0:00What's going on, man? Welcome back to
0:03the basement. I'm Ron and week 10 is a
0:06war zone. We have Kenneth Walker status
0:08up in the air. We have injuries, by
0:11weeks. A lot is going on. And you might
0:14be desperate. You might be looking at
0:15the waiver wire and figuring out who
0:17you're going to throw into your flex
0:18spot. And that's what this video is for.
0:20Today, I am going to give you my seven
0:23sneaky starts and stats for week 10 of
0:25the fantasy football season. where I
0:27give you under the radar plays, guys
0:29that are off the beaten path. We're
0:30going to talk about the RB 33, the wide
0:34receiver 36, the tight end 14, guys who
0:37are potentially available on waiverss or
0:38on your bench that you can feel good
0:40about putting into your lineup this
0:41week. Or you can go out there and use
0:44these players in DFS, your bets, all of
0:47the above. Regardless, if you enjoy,
0:49leave a like, subscribe if you're new,
0:51and before we get to any of our sneaky
0:52starts and stats, let's do a little
0:55housekeeping. Of course, last week was
0:58week nine. We didn't do a sneaky starts
1:00and stats video because I was doing a
1:03Dynasty rankings update over on the
1:04Patreon. If you somehow have a crossover
1:06here of you're watching this video and
1:08you like Dynasty content, that's where
1:10you can find it. patreon.com/ronstewart.
1:13But week eight, we did all right. We
1:16called Michael Wilson. He was the
1:17consensus wide receiver 18. He finished
1:19as the wide receiver four. Justice Hill,
1:21we take that as a W all day long. RB45
1:24by consensus. finishes the RB31. He gave
1:26you like seven or eight points in your
1:27RB2 spot. Not a terrible day. Uh Gino
1:30Smith, QB13. We take that. Mai Lemon,
1:33wide receiver 31. Not terrible. And then
1:35we whiff on AJ Barner, Travis Hunter,
1:38and DK Mechaf was a big one. The wide
1:40receiver for 22 by consensus. Finishes
1:42as the wide receiver for 80. Brutal. Now
1:44we come back for I don't know. I It's
1:47not even like a comeback. Like that was
1:48a fine week. You got to remember we're
1:49dumpster diving here. The Mechaf one is
1:51the one that stings because that one's
1:52not really a dumpster dive. That one was
1:54just, hey, I like this player. But that
1:57actually brings us to our first sneaky
1:58start in stat,
2:01George Pickkins. He's very similar to DK
2:03Metaf where he's not that off the beaten
2:04path. But I want to give you the
2:06confidence to start George Pickins. He's
2:07been up and down. He's been dealing with
2:08injury. He's going to play. He famously
2:10told the reporter something the lines of
2:12like, tell your girlfriend or wife to
2:14turn on the TV and I'm going to be out
2:15there. Something like that. So, he's
2:17going to be playing and I promise we're
2:19going to dig much deeper than this, but
2:21I do just want to give you the
2:22confidence to play George Pickkins in
2:23what I think is an awesome matchup. Now,
2:25the format of this video, I show you the
2:28player. I show you how much I am above
2:30Consensus here. George Pickkins is my
2:31wide receiver 17 at home verse the
2:3449ers. I am, of course, two spots higher
2:37than Consensus. So, he's like the wide
2:38receiver 19. I like him as the wide
2:40receiver 17. And the stat is as follows.
2:43He has 2.55 yards per out run versus
2:47single high safety looks. Now, that is a
2:49stat courtesy of fantasypoints.com. They
2:53are amazing. Essentially, George
2:54Pickkins is really good when there's a
2:56safety in the middle of the field,
2:57whether that's cover three or I want to
2:59say that's also cover one. Regardless,
3:02when they aren't sitting back playing
3:05too high looks, that's when George
3:06Pickkins really thrives. His 2.55 yards
3:09per out run is a huge upgrade over his
3:111.7 yards per out run versus two high
3:14safety looks. He's had 17 catches, 227
3:17yards, and a touchdown versus single
3:19high looks. And the 49ers run single
3:21high safety looks at the sixth highest
3:22rate in the league. The 49ers defense
3:24has actually been pretty good this year.
