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FantasyPros Articles fantasy football takes on Baker Mayfield

Every source-backed article insight STACKED has extracted from FantasyPros Articles about Baker Mayfield.

79
Insights
31
Positive
10
Negative
Insight ledger

All FantasyPros Articles insights about Baker Mayfield

NegativeProjectionSep 16, 2026
Mayfield threw almost exclusively short in Week 1: 4.7 air yards per attempt (4th-fewest in the league this week), 2.0 air yards per completion (his 3rd-fewest career game), and completed all 12 of his behind-the-line-of-scrimmage throws—18-of-19 under 10 air yards for 134 yards, just 5-of-8 over 10 air yards for 82 yards. Given the pressure he faced (38.9% pressure rate), this reads as game-plan-driven rather than a talent ceiling. His rushing floor is real and secondary-scoring-relevant: 5 carries, 30 yards, and a 9-yard broken-pocket scrambling touchdown.
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PositiveMatchupSep 16, 2026
Baker Mayfield is in a bounce-back spot against the Browns in Week 2 after an awful road game in Cincinnati with three fumble losses. Despite the poor Week 1 performance, Mayfield completed 82.1% of his passes and threw 10 first downs, ranking 10th among quarterbacks in first-down attempts. Trevor Lawrence finished as QB5 against Cleveland last week, suggesting the Browns' secondary is vulnerable. The source recommends firing up Mayfield in Week 2, framing this as a revenge game narrative where he's looking to prove doubters wrong.
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PositiveProjectionSep 12, 2026
Baker Mayfield is expected to bounce back in 2026 after finishing as QB17 in fantasy points per game in 2025 following a QB4 season in 2024. Despite injuries to his arm, shoulder, and MCL/PCL in 2025 that contributed to 24th-ranked yards per attempt and 35th-ranked adjusted completion rate among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, the source expects a strong Week 1 performance in a contract year. Cincinnati's completely overhauled defense (adding Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Cashius Howell, Kyle Dugger, Bryan Cook) means prior-year defensive statistics are unreliable; Mayfield will be forced to throw frequently to keep pace with Cincinnati's high-powered offense.
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PositiveMatchupSep 10, 2026
Baker Mayfield faces a fantasy-friendly Cincinnati Bengals defense in Week 1 after signing a massive contract extension with Tampa Bay. The Bengals surrendered 19.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (eighth-most in NFL) and allowed 24.6+ points in nearly a quarter of their matchups last season. Mayfield finished as QB12 last season despite playing most of it hurt, averaging 1.5 passing touchdowns and 16 fantasy points per game. The source expects Mayfield could start the season with a top-five quarterback finish.
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PositiveProjectionSep 9, 2026
Mayfield fell to QB17 in fantasy points per game in 2025 after a QB4 campaign in 2024, dealing with receiver injuries, offensive line issues, and personal injuries (bruised throwing arm, sprained MCL/PCL, bicep tendon strain, left shoulder issues). He was 24th in yards per attempt and 35th in adjusted completion rate among 38 qualifying QBs. In a contract year, the source expects a big bounce-back season if he stays healthy. Cincinnati's defense was completely overhauled this offseason with additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Cashius Howell, Kyle Dugger, and Bryan Cook, but Mayfield should have a strong Week 1 performance and will be forced to chuck it to keep up with the Bengals' high-powered offense.
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PositiveProjectionSep 8, 2026
Mayfield had a tough 2025 as QB17 in fantasy points per game after a wondrous QB4 campaign in 2024, dealing with injuries to his receiver room, offensive line, and himself (bruised throwing arm, sprained MCL/PCL, bicep tendon strain, left shoulder issues). Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 24th in yards per attempt, 35th in adjusted completion rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 11th-worst in turnover-worthy throw rate. In a contract year, the source expects a big bounce-back season if he can stay healthy. Mayfield should have a strong Week 1 performance, though the Bengals completely overhauled their defense this offseason with additions of Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Cashius Howell, Kyle Dugger, and Bryan Cook. Mayfield will be forced to chuck it to keep up with Cincinnati's high-powered offense.
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PositiveValueAug 26, 2026
Mayfield cratered from a QB4 breakout in 2024 to the QB17 in 2025, but the collapse came with a clear, fixable cause: a battered throwing arm, a sprained knee, a bicep strain, and a shredded receiver room. Health is the whole story. Assuming a cleaner 2026, he still has a deep cupboard of pass-catchers and a rushing contribution that has topped 378 yards in each of the last two seasons to prop up his floor. He profiles as a top-12 quarterback you can draft as a mid-range QB2, which is exactly the shape of a buy-low.
