Top Guy Tuesday Mailbag - August Chaos

The source likes A.J. Brown despite his early ADP (17.07 on DraftKings), noting that he is a preferred target even when compared to other high-value players like Drake London and Brock Bowers.

The source considers Antonio Williams undraftable, noting he is buried on the depth chart behind Treylon Burks, Dyami Brown, and Luke McCaffrey, with Stefon Diggs potentially taking slot snaps.

Bucky Irving is a strong value pick in the fifth or sixth round, especially given the uncertainty surrounding Sean Tucker's roster security; Irving is talented, catches passes, and has significant upside to pay off his ADP.

The source prefers Chigoziem Okonkwo over Isaiah Likely, citing a better offensive situation with Jayden Daniels and a significantly lower ADP, making the choice between them an easy one.

Pat Karine is now drafting Chris Bell in the final rounds as his recovery from a late-season ACL tear has trended positively over the last week. While the Dolphins' offense may have low dropback volume and potential ineffectiveness, Bell's immediate opportunity makes him a viable late-round best ball pick.

The source lists Chris Olave as a top-30 'sidekick fade' candidate, noting that while he is very good, he belongs to a tier of receivers that makes them difficult to draft at their current ADP because they do not separate well enough from the rest of the field.

Colston Loveland does not perform well in the source's simulation models, leading to a lack of exposure. While acknowledged as a high-upside player and a solid DFS play based on point-per-dollar metrics, simulation-based roster construction models do not favor him heavily when compared to peers like Brock Bowers and Trey McBride.

The source views Cooper Kupp as a high-upside bet because he is a former high-round pick currently available at a free price point.

The source assumes Davante Adams will likely leave the team next year, which would open up significant target volume for secondary players. When comparing Adams (5.03) to Mike Evans (6.03), the source prefers Adams due to the discount and Evans' recurring nagging injuries in practice.

Denzel Boston is viewed as a higher-probability breakout candidate than Jacobe Lane due to his second-round draft capital and immediate role as the starting X receiver. The source is actively increasing exposure to Boston, who has also received significant training camp hype.

The source identifies DeVonta Smith as a top-30 'sidekick fade' candidate. While acknowledging his talent and potential for a league-winning role if the Eagles' offense improves, the source finds it difficult to draft him over high-value alternatives like Trey McBride in the third round.

The source identifies Hayden Hurst as a viable 18th-round draft target and expresses interest in drafting him.

The source is skeptical of the bull case for Isaiah Likely, noting that he has not been a good fantasy pick historically even when playing with Lamar Jackson and that he is not expected to be an every-route player. He is used as a benchmark for limited route participation, suggesting that even if a tight end earns targets at a high rate, his overall fantasy utility remains questionable.

The source remains unconcerned about Ja'Marr Chase's knee hyperextension, citing his own comments that he could have played through it; the source previously treated his draft position as a one-pick discount relative to Puka Nacua, indicating he is still viewed as a top-tier asset.

The source is skeptical of Jake Ferguson's current ADP after the market moved him up, though acknowledges he could be a breakout candidate if he secures a high target rate and sees increased playing time following the expected departure of Davante Adams next year.

The source expresses enthusiasm for Jalen McMillan, signaling a strong interest in drafting him.

Pat Karine highlights James Conner as a target in the 18th round of drafts, viewing him as a clear trade candidate and a valuable asset for teams in need of running back depth.

Pat Karine uses Jameson Williams as a historical comparison for a rookie returning from an ACL injury, noting that such injuries can often lead to a 'red shirt' year where the player's impact is significantly delayed. Additionally, the source notes Williams was recently selected at the 406 position in drafts.

The source weighed a draft decision between Jaylen Waddle and Travis Etienne, ultimately opting for Etienne because he was the top player available on the draft board at that position.

The source maintains a strong hold on Justin Jefferson, explicitly stating they would not trade him in either dynasty or redraft formats, preferring to keep him on their roster over other options.

