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0:20Hello, everybody. Welcome into the FantasyPros - Fantasy Football Podcast.
0:23I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Andrew Erickson on this Tuesday morning.
0:25We are talking buys and sells for wide receivers and tight ends.
0:29If you missed it, we already did the running backs and quarterbacks version of the show earlier, so be sure to check
0:35that out on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcasts.
0:38Erickson, we're talking some receivers and tight ends, some players you are really excited to talk about on the show.
0:43On the running back version of the show, I threw out a running back to sell that you were surprised by.
0:49I'm really interested to hear what I had to say.
0:51You're doing the same. I'm very curious to hear more about this wide receiver that you want to be selling here.
0:57So we'll get to that a little bit later in the show.
1:00Before we dive in, first of all, just a reminder to everybody that our consensus rankings can be found at fantasypros.com.
1:06You can navigate to the rest-of-season rankings there as well if you want to know where these guys line up in terms of the rest-of-season stuff.
1:13Before we dive in, though, trade strategy, advice, sort of a macro-level approach to trading this week heading into week seven.
1:18And Erickson, what do you have for us? One man's trash is another man's treasure.
1:22Or she. Or woman. The way I look at some of these sell-low type of deals, I think that there is something
1:28to an advantage where if you trade a player that the stock is really low on, think about like O'Mearian Hampton, right?
1:34Nobody wants this guy. Jalen Watt, nobody wants this player, right?
1:37How do I get rid of these players? How do you get value out of these players, right?
1:42You're not necessarily expecting them to turn around anytime soon, but I think the angle that you want to approach it with
1:48is I need a receiver or I need a running back or I need a bi-week fill-in.
1:52So you trade your trash with some of these players and their value for another manager's trash, but at a position that you actually need.
1:59Like that's a deal that I think you can get done while selling low with some of these players because you may
2:05have them on your bench and you can't use them.
2:08But it's like, look, man, my running back is such in dire straits right now.
2:12I would take O'Mearian Hampton. Like he could score a touchdown.
2:15Sure. I'll take him. So if I can trade my Jalen Waddle, who's doing nothing for me at receiver, trading for O'Mearian
2:20Hampton, who at least is a running back. Okay.
2:23That's maybe a deal that you can get done.
2:25So kind of thinking a little bit more outside the box in terms of addressing your needs and not making everything so
2:31player focused, I think is an interesting strategy to use in some of your trades.
2:35So a mutual selling low of players. Yes. But benefiting the team needs.
2:39Yeah. In the deal. Do you feel, do you do these sorts of trades a lot?
2:43Yeah. I wish I did more, honestly. I think that's kind of something that, and that's why I wanted to bring it
2:49to the table this week with the trade advice, because I don't think it's used enough where we all know.
2:54Right. And that's why we're not talking about like, oh, Jalen Waddle is my wide receiver to sell.
2:59Right. And then the first comment is like, to who?
3:02To what? Yeah. Well, if you sell him for an equally bad running back, that is also underwhelming dramatically.
3:07Then maybe it's a deal that you can get done.
3:09I know that we sometimes see this in the real NFL where it's like, I'll trade you my wide receiver bust for
3:15your wide receiver bust and maybe they'll be better.
3:18Just a change of scenery. Yeah. A change of scenery.
3:20Now, that's not the reason why these players will perform better.
3:23It's like, well, I'm not on Erickson's fantasy team anymore.
3:26So now I'm going to start to perform at a high level.
3:29But you catch my drift, right? Where just fixing needs on your team.
3:33I need more running backs on my team. I just need bodies because by weeks are coming up and sometimes you need roster spots to fill.
3:40So understandably, like Waddle and Hampton, these are the guys I'm just kind of throwing out as examples because I know like
3:46obviously highly drafted players that have very underwhelmed versus expectation.
3:48They can still provide some value in by weeks when you have to fill a roster of multiple flex spots and multiple wide receivers.
3:55So if you have a hole at one of those spots, I think that is the interesting way to approach it.
4:00By weeks aren't just coming up, Erickson. They're here.
4:03I mean, we are. Exactly. We are in the by weeks time at the time of the season.
4:08It's like I think of in Pirates of the Caribbean where he goes, you best start believing in ghost stories.
4:13Miss Turner, you're in one. Like you best be ready for by weeks because you're in it.
4:18Like they are here. And I can already see the meme going up on the fantasy pros account of this, of this ideology in an image.
4:25I'm ready for it. You got to do it.
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5:08Erickson, do it. You got to do it. Wide receiver to buy.
5:11I knew where you were going before you even sent it in.
5:15Who are you buying? A.J. Brown, A.J.B. wide receiver one season is delayed slightly, but never denied.
5:19So we are going to be buying the Patriots number one wide receiver.
5:23Now, what were the expectations heading into last week?
5:25I had no idea. I didn't know if he was going to play a full allotment of snaps.
5:30I didn't know if he was going to be on a pitch count.
5:33That was not the case whatsoever. He ran around 100% of the Drake made dropbacks.
5:37So the role was exceptional for A.J. Brown. He had 10 targets, 31.3% target share.
5:41That was the most targets by anyone on the Patriots so far this season.
5:45So he misses all this time and he immediately comes back in his first game and immediately reestablish himself as the number
5:51one alpha in this offense, which had not been the case whatsoever.
5:54It wasn't like someone else was absorbing these targets.
5:57It was all spread out between Dobbs and Holland and Douglas and all the different pass catchers for the Patriots.
6:02But once A.J. Brown was healthy enough to come back and play, it was all right back to what we were going
6:08to plan to do to start the year when he's going to be the alpha and get peppered with targets in this Josh McDaniels offense.
6:15Now, the usage was excellent. The production was nowhere near it.
6:18It was really bad for A.J. Brown. He was dropping passes.
6:21It looked like a guy who had missed the last four weeks, and it looked like someone that was clearly knocking off some of the rust.
6:28But I say that as a encouraging standpoint because it wasn't that he looked like he was injured.
6:32Like he looked like he was still going full go, maybe testing certain things out, making sure the ankle was good.
6:38But the fact that he played all of the snaps suggested to me like, OK, great.
6:42He made through his first game back, didn't have any relapses with his injury or his ankle, and he's going to be good to go.
