Top Guy Tuesday Mailbag - Sims and Signings w/ Shaidy Advice
STACKED extracted the fantasy-relevant player signal from this video and kept the full transcript here for context.
1 hr 25 min
Duration
Estimated from transcript
Aug 18, 2026
Published
Tue, August 18, 2026
23
Player insights
23
Players mentioned
Topics
Aaron JonesAJ BarnerAmon-Ra St. BrownBaker MayfieldBrian Thomas Jr.Brock BowersBrock PurdyCharlie KolarChristian McCaffreyChuba HubbardDalton KincaidDarnell WashingtonJacoby BrissettJake Ferguson
Player analysis
Player insights
Aaron Jones
PositiveValue20:36
The Legendary Upside team has increased their valuation of Aaron Jones compared to a few weeks ago, noting that he can be the best pick for a team if available in the 11th round based on recent simulation data.
Insight pageAJ Barner
NegativeRole44:08
AJ Barner is viewed as a starting tight end, but the source notes he is not a 'smash' pick due to potential competition from Elijah Arroyo, which could impact his target share.
Insight pageAmon-Ra St. Brown
PositiveUsage9:12
Shady has prioritized increasing exposure to Amon-Ra St. Brown, recently breaking a tie in his favor over Christian McCaffrey in a 555 draft to correct a previous lack of exposure.
Insight pageBaker Mayfield
PositiveUsage27:51
The Legendary Upside draft simulator frequently recommends taking a third quarterback in the mid-rounds, even when an elite starter is already rostered, with Baker Mayfield cited as a potential target.
Insight pageBrian Thomas Jr.
PositiveUsage46:58
Brian Thomas Jr. has reportedly looked awesome in practice and saw increased target volume while Parker Washington was sidelined.
Insight pageBrock Bowers
PositiveUsage27:11
The Legendary Upside draft simulator frequently recommends overloading at the tight end position, often pairing Brock Bowers with Trey McBride or other mid-round tight ends like Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson.
Insight pageBrock Purdy
PositiveUsage27:51
The Legendary Upside draft simulator frequently recommends taking a third quarterback in the mid-rounds, even when an elite starter is already rostered, with Brock Purdy cited as a potential target.
Insight pageCharlie Kolar
PositiveSleeper10:49
Charlie Kolar is a consistent target for the Legendary Upside platform, recommended as a solid late-round pick in the 16th to 18th rounds. While his specific role remains somewhat ambiguous, he is viewed as a potential nominal starter in a high-powered offense who could provide spike-week production in best ball formats. He is also suggested as a viable late-round stack with Justin Herbert to provide a secondary scoring path in tournament builds.
Insight pageChristian McCaffrey
NegativeUsage9:15
Shady holds a 12.8% exposure rate to Christian McCaffrey on DraftKings, though he recently opted to draft Amon-Ra St. Brown over him in a tie-breaking scenario to balance his portfolio.
Insight pageChuba Hubbard
PositiveValue42:28
Chuba Hubbard is considered a value pick at pick 119, significantly lower than his 195 ADP. While the source was previously out on him at his earlier price, they feel good about him as a running back three at this current valuation.
Insight pageDalton Kincaid
PositiveUsage27:43
Dalton Kincaid is recommended as a top pick by the Sidekick tool in current builds, especially when elite options like Travis Kelce are off the board. The simulator also suggests overloading at tight end by pairing Kincaid with other options like Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson.
Insight pageDarnell Washington
PositiveSleeper11:01
Darnell Washington is identified as an interesting late-round tight end option due to current role ambiguity, offering potential for spike weeks in best ball formats. He is considered a decent use of a roster spot to accumulate additional points in deep draft formats.
Insight pageJacoby Brissett
PositiveValue43:36
The Leg Up platform has actively supported Jacoby Brissett as a target.
Insight pageJake Ferguson
PositiveUsage27:43
The Legendary Upside draft simulator suggests overloading at the tight end position, with builds often including Jake Ferguson alongside other mid-round options like Brock Bowers and Dalton Kincaid.
Insight pageJayden Daniels
PositiveUsage27:51
The Legendary Upside draft simulator frequently recommends taking a third quarterback in the mid-rounds, even when an elite starter is already rostered, with Jayden Daniels cited as a potential target.
Insight pageJonathan Taylor
NegativeUsage9:12
Shady reports a 3.8% exposure rate to Jonathan Taylor across his current DraftKings draft portfolio.
Insight pageKeenan Allen
NegativeValue0:26
Keenan Allen is a high-priority value target following his signing with the Colts. The source actively drafts him well ahead of his Underdog ADP of 141, identifying the 140s to 170s as the 'sweet spot' for acquisition. Simulation models now highlight him as an excellent 17th-round pick for teams lacking wide receiver depth. To ensure accurate roster construction and avoid drafting based on outdated or artificially inflated values, the source utilizes an ADP override in their models.
Insight pageMarShawn Lloyd
PositiveValue17:10
MarShawn Lloyd remains a target the source is bullish on and has gone hard for, despite his ADP rising beyond the 18th-round value range he previously occupied.
Insight pageParker Washington
NegativeValue43:48
Parker Washington's ADP has risen significantly, creating opportunity cost concerns. While the source is not concerned about his minor injury, they suggest his rising price may stall his status as a top recommendation unless he falls to the 6th round.
Insight pagePuka Nacua
NegativeUsage9:01
Shady reports a 4.5% exposure rate to Puka Nacua in DraftKings drafts, noting that he has been under-drafting the player relative to others.
Insight pageTerrance Ferguson
NegativeValue43:48
The source is less bullish on Terrance Ferguson, noting he is in a tight end committee and fighting to be the third target in the Dallas offense. While he occasionally appears as a recommendation in the Sidekick tool, the source resists the 'drumbeat' due to his significantly risen ADP.
Insight pageTrey McBride
PositiveUsage15:39
Trey McBride is considered a high-floor asset in best ball, locking up a starting tight end spot in 70% of weeks. The Legendary Upside simulator frequently recommends pairing him with elite or mid-round options like Brock Bowers, Dalton Kincaid, or Jake Ferguson. While the source is skeptical of four-tight-end builds on McBride teams for tournament play, he remains a core piece of successful roster constructions.
Insight pageTyler Conklin
PositiveUsage37:05
Tyler Conklin is suggested as a late-round tight end stack with Sam Darnold to provide tournament-winning upside.
Insight pageFull transcript
Episode Transcript
0:00Welcome to the Legendary Upside Podcast and YouTube channel. My name is Pat Kerrane.
0:05You follow my content at legendaryupside.com. With me today, Shady Advice.
0:09We are going to be talking through uh some of the the new stuff we got going on at at Leg Up. Um
0:16some cool tools to show you guys and answer some questions from the Leg Up Discord in the chat for this mailbag
0:25episode.
0:26Um I assume people will have questions about the Sims and stuff, but a lot of signings as well. Keenan Allen a feature
0:33of of drafts today. I see signed with the Colts.
0:36So, uh we have a we have a question on that. I'm sure people have questions about that kind of stuff as well. So,
0:41yeah, we're going to get to it all.
0:42Shady, how's it going?
0:45>> Good. Let's see. I was at the beach this weekend. Took down the MLB slate last night and then MLB finals are this
0:51weekend. So, you know, let's hope for heating up for a good good couple of couple of weeks here.
0:58>> Beautiful. Um So, yeah, let's uh Do you want to pull up Do you want to share your screen here and we can kind of kick things off with
1:07uh what we got going on at apps.legendaryupside.com.
1:11>> Yeah, this is going to take a little while to make sure I don't share the wrong thing.
1:15>> [laughter] >> The screen.
1:17Yeah. I know how to do this.
1:21I'd like to share a window. I want it to be this one.
1:34>> All right.
1:35>> That seems to be like a thing that >> All right, let me get this.
1:37>> Okay, to have it up on screen.
1:39>> [laughter] >> It's always dicey.
1:45>> Um All right, so this is over at apps.legendaryupside.com and we've got Shady showing his exposures on both Underdog and DK.
1:56Uh the the sidekick pulls in the DraftKings one, you upload your Underdog via CSV.
2:05And uh yeah, what what else what else we want to say here?
2:09>> I don't know. I think it's fun to poke around this. Um I it's probably pretty small on your screen. Is that for people
2:17>> It's reasonably small.
2:19I can maybe do a little zoom in.
2:21>> change the zoom here.
2:24>> There you go.
2:25>> There we go. All right. Um so I'm through 120k in entry fees, mostly on DraftKings, which we can see here.
2:33Um it looks like my rate on the sites was pretty even, I would looks like sort of like as proportion.
2:41But yeah, I think we're going to jump in and look at some of the player exposures, we'll look at lineups and do
2:46stuff like that.
2:48Um You can see that my my average entry fee is about three times what it is on DraftKings compared to Underdog, so that
2:58is where a lot of that well the volume is mostly in um the dollar volume is on DraftKings, whereas the draft count volume is on
3:07Underdog, if that makes sense.
3:08>> Right, right.
3:09>> So >> 555 is is probably making up a bigger percentage of your draft volume than the big dog is on
3:14Underdog, I would guess.
3:15>> I think we're about to get my first 3K to finish on DK. That'll be fun. It's a slow It is
3:22cranking along. The first one that ran.
3:24Only one 3K so far. Really get that liquidity up so I can get the rest of those done.
3:30Uh and not miss those.
3:32Um So this is the exposure tab here. I'm like the worst person to walk through this. I think uh Sack did a much better
3:41job on his stream with JSU cuz he was really sort of one of our main testers about like what he wanted to see as see
3:46things here. But uh I think the main thing to do is sort fees by I'm going to be on all slates.
3:53I'm going to sort this by fees rather than percentage and we can see like where I'm pretty sad where I'm happy. So
4:00obviously Kadary Lemon is the one that I'm going to have bad closing line ADP value on I think, right? Unless I don't know he comes back and
4:09these next two >> No, he will.
4:11>> He's going to nuke them. All right, okay. So when he does that uh all the >> No, you you'll your closing line value
4:17will be bad.
