ] but I think he like caught a touchdown at the end or something. I don't know. It my This is like my entire
28:24brain is just thinking about spot starts of the worst running backs in the NFL.
28:27>> Correct.
28:28>> Yeah.
28:29>> Yeah. I'm >> think I think there is uh I think there's a good chance that Deont Claybourne gets four rushes for nine
28:35yards in this game.
28:37>> Pretty good. Pretty good chance.
28:40>> And then And then we'll see.
28:42>> Here it is. I found it. This must be the game I was thinking of. 18 carries for 41 yards, five catches for 17 yards, but
28:49he had two touchdowns.
28:50>> Yes. And who was it against? I want to say Arizona. San Fran. Okay.
28:55>> Um Okay. Well, let's uh Yeah. I mean, good good game here. So, here uh the Cincinnati Bengals against the Houston
29:03Texans. Here is my flag plant of the week playing him. Even if the computer says it's bad, I will be playing Jamar
29:11Chase at whatever single digit 8% ownership against Derek Stingley and the Houston Texans. I just I cannot I I obviously if he ends up being 12% or
29:22whatever, I will I will relent from this. But like my first idea in this my first idea in this entire slate was no
29:30one is playing Jamar Chase against the Houston Texans. Like people are just way too afraid of the of the Texans defense.
29:36Joe Burrow has this back twinge. I I'm I'm very very hip to Jabar Chase.
29:41>> Why is Why is Burrow lowering his shoulder on the sideline in the first game of the year? Like don't what what
29:49was he doing?
29:50>> This is kind of Joe Burrow's whole deal.
29:52>> I I just like it was incomprehensible when I saw it in real time and like now learning that he actually injured himself on that play is
30:00just so aggravating. Like that that was like an Anthony Richardson level move.
30:07Just don't do that. Like you're a quarterback. You're one of the best five quarterbacks in the league. Stop it.
30:12Crazy. Um yeah, I like Jason.
30:14>> You know who would never You know who would never do that? Mahomes would never do that.
30:18>> No. Patrick Mahomes would like would like pretend like he's going out of bounds, trick the defender from stopping because he knows that Mahomes gets all
30:25the calls and then correct go down for under 10 yards.
30:28>> Uh yeah, I'm totally fine playing Burrow and Chase. I mean, Houston's defense, I get the Bills are a great offense, but
30:34so so are the Bengals. Um, they didn't look that imposing in week one. I'm sure they'll have better days ahead. Assuming
30:41Nico Collins misses this game, which I am sadly assuming, uh, sounded like we got good news that it's not overly serious. Sounds like a grade one strain.
30:48He'll probably still miss a week or two.
30:51But how, uh, how aggressively owned is Dalton Schultz going to be?
30:56>> Super aggressively. Yeah, super. because the people who drive ownership are predisposed to like Daltton Schultz. And frankly, >> we we also have enough evidence that
31:06like they are not going to play any of their target earning receivers. I mean, >> no, they're going to play Xavier
31:12Hutchinson for 97% of the routes.
31:16>> And I was even thinking, I was like, well, really in my mind, the only target earning receiver left is null because uh
31:23because Higgins is not available and Dell are not available. So, like theoretically, like two like a month ago, this could have been this could
31:32have been um a fun a fun spot, but it's like I don't I can't even in good conscience say like, "Oh, like I'm
31:40really excited to play Jaylen Null at 3700." Like, I'm really not.
31:45>> No, I'm not. Um you can't you can't hope for good things at the Texans. I expect Xavier Hutchinson's going to play
31:50literally every route and he's going to earn like six targets and he's going to catch two of them for like 17 yards.
32:00>> Yep.
32:01>> And then Null's going to play slot only probably. He's only going to run like 40% of the routes >> because they they play a zillion tight
32:07ends on this team. Jared Jared Wayne is >> like Booty is going to play I think the majority of the remaining routes, but he
32:16he probably will still not get full participation week two. He's also not that good of a target earner. And then yeah, you mentioned you mentioned Jared
32:23Wayne. I expect him to be involved at some point. So yeah, I think Schultz is is obviously a really great play.
32:30>> Jared Jared Wayne is the man who murdered uh Tankell. People forget >> really.
32:38>> He was the wide >> on the team for that long.
32:40>> He was the wide receiver who collided with Tank Brown in the end zone in the playoff game.
32:46>> Yeah.
32:46>> Oh, interesting. Huh.
32:48>> I had no idea he's even been on the team. Yeah, he's been on the team since 2023.
32:52>> Um Oh, I didn't know this. So, he's he um he's from Peter Burough, Ontario.
32:58Shout out Canada.
32:59>> Wow. and he was actually a second round draft pick in the CFL because um this kind of happens with a lot of players
33:06where CFL teams like the draft is only for Canadians for the CFL.
33:09>> There's rules about having >> you have to have a certain number of Canadians on the field. Correct. Um and so the draft is is for Canadians but
33:17then like CFL teams always kind of have to guess like sometimes a Canadian gets too good and we're like this guy might
33:23be in the NFL so you wasting your draft pick, right? Right? Like I don't think anyone drafted Chase Brown for instance
33:28cuz it's like like this guy's actually too good for the CFL. So they'll some team will put him on the negotiation
33:33list. But I guess the CFL decided like no shot Jared Wayne is going to stick in the National Football League. We could
33:38safely draft him. They were wrong. The Houston Texans will keep 473 running receivers on their roster for four years.
33:46>> Yeah. Uh I mean I guess we should talk a little bit about $6,500 David Montgomery. I would guess he actually
33:52will get played a little bit this week.
33:54the role was quite good in terms of the touches he got.
33:58>> He is in like legitimately a 5050 and I frankly I don't think he will score three touchdowns every week.
34:04>> He's in a 50-50 for snaps. He's not in a 50/50 for touches. He's 70% of the touches.
34:10>> He's in a 50/50 the way Derrick Henry's in a 5050 with Justice Hill.
34:13>> Yeah.
34:14>> Yeah.
34:15>> Correct.
34:15>> I'm I'm not super into um him this week.
34:18I Chase Brown, I guess. Whatever the role, the role is pretty good for Chase Brown, but it is the Houston Texans. We
34:24saw what happened to James Cook last week. It's it's uh not a not a great spot. The Pittsburgh Steelers led the
34:30National Football League and Proe last week. Drake May down to 6,100 DraftKings dollars. Trevon Henderson will play this week. So, if you were uh hoping to rare
34:40up 80% of the touches from Andre Stevenson, I have bad news. And uh I I gotta say, Jacob, I I think I'm coming
34:47over to your side, Mr. Decalin Metaf is is a legitimate play this week at 5200.
34:54Roger uh he he uh led the National Football League and percentage of his routes that were slants last week. And >> when Rogers says something like this, I
35:04always really pay attention because he's the rare type of quarterback who says it and means it. But he was like, "We are
35:09going to feed DK Metaf." which the reason why Rogers is doing that is cuz he just is arrogant enough to think,
35:16well, yeah, like I'll win doing this.
