4 MUST-TARGET Draft Values | 2026 Fantasy Football Advice (Ep. 2103)
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26 min
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Jul 28, 2026
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Tue, July 28, 2026
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Full transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Must-Have Targets.
0:03It is an often talked about subject and I'm going to give you some must-have targets, but not for me today.
0:09It's going to be from Tara Roberts. Running back, wide receiver, quarterback, and tight end.
0:14Who does Tara believe you have to have? You're going to get those answers at each position.
0:19Only one guy so you know it's really going to be those main targets.
0:23That's what we're discussing here on Fantasy Pros NFL.
0:26Welcome into the Football Podcast. I am Chris Welsh.
0:29That is Tara Roberts. These four players might define you, Tara.
0:32These are the guys when you were given the opportunity to pick only one player at each position.
0:38These are going to be the ones that kind of float over your head.
0:42We talk so much about so many players all season long, but there's always going to be a handful of those that
0:49you're going to have the highest shares of, that you really just never can shut up about.
0:54And this is going to be kind of your defining spot on this.
0:58So how tough was this positionally before we jump into the names, which we're going to do really quick?
1:04How tough was this? Maybe at each position, was there one position that was more difficult to kind of hone in on?
1:11Or were these all pretty simple for you to define, these are the players I have got to have at each position?
1:17You know, running back and wide receiver is pretty straightforward for me.
1:21It was quarterback that was very interested. It made me really think about it.
1:25Yeah, because I've been thinking about my strategy at quarterback and one QB leagues.
1:30And I realized that when I'm picking quarterbacks, I'm not targeting specifically specific high end guys because I like to let the draft fall.
1:37And then whenever I run out of running backs and wide receivers that I'm truly passionate about, I look around and I
1:44say, this is a beautiful place to pick a quarterback.
1:47And then I pick my one. So it made me think about, hey, like if I'm really prioritizing, like if I'm really
1:53saying this is what I want, now I got to identify that one.
1:57So this was fun. This was a good little exercise here.
2:01You took the opposite direction I thought you would take where it's saying like running back and wide receiver is tough because
2:08there's so many names to choose from tight end and quarterback, since it is pretty singular unless you're playing in tight end
2:14premium or super flex that it's just, again, it's just kind of like you hone in.
2:19You got 12 guys or 15 or whatever size league.
2:22You pick that one player. So you actually went the opposite direction.
2:26That's going to be fun. So follow along here if you guys want fantasypros.com slash NFL slash rankings.
2:31If you want to see the rankings that we're going to be referring to, you can see the ECR, the expert consensus
2:38rankings of these players and every single player and how they kind of stack up and the range that Tara has picked for her must target player.
2:47So we're going to start at running back here and you are going with an outside the top 15.
2:52According to ECR, this guy's actually 16 at running back and half PPR here.
2:57And there's been a little bit of dicey questions around has become a really good value.
3:02So your must target running back is? It's the value there with Josh Jacobs here.
3:06Josh Jacobs arrival in Green Bay really shifted the identity of the Packers.
3:10So unless they make a drastic, like aggressively drastic conceptual change in the offense, Jacobs is an absolute steal at his value.
3:17Now we're getting the discount here because as you mentioned, there are some issues here.
3:21One is the legal issue. But when it comes to legal issues like this in the NFL, the process with the NFL
3:28is to let the actual legal system play out.
3:31So often we see if there's a punishment issued, it often comes the next year and would likely affect 2027.
3:37So I feel pretty comfortable moving forward here with Jacobs.
3:40And then the second reason we have is that we've got a discount on the perception of a down year in 2025.
3:47In 2024, Jacobs had just over 300 carries, 15 touchdowns, over 1300 yards, plus his typical receiving work, a good number of checkdowns and one receiving touchdown.
3:55Then in 2025, that number in terms of carries dipped all the way down to 234 carries for just over 900 yards,
4:0213 touchdowns still plus the same receiving work. Naturally, people might be a little inclined to panic and say there's an age issue.
4:09He's starting to decline, but there was a logical reason for the decreased touches and yardage.
4:14The Packers were making a playoff push. Jacobs was trying to play through an injury he should not have.
4:20So unfortunately, those numbers look very weird and worse than they actually were.
4:24When he was healthy, he was pumping out touchdowns at an egregious rate.
4:28He managed 14 still on the season. And prior to his week 11 injury, the man had one game without a rushing
4:34touchdown, one game against Cleveland and multiple, multiple, three multi-touchdown games.
