Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers | Quarterback Must-Have Targets, Busts to Avoid, and Sleepers (Ep. 2027)
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May 18, 2026
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Mon, May 18, 2026
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Episode Transcript
0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human. Max softness, max energy, max run.
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0:08Dual cell DNA tuned cushion is optimized for soft landings and powerful toe-offs, while a glide roll rocker helps provide a more
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0:17Shop the Glycerin Max 2 at brooksrunning.com Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros.
0:21This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. It is me, Joey P, Joe Pisapia, and today we're going to take a look at the quarterback position.
0:28That's right. This is where it all begins for your fantasy knowledge.
0:31If you understand the quarterbacks, you understand the offenses.
0:33If you understand the offenses, there's a good chance you're going to be successful in your fantasy drafts and to start taking
0:39a deep dive into the early ranks of quarterback.
0:42Now that we have free agency out of the way, now that we have the NFL draft out of the way, now
0:48that Aaron Rodgers decides he wants to play football again.
0:51Yay! We have Jake Seeley from The Athletic and we have D-Bro Derek Brown, the king of bros here with us today
0:57to parse through all these rankings, which you can find by the way, over fantasypros.com slash rankings.
1:01Isn't that funny? How you just put rankings at the end of it and it takes you right there.
1:07It's pretty good. So the consensus rankings are up here and we're going to start here with the very top tier of
1:13quarterback and jump in with two feet. Top tier.
1:15You have a question? I do have a question before we get started.
1:19I don't know. I don't know. I don't know.
1:21I apologize to the audience who thought we were going to go right in, but now we're not.
1:26Go ahead. No, never because I don't know if the producers are going to cut off like I wore my Mandalorian shirt.
1:32Are you wearing an AFC Richmond shirt? I am.
1:34I'm wearing not only I realize not only am I wearing my AFC Richmond shirt today, but I've also got my believe mug.
1:41So I guess that was. I just saw the RIC and half of the H and I just wanted to make sure that I appreciate that.
1:48I know Nicole was I just got her for her birthday.
1:51The sweatshirt of that. I love Ted Lasso. I'm not going to lie.
1:54I was late to Ted Lasso. I just watched it for the first time last year.
1:59I have not seen it. I'll own it. He's all.
2:02I'm Max. All right. Well, then all of it producers keep all of this.
2:05I don't care about the jerk in the YouTube comments.
2:08It goes fast. I'll work to three minutes and 45 seconds for the show to start.
2:12Nobody cares. This is the show. Well, like it cool.
2:15They did the work for us. If you want to jump in.
2:18Like so you have to watch project. Hail Mary.
2:21And he has to watch Ted Lasso. There you go.
2:24Now the rankings. Look, we didn't go to see the Mandalorian though, by the way.
2:28Are you going to see it? Yeah, I am.
2:30Absolutely. I'm taking these nephew. It looks so good, dude.
2:33I don't know. Are you not? I don't know.
2:35My love for Star Wars has really fallen off the last couple of years.
2:39Wow. Joe went so far off the cliff. He hates it.
2:42I am. I do. I'm just, I'm a purist.
2:45There's like kids on his lawn that wear Star Wars stuff and he throws rocks at them.
2:49Yeah. He's tossing trash at them. I throw my old Kenner figures at them for my Darth Vader case that I still
2:55have, which I still have in the closet, by the way, the figure case with Darth Vader and the whole thing.
3:01I don't know. We're going to talk. We'll talk more about that.
3:04Joey, don't do it. Let's talk about the quarterbacks here.
3:07If you want this kind of nonsense, check on tailgate NFL.
3:10We had a great conversation there about all kinds of stupid things and football too.
3:14Uh, check it out. YouTube right now. Anyway, let's talk about the top tier of quarterbacks.
3:19Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake may feels right. Feels good.
3:21Uh, I've just been working on the, uh, quarterback profiles for black book.
3:25That'll be out on Amazon first week of June.
3:27I know D bro is working diligently there as well, but I always do the quarterback write ups and going through like,
3:33this is kind of the top tier for me too.
3:36I can understand making cases for other guys also.
3:39But when you look at the consistency of Josh Allen, the last couple of years, it's clear.
3:43I mean, you know, he's quarterback one, quarterback, two quarterback, one quarterback, two quarterback, one quarterback, one.
3:48I mean, at this point it's crazy. Like it's far and away the Lamar Jackson situation last year.
3:53My take on this is a very easy one guys, which is he was never healthy the whole season.
3:58We have to just take it, throw it away and not lose sight of all the progress he made in 2024, where
4:04he threw 41 passing touchdowns and threw for 4,000 yards for the first time in his career.
4:09He made massive strides forward. And last year it was just health and just deteriorate around the entire team.
4:14And then Drake may, we all thought that his rushing ability would kind of catapult him.
4:18We'll see. Obviously we're not at June 1st yet, but if the AJ Brown trade does happen and he goes there, that
4:24certainly helps keep him in this upper tier. So the easy question is this, is there another guy that you want to
4:30throw into this or take out of this elite tier?
4:33Jake, I'm going to start with you on this one.
4:36Is there somebody you want to put in or take out of this number one tier that we find on FP?
4:42I'm good with these three, but my tier includes Jaden Daniels.
4:45And it seems it's weird to get a lot of pushback on Jaden Daniels.
4:48I don't know why I said pushback like that.
4:51Push back on. It was very Christopher Walken-esque. Why so far back for this take, Jake?
4:55Very good. Christopher Walken impression. Yeah, that was really good.
4:58That was good. It was hurt last year. So bad.
5:01It hurt his legs. Whenever you're done. I'm done.
5:03When it comes to Daniels, look, we just had him here last year when we were drafting, coming off his rookie season,
5:09where he was sixth in fancy points per game in his rookie season.
5:13And there was a lot of complaint last year that Cliff Kingsbury didn't do anything but Cliff Kingsbury things.
5:18And that's why the offense started having problems. Also on top of it, Terry McLaurin was his number one option.
5:23Also, he was hurt from the jump off and then hurt again and then hurt again.
5:28And I get it. The injury risk is going to be something that people want to push back on and I'm okay with that.
5:34But I mean, you're still talking about in his first four games, which had that giant hurt gap in between.
5:40He did have seven touchdowns. He was averaging nearly 50 rushing yards per game.
5:44He didn't even get his rushing touchdowns until I think it was week seven, eight, nine.
5:48And if you look at it moving to David Blau, you're going to get more play action.
5:53Potentially you're going to get a what creativity to the Cliff Kingsbury offense because he's coming from that tree, which is going
5:59to have some carry over three wide some motion and all that type of stuff.
6:03But we're actually going to use also what Jaden Daniels can do in the play action and some of the QB rollout.
6:09So I think that you're going to get the best version of Jane and Daniels that we saw two years ago, which
6:15was already QB six as a rookie. He finally has a second weapon.
6:18We hope I know we're counting on a rookie, but we hope for a rookie to be a second weapon to improve the passing offense a little bit.
6:26I think what they're putting together around him isn't complete, but it's nice enough that I'm going to make the case that
6:32Jane and Daniels gets back to 21 plus fantasy points per game, which in my opinion deserves to be in tier one
6:38because if you can be a capable quarterback and you're running for eight, 9,000 yards, you're going to be in tier one for me.
6:45No, look, I think that is absolutely there's a that's a fact like that no one's going to dispute that at all.
6:51But, you know, when you're out there for that many yards, he's going to end up with that grouping.
6:56I'm trying to remember what he was at in 2024.
6:59I'm gonna pull that up real quick there for Jane Daniels in terms of his fantasy points per game.
7:04That's what I was talking about. It was healthy.
7:06Yeah, it was 21 and a half, right? He was six.