35:18Like, I'm so good at this. We will we will win doing this. So, I I'm I'm actually in on Metaf as a play this
35:24week.
35:25>> I wish he wasn't playing against Christian Gonzalez. Um that stresses me out a little bit, but I in theory metaf
35:32is like the perfect Leone by low model play. The only problem with Leone Bow model plays now is that everyone >> knows everyone knows them.
35:41>> Everyone knows.
35:42>> We don't we don't get to keep any secrets from each other these days. So I like it's it it could be sometimes it's
35:48the case actually that the the guy who did nothing but did nothing on great usage actually winds up more played the
35:56next week than the guy who was just awesome because there's like so much buzz about look other people don't realize that DK Mechaf had 220 airs this
36:05week and it's like actually by the time we get to Sunday literally every single person will realize that DK Mechaf had a
36:10lot of unconverted air yards and then they'll they'll want to jam him in because they I think they're getting him at some advantage. Anyways, it's tilting
36:18to me, but I uh yeah, I I think Vetaf uh is a very solid play. I'm I'm I am worried about the Christian Gonzalez
36:27stuff solely because like JSN almost never saw Gonzalez because the Seahawks are so creative in how they move him around the formation. I don't know that
36:36Mike McCarthy has that level of creativity. I feel like I feel like Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rogers are more of just a line them up and see where the
36:43chips fall type of operation.
36:44>> Oh, 100%. They are they are do they're the do your job team there. Hey.
36:49>> Yeah, >> do your job. That's why, by the way, big reason why Pat Footh is one of my most drafted players overall. Who is most
36:57likely in that whole skill position room to not take offense to someone just saying go line up and do your job?
37:03>> It's Pat Frymouth. Pat Fryouth is a do your job guy. Footh looks like a massive win. Good for you. That's a big He's
37:10He's a good play this week. He's a good play every week.
37:12>> Good good play. Good play this week for sure.
37:14>> You won like 82% of the routes. He was just >> out there on the field constantly.
37:19>> I would like to say I also think I'm I think I'm brave enough to play Trevian Henderson a smidge. I I think I am.
37:27>> Maybe I'm not. Maybe maybe this is something that I think on Thursday. I just like >> I don't even think I'm brave enough to
37:32play him in managed leagues.
37:35>> Oh, I'll be starting him in managed. I think >> like I mean I I'll start them on some the teams because like I I'm sure I have
37:41at least a couple teams where the the alternative would be like starting Rashad White or something or Chris Rodriguez.
37:48>> Um >> but I I don't know. I'm I'm hopeful. I I'm very hopeful for the rest of season outlook for Trevian Henderson. I don't
37:57know that he will see substantially more touches this week than like what Cory Ker and Lan Larrison did. I think there'll be some level of ramp up, but I
38:05I'd love to be wrong. I'd be if we got 15 touches from Trevia Henderson this week, I'm pumped. Pumped.
38:12>> Yes. Yeah. No, I'm I'm Well, I what I want from Trevon Henderson is I want six rushes, but I also want five targets.
38:22Like I ideally I want to see evidence that they are viewing him as a an alternative to explosion without AJ Brown in the lineup. I I want to see I
38:32want to see cognition from them that they are clearly missing something on offense and that Trevion Henderson has the ability to add it in a way that
38:40Romeo Dubs, Kyle Williams, Deario Douglas, and Matt Collins and Eli Raren can cannot. If if that is missing, I I'm going to lower my seasonal expectations
38:52for the Patriots. I'm going to lower I frankly I'm just going to change my opinion of kind of everyone's decision- making um because it's so clear that
39:00they don't have that. All right, the Green Bay Packers against the uh the New York Jets.
39:06Potentially awesome game here if the Packers can get a lead. I have very very bad news if something fluky goes the
39:15Jets way. I mean, we were doing we were doing the shipcast on Sunday afternoon.
39:19>> Jacob, they had they had a 15minute field goal drive, dude. A 15minute field goal drive.
39:25>> 19 plays 19 plays. That drive included 14 runs.
39:29It included nine consecutive runs. Um I mean it was it was one where like a lot of people writing about the split and
39:37carries between Hall and Allen. And I was writing about I'm like look I mean if you're going to if you're going to
39:43run the ball 14 times in one drive in like 95 degree heat. Like you have to split the carries. You you'd kill a man
39:52just giving him 14 carries in a row in a 10-minute span. Like what it it was.
39:57Wild. So, yeah, the the Jets the Jets looked competent, but they looked like a team that we absolutely need trailing to be any fun. Otherwise,
40:07they will suck the life out of the game.
40:10>> They they they they ruined like any game the Jets win, frankly, is going to be a game that Garrett Wilson
40:17has like five for 61 and you're lucky to get it, right? a game a game they're trailing. Adnai Mitchell could have six
40:24for 82 and one in a in a game that they are potentially trailing. It I would say it's a bad spot to try and run back the
40:32Marshon Lloyd thing again because again the time of possession just might not be there for them. Now the the Packers could also or they're just a much better
40:39team. So they could win by 10 points or whatever and Marshon Lloyd could run downhill and and be just fine. I I mean
40:47the the play the the only play I like really like from this game is Golden at 4700. Although I I think he will be
40:54quite chalky.
40:54>> It's it's actually so tilting that like I played 100% Golden this last week. The role was everything I dreamed of, but he
41:02like didn't fully get there. He had like 15.5 points. He was five yards short of the bonus and didn't score a touchdown.
41:08Yeah.
41:08>> So it's like he was fine, but he didn't blow up. But now because everyone is so underlying usage pilled, it's like I I I
41:17have to suffer the consequences as though Golden scored 30, right? He's going to be owned as though he had 71 120 and two. Um, and so I don't even get
41:28to like have him at the low ownership that we got him at last week, but then I also didn't get the 30 points in my
41:34lineup that it feels like I deserved. So it's just it just pisses me off. there's nothing I can do about it, but I'm just
41:39airing a grievance with with uh the DFS market getting sharper and Matthew Golden failing to add five more yards to get into the bonus. I guess it doesn't
41:49really matter cuz I had like Kyler Murray as my quarterback and half my line >> frankly super bullish for our bags
41:54though that a non-touchdown game for Matthew Golden can be 15 PPR points.
41:59Like very very bullish for our bags.
42:01>> It's going to smash this year. I We could have had so much more Matthew Golden if it wasn't for Patraine.
42:06Whatever. We we could have had I mean frankly with our coalition if we could have gotten Peter on side we could have
42:12drafted him on every team.
42:13>> We could have had him on every team. I >> could have had every team.
42:16>> We could have had him on every team and I really wish we had him on every team.
42:19I mean I wish you were if you were reddrafting right now he's like a fourth round pick.
42:23>> Yeah. Yeah. I I think I I I wish one thing I could go back in time. Not that I think Josh DS is dead but I wish every
42:29>> You would take him ahead of Devont Smith, wouldn't you? Be honest.
42:34>> I mean Heart of Hearts. Yes. Would I rank would I rank them that way? No. But would I draft them that way? Yes. I
42:40think I probably would.