4:38Over that stretch, his worst finish was RB 23 in half PPR.
4:42That was the worst finish, RB 23. He had five top 10 performances.
4:46He was RB 7 over that time period, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game.
4:50He is a factual RB 1 in an offense that leans aggressively on the run game.
4:55It's not even close. They were 7th in rush attempts last year, 27th in pass attempts.
5:00So they could even push the pass volume forward a little bit more and they would still be a run heavy offense.
5:06And the split in 2024 was even more atrocious.
5:09You are drafting him as a mid-tier RB 2 and he is a factual RB 1.
5:14You cannot ask for a better value on that.
5:17So I am buying the discount that we are getting here on Josh Jacobs.
5:21Yeah, very interesting. He comes in at 35 overall, according to ECR, which would put him as like a super late third round pick if that was ADP.
5:30So somewhere between the third and fourth round, he's got really big variants as well on ECR between rankers.
5:35He is ranked as high as eight, which is by a couple different rankers and as low as 27.
5:41So that is the absolute lowest. You can see there's some fears.
5:45I will tell you there is a collective group also of some of our fantasy pros guys that are kind of negative on.
5:52So you are going to be able to be the stamp holder of Josh Jacobs.
5:57So 35 overall, pretty wide variants. I think some of that variance is simply based around some of the legal stuff that
6:03people feel weird about, but it's kind of hard to argue that there isn't going to be some massive production win out there.
6:10All right. You must target running back is in the books.
6:14Wide receiver. This is actually the one when I asked you that question at the top, I was kind of like, this
6:21is the one I think that would open up to being like, how am I supposed to pick one wide receiver?
6:27You did a great job at it. I completely agree with you on this guy.
6:32So your must target wide receiver is? It's a Emeka Egbuka.
6:35I have such a hard time not walking away from drafts without him.
6:39It pains me. I shed a tear when it happens and someone snipes him.
6:43If there is a wide receiver going outside the top 15 that I believe has true breakout potential for top five production
6:50this year, it is a Mecca, Buka. This is a true wide receiver one who we are drafting at great value because
6:57the Tampa Bay offense flailed last season because of poor offensive coaching and then persistent injuries across the board.
7:03In the run game, Baker Mayfield played through injury.
7:05A Mecca, Buka was dealing with a hamstring injury.
7:08The offensive line was injured. It was just a complete mess there.
7:12And because of that, we only got a very small, happy sample size of a Mecca, Buka's true ceiling and what his actual floor is.
7:19We are talking about a player who, in a very chaotic environment last season, still managed to garner 127 targets as a rookie.
7:27And again, he also played through an injury as well.
7:30In the first five weeks of the season, he had five touchdowns and two of those games were over 100 yards.
7:36Now, mind you, that was also against a very tough defensive stretch.
7:40Atlanta, they can clamp down wide receiver ones and wide receiver twos fairly easily.
7:44Houston, the Jets before their trades, obviously Philadelphia and Seattle.
7:47And it's also very important to note that those two 100 yard games were with Mike Evans injured.
7:53So we literally saw him thrive in tandem with Mike Evans.
7:56And then we saw him take over with massive upside with Evans injured as the true wide receiver one under a new offensive vision in 2026.
8:04And with Evans gone and with Chris Godwin, who we do love, he is over 30.
8:09And it's been a while since we've had a full complete season for him.
8:13A Mecca, Buka has the perfect setup for both an extremely high ceiling and a very safe floor.
8:19And yes, he did drop passes, by the way.
8:21He wasn't perfect. It was not as if there were not issues that he had to work through as a rookie, obviously.
8:28But that's something that happens to a lot of players that you will be drafting, some of which you will be drafting
8:35in the first round, FYI, that struggle with drops.
8:38So don't overreact on that one. Buy into the upside that he has in this offense and a bounce back here for Tampa Bay in general.
8:46Yeah, I mean, Amecca, a couple of things to add to.
8:49I'm really interested in him positionally being able to move between X and Z.
8:53Moving him around in the offense a lot more is going to be something.
8:58Him being able to play off ball, I think, could be critical.
9:01Whether it's him and Chris Godwin will probably have some kind of split between that.
9:06Also, he had the hamstring injury last year where he came out so hot and then things really slowed down.
9:12He had that hamstring injury around mid-October. I think it was against the 49ers.