7:09Okay, he was. Yeah. Well, I'm looking at this right now and that is not a hard leap of faith to take.
7:15It's funny. That would have been good enough for second overall last year, Jake, by the way, just the way things kind of better.
7:22Thank you for that. You're welcome. This is why we like to look at the numbers here.
7:27Now, D bro, there's a guy that you again, you want to adjust here.
7:30Now, I don't know if you want to adjust him out of this tier or you just want to adjust him down a tick.
7:37But I want to hear about this because I think this is a little controversial and you're not the first, you know,
7:43we know D bro is not afraid of controversy here in the program.
7:47So go ahead. Just following the process, man. You're like the Madonna of fantasy pros.
7:51You just, you know, just please don't release any books.
7:53If he's going with the first answer, I'm cool with it because I also have him number three.
7:58But if he's going with the second answer and kicking him out, I'm really interested.
8:02Yeah, me too. All right. I've actually like I don't have him in this tier.
8:07I'd have him at Q. I have Lamar Jackson at QB five.
8:10I'm not saying that Lamar Jackson is dust. He is forever.
8:13Nothing. I, I just have more questions about Lamar Jackson than it seems like a lot of people do.
8:18Like everybody's like, Oh, he was hurt and we're just going to excuse everything away.
8:22And are we all not also realizing that he's entering his age 29 season?
8:26He has almost 1100 rushing attempts in his career.
8:28The injuries have been an issue. And if the rushing doesn't keep up, they added a lot of weapons.
8:34We have a new OC. We don't even know if that OC is going to be good.
8:38We think he's going to be good because he worked with Ben Johnson.
8:42What if he sucks? He's never called plays in the NFL.
8:45Like we have no proof of concept that he's actually good.
8:48And then you go back to like how Lamar Jackson finished last year.
8:51It was a long sample size of terrible guys, like weeks nine through 18.
8:55It wasn't just, Oh, he's a low end QB one.
8:58Lamar Jackson was QB 20 in fantasy points per game.
9:01Right. But I think he was, but we talked about a myriad of injuries that he had during that span.
9:06Like it was, it was not just like one injury.
9:09It was like several, all lower half injuries too.
9:11And then I just feel like that was a guy going, Hey, I'm going to do my best to get on the
9:17field because my team is dying a slow death out here.
9:20We're trying to propel into the playoffs. And I get that.
9:23And Harbaugh, the pressure of the expectations. This was a team that was supposed to go to the Superbowl last year.
9:29So you're not wrong about, you know, his bad play.
9:32He was bad. There's no doubt about that. But when do you sort of take that with a giant grain of salt
9:38and say he was playing through a time where he probably should not have been playing.
9:42And we can't take that necessarily as a copy and paste of 20, 20 said I'm not taking it as a copy and paste.
9:49But what I'm saying is like people are saying, okay, with all the injuries and stuff.
9:53And yes, I think that has merit of saying, oh, he's going to rush more, but he was God awful as a passer.
10:00That's the caveat when nobody's talking about, it wasn't just that he's not running.
10:03Oh, he's hurt. He's banged up. He was terrible as a passer, like amongst 35 qualifying quarterbacks over that time.
10:09He was 33rd and accurate throw rate. Only Brady cook was worse.
10:12He was 26th and catchable target rate. He was 31st and hero throw rate.
10:16So if I'm saying the rushing bounces back, I haven't had freaking QB five.
10:20So I'm not saying that the rushing doesn't probably bounce back, but there is some risk here considering the age of Lamar Jackson.
10:26Mark Andrews is sure. I think that's fair. The other weapons around him, the OC change, the offensive line is also littered with questions.
10:33So like, I just don't think we can gloss over all of the risks that I think with Lamar Jackson and taking
10:39him this high in any draft versus other quarterbacks around him.
10:42Jake, I know you're going to push back on this.
10:44So I want you to, but I want to set you up in a way.
10:49Cause I want to throw this. I want to throw the meat at you so you can go ahead and chew on a little bit.
10:55He has never rushed for fewer than 695 yards.
10:58That was his rookie season. Every year has basically been 700 all the way up to 1200.
11:03I look again, the Russian will come back, but to Jake's point earlier about Jane Daniels, if you have a quarterback is
11:09going to be in that 700 plus rushing total, no matter what happens, pass or wise, we're still looking at him as being in that conversation.
11:16And I, and I'm not saying Jake, that we should be chasing 2024, that that might be the high watermark of his career MVP caliber season.
11:23I might not probably will be, but at the same time, if we get that rushing total back up into the 700s,
11:29it's going to be really hard to keep Lamar out of this tier one.
11:33So that's the biggest thing is if you look at the course of running or quarterbacks, running backs that have run for seven to 800 yards at quarterback.
11:40And then you don't even need their passing stat line.
11:43The 707, I always bring over Daniel Jones, the one year he threw more interceptions to touchdowns.
11:48He was still a top 10 quarterback. That's going to get you so far.
11:52So last year is probably the high bar of his passing career.
11:55We're never going to get back to his second season.
11:58It's probably the high bar of the rushing when he ran for 1,207.
12:01But I think the biggest thing is I'm not kicking him out because given enough of what we've seen of his career,
12:07which his low end, I mean, we're talking about as far as 20 fancy points per game.
12:12And I like that feels like worst case scenario.
12:14I do. I will sit here and say, like, I feel like last year was anomalous.
12:19I'm with you under the fact that, like, there was a lot going wrong from him and everything.
12:24You're welcome. But the bigger thing I'm going to say is where I'll try to spin it positively and not say that
12:30I'm not at the same time, I'm not saying Derek's not wrong for anything he's taking away.
12:34Oh, I don't think he's wrong either. We're hoping that Declan Doyle can make moves.
12:38But I will say here is the one positive that I did look at.
12:42So I brought up the play action before with Jamie Daniels when I was going into that dive.
12:47There's only one team that has played play action more than the Lions, where Declan Doyle is coming from.
12:52And that was the Rams. The Ravens, bottom third of the league.
12:56Here's the kicker on the side of it. Lamar Jackson, number one in the league in touchdowns or first downs per attempt under play action.
13:02So there's your positive that Declan Doyle can bring some of that system.
13:06And like you said, D-Bro, maybe he's a terrible play caller, like Kingsbury at some point.
13:10Or maybe it only works for half the season.
13:13And then everybody's like, oh, we'll see what you're doing.
13:16But there is some positive takeaway that the fact that the play action, especially when you talk about Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry
13:22and more play action, a little less of the RPO style of the play action.
13:26And that maybe this gets the passing Lamar back that we want to see.
13:29I want to see that transition, Jake, to your point, like getting away from the RPO version of it a little bit,
13:36because I think, you know, look, as long as you've got Derek Henry still on this team.
13:40And last year, he still rushed for what, 1500 yards.
13:43Like that is still something that you just cannot stop selling out on.
13:46You've got to be ready for the Derek Henry run at all times.
13:50Like you just have to in this offense. And I think that will play back into, at the very least, maybe in
13:56the beginning of the year, building that Lamar Jackson confidence back up.
13:59Make it simple. Make it quick. You know, just get the good rhythm there.
14:03I think the Ravens are one of those teams, D-Bro, for me, that they got us.
14:08I want to see them start off hot because I think it will say a lot about maybe it was just time
14:14where everything, the old voices of Harbaugh, all this stuff going on, the pressure of the Ravens.
14:18Maybe just a clean slate is exactly what this veteran team kind of needed.
14:22Yeah, my only last pushback about Lamar Jackson is we kind of, Jake kind of illuminated it was if we don't think
14:28that he's going to get back to 2024 when he was QB1 and fantasy points per game.
14:33And we don't think he's going to get back to 2019 when he was QB1 and fantasy points per game.