3:26But the Cowboys are underdogs in the
3:30highest overunder of the slate. I want
3:31to say it's the highest overunder of the
3:32year 55 and a half. The next highest
3:35total is 50 and a half. So, we're
3:38talking a game environment expected to
3:39outscore every other game by five
3:42points. It should be fireworks. The
3:43Cowboys are underdogs, so they'll be
3:44chasing points in this one. I really
3:47like George Pickkins to bounce back.
3:49Now, when we get a little bit deeper
3:51here, I like the Mario Douglas, even
3:54with AJ Brown in the mix. He's my wide
3:56receiver 30. They're going to be at a
3:59neutral site at Bayern Munich Stadium
4:01here. Now, I do want to make it clear
4:05that yes, AJ Brown seems to be tracking
4:07the play, but in three games with AJ
4:10Brown, Deario Douglas has had 11.3
4:12points per game. Without him, 10.7. So,
4:14he actually scores better with AJ Brown.
4:16I think that's more fluky than anything
4:17else. But, uh, Deario Douglas doesn't
4:20really matter just because he's the slot
4:22wide receiver here. And he is my wide
4:24receiver 30 this week. Pretty much right
4:25on par with Consensus. But, I do really
4:28like Demario Douglas. and he is somebody
4:29that
4:31if he's on your bench, you wouldn't
4:33think he's the wide receiver for 30 this
4:35week, right? Like even if the consensus
4:36has it that way. I think that you
4:38definitely do need uh a little nudge to
4:40want to put him into your lineup. And
4:41this is what it is. He when we're
4:43talking about the Lions, they are
4:44allowing 14.6 points per game to slot
4:47wide receivers. That is the fourth most
4:48in the NFL. Douglas, of course, runs
4:5182.7% of his routes from the slot. So,
4:54it's a perfect situation here where the
4:57Lions allow the fourth most fantasy
4:58points to wide receivers when adjusting
5:00for opponent, but they allow the 14th
5:02most points to outside wide receivers
5:03versus the fourth most two slot wide
5:05receivers. So, they are uniquely
5:09weak to the slot position. On top of
5:11that, they run a lot of man coverage.
5:13The Lions run man coverage at the 11th
5:15highest rate in the NFL, 27.4% of the
5:17time, allowing 72 fantasy points per
5:19drop back, the fifth most. So, they run
5:21a lot of man coverage. They're not good
5:22at man coverage. And among 64 qualifying
5:25wide receivers, Demario Douglas's 2.66
5:27yards per out run versus man coverage is
5:29the 10th best in the NFL. The Patriots
5:32are underdogs. They're projected for the
5:3310th most points. So, they should be
5:35chasing points. You'll have Demario
5:37Douglas out of the slot against man
5:38coverage against a defense that is also
5:40prone to giving up points to the slot.
5:42And I think Demario Douglas is in a good
5:43spot to give you a nice quick 15 PPR
5:47points here. Then, we're going to talk
5:49about Jordan Tyson. I want to give you
5:50the nudge to start him this week. If
5:51you're in a spot where the wide receiver
5:5431 is someone that would slot into your
5:55lineup, which you know at this point in
5:57the year, wide receiver 31 is probably
5:58going into your lineup. Jordan Tyson,
6:00he's my wide receiver 31. He is at home
6:02versus the Panthers. And the stat is his
6:0585.6% success rate versus zone coverage.
6:08He led the entire draft class. That is a
6:10reception perception stat. Carolina, of
6:12course, runs zone at the third highest
6:14rate in the NFL. They allow the 12th
6:17most fantasy points per drop back in
6:19zone coverage. So, he's going to be
6:21seeing a lot of zone. This is his
6:22calling card. It is a leap of faith,
6:24though. He was at 35% of the routes last
6:26week. He saw four targets. So, when he's
6:28out there, he's getting targeted. I
6:30think this week he's going to ramp up to
6:31the 70% range. I think he's going to see
6:35five to eight targets here and he should
6:37be able to produce on that volume. The
6:40Panthers are a team that have given up
6:43the 19th most points to wide receivers
6:45with the second most fantasy points to
6:47running backs. So, they are definitely a
6:48run funnel, but the Saints are so bad
6:51when it comes to their run game. I think
6:53they're just going to have to pass the
6:54ball against the Panthers. And then I
6:56have some snaps and pace notes from Pat
6:58Thorman over at Established Run. He's
7:00awesome in terms of breaking down games
7:03by what can be a high pace shootout.