6:49And he's going to play better on Thursday night against Chicago Bears now that he has a full game under his belt
6:55after missing so much time over a month of NFL game action.
6:58So to me, this is just a screaming quintessential by low wide receiver.
7:02Again, you're getting all the usage. You're getting all the area.
7:05It's he still had two reds on targets when over four on third and fourth down like Drake May was looking for
7:10him in critical situations and he did not deliver.
7:13But I don't care about that stuff like buying like drops are an indicator that the guy's getting open and that there's future production in upcoming games.
7:20I think that's going to be the case here with A.J.
7:23Because, dude, I I'm salivating over this schedule for the Patriots that they have coming up.
7:27And I know I mentioned it when we talked about Drake May as a bye after I think week two.
7:33You have the Bears on the road on Thursday night.
7:35Then you have the Dolphins. Then you have the Packers.
7:38Then you have the Lions. Then they have the Patriots have their bye week bills chargers.
7:42Like this is one of the best schedules rest of season that you can look at for receivers.
7:47Let me interrupt you and actually ask about the schedule because I think it's a really fascinating situation where, yes, the next what is it?
7:54Seven weeks are dynamite as a schedule. And I totally agree.
7:57And I was going to bring this up if you didn't.
8:00They're awesome. After that, it does get a lot tougher.
8:02You know, week 14 on is Minnesota, Kansas City at the Jets, Denver.
8:06You like that second Miami game. He doesn't get during the fancy regular season.
8:10That's week 18. So when you think about a player like A.J.
8:13Brown and you're making a trade like this, are you more?
8:16And I think I know the answer to this, but are you more focused on, hey, the next six weeks are awesome,
8:22but it gets harder after than that? Or are you worried about, hey, I'm trading for this guy who now during the
8:28actual fantasy playoffs when you go to win your league is going to be facing some tougher matchups?
8:32Well, I think that I value the schedule immediately a little bit more because I know what those defenses look like right
8:38now, because we talk about those future matchups as, oh, this is a tough matchup.
8:42This is a tough matchup. We those defenses could look totally different by the time we actually get there.
8:47So that's one reason I would press pause. I also think that you abide by you got to get there first, right?
8:53I feel like at least A.J. Brown can help you get there and then you can kind of make ways with whatever you need to do.
9:00So I'm paying more attention to what happened in week six where he got all the usage you could ask for underwhelmed in the box score.
9:07But everything to say, I mean, what he was negative 12 fantasy points under expectation in week six, just how bad that he performed.
9:14But I think the eyeball test was this guy is playing hurt or anything like that.
9:18I thought that he looked OK in that capacity.
9:20I think it's going to only improve as the season gets better.
9:24And he's clearly the alpha in his passing game and attaching him to Drake May over the next seven weeks.
9:29If I can get a wide receiver one, which you're not going to have to pay for to get A.J.
9:34Brown, in my opinion, at least. I think he's worth buying.
9:37Yeah, it's used kind of my own point against me because I've definitely brought this up over the years on this show
9:43with you that those late season defensive schedules, like you just don't know those teams that they're like, would it shock you
9:49if the Broncos kind of fell apart this year and weren't in the playoffs by then?
9:53And the defense just isn't playing as hard and doesn't look as good.
9:57Like, no, that wouldn't shock me. The Jets obviously could fall into that bucket as well in week 16.
10:02And then all of a sudden that looks like a really nice fantasy playoff schedule.
10:06So it's a good point. Put your money where your mouth is.
10:09Where is A.J. Brown ranked rest of season for you?
10:12So I have him wide receiver 16 right now.
10:14He is wedged right between or right after the two Packers wide receivers, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
10:19But I think I actually think that's too low.
10:22I think I'm surprised you have him at only 16.
10:24I thought he was gonna be higher for you.
10:27Honestly, I mean, I guess I want to see a little bit more.
10:30Maybe I need to move him up. I mean, I'm already kind of considering because the two guys that I was looking
10:36at in terms of trading for A.J. Brown, and I can probably just make this update live would be Ted Arroa and Garrett Wilson.
10:42Like those would be the two guys that I would look to trade.
10:46Those guys are 14 and 15 in ECR, by the way.
10:49So where is A.J. Brown in ECR? 19. Yeah.
10:51So you're still ahead. Yes. But those would be the two guys I would look to.
10:56I just thought you were gonna be more ahead.
10:58I just think like, like we were really excited about this fit going into the season.
11:02And if you're telling me that like the usage is there and you felt like watching him eye test, I didn't watch
11:08the game as close as you did, but watching the eye test, you didn't feel like he was that limited.
11:14Then like, okay, why are we not just reverting back to closer to what our expectations were before the season, which would
11:19have been a lot higher than wide receiver 16.
11:22At least for me it was. I thought he was clearly like, you know, like wide receiver 10.
11:27I forget exactly where I had him, but he was definitely inside the top 12 for me.
11:31So if it's like, okay, the usage is back.
11:34Drake Mays back to being very good and it's a nice schedule and we think he's healthy.
11:38Then to me, like he should be ahead of Ted around McMillan and Garrett Wilson.
11:42He should be like the problem is then you start to get into the guys who have elevated their games this season
11:48already, like Parker Washington and Christian Watson who were ranked behind A.J.
11:51Brown before, but now have really earned that spot inside the top 12 or 13.
11:55So that's to me where it gets kind of tricky.
11:58But I feel like he should at least be inside the top 15, like if not a little bit higher.
12:03Like would you rather have A.J. Brown or Justin Jefferson rest of the season?
12:07If you really believe A.J. Brown is healthy and getting this usage, like, I think there's a really strong case for A.J.
12:13Brown. And Justin Jefferson is wide receiver nine in the consensus rest of the season ranking.
12:17So to me, like again, health is a question mark.
12:20If you don't think he's that, if you think that's a, if that's, let me rephrase.
12:24I mean, he ran all the rounds and then he was out there.
12:28Yeah. Like, like, like, like, boy, would I be happy to go trade for him?
12:32So, uh, and in fact, I can't really trade for him because I simply have him in a lot of leagues and
12:38he's been sitting on IR for the season for me.
12:40So I'm not trading for him. I'm just finally elevating him and activating him off, off IR.