14:38My only pushback about this is I don't think he should be at QB2 because we're basically saying he's got a really
14:44damn good chance to be QB1 overall. And I just, I think there's more risk and I don't think he gets back to being QB1 overall.
14:51So I don't want to put him at QB2 in my rankings when outside of those years.
14:56So in 2023 through 2020, he was QB3, QB6, QB7, QB8 and fantasy points per game.
15:00So he's much closer over the totality of his career outside of those two years of QB5 than QB2 or QB1.
15:06Those are also years without Derrick Henry. Just for pointing that out there.
15:10If Derrick Henry changes the complexion. What kind of running backs they got behind him?
15:14Nothing. Nothing. Nothing at all. But that is a big difference in what, you know, again, the adjustments you have to make as a defense.
15:21So wait, where do you have Lamar just out of curiosity again?
15:24He's number what? QB5. Who's number two for you?
15:26Who's your one, two, three? So my number two, since we're talking about guys that could bounce back and things like that, my QB2 is Jalen Hurts.
15:34Jalen Hurts. Oh, okay. All right. That'll be interesting for later in the show.
15:38We're going to get to that in just a second.
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18:23It's tier two. Joe Burrow at the top on Fantasy Pro's Consensus at number four.
18:28Then Jaden Daniels, Mr. Sealy's favorite to move up a tier at number five.
18:31Jalen Hurts at number six. Justin Herbert at seven, which I like because Justin Herbert was a true warrior last year.
18:37Playing with all those tackles missing. He got sacked 50, was it 54 times or 58 times?
18:42I lost track. I couldn't even keep track of how many times that young man got sacked yesterday.
18:4754 last year. Excuse me, not yesterday. That would have been a lot.
18:50Feels like just yesterday. Jackson Dart at number eight and Caleb Williams at number nine.
18:54So a pretty good grouping here. With this grouping, Debro, I'm going to start with you because you've got, I know Jalen
19:00Hurts, you want to give a couple moments on him, but you're talking about some guys with some rushing upside with Dart, Caleb Williams, obviously Jaden Daniels.
19:08We're talking about Joe Burrow, who obviously we know he's MVP caliber.
19:11And the problem with Joe Burrow is his one comeback player of the year twice.
19:15And he hasn't barely turned 30. And then you've got guys in this grouping like Justin Herbert, who have already shown you some big time upside.
19:22And now he's got a big offensive coordinator coming in here with Mike McDaniel, who we have very high expectations for.
19:28So Debro, walk me through your Jalen Hurts take.
19:30And then maybe a guy that you want to move down a little bit, because I feel like you're the Debbie Downer on the show today.
19:38Yeah. So I want to bump Jalen Hurts up because if we're talking about bounce back and we're talking about all these
19:44different things about what could go right for a quarterback, then I feel like Jalen Hurts needs to be in that conversation.
19:50And I'm more willing to bet on Jalen Hurts than Lamar Jackson at this point.
19:54Because again, Jake has talked about this in previous shows.
19:56The Jalen Hurts narrative is kind of funny, man.
19:59It's like, oh, just because he doesn't throw over the middle of the field doesn't mean that he can't.
20:04He's had god awful OCs over the last two years, like Kevin Petulo, horrible.
20:08Brian Johnson, horrible. He hasn't had a good one since Shane Stokian.
20:11So if Sean Mannion comes in, and I know there's just as much risk with him versus Declan Doyle, but it's not
20:17baked into the price of Jalen Hurts. And we've seen Jalen Hurts.
20:21It's not just, oh, the rushing yardage, it's the touchdowns.
20:23And everybody's like, oh, well, what if he doesn't get back to 13 or 14 rushing touchdowns?
20:28Okay, well, if he spikes 10 to 12, I mean, he was at freaking eight last year.
20:33The other thing we've never gotten out of Jalen Hurts, never.
20:36We have never gotten a 30 passing touchdown season out of Jalen Hurts.
20:39What if that's this year, guys? We've seen Jalen Hurts be QB1 in fantasy points per game.
20:44Hard to imagine that with the way the structure of the roster is, based on how heavy I think they got traded on Saquon.
20:50Because they added more offensive playmakers? That's hard to imagine that?
20:53No, because they're probably losing their best one in A.J.
20:56Brown, who, for whatever reason... Is he their best one right now at this point of his career?
21:01I'm going to say yes to him. I don't know what Jake says to that.
21:05Jake, do you say yes? Is A.J. Brown still elite for you?
21:08I think he is. I would still take him over Devonta Smith or anything they have.
21:13And that's coming from somebody who's argued for Lemon.
21:15I mean, we're talking about... I like Lemon. He's only about to turn 29.
21:19So, like, I'm not putting A.J. Brown out the pasture yet.
21:22I think the argument that Debra should have made is that A.J.
21:25Brown and Dallas Goddard were not healthy for half the season combined.
21:29Like, they missed a lot. So, like, Devonta Smith was the only one out there the entire time.
21:34He even got banged up a few times. So, like, he was dealing with a lot of injuries, including the offensive line.
21:40So, there you go. There was a little bit more nuggets for you.
21:43Even though I thought I was the high person on Jalen Hurts.
21:46Clearly, I'm not. Not enough. Not where Derek Brown wants to live in that rarefied air of Jalen Hurts.
21:52So, Debra, obviously, you know, Hurts, a couple more rushing touchdowns, some better health, and maybe a little bit of an injection
21:58of youth with guys like Makai Lemon, who I think the three of us are all very high on.
22:03And I'm sure we're going to ruin his ADP.
22:05I'm sorry in advance, everybody. I apologize. We do our best here.
22:09Not going to make a discount anymore. Yeah. Forget that discount.
22:12Do some early drafting if you want the discount.
22:14But I know that you also have concerns about Justin Herbert, which I'm curious about to the why.
22:19Because, to me, I thought this was like one of the great performances of last year, just all around.
22:24Playing hurt. Playing with an offensive line that fell apart.
22:27Playing without a consistent running game because of all the injuries they had there.
22:31Playing with a wide receiver core of old farts and guys who really just weren't consistent week to week.
22:36And now, you know, you brought in some better talent.
22:39You've got a healthy Omari in Hampton. You've got an OC here.
22:42Like, to me, I feel like the yards after carry that Hampton could help pad his stats with is really nice.
22:48The two tackles being back and healthy really change what you might be able to do here.
22:52But why do you see Herbert maybe on a negative slide?
22:55Well, for me, with Herbert, it's not so much it's negative.
22:58It's I don't know what kind of passing volume we get out of this offense.
23:03Which version of Mike McDaniel do we get? Do we get the last two years and he was 25th and 26th and
23:09running an offense that was 25th and 26th in neutral passing rate?
23:12Or do we get the two previous years in Miami where he was 8th and 11th?
23:16And how much of Harbaugh wanting to protect Herbert?
23:19How much of this is what they want to be as an offense and as a team?
23:23I don't know, guys. And if the passing volume is more towards the lower end of the league and not top 12,
23:29then that's where it gets dicey for me with Herbert and putting him as a locked in top 10 quarterback.
23:35When in two of his last four seasons, he's been outside the top 12 quarterbacks and fantasy points per game.
23:40Last year, he had a career high with 31 rushing yards per game.
23:44Although you be kind of rewind every season before that, he never eclipsed more than 18.
23:48So we also got like the confluence of a lot of good things from Greg Roman at the beginning of the season in a pass happy offense.
23:56Justin Herbert was running more. We never run that much in his career to this point.
24:00Does the rushing keep up? And how much passing volume do we get?
24:04Because if we don't get a ton of passing volume, he's going to have to be crazy efficient.
24:09And that's not even talking about, yes, I think Joe all coming back is really, really good.
24:13The history of guys coming back from Patellar tendon injuries for Rashawn Slater is God awful.