42:42>> Yeah.
42:43>> Um >> yeah, I definitely wish I could turn every single time that I exposure spread to Josh DS or >> um Casey Conpsion who looked great, but
42:52he's on the Browns. Um >> there was like a team that I was looking at that started Taylor, Ken Walker, Zay
42:58Flowers that I'm like really excited about obviously. Then I looked at the rest of the draft and it's like I drafted Brian Thomas and Josh Downs in
43:06round seven eight. I'm like I understand I was and I remember being in that draft thinking should I just click Matthew
43:12Golden at like the 804 and then being like no like he has a lower ADP. I'll play for him to come back in the ninth
43:19and he didn't. He didn't come back in the ninth. I'm like I should have just believed in something. I should have
43:23just taken Matthew Golden at the 78 turn. Um because he he's going to easily outperform that price. So something to remind myself for next year. But uh
43:33yeah, I like him this week.
43:35>> Like him this week. Um it the funny thing is he's it's so 2026 DFS. He's 100% going to be played at higher
43:43ownership than Christian Watson who had like six for 131 and two touchdowns, right?
43:48>> Easily. Easily. Yeah. Um he will Matthew Golden I I typed this in the Discord last week as um Christian Watson was was
43:59rampaging. I was like Matthew Golden is going to lead the Packers in expected points by so many and then Christian Watson is just going to score two
44:06touchdowns on four targets every week.
44:08It's going to end the year is going to end. Matthew Golden 80 targets, 14 touchdowns. Matthew Golden 130 targets, eight touchdowns is just so obviously
44:16what is happening. the Cleveland Browns against Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I I will be playing no Cleveland Browns. Um not Judkins, not Judy, not Conpion, not
44:27Fannon. The I suppose your your big interesting question here is what does the Buccaneers running back roles look like in >> a win in a in a in a leading scenario. I
44:39would guess it would be very good for Bucky and I would guess we're going to see Bucky 20 25% um ownership this week.
44:45ran ran more routes than Mr. Gainwell and outtargeted him seven to one.
44:52>> Yeah, the roles were a lot less segmented than I expected. Like to me, I thought that the baseline was Bucky
44:58would be the early down lead. Gainwell would play all of the obvious passing situations and then the question really was just how much would Gainwell also
45:06work in on early downs. Didn't really work out that way. Bucky started every single drive of the game except for the
45:12drive after he fumbled. Um, and then if he if they converted the first series, Gainwell would usually come in on the
45:19second or third series. If they kept converting series, then Bucky would come back in after one or two gain well series. And so it would just kind of
45:27work out that Bucky would end up being at like a 65 to 35 share uh of the touches. They actually the snaps
45:35actually get higher than that because they also play about 10% of their snaps together. Um 10 to 15% of their snaps
45:40together in pony formation. So, it's kind of bullish in that sense for both backs.
45:45Um, I think the only thing that we really don't have an answer on that is probably very relevant to how willing
45:52you are to play Bucky Irving at ownership of 6100 is whether or not there's a designated goal lineback. The team only ran two true short yardage
46:02plays. There's a third and one and a fourth and one. Gainwell was on the field for both. I don't think that that
46:08said a whole lot about their plans though because Bucky had just had about a 20 yard catch down the sideline. Then
46:15he received another catch on the very next play to get up to to got it to third and one. Um I think in between
46:20that was a target. So he I think would have just subbed off regardless after seeing kind of two big plays in a row.
46:27I don't know that we think we take from that that Gainwell's like the goal lineback. Bucky had the touchdown from the 10. I I'm interested to see whether
46:35or not it just follows the same split or whether it's more Gainwell or more Irving or whether the Shan Tucker Bros
46:41are right and he factors in at all.
46:43We'll see. Um, I wish we had that info before playing against the Browns because I'm tempted to play him, but I
46:49do think there's some risk that we assume things into evidence and then we find out, oh, actually like he's not the
46:55goal line back and so it's like he has 90 yards and five catches, but he gets vulture twice or something. That would
47:04be the fear, >> which could certainly happen. And I think Shawn Tucker was banged up last week, so maybe they activate Shan.
47:12either he was listed as doubtful and then um Joshua Williams ended up being the running back three and played on special teams. So maybe he's active this
47:18week and we see something different there. I my my intuition would be that Bucky is going to be Sim is a very good
47:25play this week and and if anything actually ends up a little bit underro just because there's enough hesitancy enough like ah well he only did it as a
47:33receiver last week only had eight rushes like I I think there's a little bit of that but I'm just happy to and I'm going
47:39to play this this way is like I just think the the Browns are just like a zero until I I I think it can't be
47:46overstated how bad the vibes of having a guy like Deshawn Watson as your quarterback can be for everyone in the building cuz you got to think
47:55>> his teammates have to [ __ ] hate him.
47:57>> Don't What do you What do you think?
48:00>> Yeah. Especially the new ones, right?
48:01Like if >> Yeah. Maybe maybe the guys who've been on the team for like five years are like, "Dan's my boy. He's been treated
48:08unfairly." Whatever. But like the new guys, like what what allegiance do they probably like Shadur? The young guys on the team, right? They probably like
48:15Shadur. They're like Shadur's my buddy.
48:17I do. I I watch Shadur. I watch your on Instagram or whatever. You know, >> like if you're Casey and Denzel Boston
48:24and like you didn't have any allegiance to Deshun Watson at all prior to coming in the NFL, you've just been you've just
48:30been drafted. You're so excited to be playing NFL football and it's like [ __ ] like this is how I've got to spend the
48:36first year of my NFL career is like on this sad sinking ship playing with freaking four. Like no thank you. No
48:45thank you. And maybe maybe like like it's totally possible that like my read on NFL locker room is wrong and maybe
48:51these guy like inside there like they really do ride with Deshawn. Like it's it's def we >> he seems insufferable like not even for
48:58just not even for just the obvious off the- field reasons. Like he just seems like a total dick to be around.
49:06>> He seems like a total dick and and frankly people hate Shadur. I've never been part of the Shadur hate brigade. I
49:12I I mean he's like a little annoying or whatever. Seems like teammates like Shadur though.
49:16>> Seems like teammates like Shadur. That's Yeah. And so I I just think >> he's polarizing outside, but he seems like a genuinely nice guy who is like
49:26like if anything he seems to me kind of like Russell Wilsony where it's like he's a little cheesy and I understand
49:31why people hate him on the outside, but I feel like if he's your guy, like he seems like a nice guy.
49:37>> His dad was Dion Sanders. It's a miracle that he's is like even able to be a normal like his brother seems a bit more
49:45annoying to me. Sho seems >> Yeah, he seems quite annoying.
49:49>> Shiloh seems much more annoying. Um, okay. Buccaneers defense. Good play by the way. The Philadelphia Eagles.
49:55>> I spent like $53 on the Buccaneers defense at a couple FFBC leagues where I started 0 and1. Like I was like, I need
50:01this >> easily. I I I spent a bunch on the Bucks. I spent a bunch on the I spent a bunch on the um the 49ers as well. Like
50:09I just felt like the week one the week one waiverwire was not good. Like why am I not spending $37 on a defense?
