NFL Pro Week 7 Preview

Brock Purdy is building an MVP case despite the 49ers having six wide receivers injured (Mike Evans—Achilles, Debo Samuel—hamstring, Dijon Stripling—ankle, Ricky Pearsall—PCL, Christian Kirk—calf, Demarcus Robinson—ankle). The source credits Purdy's decision-making, mobility, arm strength improvement (gained 10 mph from Iowa State to NFL), accuracy, and spatial awareness for maintaining the 49ers as arguably the most potent offense in the NFL.

CJ Stroud has been on a heater recently, and the source credits offensive coordinator Nick Kaylee's creative play-calling—including the mesh traffic play in Week 6—as a big reason for the Texans' offensive success.

Chase Brown's run game efficiency has declined this season; his rush success rate dropped from 42.8% (10th in NFL) last year to 39.5% (17th in NFL) this year, and his explosive run rate is 8.5% versus the 10.3% NFL average, indicating the Bengals' run game lacks the explosiveness needed to unlock their offense in the playoffs despite improved offensive line play.

Christian Kirk was not activated on Monday, which the source interprets as a positive sign for Mike Evans potentially playing in Week 7, suggesting Kirk remains behind Evans on the depth chart.

Christian McCaffrey versus Falcons linebackers in coverage is identified as a major area of exploitation for the 49ers offense in Week 7, particularly if the team leans into 21 personnel and downhill running schemes.

Second most yards in the NFL on downfield targets with 444 yards; has been heavily impactful for Green Bay whenever healthy, providing a constant vertical threat that defenses must respect on every snap.

Despite being a name that should produce in Seattle's receiving core, Kupp is getting nothing on third down against man coverage; teams are now realizing they can play man coverage across the board against Seattle because JSN is the only real threat, forcing everyone else into one-on-one situations where Kupp and other receivers are unable to generate production.

Dak Prescott has no awareness of Evan Williams' backside safety positioning in quarters coverage; Jonathan Gannon's aggressive defensive scheme in the red zone creates significant risk for the Cowboys quarterback, particularly given the Packers' 42% drive-ending turnover rate over the last three weeks.

Debo Samuel is dealing with a hamstring injury and is among six 49ers wide receivers currently sidelined, impacting the team's receiving depth.

Demarcus Robinson is dealing with an ankle injury and is among six 49ers wide receivers currently sidelined.

If Mike Evans is unavailable, the 49ers may lean more heavily into 21 personnel with George Kittle on the line of scrimmage and Kyle Juszczyk in the backfield, running a more downhill, north-to-south scheme against the Falcons.

Seattle's explosive rate on the ground is down this year, but Jadarian Price's individual explosive rate is high; if Price were still in these games and the overall explosive rate were higher, the cloud coverage rate defenses are playing might be lower because teams would be forced to respect the ground game similarly to how they played when Kenneth Walker was in Seattle.

One of the most productive players in the NFL this season; became one of only six receivers ever to have 1,800+ yards in a season last year; defenses are now facing him with increased cloud coverage looks (32.6% this year, number one in league, vs. 23rd last year) and higher man coverage rates on third down (fourth highest in NFL this year vs. 23rd last year), yet he remains the only consistent threat Seattle can rely on for success.

Against Kansas City's Mansoor Delane, who has a QBR allowed lower than 50 over the last two weeks despite being a rookie, JSN will face rare press man coverage; Delane's elite athletic and physical coverage skills allow the Chiefs to play JSN aggressively in man coverage on third down, where Seattle's third down yards per play against man coverage has collapsed to 3.2 (dead last in NFL) from 7.4 last year (highest in league).

Joe Burrow's offensive success depends heavily on the Bengals' run game efficiency; the source argues that the Cincinnati Bengals' season goes as their run game goes because that will unlock how potent the offense can be, especially in the playoffs, but expresses concern that the current run game may not be everything the team needs it to be.

Jonathan Taylor is a potential trade candidate from the Colts; the source identifies him as a top-six running back in the league and notes multiple teams (Packers, Bengals) would be interested in acquiring him for a playoff run; the Bengals are specifically highlighted as a potential trade destination if they beat the Ravens and their playoff probability exceeds 70%, with the source willing to offer a third rounder and potentially a second rounder with day-three compensation.

Playing at an elite level reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers; since week four, has 12 passes of 30+ air yards (four more than next closest player), 283 deep passing yards, 18 deep pass attempts (most in NFL), and seven deep completions (tied for second most, behind only Drake May); has eliminated the bad interceptions from earlier in his career while maintaining elite deep ball accuracy and threading-the-needle throws.