12:45This is a, this is a, this is a moot point for a lot of people that have followed my content because I told everyone to draft A.J.
12:52Brown. So it's like sick. Like, I'm just excited about him finally performing.
12:56And I think that he is going to perform at a high level starting on Thursday night.
13:00Yeah. My player to buy is actually one spot behind A.J.
13:03Brown in the rankings is Jalen Coker. Now the caveat here is when I put this sheet together last night, he was a few spots lower.
13:10And that was part of my analysis was that he was, I think he was a wide receiver 24.
13:15Um, when I put the sheet together late last night in the consensus rest of season rankings.
13:20And I was like, I just felt like that was too low.
13:23He's now wide receiver 20, which is starting to get more into the range that I think is appropriate.
13:28I still think he's worth a buy, but I just wanted to highlight that caveat for, for me, including him here.
13:34Um, he, I just think he's a really good player.
13:37And I feel like there are always these players who are number two in their offense, whether because by reputation, that's what
13:43we thought going in because of draft capital. Obviously you could hardly have a bigger disparity in draft capital than between him and Teddero McMillan.
13:49Um, but I, I always want to be on the lookout for these guys who we've seen enough, like stop holding the
13:55draft capital against them or anything like that. They just are good players.
13:59And I think we've gotten to that point as a consensus in the industry and people watching the games that Jalen Coker is good.
14:05I don't know if we've gotten to that point of how good he is.
14:09I think he's a really good player. And I think the Panthers should have two receivers inside the top 20 of the rest of season rankings right now.
14:16Like that is not too many. Whereas, you know, we typically reserve that for the Bengals with their two superstars or the
14:22Cowboys or the Eagles, you know, go before the start of the season.
14:26Like the, you know, when they said AJ Brown, like those teams that like, Oh, they have these two true studs.
14:31I think the Panthers have two true studs, honestly.
14:34And I think Jalen Coker is undervalued. And I think because of the name value, I think because he's the number two
14:40in his offense, I mean, by name, right? He had 13 targets in week six.
14:44Like he's still getting great usage. Like I, I think that he is undervalued, even though he is now inside the top 20.
14:50And I think he's going to be better than that over the course of the rest of the season.
14:55Now that he's healthy and the offense, I think is going to continue to play well.
14:59Bryce Young appears to have taken a step forward.
15:02You know, he has the benefit of Tedderall McMillan taking some of that defensive attention away.
15:06I just think these guys are going to be really mutually beneficial to each other.
15:10And I think you're going to be really happy with either of them.
15:13Jalen Coker is more affordable. Again, it was a little bit more affordable, you know, prior to the sort of the change
15:19last night, if you're going by the consensus rankings.
15:22But at the end of the day, this is kind of a long-winded answer.
15:25At the end of the day, like I think he is undervalued because of his place in the pecking order in this offense.
15:32And I think that's wrong. I don't really have much to add with Coker.
15:35I think that he's been a fantastic pick. He's been very, very productive.
15:39He's a top 12 wide receiver in points per game this year.
15:42Again, he's missed some time with some injuries. And that's one of the other things that he has dealt with through his
15:48early part to his NFL career is he has been banged up.
15:51He's banged up this year. One thing on the note too, and I noticed this while looking at the fantasy pro strength
15:57of schedule tool, Panther schedule gets tougher. It does.
15:59It's not as much cupcake matchups that Bryce Young has faced to start the season now.
16:04Again, still giving credit to Bryce Young playing at the best NFL level that he has played at since being drafted.
16:09It concerns me when you look at week 15, or excuse me, week 16 at the Steelers, week 17 Seattle.
16:15Right? Like that's no one's idea of like, oh, this is a great like run for the fantasy championships is Jalen Coker.
16:21That's not ideal. But to your point about like, I mean, upcoming, it's like Buccaneers, Packers, Broncos, obviously not ideal, but like Saints, Ravens, etc.
16:27It's a version of AJ Brown where yes, the late season schedule doesn't look great right now.
16:32Who knows what it'll look like by the time you get there.
16:35But the upcoming schedule, I don't think it's that bad.
16:38Like it's the late season schedule. Like that Minnesota game in week 13 onward.
16:42Okay. Yes. That gets a little tougher. The next six weeks, next five weeks.
16:45I'm like these matchups. Maybe they're not as easy as they were in the first month of the season, but I think they're fine.
16:52And I mean, the Eagles on paper are not really a great matchup.
16:55And Jalen Coker had 13 targets, six catches, 97 yards.
16:58They can't stop slot receivers. That was the one prop that I hit last week.
17:02It was Jalen Coker over. Just in general, like, I mean, like the Eagles defense, like his talent is kind of what I meant.
17:08You're right. But yeah, I mean, it's three kind of full games he's played this season.
17:13Those three games he has nine, nine and ten, excuse me, nine, nine and 13 targets in those games.
17:18Eight, eight and six catches, averaging something like 95 yards a game in those, across those three full games.
17:23Again, he's a good player who I think is being valued as a number two in the offense.
17:28And I think he's essentially a second number one.
17:30I think Jalen Coker's really good. Yeah, I remember.
17:32And this is not, obviously this is before the injury for McLaurin, but remember we were debating Coker versus McLaurin.
17:38Yeah. A couple weeks back. He's jumped up a lot since then in the consensus rankings.
17:42And I still don't think it's enough. Again, when he was wide as sure 24 last night, I was going to come
17:48in here and be like, this is like one of the most obvious buys, you know, of the season.
17:53He's now getting more into that range where he should be.
17:56But still, I think, I mean, he's in that range with the other number twos, right?
18:00If you look at wide receiver 16 through 21 in the consensus rankings, set aside A.J.
18:05Brown, who's in that ranking. In order, it's Matthew Golden, George Pickens, T.
18:08Higgins, Jalen Coker, Devontae Smith. Smith is no longer the number two, but he has been in the past.
18:13Those other three are all guys who are quote unquote number twos in their offenses.
18:17And I'm really glad to see Coker in this range now.
18:20I think by name value and reputation that you can still trade for him as if he's lesser than these guys.
18:26And I don't think he is. I think he's absolutely on their level.
18:29So did you give a player name? I really didn't.