24:18So I don't even know what we see out of Slater this year.
24:21That's fair. That's fair. Well, the hope is for the best there.
24:24Jake, I want to talk to you about Jackson Dart guy last year that did get to take the reins earlier than,
24:30you know, maybe expected, but not as early as maybe Derek Brown and I want it.
24:35But Jackson Dart last year finished with 17.6 fantasy points per game.
24:38That was good enough for 14th overall. And when you're starting to look at Jackson Dart this year and projecting what's going
24:44to happen, it is still kind of tricky because you have a scenario where Malik Navers didn't have that cleanup surgery.
24:50Varying reports will tell you different things. Some people will tell you, oh, that's good.
24:54That means everything's going to be really much better when he starts to, you know, fully ramp up.
24:59Other people tell you, well, it's just going to delay the timeline.
25:02You've got Cam Scadaboo coming back from an injury.
25:05You've got a new head coach, new system, new all things happening around him and some new weapons like Isaiah Likely and
25:11Malachi Fields and all the other guys we could talk about.
25:14So Jackson Dart, obviously another Russian quarterback. We love that from fantasy.
25:17At the same time, what does it look like for him in terms of his development year two?
25:22Are we going to see another sophomore slump? Is he too much of an injury risk for you?
25:27Or are you willing to bet that Jackson Dart can do enough here to crack the fantasy points per game of the top 12 guys here?
25:34Because clearly the consensus believes that. Well, we're also talking about a new offense too.
25:38And real quick to go to Herbert, I'm also worried the efficiency.
25:41So they've been the fourth lowest pace the Chargers were the last two seasons.
25:45So he has to be efficient. Not that he can't be, but he has to be efficient.
25:50There's a little bit difference here when it comes to Jackson.
25:53That's why actually I agree a little bit. Justin Herbert, I still am in this tier, but just a little bit lower.
25:59Jackson Dart, I think should be a little bit higher.
26:02Because if you look at last year and what he did, and I've already seen people on another show that we've done
26:08when people are like, oh, no Malik neighbors. I can't believe you think Jackson Dart.
26:12Do you know how many games he played with Malik neighbors last year?
26:15A big fat one. I was going to say, do you know what Malik neighbors did in that game?
26:20No, Malik neighbors didn't even do much in that game.
26:23Yeah. Like, I think he would have three or four targets.
26:26So like, it wasn't even like he played with, he played with Darius Slayton, Wanda Robinson, who all like injuries there.
26:32Theo Johnson and a bunch of jokers out there the entire season.
26:35Everybody's like, oh, it's going to be so terrible.
26:38Even if Malik neighbors isn't ready till October, he's already right now.
26:41He has a better collection of weapons that he did last year.
26:44And everybody also wants to poop all over the situation with Matt Nagy and Greg Groman.
26:49That's the part that I think people are also missing.
26:51With Matt Nagy and Greg Groman. This is not just Matt Nagy.
26:55They brought in both because you know what Harbaugh did?
26:57He said, hey, guess what? Maggie's great at the passing game.
27:00Sucks at running. Greg Groman, great in the run game.
27:03Sucks at passing. Let's bring him in and ask him to do one thing each and leave the other thing that they suck at alone.
27:10And now you're going to get the best of both worlds.
27:13And I know it's a lot of projecting. We have, how does it work?
27:17You let Nagy design. He's still going to be a play caller.
27:20But you let him design the passing game. Signing late.
27:23Roman's bringing his Roman style rushing off as he designs that side of the offense.
27:27Nagy's still the play caller. But I'm pretty sure that Harbaugh with his clout brought him in.
27:32If they can't work together, he would have never brought him in together.
27:35Like you don't bring in Roman. Roman at this point of his career is not being like, oh yeah, I'm going to be third in line.
27:42Unless he's willing. Like he understands the connection that's going to be made here.
27:46So I think you're looking at, basically let's take the, what people might not know about both.
27:51You're kind of looking at an Andy Reid-ish kind of West Coast offense-ish.
27:54Which spread, RPO heavy, some two tight end sets, shifts, zone.
27:57Like they're going to do everything they can to maximize Jackson Dart and the weapons around them.
28:02But the biggest part we haven't even talked about here, it's the rushing.
28:05Like we're going to get what we just talked about with these other quarterbacks.
28:09Seven, 800 yards. He's going to call, Josh Allen, he's going to call his own number.
28:14We just saw it last year. He's like, hey, I'm going to get hurt three times.
28:18I don't care. I'm going to keep doing it.
28:21Like at some point, I know that people are going to be like, well, that's my argument against him.
28:26And that's fine. You don't have to take him.
28:28He is an injury risk. Cam Scadaboo, if he's ready week one, is an injury risk because he sees a brick wall
28:34and runs into that instead of the open lane.
28:37So that's the biggest problem here is that with Jackson Dart, he might get hurt.
28:41But that style is what we want in fantasy.
28:43And that's the biggest part that you talk about a lot of times, Joe, in the playbook, similar to drafting, is that
28:49if I lose Jackson Dart, I go to the waiver wire and find somebody else.
28:53But the fact of what I get Jackson Dart plus that option is going to be better than most anybody in this group.
29:00I understand part of it is saying like, OK, well, I'm going to lose Jackson Dart.
29:04But if you're looking at this group, it's the replacement of the person with Jackson Dart combined that I'm going to get
29:10a better season from than somebody in this range that like, oh, Brock Purdy plays a full 17 games.
29:15Like, yeah, OK, cool. But Jackson Dart plus is probably going to do better.
29:19Did you just call the black book the playbook after writing for it for almost four years, Jake Sealy?
29:24Did I? I'm hurt. That was so cool. Yeah.
29:27You know what? It's your playbook in the black book.
29:30All right. Fair enough. You know what? Here's my take with Jackson Dart in single quarterback leagues.
29:34I love the risk. I'll take it because it's so easy for replacement value, right?
29:38You could go later and get Jordan Love and get Jared Goff.
29:42If you want to get a second quarterback and get somebody else who's a little bit more vanilla and you have that
29:48guy in case Dart doesn't kind of rein in the style.
29:51Dart style is fine. He's just got to avoid contact a little better.
29:54That's all like the aggressiveness to run is not the problem.
29:57The knowledge of when to realize, you know, you don't need that extra.
30:01But it's also just like, OK, the gain, the first down, that's what matters.
30:05Moving the chains is what matters. You trying to be a hero all the time.
30:09That's where you get yourself into danger in the NFL, maybe not so much in college.
30:13And again, that's a transition. So I'm hoping there's a learning curve there.
30:17Yes. I forgot my biggest point. You said his points per game.
30:20It's skewed because he keeps getting counted for those first two games.
30:23I was going to bring this up too. Yeah.
30:26He actually averaged 19.97. Let's just call it 20 because you round up.
30:29He averaged 20 fantasy points per game, which included that basically zero against the Vikings.
30:33So good enough for seventh overall. And right now his ranking is the eighth quarterback right now.
30:38So that's kind of right in line. Depending on the site you play for, that was good for fourth overall to be.
30:44Well, I don't know what side you're playing on.
30:46No, I'm just letting people know. All right. Let's get to the third tier of quarterbacks.
30:51And remember, too, if you've got drafts coming up, especially the rookie drafts, let us help you with all those.
30:56Go to fantasypros.com slash simulator and use the Dynasty Draft Simulator so you can crush all the mocks in just minutes when
31:02you get ready for any of your startup Dynasty Leagues or your rookie drafts.
31:06And if you are MVP or Hall of Fame subscriber here, you can even test trade scenarios.
31:11You can mock with the actual trade draft picks.
31:13It's great. And we've got a three-day free trial going on right now with a premium subscription at fantasypros.com slash Dynasty 26.
