NFC North 2026: Every Team's Ceiling, Floor & Breakout Player (Ep. 2036)
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58 min
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May 29, 2026
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Fri, May 29, 2026
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Episode Transcript
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0:28Park it right here everybody, it's time for the tailgate.
0:31It's me, Joey P, Joe P. Zappia with me, Scott Bogman, and Andrew Erickson.
0:35And today we're going to have some fun. We're going to talk about another division.
0:39This time we're going to move to the NFC, the NFC North.
0:42That's right. One of the most, if not the most competitive divisions in football.
0:46And if you want to find out a little bit more about Josh Jacobs situation, you should probably go listen to our
0:52last show because we had a nice long discussion about that.
0:55It's certainly going to impact today's discussion as well for the Packers.
0:59We're going to talk about, can the Bears win by the skin of their teeth yet again every single game?
1:04Can the Detroit Lions benefit from a little bit easier schedule this season and maybe not out-coach themselves into oblivion?
1:10And of course, we're going to talk about the Minnesota Vikings too and that new quarterback that I've got.
1:15Things are a little icy in that QB room.
1:17I don't know if you boys watch the press conferences.
1:20Boggs, you're chuckling. So I have to imagine you did.
1:23You saw the Kyler Murray. How is it going between you and JJ?
1:27And he's like, oh, you know, I'm just here to answer any questions he's got, blah, blah, blah.
1:32Then they go to JJ McCarthy and he's like, yeah, it's like two guys in high school sitting on the opposite ends of the classroom.
1:39You know, we're just there to learn. The coach is the teacher.
1:42Yikes, Boggs. It's icy there. I love it though.
1:44You know, let's get a little animosity in this competition.
1:47I love it. I'm still a little bit of a believer in JJ McCarthy.
1:51I think, you know, we didn't get to see a really good run last year.
1:55The offensive line had issues. He was hurt constantly.
1:58They kept switching quarterbacks. It was a complete disaster, total meltdown.
2:01But I mean, Kyla Murray is going to whoop him in this competition.
2:04It's not really even close. I kind of agree.
2:07Erickson, I mean, when you watch JJ McCarthy last year, he kind of gave, I mean, that run of his gave a lot of people the runs.
2:14That's how bad it was. It was not great.
2:17Do you think this competition is good for both of these guys?
2:20Because I get the feeling it might be. I think it is because I think ultimately the Vikings are just going to
2:26get, no matter what, better quarterback play than they did last year.
2:30Because I think that you're getting a highly motivated version of Kyla Murray because of him being let go by the Arizona Cardinals.
2:36They're paying him this deal, but he doesn't have any long-term commitment by any NFL team now.
2:41And JJ McCarthy obviously wants to play better than he did last year.
2:44And although yes, last year was mostly bad. He did make some really highlight level throws and some big time throws and
2:50big time moments, especially in the second half of the season.
2:54But obviously the total output from McCarthy was disappointing for what we've seen quarterbacks do in this offense by Kevin O'Connell.
2:59So I think that the Vikings are going to be a much better spot.
3:03And as we'll kind of break it down when we talk about them specifically in the NFC North breakdown.
3:09Yes. And does Kyler keep getting shorter, by the way?
3:11It does. No, his hat's getting larger. The hat he's wearing today.
3:15You do shrink as you get older. It's way up here.
3:18Yeah, tell me about it. But no, but I don't know if you've seen the hat.
3:22He's wearing one of the winter hats, even though it's freaking – I mean, look, I know it's Minnesota, but it's –
3:28Well, you remember last year when they asked him about playing in the cold?
3:32And he's like – or maybe it was two years ago.
3:35And they said – he's like, wait, how cold is it going to be?
3:39He's like, oh, that does sound cold. But they play in the cold, so it should be okay.
3:44That's what I would say. Yeah, I don't blame him.
3:47All right, we're going to talk about the Vikings and all other stuff.
3:50But first on the show today, the headline I want to talk about is the 18-game NFL schedule.
3:55Because they're saying right now in 2027 it's highly unlikely.
3:58Now, that was from Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio.
4:01League officials are still, quote, holding out hope that they can somehow get on track to have this 18-game schedule.
4:06And I think the NFL eventually wants to move itself into a point where they're getting into that president's weekend for the Super Bowl.
4:13Because you have that built-in off day on the Monday.
4:16It will be a very fun Super Bowl weekend.
4:18People can really enjoy the Super Bowl and not have to worry about getting up on Monday to go to work.
4:24And they can really enjoy all their parties and festivities and, you know, really kind of move it out.
4:29Plus, it's a whole other week for NFL football, which means a whole other stream of revenue.
4:34Yes. Joe, are you acting like they want to do this to make it easier for people to watch the Super Bowl?
4:40Oh, no, no, no. And not for more money?
4:43No, they want to do that. We'll add an international game to every team's schedule, Joe.
4:47Which will happen. Which will happen. We will have an international game every single week in the NFL probably by 2030.
4:53That's my guess. It could even be sooner. We'll see how that goes.
4:57But here's Goodell's comments. I want to get your take on this.
5:00So Goodell says about the potential for an 18-game season.
5:03I'm going to quote him here. I don't want to misquote the commish.
5:06One, safety has to be the primary concern, right?
5:09Yeah, right. If you can't do it safely for our players, we're not going to do it.
5:13And that's why I would say it's not inevitable.
5:16So Andrew Erickson, I'm going to call shenanigans on this and say it's absolutely inevitable.
5:20We're of course going to have an 18-game season because of all the reasons Bogman's saying.
5:25It's just a matter of how soon we're going to see it.
5:28So you want to take the over-under on 2028?
5:302028? I think 2028. So for that season, there'll be 18 games.
5:34That's what you're... That's what I'm saying. Yeah. I think there'll be 18 games.
5:38Because look, he said it's the primary concern. He didn't say that safety is the priority.
5:42Like he said, it's the thing that we got to get.
5:45We got to cast this aside so we can make more money.
5:48Like that's what we got to figure out here.
5:51So it's not my fault the players are all getting hurt.
5:54No, no. We all know that just the way they loaded up all these holiday games, you broke it down on the schedule conversation between Joe and Debro.
6:02They care about the money. That's what they want to do.
6:05And they have to save face by talking about these particular things about, well, safety.
6:09We got to make sure the players are safe.
6:12And we're sending guys to Australia. Like, it's like, come on.
6:15So I think that, yeah, by 2028, yeah, I think we'll have an 18-game season and hopefully two bye weeks for every team.
6:21That's the big one, too. The two bye weeks, I feel like we can use now because of the national games.
6:27I mean, you've been like the big two-week bye guy since forever.
6:30It seems like a war of attrition at this point in the NFL.
6:34It does. Where it's just what team can make it to the end healthiest.
6:38Yeah. That is the team that's going to win.
6:40Those are the Seahawks and Patriots were the two healthiest teams last year.
6:44And they win the Super Bowl. They didn't have their quarterback break their ankle the week before the AFC title game.
6:50So, yeah, man, I think if you do this, you absolutely have to add an extra bye week.
6:55So we'll see what happens. But I'm sure the NFL is really concerned with player safety.
6:59Historically known to be player safety first, the NFL, right?
7:02So I don't know. It's just eye rolling. It's all money grab and I hate it.