50:16>> I uh I seriously miscalibrated the market on Caleb Douglas.
50:22I I've been so aggressively on Caleb Douglas and like unnecessarily. I I must have totaled between all of my FFBC leagues. I must have spent like a
50:33combined $2,200 in Fab that I did not need to spend over bidding on Caleb Douglas this week. I guess I just didn't
50:42understand. I thought like rookie receiver clear number one even if it's the Dolphins. I feel I feel like that's like a $500 player, but I guess it's not.
50:52>> You're going to learn gonna have to learn Chris Bell and learn Malik Willis.
50:55I think I think sadly over time Eagles Titans to me honestly the the only play that you're going to make here would be
51:02Barkley at at 7,000. I'm not interested in any Titans player. I'm not interested in any uh Eagles receiver in a game that
51:10they are favored by this much in.
51:12>> Um >> Barkley you you just I mean he's got to score a long touchdown. He had 15 for 83 as a rusher last week. He had 21% route
51:22participation. you were not going to get any raw participation from him in this game. I would not expect >> I I probably won't play anyone in this
51:29game. Barkley and Herz are fine plays, but I probably will just >> Yeah, her I mean Herz I guess Herz if
51:35Hertz is 4% owned against this team, sure, whatever. I mean, as as uh is going to be evidenced all all year long,
51:42anyone can you know what, frankly, the Eagles are going to play exactly the same way the Jets did. They are just
51:48going to they are just going to metriculate the ball down the field.
51:50We'll probably see some tank in this game. Probably get eight for 43 from Tank Bixsby in this game. So, yeah. Uh,
51:58it's just going to be a really really uh bad football game. The Jacksonville Jaguars are playing the Denver Broncos in Denver. Denver is a three-point
52:06favorite here. Trevor Lawrence looked like the best quarterback in the league last week. His touchdown throw to Josh Cameron. The the end zone view of that
52:14throw was sick. Trevor Lawrence absolutely balled out. Uh, what I would posit to you is how long does it take Parker Washington to get to 8,000
52:24DraftKings dollars in in salary. I mean, our boy our boy PW was dominant last week. Sick touchdown reception from uh from Pwash. Uh, and Jaylen Wadd, you
52:35want Hey, you want to do a bounceback play here, Jaylen Wadd, you will you will get Jaylen Wadd at like 3%
52:42ownership if you want him.
52:44>> Yeah, I probably want him. I mean, this is a rematch of a really fun game from was it week 16 last year? I remember it
52:50would it was definitely in the baseball playoffs because I remember having Trevor Lawrence and uh tilting this game on a BBM bullet. I think it was week 16
53:01and it was super fun. Lawrence got there, ETN got there, Pwash got there, Sutton got there, Harvey got there. Like it was everybody was scoring. I hope
53:09that that happens again. The Broncos looked like a total mess in week one.
53:14Uh, seriously disconcerting effort from them.
53:18I'm I'm curious what happens for Denver because my guess is when a team comes out really pass heavy and it doesn't go
53:26well, especially for a new player caller trying to ingratiate himself to a coach that you just know is desperate to yank
53:34that responsibility for.
53:35>> I think he's calling plays this week.
53:37>> You think Peyton's calling plays this week?
53:38>> That's possible.
53:39>> Maybe maybe maybe he gets one more Maybe he gets one more game. one more game.
53:43>> Yeah. I mean, either way, the the inclination I would get is is that the the first adjustment, which is always
53:50the first adjustment in the NFL, is like, let's establish the run, >> but I don't really think that that's a good plan against Jacksonville. JS Jags
53:56were the number one rush defense in the league last year. Um, >> so I don't think that that's really the pathway to success.
54:04>> And I'm curious to see whether they just try and force the issue anyways or whether they are able to fix some of
54:09their past game issues. I think that the latter is a more profitable path. Um, yeah, Wadd is definitely on my on my
54:17radar. I I really did think that the first half, despite him only catching one ball, another one that was uh immediately tackled and nullified by
54:25penalty, was more bullish than the box score suggested, just in the sense of like he ran a ton of routes. They were
54:32constantly doing things to try and put him in advantageous situations. He was getting slot reps. He was getting backfield reps. Um, they were giving him
54:39switch releases. I thought he was off in the first read. I just felt like Spags, I mean, you know this better than
54:45anyone. You're a Chiefs fan. Like number one options against the Chiefs, they they have a little bit of that Bellichian um approach where it seems like they
54:54usually take away your number one option pretty effectively.
54:57>> Bags point of pride. Yeah, he he does like to do that.
55:01>> So, I wasn't that optimistic that Waddles Sizen would start in week one. I mean, I thought we'd get more than two
55:06yards, but um and then Wadd dropped that slant in the second half. Felt like Bon Knicks just never looked at him again.
55:12Bon Knicks played like [ __ ] on Monday night. He's just so hot and cold that I don't know that you can like apply
55:18predictive power to Bon Knicks's games.
55:20Like Bon will look like the worst quarterback of all time and then will look like the best quarterback all time and they're like not really correlated
55:27to each other. If if you are familiar with Bo Nick's work going back to his time at Auburn, you it'll happen in the
55:32same game where it'll be like, "What is this guy? I don't this is a quarterback.
55:36This looks like Jared Stdum." And then you're like, "Oh shit." I mean, the very famously his week the week 17 the week
55:4317 game uh against against Cincinnati two years ago. The reason he was chucking so much in the second half was he was throw picks in the first half. He
55:52was awful. Just like eating sacks, like miserable. But, you know, you got to you you you do actually have to hand it to
56:00him. Like Boon Knicks is one of those dudes that like he's going down he's going down swinging. He he like he will
56:06he will put himself in a hole and he will play himself out of it. He he's like a real gamer um in that way. I'm
56:12actually kind of optimistic about this game for fantasy. I do think Denver will try and establish that. I don't think they will be successful and the Jaguars
56:19on offense just look like an absolute wagon. Um I don't think I can get there on Tootin this week. I I wish I I wish I
56:25could. I'd like to see I'm very interested in what the touches. I >> I might They can't tackle.
56:31>> They cannot tackle. I I my guess would be first time they run the ball from the three yard line this week though. It is
56:39going to be Crockd based on the reading of the T- Leafs. Now >> Tutin Tutin will be much more involved as a receiver. They both ran the same
56:45amount of routes last week, but it was only like uh there was only 27 total draw I think even less than 27 total
56:52drop backs. So, I'm not taking too much from that. Toutton had a nice screen play that they designed specifically for him that he took for 22 yards. Uh, I
57:01mean, my my play is PE Wash, though.
57:04Like, I'm just straight up. This dude This dude's got to be 7,000 before I'm not Patrick Certan. I don't care.
57:09Frankly, I don't think Patrick >> He's not going to see him.
57:12>> BTJ and Josh Cameron.
57:14>> Yeah. So, I I I think Pwash until he gets to like 7,000. We are We are just playing him.