9:16And that obviously played some version of a role.
9:19And you just got general rookies learning the offense.
9:22I think all those things to be said that for him to be able to be a lot more of a focal
9:29point in the offense and be healthy, he seems like one of the prime candidates for a real breakout.
9:34You know, for not what he did in the first half to just be the first half, but to continue over the season.
9:41He is one of all the players on this.
9:44He is the one I completely agree with you.
9:47I am lockstep. And of the rankers here for looking at the balance between the highs and lows, he's got a high of six.
9:54Someone on the fantasy pros ECR has him as wide receiver six this year, and he goes as low as 34.
10:01And there are just interesting fact, there are five people ranking him 30 or further down.
10:06So, you know, that process of like where he can be, there's a big gap.
10:10You guys can see that, by the way, on the ranks when you do it.
10:15There are four fantasy pros people that are more mainstays here that have him higher than consensus.
10:20Consensus, that's Fitzy, that's Debro, that's me, and that's you.
10:23We are the four that are higher than consensus, and he's a guy you kind of continuously want to move through.
10:30So I completely agree with you on that. It seems like he can be the major target in this offense, and I just want my shares for Mecca.
10:38The only problem is, is like, I've been dealt with the situation of like him and Jalen Waddell are both sitting out
10:45there, and I've got to pick between one of those two guys.
10:49Would love to have kind of a sandwich pick, like a Mecca from the overall perspective.
10:54Actually, let me look here, because I would love to be in a spot.
10:58He's at 39. You kind of would probably have to be like the back end of the third round where we talked
11:05about Josh Jacobs, and you might have to double tap.
11:08So either it's Jacobs, a Mecca, or for me personally, I'm looking at maybe wanting like a Mecca in the third and Waddell in the fourth.
11:16Get your guys sometimes, right, Tara? Don't worry about ADP.
11:19Yeah, exactly. That's where we roll with it. All right, we're going to get into the tough spots for Tara, specifically talking
11:25about quarterback and who's that must target. But before we do, giveaways.
11:29You guys love some free stuff, and we're going to give it to you.
11:33We've got two giveaways actually going on. If you want a chance to win a $50 Fantasy Pros shop code, you can
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11:46This is going to be your opportunity. Here's what you do.
11:49Subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel. I assume if you're here doing that, and then drop a comment.
11:55Something cool. What are your must draft targets? Do you love specifically one of these, or do you have some debate on it?
12:02Whatever you do dropping in the comments, as long as you're not awful, of course, you're going to be in the running.
12:09And we'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on notifications so you know when
12:16new videos are up, and you can claim your prize.
12:19$50 at the Fantasy Pros store or a full-year premium over on BP, on Betting Pros.
12:24That is pretty, pretty sweet. All right. You specifically said quarterback was a tough one for you in picking the only one guy that you can lock into.
12:32There's the debate of the high-end guys. You know, are you going to be an elite quarterback drafter in the first couple?
12:39I think most people want to be on the back end of being a late quarterback drafter.
12:44And then there's that weird middle gray ground, Tara.
12:47So which one are you going to sit in, and who is your must target quarterback for the 2026 season?
12:53Yeah, I'm kind of in that mid little gray area there, because as I mentioned, like I like to let the draft fall to me.
13:01We've talked about how the top half of the draft there, or the top, you know, a couple rounds there, there's so much elite talent at running back.
13:09And there's wide receivers that we want as well.
13:12So as you start prioritizing and pick and choosing, it makes it tough to say, well, I want to, I want to
13:19grab two high-end running backs, but I also need a wide receiver one.
13:23And then I also want Josh Allen, or I also want Drake May.
13:27You know, it's tough. So it does tend to push quarterback back further for me.
13:31And I try to push it back as much as possible.
13:35But then there are times where I'm looking at the draft board, and I don't feel super passionate about a running back or receiver.
13:42And that often happens when you get in that middle area.
13:46And that's a great time to pivot and say, okay, now is it time to take the value on one of those
13:52low-end QB1s that have legitimate QB1 overall upside? And that is Trevor Lawrence for me on brand, of course, here.
13:58But I genuinely believe in Liam Cohen specifically as an offensive visionary.
14:02And what we saw from Trevor Lawrence in his first year under a highly competent coaching staff is just the beginning there.
14:09It took a second for them to get on track, but once they did, the fantasy production was actually insane.
14:15Trevor Lawrence was the overall QB1 in the back half of the season last year, weeks 10 through 18.