7:06I just want these guys. I want the best players to play.
7:10That's why I don't want extra games. I want the best players to keep playing every single week so I can watch the best players play.
7:17Otherwise, you know, what are we doing? Would you be a proponent then of an extra round of playoffs again?
7:22Like expanding playoffs then instead of necessarily going to the.
7:25No. That's the way to get another week of revenue without as much attrition on the players is to add one more week of playoffs.
7:32I mean, I think if you just add an extra bye week, you get an extra week.
7:37You know, add an extra bye week for every team.
7:40Doesn't mean you have to skip a whole week for every team.
7:43So let's keep 17 games, but just have the extra bye.
7:46Yeah. Okay. I'm good with that too. Yeah. You eat a whole extra weekend.
7:50I mean, they're already, you know, taking over the Christmas Day game, which is just I hate for the NBA.
7:55And the NBA should respond by not even starting their season until Christmas Day.
7:59It's the only way you can get your whole fan base excited to watch.
8:03Yeah, but they can't do that. I mean, you can't do that.
8:06That's going to put them in a terrible situation by the summertime.
8:10Then you're going to be playing NBA games into July.
8:13Yeah. So what? The NBA is all indoors. Who cares when you play it?
8:16Who cares? Just don't compete against the NFL in the beginning of it.
8:20Yeah, it is kind of crappy that they've... I mean, if you love the NBA tradition of the Christmas Day games, and
8:26as a kid, I used to find it interesting.
8:29But I was very much in the NBA when I was younger.
8:32Now it does feel very much like the NFL is just taking over.
8:36I mean, the Arbor Day game, Flag Day. I mean, Boxing Day.
8:39Like, it's just... I mean, there's an NFL game on every day.
8:42Mother's Day brought to you by the NFL. Are you suggesting that the NFL is the Grinch and they stole Christmas from the NBA?
8:49I think Roger Goodell might be. I can tell you that much.
8:52That's outstanding work, Erickson. Yeah. That's two days in a row for you, Erickson.
8:56It's clear that you've been spending way too much time with a cynical Joe Pizzapia.
9:00I can tell you that much. Just way too much time.
9:03All right. Let's get after it, boys. Let's talk about the Bears.
9:07Before we get to it, remember, this is tailgate.
9:09This is not fantasy pros. It's not betting pros.
9:12This is tailgate NFL. It's friends. It's football. And it's no filters.
9:15That's what we do here. So if you like this and you like this kind of discussion about the NFL, make sure you subscribe to the channel.
9:23Make sure you drop your comments below because you could win our giveaway this month, which is the Jamar Chase jersey.
9:28We're giving it away to some lucky Yahoo out there who wants to hang out and just talk football with us.
9:34Can't win. No, it's not you, Andrew. You can't win it.
9:37Bogman, you can't win it. I can't win it either.
9:40It sucks. But you can win it by subscribing to the channel, dropping your comments below.
9:44And remember, this is from pristineauction.com, the best place this Father's Day upcoming to get all of your stuff from autographed jerseys, autographed helmets.
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10:01I like all the comments I'm seeing. I know a lot of people are enjoying this new channel here, but we just
10:07kind of have big meta discussions about football stuff.
10:09So it's a great way if you just love football and you can't get enough of it to just extend the knowledge and extend the conversation.
10:17And I want to extend that to the Bears, who won every single close game and every single big moment you could possibly imagine.
10:23I mean, it was the cardiac kids or maybe the Cubs.
10:26Would that be better? Because they're Bears. I don't know.
10:29I'll have to work on that metaphor. But I do know this.
10:33The Bears were entertaining last year, which is something you can't say about the Bears.
10:37Now, they still don't have a quarterback ever to throw for 4,000 yards.
10:40Caleb Williams fell just shy. Erickson, I know in our last show that we did together, you really bumped up Caleb Williams quite a bit.
10:47You were really talking about big time, about Caleb taking a whole other step, maybe even challenging for the number one spot overall on our Fantasy Pros podcast.
10:55We talked about that. So let's talk about how that could carry over here to another good year for the Chicago Bears possibly winning this division.
11:02Well, Caleb Williams was one of the few players I pinpointed as my short list of MVP candidates for 2026.
11:08However, what has me kind of pouring a little bit cold water on that?
11:12It's not that he can't do it statistically, because I think that he's going to throw up 4,000 yards this year.
11:17I think this is the first year that happens.
11:20I mean, Joe, he came as close as he could possibly come.
11:23We had 3,900 passing yards last year. Not 4,000.
11:26Okay, yeah. Not 4,000. But I mean, DJ Moore.
11:28And it's an extra game, too. Let's all remember.
11:31It used to be a 16 games. You know, now it's 17 games.
11:34Will it even count if we add an extra game, Joe?
11:37Well, he also- I don't know at this point.
11:40What does that matter? He fell just short of it, despite having the worst completion rate over expectation.
11:45So if that improves in any way, shape, or form, he's going to clearly surpass 4,000 passing yards.
11:50However, the Bears as a whole, I don't think they're going to win the division again.
11:54I don't think they're going to win as many games they did last year.
11:58So I think that kind of hurts Caleb Williams in terms of his MVP candidacy, because what usually goes to the MVP?
12:04Or who usually wins it? It's the quarterback on the team that has the most wins as the number one seed.
12:10That's usually the case of who wins that. And I don't think Caleb is specifically with the Bears because of things you pointed out.
12:17They had 11 second-half comebacks last year, and they were one of the best teams in terms of defensive turnovers.
12:22Like, 29th yards allowed, 31st and pass rush win rate.
12:25They still have major question marks when it comes to rushing the passer with their edge rusher.
12:30They didn't draft anybody to really make a big impact.
12:33They're relying on guys coming back from injuries that got hurt last year.
12:36They're DeJingbo, Shamir Turner, two guys that they're hoping were going to have bigger impacts in 2026 than last season.
12:42So I think the defense still has some question marks.
12:45Their secondary is pretty good. And they lost Bayer, too.
12:47Bayer in that secondary would lead the league in interceptions like that.
12:51That's not an easy... It's not an easy thing to repeat.
12:54It's also not an easy thing to replace. You know, those kind of ball hawk kind of guys that are out there.
13:00Boggs, I want to get your take on Caleb Williams, too, because you'd like to see the completion percentage go up a little bit more.
13:07He's also got a different group here, you know, without DJ Moore.
13:10Now it's going to be Roma Dunzey. DJ Moore is gone.
13:13Luther Burden is still there. And of course, Colson Lovellon, who came on my gangbuster.
13:17He's the breakout guy for me. Ben Johnson said today, though, I caught this quote.
13:22He's, quote, buying Luther Burden stock right now. So that's good because he's coaching him.
13:26So hopefully... Is that insider trading? I don't know how that works.
13:29I was going to ask. Insider trading. It's a weird...
13:32Ben Johnson is kind of a weirdo. I guess someone put that out there.
13:36Like, he's a great football mind, but he's kind of a weirdo, which I did.
13:40There's a username on the prediction markets. B Johnson.
13:42That's buying all the Luther Burden. Like, breakout. Yeah, he's out there.
13:46All the yardage, drops, everything on... B Johnson OC.