57:19>> Yeah. I 100% of lineups at 5900. 100% a lineup.
57:23>> Yeah. Yeah. He He's He's just an absolute jam fest. Uh all right. The Las Vegas Raiders nine-point dogs in LA.
57:33I don't know about that, Jim.
57:37Ashton Genty looked like >> How much did you enjoy watching the Chargers? Just stink it up.
57:41>> Oh, buddy.
57:42>> Especially I imagine you had a very low percentage of Chargers in Survivor knowing your personal proclivities.
57:48>> Zero. Zero. Now, frankly, I sadly I think we you probably are going to have to take them a little bit this I don't
57:53think you should take 100% of them. I think you should probably take a little bit of them in Survivor.
57:57>> You have a lot of other options, >> but the Chargers are like not going to be favored by more than two and a half
58:03in a game for >> I I will not be touching the Los Angeles Char. I mean, they look horrendous.
58:10>> Yeah.
58:10>> And and Vegas looked good. I I know that it was against the Dolphins. Like, I I would pick the Chargers to win this
58:15game. I'm not a crazy person, but nine points. I do not know about that. I'm I'm going to overreact to week one
58:24>> on this. They look like a disjointed mess. And if Vlad Makoni can't play, >> sounds like Sounds like Lad is not going
58:31to play based on my reading of the T. I think anytime you sign MBS, that means that there's something rotten in your in
58:39your wide receiver room. That that just trust me. Um very very familiar with with that. I mean, frankly, depending on the way the lines for this
58:48play out, I mean, Genty should be a mega smash because projections feed in from Vegas stuff.
58:55>> And Genty, I don't think is going to be like he'll be less popular than he was last week, obviously, as a as a
59:02three-point favorite. And Hampton, boy, do I boy did I learn a lesson last week, man. Um, I will I will not be
59:09>> Yeah, I played a lot of Hampton last week against my better judgment. the the interior run blocking for the Chargers
59:17is so bad that even I noticed it. Like you got it's got to be really bad for for me to notice it. And then all the
59:23ball knowowers this week. Well, frankly, all the people looking to make excuses for Justin Herbert this week are like, "Dude, his offensive line is terrible.
59:29The interior offensive line's miserable."
59:32>> So, not good for Hampton.
59:33>> The the interior offensive line being bad is especially bad for Hampton because he I mean, this is like another like big ball knower. um point of
59:43contention about Hampton is that even going back to college, like Hampton has always been very good if you can get him
59:50going on a straight line downhill. Like he can truck defenders, he can build up speed, he's a force to be reckoned with.
59:55His lateral movement is really concerning. And so if you can't run inside, then that creates a lot of problems for how you deploy him. That
60:03fumble by him was was a horrendous rep.
60:06I I like he's running outside, tries to cut up field, and his his like fluidity is so poor that he he just kind of
60:12drifts like his momentum carries him into Trey Harris who's blocking Cardinal and then he fumbles. He looked like he was running around in rubber boots on a
60:21skating rink. Like he's just kind of like e it's just tough. So yeah, I don't know. You could like you could probably
60:28play him this week. I mean >> I I still think there's a decent chance that >> Yeah. I think that there's like I don't
60:34like a Hampton. never been like that big a fan of his talent. I've always still felt like the most likely outcome for
60:40his career is that he's Melvin Gordon.
60:41Like a running back that we all agree is not very good, but who still averages 17 points per game in like three separate
60:47seasons.
60:48>> So I I'm still open I'm open-minded to the play. People aren't going to want to do that. No, no. He whatever his
60:54whatever his optimal probability is this week, his ownership in contest will be less than that almost for >> like more obviously he looked like the
61:04best player in the NFL.
61:05>> He looked like the best player in the NFL scored the touchdown on the Texas route was just I mean that was so
61:10choice. I I just think Genty is like to me this is not a popular opinion but like to me skill level he is in the tier
61:17with Bejon and Gibbs. I think he is that good. So, particularly with Bowowers out when like there was a real effort to use him as a
61:25receiver. I was this you who tweeted this? Someone was tweeting this last week that like the most likely thing is that Bash is just going to take the
61:32Bowowers routes because Bowers is a tight end anyway. And that's exactly what happened. like the Trey Tucker stuff, the Jaylen Naylor, they were they
61:39played the same role they always did and it was just more routes, more targets for for Bes led the wide receivers in in
61:46uh >> Yeah. Bes I I did tweet that. And yeah, Bes and Bowers are like like Bes is like Bower's direct backup.
61:54>> Yeah. cuz cuz bes is like a it's it's like uh when I took singing lessons as a child um uh my my instructor used to
62:03because I was also doing acting and my instructor used to be like you know you want to be a a singer who acts not an
62:08actor who sings um because obviously she was partial to singing. It's like these things are two sides of the same coin.
62:15Like Jack Bash is a a wide receiver who's kind of a tight end and Brock Bower is a tight end who's kind of a
62:21wide receiver but like functionally they're the same. they play the same role in an offense. Um, ironically, Bowowers is a better receiver and Bash
62:27is probably a better blocker. But, um, I I I think that, yeah, Bash is basically playing the Bowowers role just with the
62:33exception of like Bowowers and Bash will probably both play on third and eight when when Bowowers is back and Mayor probably goes
62:42to the bench, but other other than that, they're basically the same role.
62:45>> Yes. Um, okay. Anything else interesting from this game? I mean, if Lad doesn't play Trey Harris, QJ, Gadston, you know,
62:55Gadston's theoretically Gadston's rap participation should increase because they don't really trust him as a blocker at all. Yeah. Theoretically, >> I mean, if if you are a Chargers guy and
63:06you just want to say, "Hey, man, week one crazy. Like, let's just do let's just do a kind of an alltime buy low.
63:12Like, the Raiders are bad. The Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL." like I I you could talk you couldn't talk me into
63:19it, but I would hear it. I would I would hear I would listen to what you were saying. I wouldn't I wouldn't say you're
63:23crazy. I just don't think I can get there. Um yeah, myself.
63:27>> Yeah. Uh all right, let's go ahead and move on to the Seattle Seahawks at the Arizona Cardinals.
63:35I think I think actually no playable players in in this game. McBride, I guess.
63:42>> Uh yeah, you wouldn't you wouldn't play JSN? I mean, probably not, right? You just you can't get there with Drew
63:47Lockach.
63:48>> I mean, of course, of course, you can play JSN and his ownership will be low enough to to to get there. But yeah, no,
63:54I wouldn't I wouldn't think JSN is going to grade out as like a super um optim.
64:00Yeah, >> I I I'm like slight I don't think this is the week I I want to buy in on Michael Wilson because I think that week
64:08one was quietly bullish for him in that like it's it's clear that the Marvin Harrison Jr. thesis that I I supported
64:15that's not going to work. He's going to he's not going to do anything this year.
64:18He's just off in his own little world running exceiver routes. And I'm sure that there'll be certain games that he gets more one-on-one opportunities than
64:25he did week one, but he's not going to be a central point of the offense.
