The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast on Luther Burden

Historic rookie efficiency unlikely to repeat; regression risk from low ADOT.

Burden posted a historic rookie season with 2.74 yards per route run (highest among rookie receivers with 200+ routes since 2020 per True Media) and caught 47 of 60 passes, but JJ Zachariason identifies him as an unfavorable regression candidate entering 2026. His ADOT was only 7.7 yards, and with Caleb Williams historically showing below-average catchable target rates, Burden may see a higher uncatchable target rate if asked to work downfield more.

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