13:48Who could that possibly be? I don't know who that is.
13:51Dude, I love Caleb Williams. Yeah, let's go! He came back and whooped Texas in that game at Oklahoma, right?
13:57And then he went to USC. How many times has he had the same OC two years in a row?
14:02It cannot be very often throughout his football life right now.
14:05So, just having Ben Johnson for another year, another year, like, the deeper he gets entrenched here, I think the better he's going to be.
14:12So, offensively, I really like this team. And they made some offensive line maneuvers as well.
14:17I will say this for the Bears, though. Worst strength of schedule in 2026.
14:21Hardest. 550 win percentage against. And everyone in this division is pretty bad, except the Lions.
14:25The Lions have the 27th easiest or the, you know, whatever, 27th hardest strength of schedule this year.
14:30So, if we're splitting hairs on this division a lot, it's going to go to the schedule, I think.
14:35And I'm probably going to like the Lions. The Bears, as far as the defensive stuff that we mentioned here, I think
14:42replacing the safeties that they lost, Brisker and Bayard with Bryant, who was part of the, you know, Seahawks Super Bowl winning
14:48team and Dylan Thienemann, I think is going to be great.
14:51What they didn't do is go out and get that extra impact edge, which they still can do if they want to get Josh Sweat somehow.
14:58I think they would have to really manipulate his contract to fit him under the cap because he's making $31 million this year.
15:04If they go out and do that, I would, I think they might put themselves over.
15:09But if the Packers get Josh Sweat, the Packers might put themselves over.
15:12Same thing with the Lions. I think all three of these teams are in competition for Josh Sweat right now because they need that extra pass rusher.
15:20But the Bears were expected to do it in the draft and they went with Thienemann.
15:24I think it's a great pick, but you need another edge rusher.
15:28I don't think Austin Booker is going to turn into Miles Garrett.
15:31All right. That's fair. What offensive piece are you most excited about, Fox?
15:35I'm just curious for you. Like, I'm a Loveland guy, you know, as opposed to the Luther Burden stock that I'm supposed to be buying.
15:42I feel like Loveland is actually the answer to the question of who's the most.
15:46It's Caleb for me. I mean, you know, just all these weapons for him.
15:50I'm really excited to see what Caleb does. How about year two, like, sophomore slumps you see sometimes too?
15:55With a coach or like a, you know, it's one of the things like that also worries me about Jacksonville.
16:00Like last year, you get that new coach. Everything's new.
16:03Everything's great. There's no expectations. And now, you know, now you have to play with expectations.
16:08How much do you think that enters into it, Erickson, when you look at the Bears too?
16:12Because this is a team that made it to playoffs, had that dramatic, you know, comeback win.
16:17Like all these things that they've done here, the Caleb Williams moments, like time and time again, and these like impossible situations
16:23where they've somehow come out on top. You're kind of alluding to the luck running out for them a little bit this year.
16:30Do you think it runs out to a point where they don't even finish second in this division?
16:35I think it's possible. I think you look at all these teams between the Vikings, the Bears, the Lions, who's the Packers?
16:41Like they're all going to be kind of in the mix, I think.
16:44And it depends on, you know, we have health with some of these question marks with some of these teams.
16:50But the Bears to me are one of these.
16:52We always looking at trends teams from year to year.
16:55I like the worst of first. Then I also look at going from being on the hunt to being hunted.
17:01The Bears won the division last year and it wasn't by much.
17:04You don't think the Lions and Vikings and Packers all know that the Bears won the division last year.
17:09They do. So given the fact that I still have major question marks about their defense, like we kind of alluded to,
17:15I think the offense is going to cook. And I think the defense being bad is just going to make the offense have to score more points.
17:23So I think for fantasy, that's why we like so many pieces of this Bears offense, specifically with Caleb Williams being the
17:29syrup that you pour on the pancakes, which are the pass catchers for the Chicago Bears.
17:33I think Loveland, I agree with you, Joe. I think that guy is going to be a free and stud.
17:39Like he was a stud coming out of Michigan and it just took him a couple of weeks to get going.
17:45They decided to finally put him out there. And then Caleb Williams was better in the second half when it wasn't only me.
17:51Zachias out there running all the routes and Cole Clement running all the routes.
17:55Go figure. He's better when Loveland is out there as the number one receiver on the team.
18:00Command. You knew it was going to happen eventually because of the draft capital they used to get Loveland.
18:05Like that was kind of eyeopening. And for every, I never think everybody stepped back and went, really?
18:10Like that's, that's how you're using the draft capital.
18:13And then as soon as you saw that, you had to know that by mid season, not Fitz, Fitz won a bunch of money.
18:19Yeah. All right. What are you making a schedule here for them too?
18:23You already mentioned that it's going to be more difficult.
18:26They also play on Thanksgiving and Christmas. Both of those games are in division, by the way, to Detroit and Green Bay.
18:32So that's kind of a tricky gauntlet to run towards the end.
18:35So if you do have some injuries, you have two very important games, guys, at the end of the year on holidays and short rest.
18:42That's a lot, I think, to take in. Schedule is bad for everybody except Detroit.
18:46So I mean, I think it's going to win the division.
18:49Honestly, it might be the thing that makes the difference.
18:52Let's talk about it. So to win the Super Bowl for the Bears plus 2,500, I don't think anybody really interested.
18:58You interested? No? Yes? No? Okay. Can I offer you a conference winner plus 1,300?
19:02NFC Bears going to Super Bowl? Anyone? Anyone? Not bad.
19:05No, no real takers. Division winner plus 325, eh?
19:07Huh? Nobody? No. Crickets. I don't like that. I don't hate that number.
19:11What's the miss the playoffs? That's the one I want to hear.
19:14Well, here we go. To make the playoffs, yes, plus 105.
19:17To miss it, no 115 minus 115 there. It's not enough.
19:20I don't think it's enough either. I think it's right, though.
19:23I think it's right, too, but that doesn't mean it's enough to bet on.
19:27So what do you think the win total is for the Bears?
19:31You want to invest your money the whole year to get a minus 115 payout?
19:35I don't. No. What would you set the win total for the Bears at?
19:39Nine and a half. Eight and a half. Nine and a half is the number.
19:43Plus 115 for the over. Minus 120 for the under, which means that no, minus 115 is better than taking the under.
19:49You give yourself more outs there to miss the playoffs than you do for the win total.
19:54A little bit better juice. Not a lot better juice.
19:56I'm taking the... But look, if you think everybody here is wrong, then to win the division plus turn 325 is the
20:03best bet you could possibly make on the Bears this year.
20:06I mean, not bad juice. I assume when we go into some of the other divisions, though, like, I don't know what the lines are.
20:13But I want... Before we get off the Bears.
20:15I don't want to get off the Bears either, because I got one more thought on them, too.
20:20Go ahead. Potential trade. Okay, I'm mentioning Josh Sweat.
20:23But... And then if we get Josh Sweat to the Bears, you got Montez Sweat and Josh Sweat, which is kind of cool.
20:29Like, you got that sweat combo off the edge.
20:31So I like that. Make them sweat. The Cardinals and the Bears.
20:35Tyson Badgen. Or Josh Sweat. Cardinals get a quarterback.
20:37That should have been done during the draft. If they were going to do it.