31:19Again, free. Three days. Do it three days before your draft to get ready for it.
31:24Fantasypros.com slash Dynasty 26. Use it for all it's worth.
31:26And then when you realize how great it is, just, you know, re-up and then use it for the rest of the season for all your other leagues.
31:34That's a smart thing to do. Don't be a tool.
31:37Use the tools at Fantasy Pros. All right. Let's go to the third tier of quarterbacks here.
31:41And this one's going to be really interesting. Trevor Lawrence at 10.
31:45And they have Dak Prescott at 11. Goodyear, bad year, Dak Prescott.
31:48That is the dumbest thing ever. If you're drafting off Goodyear, bad year, you're a moron.
31:52Don't do that. If you're avoiding him because, well, last year was the good year and now I got to get out.
31:58It is the dumbest, most nonsensical thing ever. And I just want to dispel that.
32:02And you know it's bad because Debro is just shaking his head yes at me.
32:07So, you know, it's definitely true. Brock Purdy at 12.
32:09I got some questions about that one. Patrick Mahomes at 13.
32:12The MVP of the league, Matthew Stafford at 14.
32:15Coming off a season where he was first in everything, which I think is really interesting.
32:19He's all the way at 14. And then Bo Nix at 15, who also, it ain't pretty all the time with Bo Nix.
32:25And maybe it doesn't materialize all that much in the first half of games.
32:29But by golly, by the end of the game, somehow those fantasy points are there every single week.
32:34That's right. By golly. That's all the Ted Lasso stuff, you know, this morning for me.
32:39I mean, gee whiz. Probably. Gee whiz and by golly.
32:41All right. So, Jake, let's start with Trevor Lawrence here.
32:44Because here's my thing with Trevor Lawrence. It took a little while.
32:47I want to give him a grace period, new offense, Liam Cohn, new coach, all that stuff.
32:52Most of the damage came towards the end of the year for Trevor Lawrence.
32:56It was a really good run at the end of the year.
32:59It was also a lot of the stats got petted by that.
33:02He won a huge game against the Jets. And it was massive.
33:06It was also the only 300-yard game he had all year.
33:09So, it's not exactly prolific passing attack. And now you're going to take Travis Etienne out of that offense and replace him with Chris Rodriguez and Bashel Tootin.
33:16And we don't know how that runs. I have legitimate concerns about Trevor Lawrence.
33:20I think everybody was just waiting so long for a big breakout kind of season.
33:24And then we kind of got it, most of it in the second half.
33:28But I think there's other quarterbacks. I mean, if you're asking me, I'd rather go into fantasy next year with Matthew Stafford
33:34for all of his back issues in the single quarterback league.
33:37Sorry. That's still the Rams last time I checked.
33:40They still got Puka Nakua. They still got Devontae Adams.
33:42This is a guy coming off an MVP season.
33:45He looked pretty good to me last year. Jake, what's your take on Trevor Lawrence?
33:49Because, again, this is another one that really confuses me.
33:52I'll give you a couple ones again here. Quarterbacks, and I'm going all the way back to week five.
33:57Not the end of the season because you're right.
33:59That's what the easy approach everybody takes with Trevor Lawrence is like, oh, blah, blah.
34:03You had a 40- and 30-point game in there.
34:06So, of course, when you have over 70, almost 80 points in two games, you're going to rank number one on a lot of things.
34:13Let's go back to week five. Yeah, because the bigger thing I talk about years ago with the people remember Eli Manning
34:19when they made their offensive coordinator change. And they said for somebody that's been playing in the league that long, it takes
34:25four, six, maybe even eight weeks when you have that massive of an overhaul in your offense for the quarterback to get
34:31comfortable and start hitting it the way that they want to see it.
34:34It took them four weeks because from week five on, more quarterbacks and fancy points, one.
34:39More points per game because there's buys in there, one.
34:41More rushing touchdowns, one. More rushing and everything. Interesting.
34:44It's Josh Allen, by the way, for all of those over Trevor Lawrence.
34:48He was number two. And that's why I want to argue that Trevor Lawrence doesn't necessarily need to be too much higher.
34:54But I put him to tear above this because it took for all this time that everybody wanted to see Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence, Trevor Lawrence.
35:01Are you a generational talent? What happened to you?
35:03We're ready to write off his career. Liam Cohen.
35:06Liam Cohen? I don't know. Liam Cohen comes in and stalls his offense.
35:09You slip back again into the voice. I know.
35:12Why? I don't know. I've been practicing. I don't know.
35:14Practicing. I can't do his. And it's a very upsetting to me and the listeners.
35:18When it comes down to it, we finally got what Trevor Lawrence can do in the NFL.
35:23And it's also why I brought up the rushing touchdowns is because time and again, what I was saying about Trevor Lawrence.
35:29And when I say what I was saying, that's not the victory lap.
35:33I've been wrong on people before. But it's true about all quarterbacks.
35:36And this is why I want to break it out for everybody out there.
35:40Ones that can run. And I don't even mean like just 50 yards over a season.
35:44I mean like 3, 4, 500 yards. Like Baker Mayfield's best season of the two past season and best year to his career.
35:50Bryce Young, when he started playing somewhat well. Jacksonville.
35:53These quarterbacks. And if you watched Trevor Lawrence at Clemson, when he ran, it was because he was comfortable.
35:58Because he was seeing the field and he said, you know what?
36:01It's not there. I'm taking off. He started doing that with Jacksonville last year because he was comfortable because he was also
36:07hitting Parker Washington later in the season. Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas, as much as we bemoan him on this show time and
36:13time and time again of what happened to him after all the collection of talent there.
36:18Because it's Trevor Lawrence going back to Clemson. It's not just the running.
36:21It's also getting those first and second reads out, hitting them quickly, getting them open, and getting the yards after the catch.
36:27And we saw the Trevor Lawrence we had been waiting for since he was drafted.
36:32The generational talent that never fulfilled. And now nobody really wants him.
36:35And I'm like, that's why I'm okay with him.
36:37Because I have him in that tier just above this.
36:40At the end of it, to be clear. But I'm willing to wait on quarterback, even all the guys that we've talked about so far.
36:47Because it seems like, and I'm not saying I'm right, you're wrong, Joe.
36:50It's just it seems like a lot of people have your opinion, too.
36:54It's like, eh, I don't know if he can do it again.
36:57There's a lot of questions there. So I'll be happy to take him in the mid-rounds as somebody who, by the way,
37:03over the entire season, finished his top five quarterback.
37:06And we finally got the Trevor Lawrence we wanted.
37:08We did. Well, again, when you have a game, excuse me, where you have for, you know, 330 yards and five touchdowns in one game towards the end.
37:16You have a couple of three touchdown performances. Three of them, actually, on top of that from week 12 on.
37:21Again, some lesser opponents, too. Let's be honest. Arizona Cardinals.
37:24You're pounding away on the Tennessee Titans in week 18.
37:27You know, like there are some games there where, you know, and the opponents.
37:31I do think the context matters. By the way, speaking of context, you are correct, Jake Seeley.
37:35Trevor Lawrence was QB1 from week five in fantasy points per game all the way to the end of the season.
37:41Do you know who was number two? You want to guess?
37:44Check out. I guess. Matthew Stafford. 21.9. My argument.
37:46Well, here. Which is the MVP guy. The old fart.
37:49Matt Stafford. Still getting it done. Go ahead. Go ahead.
37:52Well, do you want to fight your battle for you?
37:55You wanted to choose your champion? I'm Matthew Stafford.
37:57Let's throw out. Let's just throw out the 44-point game.
38:00Let's just. It never happened. He scored zero that week.
38:03He's still QB7 in fantasy points per game. Fair.
38:05I'm not trying to say that Trevor Lawrence. Now I'm Derek Brown on this show.