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NegativeDepth ChartAug 16, 2026
The source predicts 2026 will be the last season Mayfield enters as a starter. The case against him is that despite a strong prior season, he has had real down stretches, is now over 30, and has been let go by teams as a starter before. This comes against the backdrop of an unusually deep incoming quarterback draft class expected to push several new options into the league next year, creating real competition for every shaky starting job around the league. The co-hosts express more hesitation about him since he could still land a bridge-starter role elsewhere even if unseated by his current team.
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NegativeBustAug 15, 2026
Mayfield is a bust candidate due to offensive coordinator instability and personnel losses. He's on his fourth coordinator in four seasons after Josh Grizzard's tenure resulted in the Buccaneers ranking 18th in scoring and 21st in total yards in 2025, with Mayfield failing to throw for 4,000 yards for the first time as a Buccaneer. New coordinator Zac Robinson had middling results in Atlanta (24th in scoring) before being let go. Mayfield lost Mike Evans to San Francisco, his top receiver who thrived under previous coordinators Canales and Coen. Remaining receivers Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin present concerns: Egbuka slowed after defenses adjusted, and Godwin, now 30, is recovering from a significant 2024 leg injury with the team being cautious with his workload. Additionally, Mayfield faces a contract dispute with Tampa Bay, creating potential distraction if the team struggles early. Moore advises avoiding the situation entirely.
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PositiveSleeperAug 14, 2026
Mayfield is a sleeper quarterback expected to bounce back in 2026 after a difficult 2025 season as QB17 in fantasy points per game, down from QB4 in 2024. He dealt with injuries to his receiver room, offensive line, and himself in 2025, including a bruised throwing arm, sprained MCL/PCL, bicep tendon strain, and left shoulder issues. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 24th in yards per attempt, 35th in adjusted completion rate, 22nd in catchable target rate, and 11th-worst in turnover-worthy throw rate. Assuming better health in 2026, Mayfield should bounce back. He still has a deep cupboard of skilled receivers despite Mike Evans's departure, and his rushing production (at least 378 rushing yards each of the last two seasons) provides a nice bump to his fantasy ceiling and floor. Mayfield could easily be a top 12 fantasy quarterback in 2026 that you're drafting as a mid-range QB2.
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NegativeBustAug 7, 2026
Mayfield is being avoided by Pat Fitzmaurice based on current ADP. This is a crossroads year after a dramatic decline: QB3 in FPPG in 2024 to QB19 in 2025. His completion percentage fell from 71.4% (2024) to 63.2% (2025), and yards per attempt dropped from 7.9 to 6.8. Injuries to WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (each missed ~half the season), WR Emeka Egbuka (hamstring), offensive line issues, and Mayfield's own shoulder injury contributed. More concerning: Mayfield is now on his fourth playcaller in four seasons (Dave Canales in 2023, Liam Coen in 2024, Josh Grizzard in 2025, Zac Robinson in 2026). While a bounce-back is possible, the source cautions against assuming a return to 2023–2024 form.
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PositiveProjectionAug 2, 2026
In a healthier 2024 season, Mayfield was tied for QB3 in total points (381.8) and tied for QB3 in points per game (22.5) among those with at least eight games played. Among 39 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks in regular season and postseason in 2024, Mayfield ranked fourth in passing yards per game (260.3), fifth in yards per pass attempt (7.97), seventh in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.27), tied for fourth in adjusted completion percentage (80%), and tied for second in passing touchdowns (43). He was also 12th in rushing yards per game (22.3) and tied for 12th in rushing touchdowns (three) among 41 quarterbacks with at least eight games played.
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NegativeBustAug 1, 2026
Mayfield was banged up for much of last season, and so was his supporting cast, which helps explain why he went from QB3 in fantasy points per game in 2024 to QB19 last season. Improved health in 2026 might not lead to a full rebound. His completion percentage fell from 71.4% in 2024 to 63.2% in 2025, and he went from 7.9 yards per pass attempt in 2024 to 6.8 in 2025. While Mayfield has averaged better than 20 rushing yards per game over the last two seasons, before 2024 he had never averaged more than 10.3 rushing yards per game in any season. Mike Evans is no longer with the Buccaneers, having signed with the 49ers. Mayfield will be working with his fourth playcaller in as many seasons, new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. QB cost-cutters might want to consider options other than the 31-year-old Mayfield.
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