20:41I mean, the Cardinals don't do anything smart. I'm just saying.
20:44I want Bajan. That's true. It's not like the Cardinals have a plan.
20:48It's not like they're like, you know, we're going to do this so we can do it for the draft.
20:54By the way. I wanted that. The whole offseason didn't happen, obviously.
20:57Held out for stupid Aaron Rodgers for another year.
20:59So... But, yeah. Bajan is one of the best backups in the NFL.
21:03And I would be... I would be excited to see him get an opportunity.
21:07Like, I'm excited about Malik Willis. I was hedging on him last year because I was still 50-50 on Caleb Williams working out.
21:13There was a lot of things his rookie year that I did not like.
21:17A lot of things I was college- And you were right, Joe.
21:21He didn't throw for 4,000 yards. What a loser.
21:23No, not that. No, he was great last year.
21:26But I had a lot of concerns about... 27 touchdowns and seven picks.
21:29The bad Caleb Williams. 4,000 yards, Erickson. Bad Caleb Williams.
21:32Let's not pretend like the bad Caleb Williams early on was him trying every single time to run around the pocket 10
21:38yards deep, 15 yards deep, trying to find somebody.
21:41Eventually throwing the ball out of bounds. He couldn't find Loveland because Loveland was on the bench.
21:45He couldn't find Loveland. I understand that. But that kind of stuff sometimes is hard to coach out of a guy.
21:51And it's one of the things that still always worries me about Caleb Williams.
21:55It's like, okay, is that... Josh Allen does. He'll always have a little bit of gunslinger in him.
22:00Look, Josh Allen has a little bit of that as game two where he tries to do too much, tries to make
22:06a play out of every single play and ends up hurting himself.
22:09And that's something that you've seen a lot less of because he's one of the feeds.
22:14You can't rifle that because that's what makes him great too.
22:17You want to control it though, especially in a good division.
22:20And that's the name of the game. And I will say this about the Bears too.
22:24There's a lot of negativity I have about these other teams that the Bears could also default end up winning this division again too.
22:31I don't think that plus 325 is off the table.
22:34I don't. All right. You know what? Of all the bets for the Bears, that's the one I would take because it pays the best.
22:41More than three to one. I like it. All right.
22:44We're going to get to the next team here.
22:46Let's talk about the Lions here. So Dan Campbell, big advantage.
22:49They have the sixth easiest schedule here. As you guys pointed out, the opponent winning percentage is 467.
22:54Now, obviously injuries make a big deal here in a lot of these scenarios.
22:58And what looks good on paper doesn't always translate as well.
23:01This is the easiest schedule. This is the hardest schedule.
23:04We see it every single year. But certainly on paper, Erickson, it does look like the Lions have an easier path than they've had in a while.
23:11They've also had horrible luck with injuries the last couple of years.
23:15Maybe that's just the players they have on their roster too.
23:18Maybe it is something that they can't ever escape.
23:20Or maybe that injury regression comes back around. What are your thoughts on the schedule here for the Lions?
23:26And if they stay healthy, what that could look like?
23:28I think they're going to win the division. And I think that when you're looking at who's the number one most likely
23:34team to go from worst to first in a division, the Detroit Lions.
23:38And it feels kind of like a cop out that the Detroit Lions kind of qualify for this because they're a team
23:44that under Dan Campbell has usually won this division and been at the top and had been in the playoffs and locked
23:50up a home field advantage or a lot of those things.
23:53A lot of compliments by Dan Campbell. Last year, the offense, we kind of feel they took a step back.
23:59They didn't have Ben Johnson. So they went from the first scoring offense to the fourth scoring offense in the Lian.
24:05And I was like, oh, losers. Again, losers, just like Caleb Williams, the Lions offense sitting right next to him.
24:10So I think that all of those things you pointed out are just going to progress positively because I don't think that
24:16it's going to be three years in a row where the Lions defense is just gutted by injuries.
24:21Eventually, they're just going to get lucky and have better opportunities with the defensive players staying healthy and on the field.
24:27And I think that coming in last place last year, it's great for them because now they get to face such an easy schedule.
24:34I love the Lions. I'm buying them back here.
24:36And I think that Boggs laid out a good point that when push comes to shove, if it's really close between these
24:42three or four teams, well, who has the easiest path?
24:45And it's so clear the Detroit Lions from weeks five through 16, they play two outdoor games.
24:50One of them is in Miami in week nine.
24:52The other is a neutral game in Germany in week 10.
24:55Shout out to Amon Ross St. Brown homecoming. He's going to kill.
24:59It's going to get some Patriots that I don't love.
25:02There you go. Don't love that. But no, I think the Lions are, they smell blood.
25:06But I think they're going to win a lot of games this year.
25:10Replacing Ben Johnson was tough last year for the Lions.
25:12So that did not work out. And Dan Campbell to take over play calling again.
25:17And then now Drew Petsig takes over. So Boggs, you have any idea what this Petsig version of the offense with these weapons that they have?
25:24Look, it's a great group of weapons. You have Jameer Gibbs kind of flying solo now in this backfield.
25:29Don't want to hear anybody talk to me about Isaiah Pacheco.
25:32No, thank you. Tesla. I'm really excited about maybe him growing a little bit here in year two.
25:37So what do you think about the Petsig offense, what that might look like and how it could be different?
25:43Well, I mean, I don't know how different it can be, right?
25:46And I think Petsig is going to come in here and talk to Jared Goff.
25:50Jared Goff is a veteran and say, all right, I want to build the offense around the best players in this offense.
25:56We're building it around Gibbs. We're building around Amandre St.
25:59Brown. What is Jared Goff comfortable with? I think you build this offense out from your best players.
26:04And I think Petsig is smart enough to do that.
26:07So my concern with this team is on the defensive side, right?
26:10Like we've tried over and over to get an edge rusher next to Aiden Hutchinson.
26:14And if he gets hurt, we really have nothing.
26:17That is, that's an issue, right? We're weaker at linebacker because Alex Ancelone is gone.
26:21It's Derek Barnes. It's Malcolm Rodriguez, Rolder, who they drafted.
26:24And then the secondary, right? When is Brian Branch coming back?
26:27He tore his Achilles late. Kirby Joseph tore his ACL late.
26:30When are these guys coming back? They got some good veterans to replace them in Chuck Clark and Isian.
26:35So they did their due diligence to make this secondary a little bit better.
26:39My concerns about the Lions are on the defensive side, not the offensive side, even with the Where's their biggest weakness on the defensive side?
26:46I think right now it's still the secondary. And but if you sign a Lattimore or somebody else who's still out there,
26:52like some of these guys are still out there.
26:55I mean, I think you get six weeks out of them before you get on the guys.
26:59I think you just need to put more pressure on the quarterback.
27:03And so I think really, you know, and they went out and they got one of them.
27:07They drafted Derek Moore. They signed Peyton Turner. Right.
27:10So they're taking steps to put more pressure on the quarterback because that's what you do.
27:14You have to do when you have a nudges and you have to play from your strength.
27:19And I think they didn't do a lot of that last year.
27:22And I think they need to go back to that.
27:25So that's why we can let Maka. We can trade Montgomery and let Gibbs take over.
27:30This offense needs to run through him, needs to run through Amonra St.
