0:00Good morning, friends and enemies. In today's video, we will be doing the reverse of last week's video, which now that I've wrapped up my initial rankings
0:08for 2026 fantasy football, look at the guys that I'm a lot higher on the consensus. We looked at the market ADP
0:13and guys I just have ranked a lot higher than where they're going in drafts. Now, we will be doing the flip it and reverse
0:18it of guys that I'm much lower on than where they're currently going in drafts.
0:22It's a handful of guys, a lot of running backs on this list. So, without further ado, let us get to the first player. And
0:27this one hurts a little bit because if you followed me at all last year, if you followed my videos throughout the
0:31summer, you very, very likely ended up with a lot of Devon Achane on your team.
0:35This year, we will likely end up with very, very little Devon Achane cuz he's the first player up on this list. Right
0:40now, he's going off the board as the RB7. He's like a first-round pick in fantasy drafts and that kind of blew my
0:46mind when I first saw the ADP because it feels like a year late from where you wanted to get him. Last year, he was,
0:53you know, going in the end of the second round, early third, and it felt like he could return a first-round investment
0:59for you. This year, it's like the reverse where if you end up investing a first-round pick on him, he probably feels like he's going to give you back
1:06mid-late second, early third-round value based almost entirely on the situation that Miami finds themselves in right now. He's so good and I think he's
1:15completely underrated as an inside-the-tackles runner. However, when it comes to guys his size, when it comes to like very unique players in the NFL,
1:23there are like a very particular few set of coaches that know how to get out the goodness of those unique players, right?
1:31You have Kyle Shanahan with Deebo Samuel. I don't think Deebo Samuel would have had the career he had had it not
1:37been for playing Kyle Shanahan's system and him being able to utilize him the correct way. I think I'm looking at it
1:41the same way with Devon Achane in a Mike McDaniel offense. When I look at their off-season moves, you know how people
1:47say like this is addition by subtraction, I think this is like subtraction by addition when it comes to Miami. They get rid of Mike McDaniel.
1:56Their new head coach, Jeff Hafley, was the Green Bay defensive coordinator. So, I got no problem with But, they bring in
2:01Bobby Slowik to be their offensive coordinator. Hate that. If we remember his time in Houston, like did not like the run game there. Just shoving guys up
2:08the middle on first and second down.
2:10Their receiver room is just They got a nothingburger going on there. No more Tyreek Hill, no more Jaylen Waddle. They have a bunch of young, like later-round
2:18rookies that they're going to end up relying on here. They bring in Malik Willis. So, will be a very run-heavy offense that will have like so little
2:25success. Their win total is set at four and a half. They've made some improvements on the offensive line and some investments, obviously, their
2:32first-round pick. But, they're still slated to be a bottom-five offensive line heading into the season. And I just don't want to attach myself to this type
2:40of offense. I just don't want to look up on Sundays and be like, "Fuck, Miami doesn't have the ball again. Miami
2:45doesn't have the ball again. Miami doesn't have the ball again." When they do, how long is it for? Do they use
2:50Achane on the goal line? Like, that That's one of my biggest issues here is like, when Achane is in that situation
2:55where they could get easy touchdowns, which is going to be few and far between in this Miami offense, which again, four
3:00and a half wins. Uh do they sub Ali Gordon in there? I I could see a year where Devon Achane finishes with like
3:06five or six touchdowns. Is he still going to catch like 50, 60 passes?
3:10Probably. But, I also think that's another part of this equation here where Malik Willis as a mobile quarterback is going to check down way less times than
3:17a Tua Tagovailoa would, right? Like, Tua was a a check-down and a dump-off artist the last couple of years. That was Mike
3:23McDaniel's offense. They like ran the passing game through Achane. And they gave him the extension. I'm sure he's still going to be a big part of this
3:28offense. But, I think we're going to see his touchdown numbers plummet. I think we're going to see the number of overall
3:32targets cuz Malik Willis will take off and run a lot of those times. I just don't think there is anywhere near the
3:37upside that he had last year. And now you're paying the upside price for what feels like a year late on Achane. So,
3:44love the player still. Cannot be more off this first-round ADP, though. Number two, we are sticking within the AFC East here. And, you know, I had an incredibly
3:54scorching hot thesis last summer. Every video I feel like I talked about it where I was just like, "I'm not touching
4:00any New York Jets player." People were like, "Justin Fields is a top six quarterback in fantasy." Felt like that was abysmal. People loved Breece Hall.