4:18>> Yeah, oh yeah, but I'll be happy I have it.
4:19>> He'll be a good pick regardless cuz I don't think Yeah, I think you'll you might be happy at the end of the year.
4:25>> Yeah, going to be great.
4:26>> But I don't think CLV is going to be the way >> 42K fees on Kadary Lemon, so let's hope not a future zero.
4:34And then the other one that I like to see on here which is >> He's Dragan Shady. I don't know if you
4:38saw.
4:39>> Yeah, Dragan doing things. We love to see it. And somewhere on here is going to be Brazel which is um
4:48the sad one. Yeah, so >> that's that's a truly sad one, yeah.
4:50>> Yeah, so 22K of goodbye Brazel in 14% of my drafts which is mostly it's like 24% on DK, only 9% on Underdog
5:01unfortun- fortunately I suppose on Underdog.
5:04Um and it was mostly in I guess really small early drafts or something cuz like my fee percentage is very small on
5:11Underdog there.
5:13Um what do you what do you want to I mean, what do you want to see about my stuff? It's yours. It's mine. It's ours.
5:19>> Go to if you go to draft board at the top.
5:24It's close to player table. And then pick a slate. So pick like uh >> Let's do DK >> DK regular best ball. Yeah.
5:32So that'll show you where you have and have not been drafting guys by by ADP which I think is pretty pretty fun and
5:38>> fun.
5:39>> Yeah.
5:41>> So it looks like I've gotten unlucky I guess with 104 is on DK.
5:47I only have 4.5% Puka, which is interesting.
5:51Um >> Yeah, I have 3.8% Amon-Ra, 3.8% Taylor, 12.8% McCaffrey. So, last night I did a 555 and
6:01broke a tie to Amon-Ra over McCaffrey cuz I just haven't had any Amon-Ra.
6:07Um Really? I I literally had zero 555s with Amon-Ra until that point, so you know, if you're trying to I think this type of stuff can be pretty
6:16helpful for one, just figuring out like are there guys you aren't taking and never think about cuz with exposures you sometimes you do focus on the guys you
6:23are taking, but who are you not taking I think can be pretty helpful, too. So, this this is good for that.
6:29Um you can see where you're making big stands throughout the draft. I should mention this is all uh part of the Leg
6:34Up sub, so this is not a Sidekick only feature. If you want to check [snorts] this out, it's 15 bucks a
6:40month over at Leg Up or if you're already a subscriber, just head to apps.legendaryupside.com.
6:45Um the Sidekick extension you can now get as a Leg Up sub and you'll you'll be able to use the kickstand. So, for
6:51pulling in lineups and stuff, you you can install the the Sidekick extension.
6:56And uh for the Underdog one, you just upload the CSV that that Underdog uh emails you when you request it on the
7:02on the site, so yeah, this is all live and ready to check out.
7:09Hope people enjoy it.
7:11Uh should we get to some questions?
7:13>> Yeah, I've got some questions and uh >> Artillery Frost, who um came up with the uh
7:23the chaperone term, also suggested the draft boards, he's saying, so real real value member, Artillery Frost. You got to You got to give him credit. Uh
7:33let's answer his question first. A question I know Shady will hate. I've noticed an uptick recently. It feels like in four tight end builds. For
7:40instance, Pat and Pete took four tight ends on a big bride team in Actually, it was a big dog, not a Best
7:46Ball Mania. Did you guys change the inputs or did the landscape change in Best Ball that made this happen more?
7:54>> Um we we definitely haven't changed So we've I mean, we're changing player inputs all the time, and ADP is changing
8:01all the time, and those are inputs. But like we don't we haven't changed um the Hi, cat. Let's not hang out up
8:09there. We haven't changed like the mechanics of how we evaluate things.
8:12We've just changed those kind of inputs.
8:15>> [snorts] >> Um And so that's that's the answer. I think the one of the things you will get more like um
8:24What's the word I'm looking for?
8:26Like cover-your-ass type builds in the big dog, right? Cuz you the biggest thing you're doing is beating 10 people, right? It's two of
8:3512, one of six, one of six.
8:3710-person final. So like the the upside in a big dog is less. You'll still get it some in in BBM, but like I
8:45those sorts of builds where you're like covering an injury for a couple of weeks or making sure that you get some
8:52interesting combos through and have like the little bit more floor in your like weekly point swings. Um >> Yeah, I think the
9:06one thing, too, is that I I think as far as the structural stuff goes, people, you know, often the way we've talked about structure
9:14traditionally has really been about the number of players at each position as the quick shorthand, right? So four tight end build.
9:20But, you know, that big dog that I built with Pete, I forget where we took the second tight end, but it wasn't early,
9:27and we we did stacks, I believe with all three of our quarterbacks, so I forget.
9:34I I shouldn't I should be able to remember cuz it was like 2 days ago, but it was like literally it was like Barner
9:39and or and Hockenson and Dolch and Schultz or something like that with a McBride team. It might have even been I
9:45don't might have been even later than that.
9:47So, when is that second tight end happening?
9:50If the second tight end's happening in like the 14th or 15th round, it's like not that actually different from the way
9:56we used to build as far as you're still not bringing that much in terms of draft capital at the tight end position
10:03on a McBride team.
10:05Are you allocating more roster spots than we ever would have before the Sims?
10:08Yeah, for sure. But then I think that goes to what are you using those roster spots for if not tight end and
10:18I think we probably a couple years ago would have used them at receiver and then some at running back, but we
10:25still don't have a ton of really great running back bets in the in the final rounds.
10:30The ones that have gotten better have often been pulled up. So, like MarShawn Lloyd and stuff, he's not an 18th round
10:35pick. An awesome 18th round pick, but that's not where he goes now. So, when we got more information on a lot of
10:40these running backs, the price has changed.
10:42And so, when you are down especially in DraftKings, I just did a five draft tight end DraftKings build.
10:49Um and it's like, yeah, you know, you know who is still down here? Charlie Kolar.
10:55>> [laughter] >> And he's pretty good pick in the in the 16th, 17th, 18th. You get you know, you get to those final rounds, you might
11:01have Rodgers, Darnell Washington pops up or whatever. Like I do think they're a pretty decent use of a roster spot to try to get some
11:08additional points.
11:10Um and your overall allocation of draft capital at the position might not end up being super high.
11:17Uh you know, even if you spend four roster spots there.
11:21>> I was just clicking around to look at I remembered I had one it was I thought it might have been a BBM or a
11:26big dog, but it was a a pitbull today.
11:28One of my last two was a Bowers then Kelce and then Dultrich and Washington for tight end room. So, has a bigger playoff
11:38bigger final size than the big dog but still still there so >> Yeah. Yeah.
11:43Um All right, so how far up is Keenan had him suggested today 40 picks ahead of ADP. I believe we have Keenan now in the
11:51140s um and he is uh someone that we are taking well ahead of of ADP. Yeah, currently he's at 141
12:02for us on Underdog.
12:04Um and I've been taking him a lot today in like the 160s.
12:10Uh this is one of those things where obviously you like you kind of want to try to grab a little bit of of value on
12:16Keenan if you you can not take him like where he'd perfectly efficiently priced cuz not everyone is is thinking about him. I did a 555
12:24earlier and I did get him think it like 168 or something. So I felt pretty good about that.
12:31But you know, I think he's kind of fair value and probably in the 140s. I in the rankings I just kind of got him where he comes
12:39out.
12:40Um and we are seeing in the sidekick him he flips Travis Hunter sometimes not all the times right now.
12:48So that's kind of the the vibe that you know, I think we're at on Keenan like he it's it's possible you know, if he moves up like if the
12:56market decides he's in the 130s. I don't think we wouldn't see him at all.
13:01But uh right now somewhere between like the 140 to to 170 range is kind of the Keenan sweet spot I would say.
13:10Does that align with what you've seen?
13:12>> Yeah, I do think that people sometimes ask about I can be in the sidekick like this is one of them. Like try to be if
13:17you're in a draft or you think you can get away with Keenan around a two later.
13:20Like he's probably going to stay at the top of the sidekick for a while. So you're this is not something where he's
13:24going to reroll if you're in the 150s and there's a Keenan up there and you think you can push him around and get
13:28him in the 160s or something. I got him at like 203 or something in a DK BBM like You just sit some rooms where no one's
13:36paying attention and they're sort of always looking at the top section of whatever it is they're doing. Um I suspect Underdog you can't
13:43get away with that like you can on DK.
13:47>> Yep. Um All right.
13:51Question about the rake.
13:53You know, the DK rake. Can the sidekick beat the rake?
13:58>> Yes, next question.
13:59>> [laughter] >> There's a there's just like a general misconception in like even daily fantasy about like what it means to beat the like who is
14:09paying the rake and how you beat it and how like what you need to do. Like you care about the amount of dead money. I
14:13think that question that was actually specifically asking about the DK flagship which is the one that I think has that rake. Maybe the other ones do
14:20too. But um yeah, there's just a lot of really really bad teams that are just donating all of their entry essentially
14:27or nearly all of it so that you're just like the rake is sort of covered by other people in some sense in those.
14:33Um but it's also good enough to beat the 555 which I'm playing in. Not that there aren't terrible directors there as well.
14:40>> Yeah.
14:41Um If I only have median >> Not financial advice. Don't say that.
14:45>> Right. We wouldn't [snorts] be doing I mean Shady just shared his fees. There was You're paying some fees I would say. So
14:53I certainly hope it is >> more than beat the rake. Yeah.
14:56>> Yeah.
14:56>> That would be the goal.
14:58>> [snorts] >> If I only have median and ceiling projections per player, no game level context like Vegas total spreads or play
15:03volume, what would you recommend for building sims?
15:06>> Yeah, so people ask me these sorts of questions in in DFS all the time and it's the one I just like I I can't give
15:12you an answer that isn't the right answer and if I had if I were to give you the right answer I'd have to charge
15:16you a whole lot of money for the right answer. Like it's just like I yes, there are things you should >> I'd is that you get the sidekick.