64:29Wilson it seemed like was and I think that the Kendrick Bourne wildness kind of covered up the fact that I think
64:36Wilson actually had had a quietly bullish role. I don't know that this is the week to get in on it um against
64:41Seattle at 5400 but I I'm guessing that Wilson um is going to have much better weeks than he had in week one and I do want to
64:49play that angle. I just probably can't get there this week.
64:52>> Yeah, I'm I'm with you. I mean, you could, you know what, you could talk me into uh you could talk me into Jarian
64:58price at 5,500. I do think his role is, if you made me bet one way or the other, is likely to stay the same, expand or
65:06shrink. I would say slightly expand because I think the easiest thing for them to do is just to not use Emanuel
65:13Wilson in the short stuff. There was you you wrote about this in thinking about thinking, but there was like one run on
65:19in a short situation that he bounced outside when he should have just taken what was there. That's a coachable moment.
65:25>> You can replace him in game with Emanuel Wilson who just is knows his job and is going to come in and do that and not try
65:31to do that. But this is also, I think, a strong a strong spot as a massive favorite with a backup quarterback to
65:38see potentially like 18 rushes from Jadarian Price.
65:43Uh, okay. The Here we go. Here's the Bonanza game. 52 1/2 point total. The Washington Commanders playing in the dome at the Dallas Cowboys. Cid Lamb
65:52only 7,300. Javvante 6,400. Picking 6,300. Diggs 5.2. McLaren 5.2. I mean, Dak is only 6.4. Is it just Is it just
66:03Dak and CVI and it's like literally that easy? This week, >> my um I'm I'm going to play a lot of
66:08Washington this week. This is kind of my my favorite angle of the week is I just think that the Philly defense is going
66:14to be a top three unit in the NFL with their personnel on Mangio and I think Washington looked worse in that game
66:22than they actually are. Um I thought that in those final two drives like Daniels showed off kind of what makes him special and then Terry specifically
66:32I've seen a ton of bearish stuff on him.
66:34I get it. He he was outproduced by Diggs and Antonio Williams. But I would guess that like wide receivers who only play X
66:43receiver are just going to do nothing against Philly pretty much all season.
66:46They have Quinnon Mitchell, one of the best corners in the league. They have Reek Woolen as their other outside corner who's fantastic. And then Vic
66:53Fangio's entire thing is is forcing targets away from the downfield wide receivers and towards uh the short and intermediate areas. So, I think McCorm
67:03was kind of set up in a spot where he didn't have much of a chance in week one. Dallas, frankly, beclined
67:09themselves on Saturday Night Football. I mean, there they didn't cover Isaiah likely at all on two of his touchdowns.
67:15There was a period of the game where uh they basically did what I do playing Madden where like Devin Singleary was
67:21wide open in the flat and they just kept calling the same play four consecutive times. Dallas kept not covering it until
67:27eventually he got into the end zone.
67:29I I think that Washington will have more ways to attack Dallas than they did against Philly. So, I'll I'll be playing
67:35some Jaden Daniels, Terry Mclloren stacks this week and certainly bringing that back with Lamb or with Pickins and I would be very happy doing the opposite
67:44as well, playing uh the Dak side of things. Javvante is a totally fine play.
67:50I'm even mildly open to Jaka Kroski Merritt as a play, but uh I I'm very into all of the main Dallas characters
67:58and I'm into Jord.
68:01>> I think JCM is thin anyway because it just requires like a two touchdown game because he's not going to catch enough
68:08passes and there is some risk that he is pre-benched. I I don't think it is. I I would say like 90% he is going to be the
68:17starting running back again here. Uh I mean obviously if he fumbles again he will be he will be benched and and the
68:23coaches said as much like the coaches did give us the classic. They were like yeah I mean ball security and and Bill
68:28had fumble problems last year as well and he gets the ball punched out and Kron Allen comes in which is just like I
68:35do think it is kind of a backwards play.
68:36It was a great play by the defender to knock the ball. JCM did not do anything wrong on that play at all. Uh totally
68:44exonerated Jaori Kroski Merritt. I mean, I think the great way to play this game is I think you just do I think you just
68:50do Dak. I think you take your favorite Cowboys wide receiver and I think you play Stefon Diggs. I'm I'm out. Send Put
68:58me Put me out of the Terry McLuren experience at two two for 12 uh in in that game. I'm done. I'm out. I my my
69:05proclivities are to be out on McLaren anyways because I've disliked him since he was at Ohio State. But uh he we are
69:12we are seeing the the lad mcconification or or the keen nalification of Terry McLuren in in real time. The same way
69:20that Keenan targets per route run moged uh lad last year. This is what's happening to Terry.
69:26>> That's totally possible. I'm going to I'm going to bet on him this week. But um I I get what you're saying for sure.
69:32I just think I frankly I just think the mountain of evidence would suggest not the mountain of evidence but a decent
69:38amount of evidence would suggest that Diggs is a better target earning wide receiver uh than than Terry McLuren.
69:44Although the ways that McLaren gets there are like slightly better for Daily Fantasy because they come via spike. His his A dot is higher. It's more likely to
69:52score a deep touchdown. Yeah.
69:54>> Yeah, I get that. But like this is also a team that probably won't throw a running back that much. Chicka Conquo is
70:00probably missing this game. So, I don't think they're gonna throw the tight ends that much. Um, >> yeah, >> I'm sure that they will eventually
70:07realize that Antonio Williams is very obviously their third starting receiver and not Demi Brown. I don't know for sure if they'll realize that this week.
70:15>> So, I I tweeted I tweeted this the other day and again, I'm very bad at remembering this, but someone pointed
70:19out they're like, "Yeah, they're just they're it was Cups. it was cups, but he was like basically the last two teams
70:26that Diggs has played on, they've decided he's too old to play outside, so they're just got to play him out of the
70:30slot, despite the fact that you and I know that Diggs has won on the outside before. So that is what is standing in
70:36the way of Antonio Williams is Diggs having to play outside again, >> right? So if I mean that still feels like the kind of thing that just
70:43eventually gets resolved over the course of a year. Like how many how many times do you need to watch DeAndi Brown do
70:48nothing and Antonio Williams look like a baller until you just figure out a way to get your best three players on the
70:53field together and not Demi Brown. Like at a certain point you just kind of have to figure it out. But I agree that it
70:58might not happen this week. Like I still expect it to be a committee >> at wide receiver 3. So it's like any
71:04routes that Terry McLaren and Stefon Diggs are running where the competition for targets is Bill, John Bates, and Deami Brown. Like, yeah, Diggs is going
71:13to have a huge targets pro run, but there's still a lot left for Terry on on those opportunities as well. Like, those
71:18those two are the only eligible receivers on those concepts.
71:23>> Yes. Yeah. Good game. No interest in me.