38:09I'm not saying Trevor Lawrence can't be good. I'm saying I have concerns about that second year.
38:14You know, sometimes you get that. But everything's new.
38:16Everything's clicking. You're feeling good about things. And they kind of didn't have the expectations.
38:20I think expectations were low because it was a transition year.
38:23And they outperformed their expectations. Stop waiting for the shoot-a-trop.
38:26Embrace happiness, Joe. I want to embrace happiness. He's a Liam Cohen-ator.
38:29But it's the Jaguars. He can. He's a Liam Cohen-ator.
38:32He does not like Liam Cohen. He never has.
38:35You know what? I did say as a head coach, I had massive concerns about him as a head coach.
38:40Yeah, I know. I remember it. And I just want to see it.
38:44I also said the same thing about Mike McDaniel as a head coach.
38:47And everyone thought I was nuts. Right? I said he's a great offensive mind.
38:51Head coach, I don't know. I think it's going to flame out.
38:54I think it's going to burn bright and flame out.
38:57And I kind of feel like it burned bright and flamed out.
39:00Now he's back in his wheelhouse. All right, D-Bro.
39:03There's your chance. I've been waiting there with the bat to take a swing at me on Matthew Stafford.
39:08So go ahead. So the back issues are just not a worry for you, Joe.
39:12Of course they are. But, I mean, he's 38 years old with a back issue coming off of here where he led
39:18the league in passing and led the league in passing yards and led the league in passing touchdowns.
39:23And he plays for Sean McVay. And if he doesn't play a freaking snap in the preseason again, I ain't worried about it now.
39:30Okay, so we're not worried about the back issues.
39:32We're also not worried about Puka Takua. He's off-field stuff or his injury issues.
39:36We're not worried about Devontae Adams' injury issues and being another year old.
39:40But can't we do this for every team? Can't we do that for the Jaguars, too?
39:44Can't we look and say, are we not worried that Brian Thomas is a non-persona guy in this?
39:49No, no, no. That we don't know. No, we can't.
39:52So you're not worried that you're taking Travis Etienne out of this offense, or excuse me, HN, out of this offense, who
39:58was so important to this offense running last year?
40:00Who was so recklessly inefficient on the ground? That Travis Etienne?
40:03That's the same way we're talking about, right? You can call him inefficient if you want.
40:07He had 300-plus yards after catch last season's totals, and that was one of the top 10 in the league.
40:13I'll pull up every single tackle-breaking metric I care about you, and I'm telling you Travis Etienne was one of the most inefficient running backs in the NFL.
40:21No, I'm not worried about him at all. Okay.
40:23But getting back to Stafford, this offense is top-heavy, incredibly top-heavy.
40:26You're so worried about Brock Purdy and the 49ers staying healthy, but we're not worried about the Rams staying healthy.
40:32We're not worried about Stafford staying healthy. We're not worried about a quarterback that if you want to excuse the back of each one.
40:38There's a difference. Can I tell you what the difference is?
40:41Can I tell you what the difference is? Well, I want to address each one.
40:45Go ahead. Because you're throwing the stuff. I haven't even gotten to the statistical things outside of that, but go ahead.
40:51Sure. All right. Well, here you go. I want to talk about this one because, yes, I'm worried equally about the 49ers,
40:57and the difference is one of those two quarterbacks is headed for the Hall of Fame, and if you give that quarterback
41:03still that same system with whatever, he will find ways.
41:06What does the Hall of Fame matter when he's almost 40?
41:09We're talking about age and interest. Matthew Stafford is one of the great quarterbacks this league has seen, and it's unfortunate that
41:15he played most of his career in Detroit where people just didn't understand that.
41:19But to compare him to Brock Purdy, the ultimate system quarterback, who, again, I'm not taking shots.
41:23He's done a good job in that role, in that offense.
41:26But when you can throw Mack Jones into that offense and it looks just as efficient, color me unimpressed about Brock Purdy.
41:32So the difference is Brock Purdy, also a guy that's had some injuries last year.
41:36Who played more games last year, by the way?
41:39Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford? Just out of curiosity.
41:41My conversation here is not pro-Brock Purdy. It's that you're dismissing the injury and the risks around one player while talking about it with another player.
41:48They're basically the same kind of thing. I'm not saying they're equivalent as far as talent.
41:53The Hall of Fame doesn't even freaking matter to me.
41:56And outside of Stafford, so last year, he was QB4 in fantasy points per game.
42:00By the way, I was in on Stafford last year.
42:02So was I. Prior to that, QB26, QB14, QB28, QB11, QB21.
42:05So we want to pay for the MVP season.
42:08We're not going to worry about that. We're not going to worry also about the fact of last year, Joe, he set
42:14a career high in passing touchdown rate with an insane 7.7%.
42:17His previous high was his first year with the Rams of 6.8%.
42:20All of these things scream, Matthew Stafford can be very good and still lead the Rams to the promised land if he could stay healthy.
42:27But maybe it's not NBA caliber. And maybe it's not top five.
42:30And maybe it's not QB1 status. That doesn't mean that he can't be good in NFL talk and putting wins and all that kind of stuff.
42:37I love that you only went back to the season where in 2022, he only played nine games.
42:42I went back all the way to 2020, bro.
42:45Well, in 2021, it was QB5 where he threw for 4,800 yards and 41 touchdowns.
42:49So let's not. I mean, when Trevor Lawrence starts sniffing 40 touchdown seasons, call me.
42:53Call me. Let me know how that goes. And outside of that year, 24, 26.
42:57So we're good. For you, Debra. I like this kind of show.
43:00The 7.7% touchdown to attempt percentage. Insane. Well, hold on.
43:03I'll give you some more for it. It's the sixth highest in the past 10 years.
43:07And of anybody who's actually reached just 7%, there's only been one quarterback who's gone over 7% the following season.
43:13One. That entire time. Nope. You want to guess, Joe?
43:16Oof. Well, Russ came close. Russ came close, actually.
43:18So it's a efficiency metric kind of a quarterback?
43:21Is that what we're looking at? It's the last 10 years.
43:24I'll give you a giant hint. We weren't even talking about him until yesterday.
43:27Oh, Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers did in 2020 and 2021.
43:30Yeah, another old fart. 9.1 and then 7%. Yeah, another old fart who knows how to play the quarterback.
43:35But even he, he dropped from 9.1 to 7 the year after.
43:39And look, I'm not trying to argue that Matthew Stafford is a top five quarterback or even a top 10 quarterback.
43:44What I'm trying to argue is the point of this notion that Trevor Lawrence has turned a corner forever and that now everything is just sunshine and roses.
43:52Again, go look at the context of the opponents.
43:55The games against the Cardinals, the games against the Jets and the games against the Tennessee Titans in that span after week
44:0112 had a huge matter upon all of those stats and that big average jumping up.
44:05And if you want to pretend like that's not important, all those teams that quit, all the teams that really weren't playing for anything.
44:12I mean, come on. Like, let's let's not be super impressed that everything's turned fantastic for Lawrence going forward.
44:17I hope it does in Denver, the wildcard game against Buffalo, like just like the numbers were still there.
44:22Look, I will. I will continue to say that if you press me next year for a QB, you know, who's going to finish higher there?
44:29Matthew Stafford or Trevor Lawrence? I'll still put that.
44:32I think here I'll tell you my simplest version of it.
44:35It's like I'm not super like it has to be Lawrence or hey, it has to be Stafford.
44:39I think my biggest takeaway is the floor for both.
44:42If they lose anything in the arm department, Lawrence still has the legs.
44:46And that's where it comes down to for me.
44:48And that is that might be the best argument for that.
44:51That might be the best argument for Trevor Lawrence.
44:54And I accept that. Maybe the answer is actually Dak Prescott and a deep compliment weapons and a deep that's the other thing too.