15:22>> Yeah, >> Yeah, [laughter] use which does it for you in there but like it is again like I I've done some like
15:29like tutoring consulting or and stuff and so like but there's like certain for DFS people and there's like certain questions I just like tell them in
15:35advance like I I can't answer this for you because I know the answer and you're giving anything other than the correct
15:40answer feels dishonest and so like I don't know know what I should do here.
15:45Um >> Yeah.
15:48Um What percentage of BBM entries would you estimate are drafted using the sidekick?
15:56>> Um let's see. I feel like it's a lot less than most people think and like I >> Yeah.
16:02>> I feel like not leaking our business info about sub base and what our drafters are doing is probably the better answer here.
16:09>> [laughter] >> It's less than you'd think I would guess.
16:11>> Yeah, less than you're panicking or like >> Yeah.
16:14>> I mean if you were to just like count the number of people you know are sidekick subscribers are probably maxing
16:18BBM like that's probably about right.
16:20>> Right.
16:20>> Give or take some other people you don't know about.
16:23Double it, triple it, whatever you want to do.
16:25>> This kind of goes to the tight end question. Yeah, I yeah, I agree. Um Shady would love to hear you you talk
16:31about some of the situations where the sim seems to suggest overloading at the onesie positions. It frequently likes McBride with Bowers or
16:40a third mid-round tight end with an elite already.
16:43So I think that would be like you get Bowers and then you get like Kincaid and Ferguson something like that which I
16:50have seen.
16:51It also frequently likes a third quarterback in the mid-rounds even with an elite so that might be what Daniels, Purdy Baker something like that. I I certainly
17:03yeah. So those are uh this this question is is pointing at something that that very much does happen. Um any any thoughts on that?
17:14>> Yeah, I mean so again the answer is it recommends the things that on average make the most money, which is like the
17:19the the refrain that will end up in the video somewhere. But the uh the reason you could think through it possibly being that way is like there's
17:26lots of ways that you can like win a finals for a lot of money. One of the obvious ones is you perfect checked for
17:33a lot more points like than the average field and like you make a lot of money. That's awesome. That's pretty simple to think through. But
17:41there's lots of other like paths to like low ownerships or other things that a contest sim is going to figure out is a
17:47good way to make money because of the way playoffs ping-pong or the way they help you advance guys who maybe are low
17:54advance rate pieces due to larger injuries or something.
17:58Um and so I just think those are those are the things you're seeing when those things that are like I know that I am spending more money
18:08here or more draft capital or there's going to be for sure a zero in a round that's higher than I'm comfortable with
18:14in week 17.
18:16They're just looking at the the sims are looking at other ways you make money beyond like the raw draft capital bucket analysis type stuff
18:25that you can do with historical data.
18:28>> Yeah, and I think like one of the things about using a sim-based approach is that you can get to builds that aren't super comfy. We've
18:38kind of carved out certain paths, I think, with BBM where we're like we feel pretty confident these are like pretty good builds. And and I would say the
18:45sims have backed up some of that intuitive thinking of like this type of build, the hyper-fragile builds. Like there's nothing in the sims that's like
18:54take four running backs early and stick with four. That's like it's not like a a rubric.
19:00And like it's it's every single pick it's falling in line based on what makes you the most money at that pick based on
19:05what you have and what is available and what you know, is generally available later based on ADP, right? So but that type of build has been it's
19:14like, oh, yeah, like we we thought of this one, right? And the Sims kind of give it to us that it
19:19always you know, not like all the time, but it's it's a it's a high enough rate where you go like, okay, this is clearly
19:24like a sort of like a stamped build.
19:26Generally, of course, the types of players that you have for that, maybe the Sims are picking up on things we didn't think about, etc. But, there are
19:34builds that I get with the Sims where I'm like, huh, this one's weird, but especially what I take a look at cuz I got slows going
19:42where I'm like, you know, I'll kind of take a look at what I'm in and often, you know, I'm in like the puppy
19:49three or uh the slow puppy or whatever. I'm like, yeah, let's see where we're going. Like, I kind of want to know what this type of like
19:58off-the-beaten-path build can look like um and using Sims allows me to explore those types of builds in a mathematically sound way where I'm
20:08not just kind of like throwing [ __ ] at the wall.
20:11Um and I think that's kind of fun. Uh and yeah, I think being a little bit more overpowered at the one season is is one
20:18that is definitely jumped out. One thing I'll note in some of my slows right now is that I'm you know, I might have four running
20:26backs or maybe even five running backs and I thought I was done. Frankly, the Sims from a week ago probably thought I was also
20:34done, but we like Bill a little bit more than we did a couple weeks ago. We like Aaron Jones a little bit more than we
20:42did a couple weeks ago. And if those guys are sitting there in the 11th, it might be the best pick for your team.
20:49And it's like the structure isn't kind of the be-all end-all there. It's like, hey, you showed up here. We have more
20:55information about your team than we did when you made picks earlier.
20:59And it's the thing that makes you the most money now with the inputs we have now and the Sims today might be slightly different. Like Keenan
21:09Allen would be a would be an example too of like Keenan Allen might be a best pick for a team that we
21:15right before he signed, you you didn't have any wide receivers popping up anywhere near the top of the sidekick.
21:19But now you do because Keenan Allen is an awesome pick for your team cuz you're in the 17th round.
21:25>> Yes.
21:26>> [laughter] >> Um all right, let's let's take some questions from the chat here. I'll I'll get back to the the Leg Up Discord here
21:37in a second. Actually, I'm also going to jump us in a a BBM draft here.
21:41Um yeah, nothing will convince me four tight ends on a McBride team is a good move, at least not a way I want to play
21:47tournaments.
21:48I mean that's fine. I also don't think uh if it is the move, then I'll win and you won't, you know? It's
21:53kind of kind of one [laughter] of those one of those things.
21:56>> is not to convince you that we're going to make you money. It's just to do what I do and hope hope you
22:03subscribe at some point in your life.
22:05>> Um all right, let's see.
22:13Yeah, I what I would say so this is the 0.02% edge in advancing has to be a massive trade-off for week 17. Like the
22:21can you just talk a little bit about like the way kind of generally this sim-based process is working because we do get data of like oh, it
22:28probably helps you advance but at what cost, you know? Clearly you're like you're torching EV in the final just to get a little more advance
22:36rate. That doesn't make sense. I mean there's no way to actually know that that's what's happening, but also as like first off when you're just watching
22:42it, but it's but that is the type of pushback we get sometimes on on those types of things of like that fourth tight end on a McBride
22:50build.
22:51>> Yeah, so it's easiest way to think about it is start with like one NFL season that simulates out. All the games are played, all all
23:00score points, and then all of those so that that we have like a one season that we could figure out like exactly
23:08what every any roster you could think of, we know exactly how it would score in every week, and how it would what we could do.
23:15And so then we >> In that world, you would just draft like very specifically.
23:22>> Yeah, you would know exactly >> was Yeah, you would know exactly what happened.
23:24>> exactly like which players scored what, and you would like be able to piece them together very precisely to get an exact
23:30But like so let's pretend we have that, and so we take one when you're at a pick, we take every player that you could pick at that
23:37position, plus your original team, plus every way that you could do the rest of that draft to construct a whole bunch of teams that you could
23:48theoretically draft, sort of, without getting into specifics, and then we take all of those teams in that one year and see how they would do in your
23:56contest. So that means seeing all the scores up to week 14, deciding whether or not you would advance or not in a
24:02typical um pod. We don't actually do your exact room, but just say because we don't predict out all the rest of the teams in
24:09your draft, we just predict out yours.
24:11So you're okay, what's the chance of the advance? And if you And then we do the same thing for 15, 16, and 17, in which we are, you
24:18know, simulating how you would do in the actual pods based on the size of your contest, based on the structure.
24:23And then you either in that one season something happens.
24:27Your team stopped making money at some point. Maybe it didn't advance, so you made $0 or whatever you get in there.
24:32Maybe it made it to week 15 and got third in the pod and made whatever min or slightly more than min cash. So like
24:38that money is then the amount of team that that that each of your So for every of one of those roster combos, we do that check,
24:47right? And so if we had only one season sim, there would be a correct answer to what which draft made you But which
24:53draft path of the entire draft made you the most money? It would it would do that. Instead of doing it on one season
24:58cuz that would be silly because that would be very precise and no one can predict exactly the way one of those
25:03seasons would go.
25:04>> wrong.
25:04>> a lot more money. Well, no, I'd just make a lot more money if I could do that. [laughter] >> Uh Well, yeah, yeah, yeah.
25:09>> But exactly. I use it on things other than predicting the outcome.
25:11>> think you'd use it on best ball if it was if it was real, yeah. Yeah.
25:14>> Uh right. But so we do that tens of thousands of times and then we take the average money that any all of those all
25:20of those possible ways that your draft could go, we take that average across all of those possible seasons and that's the average money you make. So that's
25:26that average is a combination of all the ways you make money. It's when you make first place in the contest, it's when
25:32you advance but go anywhere. So it's like that is that's like the that's a definition of the expected value of a choice, right?
25:38It is the amount of money on average a choice makes you when you consider all possible outcomes of the season and all possible outcomes for the
25:47draft. And so that is how you calculate the expected value of a choice compared to other choices.
25:54>> Right.
25:56Um okay.
25:57Uh on Keenan, is the sidekick net right now just recommending him wherever he is the top value or is there still an ADP
26:04override that is just way above his current ADP?
26:09>> So there is an ADP override but not in the way that I think that question's asking, right? The ADP override is important
26:17mostly for deciding earlier in the draft when you can get a player later, right?
26:22So we don't want you in the third round thinking you can still get Keenan in the 18th round cuz that would build you bad
26:28teams when he's going to be going in the 160s or whatever it is he goes in your draft. And so that's very important to
26:34have an ADP override in there, right?
26:36You don't want to plan a team around fake values for ADP. So that's in there.