14:21And some of that definitely was facilitated by an easier schedule.
14:24But he did have specifically a 30-plus fantasy point game against Denver.
14:28And here's the good news. The Jags boast one of the best strength of schedules for quarterbacks.
14:33And the depth that they have at receiver makes it so that those difficult matchups are far less daunting.
14:39You can take on a difficult Denver secondary because if they clamp down on Brian Thomas Jr.
14:44and Jacoby Myers, Liam Cohen will just adjust the game plan and send 10 targets through Parker Washington.
14:50But what really took Trevor Lawrence's game to another level was the uptick in rushing upside.
14:55Lawrence had a career high of nine rushing touchdowns with 82 attempts.
14:58This was a part of his game that we all knew existed.
15:02We saw it in college and previous regimes never really took advantage of it.
15:06But if Lawrence continues to run to this level, he has true throughout the course of an entire season.
15:12Overall, QB1 upside. We have been duped before by a strong finish by Trevor Lawrence and drafting him and ended up with a mediocre season.
15:20But this is finally it, guys. Liam Cohen, Liam Cohen, Liam Cohen has taken Trevor Lawrence to the promised land and he is not turning back.
15:28So we're talking about upside and four, right? Because again, looking at last season, the first four games of the season, after
15:34the first four games of the season, actually, Trevor Lawrence had literally just one game where he finished below QB 14.
15:41Again, after the first four games of the season, literally one game where he finished below QB 14.
15:46And that was against Houston. Very understandable there. So it's a very safe pick with big upside.
15:52And I love the range that it's going in.
15:54I like when you said his name multiple times.
15:57It was like when you look into a mirror and you're just manifesting, you're like Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence.
16:04And then all of a sudden it's QB1 appears.
16:06That's what's going to happen. He's got a pretty wide variance.
16:10Highest is QB5 by a ranker. By the way, I'm just telling you the highs and lows.
16:15His ECR is at quarterback nine overall. And that is majority of rankers have him there.
16:20But he is high as five and as low as 16.
16:23And you're going to see sometimes that variance is floating out there.
16:27But he comes off at 73 overall in the QB9 range.
16:30If you do believe that that upside really does exist where he can teeter around that quarterback one range, I know he
16:37isn't the name value of Daniels or Burrow. Or frankly, I think Jalen Hurts is weirding people out.
16:42I'm like, will he run more? Like, can he still be in there?
16:46But Lawrence comes at such a low cost. He kind of does sit in that like late quarterback range.
16:52Obviously, I think the true late quarterback might be more like outside the top 100 or 90 or something like that for people.
16:59But, you know, the upside there, QB9 to get outside of your top 70 picks, almost at your top 75 picks.
17:06You can see the upside. I will say, I don't know which direction it's going to go because I think it's fair
17:13to probably have some touchdown, negative touchdown regression. Specifically, when you bring in Chris Rodriguez, that seems like there is your full on bullish goal line back.
17:21But at the same time, though, knowing that Trevor Lawrence can do that, there's a lot of like gadget gimmick stuff that
17:28they can run where everybody is going to assume, hey, Chris Rodriguez is in on goal line and they're going to be
17:34able to, you know, play action out. And even if he gets into that five, six, seven rushing touchdown range, it's going
17:41to be hard for him to be outside of a top 10 quarterback.
17:45Like there seems like there's a lot of floor with an offense that has the upside of him being like a top four, three, maybe even two quarterback.
17:54And I know Erickson is with you here as far as him having the potential to be the QB one.
18:00So you're getting a really good cost. You've built this out.
18:03You are getting kind of a third, fourth round in your quarterback and wide receiver.
18:08You're getting really late cost on your quarterback. And that's going to take us to the final one.
18:13Where do you sit on your must target tight ends?
18:16We know many of the guys here are into giving me nothing less than Warren.
18:21I got to have Lovell and I got to have Bowers and McBride.
18:25Some just say, if we don't get those, screw it.
18:28We're going to the back end of the draft and there's some really good value there.
18:33And then again, like quarterback, there's that middle ground.
18:36Which one are you going to play in? Which pool with your must target tight end?
18:41So for me, there are seven tight ends with I feel very comfortable with targeting.
18:45And the back end of that is Kyle Pitts.
18:48That's the guy right here. Yeah. You know, if you can grab one of the high end ones, if you have the ability, 100% do it.