45:00When you get into this tier and you start to look at Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahomes coming off
45:06an injury to I mean, we didn't really get into Patrick Mahomes much, but again, so much of Patrick Mahomes value is
45:12unknown right now because he's going to play. Here's the very telling thing that I don't know if you guys caught this
45:18this weekend on Mahomes, but I saw an Andy Reid interview.
45:21Did you guys catch the Andy Reid interview that he did?
45:24No. So they asked him about staff, excuse me, about Mahomes.
45:27And he said, well, he's working so hard and it's amazing how hard this guy works.
45:32Now, what I take that to mean is you and I, all of us all know the same thing.
45:37When a guy is looking at week one, where they always say, well, we're hoping he's back on the field for week
45:43one and we're looking, we're shooting for it. We're aiming for a week.
45:46That's all that they talk about. When a guy is not, all they talk about is the other thing, which is he's
45:53working so hard and it's amazing the progress he's made and all that stuff.
45:56So that to me tells me that conversation we had on tailgate the other day.
46:00I was like, what did I talk about? He's starting.
46:03He's going to start on the go back and go back and watch that show.
46:07Everybody on tailgate NFL. We had a great conversation about this first four weeks.
46:11You can give Mahomes off, give him the bye week, start him after that and just roll.
46:16And hopefully he's healthy the rest of the time.
46:18And if you could just go two and two in those games, those first four games, there you go.
46:23There you have it. All right, let's get to this next tier here.
46:27Tier four, a mix bag here. This is more of the super flex tier that we're in here too.
46:32So Jared Goff at 16, Kyler Murray, fascinating value at 17.
46:35I'll be honest with you. Like as a QB two, I'm fascinated, especially if QB one really goes my way in a
46:41super flex to just kind of throw a dart on Kyler Murray playing for his career.
46:46Uh, with Justin Jefferson, arguably the best wide receiver on the planet.
46:49Jordan Love, 18 Malik Willis at 19 Tyler Shuck at 20 Baker Mayfield at 21 CJ Stroud at 22 Sam Darnold at
46:5523 Bryce Young at 24 Cam Ward at 25.
46:57I don't think anything's egregious here, but I do want to ask you this question here, Jake about Baker Mayfield because Baker
47:03Mayfield last year, first couple weeks of the season was leading the race for MVP injuries derailed him.
47:08Now we're looking at a scenario where he doesn't have Mike Evans anymore.
47:12That's okay. We have a Buka, but again, a little bit of an unknown there.
47:16Chris Godwin's health is feel like annually an unknown Bucky Irving's health.
47:19I do not like the trend of this. I got to tell you this, that really is the big one that concerns me.
47:26Talk to me about Baker Mayfield. Is this the guy that you, you think the stock is in a goodbye or a goodbye?
47:32Like adios. I don't want to see it. Uh, good be you.
47:35Why? Like I'm buying, I don't understand why he's all the way down here because we just basically saw his worst season
47:41in a while and I'm not expecting this is another one.
47:44I'm pretty sure that it bring it back. Joe did it once already.
47:48Uh, two years ago is going to be anomalous.
47:50That's not going to be a year we ever see from him again, but at the same time, if he just repeats
47:56last year, we're still talking about QB 17, 18, 19 on any given year.
48:00Like that's a route right around the range of those fancy points per game.
48:04He's 21. So you're getting them below the floor where there's upside here, where I really think it comes down to, yeah,
48:10you mentioned the injuries and it was everybody in this team.
48:13Like they were, they were snake bitten last year and it came down to wide receiver, like offense, everybody dealt with injuries.
48:19And I'm looking at Zach Robinson coming in and what do we know about Zach Robinson?
48:23Oh, that Sean McVay tree and some three wide old, why do you draft Ted Hurst when you have all these options
48:29and probably don't see a lot from Ted Hurst until year three or whatever, but they already did it with McMillan.
48:35You were like, well, why do you keep drafting wide receivers?
48:38Because it's a very three wide heavy offense that you're going to see a lot of the similarities from Sean McVay carried over from Zach Robinson.
48:45You're going to see a book of Godwin McMillan down to Ted Hurst down to the other extraneous parts on this team.
48:51And I get what you're saying about Bucky Irving, but I think that's why they signed Kenneth Gingwell for insurance their purposes,
48:57but also a lot of pre-snap motion in this offense.
49:00And what do we know? We've proven over the last couple of years in fantasy, especially when it comes to pre-snap motion,
49:06stock up when you're using pre-snap motion for the quarterbacks and wide receivers.
49:10So I'm not saying go get Baker Mayfield, but in a super flex or as your second quarterback to take that flyer
49:16on because he costs so little, he costs worse than his basically his floor.
49:19And you can get them for the upside of that.
49:22No top 10, maybe a little aggressive, but he did throw 40 touchdowns or close to it or whatever it was that year, but 4,500 yards.
49:29He can get 4,000 yards back to 30 touchdowns.
49:32He'll be in the QB1 conversation because he's even running a little bit more late in his career, which is kind of weird too.
49:38Yeah, it is. I will say this. I will have a lot of Kenneth Gingwell this year.
49:43I'm just going to be all over that early, especially best ball drafts.
49:46I think it's a good, I think it's a good bye B-U-Y to Jason.
49:5041 touchdowns. I just double checked. I thought it was 40 on the nose.
49:54Wow. You're an embarrassment to everyone. Let's talk about Malik Willis here.
49:57That has nothing to do with missing stats. That's true.
50:00That's true. It's been way before that, Jake. Hearts.
50:03Love you. All right. Let's talk about Malik Willis here for a second because this is one where the stock was kind
50:09of soaring for a little while here, especially in the dynasty leagues and all this stuff.
50:13And then everybody started like the harsh reality of the Dolphins rebuild, I think really set into everybody.
50:18And now everybody in redraft leagues has to figure out, okay, what is this value with him?
50:23Now, the good news is A-Chan got his money.
50:25So we're not having any holdout situations because that to me was the biggest red flag.
50:29I was like, oh my God. If he holds out and he comes in late and he gets hurt, I don't know
50:35what the Dolphins are going to be able to do.
50:38But talk to me about Malik Willis because I know everybody just loves the rushing upside of him.
50:43Is that enough at 19 where you want to move him up your tier here, Debra?
50:48Yes. That's essentially plenty enough. I mean, we look at what Malik Willis does.
50:51Like, again, we go back to the conversation we had earlier on this show.
50:55If he runs for 700, 800, 900 yards, that's enough to vault him up.
50:59He should be in a tier higher than this.
51:01Like, in six career starts for Malik Willis, he's averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game.
51:06Over the last three years amongst quarterbacks, that would rank first, fourth, and third.
51:09So, yes, he's going to run. We know he's going to run.
51:13If the weapons are better, the offensive line plays better than anybody's expecting, he should be higher than this.
51:18The rushing itself should make him a top 15 quarterback.
51:21Jake, what are your thoughts on Malik Willis? Because, again, this Dolphins roster is just, it's really tough from a fantasy perspective to get excited about it.
51:28Plus, it's a tough division, and you're looking up at the Bills and the Pats.
51:32And, I mean, even to a certain extent, maybe you're looking up at the Jets at this point, too.
51:37Jets had a pretty solid draft. What are your thoughts on Malik Willis?
51:41Do you think the rushing equity is enough regardless in fantasy, or do you think that's just the only dimension to the
51:47game and it might not be enough for him to kind of move up from this tier?
51:52The rushing's added dimension to the game, but that's why he's a worthy flyer because, and we don't need to run him
51:58down because we've been sitting here all day, but if you just look at Malik Willis' sample, and it's a super small
52:04sample, so some of those are going to get skewed, but he does check out in a lot of metrics.