26:40And then there is some amount of hey, so we're not building your teams like he's still going in there. But there is some amount of like, "Hey, this
26:49player is past ADP" which is important for thinking about combos and the way that you can get unique things. And that
26:55also has to be overridden a little bit because the combos you can get are actually defined by where a player is
26:59really going. Um in drafts rather than where they used to go in an underdog ADP way. So, like they are overridden, but there's not an
27:08override in the sense that like that is why you're seeing Keenan. You're always seeing the pick that makes you the most money on average
27:16with some diversity stuff and that's why we are that's why overriding the ADP matters, right? Cuz it actually changes what you
27:24can draft and when you should draft a player.
27:28>> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, especially like if you we were in the 140s, it's like, "Wow, you can get Keenan later." It's
27:34like, "No, you can't."
27:35>> [laughter] >> In fact, this is kind of where you you take him. So, we have that we have that factored in.
27:41Um all right.
27:49Uh again on the McBride, you can only start two tight ends. You have McBride locking up one of the two 70% of the
27:54weeks though.
27:55I think it's one of those things with some of the tight end stuff where you have um the ability for these tight ends to
28:02spike. It's the the McBride four tight end stuff generally, I would say, it ends a lot of the overpowered, you know, like
28:10four even five tight end builds. It's almost always with multiple final round stabs at the position. And I think part of the just to kind of like fully flush
28:20out the tight end point. I think the landscape of this year is a really big part of it where where we're finding this year, and maybe it
28:28has kind of stuff to do with them. I think it does with the with teams playing more tight ends. Like we've got
28:34tight ends that are you know, not clear [snorts] clear cut starters that look like they could be interesting this year. Like a Darnell
28:42Washington. You know, where there's some ambiguity as well. Like what is Charlie Kolar's role? Like is this a is this a
28:48just some weird summer side op, you know? Or is like he kind of you know, the the nominal starter for a
28:55really good offense where yeah, he doesn't have like an awesome role, but it's like good enough that he can spike for you in the final rounds of a best
29:02ball draft a couple times in a season, you know? So I think there's guys like that and then you're comparing them to
29:08some of the the receivers where it's like, you know, like what is that is what Demario Douglas is, too, you know, who like he is a 20th viable
29:1720th round dark throw on DraftKings. Um you're really kind of looking at a similar player level bet at some of the wide receivers
29:26and and the tight ends. And then at running back you're you're sometimes looking at guys who might be healthy scratches all season in
29:34those final rounds and that gets obviously pretty pretty shaky. So um it's important to note, I think, with a lot of those types of builds that
29:41you're we are finally talking talking about um usually one, two, maybe even three guys in the very uh end of the draft.
29:51Um which has a lot to do with what the final rounds of the draft look like in a given year.
30:00All right, how much of Shady's drafting is fast versus slow? One thing I've noticed is my Jacquard percentile is much lower than others that also top
30:08click a lot and I'm wondering if that is part of it.
30:12Uh I don't What is mine? It So My guess the timing >> is the timing of the >> when you've been drafting would be would
30:19be a much bigger impact than fast versus slow. Like if you just jammed drafts in one week >> cover lots of Slows, by definition, if
30:27you sort of stagger them, will have a >> Good point, yeah.
30:31>> cuz they just they they're exposed to a higher variety of ADP landscapes.
30:36>> Yeah, you're right. Slows would have more of a >> Yeah, I mean, if you did >> Yeah.
30:40>> I mean, if you did 150 slows exactly at one and then and then did it but uh um that's right right I think the spirit of
30:47the question.
30:48Um and then I think there's also like it it depends I think I have to double check with Luke or Zach I think we might be combining
30:57different underdog stuff together so like my underdog is different than my DraftKings um
31:07thing and so that has like we're like if you're um I think there's like weekly winners and
31:18any of like the 18 rounds might all be combined and I have to go look at the filters for the Jaccard stuff to
31:22actually answer that question precisely.
31:24The real answer is like I would not worry about it uh if it's between like 5% tile and 100% tile like it it's
31:33you're being pretty diverse. It's like when you get really really small into the kernel that it uh starts to be things and it
31:42if you're using the sidekick then you're getting the right diversity rate and so >> Yeah that's I've talked to Zach about
31:52the Jaccard stuff as well and he said the same thing of like you're you want to be diverse enough if you're
31:59if you're not then you know then you want to work on that but it's not like you're gaining a ton by
32:04being super diverse beyond >> Yeah it's also it's an older thing we came up with that was like purely based around how we calibrate it to an 18
32:13round Underdog BBM draft is like there's like a there's a much wider spectrum of things you could be drafting compared to
32:19when we like release those tools initially and so I think >> Mhm.
32:22>> Uh well that like the 0% to 1% I think it's still calibrated to that or a 20 round DraftKings Underdog equivalent.
32:31I think we would do a different article and and concepts um if we were to do from whole cloth now, but it's still a fun little chart to
32:41look at to think about where you're concentrated and where you're spread out across the rounds and positions.
32:46>> Yeah.
32:47Uh there's some some questions related to your your home office setup here.
32:53Hopefully that the cats decided to grace us with their >> Yeah, all of those are questions for my lovely wife as what you see behind her
32:59is her workstation during the day. Mine is here on account of us >> [laughter] >> over there.
33:06>> So on account of that's why you're sitting in front of it?
33:07>> Yeah, I mean it's one of there are I have four computers that are mine within uh >> Yeah.
33:14>> reach here. And so mine are all out of frame except I guess the corner of this backup laptop.
33:20Um so and I it's just a default screen that rotates through on whatever Windows version she's on. And so it'll it'll
33:26change at 5:00 p.m. every day.
33:29>> Yeah.
33:30Uh this was the Artillery Frost has us covered with the build that sparked this whole McBride uh line of questions.
33:40Uh Hakanson, Kolar, and Barner with Herbert, Murray, and Darnold. Darnold.
33:45Uh so we had three stacked tight ends with McBride. I thought it was fun. I still think it's fun.
33:51And I'm glad we built it that way, but I get why people are like, "Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. You have McBride.
33:55You're supposed to stop at two."
33:57And like who says? And then how did they how did we arrive at that answer versus how are we arriving at at that build? I feel
34:05better about how we got to the build.
34:08Um are five and six players from the same team really a good option in weekly winners?
34:17>> Yeah.
34:17>> You have a lot of teams like that. I I don't have a lot of finished weekly winners. Yeah.
34:22>> Yes, I think I'd get five or six sometimes. So like it is I get I have the same answer for like
34:28the four ti- like people are way too focused on what your bench looks like.
34:33Right, from like what everybody has a ton of zeros always on their team, right? Cuz you can only score so many players. And so the like
34:40who doesn't score on your team doesn't matter as much as like who does. And so weekly winners, the way I think about it
34:46is like if four is the right number to stack, like what's more likely that you got the wrong random guy who scored one
34:55or two touchdowns to hit your lineup from that team, and so you want a different guy to try and also to get the
35:00outcomes where that was the person who scored two touchdowns, or like some other random dart throw, right? So you're not, unlike DFS where they're
35:07they're like there is a cap that a roster can score because every player on the roster scores points, and you sum
35:13them all up and it matters. Um in best ball, you're guaranteed to have zeros, and so there're going to be people who are not
35:20on uh who aren't giving you points, and so you're There are some places where it's better to have like you're choosing
35:26different ways that zeros impact. And so in this case, you're choosing futures in which a different late round player from the same team as another one maybe
35:36catches a couple touchdowns instead of one of ones you had earlier, right? And then you're not really changing like you're swapping one for one in like
35:43the winning lineup in weekly winners when that happens, right? It's just a slightly different future where two two touchdown passes went to somebody else,
35:49or like the goal line, somebody fell down at the one.
35:52>> You got basically the thesis of the bet correct.
35:54>> the bet right because it's not even that they eat that both players hit your lineup. It's that you were directionally
35:59accurate on this team. Yeah. Exactly. So you're you're swapping out like future outcomes that are really similar but like slightly different. And so you're
36:07like, "Oh, you know, I want this one extra player rather than this one extra player." I think the same thing happens
36:12with the four tight end builds that are really late like that. Like it is it's thinking through like I have this future
36:17where all of this is right, and one late tight end is what matters in this subset of seasons. And so it's like swapping in
36:23a little bit of a different thing there.
36:25It's like actually what There's actually some outcome or some outcomes where this is the one you wanted to swap in instead. And it it ends up making you
36:31more money.
36:31>> Well, I mean, the one that we build, it was like super easy for me to see what was kind of happening where you have you've
36:39got McBride, and then you have Hockenson stacked with Murray, Kolar stacked with Herbert, and Bonner stacked with Darnold. And it's like, yeah, if I flip
36:49this team over in week 17, I wouldn't be like, "Ah, four four spots wasted on tight end." I'd be like, "Oh." Like, McBride
36:57probably has had a good season, so I'm feeling pretty good about the ability to, you know, score really well at the
37:03at that spot. But then I have this out at three stacked tight end outs for another guy to be either hitting my flex
37:11or actually to outscore McBride, who might be like super chalk in the final potentially, the way this stuff happens, you know, McBride might have gotten
37:17everybody there. I've got three other outs as a McBride team to score really well at tight end with my stacked quarterback. Like,
37:26I would love a team like that in the final, you know, like that's that's a It's very easy for me to see how that
37:31team got there and then wins against other teams that have McBride, which, you know, is kind of one of those those
37:37needles you have to thread in in BBM. Or in the Big Dog, it's a 10-team final, so it's a little bit less
37:43you're a little bit less concerned about that. But but again, you've got three stacked outs at tight end to score really well with one of those guys plus
37:51an elite tight end. Like, that's a fun build to me. I know it's not the most conventional, but it's actually not
37:57a hard one for me to wrap my head around. And I love that weekly winners idea. I hadn't I hadn't thought through
38:01it like that. I'm like, you're living in a world where all this stuff goes right for this team, but actually the
38:07touchdowns go to this guy, not this other guy drafted first.
38:10>> [snorts] >> Yep.
38:13Um all right.
38:18Let's see.
38:24Someone uh Okay, I don't know what that meant. Uh Do you even have a take on Tyreek Hill?
38:30Someone's saying you had a strongly held take on Tyreek Hill.