71:26Uh no no Jake Ferguson Che I'm not I'm not >> Ferg Dog is getting dusted by so many angles right now. Like
71:34>> so many angles >> because he he uh he had a rough blocking game. Brevin Span forward they seem to love much superior blocker. He's getting
71:42some of that like tight end league stuff. Um Florenoi is a real part of the offense this year. So I think he's their
71:49actual number three target. Not Ferguson. And then Javvante had a much better passing game role than he had last season. So
71:55>> people people are saying TUR over Jay Ferg even after week one.
71:59>> Yeah, I'd say that it might be no Ferg, but I would prefer >> might be sadly sadly might be no Fergs.
72:05Uh, and then the the final game of the slate, and I actually think this is the most compelling question to answer of
72:13all the ones that we have gone through, which is what is Christian McCaffry's real role? Was the week one Kalin Black
72:20stuff Australian weirdness? He's 30 years old. You don't want to give him too much work. It's first time he's been tackled in seven months. We are just
72:28trying to We're winning this game handily, so there's no reason to really lean on any of our veteran players. We just we lost Dean Stribbling for the
72:36season in the middle of this game. We lost Jake Ton just for the season in the middle of this game. Let's try and
72:41survive here. Or is Christian McCaffrey heading into Do you remember the year that Leenian Tomlinson played for the Jets?
72:50>> Yeah.
72:51>> So if uh this let me let me take you guys down uh let me take you guys down memory lane here.
72:56>> Was it Shawn Green?
72:58>> Shawn Green.
72:59>> He played fumble machine. So LT's final season, he uh his final season in San Diego, he had 223 243 touches, 888
73:10yards, and 12 touchdowns. He then goes to play uh age 31 season for the Jets.
73:15Ends up with 219 rushes, but 79 targets, ending up with,200 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns that season for the Jets,
73:25which is a really good season, but it's not a capital L, capital T season. And in that same season, Shawn Green had 185
73:34of the most empty calorie rushes you will ever see in the history of fantasy football. Frankly, if you made me make a
73:42true bet on the balance of probability, I think this could be a Leian Tomlinson Shawn Green situation where and you you
73:50you of course had a great tweet where you were like, if you removed all of Christian McCaffry's rushes that did not
73:55go for a touchdown, which I think was what, like 280 touches or something like that. Like an insane amount.
74:01>> 301 301 >> 301 touches. He still averages 16.7 >> 17.4. You actually did the reverse, Madic. Usually you lie to make it
74:11better. You lie to make it worse. 17.
74:14>> Um, which is still very good and is McCaffrey is still going to be very involved as a receiver and with each
74:20cascading injury for the 49ers. I think his role probably increases, but as gigantic favorites here, frankly, I think my expectation would be 10 rushes,
74:31eight targets for for CMC. If that is wrong, he's the play of the slate. If if it's if we if it's all the way back to
74:39CMC, he's the play of the slate. Where where do you land?
74:43>> Um I I'm probably of the mindset that the split is real, right? CMC was one of the least efficient rushers in the
74:54league last year.
74:56He's older. They clearly like Kalin Black more than they've liked their RB2s of the past.
75:03So, I think that they like I don't know if you remember this, but way well, you obviously remember this. I'm kind of
75:09saying this more to the audience. Um, way back when they first traded for Christian McCaffrey, they had Elijah Mitchell, who was legitimately good. He
75:17was just always hurt. And there were a couple of games where he wasn't hurt and Eli Mitchell was actually getting real
75:24run next to Christian McCaffrey. It was like McAffrey was kind of like getting 55 to 60% of the pure rushing, but he
75:32was getting all the high value touches.
75:33He was getting all the receiving. But Eli Mitchell was getting like 8 10 carries a game. And I've always felt like that was kind of what they would
75:41love the situation to be, but it couldn't be that with Eli Mitchell because he was constantly getting hurt.
75:48They've brought in other guys that they just didn't really like enough, whether that be Isaac Arendo or Jordan James or whoever. They clearly try because they
75:57draft a running back every year. They just suck at it. They just always draft the worst guys, >> right? And then they they like Kaylin
76:04Black clearly. So I I think that there will be some element of that. I would guess though that the number of games
76:10that um I would guess that the percentage of times Kalin Black actually sees more rush attempts than Christian McCaffrey, which he did in week one,
76:18remains under 50%. I think that that will prove to be a bit of an outlier.
76:23Um, largely because you know what McCaffrey is still the best of any running back in the league at is receiving the ball out of the
76:31backfield and being just a total mind f for defenses. And that doesn't work the same way if teams don't respect that you
76:39can just turn around and hand the ball off to him. If you give him like six carries a week, you know, teams are just
76:44going to play him like he's a receiver lined up in the back field and you're an empty. they're not going to respect.
76:48Okay, he could run the ball, he could split out in the slot, he could run out of the back field at any depth. You have
76:53to give him carries even if he's not particularly effective on them. And he looked really good as a runner in week
76:59one in a way that he didn't at any point last year. So, I would guess that it's more of a 60/40 rushing split in
77:05McCaffry's favor, that he continues to get all the highv value touches, that he continues to see a bunch of targets, and
77:11that I I suspect he'll probably see the vast majority of the goal line work. So, I think it's a very slight downgrade for
77:18McAffrey. I don't think it's a massive one. We just saw Miami get pulverized by a running back getting creative, receiving usage out of the backfield in
77:28week one. I I will be playing a lot of Christian McCaffrey this week.
77:32Personally, >> it's it's it's fascinating to me. I I really I really think it is because it's like if he comes in if he projects to be
77:4217% like if he's less owned than Amarian Hampton I think it's just like wow you you you load up the Brinks truck if
77:50there's no ownership discount in any way shape or form and he's just as owned as Bejon he becomes far less interesting to
77:57me >> I'd rather play him than be at least I know this offense is going to put up points Atlanta might Atlanta might score
78:04six >> no it's a it's a it's A very good it's a very good point. Um I'm I'm with you.
78:10>> Uh I'm with you >> conceptually. I don't know if I'll be able to be there with me with with my
78:15money.
78:16>> Um I I'll tell you who I'm very interested in.
78:20>> Mike Evans.
78:22>> Mike Evans looked like uh you gota I I have to tip my cap to the people who were never panick on Mike Evans because
78:28if you were never a panic on Mike Evans, you you are going to come up way ahead in fantasy football this year. He looked
78:34incredible. He is frankly somehow ended up being the healthiest 49er remaining.
78:40Um although he is actually older than Debo. Debo looks quite spelt. Uh shout out to spelt Debo. Yeah. Um >> and and frankly perturie, you know,
78:51Pertie gets it gets lost in all of this.
78:53Perty can can windmill um in in this spot.
78:57>> Yeah. I I'm open to every iteration of 49ers stack. I mean, the only the only thing that is a little bit scary is that
79:03if Miami stays in this game longer than you'd expect them to, they'll be so runheavy and slow that they can kind of
79:11grind things to a halt. But if if this goes as expected and the 49ers just instantly get up 14 to three, then then
79:18you're going to be fine on the pace side of things. So, yeah, I'm not probably not playing any Dolphins. Um, well,
79:25actually, I might play some Caleb Douglas. I might play some C Doug at 3,700 as a bring back. Uh, but uh I'm
79:31very in on Pury, McAffrey, Evans, Debo.