18:32One that I think is interesting is actually like back to back is Devontae Smith.
18:36I'm curious who you would rather have rest of season, given that Jalen Hurts is now out for the year for the Eagles.
18:42I think that's kind of a fascinating one. And I also was looking at maybe Michael Wilson, who has not been all
18:48that good in the two games without Marvin Harrison Jr.
18:51But I think you could kind of go in either direction on.
18:54So those are two at the wide receiver position that I think are kind of interesting.
18:58Running back again, it's always so hard. Like I'd trade pretty much anybody outside of the top 15 to get him.
19:04I don't know if you can do that, just given the position and sort of the disparity there.
19:09I think maybe like honestly like a Bucky Irving for Jalen Coker.
19:12If you could do that, I think I would be interested in doing that.
19:16Again, if I was able to move a running back, which not everybody is able to do.
19:20Do you trade one of your injured trio? Barkley.
19:23Barkley, Love, or Hall. Hall and just kind of like I'm done with these guys.
19:27Like I just, I don't know when they're coming back.
19:29Don't know how effective they're going to be. But I know what I'm getting in Jalen Coker.
19:34I'd be open to it. You know what I would definitely do is the guy right after those three in consensus, which is Josh Jacobs.
19:41I don't know if you could do that, but if somebody is going to buy into, oh, he's coming in and it's
19:46just going to be the bell cow that we expected.
19:49And now like, I'm just going to have elite Josh Jacobs going forward.
19:53I would move Jacobs for Coker really easily. Okay.
19:55Yeah. Especially because you mean, Josh Jacobs costs you nothing to draft really.
19:59You've had him on your roster and it's like, if I can flip him now for a receiver that I feel like
20:04can be top 15 if he stays healthy rest of season.
20:07Then yeah, that seems like a good move to make.
20:10This is Pat Fitzmaurice. I hope you enjoy this episode of the show, which is sponsored by Accredited Debt Relief.
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21:49Find out what your players are really worth with the new Fantasy Pro's trade market values report.
21:53Compare player values from actual trades across thousands of fantasy leagues against Fantasy Pro's expert consensus values.
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22:04Make smarter trades using real market data at fantasypros.com slash markets.
22:07That's fantasypros.com slash markets. Erickson, your wide receiver to sell.
22:10Christian Watson, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers.
22:12So this was not a player that I had considered talking about or bringing up on this segment, but it was actually,
22:18shout out to Hammy Takes on Discord. He was the one that kind of brought it to my eyes about maybe Watson is a potential sell high candidate.
22:26Because I'm going to kind of get questions about him in terms of how he's being deployed in this offense alongside Matthew Golden.
22:32So it's kind of interesting because you look at the way that they've been used.
22:36So Matthew Golden leads the Packers to targets. Like when it comes to just like sheer volume, he has been the number
22:42one wide receiver in the Packers offense, not Christian Watson.
22:44Now, Christian Watson has been more efficient. He has more yards.
22:47And they basically are tied in terms of the amount of catches that they had.
22:51Although Matthew Golden, you know, catches some of those drop passes from Sunday Night Football.
22:55He is clearly ahead in terms of catches as well.
22:58So Matthew Golden, in terms of his usage in the offense, again, he has a 25% target share.
23:03That's top five this season. He's wide receiver five in expected points per game.
23:07He's wide receiver 11 in actual points per game.
23:09Whereas Watson, Watson's a top five receiver in points per game, but he's only wide receiver 11 in expected points per game.
23:15Because he only has a 21% target share this season.
23:18That ranks 19th among all wide receivers. So, again, stealing this at your playbook, worm.
23:22Christian Watson is valued as wide receiver 9 in the ECR rankings.
23:25When his target share is outside the top 15, his expected points per game is also outside the top 10.
23:30The Packers offensive line, to me, feels like a ticking time bomb.
23:33How sustainable is them just dropping back to throw bombs away with Jordan Love the rest of the season when he's facing
23:39one of the highest pressure rates he's ever faced in his NFL career.
23:43And the thing that scares me about this Packers offense overall, again, not this week against the Lions, right?
23:48Because you're looking at, okay, hold them at least for one more week because he's facing Detroit.
23:53But what if the Packers don't be fun anymore because they get Josh Jacobs back?
23:57What if they don't be fun anymore? I know, it's just the way you phrased that.
24:01But that's the only way that I could explain it because it's so concerning to me where this Packers offense has been a wagon, right?
24:08It's been so awesome. You have a concentrated target share between the top three guys.
24:12But now with Jacobs back in the fold, does the floor go back to, well, we're going to run back what we did last year?
24:18It's more Jacobs in the offensive line, I think.
24:21Sorry to cut you off. I was just going to say, I don't think Jordan Love cares about the offensive line.
24:26I think he is wired to go bombs away no matter what.
24:29But I think it's, oh, we're now going back to pounding the rock over and over again with Josh Jacobs is what would scare me.
24:36Well, in an effort to make sure that Jordan Love stays healthy and upright, right?
24:40Again, like Jordan Love being efficient as a passer is nothing new.
24:43It's just now it's coming more in bunches because they're throwing the ball a lot more.
24:48Their defense is also playing a lot better too.
24:50We all saw what they did to Dallas. So are they playing as many high-scoring shootouts?
24:54That remains to be seen. Would you rather have Watson or Golden?
24:58I have the rank back-to-back because right now the thing is like I would rather have Golden Plus than Watson.
25:03But I know that the market is going to view Watson higher because Watson's a better player, right?
25:08I'm not trying to – because I don't want to discredit Christian Watson for what he's doing this year, man.
25:13He was one of my favorite receivers to draft him and Parker Washington.
25:17I wrote a wide receiver breakout article and those are the two guys I featured on it, right?
25:21Watson and Parker Washington. And so I don't love bringing him up here, but I thought that Hammy Takes brought up a
25:27lot of interesting points in Discord about, hey, like this is like prime time to sell because everybody wants Christian Watson, right?
25:33But like he doesn't even lead his team in targets.
25:36And I think that that matters, especially when you're looking at the raw passing volume.
25:40Is that going to come down potentially? The schedule after the Lions.
25:43Carolina, Patriots, Vikings. That's not nearly as fun as it's been the last couple weeks when it's been the Cowboys and the Detroit Lions.