38:33>> I think you're mistaking me with some other human.
38:36If you have a >> I think you're mistaken. I don't know.
38:39That's a different player.
38:40>> [laughter] >> Yeah. I'm not I've not been I have zero Tyreek Hill, so it's probably not me.
38:46And I think you have zero Tyreek Hill, so it's probably not you who is on me.
38:50We should have Tyreek Hill the side of the of a conversation. [snorts] >> Yeah.
38:57Um Is the sidekick that you guys use the same one as we use, or does ours have more sims?
39:05>> It's the same. It's a little bit slower, >> [laughter] >> unfortunately. I mean, so it's like uh it it it hits the same stuff. It just
39:14isn't on all the time, so it sometimes takes some time to turn on in the morning. Uh and it has some like
39:18diagnostic logging in stuff in it so that we can find bugs in our stuff. But I mean, it's the everything is the same
39:24otherwise. It would not be very good. Uh the number of sims like is an an intentional value. Somebody asked me this, I think it was on
39:34after dark or something like that. Is it that is an there's a a correct value for these things, right? It is you can
39:39determine what the right value of stuff is. And so adding more uh to something doesn't necessarily make it better given what you're trying to do with it. So
39:49like there is everything in the sidekick is correct, and so I wouldn't want to change it purely for the sake of of whatever.
39:56>> Right.
39:58Um Even people who have the kick can't help themselves from IQ being at least one or two picks. I'm assuming not here. As you
40:05you will have noticed, I've taken the top click every single time.
40:10Um and uh So in this case, no. But I do think yes, there's there's a good amount of IQ being going on in the streets. We also
40:17have the ability to upload custom rankings, which would give you know, some Side Kick users uh a different set of of teams, you
40:25know, or sort of um you know, it would mix up the players that they're seeing more from the the default uh Side Kick recommendations
40:34uh very very much intentionally.
40:36Um but yeah, I think I I I do some IQ being more around like players that I'm like, yeah, I kind of want to get a little
40:44leeway response on this guy. Uh >> [laughter] >> I want to I want to I want to go a little over
40:48what I you know, maybe the correct thing to do is, but I'm feeling feeling frisky.
40:53Um and then finding spots where it's like, hey, this guy's got two quarterbacks. I think I can push a quarterback around here.
40:59I'm pretty sure I want I just want one quarterback in this spot.
41:04Sometimes I won't do that because I'm like, I'm not sure that it's the best move here. Might actually just go quarterback quarterback. And so,
41:11you know, if I take a receiver here, I'm actually pushing myself off the the better build. But if I feel confident
41:17that I can kind of push a guy around and that um I only want like one quarterback there, then then that's another kind of
41:24prime spot.
41:25And then a guy that you think you can literally just get later is another another way to do that. Um And then also like if you disagree with
41:33us about a player and IQ be to a different player, like you'll still the Side Kick doesn't like throw a fit,
41:38doesn't turn off. So, you can kind of you can build from there going forward.
41:41And just like you're just betting we're wrong on that player, which we could be.
41:46So, I think that's you know, another way to use the Side Kick if you you just have some pretty big disagreements in
41:51certain spots with us.
41:53Um in some cases, I think that might be better than upload custom rankings if it's more about like, hey, there's like
41:59three dudes who I think you guys are just way off on.
42:04>> Yeah, I don't do that. I just click the top of it.
42:07>> [laughter] >> You know.
42:10>> Uh all right.
42:13So, this build so far is not the typical build. And Shady, how many times have I said, "When we get to
42:19August, we might be building some different teams." It's a bit of a different team. This is a fun one.
42:24Uh we're about to be through round 11, and I have two running backs right now.
42:28I'm about to have my third here. Chuba Hubbard falls all the way to 119, an ADP of 195. The people are out on Chuba. I
42:36mean, I'm kind of out on Chuba where he was going.
42:40But, uh getting him at 119 feels pretty good as my running back three.
42:44Sidekick's not panicking at running back. Dalton Kincaid pops up as the top guy. So, we're at 1 3 6 1 through
42:5311 rounds. That's uh Patrick Mahomes a quarterback stacked with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
42:59Sidekick will stack sometimes as much as people get a little bit, um you know, worried about not always stacking. And then, Bijan Robinson,
43:09David Montgomery, Chuba Hubbard at running back, Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Mecole Hardman, Xavier Worthy at receiver, and then
43:17Dalton Kincaid as the tight end one.
43:21Kelce was off the board.
43:23I assume he would have been the pick over Kincaid there, but didn't didn't see where he was when he went.
43:32Uh how do you determine which camp drumbeats you follow? Seems like Leg Up has gone hard for guys like Jacoby, Marshawn Lloyd, and Charlie Kolar, but
43:38resist the drumbeat for guys like Terrance Ferguson and Parker Washington.
43:42This is a great question. Uh and I would say we have moved on all of these players.
43:49Um what you probably are feeling the most is that T Ferg and Parker Washington have also moved up
43:59um in the ADP. T Ferg I got to T Ferg will float around in the sidekick. He's just not the top recommendation a ton,
44:08but I have taken him as the top recommendation uh on occasion, but he's moved up a lot in ADP since, you know, the first like
44:16our skepticism uh has waned, but he's up to 170 now.
44:22So, that's it it it's like one of those things where yes, we get more bullish, but if the market also then in turn gets
44:29more bullish, then he's flipped AJ Barner. Like AJ Barner's a starting tight end. You know, like there's there's a threat to that potentially
44:38with his Elijah Arroyo. He could he could, you know, become a thorn in Barner's side.
44:44You know, it's not like Barner's a smash. I think he's a good pick, but it's not like, you know, how could
44:49anyone flip him?
44:51But yeah, I mean Ferguson today they were talking about, you know, it's the tight end committee that he's probably going to have the most
44:58production of their tight ends.
45:00I'm like, all right, cool.
45:04That seems like maybe a guy that would be a good pick in the 180s.
45:08Um and when he is in the 180s, we're starting to see him now. So, it's it's really about like we're pricing these
45:14guys based on what's happening. We're not ignoring stuff.
45:18Um we might not see it exactly as the market does all the time, but but you know, Parker Washington, we're seeing some in the
45:26sixth round.
45:27Um but Parker Washington went Yeah, he went 512.
45:33We were on the other side of the board, maybe I let's see. Tate was there, we probably would have seen Tate over him. We
45:38probably have seen Henderson over him.
45:40Um but had he made it to the 604 or something, I I would bet that he would have been the top recommendation there. And he
45:48wouldn't have been 3 weeks ago.
45:51So, we are moving on a variety of players.
45:55Um it's kind of like how big a difference do we have with the market, and then how big a difference is there
46:01between moving up a round? Like for Jacoby Lane, very little difference.
46:06Cuz you're moving up from the final rounds to the 14th or whatever.
46:10Uh Parker Washington, these guys have a little bit more room to They have more There's more opportunity cost in the range where they
46:19go.
46:21>> I guess that it's hard to come up like Neighbors was an example where it's very easy to come up very quickly on, right?
46:27Like the thing that was that you could observe is like a factual oh, he's he's going to be ready to play much sooner
46:33than we thought. Like that is a quick thing that if you were behind or ahead of, you can change. It's a lot harder to
46:38catch up on news that is um It's bullish, but like it's not doesn't completely refute any of your priors,
46:48right? Like it is even everyone who thought he was good is not going to think he's the same amount better than you thought because it's not
46:55like a factual yes no thing that could have changed, right?
46:58And so bull news raises all boats and some boats were just ahead of the water on some [ __ ] analogy.
47:07>> [laughter] >> Yeah, well, that's I think that's the what's happening with Ferguson and Parkinson to a degree is that any stuff that's
47:18Like I'm wondering if now we'll get more Parkin or more more Parker Washington in the next week than we have to date
47:27because we have we're not real concerned about this minor injury that he has he's not practicing with, but it potentially could cool down some of the hype. Brian
47:35Thomas has apparently looked awesome and you know, was peppered today what with Parker Washington out.
47:42Uh and so like maybe I'm just completely speculating, but maybe Parker Washington's rise kind of stalls out a little bit and he does
47:53end up at the 603 604 a bit more often and we're that's seems to be the line where he he does
48:01not always but tends to pop up as the top recommendation. So, if that happens then you know, we'll we'll get more. If it
48:10doesn't and he keeps rising like you know, it's like kind of tough to endlessly chase a guy up and that that's not really what this process
48:19leads you to do.
48:21You know, just kind of go, well, I I need this guy and this is the price. So, I'm just going to have to pay it. Like
48:27that's not really what we find the sidekick recommending.
48:34Um but yeah, I mean Terrance Ferguson like he's risen up but not to a rate that's like egregious. I mean, he's
48:40similar to Jacoby Lane and MarShawn Lloyd in terms of the rise and so East of Ethan is correct here that like
48:49we're different on T Ferg than we are on those guys. That's Parker Washington's a little bit you know, diff completely in part of the
48:55draft.
48:56But Ferguson isn't and we don't like him as much as we like Jacoby Lane and Kolar well the Kolar hasn't really risen. But
49:03Jacoby and Lane Jacoby Lane and MarShawn Lloyd, sorry.
49:07Um and I would just say I think we we believe we do believe more in like Jacoby Lane's potential as the wide
49:16receiver two with Lamar Jackson versus Terrance Ferguson who I think even Bulls admit he's he's in a committee as the tight end and fighting
49:23to be the number three target in LA.
49:25So, um some of it is that I think the T Ferg stuff is a is just a little frothy.
49:31Um but I have I do have some exposure now.
49:36Uh you know, if he were to be at the 1702 I bet we'd take him.
49:40>> [laughter] >> You know.
49:42We'll see. Oh, here we go. Look at this.
49:45He's popping up right now.
49:47He's top guy right now.
49:49Sidekick's helping me out.
49:51We're not we're not just glued to the priors, okay? The guy falls Uh he hasn't been falling.
49:59Look at this.
50:01I'm putting him in the queue.
50:04Ahead of Dalton Schultz, who's stacked.
50:08There you go. We don't hate everyone.