Josh Cuevas, a tight end, was creatively lined up as an off-ball guard by Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle in Week 6, running a crossing route that generated one of Tyler Huntley's two biggest explosive plays of the day against the Browns. This scheme creativity showcases Cuevas' versatility and potential usage in unconventional alignments.

Josh Downs could be traded by the Colts within a couple of weeks due to the team's receiver depth issues; the source suggests the Colts are open for business and Downs may be moved to a team like the 49ers who are out of receivers.

On pace for a top-three rushing yards per game season in NFL history at 133 yards per game, just 0.1 yards behind Jim Brown's 1963 all-time best season of 133.1; has forced 47 missed tackles on runs (nine more than the next closest player) and accumulated 275 rushing yards over expected (100 more than the next closest player) despite playing one fewer game than most running backs due to Kansas City's bye week.

Defenses are playing light boxes (70.3% of plays) and split safety looks (44.4% in 2025 vs. 38.1% in 2024) against Kansas City because they fear Eric Bieniemy's crossing routes (leading league at 88.2 yards per game, more than double the next closest team), creating a damned-if-you-do scenario where Walker destroys light boxes while the offense thrives on crossing routes.

Kyle Juszczyk may see increased usage in 21 personnel if Mike Evans is unavailable; the 49ers run 21 personnel at a league-high 34.6% rate with a 56.3% success rate, and may lean on this package with Juszczyk in the backfield against the Falcons.

Lamar Jackson is dealing with an ankle injury heading into the Ravens-Bengals matchup; the source notes it is difficult to envision a scenario where the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals without Jackson, and even if he plays, his health status and percentage of fitness are uncertain, making the Ravens' offensive explosiveness questionable.

Emergence has meant everything to the Packers offense; 501 receiving yards (sixth most in NFL), seventh most on downfield targets with 331 yards; used on diverse route concepts including deep crossers, sideline routes, and intermediate patterns; his talent and production are so high that the offense is winning while getting him the ball as much as possible, creating a situation where there's not enough volume for other receivers despite his proven ability.

Michael Penix has significant vulnerabilities against DB blitzes; he has faced DB blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL, posting a 53.1% completion percentage (24th in NFL), 5.9 yards per attempt (18th in NFL), and negative 0.52 EPA per play (31st out of 33 qualifying QBs); the source suggests the 49ers' defense, led by Raheem Morris, could exploit this weakness by bringing Malik Mustafa off the edge repeatedly, particularly given Penix's inconsistency and three prior knee injuries affecting his mobility.

Mike Evans' impact on 49ers offense is substantial: when on field, 7.2 yards per play, 19.3% explosive play rate, 55.7% success rate, +0.31 EPA per play; when off field, offense drops to 5.3 yards per play, 10.5% explosive rate, 45.4% success rate, negative EPA. Evans' status for Week 7 vs. Falcons is uncertain due to injury, but the source notes Christian Kirk was not activated Monday, suggesting Evans may play.

Mike Evans' presence on the 49ers offense is critical to their performance; when on the field, Evans generates 7.2 yards per play, 19.3% explosive play percentage, 55.7% success rate, and positive 0.31 EPA per play; when off the field, production drops to 5.3 yards per play (nearly 2 yards less), indicating his importance to the 49ers' offensive efficiency against the Falcons.

Despite being a name that should produce in Seattle's receiving core, Shaheed is getting nothing on third down against man coverage; teams are now realizing they can play man coverage across the board against Seattle because JSN is the only real threat, forcing everyone else into one-on-one situations where Shaheed and other receivers are unable to generate production.

Ricky Pearsall is dealing with a PCL injury and is among six 49ers wide receivers currently sidelined.

2026 season stats show significant decline: 77.4% passer rating, 6.9 yards per attempt, 40.5% success rate, and negative EPA per dropback, compared to last year's 83.2% passer rating, 7.2 yards per attempt, and 49.5% success rate; the root cause is the lack of Kenneth Walker in the running game, which has forced more responsibility onto Darnold's shoulders while defenses are no longer afraid of the Seahawks' ground attack.

Has had a quiet season, partly due to being banged up, but the primary reason is that Matthew Golden's emergence and high production has consumed so much of the offensive volume that there isn't enough opportunity for Kraft despite his talent; this is a positive problem for the Packers as they're winning while prioritizing Golden.

Tyler Huntley benefited from creative Ravens scheme in Week 6, with Josh Cuevas lined up as an off-ball guard generating one of his two biggest explosive plays of the day against the Browns through a crossing route.

Woody Marks was featured in a creative mesh traffic play by Texans offensive coordinator Nick Kaylee in Week 6, sneaking out through an A-gap while defenders focused on Jalen Knoll, gaining 19 yards on third and two to set up a game-winning field goal. This showcases Marks' role as a receiving back in high-leverage situations.