4:08People loved Garrett Wilson. I was like, "Listen, I'm I'm just Do whatever you want. I'm just not touching a New York
4:14Jets offensive player because I've just watched them so often." This is one I didn't have to overthink. They had Aaron Glennon coming in. They didn't have a
4:20quarterback. They don't have a lot of upside on that offense. It just felt like a disaster of a situation. And yet
4:26people still drafted Breece Hall in the third round. And they're doing it again this year. Now, I don't necessarily have a problem with Breece Hall as like a
4:33fantasy player this year. This is way more based on the price right now. His ADP is 30th overall. So you're talking
4:38about early to mid third round pick. The RB14 off the board, which is like borderline an RB1 for your team. I
4:44currently have him ranked 41st overall as my RB18. I think the obvious upgrades to the Jets are they get Geno Smith at
4:53quarterback. Now Geno played horrendously last year in Las Vegas. I would say a lot of that has to do with the offensive line though, just being
4:59under pressure. I think he's probably somewhere in the middle of what we saw last year and what we saw in his Seattle
5:03days. So I think he'll be fine. I think he'll give them a little bit more of a floor than any of the Jets quarterbacks
5:07gave them last year. And they do bring in some more weapons, right? Kenyon Drake, Omar Cooper, all those kind of guys. So hopefully the offense moves a
5:13little bit more smoothly. I just don't see the situation being that different from last year for Breece Hall in particular. Like a lot of the reasons I
5:20didn't want to invest heavily into Breece Hall was I didn't think the offense was going to score a lot of touchdowns. Their win total is very low
5:26again this year. Breece Hall's rushing touchdown line this year is again five and a half. I think it was four and a
5:31half or five and a half last year as well. It's just not a team that's projected to score a lot of points. And
5:35I think people forget as well going into last year we were worried about a little bit of a committee there with Braelon
5:41Allen taking short down and goal line work. And we were worried about Isaiah Davis, you know, kind of siphoning in some pass-catching work and playing on
5:48like third down in very, very obvious passing down situations. And then we literally saw that play out until Breece Hall Allen got hurt. And Breece Hall
5:55Allen's going to be healthy this year going in. So, the way I'm looking at it is like, of course Breece is the
5:59workhorse. Of course they're going to try to get him that bellcow status. They gave him the extension. I think a lot of
6:03the offense is going to run through him.
6:05However, I I don't think the third-round ADP is warranted given we we pretty much saw this same situation play out last
6:12year for this offense where it was like Breece getting a lot of touches, but getting a decent amount of empty touches. When they're down on the goal
6:19line, which won't be that often, they gave a lot of that work to Breece Hall Allen, and I think that's going to be
6:22the case going into this year as well.
6:24So, for me, when it comes to Breece, when it comes to the Jets offense, when it comes to Aaron Glenn still being
6:29there, I know they brought in Shane Steichen, but that's not something I'm overly optimistic about here. I'm I'm not going to be taking Breece Hall in
6:35the third round this year. I I can just tell you that. If he starts to float more towards where my ranking of him is,
6:40which is 11 spots lower than ADP, I'm at 41 and he's at 30 overall, I get it. I'm I'm fine taking him because I do think
6:46at the end of the day he'll probably average 18 touches a game. He's a very, very good pass-catching back. But I just
6:50get concerned with the overall offensive structure here. I get concerned with the touchdown upside for a guy like him.
6:56Moving on to player number three, we've got Kyren Williams of the Rams. Now, his ADP is one spot below Breece Hall, 31st
7:03overall, RB 15. And ironically, I have him one spot below Breece Hall in my rankings, 42nd overall, RB 19. So, the
7:11thing with Kyren Williams, he's an incredibly high-floor player. I still believe like I don't think you're going to regret having him on your team. I
7:17just think this price that you're paying for him is a little bit risky given like the very obvious material change that we
7:24saw in the Rams offense last year. And it was Kyren and Blake Corum straight up were just splitting drives. It was Kyren
7:32for a full drive, Blake Corum for a full drive, Kyren for a full drive, Blake Corum for a full drive. And yes, when it
7:39came down to crunch time or if it was moments where like Shawn McVay really needed to trust a running back, it's
7:45going to be Kyren Williams. He did get the extension. I still think he's that guy, but I'm not looking to spend the
7:50305 on a dude who's going to be off the field on every other drive. And we saw that very, very clearly. It it's not
7:56very different than what we saw in Chicago last year, where it's De'Andre Swift and then Cam Akers. De'Andre Swift and Cam Akers. And it doesn't mean none
8:04of these guys can be good fantasy players. Like again, I think Kyren Williams still probably has a floor of 1,100 total yards, will flirt with eight
8:11to 10 touchdowns, which is good, but that doesn't present you the upside that you're looking for in the third round of
8:16drafts. Like you're drafting a guy like Kyren Williams ahead of Devonta Smith, ahead of like Josh Jacobs this year, depending on how the legal situation
8:23plays out. I'm not trying to wrap my head around a dude who we just saw how the season played out. And again,
8:28high-floor offense, high-floor player, but when we look at what changed, carries per game, 2023 for Kyren, 19.