50:11The guys we don't take, we don't hate.
50:12We just We just think the prices are bad.
50:15Uh All right, Terrance Ferguson.
50:18Come on down.
50:30Any thoughts on combo frequencies?
50:33Do the sims take into account combo frequencies?
50:36>> So in the sense of like a contest sim, yes. Um but not in the sense of like what you need to win, but not in the
50:44sense of what combos you already have.
50:47Um it what we do So the process of generating the right diversity is a generative process. So that's why the ranks are diff like the top the
50:58dynamic rankings are different even if you have the exact same draft through um So at number picks, you'll see different picks there, and that's how you build
51:06out diverse diverse combos of players while still picking the right players given the cost at a rate that makes sense. Um and so we
51:14don't take into account your current portfolio. Um we only You would have In order to do that correctly, like you have to model
51:23exactly the draft that you drafted every draft every team in to know what it's how if it can get out of that pod and
51:29things like that, which is just like doable, but not something that anyone wants to pay for. And so we do it in a
51:35way that is sort of future-proof, and so it's generative. It says you're drafting this team in this thing, you should do
51:41it correct. Um and it builds out the right portfolio sort of back to front rather than having to look backwards to figure out what to
51:48do.
51:50>> Yeah, and this is this kind of goes to this question. I'm not a data guy, but is there a way for the sidekick to be
51:54able to look at individual draft rooms?
51:55I mean, some teams are quote dead to lose uh to worry about, but blocking teams next to you on turns, etc.
52:03That is not the way it's built, but yeah.
52:06>> It is designed to get you out of a typical room. Uh designed to to model around a typical room the way the drafts
52:12will play out um for the the specific drafts you're in.
52:15>> We know who's been drafted, but but not the teams that have been constructed with those players. Other >> Yeah, so if you were in a room where
52:21like somehow every team punted in some way that was like respected ADP, but somehow they were all So, well, I know
52:28what like if you were like in a colluding room >> collective group of players drafted made sense, but each individual team was dog
52:34>> dead. Yeah, so it wouldn't know that you were all in a team where like you were or in a room where you were guaranteed
52:38to advance because we don't send that out. Um and if it did, I'd hope that draft would get thrown out because it
52:42sounds a lot like collusion.
52:44>> [laughter] >> But uh the yeah, it it costs a lot of it would cost a lot of money to send out
52:5112 teams in a draft rather you know, you'd have to be 12 times as much as you do for the sidekick is the answer. And I
52:55don't think people are out here looking to pay 6K a year for a sidekick right now. Um so, that is a
53:02pretty high-level way of understanding it.
53:07>> [snorts] >> Yep.
53:08>> Cuz we'd have to do the same thing we do for your team for every other team in the draft to figure out what they might
53:11build to figure out what could advance.
53:14>> Yep. Yep.
53:16Uh on the year two running back article, is there a difference between Chase Brown's year two profile that was effectively based off one 80-yard run and Brooks's
53:23year three profile that is based off college? I still do think that Brooks's college profile matters, especially just, you know, in the sense of
53:31understanding like who he was as a player, like what kind of the archetype stuff.
53:35Um but I think it's good to be healthy in the end, you know, I'd rather a guy stay healthy um as a rookie and then be able to slot
53:44right in.
53:45Um So, yeah, I mean I think the Brooks stuff does come with some risk, obviously.
53:54Uh we're kind of following the Panthers lead on Brooks, I would say. Like they have been pretty clear about the idea that he can start for them this
54:07year and that seems to be kind of what they're thinking will happen at this point. So, uh yeah, I mean I think Brooks is a
54:15pretty pretty decent pick in the seventh still.
54:18Like 703, you took him here.
54:22But I think that's good.
54:24Um obviously it's not as good as it was.
54:27But uh I'm I have not been out at that price.
54:31I don't think he's a jam at that price, but you know, I still think he's in the mix and you didn't have a tight end or
54:37you didn't have a running back two um until you took Brooks. So, made a lot of sense for the team to grab a running
54:43back there.
54:44I'm still good with that. Obviously we have Hubbard here who was top guy in the Sims and at 119, I start to think about stuff like Brooks
54:53has never played. This guy tore his ACL a couple times. What if he doesn't have any juice?
54:59You know, he's he's idiots are drafting Brooks in the seventh. I'm getting Chuba in the 10th.
55:04You know?
55:05So, you know, these teams a team of mine. If I win, it's going to be because of one team one, not because of my
55:11portfolio. So, give me a good price on Chuba, I'll take that, too.
55:15Uh have you gotten a chance to take it to make it to Del Mar racetrack yet? I have.
55:22Christian Helmers and I met up there last summer, I think.
55:27Um but we don't really have seasons here. So, it's hard. I'm not sure exactly when it was. But we were all we were there. We
55:33didn't bet on any horses. We went and looked at the horses and we talked about which horses would win. And then the
55:38race started.
55:40And then we did that like four more times until [laughter] all the races were done.
55:47And I was like, are we going to bet on anything or not? Okay.
55:51Uh it was it was actually it was quite a bit of fun. He was kind of talking me through his his process.
55:55Um All right, let's see.
56:04It's a more tight end talk is there's the tight ends don't have upside and stuff. And then I think this is a good
56:08point. We've seen tight ends carry teams to the BBM finals and then another TE wins it repeatedly. For Reed had Laporta
56:14but one with Juwan. Sherman had Kittle but one with Loveland after Kittle went down.
56:19Uh the Liam's team was not an Andrews team.
56:24Andrews was like almost required. Uh so yeah.
56:29Can you speak on the different ADP for weekly winners? I mean it's a different contest so it will have different ADP.
56:35They're different drafts that yield different ADP.
56:39I think you know, on the idea of ADP, I respect ADP in weekly winners quite a bit less because the sidekick tells me to.
56:48Um you know, I'm I'm like, yeah. We you you build teams that are kind of more specifically built around a certain set of outcomes for a week not
56:57just like I need to I need to do I know I need to do this and then this and then that. No, I just need to like I'm
57:02picking week seven basically or I'm you know, uh I'm kind of narrowing down when the uh the best weeks for this team might be
57:10and I'm building specifically for that set. So, you get a little bit more specific and you you reach more in weekly winners generally.
57:19Uh Your sidekick does not appear to be the same since it has taken a bunch of wide receivers. What have you done with the
57:28sidekick? And why is it drafting like a 2025 Best Ball bro?
57:32But speaking of, I'm on the clock.
57:36And I'm I am taking a fourth tight end.
57:38So, the sidekick is not broken.
57:43Although I do I do want to check the Theo Johnson. I haven't literally haven't drafted all summer, but uh here we are. Theo Johnson, the final
57:52pick.
57:53And yeah, I mean, I think the the builds are a little different than than uh they've been at times where we we have
58:05what? Dylan Sampson, Keaton Allen, Caleb Douglas, Theo Johnson, Alfonzo Williams.
58:09Still have these later tight end builds.
58:12Uh took four tight ends, but starting in the 11th.
58:14Um and yeah, grabbed six wide receivers through the first nine rounds with two running backs through the first four.
58:24I think it's a pretty fun build.
58:26Getting the Chuba fall really helped. Uh but the final team is Patrick Mahomes and CJ Stroud with Bijan Robinson, David Montgomery,
58:36Chuba Hubbard, Dylan Sampson, and Keaton Allen at running back.
58:39Obviously Montgomery there with Stroud.
58:41And then Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice stacked with Mahomes, Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, Mecole Hardman, Xavier Worthy stacked with Mahomes.
58:48Uh and Caleb Douglas at receiver.
58:50Dalton Kincaid, Kenyatta Sadiq, Terrance Ferguson, and Theo Johnson at tight end.
58:59Uh oh, this is the Davis kick. This is not the Davis kick. This is the leg up sidekick with the default
59:06uh recommendations. However, we do agree with Davis that Mahomes is a good pick this year.
59:13Mahomes' ADP doesn't seem to be moving even though he was initially priced as possibly missing time to start the season. Are we just going to have 35% of
59:19him?
59:20Let me ask you, Shady, like on like kind of a more high-level question here, like what are your thoughts on situations
59:26like this where like we are jamming a guy, we think he's a value even with the potential for him to miss
59:34time which we did have baked in, and then it's like very clear he's not going to miss time and the price doesn't
59:38change, and now we're jamming even more. Like do you from a kind of diversification perspective or just like kind of the
59:48you know, the way you're trying to build teams over the course of a large time window, how do you think about a kind of a
59:56a dynamic like the one we've gotten with Mahomes?
59:59>> Um other than being super happy that I can still slam Mahomes and make more money on it. Uh I think the
60:06>> [laughter] >> like the I wouldn't be concerned about it until I was like getting 80% or something of a
60:15player if we were like truly believed in them. Like there's um like I'll have DFS slates with 95% of a player, right? But usually the field has
60:26like 90% of that same player. But that like I'm still locking up like if that player gets injured in a way that sports
60:32people can, like that that money's gone >> [laughter] >> in the same way it is for any other reason. And so
60:39it's like this is a pricing inefficiency and I think that's something that you want to hammer. Uh and if the market isn't going
60:47to come to it, then that's okay. It may be like it you should think more about your positions and be like
60:54let's go double check or we but as soon as you trust your inputs and you're like this is it, then you know, if there's no one else around
61:02it that's good, you're going to get a lot.
61:04>> [snorts] >> Yeah, and I think for me with this is a spot where you know, Mahomes we've been way ahead of the market on
61:16the entire summer and it does it is a a reason for us to like check, you know, are we are we sure? Are we you
61:26know, do we have everything in here correctly?
61:28But assuming that that is we we come up with like yes or even no, but like we were pretty close, you know, like we're not
61:37like completely missing the point here.
61:39You know, maybe maybe yeah, maybe we're we're a a little hot here or whatever.
61:45You make those adjustments and we sim it all out and it's like yep, Mahomes is a jam here, take him. I'm taking him. I'm
61:52taking him. Like this is how we make money in these types of contests, right?