25:50It does get better late, I will say. You know, he gets the Saints, Buffalo, Miami, Chicago is weeks 13 through 16.
25:56So it does actually finish strong again just for what it's worth.
25:59Week 17 is Texans. Yeah. In Lambeau. Like, again, another spot where Watson has been dominating with efficiency and big plays.
26:04And if the offensive changes just a little bit and it takes a little bit off the top for Christian Watson, when
26:10he's not leading the team in targets, Tucker Craft is only getting healthier and healthier.
26:14I just think, again, going back to the Mike Evans sell from last year or from last week, I didn't want to
26:20sell Mike Evans for pennies on the dollar. Like, I'm like, get a King's ransom for Mike Evans.
26:25And if you end up trading before we play it on Sunday night, you're probably feeling, or Monday night, you're probably feeling pretty good that you moved him.
26:33And with Christian Watson, I think there's an argument to be made where, I mean, he's valued as wide receiver nine when
26:38his teammate is seeing more volume in the offense than he is and is seeing more expected fantasy points per game than he is.
26:45And if you play out the rest of the season, would you be surprised if Matthew Golden outscores Watson?
26:50No. The rest of the season? You can't be at this point.
26:53So if that's the case, why not cash out for the quote-unquote 1B receiver on the Packers offense?
26:58You're kind of winning me over here, man. I thought it was really good.
27:02That's why I really thought I tried to really dive into it because, like, there's a lot of sense and logic here.
27:08And, again, I know Debro is falling out of his chair right now listening to this because he knows he loves Christian Watson.
27:14And so do I. But just the more – Half his games this season, he has four or fewer receptions.
27:19Like, it has not been the volume there. I – the one – so the two things I would say on this.
27:25Number one is that Christian Watson is the type of player that I like having on my team because bad weeks in
27:31fantasy football from individual players don't hurt you nearly as much as good weeks help you.
27:35And Christian Watson is the type of player who, when he has those big weeks, will win you your week.
27:41And I like having those players on my team.
27:43And I still think Christian Watson will be that going forward, to be clear.
27:47It just might be a little more – fewer and farther between than what we've kind of seen so far.
27:52But I do still think he will have those types of weeks.
27:55The other thing with Christian Watson is when you buy into the hype on a sleeper or breakout candidate or whatever word
28:01you would call him, and you get a guy in, let's say, round six who is performing all of a sudden –
28:07like, very quickly appears to have been one of the correct answers of the season, at least based on the early production.
28:13And he's performing like a guy that you couldn't have drafted in the first half of round two.
28:18I mean, he's been wide receiver three on the season so far overall.
28:21Like, when you hit on a guy like that late or even middle, not late, emotionally, it's very hard to get rid of him.
28:28You're like – this was my big success of the year was that I believed in Christian Watson.
28:33This is me, like, saying what people are thinking, not me saying it.
28:36But, like, you are pounding the – you are bragging in the group chat, like, every time he catches a big touchdown.
28:42Like, you guys see that? Remember when I took him to six?
28:45Remember you all passed on him so you could go draft, you know, whatever quarterback or tight – like, I got Christian Watson.
28:51That is what you feel when you get a guy like this when you got him, and it is so hard to
28:57give up on that guy in those scenarios. I'm not saying you're wrong.
29:01I'm saying that emotionally, like, you've got to really convince people.
29:04But you are taking a page out of my playbook with the – this isn't about the player.
29:08This is about the value and what you can actually get for him right now, which I think is a good point.
29:14He's back-to-back with Parker Washington. Again, all the similar reasons you're attached to Christian Watson, Parker Washington managers are attached to Parker Washington.
29:21Now, he hasn't put it all together as much as Christian Watson has this season, but in terms of the peripherals.
29:26Who do we talk about on the quarterbacks to buy show?
29:29Trevor Lawrence. Why? Because his schedule is all green lights the rest of the way.
29:33There is no stopping this Jaguars passing attack, and it's so clear to me who the number one receiver on the Jaguars is.
29:39There's no debate. Whereas with the Packers, it's like, I mean, Christian Watson doesn't leave his team in target.
29:44It's like – those are all true things, whereas Washington is so head and shoulders above every other receiver on that offense.
29:50They're not even playing Brian Thomas Jr. anymore. It's an interesting comp, too, because both guys, you feel – you lend an
29:56extra layer of validity to their breakouts because they did it at the second half of last year, too.
30:01Christian Watson was wide receiver 13 from week 11 on last season, so it feels like an extension of that.
30:07Parker Washington finished on fire. It feels like an extension of that.
30:10So it almost feels more legitimate seeing this breakout because we did see the early signs of it a year earlier.
30:15So I think it's kind of interesting, actually, just to put the two of them together.
30:20We've talked about Parker Washington a lot on this show, not as much on Christian Watson.
30:24I think an interesting deal you could make is Christian Watson for A.J.
30:28Brown plus. I mean, you could get that done, I think, yeah.
30:31Yeah, and it can be a running back. It can be another wide receiver, one of the running backs we talked about, the running backs to buy show.
30:38Blake Corum and A.J. Brown. I mean, maybe even more.
30:41I mean, like, honestly, like, the way that Christian Watson is being discussed, can you get, like, A.J.
30:46Brown and Chase Brown for Christian Watson? Like, I mean, if you could do that, then yes, you absolutely should.
30:51I don't know if you could. I mean, he's a top 10 wide receiver.
30:55And Chase Brown and A.J. Brown are both outside the top 12 at their respective positions.
30:59Feels like a lot. But, I mean, if you could, I mean, negotiating is a skill if you can make that case.
31:05What about Watson for Gentty and Coker? I like that.
31:08If somebody really likes Watson and wants to get that wide receiver one, I like that one.
31:12I mean, again, this isn't to say he's going to just, like, do nothing the rest of the season.
31:17But I'm just saying, like, dude, like, if you're hurting a running back, you can get a fringe RB1 and a pretty
31:23strong receiver, like a top 15 guy. Or. Top 20.
31:26Or let's say you took CeeDee Lamb and Malik Neighbors early, and then you also hit on Parker Washington.
31:31And Christian Watson is now, like, one of these four guys you have.
