4 Second-Year Breakout Candidates (Ep. 2028)
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19 min
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May 19, 2026
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Tue, May 19, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
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0:21This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It's me, Joey P., Joe P.
0:25Zappia, and today I'm here with my two best friends, D-Bro, Derek Brown, the King of Bros, and Andrew Erickson, Mr.
0:31Big Pot Energy himself, and the three amigos are here again.
0:34That's right, because you can't get enough of us here on the channel.
0:38We are the straw that stirs the drink, and we're going to talk about four second-year breakout candidates.
0:44That's right, sometimes it doesn't always happen in year one for people.
0:47Just ask Andrew Erickson. That first year his rookie season was really tough.
0:51He was falling over his words. He was forgetting player names, who guys played on different teams.
0:56Did that anything go for him? Running routes, falling on the ground.
1:00End of the offseason. That's right. Yeah, that first plant foot, still a struggle bus for him.
1:05But after that, he put his nose to the grindstone, and he really pushed forward, and look at what he's become now.
1:11A superstar in the world of fantasy sports. Now, we're still waiting for the breakout for Derek Brown.
1:16He's in year five. It still hasn't happened, but sometimes it just doesn't happen.
1:21So, we're going to talk about some second-year guys here that are on the precipice of maybe some great things in fantasy football.
1:27Before we get to it, subscribe to the channel right now.
1:31Drop your comments below about your favorite second-year breakouts.
1:33We love to hear from our people here. But let's start here with Andrew Erickson.
1:38Why don't you give us your big second-year breakout performer number one for 2026?
1:42Speaking of superstars, I think O'Mearian Hampton can have a superstar level jump in year two.
1:47Last year, he had to overcome a lot as a rookie in the Chargers offense that was really hurt by injuries all over the place.
1:54The offensive line was gutted by injuries. Hampton himself missed a lot of games.
1:58He only played in nine games as a rookie.
2:01And I think that things are going to improve in year two.
2:04You have Mike McDaniel coming in as the new offensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Chargers.
2:09And what I like about him is how often he targeted his running backs as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins.
2:16Three of the four seasons he was head coach, they were top three in running back target chair.
2:21So, last year, Hampton flashed as a receiver. I believe he had five games with at least four or more receptions.
2:27So, I think Hampton, especially with what he did as a rusher in the second half of the season when he was
2:34playing, he was 11th in yards after contact per attempt.
2:37PFF ranked him as the eighth best graded rusher.
2:39He showed that he could handle a full workload.
2:42He played four games with at least 79% plus snap share.
2:45Average 17.5 fantasy points per game. And overall average 17.3 touches per game tied for top 12 at the position.
2:51So, although it wasn't a complete rookie year, a lot of the running backs' rookies underwhelmed last season.
2:57I think in year two he is set to take a big step forward.
3:01I love this Chargers offense because number one they have a brutal schedule.
3:05So, I think it's going to be a lot of shootouts.
3:08And losing Jesse Minter as their defensive coordinator, I think that defense is going to get exposed against this tough schedule.
3:14And I think Hampton, whether they're winning games or they're losing games, is going to be involved heavily throughout.
3:20He's explosive, catches passes, he's big, he's got the size.
3:23Basically checking off all the boxes of a year two breakout at the running back position.
3:27Yeah, I am uncomfortably all in on Amari and Hampton right now.
3:31I've raised my ranking based on the conversation we had on the running back show we just recorded.
3:36I had to bump him up the ranks as Erickson was talking.
3:40And I don't think it's wrong to do that.
3:42And, you know, I don't want to get it out of control.
3:46I don't want him being a top five overall player or something like that.
3:50But I always like to think about where we're going to be in 2027 when we're having these conversations about what the ranks look like.
3:58And I find it really difficult to believe that Omar and Hampton isn't in that top five running back conversation.
4:03I just, I just from the setup. So therefore I'm going to be a, the best part about it is I don't
4:10think he's ever going to get quite there in the ranks this year.
4:14But I'm going to be drafting him as though, like, that's my approach and what I think of him in terms of
4:20how much he means to my roster. So D bro, let's talk about one of your second year breakouts who kind of made the grade for you.
4:28Oh, you're going to love this, Joe. It's facial tootin baby.
4:32Am I? You're going to love it. Look, I want facial tootin to be good.
4:36Oh, you're going to be happy then. Here we go.
4:39You're going to be very happy. I'll get good.
4:42I want to be good. I'm just afraid of it.
4:45I'm fearful. Well, we want to bet on talent.
4:47Talk me down. Tootin definitely has the freaking talent, man.
4:50Like amongst 55 qualifying backs last year, fifth and rushing success rate, 11th and missed.
4:55Tackle rate 17th and yards of the contact per attempt.
4:58I know everybody is talking about Liam Cohen and all the strings we can, you know, draw all the parallels we could
5:04draw to Chris Rodriguez about all this kind of stuff.