61:55Is you find the inefficiencies and you you put those guys on your team. Like that's kind of the point. So, I I'm taking him,
62:04you know, I have a lot of my homes. I think Mahomes is if not my highest drafted player overall but but very high
62:11but very close to to being the highest drafted guy. Um I don't think he is actually but I think he's like second or third and
62:19I feel really really good about that. I feel great about getting him super cheap before Sammy Watkins used to be even
62:25cheaper. You could you know, getting that stack was was really easy.
62:28Uh yeah, I I there is a risk tolerance element where you get up into the the mid-30s that that does start to be where I'm like uh,
62:38you know, even great picks get hurt. So there's a the kind of limit to how much exposure to any single player I I really
62:45want to have but that's kind of a personal risk tolerance thing.
62:48Um what are the other things >> The things I look at is like I have um 30% of him by
62:58exposure but a much lower percent by fees which means he's harder like sharper rooms are making it harder for me to get him and so that is a decent
63:08indication that like on average like the same way in DFS if I am in a contest like obviously there's different same size contest same
63:15structure and the higher buying has this a I'm closer to like beating that like that is a signal that like higher
63:22ownership indicates that that player is probably those deltas go that way sharper players are letting you get more of that less of that player.
63:29You're probably directionally correct in having more than you should.
63:33And so that is you know if sometimes it's skewed by like one drafter who like >> [laughter] >> Right.
63:38>> takes one player and spams it in all the rooms but like in general like that's a good way to sanity check if you have
63:42access to a bunch of different stakes and the sharper rooms are letting you get less of a player. Um >> Yeah.
63:50I used your first best ball tool to help me chop the Jennings Super Bowl along with a bunch of other peeps but still
63:55decent money.
63:56How is it advanced?
63:57If I get it now does it consider my portfolio? So let's answer that how did it how's it advanced? Because that was if people
64:04aren't familiar we we did a best ball tool for what the 2022 playoff season which ended up being a Chiefs 49ers
64:13Super Bowl. Jauan Jennings was like kind of needed there. I think he threw for a touchdown and caught a touchdown. Um and
64:21was sort of a mean of like what the way we were building teams you were you were getting Jauan Jennings on these 49ers
64:28builds um because you do in fact want teams that have live players in the Super Bowl in playoff best ball the way that format works and
64:39he was the wide receiver three on the 49ers and available at the end of draft. So that the way that tool worked is we had
64:46a separate uh like our built tool that you put in who you had taken and then it would spit out uh the
64:55recommendations based on uh an algorithm.
65:00Uh I would say we've advanced a lot since then >> [laughter] >> in a number of ways.
65:05Uh one you don't have to put in your picks it just knows who you took cuz uh we have an extension now. But I think uh
65:12more uh importantly the entire process that drives which players being recommended has changed as well, which is where Shady's math comes in.
65:25Would you say you're doing a little bit more nuanced stuff >> I mean, yeah, a little bit different than what you guys threw together
65:32and some really interestingly written um our video scripts.
65:38>> It's [laughter] a little We've evolved a little since then.
65:41>> Uh to answer the second question, if you get it now, it does not consider your portfolio. Though we have tools as as we
65:48showed at the top of the stream um to help you do that, but the the way the sidekick diversification element works
65:56is it's uh it's it's helping you diversify from that point going forward rather than diversifying based on what you have done
66:04to date. So, that would be a potential reason as well to to IKB if you're like sidekick's recommending this receiver as part of like five receivers at the
66:15very top and I've got like 30% of this guy and I feel worse about it than when I was clicking him before. I want to
66:20take this other guy who I don't have much of.
66:22Um we have a uh as you can see on the screen, we've got the exposure listed right here. So, that is uh designed to help you make
66:31those choices when you're drafting teams.
66:35>> Yeah, and I also like one of the benefits of it not looking at your thing is it like you don't have to
66:42it doesn't make the combos matter like the rest of the draft. So, like if somebody gets injured early, like it's still working to build
66:51you correct teams and it's not trying to like account for you know, Jacobs being suspended on a lot of your teams that have this other
66:57player and so like you actually think you have more dollar exposures on good teams, but they're actually all kind of bad teams now based on what's happened
67:02in the off season.
67:04Um I do do some of the I think I mentioned this like the 555 just has a different ADPs. So, there'll
67:10be like I What I do today, I took Bowers ahead of um AJ in a 555 because I have triple
67:22the AJ ground exposure that I give Bowers. And those guys flip each other a lot and it's just like there's a guy in
67:27the 555s who autos Bowers and McBride on the entire right side of the board. And so, when I get a chance to grab Bowers
67:33at costs like I want I want to be in the future.
67:36Like I I don't want to have a different seed for the Sims to be the reason I didn't get my Bowers share in the 555s.
67:42So, I'll do that sometimes, but I There aren't There aren't that many other tournaments uh where someone is in 3% of draft rooms and therefore you
67:52have to deal with it.
67:53>> Yeah.
67:54Do the Sims account for draft percentage as part of the recommendation strategy?
67:57For instance, DeMario Douglas was recommended in the 20th and is probably drafted in only two to three percent of drafts.
68:04>> Uh So, this falls at like there are lots of things we account for in the contest Sims uh and they account for everything that
68:12you that I believe is important to be there.
68:16Um and so that I Yeah, the this bucket of things that is probably in there, but if I were to specify which things I thought were
68:25important and which things I thought were not important. Um I would have done a lot of work for a bunch of people who try to replicate the
68:31sidekick. So, they need to figure out exactly which things need to model with which fidelity if they want to do it. Um
68:37but everything is important for a contest and the ownership of a player is very important uh and so figuring out what you might be facing in
68:47various stages uh needs to be in there in some degree.
68:53Um We've got some disagreement on the Mahomes stuff. Mahomes is a bad pick this year, many say. Many people are saying.
69:03Mahomes is a bad pick. Nagy is gone.
69:05>> Nagy being gone as a negative is the first time hearing of that. Coming off an ACL won't be rushing at all.
69:11It'll all be K9. Kelce's old. Rice looks washed. He's not a smash.
69:18You know, he's not going where he used to go is what I would say there. So, um you know.
69:26Yeah.
69:27We uh we have a different assessment of the situation.
69:30Uh if injuries blow up the math, how awkward is the off season?
69:38I mean, this is going to be one of those things, right? Injuries do factor in.
69:41You do get shady, you're going to have a lot more slates in DFS than than we get in best ball, you know.
69:46>> Yeah, and the other thing is like uh injuries don't blow up the math, they collapse the the outcomes, right? There
69:54there are futures in which players get injured, right? And so, those existed when you were drafting your other teams. And so, now you just
70:02know which of those teams that happened on. But when you're drafting them, you didn't know. So, the same thing happens during the season, before the season.
70:08And so, like you're still um they change the math going forward, and they would have been great things to have known before they happened.
70:16But again, with time travel, I'd be doing other things other than looking at football injuries in the preseason.
70:22So, uh in the event that I don't have time travel, this is how you do it, right? You build teams uh as best you
70:27can uh knowing that there's an injury probability associated with all sorts of activities between now and the end of week 17. Uh we don't care about week 18
70:38injuries, it turns out. Those don't make us any less money, so those can go wherever they want. But um Thanks to the matter for playoff best
70:45ball, and by then we'll be we're drafting those, but >> Yeah.
70:48>> Uh yeah, so for the regular season, like it's just it is a thing that happens, right? And it is a to some degree, it is
70:53a risk tolerance question. So, if you are uncomfortable having 30% of a player like uh by all means I can be off them sometimes
71:00and still get good teams.
71:01Um but >> Yeah. Yeah.
71:04>> That's not >> think that's where that risk tolerance thing comes in. And and we see different people have kind of different approaches
71:10to that, where like 20% is kind of the max, you know, or 25% or 30% or whatever. I like I people post
71:18screenshots of stuff where they have like 78% of a player. Like, oh, okay.
71:22Like I think I'm get like really hyped about players sometimes, but I don't I've never done that, you know? So, it's
71:30just kind of a a thing where yeah, I mean, if that player like Breece Hall in his rookie season was was in the fifth round and was
71:38arguably like the best pick you could have made in that in that round, but he gets hurt.
71:42Tears his ACL in week seven. And you know, those teams are are not going to win. So, you know, are much much less
71:50likely to win than they would have been.
71:51So, um yeah, I mean, you you do have that completely uncontrol controllable element and yeah, your your best you know, it the extent that you're
72:03worried about injuries messing your stuff up, then you want to you want to keep exposures a little flatter.
72:08Um 68% Elijah Mitchell, lol. So, there you go.
72:13We're we're hoping he stays healthy. Um I mostly just want to bring this up just so it it has a place like to live, you
72:20know, so it doesn't doesn't [laughter] just get lost. Like I want this to, you know, be immortalized in a small way.
72:26Mahomes is closer to Sam Darnold than Lamar Jackson. Uh for our friend DC Fantasy here.
72:32Okay.
72:34We'll see, you know. We'll see.
72:35>> And in drafts, that was a ADP statement.
72:38>> Oh, oh.
72:39>> That that guy's a fan of us. He's on our team.
72:41>> I was tilting. I was tilting cuz I thought he's saying he's closer to Sam Darnold than Lamar >> Darnold. He is, right? He's going closer
72:47to Sam Darnold than Lamar Jackson, which is why we have $40,000.
72:51>> I'm going [laughter] to choose to interpret it. That made me so like righteously angry in a way that felt really good that I'm I'm not going to
73:02The The The downside is that I'm mad at you for no reason, DC Fantasy. It's not your fault.
73:07>> [laughter] >> But I I'm not choosing I'm I'm a Mahomes bull.
73:13>> [laughter] >> Nope, you're not. You hate Mahomes.
73:17>> Go down in history as somebody who hates Mahomes.
73:19>> [laughter] >> And I'm going to I'm going to I'm going to clip this disingenuously and flame you when when Mahomes smashes.
73:26I'm >> [snorts] >> Yeah, I've been spending too much time with Davis, perhaps.
73:30Um Uh missed the first 30 minutes. Did Shady No, I didn't Rick Dizzel asked a question in the Discord or so take a
73:38look at.