79:34No kill for me yet.
79:36>> Yeah, valid. Valid. Um, all right. I think is that it? That's all our games.
79:42All right. There you go. We have cooked through all of our games. Uh, we will now create our DraftKings lineup in the
79:49Millionaire Maker, which is back to $20 this week. Obviously, if we win, we'll do a giveaway, uh, $10,000 giveaway, and all you have to do is comment down below
79:59your gold star play in this slate, and then Jake and I will end by giving our Wait, do we call them gold stars? Yes,
80:06gold stars.
80:07>> Yeah, we've been doing gold stars. I I have a disgusting gold star play this week that you're not going to like, but
80:12I've already kind of teased it.
80:13>> That's uh that's perfect. All right. Uh, as as always, I will give you the uh the first pick in this draft. I will select
80:20my horrendous probably going to regret this gold star play of the week, Mr.
80:26Terry McLaren.
80:27>> That is It's I really hate it. I really I really do. Um that's that's fine though. I'm not going to do
80:37Actually, you know what? You made you made a gross play. We can actually just like absolutely chalk it out now because
80:42I'm going to do my gold star play. my gold star play is Jamar Chase uh against Derk Stingley and the Houston Texans. Uh
80:50if if you want to call me a coward and say that, then I I need you guys to show me the projected ownership on Jamar
80:57Chase that makes you think that's bad because I I think the projected ownership that I'm seeing on him is uh is quite low. So Jamar Chase, my gold
81:05star play.
81:08>> Um all right, I will I will make sure I get the stack that I want in here. I'll take Jaden Daniels. I I think frankly I
81:15think you are in a good part of the game tree here because I think Jaden Daniels will probably end up being a little bit
81:20underowned relative to what I think he can do and I think Terry McLuren of the available options will end up being uh
81:28the the least owned compared to their optimal probability. I will give us the ability to save a little bit of cash and
81:35I will put Matthew Golden in at $4,700 against the the New York Football Jets.
81:40>> All right. I will uh I will take um you we you've filled up the wide receiver slots. Um so I'll I'll keep going on our
81:48game stack at the running back position.
81:50I'll also keep going with players that you don't like. Um and I don't like frankly I probably like him even less
81:55than you do. Javvante Williams.
81:58Frankly, I I actually think Javante has now entered into the Chiron zone for me where just based you actually do like
82:05him due >> well just due due to the political affiliations of the people that I podcast with, I'm now the Javante guy.
82:12Like I like I'm I am like pretty significantly overweight Javvante Williams in in baseball just due due to the way the uh the pricing shook out.
82:22So, we now have 19,800 remaining. We have to fill a running back, a tight end, a flex, and a defense. Looking at cheaper defenses, I
82:32mean, the Jags immediately leap out. Is like a phenomenal option at $2,400 on the road, which gives us a good bit
82:40more.
82:40>> How much is Tampa this week? I assume they're like like are they like 5,000? I might >> It's actually not crazy. They are only
82:463,600, which >> Okay, I'm going to find a way to get that into my lineups this week.
82:50>> So, it's funny. It's funny you mentioned that. I played a high price defense on like 80% of my lineups last week because
82:56I thought the Steelers and um >> right >> the Steelers and the the Jags actually were just so so good. The only cheap
83:04defense I played at all was the Jets. Um so let's take a look at the tight end position here. I think there are plenty
83:11of ways to get cheap here. I think May we actually didn't mention Michael Mayer. 74% rout participation, 24% target share. I I think he's quite good.
83:20There's a lot of good cheap tight ends here. Buth um Schultz.
83:26>> We're going to chalk it up and I'm just going to take $3,200 Dton Schultz who who >> I would imagine he will end up being the
83:33most owned tight end. Uh maybe maybe it ends up being mayor, but it'll be close between the two of them.
83:40>> I think if it's uh yeah, I love Schultz this week. He's worthy of the chalk. If you want to get off the chalk slightly,
83:46the guy I would throw out would be TJ Hawinson. I think is like as a car as a longtime Carson Wentz appreciator. This
83:53guy loves throwing to tight ends more than anything. And I expect him to be chasing points against Chicago. I could see Hawk getting like seven catches for
84:0142 yards. Um I'll take uh I'll take Christian McCaffrey.
84:07>> Christian McCaffrey. Um this is this is going to end up being a little bit of like some some huge chalk pieces but
84:13also some weirdo spots in here. Um, oh, and then I will just select Bucky Irving, who I think is a phenomenal
84:20play. Uh, Jaden Daniels, Javvante Williams, Chris McAffrey, Terry McLuren, Jamar Chase, Matthew Golden, Daltton Schultz, Bucky Irving, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Gold star play from myself,
84:31Jamar Chase, Terry McLuren from Jacob Sanderson. Uh, make sure that you guys like the video. Make sure you're subscribed to the channel. You can check
84:39out all of Jacob's work on Thinking about Thinking. And we actually have a promo code live for Run the Sims. If you
84:45guys want to sign up using code thinking, you can get the 20% discount on your first month. Or maybe it might
84:54even be for the year. I don't know. You guys will have to go apply it.
84:58>> Yes. Um I will uh I'll uh yeah, excited to do that. Excited to uh excited to be working with Run the Sims. I I was
85:05running the Sims on on Sunday. It was fun uh getting in the lab and uh yeah, definitely excited to partner with
85:12>> It's really nice they have the ability.
85:14This is like the the number one thing I made them add this off season was I was like I need the ability to just be a
85:20handbuer bro. Build the lineup and then submit it to grade it. That's what I need. That's what I needed. Yeah, >> that is that's that's what that's that's
85:27what I need as well. Like that's my preference is like I want to I want to do the work but then I want to see how
85:32it actually sims and all. It was great.
85:34Super super easy to follow. I love doing it. Um, I'm I'm pumped. It will be uh it will be the only
85:42product that I'm building my lineups around this year. So, I'm would love for anybody >> to join me in that endeavor with promo
85:50code thinking. Um, I will also shill for uh my own work this week. Um, if people want to check me out over on
85:58jacobsanderson.substack.com, I have the hitchhikers guide to running back up where we went in depth on every backfield. I was grinding the all 22. I
86:08was grinding the Yonke reports. Uh I was writing up what happened, what to expect to happen in each of those back fields.
86:14And then for my for my Dynasty Bros, I have a new weekly inseason feature uh that I have the time to write because
86:22I'm no longer a practicing lawyer called uh Dynasty Corner where basically I just summarize everyone who's moving up my Dynasty rankings, moving down, and why
86:31players I'm holding steady on and then uh my top three buys, top three sells in dynasty leagues each week as I'm I'm
86:38actively in the streets firing trade offers with or for. So check that all out over on Thinking About Thinking.
86:43>> There you go, everyone. Make sure that you are sign up over on Thinking About Thinking. You can also check out uh my
86:49guy Jacob at the Long View, his Patreon that he runs with Mr. Ben Gretch. And I will be back with all of you guys
86:57tomorrow.
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