Derrick Henry fantasy football insight from Hayden Winks - PPR Rankings

Derrick Henry is the RB5 on RB13 usage over the past two seasons as a Raven in half PPR scoring. He's priced at RB11 on Underdog, so the market is expecting a decline. Henry is the RB2 in EPA per carry (+0.08) over the last two years, while he was the RB1 in rush yards over expected (+27%) last season. Natural regression is reasonable to expect, but finding legit signs of decline is difficult. On tape, he does seem 85% of himself with his lateral mobility feeling a little worse than his long speed. The downgrade doesn't make me lose any sleep. Last year, he had the 5th-most half PPR points in NFL history for an age-31 RB (259.4). If he did that again as a 32-year-old, then he's in the neighborhood of 195-225 fantasy points. Only Walter Peyton (ever heard of him?) and John Riggins have scored more than the 259.4 fantasy points as a 32+ year old. That said, this is 2026 and Henry is literally built differently. If someone is more likely to defy the odds of an older back, it's Henry. If you want to add more injury risk than other bellcows, that is fair given his crazy workload but overselling those odds has hurt a lot more than helped. On Underdog, Henry's 1239.5 rushing yards only trail Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor, and he has the highest rushing touchdown projection (12.5) of anyone. In half PPR, the upside is tantalizing. The Ravens are 5th in projected points this season, and even RB2 Keaton Mitchell and TE2 Isiah Likely are out of the way without anyone really sliding into those roles. We'll see if new OC Declan Doyle is an upgrade over serviceable OC Todd Monken,...