73:40Uh All right, here we here we go. Rick Dizzel's question in the Discord was Shady has to do one of the two
73:45in the last BBM draft. You have to take a three ADP spot faller in round three that is not top guy,
73:52a four ADP spot faller in round four that is not top guy, a five ADP spot faller in round five that is not top guy.
74:01So I guess you have to do all three of those things or two, auto draft rounds 16 to 18 off the top of ADP.
74:10So you three ADP fallers corresponding with the round in round three through five or auto draft rounds 16 to 18.
74:18>> Yeah. All right, so the first thing I would do is just draft it normally and ignore the stipulations.
74:25>> [laughter] >> Second thing Second thing I would do is I would do 149 BBM so I didn't have to do a draft with some weird constraints
74:33and be okay that I had 149 instead of 150.
74:36But that is if someone threatened me with a gun and was like, "If you don't do this, like your life is forfeit." I'm
74:41like, "Wow, this is really serious for a best ball thing, but fine, we'll figure it out." I think the first one sounds
74:45better. Like I'm just take Like you would have to let me like remove people with injuries who are falling knives.
74:51If If I can remove falling knives, I would take the ADP fall. Is it ahead of ADP or after ADP?
74:56>> It's It's an ADP faller in all three rounds. It's three spots in round three, four spots in round four, five spots in
75:02round five.
75:03>> Yeah, behind Yeah, I'll take the three the ADP value all the time. The other ones I could just auto draft in the last
75:07three rounds, right?
75:09>> Yeah, I think he's saying you're kind of giving up the potential to build out, you know, the construction that you
75:14want.
75:16>> fallers that are probably likely to be good if I can get rid of the bad ones, and then and then I can build a team
75:22around that.
75:24>> Yeah, I don't I think the one the the biggest risk for me with the first one is that you might end up going like
75:31Allen Lamar, but I don't think you would, the way those guys line up.
75:38>> Well, okay, I'll whatever, I'll have an Allen Lamar team, but I can land a decent version of. Like, that's probably
75:42better than getting stuck with three autos.
75:45>> Yeah, I think you're probably right.
75:46>> Like I I trust the sidekick to figure something viable out from there.
75:50Um Yeah.
75:56>> Uh thoughts on draft like you're right, a question. Has the sidekick changed your thinking on that?
76:04>> I think it has expanded the definition of what being right can mean. I think that it had a very the same way that
76:10like zero RB had a very specific definition. I think drafting like you're right, I think used to mean a very specific set of outcomes you were
76:16playing around based on your team. And I think you still draft like you're right, but now you can play around more
76:21outcomes in which you are right. Like, that's literally what the sidekick does.
76:24It's like drafts like it is right. And so, it's like making you the most money as it goes through. Like, it doesn't
76:29care about doesn't care if you failed, if you got third in your pod or 12th in your pod, cuz you never advance.
76:36So, it is by definition drafting like it was right through all the thing, right?
76:39It is like >> Yeah. Yeah.
76:41>> It is drafting like it's right in that it is making you more money when it has the leverage to do so and then it's it's
76:46not doing that.
76:48>> Are we underestimating Travis Etienne's upside in New Orleans? Kamara's in decline and New Orleans is a fast-paced offense that could put put up put up
76:55points this season.
76:56Um I think we probably are and we've taken uh Etienne a good amount uh since he's fallen to the fourth. We
77:04were not really touching him in the in the early third, some in the late third.
77:08Pretty good amount of him in the fourth now and uh I do think Kamara's in steep decline.
77:16I've been selling pretty hard on the like one-two punch stuff.
77:20Like they made this guy take a pay cut.
77:23You know, they they he was like ready to play and they're like not until you take a pay cut for basically no reason other
77:27than we don't think you're worth the money that you'll get otherwise. Um but yeah, he's like basically a co-starter.
77:33That's totally what's happening. Um so, you know, I think I Etienne is a second contract running back who's never been that good, doesn't
77:42catch a ton of passes, is kind of a boom-bust runner even though he has some explosion and has a guy sharing the backfield with
77:49that's actually been okay at at the goal line even in decline, was awesome at the goal line once upon a time, and catches
77:54passes.
77:55And he's with a second-year quarterback who was pretty good last year but actually not that efficient and ultimately might be a bust. So, there's some real real
78:02fragility to Etienne's profile but I also think he could be like a clear value in the fourth. So, I I do think the market got a little maybe
78:10a little tight on the Etienne bet. I think he's a you know, he's falls falls to the late fourth now.
78:17We take him there.
78:19Um Are there any receivers going around 5 and 6 that you can see being last year Olave or Pickens?
78:29Um Not as much in the sixth, unfortunately, but I do I mean I Watson is a guy I've wanted to get more
78:37of. I think he's a good pick. You take a lot of Tate, which is a different bet than those guys.
78:41Um Yeah, I mean, I think for that kind of like those kind of comps, I would say probably Watson is is
78:52your best bet.
78:54Uh Yeah, I think it's more like the fourth and maybe the early fifth.
79:02Waddle's been I mean, Waddle's been kind of the Pickens comp.
79:05Guy changes teams, gets unlocked. He went in the third in this draft, but you used to be able to get him in the fifth.
79:10So, that would have been my answer 6 weeks ago.
79:16Um Is Cyrus Allen a dumb beat or a drum beat more so in the context of an overexposed dynasty Rashee Rice manager
79:22starting to get nervous? In short, am I jumping the shark for letting Cyrus Allen make me feel even more shaky about
79:27Rice? I don't think you're jumping the shark. Uh one guy that I I would point out like the opposite of the stuff we
79:34talked about earlier with like Parker Washington is that there's some guys that we lower that we still then take.
79:42Um and so, like not we have become a little bit more nervous about Rice. He was still top guy in the third round of
79:49this draft. Um and so, and not like anything crazy, obviously, cuz I just took him at 302, but there is I think a
79:57little bit more risk now with Rice's profile. I think Allen is doing has done enough to He's not It's not a dumb beat.
80:04I think it is a drum beat. It's how much do you want to buy into the drum beat on a guy who's got some real flaws in his
80:08profile, like a lot of them, actually.
80:11Uh and a and a pretty complex offense that guys have started slow in a lot of the time, so um but yeah, from a dynasty
80:17perspective, especially, I think you are not jumping the shark to start to be nervous about Rashee Rice, who is not under contract with the Chiefs after
80:25this season.
80:27Um Marvin Harrison was floated as a potential breakout receiver in the fifth and sixth. In the seventh, I like Harrison.
80:34Uh in the sixth, I like him okay.
80:38All right, question.
80:41>> [laughter] >> Does Does the sidekick Does this Does it hurt the sidekick's feelings if I disregard its advice?
80:48Answer, only when you take Ke'Shawn Sanders. Has that been your experience Shady?
80:54>> Yeah, that seems to be the most painful one. Like the other emotions I wouldn't describe as pain so much as like um
81:03sort of just agnostic apathy towards your general life position once you made those choices, but Ke'Shawn Sanders is the one where it's like actually in pain
81:10and and asking to be turned off.
81:15Yeah.
81:17>> Um why do you say we when drafting?
81:18What's that mean? I don't know. We're all hanging out, so we're drafting together in a way. That's I think that's what you're referring to. Um sometimes I
81:26talk about we meaning like the Leg Up kind of like what we're tending to do at Leg Up.
81:33Uh so that would be That would be the two things. The royal we, yes.
81:36>> [snorts] >> Um All right.
81:41Couple couple questions to close, and then I'm going to head over to ADP chasing. Um do I get 0.5% equity? You do
81:48not, unfortunately. It is more of symbolic. It is very much symbolic.
81:53>> [laughter] >> Uh how do you feel about Tooten? Is he the beginning of the end of the tier running backs? I think he's kind of in
82:00the middle.
82:01Um I think when we were here uh Swift was ahead of him, and then Tooten was next.
82:08And then I think Irving was next after that if I recall correctly. Uh but Tooten will flip Swift. He'll sometimes flip Montgomery.
82:16Um but he's kind of in that mix. He's usually not at the very end of it, and we we remain fairly bullish on Tooten,
82:23especially when you kind of zoom out and think about the whole NFL season and your fact that you're betting on the the talent
82:29and the the versatility of him compared to a guy like Chris Rodriguez who has never caught the ball.
82:35Uh we'll see with this I mean Allen injury as well. I mean that could open up some additional pass-catching opportunity for for Tootin
82:42to start the year if this is anything you know that that causes Allen to miss any time.
82:47Um but I even if he doesn't, I think he's kind of in the in the middle of that pack.
82:53Uh all right, last question Shady. Um not currently a sidekick user, do you have position limits setting on there?
83:00If so, what settings do you set?
83:03>> There are no position limits, so we don't have anything set. There are contest constraints and that you can only have a certain number of
83:09quarterbacks and like like a the max limit on Underdog that you could set those sliders to is actually a a hard constraint and they
83:16won't let you draft more than those. So, those exist as a as a rule in there. Um but we don't there's no option to set something
83:25outside of that.
83:26>> Yeah, I mean additionally like I think some of the this the like we just spent all this time talking about four tight ends. So, it's kind of
83:35like where things are getting pushed a little bit on the the positions. Um this one of the the fun part about the Sims is that we
83:43can kind of get beyond the um the obvious on certain builds. So, uh all right, that'll do it. I'm going to jump over to ADP Chasing over on the
83:52Ship Chasing channel. Hope to see you over there. We're going to be having a DeShawn Stribling debate that might not be
83:59the one you think we're going to have or at least not the debate where you think we're going to be maybe in different
84:05corners than you might expect for this one. So, looking forward to that. Uh and yeah, lots lots more fun stuff over
84:12on ADP Chasing. Thanks for watching.
84:14I'll be back here on Thursday for That's Fair. Um Sam I think is out this week, so I'll I'll work out getting a guest,
84:21but uh we'll we'll still do the show over on Thursday. And uh yeah, until then, have a good one.
84:29I'm nibbling on stribbling.
84:30Pretty good.
84:33>> [laughter]