8:362024, 19.8. Last year, that dipped down to 15.2. And he's a he's a running back that does not catch a lot of passes.
8:43He's averaged two catches per game over the course of his career. So we saw a dip in rushing, which came as the
8:48obvious, you know, answer to Blake Corum getting a lot more carries here. I think they're they're pretty similar players.
8:54I think you have to give the advantage to Kyren Williams just because of what he's proven at the NFL level at this
8:58point. But in terms of of like talent level, I don't think Kyren Williams is like a needle mover relative to Blake
9:04Corum. I think he's a good player. I think he can do it all when asked to.
9:08When they get down to the goal line, they love to use the tight ends. They love to use Davante Adams. They love to
9:12use Puka Nacua. And if it's a drive where Blake Corum just happened to be in, he's going to be the one that takes
9:16the touchdown there. I think that's going to be extremely frustrating. So again, not that I'm like a full fade on Kyren Williams, but if you're telling me
9:22Kyren Williams goes at 30 overall and De'Andre Swift goes at 55 overall, to me they have extremely similar outlooks about what you're going to get on
9:30Sundays. Moving down the list, running back four, another AFC East running back, and that is second year Patriot back, Zamir Henderson. Currently a
9:40top-50 pick, 49th overall. So, you're talking about the 4-5 turn, running back 21, which is pretty much exactly where he got drafted last year. I have him
9:47down at 67 overall, running back 26. I feel like I'm right on the dot here. I feel like this is exactly where people
9:53should be drafting him. After watching what we saw last year, I don't understand how people have this huge bull upside case for him. Given last
10:03year, one of the reasons that I was a little bit hesitant, cuz by the end of the summer, he was like a third-round
10:07pick. He was at the 3-4 turn, and I get it. He's got a lot of upside. He was an explosive player. We thought he was just
10:12going to blow past Zamir Henderson, but one of the cases I kept making was that Josh McDaniels, their OC, had always
10:18historically used a running back by committee. Had always It's like a 20-year example window that we basically have for this. And anytime
10:25he didn't use it, which was a very, very small sample size of just a few years of the years that he was either head coach
10:30or an OC, it had been because he had a back that was like 225-plus pounds.
10:35Shonn Moreno's of the world. Where Zamir Henderson is not that guy. And then we saw that play out. It was completely
10:41an RBBC there with Zamir and Zamir Henderson. And Zamir had these very, very high-upside games because Zamir was out. If we're being realistic here,
10:49there are a ton of running backs that can have massive fantasy days when given a bellcow role. That like encapsulates the entire argument of the positional
10:57value of running back. Like when Josh Jacobs is out, Zamir Wilson has massive upside days. That's kind of everywhere around the league. If you give any of
11:04these like top-tier running backs 20-plus touches in a game, they're probably going to have really good games. That's not the question that you
11:11need to be asking yourself as a as a fantasy owner or as a fantasy drafter, it's whether or not they will. Will they
11:16get those touches? And in this offense, no. So, with Zamir, he struggled a lot in the pass-blocking role. Zamir is much, much bigger and much better at
11:24that. As a down-to-down runner, I don't think anyone can argue that Zamir was not better than Zamir Henderson. Does he add a level of explosiveness to this
11:30offense that's different than Zamir? Of course. But that's the thing. Like, that's what this tandem is going to bring to you. So, it's hard to see a
11:37huge upside case with Trayveon. Is he really going to get 10-plus carries per game this year? Is he going to get
11:4112-plus carries per game this year? And if not, what kind of upside do we really see for this guy? On top of that, you
11:47add in some real like target earners in A.J. Brown, of course, and Romeo Doubs this year. So, I think targets are going
11:52to be a little bit more spread out through the offense. And I also think when you look at the schedule, last year
11:56they obviously had the fourth-place schedule, and now going to the Super Bowl, they have a much tougher schedule.