5:07Can we also talk about Liam Cohen and that front office drafted basial tootin?
5:11And so talk about wanting running backs. Well, they went out and added to this roster before getting Chris Rodriguez on the team.
5:18So we're talking about hierarchy of needs here. I put tootin above Rodriguez and Rodriguez is a fine player for what he
5:25offers an offense, but he, we also can agree collectively that he's basically a zero sum player in the passing game.
5:31So tootin at worst would be the passing down compliment to this offense.
5:35But I think he's going to be so much more than that because the early down talent is there.
5:40The, the physical, uh, specimen that he is as a player, we talk about the athleticism.
5:45So the ability to rip off those long runs, Chris Rodriguez does not have that.
5:49So the risk is being baked in for basial tootin and rankings and where he'll go in draft season.
5:55And I'm sure there's still going to be a talking point for everybody throughout the entirety of the summer.
6:01I'm going to continue to bet on the talent of basial tootin.
6:04And we didn't see, we were robbed of it.
6:07Honestly, guys, because the finger injury that he sustained in his rookie season, we want to see these guys get utilized more
6:13in the stretch run of their rookie season. We were robbed of that because of the finger injury that basial tootin sustained last year.
6:21If we would have gotten that down the stretch and it wasn't just all Travis, he can then basial tootin wouldn't be
6:27getting, I'm not going to say hate, but all of the questions about his role in this backfield would not be as present entering this year.
6:35If tootin had played more, which we were starting to see during the middle of the season, if that would have increased
6:41in the back half of last year, we wouldn't have all these questions about him entering 2026.
6:46All right. So those are two names that I know I am very excited about.
6:51I'm very aggressively in on Ramar and Hampton. I'm very tentatively in on basial tootin.
6:55I want it to work. I'm just a little bit more concerned about all this stuff going around Jacksonville first, but that's okay.
7:02Cause there's more names to get to on this list before we get to them.
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9:08Healthcare just got less painful. All right, let's go to the next guy on our list here.
9:13And we've got not one, but two Chicago Bears.
9:16Now, one of these guys, I can already tell you, all the shares I can get this year, I won.
9:22The other guy, I'm not so sure. So Luther Burden, Erickson, that's your guy that I'm not so sure about yet.
9:28Sell me. Let's go. Well, I'm not so sure either, but I think that he's a player worth having the conversation about
9:34as a breakout candidate, because that's the name of the show.
9:38It's not breakout locks. It's breakout candidates. And Luther Burden, if you look at him in the ECR, wide receiver 21.
9:44I mean, that is a breakout candidate worthy position.
9:46And it's because of what he did in his rookie year.
9:50Yards per outrun off the charts. Third among qualifying wide receivers last year behind Pukunikua, Jackson Smith, and Jigba.
9:55Maybe you've heard of them. They're pretty good. They're pretty good in fantasy last year as well.
10:00So a lot of the hype and excitement about Luther Burden stems from he was super efficient as a rookie.
10:06You look at what he did yards after the catch per reception.
10:10He was fourth at 7.2, 10th in forced missed tackles.
10:13Ben Johnson has been very vocal about we got to get find ways to get the ball into Luther Burden's hands because
10:19last year, every time they did, good things happened.
10:22And that should continue to happen with now a big opportunity opening up in this offense with DJ Moore, no longer on the team.
10:29This team is second in vacated wide receiver targets.
10:32Fifth in targets inside the 10 heading into the 2026 season.
10:35So when we're talking about who could potentially step up, take on a bigger share of the targets in an offense that,
10:42look, maybe Caleb Williams is just the answer, right?
10:44You just draft him and you don't have to guess where the targets are going to go because he's going to melt
10:51faces in his second year with Ben Johnson. That's kind of how I like playing it.
10:55But with Luther Burden, if he ends up being that Amon Ross St.
10:59Brown and Ben Johnson's offense, where he's getting a lot of the layup targets out of the slot, he had the highest
11:06target rate or catchable target rate per fantasy points data last year at 90%.
11:10So while Roma Dunze, also a player that should be able to capitalize on some of these vacated targets, he's seeing more of the tougher targets.
11:18There's a reason why him and Caleb Williams haven't been able to connect the last two seasons because he's running the harder routes where it's not as easy.
11:26But Luther Burden, he's getting the layups underneath targets where he can just create yards after the catch, which is what he is best at.
11:33And coming out of college, I always felt that he was very dependent on his landing spot and where he is in
11:40Ben Johnson's offense, where he can be that underneath eater rack up PPR points.
11:44Yeah, this is the bull case for Luther Burden as a breakout candidate.
11:48The bearish case is, well, what if he doesn't play more snaps?
11:51He only played 60% of the snaps three times last year.
11:55And when the bears go heavy tight ends, is Luther Burden even on the field?
11:59Like who's the number one wide receiver on the offense?
12:02We know Coles Lovin's going to be on the field.
12:05So is it really about, is it Roma Dunze or is it Luther Burden?