27:33Brown and use everything else secondarily and put pressure on the quarterback to make that secondary better.
27:38And I think these are the steps that they've taken and they have the easiest schedule.
27:42So I'm going to be in on the Lions as well.
27:45That's why I wore my blue today for the Lions here.
27:48Shout out to my old roommate, Brandon Couch. Huge Lions fan.
27:52Lived with him during the 0 and 16 season.
27:54So we need to get him some light at the end of the tunnel, man.
27:58This is Martha Stewart from the Martha Stewart podcast.
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28:51Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what?
28:53We have some big news. What's the news, Nick?
28:56Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas.
28:58We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.
29:01We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.
29:04Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend.
29:07But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with the name Hey Jonas, guys?
29:12I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
29:17Well, we were thinking, originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.
29:22This is how you guys remember it going down?
29:25Yes. I have a very different memory of this.
29:27We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas.
29:33And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
29:39But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
29:45Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
29:47There you go. There you go. A little light at the end of the tunnel there.
29:52All right. Let's talk about the Lions and what some of the numbers say about them, what Vegas thinks about them.
29:58Best odds to win the Super Bowl. You get plus 1,800.
30:01How big of a run you think they can make here in the NFC?
30:05Anybody? Anybody? No? All right. Let's go to conference winner plus 900 to represent the NFC.
30:099 to 1. It's not bad. It's not terrible.
30:11It's not bad. It's not terrible. Let's go to the next one here.
30:15Division winner plus 180. So obviously Vegas is kind of a little bit.
30:19Only 180? Yeah, because they know. They know they're going to win.
30:22Yeah. Yeah, that sucks. That sucks. Sorry, Boggs. I thought we were going to at least double up, man.
30:27No, it's good. The Bears are plus 315. The juice for them to make the playoffs is minus 186 for yes.
30:33Yeah. Just give me the division. They think the Lions are in here, which again, if they think they're going to make
30:39the playoffs and it's that heavy of a minus, I think there's a strong consideration for that conference winner plus 900 being
30:45the best bet you can make on them. Do you want to talk about win total for them?
30:50Yeah. What do you think the number is? Nine and a half.
30:54They're all nine and a half. 10 and a half.
30:56You're on. So the Vegas is very bullish. I believe the numbers work out quite a bit on paper for the Lions about the schedule.
31:03So to not make the playoffs is plus 170 on the no side.
31:07For the 10 and a half, the over is minus 110.
31:10For the under, plus 110. And again, I think that Josh Jacobs news has had a lot of impact on this too.
31:16Yeah. Because they're taking out a big player potentially from that Packer team, which we're going to talk about next.
31:22I don't know where that, none of us know where that's going, but it's going to have a big impact because I
31:28have to imagine he misses at least a part of the season because of this.
31:32Even if everything is fine. Like if it turns out it's all, it's all nonsense and it didn't happen and they- He'll
31:38start an exemplist is what you're saying? Well, there'll still be a time where they have to put them on an exemplist before we know that.
31:45And I can't imagine that knowledge all coming out in a short period of time.
31:49It never does. Yeah. Before we move off the lines, I just want to give a shout to a player that I think is being really slept on.
31:57Wait, you didn't even give me an over and under yet for the Lions.
32:01I like the division. That's what I want. You want the division?
32:04Stay away from the under over. All right, go ahead.
32:07I want the division for the Lions. Drew Petsing, who was pretty good in his offense last year?
32:12Trey McBride? Sam Loporta. Pretty good. I think that- If he's healthy.
32:16He's kind of like a forgotten piece of this offense where- He's not forgotten.
32:19He's just oft injured. I think that's the difference.
32:22He got hurt last year and then he was fine the first two years of his career.
32:27He got hurt one time and now he's labeled as injury prone, I feel like.
32:31Got hurt twice last year. He got hurt twice in one year.
32:34Yeah, last year was a season that was lost for Sam Loporta.
32:37But the first two years, he was tight end one in fantasy as a rookie.
32:42And now you're looking at where he goes in fantasy drafts.
32:45He's like tight end eight. And again, I think that- No, I think he's got some upside there in the fantasy role.
32:51But what if Drew Petsing looks at him as, okay, well, this guy's going to be a big part of our offense,
32:57especially in the red zone, like I did with Trey McBride.
33:00I think that's- I think, you know, Amonra scores a lot of touchdowns.
33:04Yes. I think Pacheco can score touchdowns. And Tesla.
33:06We talked about that on Tesla. Don't get Joe started on Pacheco.
33:09Don't get Joe started on Pacheco. Well, because, I mean, Pacheco is not a thing.
33:14But if the one thing he can do is- Tesla could be, though.
33:17But if there's one thing Pacheco can do, it's run angry into the end zone.
33:21You know? Look, I just think- I think you guys are sleeping on Sam Loporta.
33:26That's all I'm saying. Okay. I don't think I'm sleeping on him.
33:29I just want him to be healthy going into the season because there's some questions about how healthy he's going to be in training camp this year.
33:36I'm going to be full healthy. That's the last I've read on the board.
33:40I expect a lot of things. I'm rarely ever delivered on the expectations of things.
33:44All right. Before we get to the Green Bay Packers and all their craziness here, you might want to take an advantage of our sponsor.
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34:50All right. Let's talk about the Packers. Because I think this show a couple days ago would have had a different tenor maybe about the Packers.
34:58I'd still be concerned about them. Not having Micah Parsons for a good stretch of 2026 I think is impactful considering they
35:04won several games without him last year. Not too good of a record.
35:07How many? I'm going to start with zero. Zero.
35:10Niero. None. None. None. So let's talk about the Packers because it also is problematic because when you deal so much for
35:16one player, then that player gets hurt. All of a sudden now your depth is really crushed because you have less draft picks in the draft, right?
35:24And it becomes this vicious cycle. I eat because I'm unhappy and I'm unhappy because I eat.
35:28The Packers right now are eating themselves alive a little bit off this Micah Parsons trade.
35:33So let's talk about the Parsons injury. They traded Rashawn Gary.
35:36That's okay. Okay. Everything's fine. No. It sucks. That was awesome.
35:39Look, they're thin. Very thin. That's my issue with Green Bay is they are very thin at most spots, right?
35:44Who's your backup quarterback? They're thinner than Poppins Morris on a juice fast.
35:48That's how thin they are right now. I mean, it's Lucas Van Ness and Micah Parsons and then Baron Sorrell.
35:54I love Baron. You hook him. That's my guy.
35:56Not a lot of NFL experience, right? Right. Who's on the other side?
36:00Brent Cox denied Dennis Sutton, who's doing the Ted Lasso, getting every reporter's name.
36:04I like that. Right. So, but they're thin, man.
36:06And the secondary was a big issue last year.
36:09Now, they have fixed that a little bit. They went out and got Cissé.
36:12I like him. But Zaire Franklin replacing Quay Walker.
36:15Quay Walker was a complete headache and a problem on the field.
36:18I understand that. But he's a much better player than Zaire Franklin was the last two seasons.
36:23He's great terribly. He's missed a lot of tackles.
36:25Zaire Franklin hits hard. But he misses a lot of tackles as well.
36:29I think the biggest issue with this team is the thinness on the roster, including the O-line, including the—really, it's both lines.