Pat Karine suggests that the team's trade for Kayshon Boutte is more indicative of the team's outlook on Tee Higgins than a direct commentary on Tank Dell. Furthermore, the source believes the addition of Boutte helps Nico Collins by allowing the Texans to move Collins around more, noting that Boutte is not a threat to Collins' status as the team's primary target earner.

The source reports positive news regarding Kenneth Walker III, noting that he is no longer in a boot. Earlier observations of him finishing practice early were not believed to indicate a major injury.

The source explicitly states they are not interested in drafting Keon Coleman, even when presented with an 18th-round opportunity.

Malachi Corley is an obvious target at his current late-round price. He is a first-round pick who has already passed Isaiah Williams on the depth chart and is expected to start in the slot. He has a very low bar to pay off his cost, needing only a few productive games similar to Zay Jones's 18th-round value season.

The source is bullish on drafting Malik Nabers in the late second round, noting that he has been actively increasing his exposure to the player in high-stakes formats. The source is confident Nabers will play in Week 1 despite earlier concerns, noting his recovery has been faster than initially reported. Nabers was previously undervalued and under-rostered, leading to a concerted effort to increase exposure.

The source has moved Mike Evans down in their rankings due to age and a series of nagging injuries in practice, creating risk regarding his availability and playing time to start the season. These concerns make him a worse pick at his current price compared to alternatives like Davante Adams.

The source previously viewed Mike Washington as a fade, but recent preseason performance has led to a slight re-evaluation, resulting in the source targeting him around the 130s in slow drafts.

The source expects Nico Collins to remain the clear number one target in the Texans' offense. The addition of Kayshon Boutte is viewed as a potential benefit that allows the team to move Collins around more, and the source asserts there is 0% chance Boutte challenges Collins for the primary target role, especially compared to the previous threat posed by Tee Higgins.

The source notes that Parker Washington is currently being drafted around the 408 position, reflecting the shifting and less predictable nature of current draft rooms.

The source identifies Patrick Mahomes as the QB1 on their squad during a draft.

The source prioritized Puka Nacua over Ja'Marr Chase at the 1.03 draft spot due to uncertainty surrounding Chase's knee injury. Nacua is viewed as a high-end pick, and the source has successfully integrated him into draft builds alongside other key assets like Malik Nabers.

The source has lowered their outlook on Sean Tucker due to reports that his roster spot is in jeopardy, as the Buccaneers may only keep three running backs; even if he makes the team, he faces a difficult path to playing time and could be a healthy scratch.

The source compares the target competition between Stefon Diggs and Terry McLaurin to the Texans' situation, noting that Diggs will likely out-target McLaurin in certain games this season.

The source drafted T.J. Hockenson as part of a Vikings stack, banking on the team's potential for a high-scoring week 17 performance.

Pat Karine has stopped drafting Tank Dell, rating his confidence in his previous shares at a 'three' out of ten. Dell has not been practicing, suggesting a potential setback from his injury, and the team's recent roster moves indicate he may not be the next man up or play much this season. While his price point previously offered value for a potential strong six-game closing stretch, the risk of him being a 'zero' in fantasy lineups makes him a player to avoid.

The source notes that there was previously a possibility that Tee Higgins could have negatively impacted Nico Collins' target share, a threat the source does not see with the recent addition of Kayshon Boutte.

The source mentions Terry McLaurin as a player who will face target competition from Stefon Diggs, with the expectation that Diggs will lead the team in targets in specific matchups.

The source selected Travis Etienne over Jaylen Waddle, noting that Etienne was the top player available on the draft board at that position.

The source remains committed to drafting Travis Hunter despite concerns about his limited practice usage, citing his high-level route running and potential for intermittent fantasy-relevant weeks.

The source cites Trey McBride as a primary reason for not drafting more DeVonta Smith, noting that McBride is a high-value target in the third round coming off a historic tight end season that makes him difficult to pass on.

The source indicates a willingness to acquire Tua Tagovailoa at his current market price, noting they drafted him in the late fourth round for the first time.

The source views Tyler Ferguson as a high-upside tight end target; if he hits this year, he is positioned to emerge into an even better situation next season assuming Matthew Stafford remains healthy.