31:35Like, let's say you took Zay Flowers, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, back-to-back-to-back rounds.
31:38Like, that's, there are managers out there who did that.
31:41Like, trading him straight up for maybe not, maybe Javante Williams or, you know, somebody like, somebody in that range of running
31:47backs, I think is also worth looking at if you have.
31:50I would also, too, trade Christian Watson to get Zay Flowers in terms of whatever I need to add to the deal to make that happen.
31:57I would also use as a point. My receiver to sell, I didn't feel that strongly about this one, honestly.
32:02I didn't have really a good one for this week.
32:05Don't rain on your parade before you start. DK Metcalf is who I'm looking to sell.
32:09The reason that I'm rating on it isn't that I disagree with it.
32:12It's that I don't know how much you will get for him.
32:16But he has two of his last three weeks have been pretty good games, honestly.
32:20You know, he didn't do anything against the Colts, but against the Browns and the Bucs in weeks four and six, he
32:25averaged 12 targets per game in those games, eight catches and about 100 receiving yards.
32:30And I just did. I continue to not be a believer in this offense and in Aaron Rodgers going forward.
32:35And like Jalen Warren is really the only piece of this offense that I want to be involved with.
32:40And a good rule of thumb for receivers is if you don't believe in them, sell them coming off the big game because it's a volatile position.
32:47Again, 15 targets against the Bucs, 11 catches, 93 yards.
32:50That's a big game relative to DK Metcalf standards this season.
32:53I think there are people out there that still think DK Metcalf is a good player too.
32:57And I'm not saying he's a bad player, but I think there are people out there who like haven't given up on
33:03him as he's only 28 years old. He's still a really talented athletic receiver.
33:07I just don't believe in this offense. I don't believe in Aaron Rodgers, particularly long term, you know, the old, the, in
33:13terms of like later into the season as the weather gets colder, people have kind of talked about that with how old he is.
33:19At this point, the schedule is not particularly friendly.
33:22You know, after the bye week in week nine, it's Cincinnati, Philly, Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, Baltimore.
33:26Like I know some of those defenses have had bad games at times this season, but there's a lot of talent on
33:32all five of those defenses, all six of those defenses for that stretch there.
33:36So I just think he's somebody where I'd be very willing to move him.
33:39Now, this is one where you're probably not going to get a ton back, but I think you could include him with somebody else to make a trade.
33:47I think you can include DK Metcalf with a running back to upgrade at running back.
33:51I think you can include DK Metcalf with another receiver for somebody who needs depth through these bye weeks and injuries and get a better receiver.
33:58Like you're not going to trade DK Metcalf straight up for Jalen Coker because the Coker manager is not saying yes.
34:04But could you do Metcalf and somebody wants to buy on Stefan Diggs with Terry McLaurin out, put those two together and
34:10go get a Matthew Golden or Garrett Wilson? Like those are that's the track that I would look to take with a guy like DK Metcalf right now.
34:17Carnal Tate. Straight up, I'd rather have Carnal Tate.
34:20They're back to back in consensus. So that's like a deal I would look at.
34:24I think that you got to look at Metcalf as into your point about selling him right.
34:28He's ranked pretty low in rest of season rankings because the market agrees with you that this is probably not going to last.
34:34Actually, I'm sorry. Why are you for 31? I want to get it right for them.
34:39Sorry to cut you off. Yeah. It's going to fall off potentially.
34:42Again, you look at how pass heavy the Steelers have been.
34:45They are third in pass rate over expectation. They're second in true pass rate this season.
34:49But Aaron Rodgers is also, I think, top three or top four in total sacks taken.
34:53So as these hits start to pile up, pile up, pile up, how often and how aggressive are the Steelers going to remain being a pass heavy team?
35:01That remains to be seen. That's something that I would be skeptical about rest of season.
35:05And that's obviously helping fuel a lot of DK Metcalf's production.
35:08So I think the market's right on about this where it's right now he probably has more value to you.
35:14So trade him to a manager that needs production right now from their wide receiver where you can bank on, hey, a
35:19guy maybe being a second half league winner. An interesting name, and maybe this is being too aggressive, like Jordan Tyson.
35:25Right? You just be like, you know what? If Metcalf's on my bench anyway, and I can get someone like Jordan Tyson
35:31where it's like maybe this insane upside again, it could be a total zero.
35:35Again, he's coming off of his injuries. He has a lot of injuries.
35:38But that guy was so, so talented coming out of the draft this year.
35:42And have he not gotten hurt? He could have been.
35:45I mean, he could be melting bases right now.
35:47So I think that Jordan Tyson maybe is a move.
35:50If you're not even starting Metcalf or you don't feel like you're ever confident playing him, it's like, then just draft or
35:56go get a upside rookie wide receiver who's going to make his season debut potentially this week in Paris.
36:01You know who I think is kind of interesting?
36:03And we're going to loop this into our next conversation because it's your tight end to buy.
36:08We often don't talk about, oh, go trade for a tight end from the other position because, again, it's kind of unique to what your needs are.
36:15You have Terrence Ferguson, just to spoil it, as your buy here in this next segment.
36:19I think trading guy like DK Metcalf or Terrence Ferguson, if somebody has Ferguson as their tight end too and views them
36:25as a bench piece, whereas you can view DK Metcalf as a bench piece and if they need a receiver, that's a
36:31deal I would make 10 out of 10. Even though the rest of the season rankings aren't going to reflect that that's
36:37maybe a smart deal, I think that's the type of upside swing that I would want to be taking.
36:42So let's get into Terrence Ferguson as your buy.
36:44But that's an example for me where you don't have to think about the tight end there, especially tight end coming off of IR.
36:51You're still currently on IR. That's one that I would highlight.
36:54We've seen these tight ends for the Rams get way more involved the last couple games when they've been dealing with injuries to their wide receivers.
37:01Most notably, Tyler Higbee has really stepped up and had a much bigger role.
37:04Last week, it was Colby Parkinson that really stepped up and had a bigger role.
37:09But Devontae Adams is not coming back anytime soon.
37:11Out for six to ten weeks. Given his age, I'd be leaning towards him probably missing the remainder of the regular season,
37:17and maybe he'll come back for the postseason. I think that's ultimately what the Rams probably hope for with him, that he
37:23just comes back to help them make a Super Bowl run.