7:06Carolina's contest ranked first in
7:07combined snaps and fourth in total
7:09points after a typically voluminous 26
7:13to 21 loss to the Broncos with the
7:14second fastest neutral pace over
7:16expected and the third highest neutral
7:17pass rate plus a defense allowing the
7:19seventh most points per play. Carolina
7:20sets a reasonable floor from a fantasy
7:22environment angle. Now the Saints aren't
7:24quite uh the uptempo team they were a
7:26year ago, but they still rank fourth in
7:28neutral pace over expected and fourth in
7:30neutral play clock seconds despite a
7:32relatively subdued week nine. fifth
7:34highest overunder of the slate. So, two
7:37teams that want to play fast, two teams
7:39that are going to score points. I really
7:40like the environment. I think Jordan
7:42Tyson is set up in a good spot to
7:44exploit the Panthers zone coverage. Then
7:46we'll talk about Dylan Samson here. He
7:49is my RBY 33. He is at home verse the
7:52Texans. And the stat here is he has 121
7:55receiving yards in his last three games.
7:56That is fourth among all running backs.
7:58Last three games being since he's
8:00returned. Houston runs cover three at
8:01the fifth highest rate. 61 of those 121
8:04yards came versus cover three. So, we're
8:07going to be in a spot where Dylan Samson
8:08is going to be chasing points from
8:10behind. This is a team in the Browns
8:12that are 4.5 point underdogs, tied for
8:14the fifth biggest underdogs of the
8:15slate. And Houston allows 5.4 targets
8:18per game, two running backs, the 11th
8:19most in the NFL. We're going to get a
8:22trailing game script. We're going to get
8:23Samson checkdowns. The Texans defense
8:25also isn't that spooky. The Texans
8:27defense is 19th in EPA per play allowed.
8:29the uh allowing the 14th most fantasy
8:31points to running backs. So, they're
8:33going to be chasing points from behind
8:34against the Texans. The defense isn't as
8:36good as advertised and cover three has
8:38weirdly been a cheat code for Samson's
8:41receiving ceiling. I think he's a great
8:42bet to give you 10 to 15 PPR points in
8:45your RB2 spot if you're down bad. Uh
8:48then our fifth sneaky start, Malik
8:51Washington. My wide receiver 36 on the
8:54road versus the Colts. The stat is he
8:56has 2.91 yards per out run versus man
8:58coverage. That is seventh among 84
9:01qualifying wide receivers. The Colts run
9:03man coverage at the seventh highest rate
9:05in the NFL. They're allowing the 11th
9:07most fantasy points per drop back on man
9:09coverage plays. And then on top of that,
9:11it's just a pretty crazy split in terms
9:13of the man coverage yards per out run.
9:152.91 for Washington versus Caleb
9:17Douglas, who I love, is at just 1.26. No
9:20other wide receivers over 1.26. Malik
9:22Washington uh against all other
9:25coverages is at 1.71 yards per out run.
9:27So he gets a huge boost versus man
9:29whereas the rest of the team isn't all
9:31that great versus man coverage. Now of
9:33course we are dealing with Kyle McCord
9:35in this game against the Colts but going
9:38to be in the Colts dome. Both teams are
9:40pretty bad. Both defenses are pretty
9:42bad. This could be a weird game that
9:44ends up producing some fantasy points.
9:48The Colts here are also prone to giving
9:50up fantasy points to the slot. They
9:51allow just the 23rd most fantasy points
9:53to wide receivers, but they allow the
9:54seventh most to the slot specifically.
9:56Malik Washington runs 51.2% of his
9:59routes from the slot. So, man coverage
10:02slot similar to the Mario Douglas. We
10:03have Malik Washington here, but of
10:05course, his quarterback is Kyle McCord
10:07instead of Drake May. So, definitely
10:08tread lightly with Malik Washington just
10:10given the quarterback play. Now, going
10:13back to the well uh in the Jordan Tyson
10:15game. So, the Saints versus the
10:16Panthers, we have Darren Waller here on
10:19the road versus the Panthers. He is my
10:20tight end streamer of the week, my tight
10:23end 14, three spots higher than
10:25consensus.
10:26Things really line up well for Darren
10:28Waller to the point where if you needed
10:29to start him in your flex spot, like you
10:32already have, let's say, like a Trey
10:33McBride or something, and you're just
10:34down bad, I think you can flex Darren
10:37Waller here. Uh, I'm going back to the
10:39Well, he had 10 targets, eight catches,
10:4090 yards, and a touchdown last week
10:42versus the Broncos, but I think this
10:43week also sets up really nice for him.