12:09And I agree with ECR ranking Burden ahead of Odundze because, well, Ben Johnson, I think he made it very clear who
12:16he wants to be featured in his offense when he drafted Colson Loveland and Luther Burden with his first two picks when
12:22he became the head coach of the Chicago Bears.
12:25So that's my long winded answer of saying Luther Burden is a breakout candidate.
12:29Am I fully there with the draft price? Because it's all baked in.
12:33I'm not so sure, but I can definitely see the appeal and why people are excited about the bears wide receiver.
12:39And you see that thing again, too, where they put a Dunze and Burden kind of close to each other in the
12:46ECR because what does that tell everybody? Nobody knows.
12:48Nobody's sure exactly I was going to shake out.
12:51So they just put them all together because everyone's got a question mark.
12:55Now, you mentioned Colson Loveland. That's the guy that I think on a weekly basis that I want.
13:00That's the one that I'm investing heavily in because Debrough, to Erickson's point, you don't know who's going to be on the
13:07field or what the scenario is going to be.
13:09But there's one guy that I know is going to be part of the game plan every week because at the end
13:16of the year, through the playoffs, Colson Loveland was an absolute freaking rock star.
13:20And it's just very clear to me that that is the guy where the offense is really going to run through, not
13:26necessarily the receivers, which is an interesting scenario. But we even saw, you know, back when Ben Johnson had Sam Laporte in
13:33his rookie year, how good that can look potentially.
13:36So let's talk about Colson Loveland and why you agree with me that he could absolutely be a big breakout this season.
13:42I want to be very clear that I think both of these breakouts for these Bears players that can happen with DJ
13:49Moore being gone, this target tree getting consolidated more.
13:51And kind of how Erickson alluded to Roma Dunze could be the guy that's on the outside looking in.
13:57I look at Colson Loveland as I think he's going to be their clear wide receiver one for that team.
14:03And we already saw this happen, guys. Like week 16 on last year, he had a 25.6% target share, 2.49 yards per
14:09route run, 81.6 receiving yards per game, and a 34% first reach here.
14:13If you zoom out and look at those numbers in the totality of the season, amongst tight ends with at least 25
14:20targets, that would have ranked 1st, 4th, 1st, and 1st.
14:23I will be drafting Colson Loveland everywhere this year.
14:25I think he has the upside to be the tight end one overall.
14:29And I want to be very specific about this.
14:32I was all in on Trey Maybride last year.
14:35I'm not saying that Brock Bowers will not be good.
14:38But you look at the quarterback play, you look at this offense, and you look at the usage that we've already seen
14:44in a small sample for Colson Loveland. I think he can be the tight end one this year.
14:49I don't think the conversation is Trey Maybride versus Brock Bowers.
14:53The conversation should be Brock Bowers versus Colson Loveland.
14:55I don't think that's a hot take. People are going to hate it.
14:59I don't think it's hot either, but people are going to think it's hot at all.
15:04So what do you all think about some of these breakouts?
15:07Do you think it's a hot take? I don't know.
15:10D-Ro doesn't. Erickson, do you think it's a hot take?
15:13I don't know. No, I don't think it's a hot take.
15:16I guess my spin on it is I'm looking for the rookie version of Brock Bowers, the rookie version of Sam LaPort.
15:23Like looking for the late round tight end as opposed to the tight end one.
15:27I want to find the guy that we're talking about as Colson Loveland this year.
15:32Yeah, that's what we've been spoiled the last couple of years at tight end.
15:36We got to take last year's Trey Maybride. I will happily take that.
15:40But that's the thing. It's like the last the trend the last couple of years has been really good for the tight end position.
15:47I think where the tight ends landed in the rookie class this year doesn't make him super redraft exciting, at least not, you know, right away.
15:55So that means we're just going to be stuck with all these super talented guys that have come to the league last
16:01two and three years, which is, I think, a renaissance at the tight end position, to be honest.
16:06But again, we love to hear your thoughts. So subscribe to the channel.
16:10Drop your comments below. Hand to fantasypros.com for all the articles and all the information you need to prepare for all of
16:17your drafts of all kinds all year round. And of course, you know, hang out with us here at the tailgate, too.
16:23If you enjoy the three of us bantering and talking football, our new channel, Tailgate NFL on YouTube is for you.
16:30So go over there. Subscribe. We're giving away a Jamar Chase jersey right now for someone who's subscribing and dropping comments.
16:36So go check it out because we've got some really fun content.
16:39It's just football. It's not fantasy. It's not wagering.
16:42It's just everything. It's just us hanging out, talking ball, friends, friendship and football.
16:46What more do you need than that? That'll do it for us.
16:50But the story of the game goes on for Derek Brown and Andrew Erickson.
16:54I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids.
16:56Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
16:59If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.
17:08Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros.
17:11And subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.
17:14Hey, it's Kavino and Rich Davis from Kavino and Rich.
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