37:26But I don't think we're going to see him for fantasy football purposes, potentially the rest of the season.
37:31So that immediately creates an opportunity for some of these pass catchers on the Rams.
37:35Now, Ferguson's also on injured reserve right now, but he's on the short-term IR.
37:39The expectation is he's going to be back at the start of November.
37:42So still a couple more weeks until he returns.
37:44But we saw, I think it was back in week two, right?
37:48When they had a whole game plan set up for Terrence Ferguson to take on this massive role.
37:52And he ended up having a really big game.
37:55And I know we talked about it as, man, like Terrence Ferguson, where is he rest of the season?
38:00He's like a top 12, top 10 fantasy tight end because of the upside he could have in this offense.
38:05And I think that all applies here. It's just you got to wait for it a little bit.
38:10But given this Adams injury and the timing of it, you got to strike now to get Ferguson on your roster, put him on your bench.
38:17Obviously, you've been playing a different tight end. So you can make or you can survive in the short term, especially with
38:23these other guys still involved between Higby and Parkinson.
38:25So I think that this is the, again, this was probably the easiest one I did in terms of tight ends to
38:31buy because it was so obvious to me. It's like, yes, Ferguson, get him from a different manager because they're not using him right now.
38:38He's hurt. This is a prime time to buy.
38:40Erickson, I think this might be the single best buying opportunity when we look back on this season that you could have had.
38:47I love this pick. I think it's a fantastic call out by you, especially because it's going to be a little under
38:52the radar with him still on IR. I genuinely think we might in like the end of December, we might look back
38:58and say, what was the best trade you could have made this season?
39:02And it was buying Terrence Ferguson right now. We talked so much.
39:05I talked about this a lot with Fitz. I've talked about this with you.
39:09If either Puka or Devontae ever missed time, we thought Terrence Ferguson could be a clear number two target in a great
39:15offense with a great offensive play caller who loves using tight ends and could genuinely be like the number three tight end
39:21in fantasy behind just Bowers and Trey McBride. Like we were so excited about the possibility if there were to be an injury that causes it.
39:28Ferguson was almost like the tight end. He was almost like a wide receiver handcuff that you could put at tight end and was going for really cheap.
39:35That's why I loved him in draft season. That's why I was really excited before he got hurt himself.
39:40Devontae Adams is still going to be out when Terrence Ferguson comes back to the point that you highlighted.
39:45That opportunity is going to be there. If Ferguson comes off IR fully healthy a week from now or two weeks from
39:51now or whatever it is, holy cow will the arrow be up for him.
39:55And right now he's tight end 16 in the rest of season rankings.
39:58Again, under the radar because he's injured. Boy, do I think this is the right one.
40:03And by the way, you might not even need to trade for him because there will be a lot of leagues where
40:09he was dropped just given the nature of those leagues.
40:11So go pick him up first of all on waivers if you can.
40:15But if you can't, go trade for him. I think it will be under the radar.
40:19It would not surprise me if he comes back and is tight end 6 rest of season, genuinely.
40:24Like there's not a very long list of tight ends that I am certain are going to be better than him the rest of the way.
40:31If Devontae Adams really does miss, let's say, the rest of the season or close to it.
40:35I think this is a fantastic call because not only is the upside really high, I think the floor is actually kind of high once he gets healthy.
40:43Like I really find it hard to believe they're not going to use him once he's back on the field.
40:48And I think the opportunity is there because I think it's under the radar.
40:52So truly, I think maybe the single best call we could make this season, that's on the table.
40:57It's not a guarantee. Maybe that's a bold position.
40:59But like, I think that's on the table as an outcome.
41:02Names that you could move for Ferguson, I think could get done, especially if it's a manager that needs tight end production right now.
41:09Kyle Pitts got two touchdowns last week, selling high on Pitts.
41:12J.K. Dobbins, another player where if they need a running back, J.K.
41:15Dobbins, you got late. We know that his track record with his injuries, he's usually not built to last.
41:20And he's gotten a lot of volume over the last two weeks.
41:23These are players that are near Terrence Ferguson in the rest of the season rankings.
41:27How about at the tight end position, Chigakonkwo? Somebody says, okay, now Terry McLaurin's out.
41:31Kwonkwo's going to be great. Give me Ferguson. I'll wait another week for it.
41:35Yeah. That's another one. Yeah. Absolutely great call by you.
41:38Buy seller, hold, wide receivers. How about Michael Wilson, Luther Burden, Matthew Golden?
41:41Again, not a ranking. It's an assessment of market value.
41:44Wilson is one I really wanted to include. I actually included him last week, but I wanted to do it again because
41:50he now has two bad games without Marvin Harrison Jr.
41:52there. And there are people asking, like, what is this role actually going to look like going forward?
41:57What do we make of this? So I thought he was actually a really good one to include, even though we just did it a week ago.
42:04So Michael Wilson, Luther Burden, Matthew Golden, who do you like?
42:07So buying Matthew Golden, I think just, I know I listed out some of the reasons why Christian Watson could be a sell high.
42:14If you could get Matthew Golden plus for Christian Watson, I think that's the deal to make.
42:18So he would be my buy, even though I did outline some of the environmental concerns about Green Bay.
42:23Luther Burden was my, could also be my buy, but he was my buy last week.
42:28So he would just probably be my hold. But I think that Michael Wilson is the clear sell here because I think
42:34that he's still on this certain pedestal of, okay, he's the number one receiver on the Cardinals.
42:38But you can see this Cardinals team getting off the rails sooner rather than later, where if they go away from Jacoby
42:44Brissett, they decide to do something else at the quarterback position.
42:47And Michael Wilson has just been not good with his opportunities so far this year.
42:51He's gotten a lot of volume, but he's been really inefficient.
42:54If you look at a lot of the advanced metrics in terms of EPA per target, quarterback rating when targeted, Michael Wilson
43:00ranks near bottom of the league in a lot of these different categories.
43:03So yes, he's going to see enough volume to pop in certain circumstances.
43:07But I mean, Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn't holding him back.
43:10And I think that we talked about this last week where it was kind of like he was being inflated when Harrison
43:15wasn't even really a factor in the first place.