10:46He has 2.92 yards per out run versus the
10:48Blitz. that is fourth among 49 qualified
10:51tight ends. The Saints blitz at the 11th
10:53highest rate, allowing the second most
10:55fantasy points per drop back when
10:57blitzing. Darren Waller has eight
10:59catches, 146 yards, and two touchdowns
11:01against the Blitz. On top of that, the
11:03Saints run a lot of single high safety
11:05looks. Darren Waller's 2.11 yards per
11:08run versus single high safety looks is
11:09the 10th best among 49 tight ends in the
11:11NFL where he has 12 catches, 173 yards,
11:14and three touchdowns versus single high
11:17safety looks. The Saints run single high
11:19looks at the second highest rate 64.4%
11:22of the time, allowing 0.53 fantasy
11:24points per drop back on those looks, the
11:26third most in the NFL. So, they run a
11:28lot of single high, they give up a lot
11:29of points on single high, they blitz a
11:31ton, they give up a lot of points on
11:33their blitzing, and these are two
11:35different looks a defense can have that
11:38Darren Waller has exploited in a really
11:40good way. Again, we talked about it
11:42earlier. This could be a sneaky shootout
11:44in a dome. Crazy divisional game. I do
11:46think Darren Waller, like I said, has
11:48some uh flex appeal this week. Then our
11:52last sneaky start here is our
11:54quarterback streamer of the week, Aaron
11:56Rogers. My QB 15. The stat here is he
11:58has nine touchdowns with two
11:59interceptions versus man coverage. He
12:01leads the league with those nine
12:03touchdowns. The Bengals run the third
12:04most man coverage in the NFL, running
12:07man coverage.
12:09I want to say, do I not have the number
12:11of how often they run man coverage?
12:14I don't think I do, but they run a ton
12:17of man coverage. The Bengals allow the
12:19eighth most fantasy points of opposing
12:21quarterbacks when adjusting for
12:22opponent. This is the fourth highest
12:23over under the slate at 49.5. The
12:25Steelers are underdogs on the road.
12:27They'll have to pass the ball from
12:28behind here. Uh and then like I said,
12:30Aaron Rogers has nine touchdowns to two
12:32interceptions against man coverage. He
12:34has three touchdowns to four
12:35interceptions versus man coverage. So,
12:37he is definitely someone who's going to
12:38score his fantasy points against man,
12:40which is what the Bengals are going to
12:41do. There's sneaky shootout potential
12:43here. But of course, there is the
12:44downside that it's a divisional game in
12:46the AFC North. This could be a 9 to3
12:49game, but Vegas has this as scoring more
12:51points than that. Aaron Rodgers here is
12:54available in pretty much like 65% of
12:56ESPN leagues. He's available in my home
12:58league right now. If you're down bad at
13:00quarterback, Aaron Rodgers could be the
13:02move. Now, before we get out of here, I
13:04did put some of my favorite plays into a
13:06pick them entry over on Underdog. Of
13:09course, if you're new to Underdog, use
13:10promo code Ron to get a 50% deposit
13:12match. get up to $1,000 in bonus funds
13:14on your first deposit. I have links in
13:16the description and the comment section
13:17below. These are always for fun.
13:21Follow responsibly. Just something fun
13:22to root on on a Sunday on top of your
13:25fantasy football teams. We're yet to hit
13:26one of these. So, literally uh follow at
13:29your own risk. We're dying to hit one of
13:30these. This one is a super this is a
13:33this is a uh bomb in terms of $50 to win
13:363,000 here. But we're going we're going
13:38for it all. George Pickins 60 plus
13:41receiving yards. Jordan Tyson four plus
13:43receptions. Dylan Samson 45 plus total
13:46yards. Malik Washington 36 plus
13:48receiving yards and a Darren Waller
13:51touchdown. We're going for it all. Tail
13:53at your own risk. I'll have links in the
13:55description comment section. All of that
13:57good stuff. But if not, good luck on
14:00Sunday. I'll be back here for the start
14:03sit stream on the Patreon. Uh and then
14:05on Monday, we'll be back for the 10
14:06lessons learned. As always, subscribe,
14:08leave a like. Thank you for watching and
14:09I'll see you all in the next one.
14:23Leave me stones like this. Ice cold
14:29ice.