36:35So when you get Micah Parsons back, I think Micah Parsons is the key to this thing, right?
36:40Is really putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It's going to improve every aspect of this defense when Parsons comes back.
36:46But how long is he missing? Is he on the pup?
36:49Is he the first two weeks? Oh, he's on the pup.
36:52Eight weeks, right? Like, how long is Micah Parsons missing?
36:55He was on the jazzy last time I saw him.
36:57That's what I saw. You know, I want to pull the veil back here a little bit on the show because I
37:03know Boggs was a little self-conscious going into the show today because he's been sick for a few days and his voice—he's feeling better.
37:10But his voice is a little bit still shaky, but it's kind of husky.
37:14So when you say, like, it's hard, it sounds like a great— It's hard.
37:18It sounds like a great, like, old 1980s defensive coordinator.
37:21That's kind of working for me right now on the show, Bob.
37:24I sound like a smoker. Yeah, you're just like, this is—you're a guy that sets a bounty on the quarterback in 1985, you know, smoking cigarettes.
37:31Or in 2005, is my name Greg Williams? It could be Greg Williams.
37:35It very well might be. It's not just then on the defensive side, though.
37:39It's still on the offensive side, too. I mean, Christian Watson, God love him, never plays.
37:43I love Tucker Craft. And Erickson, you were the Tucker Craft truther last year, and you were 100% right about him.
37:49Unfortunately, the injury happened. But, you know, you were so right about how good he would be in that breakout season, and he was.
37:56So credit to you there. But the running back room is thin, too.
37:59Chris Brooks, Marshawn Lloyd, Pierre Strong. I mean, that—I mean, if Josh Jacobs doesn't play in 2026 here, you've really got to,
38:05like, go out there and get maybe not one but two guys potentially here.
38:09Because this is a—it's problematic how thin this roster is across.
38:12Najee should be signed yesterday. I mean, if they went out and traded for James Conner, how much different would you really feel about their run game?
38:20Because when you look at Josh Jacobs last year— I still wouldn't feel good about it.
38:24I'll be honest. I don't think James Conner can do what Josh Jacobs did last year.
38:29Last year, Josh Jacobs had 250 carries and didn't hit 1,000 yards.
38:32Like— He played Gimpy most of the year, too.
38:35But that's—but he's getting older. Like, I remember reading reports in this offseason that looked at Josh Jacobs before any of this stuff happened.
38:41Like, this was months ago that he was viewed as a potential cut candidate based on his contract.
38:46But based on the roster, it was like, now they've got to keep him around.
38:50He did enough last year. But weeks 1 through 10, he was fantasy RB5 points per game, 11 rushing touchdowns.
38:56Hurt his knee. Returned in week 13. RB23 in points per game.
38:5912 points per game from week 7 onward after hurting his calf.
39:03So he had multiple injuries last year. Calf injury and a knee injury.
39:06A lot of touchdown production. And were we expecting him to be, like, even better?
39:10In 2025 or 2026 with offensive line, you have Jordan Morgan coming over.
39:14He's going to be the starting tackle after paying guard to start his NFL career.
39:18Like, that is a massive projection. We're, like, hoping with players like Will Campbell, oh, we'll kick him inside.
39:23He'll be much better at guard. We're not moving a guard outside to tackle.
39:27It's like, right, well, this is your new starting spot.
39:30Like, now it's going to be, like, level up, baby.
39:33You got to be ready to rock and roll.
39:35So, I mean, I don't know how much Jacobs really was actually going to impact how many games this team was going to win.
39:42I think, if anything, it's the philosophy. I disagree a little bit with you, Joe, where you think that Jordan Love, like, needs the run game.
39:49Yes, I think that every quarterback will like to have him.
39:52I think that they should let him cook. Like, why can't we see what this guy looks like when we drop back 35, 40 times a game?
40:00Like, why not? Just give him a chance. Last year, he was second in EPA per drop back.
40:05And that was with a pretty, like, okay run game with Josh Jacobs leading the way.
40:09So, you get James Conner in there. Can he do 80% of what Jacobs did last year?
40:14You guys think that's possible? Maybe you'd lean a little bit more on Jordan Love?
40:18I think the offense can be okay. I need to solve the running back issue.
40:22And it's not just about this suspension. Because even if Josh Jacobs gets no suspension, we find out this is all made
40:28up and gets tossed out and everything. They need to have a backup.
40:32Marshawn Lloyd ain't going to cut it. Chris Brooks ain't going to cut it.
40:36I like Damian Martinez, who's on the roster right now.
40:39He also likes a pack of menthol lights, too.
40:41Do they trade back for Emmanuel Wilson? Can they get Emmanuel Wilson back on the roster?
40:46Well, you know what, Erickson? That was the first thing that popped in my head.
40:50I was like, man, I bet they wish they still had Emmanuel Wilson.
40:53I mean, he signed for Seattle for basically nothing.
40:56I know. It was so weird. I thought that was so odd.
40:59Which clearly shows you they didn't see this Josh Jacobs thing coming at all.
41:03Which also leads me to leave this probably... Well, they also don't like Emmanuel Wilson, clearly.
41:08Well, I mean... He was good last year. But that's Erickson's point.
41:11You know, they just don't have... They've got to shuffle things around cleverly here to fill...
41:15You're robbing Peter to pay Paul to cover up all the other problems they have.
41:19How do you not just sign Najee Harris, man?
41:22He's like... I know he's coming off a big injury, but he's better than anyone on the roster right now.
41:28He's desperate for a team. Just go get him.
41:30He's free. You don't cost you a pick. And if you're replacing Jacobs with a guy like Najee...
41:35Like, if Najee's explosive... Najee was never explosive, so it doesn't matter.
41:38Right. Like, you don't need him to be this, like, home run beater.
41:42You just need him to grind out the yardage.
41:44Yeah, you need a grinder. Run over some people.
41:47Yeah. Hey, Boggs, can you say I need a grinder in that voice?
41:51I need a grinder. Yeah, there it is. Meatball grinder?
41:53Is that your grinder of choice? Boggs, are you a meatball guy?
41:57I don't know. That's the only grinder I like.
41:59I have concerns about this offense and Jordan Love's ability to overcome all the problems of it.
42:04You know, I think Jordan Love is fine. I think on the surface they're good.
42:08He was second in EPA for drawback last year.
42:11That is really, really good. I think on the surface they're the best team in this division, but I think underneath the
42:17surface anything happens, just like we're seeing with Josh Jacobs, they're going to fall apart.
42:21They're going to fold up like origami, man. That's what it's going to be.
42:25And I just don't- And you can't afford to do that in this division.
42:29All right. What does the Vegas think? Super Bowl winner?
42:31I think we passed that. Conference winner? I think I'll pass that.
42:35Division winner plus 250. You like the pack to win this division, anybody?
42:38I'd rather take the Bears. I'd rather take the Bears too.
42:41Erickson? I'm just taking the Lions. Okay. You're already spoken for it.
42:45You're already going to the dance with Dan Campbell.
42:47He's very tall. Very tall. Make sure you wear your heels.
42:50To make the playoffs, yes, minus 145. Wow. No is plus 135.
42:54I gotta say, I think I like the no here, boys.