43:18And he's just had back-to-back dud weeks since they traded Marvin Harrison Jr.
43:21So maybe it just has to do more with the offense overall.
43:25I just don't think you need to be invested in Cardinals long-term.
43:28So if you can still get something strong for Michael Wilson as the de facto wide receiver one or wide receiver two
43:34really on his offense because of Trey McBride, then I think that's the guy to deal.
43:38I think that's probably where is he in ECR rest of the season ranks, Michael Wilson?
43:42Because I'm pretty sure I have him much lower.
43:45Wide receiver 23. You see, I have him wide receiver 29.
43:48So yeah, I'm much lower on. So this one was easy for me, actually.
43:51Okay. I actually agree with him as a sell.
43:54I didn't think it was easy, though, because I think you could make a case of like, hey, it's been two down weeks.
44:00Like we know that they're still going to throw and get a lot of garbage time opportunities over the course of the
44:06season and that Michael Wilson has been good within the last year.
44:09So like I think you could make the case for him to not be the sell here.
44:14But he is also my sell. I just don't find it as easy as you.
44:18I saw a funny tweet from somebody that said, and this obviously isn't actually true, but they were like, Kendrick Bourne is Marvin Harrison Jr.
44:24Michael Wilson. Yeah, right. And obviously, again, that's not actually what's happening here.
44:28But it's like that conversation where, well, now Michael Wilson has to actually be the wide receiver one.
44:33It's not so easy when Marvin Harrison's not drawing coverage as well.
44:36There can be only one number two receiver in this offense who's actually producing.
44:40Yeah. And then I, so again, I do actually agree with your theories, even though I find it to be closer than you did.
44:46And Golden, I agree, even though he's the highest ranked of these guys, is the smartest by just the targets.
44:51Like as we talked about during the Christian Watson segment, all that, all those reasons I think pan out there.
44:57One more trio here, Erickson. Roma Dunze, Emeka Egbuka, Stefan Diggs, obviously a new opportunity here with Diggs, with McLaurin out for a while.
45:03A Dunze and Egbuka, buy, sell, or hold? I think Egbuka, I want to hold on to.
45:08The Buccaneers schedule is getting a little bit easier.
45:10They're getting Baker Mayfield back potentially. Now, maybe that's a bad thing because Egbuka was not good with Baker Mayfield, but we
45:16at least have proof of concept of a healthy Baker Mayfield being good for Emeka Egbuka, even if it was dating back
45:22to his rookie year, the start of it last year.
45:25One thing to highlight about the Buccaneers I've noticed over the last couple of weeks is it's very concentrated in terms of where the touches are going, right?
45:32It's Bucky Irving and Emeka Egbuka that have really dominated the target share in the touches since Jane Daniels came back or
45:38took over as the quarterback for Mayfield. And that's kind of Zach Robinson's thing.
45:42If you remember in Atlanta, it was very similar where it was just Bijon and Drake London get all the targets.
45:47And that was Zach Robinson calling that offense. So I think Egbuka would probably be my either hold or buy, probably just
45:53a hold for me, just because I want to see what this Baker Mayfield thing kind of turns out to be.
45:59Rowan Madunze, I think just buying bears just seems like a good investment to make.
46:03And he's coming off a, you know, so-so type of game, but he still runs all the routes for Caleb Williams.
46:09So he'd probably be my buy because you can buy him really cheap.
46:12Just getting bears pass catcher seems like a good strategy.
46:15And then Stephon Diggs is probably my sell high, right?
46:17Again, when going back to process, right? Who have we talked about as sell highs on the show over the last couple of weeks?
46:24It's been these older receivers, right? Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin.
46:26I didn't never mention Devonta Adams as like a sell high, but like these players are just at a higher injury risk, older wide receivers.
46:33And Stephon Diggs now being put into this spot spotlight of, okay, well, now he's going to be the number one wide receiver for the commanders.
46:40I know I talked about it on the intro to the running back show.
46:44I just think that people might get carried away with Diggs being the alpha number one wide receiver on his team when
46:50there actually are other formidable guys on that roster between Antonio Williams, a rookie that we're excited about.
46:55Chico Conquo commanded targets. He had more targets than Stephon Diggs, I believe on Monday night football.
46:59So I just wouldn't get like two out of my skis on Diggs in terms of him being the locked and loaded
47:05wide receiver one rest of season when he might be more like a wide receiver two, three rest of season.
47:10So that's probably who I would sell high on because he can probably get a strong return.
47:15Yeah, I think I generally agree here. Abuka is for me is the easy hold, I think.
47:20And then it's kind of between the other two.
47:22And I just think generally speaking, I want to be selling guys like not only is Diggs older, but I like selling
47:28off of the enthusiasm when it appears an opportunity is about to grow for a player because it doesn't always pan out that way.
47:34Like Diggs' role might not change. It might just be that Antonio Williams steps into Terry McLaurin's role.
47:39But if you can sell on the optimism that Diggs is going to have a much larger role in this offense, an
47:45offense that I'm not even sure I believe in that much, generally speaking, then I think that's where I would want to take that opportunity.
47:52So I go Diggs as a sell. Abuka is the hold.
47:55You just see what happens when Baker comes back, all that stuff.
47:58And that leaves Roma Duneza as the buy, which I actually don't mind just because I think he's probably really affordable right now.
48:04Like I still think Duneza is a quality player who is just has not really worked out this season yet.
48:09And because of that, I think he's really cheap.
48:12Also, his schedule coming up is not that friendly, but it does get a lot friendlier in the second half after the buy week.
48:18So I think if you can buy him and even maybe pay a little lower because, oh man, I don't want to spend up.
48:25Look, he's got New England and Seattle is next to week.
48:28Like I think you can kind of sneak that in, but knowing that, oh, this gets a lot friendlier after the week 10 buy.
48:34So again, it's not that I'm sitting here saying, oh, the underlying metrics are showing that Roma Duneza is about to break out.
48:40It's just, I think, I still believe he's a good player and I think he's going to be really cheap compared to these other guys.
48:47So that's where I would go. Buy a Duneza, hold a Buka and sell Diggs.
48:51We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks everybody for checking out this episode.
48:55For Erickson, I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time.
48:58Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast.
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