18:56I do when I can. But if you have to push it back further and you don't want to push it all
19:03the way back to where you're trying to stream and making it work with Mark Andrews and such, then I think that
19:09Kyle Pitts is a nice little happy medium there.
19:12I mean, let's start off by putting some concerns at ease here.
19:16You may be worried because we know that the 2025 numbers for Kyle Pitts were aggressively boosted by the combination of the
19:23injury to Drake London and Kirk Cousins being Kirk Cousins and being beautifully tied in friendly, much tied in friendlier than Michael Pennix.
19:30That is very valid there. But Kyle Pitts is a lot for 100 plus targets again this season.
19:35And now those 100 plus targets will be more evenly spread throughout the season as a whole because of the new coaching regime.
19:42I have endless beef with Kevin Stefanski. It will never end.
19:46But the one thing that I do not beef with him about is the way that he targets tight ends.
19:52He has targeted tight ends at the most ridiculous clip throughout his tenure as head coach.
19:57And if you look in recent years, you could say, well, Tara, of course, you're going to target Harold Fannan Jr.
20:03He's fantastic. And Jerry Judy is a mess. So what would you expect?
20:07Yes, for sure. But Kevin Stefanski did that throughout his entire time at Cleveland.
20:11It didn't matter who the tight ends were. And it didn't matter who the wide receivers were.
20:17He was sending 30% plus of the targets to tight ends.
20:20So when you have a highly talented tight end who can take a good chunk of that percentage himself, that's how you get the big boom year.
20:28There is no competition in the receiving core besides Drake London.
20:32Kyle Pitts is the second look followed very closely by Bijon Robinson, kind of one-two there in terms of the second look behind Drake London.
20:39And it will be a very tight funnel between those three players.
20:43And while I do have some concerns that Pennix, if he does start, is obviously not the best option in the world for Pitts.
20:50If Tua does start here and manages to hold on to the job, he is far tight end friendlier for tight ends than Michael Pennix.
20:58And in terms of value, Pitts is the guy, the last guy, again, that you can draft that is likely to get 100 plus targets.
21:06After that, you get into Sam Laporta, who was taking a backseat to Jamison Williams, an injured Kittle, an aging, Travis Kelsey, a low volume, Dalton Kincaid.
21:14So those, and then you get a lot of guys that are very touchdown dependent.
21:18So Kyle Pitts gives you that safe floor in terms of pure volume, but still with the potential upside if everything pans
21:25out in terms of the quarterback situation to have clear top three, four, five production.
21:30And he comes in at 83 or 82 overall, apologies, at tight end seven on ECR among all rankers.
21:36And Tara's living up to it. Tara's one of the higher.
21:39You've got him higher than his consensus ranks. You can find that in the ranks here.
21:44The variance, it's pretty wide. There's one person that has it tied in three.
21:48There's a lot of fives that are in there and he does go as low as 14.
21:53So he almost doesn't fall out of like the starting tight end range.
21:57Obviously some non-believers in there, but what say you guys?
22:00What's interesting that you did with this exercise as well is you put together very manageable players that can be targeted by most people.
22:08And then you can still get your studs, you know, third, fourth round, as we talked about with the running back and the wide receiver.
22:16However, when we're talking about Josh Jacobs and Emeka Egbuka, quarterback of Trevor Lawrence and tight end of Kyle Pitts, both in
22:22that kind of like six, seven, eighth round range that you can put those guys together and you can build and construct a big team.
22:30Well, guess what? You guys can also do that.
22:33Do the cheat sheet. You can create a cheat sheet of some of the guys we've talked about, some of your favorite
22:39rankers, and you can put that in when you're testing out and syncing your leagues over on the draft simulator.
22:46You can see how these work out. These four targets, put them with a roster that you normally construct.
22:51Put them into different spots in the draft and see if you like your teams with these must-have players.
22:57But make sure that you have them and make sure that you draft them.
23:02So that you like them. Who are you guys' must-draft targets?
23:05Drop it in the comments below. If you've got one of your favorites, also put Emeka Egbuka's mind.
23:10You guys can put what your favorite draft target is in there as well, and it'll give you an opportunity to win
23:17some cool stuff like we said, the $50 store code and the one-year premium subscription over at Betting Pros.
23:23Not too shabby. That's going to do it for us here.
23:26For Tara Roberts, I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys for hanging out with us, and we'll talk to you next time for more fantasy football.
23:34Peace. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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