42:57Yeah. I don't hate it. Again, I don't want to put my money into these season-long bets unless I'm doubling up, but plus 135 is not bad.
43:04It's not bad. Look, over, under, what do you think the number is?
43:08Nine and a half. Eight and a half. Nine and a half.
43:11And then 10 and a half right now. You can get it minus 140 on and under.
43:16So it's a lot of juice if you go heavy on it.
43:19Every popular team just add a game. This team feels extremely boom or bust because think about it.
43:24It does. And somebody's got a bust here. Think about the discourse last year when they traded for Micah Parsons, who was
43:30the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl?
43:33It was the Green Bay Packers. So you see a path where in the second half of the year, Micah Parsons is now coming back.
43:40He's cooking. Let's say they stay a little bit healthier because I think Boggs really laid out the case where they're thin
43:46at the top, but there's a chance that, okay, well, if they don't suffer a ton of injuries, okay, now you can
43:52see the Packers actually making a Super Bowl run.
43:55So I think with them, it's either you want to fade them into oblivion.
43:59Like they don't get this fixed. The run game is terrible.
44:02Parsons never returns to form or you take the flip side of the coin and you take advantage of maybe Jordan Morgan's
44:08the best left tackle in the NFL. Jordan Love.
44:10They let him cook all the receivers. I got a question for you, Erickson.
44:14How likely is it of a scenario that you get a combined 10 games all season of Jacobs and Watson both on the field at the same time?
44:22Oh, zero. I'd say zero. How possible is it to get five games of Watson and Jacobs on the field at the same time next year?
44:29That's my point of the no. I guess like for me- Because I just feel like the chances of, I already think
44:35the chance of getting Jacobs isn't very good. I think that ship is sailing away very quickly.
44:40And then the other thing is, Christian Watson already built his own boat last couple of years.
44:45I mean, he's drowned me more than once in thinking that he could be something.
44:49I guess I just don't think that Jacobs' impact this season was going to be like, they need this guy so badly.
44:55I don't know. I feel like they can replace his production.
44:58I mean, I think Boggs made a good point.
45:01If they bring in Najee Harris, what can Najee do?
45:03They just can't replace what they have currently. Yes, but they're going to- That's my point.
45:08You think they're going to go into the off season like this?
45:11No. They're going to make a change. You're not going to go out like that, are you?
45:16I mean, realistically though- This is something you're saying to your teenage daughter.
45:19Do you think it's like- You're not leaving the house like that, are you?
45:23It's like week one is Marshawn Lloyd under center for- It's such a running back room, is it Green Bay?
45:29My God. Get back in this house right now.
45:31I would bet a lot of money that it's not Marshawn Lloyd opening up.
45:35Oh yeah, no, it's probably not. But that's what I mean.
45:38They're going to make a move. Like, it's going to happen.
45:41Yeah. And I think that- Where's Eddie Lacey? What's he doing right now?
45:45No, he actually- Eating China food. No, he recently had, I think he was talking on some show about how he overcame
45:51the eating thing, lost a lot of weight, and he's made a lot of really big strides.
45:56Good for him. RIP Fat Eddie Lacey. We're good.
45:58He's going to compete with Jordan Morgan for left tackle.
46:01Oh God. No shaming on this show. Boggs and I like to eat.
46:05All right. Oh yeah. Who am I shaming? You kidding me?
46:08I look like prime Eddie Lacey right now. Let's talk about the Minnesota Vikings here.
46:12A team where I had a lot of expectations.
46:14I was hot on the Vikings last year. I'll be honest with you.
46:18It did not end well. I thought somebody else beside the Lions was going to win this division last year.
46:24And I was, I was banking on the Vikings being that squad and JJ McCarthy being pretty good and Kevin O'Connell being a great coach.
46:30And that did not work out, did not work out at all.
46:34So I know we kind of talked about a little bit in the show.
46:38I don't see a scenario where Kyler Murray isn't the starter to start the year.
46:42We all agree on that. Yes. Kyler Murray's job to lose.
46:45So here's the question. Erickson, do we see Kyler Murray all year as a starter?
46:49Does he ever give up that job? Not because of injury.
46:52We all know injury. You give up the job here, at least temporarily.
46:56But is there any circumstance where performance leads towards any kind of quarterback controversy?
47:00Because isn't Wentz back too? I believe too. I saw he's back also.
47:03So you got, you got, and Wentz wasn't all that bad last year.
47:07Oh, come on. I mean, he looks bad. He wasn't, he wasn't, he wasn't the Jacoby percent impersonation.
47:12Listen, listen, listen, listen. It wasn't all that bad.
47:14I will give you this because we had to watch Max Brosmer play.
47:18Right? That's true. But Wentz was pretty bad. He was still not good.
47:22Kyler Murray at any point gives up that, because I think there's nothing I like more than when a coach is in
47:28a precarious situation and has to win really to kind of get back on track.
47:32And a player of note, a former first overall pick is at a crossroads in their career.
47:37I like to bet on those guys in those moments.
47:39And I don't think Kyler Murray's ready to give up his NFL career yet.
47:43He's a, he's right. Work for Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold to a certain extent too.
47:47Like, I like that kind of scenario here. And I think that Kyler Murray is going to surprise some people this year
47:53and I'm not the biggest Kyler Murray guy. So for me to be on this wagon is a little odd, but Erickson, what do you think?
48:01Does he ever gives up the job this year?
48:03I think that he would have to have some utter collapse in the second half of the season.
48:08Because the thing with Kyler, it's never been about starting out hot, right?
48:12He has always been in the beginning of the season, Kyler Murray's cooking.
48:15It's, this is why this guy was the first overall pick.
48:18And then things always seem to unravel. I've mentioned this a couple of times, but the 2024 Arizona Cardinals were winning the division.
48:25This stacked NFC West led by Kyler Murray. And then things just fell apart.
48:29And I'm not going to make the jokes about a certain video game and Kyler Murray coming out.
48:34I knew it. I knew it was coming. I was going to say, how close were you to saying, and then Call
48:40of Duty comes out and then he collapses for the rest of the season.
48:44That's not the reason why. You know what? I'd rather him be at home playing Call of Duty than out with some
48:50of these other guys driving cars in residential neighborhoods.
48:52When he goes to Georgia, he should be fine.
48:55That is true. Yeah. So I think that unless something were to happen in the second half of the season where he
49:01starts to play really, really poorly and O'Connell is, I can't scheme around this.
49:05He's not seeing the defenses or defenses are adjusting to what Kyler Murray has been doing.
49:09I think that's where you could run it to.
49:12Is McCarthy a potentially a better option to get us over the hump or to get us to win the division?
49:18So outside of that though, I think it's going to be Kyler Murray.
49:21And I think that he's going to play well, especially to open the year.
49:25And I think that again, we always, this always happens, right?
49:28With certain last year was Baker, right? MVP Baker.
49:31Honestly, if Kyler comes out cooking to Jefferson Jefferson, I think you're going to hear some Kyler Murray MVP in 2026.
49:37Could that happen? You can hear it, but I'm not going to listen.
49:40No, no, no. I would not listen either. But because we've been down this road before with Kyler in the beginning of season where he plays really well.
49:48But for the first month of the year, it would not surprise me.