12:00When you look at the overall strength of schedule, the middle of it's kind of nice, but the ends of it, the sandwiches
12:05of it, in the fantasy playoffs, great to have the New York Jets there in week 16, but the Chiefs are tough in week 15. The
12:10Denver is obviously extremely tough in week 17. So, just looking ahead, the playoff schedule is not super favorable for these running backs in either
12:16direction. So, Trayveon Henderson, not for me at his current price tag. He will not be an end of the fourth, early fifth
12:21round pick for myself. And even at that, like sixth or seventh round feels It feels right. It feels less risky, which
12:28is what you need to be doing when you're drafting a guy that feels risky. Like, we don't even know if Trayveon Henderson
12:33is that good of an NFL running back. He was great in college. He's very explosive. He had some cool plays. He
12:39had some cool games, but there are a lot of running backs in the NFL that can do that on small sample sizes. So, I think
12:44the biggest picture is we just have this massive sample size of Josh McDaniels using a committee, and he just did that
12:50again. And Rhamondre was legitimately good for them in that committee. Moving to the next player, and I don't think we could have a list here on this channel
12:58that was talking about guys that I do not want you to draft, that I will not be drafting, that I would not even wish
13:04upon my worst enemy to draft, and that is Kyle Pitts, the tight end of my Atlanta Falcons. Currently, the tight end seven right now in ADP. Listen, I've
13:13got him as tight end 10, and even that I don't love. People need to understand You just need to understand that Kyle
13:21Pitts is a [ __ ] nothingburger when Drake London is on the field. It was nearly a 10-point fantasy difference in
13:27games when Kyle Pitts played that Drake London did not play compared to when Drake London did play. He's genuinely just not very good. Like I watch these
13:35Falcons games and he'll make a few good plays each year and people will like gawk at his athletic upside, but if you
13:41genuinely watch him play, he's way more of just like a catch-and-fall guy than you realize. Way more often than not, he's actually not making plays with the
13:48ball in his hand and he needs to be force-fed targets when other guys are not on the field in order for him to see
13:53that upside come to fruition. Among 49 qualified tight ends last year, his 4.5 yards after catch per reception ranked 35th. And I think that's what you get
14:01typically when you give Kyle Pitts a high volume of targets. So, the quarterback situation is questionable at best there. If Drake London stays on the
14:09field, Kyle Pitts is giving you borderline tight end one numbers. For him to be going anywhere even near the the second-year players of Tyler Warren,
14:18Harold Fannin, above Sam LaPorta, like could never ever ever ever ever be me.
14:25And then lastly, we're actually going to just talk about the quarterback position as a whole because if you look at my
14:31overall rankings, which are available on the website right now, bge.co, I am significantly lower than almost every quarterback not named Josh Allen
14:40when it comes to their ranking within like overall one quarterback rankings.
14:44I'm just much lower than consensus on a lot of these guys because I think the quarterback position down to like QB 15
14:51is so so so deep. Like right now, Brock Purdy is the quarterback 12. Matthew Stafford is the quarterback 13. Mahomes is the quarterback 14. Bo Nix 15, Jared
15:01Goff 16. I mean, Jordan Love is down at quarterback 20. I just don't really see a world where I'm drafting Caleb
15:07Williams with my like sixth or seventh round pick when I can get Brock Purdy or Matthew Stafford 50 picks later. I still
15:14have to get a little bit more clear on my take on Lamar Jackson on whether or not I want to put him closer to the Josh
15:20Allen's here or further down towards like the Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye's of the world, but I just don't see a point per game difference from a
15:27lot of these guys to where the quarterback 12, 13, 14 is, right? And I think with Lamar you can make the case
15:32that it's going to be a brand new offense, no more Todd Monken, so there could be a decline in just overall
15:37passing efficiency for something that they've had so much continuity for, but I also don't want to overthink Lamar Jackson. Jayden Daniels showed himself
15:44to be extremely, you know, injury prone at this point, he gets hurt a lot, they don't have great weapons there. Drake
15:49Maye's going to have a much tougher schedule this year. Jalen Hurts doesn't have AJ Brown anymore. Like you can make the case for a lot of these guys having
15:55a little bit more risk reward than in typical years where Josh Allen has been the QB1 across the board for like five
16:00straight years at this point. His upside is a crazy as floor is crazy. So yeah, I I I I think like a a tier two will
16:05eventually kind of emerge from this group, but right now I don't see a world where I'm taking any of these guys 40,
16:1150 spots higher than some of the guys that are further down below. So that was less of a player and more of an overall
16:17trend here where I just feel like the quarterback position if you can get a Jordan Love at quarterback 20 where I
16:22expect Green Bay to pass the ball more, I expect them to be a little bit more condensed in the offense, I expect
16:26Jordan Love to to kind of let it rip this year a bit. These are the guys I'll probably taking more shots on. So there
16:32you have it. Those are five, six, 19 guys that I am lower on than general consensus right now. And as we pick up
16:40the pace of these videos doing more per week, make sure you are subscribed to the channel and always hit the button
16:45that looks like this down below, all right? Put the D in the subscribe button. Let me know what kind of content
16:50you'd like to see for the remainder of the summer. And like I said, all of our rankings and our draft guide and
16:54everything is now available on the bdge.co website in the fantasy membership. Everything is encapsulated in one membership this year, no separate
17:03products. It's all there for you, nicely, neatly packaged. I love y'all and I will see y'all later this week.
17:25>> [music] >> Woo.