52:09And he's actually near the top of the league in some of the big play throws and stuff like that.
52:15The biggest question that you said is, I think Bobby Slowick calling plays potentially, like it sounds like that's what's going to
52:21happen, is that that's a question mark too. We saw that, how well that worked with the Texans.
52:25But all that being said is, there's been some good, there's been some bad.
52:29There's been some good and there's been some bad from Malik Willis, but I think the bigger takeaway from him as a
52:35player is that this is what needed to happen.
52:38He needed to sit in the league and learn that he was raw coming out of Liberty.
52:42There was a lot to like from him, and there's a lot of aspects of everything.
52:47There's aspects of the talent from him, the talent on the roster, and from Bobby Slowick.
52:51Are we going to get the goods? Are we going to get all the bads and potentially just blows up in our face?
52:58But down far, this far down the list to take, you get the added Russian dimension where if he just can be
53:04a capable quarterback, then yeah, I think it's worth the flyer.
53:07The biggest question, like you said, I think it just comes down to is his number one, potentially Caleb Douglas, who I
53:13think we were all shocked by how high he was drafted.
53:16Last tier here. This is just kind of the fun tier.
53:19This is the third quarterbacks kind of scenario. So Daniel Jones at 26, obviously unknown there with the injury return.
53:24Jacoby Brissett, again, pretty good season from him. He's got a lot of weapons.
53:28He's got the job. I'm not really worried about Carson Beck, to be honest.
53:32Fernando Mendoza at 28, eventually he'll take that job over.
53:34Gino Smith at 29, eventually he'll give that job up.
53:37Michael Penix at 30. Shador Sanders at 31. Tua Tungavailo at 32.
53:40So you got your QB battlers down here, along with Aaron Rodgers.
53:44Ty Simpson at 34. Again, that's a break glass, and I'm still not sold on that.
53:48Kirk Cousins, Deshaun Watson, and J.J. McCarthy, which is if everything falls apart for the Vikings.
53:53So, Debro, talk to me about the Brown situation here, because it is another year where the Brown situation at quarterback is
53:59a question mark, a big fat question mark. Deshaun Watson still getting paid.
54:02Shador Sanders did show you, you know, a little bit last year in some spurts.
54:06So what's your take on this Browns QB situation?
54:09Is there a guy here that you think has some maybe lower rent, rent, super flex appeal?
54:13Yes. I want to be drafting Shador Sanders a ton this year.
54:17If he wins that job, I mean, we just talked about like the Browns kind of ace the offseason.
54:22They ace the draft. They added Casey Concepcion, Denzel Boston, to Jerry Judy, Harold Fannin, a rebuilt offensive line that he might
54:28actually have clean pockets to throw from if he wins this job.
54:31In the seven starts that Shador Sanders had last year, he was pressured at the third highest rate in the league on 50.4% of his dropbacks.
54:38When he had time and he was able to uncork the deep ball, he was really freaking good.
54:43Amongst 26 qualifying quarterbacks, at least 15 deep ball attempts, guys.
54:46Third highest accurate throw rate, 13th a catchable target rate, the influx of weapons, the blocking help on the big, uh, in front of him.
54:53If the Browns can field an improved offense, which I think they can, and he wins this job, Shador Sanders could be
54:59a fantastic QB3 for super flex leagues. Jake, only one quarterback in this grouping, if you look from weeks one through 10, was a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
55:07He had 20 points per game on average, and it's Daniel Jones.
55:10The question is, the giant injury. And as the now president, the fact of the Daniel Jones fan club, because I hate
55:16Derek Brown and he's made me into this Daniel Jones.
55:19You hate yourself for loving Daniel Jones. It's not my fault.
55:22I hate myself for loving you yet. We're friends.
55:24So Daniel Jones is a big unknown. The question is at this current ADP in this current ranking, is he intriguing to
55:30you or is it just stay away based on the injury?
55:33So Joe knows me long enough to know when I said goodbye to the giants.
55:37And I was already tired of the giants. And then they drafted Daniel Jones.
55:41I said, you know what? I'm going to give him one year to prove me wrong.
55:46And they didn't. And I said, I'm out of here.
55:48I'm done with this organization. Fortunately, it looks like they got their heads on right in the front office.
55:53And we might be turning the corner here. Not saying we as in, we as in.
55:58Oh, it sounds like we're back in with the giants.
56:01Oh, all that Royal. We are turning the corner for being supportive of that team.
56:05As in like, what? No, I will never call myself.
56:07We part of that. They have to, they have to ask me to come back.
56:12Anyway, you go back to my friend. I'm saying we've gone so far, Joe.
56:15Like I was the Daniel Jones hater coming out of college.
56:18I was the Daniel Jones hater in NFL. I was Daniel Jones, Daniel.
56:22And now we've come full circle. And all of a sudden I'm the one supporting Daniel Jones because it's the two smartest people in the room.
56:29Look at this heading into the game. He got hurt.
56:32He was QB eight and fancy points per game.
56:34Like you're the entire season until he got hurt.
56:37He was QB eight fancy points per game. I'm not, I'm not a Daniel Jones lover.
56:41Like let's make that clear. Right. But same thing.
56:44He's going to run more importantly. He's not running as much as he used to when he got that 700 yards, but he's running where it's important.
56:51And that's near the goal line with Jonathan Taylor, because that takes so much away from the attention for Daniel Jones that
56:57it's the lesser version of Jalen hurts is like, Hey, guess what?
57:00You're going to focus on this. Well, we're going to take the advantage.
57:04And Daniel Jones is going to go this way.
57:06So you still have a surprise. It's the X Eagles coordinator who does that.
57:10What a shock. Oh, thank you. There you go.
57:13Bonus point there. So thank you. You're just capable pass catcher, which we're going to do the wide receiver show later this week.
57:19And I'm on it. And I actually think that Josh downs is intriguing.
57:22Number two, because he is now the number two with Alec Pierce, Tyler Warren is people forgot how excited everybody was for Tyler Warren last year.
57:30He has weapons. He has a team. The biggest question you said at the top, Joe, does he have health?
57:35And then we're doing this now in may, like, obviously we have time to adjust on Jackson dart, Malik neighbors, cam scatter boot, Daniel Jones.
57:42We could go down the list. We have time to adjust Bucky Irving.
57:45You brought him up earlier. There will be information that we get, but as of today in may for him to be
57:51down here, assuming he's ready for week one is egregious.
57:54No matter if you hate them or love them, he should at least be in the mid teens.
57:59That's all I've been trying to say, Jake Sealy.
58:02And thank you so much for saying it so eloquently and elegantly and putting it in the perfect context, which is, I
58:08don't want to be this guy, but everyone's forcing me to be this guy.
58:11And at least I know I'm not on an Island by myself.
58:15So we're going to leave on this high note.
58:17We're Jake Sealy and I are holding hands. We could be like, you know, when the parents lift a little kid in
58:23between them and Daniel Jones, that could be us.
58:26That'd probably help his leg too. Sunburned and marooned on a desert Island together.
58:29You are, who are the quarterbacks you believe in this year?
58:32Believe everybody. Who are the quarterbacks you believe in?
58:35Drop your comments below here. Subscribe to the YouTube channel over fantasy pros.
58:39We love to hear from you. We love that conversation going.
58:42You hate Matthew Stafford because he's old. You love him because he's old.
58:45You think Daniel Jones is too low on the board.
58:48Whatever you think, drop your comments and let's have a conversation about it.
58:51Gentlemen, great stuff as always. And if you want to check out the rankings, go to fantasy bros.com slash rankings.
58:57So you can see them for yourself and argue away with your friends and enemies about who's high, who's low, who's just right.
59:03That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for Jake Seeley and Derek Brown.
59:08I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids.
59:11Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast.
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