49:51Because the size and the durability is a real issue because some, you know, 300 pound lineman falls on him and separates his shoulder.
49:58And the next thing you know, we're back in that same cycle.
50:01I will say this, Boggs. When Kyler Murray was at his best was with DeAndre Hopkins, an all world weapon, right?
50:07Where, you know, if you give him just a Jefferson, it is prime still.
50:11There's a lot of hope. Why couldn't he make it work with Marvin?
50:15Right? Because Marvin wasn't established. He was a rookie.
50:17I don't know if Marvin is that level. I don't think Marvin's a DeAndre Hopkins level of talent.
50:22He might not be, but he's better than what he showed with Kyler Murray.
50:26I also think that system was very odd. And the way that they chose to use Marvin Harris in that system at
50:32the time was also kind of odd. You mentioned, like, you know, do we see Kyler get benched because of performance?
50:38The only way in my mind that that happens is if he cannot get the ball to Jefferson.
50:43And I don't know how you can be a quarterback in the NFL and not get the ball to Jefferson.
50:49Just throw it in your head. I know. Just ask J.J.
50:52McCarthy. He can answer that question for you. Well, you're right about that.
50:55Uh, but I think that if I still have hope for J.J.
50:59McCarthy longterm, by the way, but I also think that Kyler Murray will make it work this year.
51:04And I think he'll be the quarterback the whole year.
51:06So I don't see any issues with that. And, you know, this team on defense blitzes more than any other team in the NFL.
51:13So they're kind of a wild card. Like they can win or lose.
51:17I feel like any single week when the blitz is working and they're harassing quarterbacks, they're getting turnovers.
51:22The offense is moving. It's a well-oiled machine. I mean, they work, but you break down any piece of it and the
51:28whole thing seems to come unraveled like it did last year.
51:31Yeah. Especially quarterback. Really good. For is a good DC.
51:34I think we all agree. And then I liked that.
51:36He kind of tailors, you know, the roster to the scheme.
51:40And so the other way around sometimes, because that's what good coaches do.
51:43You know, you keep going back to the offense though.
51:46You know, it's asking a little bit for Aaron Jones to stay healthy, but you do have Jordan Mason there too.
51:52I like Claiborne. I like Claiborne too. Speedy. Addison and Juwan Jennings.
51:55You know, TJ Hawkinson. Again, if, if. It's a lot of ifs, but like that's a, that's a lot.
52:00Kyler Murray is set up to succeed here. In my opinion, you got the right coach.
52:05You got a bunch of guys who know what the hell they're doing out there.
52:09A lot of talent on the field. Health is always the biggest thing for every NFL team.
52:14But I mean, Boggs, it just feels like if Kyler Murray fails, it's really on Kyler Murray.
52:18He gets banished to the shadow realm of like, you're a backup and you're, you know, you're, you're the next Russell Wilson
52:24that everybody keeps trying to take shots on and it keeps failing.
52:28Yeah. I think that would, that's exactly how he'd be seen, but he also could thrust himself into what Sam Darnold just did with a good season.
52:35Kevin O'Connell fixes quarterbacks. So he sure does. All right, here we go.
52:39Ready? Best odds to win the Superbowl plus 5,000.
52:41Anybody? Any takers? Any takers? Viking Superbowl. No. Okay.
52:44How about plus 2,500 to represent the NFC? Nope.
52:46Nope. Nobody. Okay. Division winner plus 550. If you think things.
52:49I don't hate it. Where's my worst to first Andrew Erickson now?
52:53They didn't come in last last year. They didn't?
52:55The Lions did. Oh, the Lions were last, weren't they?
52:58Yeah. How much? Was it a tiebreaker? Yeah. They're still last.
53:01They won nine games. They lost the division. Aren't they tied for last then?
53:05Technically? You got to come in last. You got to be dead last.
53:09Wait. So hold on. That's how it works. Did they or did they not have the same record last year?
53:14Is that what happened? I believe it was the same record, but they didn't have the tiebreaker.
53:19So they come in last. Or the Vikings came in second to last.
53:23I don't know. I like an amendment to your law.
53:25That's what I like to do. Let's go to make the playoffs.
53:29Yes. Plus 190. No, minus 200. So Vegas does not see them as a player.
53:33I don't mind plus 190. But like I said, I still want them.
53:36I'm investing for a full season. I want to double up.
53:39I'll tell you what. I'll find something else. I like them to make the playoffs more than I like the Packers to make the playoffs.
53:46I just see a lot of problems with that for the Packers.
53:50I just do. And Jordan Love has missed some time in the last two seasons too.
53:54And Bleak Lewis isn't there to back it up anymore.
53:57Just putting that out there too. I mean, if you're coming to quarterback.
54:01I mean, Kyler Murray's no like, oh, I'm going to stay healthy.
54:04They all are Terry or two. But at least they have nine.
54:07Well, the Packers got Terod. Terod Taylor. I saw something goes horribly wrong with him.
54:11Until he needs a rib injection. No one got Terod.
54:14What do you think the win total is for the Vikings?
54:17Eight and a half. Taking the over. That's correct.
54:20Eight and a half. Even money on the eight and a half.
54:23They hit the over last year. I like this even money on the eight and a half though.
54:28I would take the over. Yes. Both ways too.
54:31I just think last year they'd hit this. And they had the most amount of turmoil you could ask for a quarterback.
54:37So with more stability, I think that this one's probably one of the favorite ones we've talked about today.
54:42Boggs, what do you think about that over under eight and a half?
54:46Yeah, I think it's probably right. I would maybe slightly take the over, but I don't want to be involved.
54:51Yeah. By the way, the Vikings ended on a five game win streak last year.
54:55Is that true? Yeah, they played a lot of bad teams.
54:58And that's when McCarthy was playing a little bit better.
55:01I'm looking at this, looking at the, you know, the trajectory here, you know, just, just, just, you know.
55:06That's also where we got the meme. Yeah. Because the Lions did finish last, but they were both nine and eight.
55:12So I guess, I don't know. I like to look at, you know, some people see glass half full.
55:17Look, I don't think the division is bad, especially at five to one, like you said.
55:22No, the division is not. I think it's, I think it's a great division.
55:26Plus 550. I think it's very much. I think it's one that you might want to cash out of though, just to be safe.
55:32When you get there, like, for you to three to one.
55:36That is also very true. Kyler's. Right before. Yeah.
55:38Yeah. How many weeks for a Kyler Murray? Let's make eight, eight, nine weeks.
55:42Kyler Murray. Whenever they're by. I got to look at what they're by.
55:46You can win a Jamar Chase jersey when you subscribe and drop a comment.
55:49So go do that. Tell all your friends, like this video.
55:52And don't forget to ring the bell till it goes ding here on our new channel, Tailgate NFL, where we talk football all day, every day.
56:00Well, maybe not every day, but most days. And then in the season, probably every day.
56:04So there you go. So this is going to be a big thing in 2026.
56:08We want everybody out there to be a part of it.
56:11Thanks for joining us today. We got to get out of here and kick us out of the parking lot.
56:17We'll see you next time. This has been the tailgate.
56:20Welcome to the tailgate. The failsafe from stale takes.
56:22Erickson, D, bro. Joe, stay late. Tail of the game tape and trade grades.
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